This analysis is a classic exercise in using technical jargon to rationalize irrational exuberance until the floor falls out. It mistakes historical chart patterns for safety, providing a sophisticated excuse to stay in a bubble that is clearly stretching thin.
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Markets are absolutely insane right now and just when you think things are slowing down Thursday, the shorts get squeezed on Friday and it seems like we have more room to go. Like this is late 1998 rather than peak 2000 with valuations not nearly being as absurd.
Although don't get me started with allirds. The biggest party pooper I can see on the horizon is just the inflation print CPI coming out on Wednesday morning. But honestly, it doesn't seem like markets care too much and understand that AI over the long haul will be deflationary. So, welcome back to the Trade Brigade Weekend Show, where we'll take a look through all of the data points and we'll build a logical trade plan. My name is Matt, and if you're new here, hit the thumbs up button and subscribe. For additional resources, check out the links listed down below in the description, and stay tuned until the end of today's show.
I've got eight additional trade ideas to share with you that you won't want to miss. With that said, let's jump right into the charts. So, we'll kick things off on the spy weekly time frame talking about candle structure and location, as we always do. In terms of structure last week, solid green body bar with a very impressive close from the buyers at the highs of the weekly range and just a little bit of a lower wick, but honestly, it's a solid segue into location on the bar to bar count. You could clearly see that that lower wick where sellers tried to push prices lower. It's just not even close to the previous week's low. So, higher low bar to bar clearly a higher high, brand new all-time high close completely outside of and above the previous week's range.
Very, very strong bar. You'll also notice here that the range of the weekly bar is much greater than the range of the previous two weekly bars. And this is pretty noteworthy, especially remembering what we talked about in last weekend's update. We had talked about the monthly trend line. Starting to see this float around online. Oh my goodness, the monthly trend line's going to cause the market to crash and burn.
My take and you, you know, go back and watch the video. I don't believe in these monthly trend lines, right? I mean, look at what happened right here.
there was just no pullback if you connected to this high. And instead, the market blew through that and then pulled back later. And I think that's the playbook that we might want to pay attention to here. The main reason to bring this up is if we just bring it back down to the weekly chart here for a moment, let's just think about where we're at in the general trend count, right? This is undeniably a huge higher high. And if the market pulls back again, thinking about trend, there's plenty of room for a higher low. Now, please let me be very clear. There's nothing about a strong candle close like that that is immediately indicative that the market's going to turn around, pull back hard, and come back down into the previous all-time highs over the span of the next week's worth of trade. That's not what I'm arguing for. What I'm arguing for is if the market pulls back, I would not be concerned about the trend configuration on the higher time frames.
Just remembering that there's so much room for a higher low anywhere over, you know, we'll use 700 just to call it a round number on the weekly time scale.
It's really like 698, but whatever.
previous all-time high. Plenty of room there. And as we've set this new higher high in the trend count, if you come in here with a Fibonacci, and this is again making the assumption that we're immediately going to pull back and not continue higher. But if we do pull back, the fib 38.2 is perfect confluence as of right now. Right? If this continues to stretch higher, then of course the fib 38.2 will be brought in the upward direction. One thing that we could start to look out for next would just be, okay, does the 20 SMA on the weekly time scale then start to provide confluence around that area as well if the market pulls back? Again, this is making a huge assumption that it is. Again, there's nothing here that would indicate that yet. Uh, you know, no inverted hammer, no large upper wick, none of that. So, in my view, really just paying attention to 700 if a pullback starts to step up.
Let's clear off those fibs. Let's come in here with the anchored VWAPs. I mean, these are going to speak for themselves.
We're above the entirety of the stack.
The only thing that I would just point out, and I'm sure you know where I'm going with this, over the next couple of weeks, the anchored VWAP from the low of the move will start to provide confluence at 700. Right? It's fantastic. So, that's the main watch on the higher time frames. I would be far less interested. I would actually be more concerned if the market does overshoot that on the downside now and pull back into the bottom end of the balance range here, which as we recall is closer about 675. Would really prefer markets did not go to that level.
Considering how uh we've extended to this much higher high at this point, uh it's maybe worth just taking a quick look at. I I mean not for much. But if we just take a look at the volume profile here, the top end of the node, as we know, is just the previous all-time high set. And as we move into blue sky territories, of course, there's no volume to look left at. So, not really much of a useful data point there. What will be useful is dropping it on down to the daily chart. And of course, let's evaluate this week's expected move first. I'm going to leave this zoomed out just because the chart looks so insane at this point. But, uh, we we'll get more granular on the hourly in a second. Here's the expected move for the week. If you're not familiar with expected move, check out the video tutorial in the top right hand corner.
