'Out of ideas' Putin bombards Ukraine as Russia loses momentum | Russia-Ukraine latest war news

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[00:00:00]I'm Dom Nichols and this is Ukraine the latest. Today, as more civilians across Ukraine are murdered by Russia in the latest mass aerial attack, we look to the US for a response given Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week that Russia planned only to strike Ukrainian decision-making centers. We ask again when the United Nations is going to take a meaningful interest in the war. And we look at the continuing diplomatic spat between Ukraine and Poland. And later we examine possibly the most consequential election for Putin in years. This weekend's contest in Armenia with perhaps a surprising intervention by Donald Trump. It's Tuesday the 2nd of June, 4 years 98 days since the full-scale invasion began.

[00:00:44]Today I'm joined by Telegraph journalist and co-host of Iran, the latest, Venicia Rainey, and our Russia expert, James Kilner. Now the big story today is Russia's attack last night. Russia bombarded Ukraine with a barrage of missiles and drones overnight, killing at least 17 people, injuring nearly a hundred and trapping others. Kev, the central city of the Nipro and the eastern cities of Paltava, Harkke, and Zaparicia were all struck as 73 missiles and 656 drones were fired at targets across the country. Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 40 missiles and 602 drones. As many as eight Zirkcon hypersonic cruise missiles were launched with none intercepted. In total, 30 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and 33 drones struck targets in at least 38 locations across the country. Large explosions were heard and plumes of smoke billowed over high-rise buildings in Kev where four people were killed and 65 others, including children, were wounded, according to the capital's mayor, Vitali Klitschko. One resident, Ola Mudra, standing in front of a destroyed building accompanied by her six-year-old daughter, Natalyia, said, "We couldn't understand what was happening. Some kind of apocalypse.

[00:01:52]Everything was covered with debris.

[00:01:54]Everything in smoke. You could see nothing." A suspected missile strike on a 24-story apartment building triggered a collapse, leaving people trapped under the rubble, Mr. Klitschko said. While a n-story apartment block was, among other buildings set ablaze. A medical center in the Holysivki district in the north of the city was badly damaged. Thousands flooded into the Kev underground system seeking shelter in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Some carrying pets, belongings, and mattresses as the sound of defense systems repelling Russian attacks filled the air. In the central Denipro Petrrosk region, at least six people were killed and 36 others injured after Russian strikes hit the city of Nipro, according to the emergency services there. A second attack as emergency services arrived at the scene killed one rescuer. The Nipro mayor Boris Filov said 49 residential buildings has been damaged with seven practically completely destroyed. He said Russia had used cluster munitions on the city. He suggested in Hark at least 14 people were injured and residential homes, garages, and cars damaged. A two-story residential building and part of a four-story apartment block were damaged with people trapped beneath the rubble of the larger building. Kev had been bracing for another mass attack for days after President Zalinski warned last week that Russia was preparing a renewed assault.

[00:03:10]He had urged people to remain cautious and seek shelter during air raid alerts.

[00:03:14]He reiterated that warning last night ahead of the strikes. You'll remember these warnings follow comments last Monday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov when he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Russia planned to strike Ukrainian decision-making centers. This morning, people are trapped under the rubble of these decision-making centers that were doing a good job of looking exactly like residential accommodation blocks. But yes, Mr. Rubio, let's just nod along to Lavrov. Foreign Minister Andre Cibia said the only reason for the overnight strike was that Putin is a war criminal and a loser who has no cards except terror. Moscow is losing on the battlefield. No number of missiles can change this, he said. Polish and allied aircraft were scrambled to protect NATO airspace. Then in a statement, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense said, "Europe needs its own anti-bballistic defense so that this war can finally be brought to an end, and assistance from the United States in supplying missiles for Patriot systems is absolutely necessary. We are counting on the support of our partners and an effective response to today's attack." Now, responding to these attacks on civilians by a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the UN Secretary General said nothing.

[00:04:25]United Nations Agency UNICEF, however, said, "We are deeply saddened by reports of a three-year-old boy killed in Nipro and 10 children reportedly injured in attacks across Ukraine. Our condolences to all affected. Our teams are on the ground providing urgent assistance. The brutal census devastation of young lives must end. Who conducted the attacks?

[00:04:45]UNICEF? Who is responsible for the brutal senseless devastation of young lives?"

[00:04:51]Now the latest statement and indeed the only statement today from the office of the secretary general is titled secretary general's video message on the release of the world meteorological organization El Nino's update. The lead story on the UN website is about the election today of the next president of the general assembly. It has a hyperlink saying watch the election live. I probably will Mr. Guteras because I'd rather watch that than see more people dragged out of the rubble. Now, these attacks come a day after President Zalinski presented state awards of Ukraine to the people behind Operation Spiderweb, that amazing attack deep across Russia that took place a year ago and destroyed 41 Russian aircraft. The attacks also come in the context of Ukraine's ongoing logistics lockdown with President Zilinski saying in his nightly address last night that Ukraine is now capable of striking virtually all of Moscow's military logistics in the occupied territories, adding there are practically no safe roads left for the occupier in the south and east of our country. Now, we reported yesterday how authorities in occupied Crimea have had to introduce fuel rationing as a result of the Ukrainian attacks and Russia's had to impose bans on exports of aviation fuel and gasoline from their territory. They're also considering a ban on diesel exports. President Zalinski said last night, "For a country that until very recently was called a gas station, losing even this is a major event, a major loss. As of May, nearly 40% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity is offline.

[00:06:16]Now, at this point, it's worth noting two things. First, drones and caliber crews and Iscanda ballistic missiles contain a lot of aluminium. Second, a story from Ireland that's been bubbling along for a while. Top Mikall Martin, the head of the government there, says that sanctioning the Russian-owned company Agenish Aluminina, the only producer of aluminina in Ireland, would cause more harm to the European Union than to Russia. He was responding to calls for the company, or at least the sale of aluminina to Russia, to be sanctioned. Mr. Martin said the county limmerick based company was a vital part of the European supply chain and that its products were designated as critical raw materials for Europe. He said the whole principle of sanctions is that we don't damage ourselves more than Russia or that they don't become self-defeating. It would appear to me that aluminina falls into that category.

[00:07:04]Now the aluminina sent to Russia is used to make aluminium which is then sold to trading company ASK that supplies dozens of Russian arms manufacturers. The Irish Times, which has been excellent at tracking this story, says that for the first three months of this year, 83% of all aluminina exports from the Republic of Ireland, that's just over 200,000 tons, went to Russia. Just 143 tons or 0.6% of the total aluminina exports from the Republic this year went to the EU.

[00:07:34]Those stats don't sit well next to Mr. Martin's claim that sanctioning the firm would cause more harm to the EU than to Russia. Hat tip to the Irish Times. And thanks also to the numerous folk who have been pointing me to that story in recent days. Now, we report on this war every weekday, so sometimes we're a little too close to the news. It's worth occasionally taking a step back a little to take in the broader view. Today is one of those days. On the one hand, we have Ukraine marking Operation Spiderweb, an amazing military strike, and conducting quite an elegant campaign, well thought through and well resourced, in the logistics lockdown.

[00:08:07]Just a day there are more reports of attacks on oil refineries. This time the Ilski refinery in Krasadar Cry. On the other hand we have Russia continuing a blunt one-dimensional series of aerial attacks mostly on civilians. Aside from the morality this speaks volumes about the relative capabilities. Russia can't do anything else. It doesn't have the intellectual military horsepower, the equipment or the leadership to knit together anything more sophisticated than just trying to hammer Ukraine into submission. Putin and his generals are out of ideas. They are not winning this.

[00:08:40]They are going back to what they know best because they are scared and they don't know what else to do. Like any bully who knows their time is up, we should expect them to lash out in other areas like cyber attacks, undersea sabotage, electoral interference in Armenia, a prod at a NATO border perhaps. But don't mistake a breadth of attacks for strength. When asked to characterize where this war is right now, I've said before both sides are losing, but Russia is losing a lot faster. Set against OP spiderweb and the logistics lockdown, last night's attacks show just how much Russia is losing by.

[00:09:14]Now, that's it for the military updates.

[00:09:16]Venicia, welcome back to the pod.

[00:09:18]Delighted to have you uh with us. What have you been looking at on the diplomatic front?