If we're contained by the upper bound, the number is going to be at 748.92.
That of course is a brand new all-time high in the trend count. It's a higher high. That's continuation of the uptrend that we're in. If we're pulling back towards the lower bound and if we're contained by the lower bound of the move, the number is at 72632.
And that of course is going to be a higher low in the trend count. Once again, preserving the fact that buyers are in control. You'll also notice that this is loosely confluence with a gap fill reversal. I will just, you know, now that we've admired the strength of the trend, all zoomed out, I will just take the liberty of zooming into the more recent price action. Maybe something that looks like that perhaps.
That's fine. Let's make this a little easier on the eyes. Um, I think the main thing we just want to talk about is, yeah, the trend is up. This is a soft higher low still. It's very hardressed to call that an hourly downtrend. If you did want to call it that, that's fine.
Generally, it just means that as long as the market's over this level on the daily chart, we're doing fine. That's 71240. It's almost a it's more than a double of an extension through the lower bound of the weekly expected move. I wouldn't forecast that as being the primary outcome for this week, but even if it were to happen, that is room enough for a daily higher low. Right now, let's just talk about this squeeze we mentioned in the intro. Like Thursday, the markets pulled back.
Friday, the market squeezed. There was honestly a reasonable way to get involved short on Thursday. You went look above and fail into blue sky territories. As a matter of fact, let's just go straight to the hourly cuz this chart is so nutty to look at on the daily. you went look above and fail into blue sky territories. You went backside with a lower high flag under VWAP and we'll see this in MU as well. Uh and then you closed weak on that Thursday session. So if you're a stronger seller in this market, what are you really looking for? You're looking for continuation out of Thursday's pullback to probably come in at bare minimum and start to close the gap. What else can we see as it relates to last week? I know we don't oftentimes look back at expected moves, but this was the upper bound of the weekly expected move last week. And so to see the market not stay inside of that range to see the market open higher on Friday and push up and out into blue sky territory. What's going on with shorts? If you're short there, what do you have to do over Thursday's high? You're probably stopping out of those positions. I mean, for goodness sakes, you're absolutely stopping out on an MU. Otherwise, you're probably getting a margin call. And you know, for what it's worth, let's just go there because the memory names have really been driving the market right now. You know, let's even go to a five-minute chart because this is how important this is to understanding the Friday session. Right here it is on Thursday. You can see the rally. It looks over the previous day's high. Let me even throw on a VWAP in here. Let's go with this for a moment and we'll just pull down the volume. So, you could see here on Thursday, look above and fail lower high flag under VWAP. I'm sure people are shorting the breakdown of this flag and looking and saying, "Okay, look at this really weak close on the lows. Inverted hammer, right? projecting the all-time high to open here on Friday. That is 100% short squeeze and beyond in one of the names that has really been a key driving theme for this market. So, the point of the exercise, if we just now go back on over to the S&P 500, is to look over here and say to ourselves, okay, who's having a good time in the market and who's not having a good time? If you've just been long this market, you're having one heck of a time. You're partying like it's 1999 and nothing can possibly go wrong, right?
And if you're trying to pick the top, if you're if you're like, "Okay, I'm going to short this. It worked for a day or two. I'm going to short this. I'm going to go home short." You get pinched on Friday. Shorts are not having a good time. So, if you're not aligning with the participants who are clearly in control of the market, aka buyers, then it's just not it just hasn't been a good time. So, what does that mean? Why do we go through this? It just means if the market pulls back, if we do shake this thing out a little bit, come in underneath that uh lower high from Thursday and close the gap, I'm less interested in trying to short the market here, and I'm way more interested in saying, okay, do we find buyers? Do we accept back inside of Wednesday's range?
And can we navigate back up towards the all-time high? This is just a very simple tactic in markets, right? Using previous areas of resistance as potentially newfound support. So that gap close if the market pulls back is underneath 72775 down to about 725 if we can get here right the riskreward back up to the highs is very straightforward right which makes that an actionable trade you know where you're wrong and you know where you're wrong very quickly and that makes a lot of sense riskreward here it's it's clearly greater than a 2:1 right so I would think that it's worth taking an attempt if the market's just going to be gentle and continue to drift in the upward direction let's not forget I mean there's no signs of a pullback looking imminent. Sellers failed on Thursday. If this thing just kind of like, let's say we look above and fail here, the hourly pulls back. If we support over 73225, consolidate back here and go brigade bolt to new highs.
That's just an hourly uptrend continuing lows, higher lows, higher lows, higher lows. This is technically going to be a higher low as long as we're above once again 73225 and looking for blue sky breakouts, right? So, that's really what I'm focused on over the next little bit in the market here. We could come on in with a Fibonacci over the span of the last uh leg higher. Let's come from the pullback low, the last major hourly higher low up to this high. Just pointing out that the gap fill reversal is over the fib 61.8, but it is technically underneath the 38.2 kind of puts it in no man's land. I would just say as long as we're over the previous double top or you know resistance as we just me made mention at 725. It's a great spot for a daily higher low, right? The hourly trend will flip to down it will satisfy the conditions of a daily higher low. Again, let's just point this out. If we get this and then we break to close the gap from here to here, that is going to be your hourly lower low. Hourly trend is down. When the hourly trend flips back to up, that's where we call this a daily firm.
So, F higher low, right? That is the nature of the beast. Let's quickly hit this with some intraday anchored VWAPs and let's continue along uh through today's analysis. Right? So, when markets get like this, it's really about just understanding what sectors are hot, where is the money leaving, where is the money going? uh sector wise like where's the rotation happening and as of right now it's just like total tech domination software getting some love semiconductors clearly the biggest winner and everything else just kind of taking it easy I'd say financials will be a threat we'll talk about sectors momentarily uh anchored VWAP not Fibonacci anchored VWAP's total support of uh the gap close area here the pullback low is going to be lose confluence depending on time of week with this area around 73225 once again just as as long as we have reference points to risk off of higher lows are the name of the game for continuation of this hourly uptrend.
Where do things become more concerning?
Let me actually just maybe talk about this for a brief moment. Where would I be like, okay, this is like not really the way I would have expected that to play out. Uh if we overshoot this gap lower high underneath, I would expect kind of this maybe we get interaction off the daily 20. Uh let's not fret though. I mean, as we just said on the daily chart, this is still potentially going to be maybe high or low. We'll see. Uh it's hard to say whether or not you want to consider this an hourly downtrend for a daily higher low versus an hourly higher low. I'm a little bit more partial to calling this an hourly higher low and not a firm daily high uh lower daily higher low. My goodness. Uh reason being is that you just you never made an hourly lower or low, right? Low straight up. This is like just pullback.
So this to me is just an hourly higher low, not a daily higher low. Anyways, we could argue all day long about that.
It's the nuance of the market. Those are the levels. Those are the numbers.
That's the way I am thinking about this.
Let's jump on over into our market internals. If you're not familiar with this dashboard, check out the video tutorial in the top righthand corner.
What do we see here? Little bit of slowdown in terms of volume flows on Friday. This is after substantial volume outflows on Thursday. Once again, if we had stronger sellers, that was a pretty decent looking day to maybe take advantage of some bearish action at the exchange level. And on Friday, buyers said, "Nope, we're not going to let it happen. We're just up and off into brand new all-time highs." So, the exchange level still looks good to me. not seeing any red flags. Uh the one, you know, thing to maybe just call out would be that this is maybe healthy for markets to see a little bit of a a sell there instead of just gap and go gap and go gap and go gap and go. It gives the buyers a little chance to reset, reset their breath. Uh and it also just proves to us that stronger sellers aren't stepping up in a material way. You got you have to remember, right, if if sellers are going to step up and actually move the market lower, you're going to need a lot of them. So, okay, volume outflows looked good, but was it really all that substantial in terms of moving markets lower considerably? No.
We didn't even take out the previous day's low. If we go back to the daily chart here for just a second, or you can see it on the hourly, here's Wednesday's low. Here's Thursday's low. So, as much of a pullback as it was, it didn't even take out the prior day's low, right? He made it to like maybe a little bit of an overshoot from halfback, which speaking of, let's go on over to the market profile. You can see it here. Here's uh Wednesday's halfback. There's Thursday's low. It's a poor low. Maybe it needs a little bit of repair. But take a look at what's going on with value generally.