[00:09:21]>> So, the big news today is that Hungary has signaled that it's going to drop its long-standing opposition to Ukraine's bid for EU membership. That's according to Politico. And listeners will know this story very well from this podcast and of course Francis's accent reporting that Hungary's former leader Orban has been um has long opposed Ukraine's accession to the EU. But the new PM Peter Majar has reportedly privately signaled an openness to lifting Hungary's veto. So what's happened?

[00:09:45]Apparently there was a meeting yesterday, Monday, between Ukrainian and Hungarian experts to discuss the issue of minority rights for Hungarians living in Ukraine. This has been a big Orban talking point. there's an 11-point plan that was put forward by him and that MAGA is still pushing forward as well.

[00:09:59]Um, but apparently they found some kind of uh agreement on it. We don't know exactly what, but that means that the process for Ukraine and Muldova's EU membership, those memberships are linked, um, will likely begin on June 15th during a very sexy sounding intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg. Um, that's a few days earlier than previously thought. So, the suggestion is that things are going well. That will be the opening of the first negotiating cluster, which is a formal step on the path to membership.

[00:10:22]But there is another potential spoiler in the offing, and I know you guys mentioned this on yesterday's podcast.

[00:10:26]This one comes from Ukraine ally Poland.

[00:10:29]So, as you were talking about yesterday, there's this row over Zilinsk's decision to name an elite special operations forces unit after the World War II era Heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, UPA. I'm just going to call them UPA from here on. So, it was supposed to be a nice nod to history. In Ukraine, the UPA is seen as an anti-soverviet resistance movement that fought the Russians during and even after World War II. But that's not how they're seen in Poland. They're accused of being behind the Volen massacres of 1943 to 1944, a very painful chapter in Polish Ukrainian history. Tens of thousands of Poles were killed and thousands of Ukrainians were also killed in retaliation. In Poland, this is considered a genocide. So, as you can imagine, the naming of this unit has triggered fury. So, last week, as you discussed, you had the Polish president saying that he would seek to strip Zilinsky of Poland's highest state honor over the decision. But the news today is that a top farright Polish lawmaker has also seized on it. He says Poland should block Ukraine's EU accession over this particular naming.

[00:11:23]He's also suggested that Poland should stop paying for Starlink satellite communication systems used by Ukraine and opt out of EU loans to Keev in order to exert real pressure. Who knows if anything will come of it, but we still have these spoilers in the very long journey for Ukraine to become part of the EU. A story from out on the high seas and related to our reporting yesterday on French forces seizing a tanker part of Russia's shadow fleet.

[00:11:44]There's an interesting story in the FT.

[00:11:46]a row brewing in Denmark over a shipyard that is helping to repair LG tankers that are carrying Russian gas. It's called Fyard and it's the only facility in the EU that's doing this. It services these very specific Ark 7 class icebreaking LNG tankers and they're specially designed to navigate Arctic waters um to carry LG from Novatex Yaml terminal in the northern Siberia part of Russia. Six of the 15 such vessels in operation are apparently going to be getting repairs scheduled this summer at this Danish port. Um, an environmental activist group called Urgavald has said they'll be launching a massive campaign against the yard over the summer when the boats arrive for work. And apparently the Danish government isn't happy either. Now, this is technically legal. Our listeners will know that there are EU restrictions coming up.

[00:12:29]They start in 2027 to ban maritime services for Russian LG tankers, but for now, it is technically allowed. These vessels aren't under sanctions. Last year, Fyard serviced five Russian LG carriers. Um, so there's increasing scrutiny of that particular element. So to the environmental group, are they what are they objecting on on environmental grounds or on >> they are anti- fossil fuels? As far as I can see, they campaign mainly against coal but also oil. I think they probably like to see no liqufied natural gas coming through Danish shipyards.

[00:12:59]>> Okay. All right. I just wonder if they if it was Russia in particular or if it's fossil fuels. Okay.

[00:13:03]>> Bit of both.

[00:13:04]>> Thank you. Yeah. Um, in Russia, um, a military officer accused by Ukraine and Western governments of involvement in atrocities committed in BHA has secured a place on the candidate list for upcoming parliamentary elections. Our listeners probably won't be surprised.

[00:13:17]This is according to United 24 media. He was part of the 76th Guard's Airborne Assault Division deployed to BHA during the opening weeks of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. And according to investigators, he ordered the abduction of a 29-year-old civilian who was detained at a checkpoint. The victim was subjected to prolonged and brutal torture and then shot on his orders. I think related to this, Trump has recently cut um funding for US efforts to investigate war crimes in Ukraine and it's jeopardizing efforts to document Russian atrocities and pursue justice for victims. And that's it for the diplomatic updates.

[00:13:50]>> Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Venicia. Well, let's stick on uh we'll stick in the international sphere. Uh James, delighted to have you you back with us this week. Now, um this is a big week. uh Armenia elections this weekend.

[00:14:04]Um can you bring us up to date on that, please? And in particular, there's been a quite an interesting intervention by Donald Trump that I don't think we were expecting, were we? Welcome, James.

[00:14:14]>> Hi, Dom Vania. Great to see you back in the studio on the Ukrainian latest. Yes, Dom, I think it's remarkable. Uh this is Donald Trump. He came out last Thursday on his personal social media channel and said that um gave this completely unequivocal backing of Nicole Pashinan, the Armenian prime minister. He said, "Nicole completely shares my vision of peace and prosperity for Armenia and the entire South Caucus region. Nicole has my complete and total endorsement for reelection."

[00:14:46]Uh totally unexpected, I would say.

[00:14:48]Obviously, we knew the US was backing the Shinyan, but for uh Trump to make this very, you know, complete intervention is remarkable. It's remarkable that a US president would go so far to back a candidate in a former Soviet uh domestic election is is is quite almost unprecedented, I'd say. Um we've seen new hashtags trending. This is the new MAGA. Make Armenia great again. Uh Trump and Trump and his team are full full square behind Pashinan. It really sets the stage nicely for something we've been talking about for several weeks. Storm. So about this election really being the the new front line of the of the war between the West and Russia for hearts and minds if if you like. It's happening on Sunday. I'm sure lots of viewers and listeners have have blocked this off in their calendar.

[00:15:44]Uh the election is happening on Sunday.

[00:15:46]Results are probably going to come through on Monday morning, Monday lunchtime. Uh very consequential election there. 2 days before Trump gave his endorsement of Pashin, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, US Secretary of State, also flew to Armenia to sign a a deal, something called a cooperation partnership deal. This was an economic deal, a deal for mineral rights, the sort of thing that we know that Trump administration likes to do. Again, another unequivocal endorsement of the Pinian administration. Um, this was the first visit by US Secretary of State to Armenia since 2012. Hillary Clinton was there in 2012 as as US Secretary of State. So, you know, such a huge gap.

[00:16:29]Again, we see the importance that the US and the West is putting on this election. And if uh ju just a quick reminder to to listeners, JD Vance, the US vice president was also in Armenia in February. Uh so a lot of attention in the region from the US uh and Europe. We know the European all the European bigwigs were in Yavan earlier in May for a couple of major conferences, major summits. Uh again often for for many of them for the first time in postsviet Armenia the first time they visited Yalaban. So putting that into context as well this has really all you know totally irritated the Kremlin uh irritated Putin who has once again reiterated he was in Kazakhstan he he re reiterated his warning to Armenia that if they choose the EU option I they vote for Nikico Pashinan the revolutionary leader who who wants to take Armenia towards the EU and away from from Russia if they vote for him then they are tripping dipping these are Putin's words into a Ukraine scenario. So a very serious warning there. He gave that on Friday um after bilateral meetings in Kanistan and and multilateral meetings uh summit lead a summit of members of the Eurasian Economic Union a Kremlin organized economic group.

[00:17:54]>> Couple of questions for you if I may James. Um firstly how's this going to play out in the politics there? But we saw when JD Vance went to Hungary ahead of that election, it really didn't do Victor Orban uh the world of good. So we wonder if uh wonder if if actually having the US take such a such a keen interest in the politics might not actually help Mr. Pashan or perhaps the politics in in the caucuses slightly different from uh from from Europe.