And by the way, if you're not familiar with market profile, check out the video tutorial in the top rightand corner. You see that we've got value here. We've got value here. They're lower in those sessions. Value is lower here in that session. Value is lower mostly overlapping here. Point of control is slightly lower. What do they do with it on Friday? Higher breakaway to the upside. So I will say that it's going to be a little bit easier to topple the session, so to speak. Remember we, you know, kind of use the Jenga analogy.
It's going to be a little easier to topple late buyers from Friday if the market does go look above and fail.
Anything undervalued area low from Friday could start that pull back towards the repair of the Thursday poor low. Just something to carry forward noting that uh again your consolidation did shape up basically on the highs of that session. So new money longs who bought that not really the best location to close out into the week. Let's go back on over to the platform here. Let's go ahead and take a look at the QQQ NASDAQ 100 and see what's going on. I mean, this thing is just absolutely berserk in the upward direction. This is the daily chart. Let's go to the weekly and we'll get to the daily. Don't you worry about that in a second. As we can see on the weekly, let's just hit it with the clean uh moving averages as well. And let's get rid of those corporate actions. That's fine. So, what do we see here? Same concepts. I won't sort of like beat the dead horse too too much. Maybe just a little bit, but solid green bodied bar, strong close at the highs, higher low, higher high, huge expansion of range, massive overshoot of the monthly trend line. If there's going to be a pullback, there's so much room for a higher low at this point. You could probably fish for an arbitrary one, you know, not related to structure.
50% retracement is the previous all-time highs. The fib 38.2 here on the weekly is at 65150. As long as the pullback is over that bull flag consolidation, looking for higher over the span of time. If we go ahead and hit this with the anchored VWAPS, what do we have from this perspective on the Q's? Same commentary as the S&P. This one's actually almost already there at the previous all-time high. would not want to see that over the span of one week.
Again, I would think that there's lower odds of that unless something really really dramatic happens. Uh, who knows?
Maybe Jensen says, "Hey guys, guess what? Nvidia, we've been a fraud this whole time." You know, something like that. Yeah, but I mean, we're we're talking about I just we're not even going to have this conversation. How silly would that be? Uh, QQQ on the volume profile isn't really going to tell us anything new over here either, right? Uh, you know, there's nothing to talk about there. Let's drop it on down to the daily. Let's get back on over to this crazy looking chart. I mean, we're going to have to start committing some chart crimes because I don't know about you, but I can't look at charts that look like this. This is this is not something that my eyes like. So, chart crimes will probably start to have to happen. We're going to do something that looks like this. Uh, we could see this week's expected move in the gray shaded area right here. Upper bound is going to be at 72815. Lower bound's going to be at 69431. Clearly a higher high in the trend count. Clearly a higher low in the trend count. I mean, my goodness, this is like not even revisiting Thursday's lows. It's hardly taking out Friday's lows. Are you kidding me? Uh huge extension through the upper bound of last week's expected move. Could the market cool off and just chill out here?
Of course, that would be welcomed at this point. Uh the higher it goes, we just had this conversation, right? The more parabolic this goes here. Uh not to say that the cues are going to look like car, but if you just go on over to car, you don't want the markets to do this because the aftermath is not pretty.
Again, not saying the cues are car.
Please don't misunderstand what I'm saying. Uh but the analogy is such that what goes straight up oftentimes will have to come straight back down at some point. So we've got some thin structure that exists underneath us. If the daily chart were to pull back, there's so much room for a higher low anywhere over the 20 SMA as it relates to structure. Small little balance in here shaped up. Uh but that was really it. Other than that, we've been vertical. That's going to be at 66455. If we're above that level, the 20 SMA is probably going to beat it into the early stages of this week as it continues higher. um you know, a shakeout, a look below and fail of the 20 SMA wouldn't be unreasonable. If the market does give you a shallower pullback, the gap fill reversal isn't here. We're just going to talk about these references because, you know, again, there's nothing else to do other than look for continuation, gentle higher low pullbacks, inside consolidation, sideways consolidation, and then continuation. So, gap is 68650 down to 683 if you're going to get that one. And again, this would be another beautiful spot for a pullback towards the 20 66450. If we go ahead and throw on the Fibonacci, let's just try the cues from here up to here. Fib 38.2 in the neighborhood of that 66450. How about from this hammer low up to the new high? Gap fill reversal is about the 50% retracement and that is aok. Okay, let's take it on down to the hourly chart.