[00:18:21]Question number one. Question number two, I is this how much of this is uh the US administration taking a stance against Russia and the whole spheres of influence argument that you've you've laid out very clearly and how much of it is they've done this mineral deal and the the quip proquo is that Donald Trump comes out in favor of Mr. Pashen. So to take uh the polling question first uh obviously Trump's endorsement of Orban totally failed or was kicked out of power. Um Pashinian is in a slightly different position. The the polling data is actually a bit murky. um International Republican Institute, a US think tanks really done the most accurate polling data and it roughly showed it showed that 61% of Armenians th this came out at the beginning of May so about a month ago 61% 61% of Armenians think the country is heading in the right direction. This is up from about 40% and 62% are actually satisfied with Nicole Pashinan.

[00:19:23]Uh again this is up from about 40% 45% at the end of last year. Pashinan actually has um uh an an image problem that is being exploited by the Kremlin.

[00:19:34]I'll come on to the Kremlin's propaganda efforts in a minute. Um he is like I said the revolutionary leader of of 2018. Uh he his he's he's a journalist and a political activist um who really took a stand against the oligarchical kleptocrat kleptocratic regimes that were running Armenia. um uh were running Amina since the end of the uh collapse of the Soviet Union. Uh his revolutionary threw them out and since then he's he's taken on the judiciary, he's taken on the church and now he's taking on Russia. Um so he's trying to change the mindset of Armenia. Um in his on on his watch they've lost two wars to Aabaijan that has dented his popularity.

[00:20:18]uh the conservative element of of of um Armenian society are also very reticent, very wary of of this revolutionary leader and where they where he might be wanting to take them. His political party, the civil contract party, actually only pled about 32% in IRI's uh polling data um with about 23% undecided and about 20% refusing to say. So, we're not 100% sure that he's going to get the majority he needs. uh the parliamentary system in um in in Armenia needs a majority. If if if he doesn't win the majority, there'll be a second round etc etc. Um but the key bit of data here is Dom that 75% of the people asked by IRI support close closer integration with the EU and that essentially is Pinian's core um um policy. That's it's it's it's a pretty binary choice this election between uh moving towards clo moving closer towards the EU and staying with the um uh the status quo with with with Russia. Armenia to put it into context has been one of the most um uh sort of pro- Kremlin, pro-Russia countries in the former Soviet Union since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. So to see it essentially staging this proxy referendum to join the EU is remarkable and and it's all down to Pashinan the the revolutionary leader. Um your question on on why Trump has come out and so strongly backed Pashinan is is really comes down to what I think uh is the core issue for the West and and for the US here. I think this election is probably the best chance the West has had since the early 1990s to realign these countries, the these quite hardcore former Soviet countries um in in in Russia's so-called near abroad uh to realign their trajectory uh towards the west and and away from the Kremlin.

[00:22:26]If if Armenia votes for Pashinian again or votes for closer integration uh with the EU, I think that effectively sort of undermines perhaps loses the South Caucuses for the Kremlin. I think it would be a major humiliation and a major setback for Putin. I think it would be an indictment sort of a value judgment on being allied with Russia. I think it would undermine his ability to prosecute the war, prosecute the war in Ukraine. I think it' be a distraction on of Russia's resources. Um and um I think basically you will see power eb faster away from Putin um uh with with a loss in Armenia. We already know that Putin's under a lot of pressure inside Russia. And I think if if if if Pashinian wins this election on Sunday and he wins it well, it will further undermine his um his popularity and support inside Russia.

[00:23:24]>> James, what can Russia do about this election? I presume a lot of disinformation, electoral interference, but we throw these these these phrases around. What without actually really drilling down into actually what that looks like on the ground, I mean, what effect can Russia have on the election on Sunday? So the Kremlin has vowed to influence this election and is trying to do exactly that. And I think it's it's focused on three core strategies. It's promoting Putin as the man a strong man of international influence. It's reminding ordinary Armenians of the e of Russia's economic power and it's ramped up a huge disinformation campaign against Bashin. to take the Putin issue first. Um, when he was in China a couple of weeks ago, I think I I was talking about how he, you know, part of his messaging was for Armenians. Here was Putin striding the gray international stage alongside Xi um shaking hands with Xi, making deals with Xi, all this sort of thing. I uh and again, we saw him in Kazakhstan doing this similar sort of playing a similar sort of role, but this time inside the former Soviet Union. I think they're trying to to project Putin and Russia as more stable, stronger partners than the EU and the US. Um, on the economic front, um, Russia's banned various products.

[00:24:44]Suddenly, the the the consumer watchdog, the health authorities in Russia have found various problems with Armenian mineral water, Armenian flowers, brisies, veg, uh, fruit and now also fish. Uh Russia is the is is the huge economic player here. Um uh Armenian imports to Russia really underpin the economy. Putin's also threatened to turn off cheap gas that Russia supplies to to Armenia. So all this will be playing in people's minds as they go to vote in Armenia on Sunday. They'll be they'll be thinking life's going to get more expensive if we move away from from Russia. Uh business is going to get harder. heating my home is going to get um uh you know it's going to go up in price etc etc. So there's that and then also there's this disinformation against Pashinian himself. We again touched on this a couple of weeks ago a week ago where this uh the the these um allegations of Pashin taking magic mushrooms ahead of government meetings and meetings with the media have been touted. There's also been allegations of him running child trafficking networks and uh and sealing illegal real estate deals. All that is nonsense. Uh it's all coming out of um a Kremlin um uh inside the presidential administration uh disinformation unit. So it's been a very aggressive campaign by the Kremlin and um we're going to see more tricks uh you know the last few days ahead of the election. One interesting um tactics the Kremlin has come up with has been quite well reported is they're going to fly.

[00:26:17]There's an estimated 2 million Armenians living in Russia. You can only vote in the election inside Armenia. You can't vote at the Armenian embassy in in Moscow, for example, or a consulate. So, the Kremlin is like laying on free flights to hundreds of thousands of Armenians, which they presume are going to vote in favor of of of retaining ties to Russia. They're going to fly hundreds of thousands of Armenians, effing Armenians living in Russia, back to Armenia just to vote. So, there's a lot going on. Um, Sunday is a very big day for Russia, for Armenia, and for the EU.

[00:26:53]>> Gosh, you wouldn't want any uh any drones to hang a a bit of a right across uh southern Russia, verge into Armenian airspace, and have them close down all the airports, but you know, just just an idea. Uh James, economy, I don't think we're going to talk cucumbers today, but you got some uh got some vodka news to tell us the deeper currents running through Russian society. What have you got for us? Yeah, just to add to the cucumber and lift index, we've now got vodka. Brites are up around 15% this year in the first four four or five months of the year. This is from the Russian media. Obviously, vodka is an important product in Russia. Uh it's an indicator of just where the economy is going. We keep talking about the economy on this podcast because it really is the Achilles heel for for Putin and the Kremlin. Um uh we see an incredibly large amount of headlines both in the west and in English language media and also increasingly in Russian media about how uh the situation is so bad for the Russian economy that Putin is is you know for how much longer can Putin afford to prosecute this war in Ukraine.

[00:27:56]Essentially, the core problem Putin has is that because he refused to call a general mobilization, and I think this is one of the only wars in in in in in modern Russian history where the population hasn't been mobilized. He's he's essentially uh tried to veil the war, keep it disguised from population centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg and said frame it as a special military operation. He's had to essentially pay market prices for soldiers and for people to work in the factories and and for munitions etc. He hasn't just sort of told all all men they have to report to their their local military office. Um and this has made his war very very expensive to prosecute. Um and you know that is coming back to to bite him. Uh we we've got the taxes uh the VAT increases the the emphasis on military um uh production over consumer production. It's all sort of eating away at the economy here.

[00:28:56]Threearters of Russian companies now and this is again from the Russian media are in a bad debt situation. Um that you know that really sums it up. We got retail business owners in Russia again this is from the Russian media saying this is the worst economic crisis in living memory. Um, we've got Bloomberg quoting senior Russian sources saying uh trying to persuade the Kremlin and Putin that the current level of military funding is unaffordable and is literally uh collapsing the economy. And we had also lastly communist party member in in in parliament uh sailing very close into um criticiz potentially criticizing Putin directly. He said neither tanks nor shells have any consumer value. the economy produces them. They cannot cannot be consumed by the population.

[00:29:45]Enough is enough. So, you know, you got people breaking ranks in Russia and it's all coming round back round to the economy.

[00:29:53]>> Fascinating. Thanks, James. Um, right.