Once again, same conversation as the S&P 500. You try higher, fail back down into Wednesday's range. That's Wednesday's high in white. And you could say, okay, look, look above and fail at the all-time high. We're going to go home short on Thursday. pain trade on Friday is squeezing you right back out of that trade. Shorts have to stop out over the 700 figure and we're just into blue sky territory. So there's really nothing to say other than once again continuation or consolidation or a higher low. This is fine. This that pulls back and goes like this is fine. This is fine as well to the gap close. Let's maybe go with a double bottom there or something of the sorts. And like heck, you know, is this maybe a lower high on the higher time frames perhaps? Right? something that is uh failing on the on the reattempted gap level there. If you pull back to the 20 and then you start to go sideways, we'll be dealing with that on the weekly chart, on the daily chart as we walk forward. But my goodness, like the market can cool off. This would not be unreasonable. I just don't think that we have strong enough sellers to actually achieve something like that. So, that is what we've got across the cues there. We could, you know, if we really want to hit it with the intraday anchored view apps. Nothing to really glean here other than you're getting some confluence.
you're getting some confluence, you know, same old song and dance. Fire up the Aerosmith on your weekend session.
Let's jump on over to the NASDAQ side of the market internals. What do we have over here? Solid volume inflows back unwinding the outflows from Thursday Friday. You can see the same thing here.
AD line unwinds and the cumulative build a little bit more bearish on Thursday.
Pretty flat on Friday. Uh mostly brought to you by those semiconductors AMD and MU. SanDisk of course squeezing out to new highs. So really strong day on the NQ Friday. Is it getting a little bit narrow? I mean, maybe that's, you know, always been the argument for the bears over the last little bit. I don't really believe um, you know, that the narrow argument should prevent you from taking trades, scalps, longs, uh, intraday swing trades in the right group, in the right theme. Uh, not really enough evidence here at the exchange level that oh my goodness, it's so narrow that we should be looking for the other way.
It's just, you know, it's not the case.
If on Friday we were up like this and yet the volume flows were out, if the AD line was down under a thousand, if the cumulative build was big red, yeah, I'd be say I'd be having a different tone up here. I'd be like, heck no, I'm not buying that. We're not scalping that.
We're not putting on new swing longs.
We're not doing anything up here. We're maybe looking for a look above and fail to uh set the higher low. But that's just not the case, right? Inflows positive, positive. All right, let's keep moving. Let's take a look at the NQ market profile. See what we can glean from this perspective over here. Zooming out a hair. There we go. You'll just notice the same thing. the toppleability, if that's a word, uh the ease of toppling, the ability for buyers to be proven wrong who got involved at the highest high of the trend count in here. All it means is if we do see look above and fail instead of value being situated lower in the profile and we've been saying bullish buffer in the morning sessions, right? Instead of value being situated lower, you know, those buyers start to feel some pain, start to feel some heat as and if we start to break value area low underneath the point of control 293, right? rather than if value was here, buyers were situated on the low. You look above and fail. This is more supportive for a higher low. Right? So that's all we're pointing out. You can see the same kind of interface happening over here on Thursday. Value was lower rather than higher. And instead, right, buyers launched from that point instead of being like, okay, we're breaking down from an elevated value. Let's start to sell it cuz we're underwater, right? All about the inventory positioning of the players. We did not have sellers or excuse me, we did not have buyers feeling this way. Instead, we had sellers feeling this way. uh for anyone who initiated that trade as discussed on MU or whatnot back underneath the Wednesday high. So that is it from a profile perspective for the NQ. Let's jump on into our small cap side of the argument. Let's see what IWWM has for us on a weekly chart. Let's go ahead and hit this with our study set. Thanks as always for bearing with me for just a second as we straighten out the charts.
There we go. And we're moving forward.
You can see a little bit more of an upper wick on the weekly bar here for the IWM. Is it enough to make me like run and duck for cover and say, "Oh my god, the market's going to crash."
Absolutely not. Right. So, a little bit of an upper wick, maybe a little bit more of a pullback opportunity here in small caps, I think. Certainly a little bit of uh pause and hesitation ahead of the CPI print coming out on Wednesday, uh, sorry, Tuesday morning. A little bit of pause there. Not unreasonable.