[00:29:55]So, we're probably not going to chat to you ahead of Sunday before the election, but do please uh keep us close to that.

[00:30:02]We'll need to uh we'll need to tie in uh early next week when we see the results expecting Monday, are we? Because it's election Sunday, but they're pretty swift. We should get the results on Monday. Is that right?

[00:30:11]>> I I I think so. I'd expect the results on Monday. Yeah. So, yeah, elections on Sunday. Parliamentary system, like I said, needs an outright winner or there'll be a second round. It does favor the incumbent because you need a 5% threshold to get into parliament. Um otherwise, your votes are redistributed.

[00:30:31]So, that does favor Pashinan again. I would expect him to get a majority first time around.

[00:30:38]>> Okay. Thank you. We'll chat next week.

[00:30:40]Um, do hang around if you're able to for uh for final thoughts. Let's turn to those now. Venicia, do you want to kick off, please?

[00:30:46]>> Yeah. Well, I thought I don't come on this podcast often. I'm normally co-hosting. Not >> my fault. It's the other bloke. I keep trying to get you back.

[00:30:53]>> I'm normally co-hosting Iran, the latest, previously Battle Lines, as lots of our listeners know. Um, so I thought I'd talk about some of the ways that the Iran war has affected Ukraine. Um, so there are some positives and there are some negatives. Let's start with the positives. Start with the good news.

[00:31:05]Drones. So obviously in the Iran war, the Iranian shahed drones have played a huge role. And what we've seen is that Ukraine's counter drone expertise has been really highly sought after by the Gulf. Um Zilinski has toured the Gulf quite a few times in recent months. He sent about 200 troops to showcase Ukrainian drone interception technologies. Apparently Ukraine has signed deals with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. They've all been hit by Iranian missiles and drones. This is really good for Ukraine in terms of clout and also in terms of money.

[00:31:32]They've been chasing a lot of these trade deals over drones with America, waiting for things to get signed off.

[00:31:36]So, this is a really good thing. And it also, I think, shifts the perception of Ukraine from just a recipient of aid to part of the military-industrial complex, which we know it already is, but it shifts that international perception. It makes it a player that is able to offer something as well as needs to receive some stuff. And I think finally, Trump rejected Ukraine's offer of help with drone interception technology right at the beginning of the war. So little bit of a finger up to him which I think doesn't hurt. Um secondly I think >> you put it up I suppose.

[00:32:06]>> So I think secondly the world has been quite distracted and personally I feel like this has given Ukraine and feel free to disagree with me but a bit more license to strike deeper into Russia.

[00:32:15]Attention has been focused elsewhere straight of horm and all of that. So Ukraine has been able to sort of really ramp up those sorts of attacks that maybe previously were a little bit voten. There's clearly other stuff going on as well but to me there feels like there's a bit of a link there. Um, and thirdly, in terms of positives, Europe has knitted much more closely together during the course of this Iran war. If there were any doubts over the security of the transatlantic relationship and Trump's commitment to NATO, I think that has received yet more of a battering during the course of this Iran war.

[00:32:42]Trump has repeatedly insulted NATO, its contribution over the years in the Iraq war. Um, and I think Europe really realizes, if they hadn't already, that they can't rely on America. That's good news for Ukraine. that knits it that knits it together with that European security relationship which Ukraine is obviously a key part of to tackle the Russian threat. There are a couple of negatives as well. One is the massive draw down on munitions particularly interceptor missiles which have been sent um heavily to Israel but also Gulf states um and also used by America. That will put a massive crunch further down the line on supply chains. I mean, we know Ukraine is already asking for more than it's able to get, but European countries have reported delays to deliveries of interceptor missiles to them. That will have a knock from the US >> from the US. Yeah. And that will have a knock- on impact on Ukraine further down the line. So, there's going to be there there already is a massive crunch for these sorts of munitions. Takes years to get to produce some of these things like Patriot missiles. So, that's that's going to be a problem. The other thing, of course, is oil. Rising oil prices have obviously helped Russia paired with the softened sanctions particularly re third party buyers like India. That's bad news for Ukraine. So that's definitely helped boost Russia's coffers. Just an example that BBC did some maths on. Um in the third week of the war back in March feels like a million years ago. Crude oil export data suggested that Russian revenues were 2.3 times their December February levels.

[00:34:02]That's a huge boost. But in the following week, as you guys have reported on lots, Ukrainian drone strikes on oil infrastructure reduced Russia's earnings by about $1 billion.

[00:34:12]So eradicated about twothirds of the previous week's gains. That comes and goes, of course, and we'll probably continue to see it come and go, but it gives you a sense of sort of what's at play here. Um, and I think there are well, yeah, pros and cons. I think it's a good thing. I think Zilinski has really taken up he's he's re repeated in case we didn't know it in case the wider world didn't know it his standing on the global stage during this Iran war and shown himself as the leader of a country that has a lot to offer.

[00:34:36]Well, thanks Fenicia. Um, great to have you. Great to have you back. A little Sojourn from Iran latest. Do we say hello to Roland? Tug his little beard for us. Um, James, do you have any final thoughts for us?

[00:34:48]>> Just to take you through very quickly some other bits of news from Russia. Um, FSB there have said that foreign intelligence services are eased dropping on Russian officials through their smartphones.

[00:35:00]Um Putin's popularity is still declining despite um his polling unit, the Kronin polling unit tweaking methodology. We discussed that last week. So last week I said that his popularity gone up after these tweaks. Now it's back down. That really shows how unpopular he he he is becoming in Russia. Uh I think that's very important to track. We had a very interesting story from Hong Kong South Morning uh China Post. um South China Morning Post Robber saying that Trump had asked Xi to um uh pressure or to suggest to Putin when he went to Beijing a few few days after Trump had been there to end the war in Ukraine.

[00:35:44]Obviously that message didn't get through to Putin, but interesting that the South China Morning Post has picked that up and and and ran the story. Um definitely something to watch there. Um, we've got Russia, the Kremlin making more deals with the Taliban and Afghanistan. Uh, we know that the Kremlin is very keen to create more trade routes down to India and Pakistan.

[00:36:05]Um, is, you know, it sees these as vital markets and increasingly closed world.

[00:36:10]Um, and it sees Afghanistan as as as an important part of that trade route. and it's making deals uh not only to import Afghan labor into Russia to to to fill labor shortages but also now to repair old Soviet tanks left over from the Soviet Union's failed invasion in the 1980s of Afghanistan. Um definitely something to watch there. Crimea um annex part of Ukraine is suffering a major fuel crisis as fuel rationing going on there. Um uh petrol purchases are limited at most petrol stations.

[00:36:41]Some petrol stations are closed. This is a seasonal issue but it's also exacerbated by uh these attacks on um Ukrainian uh sorry Russian oil refineries as as Vanisha was saying.

[00:36:53]>> Why so sorry why why is it a seasonal issue James?

[00:36:56]>> It's a seasonal summer issue because uh farmers are using these uh the fuel more heavily particular during the summer seasons and people are traveling basically on holidays uh to the south coast. That's typically what happens in in Russia. It is a seasonal issue. It does happen most well there there is a crunch on petrol supplies most summers um this seems to be worse than usual um there was a similar shortages last year but this does seem to be worse because of the attacks on on on Russian refineries and lastly um Aruna Anna she's an activist in in the in Russia's far east region of Alai she's been in prison for 5 years just for opposing political changes there that would have benefited pro criminal businessmen. Another indicator of just what a dictatorship uh Russian Russia is.

[00:37:48]>> Thanks, James. Uh for my final thoughts, I'd like to point uh folks to the words of Ukrainian writer Divana, who responded to the latest Russian attacks on civilians in a social media post this morning. She said, "This methodology closely mirrors Nazi Germany's deployment of the V1 and V2 ballistic rockets against London and Antwerp between 1944 and 1945. As the German military faced irreversible operational collapse on both fronts, the regime redirected massive technological and economic resources towards supersonic indiscriminate terror weapons aimed at British civilians. The strategic goal was identical. to induce panic, shatter morale, and force a negotiated peace.

[00:38:32]The historical result, however, was the opposite. It merely reinforced the Allied conviction that the regime was a cancer that could not be negotiated with, but had to be completely eradicated.

[00:38:46]James Phoenicia, thanks very much for joining us today, folks. Thanks for sticking with us. We'll be back same time, same place tomorrow. Do hope you can join us.