Obviously, more rate sensitive over here in small caps, but still, I mean, again, I'll I'll beat the dead horse just a little bit. Solid green bodied bar, mostly a close towards the upper third of the weekly range. candle by candle, higher, low, higher, high, candle closed completely above and, you know, outside of prior week's range. There's nothing here that's overly bearish. You could come in here with a Fibonacci, you know, it's a brand new all-time high close as well. Fib from there to here, you could see that your fib 38.2 previous shelf of highs makes total sense around 270 on a pullback there is really strong looking.
If we go ahead and hit this with the anchored VWAPS for the IWM once again over the entirety of the stack and slowly this will provide confluence. So, you know, we'll just go to the volume profile. You can kind of see where we're going with this. Just kind of cruising through the weekly data points. They're all mostly rinse and repeat as the market rips in the upward direction.
Let's take this thing back down to a daily over to the small caps. Weekly expected move. This chart we don't have to commit a crime with. We can at least see the upper bound of the expected move here. 29070 is the upper bound.
Obviously, a higher high in the trend count. Bullish for continuation. And the lower bound is in here at 27764.
That's technically speaking going to be right at the cusp of what I would consider acceptable for a higher low.
Not just because the 20 SMA is going to be confluence, but because it's really the top end of this balance range that we broke out of. You could even call that bull flag, right? We broke out of this bull flag. You really don't want to go any deeper than a retest of the top of the breakout point. Once again, 27764, 27750, 2775.
That is the spot right here for the daily higher low to be the best looking chart. Uh if we take a look at the let's zoom in here a little bit. There we go.
Without getting too crazy. It's not quite a chart crime yet. Uh this bearish engulfer on Thursday was a little interesting. Clearly different from the S&P and the NASDAQ. Neither of those two index products took out the previous day's low, whereas the small caps did.
And then of course on Friday, you did not squeeze like you did in the S&P and the NASDAQ. Once again, speaks to a little bit of that breath uh on the breakout here earlier on in the week.
That was a bullish indication for breath, especially this into the end of the week prior as well, indicating, okay, we do have some broadening out of the market rally. It looks like it worked. We pulled back. The heavyweights start to play their game again, right?
And now what we basically want to see, think about this like a rotation, right?
It's like a a game of uh it's really I you could liken the market to a game of chess, possible configurations. Uh if small caps are going to break out, then what does that allow? Right? Think about this logically. If small caps break out of this inside bar high into the early stages of next week, let's say CPI is really wellreceived instead of like cowering the bare fear and like you know obviously the bare headline gets all the clicks and oh my god CPI it's so scary.
What if it's wellreceived and the market rips to the top side? I I mean your heavyweight components will probably perform well anyways. But if the baton gets passed and we get carrying of the market from the broader components like small caps then even if these don't go anywhere you're still you know you should still align with the bull nature of the market there right so to me this is just like total eb and flow give and take give and take possible high or low here for trend continuation not overly concerned with small caps resting bar on the Friday session just an inside day watch its high watch its low it's really as simple as it gets and you know honestly if we take out its low fine you could pull back here still stage your daily higher low and continue in the upward direction. Your brigade bolt would just like look like this at that point, right? Lows, higher lows. No problemmo. Once again, this is about 27765, 2775. Here we are on the hourly chart. What do we see from this perspective? Nice hourly uptrend still intact. Lows, higher lows. This is a higher low. Uh there's the threat for a lower high. Absolutely have to acknowledge that. Which is why if we do break that low, I would expect this, right? This is where we get hourly downtrend and then if it can reverse back in the upward direction. Remember, this represents an hourly reversal back to up. Then your daily higher lows on the table. You're supporting the 20 and you should be targeting the all-time high, right? Riskreward, pretty straightforward, back in the upward direction. Even if you don't want to trade the IWM product, using this as a tailwind for the S&P 500 makes more sense if this is the configuration we get. I would say if we fail this more miraculously, if the market's doing something like this, yeah, a little bit of a white flag would start to go off.
If the CPI report is the big bear, oh my goodness, Armageddon read that maybe it could be. Yeah, that'd be a little bit more concerning underneath once again that 2776575 area right around in here. That's the big watch for this week for small caps.
We'll hit this with the fibs because why not? Uh we'll come in from this low up to this high. You can see the fib 38.2 kind of loosely at this low. It's where we've bounced from so far. The 61.8 is confluence with the line in the sand, that 277 level we've been talking about.
Let's hit this with the intraday anchored view apps, which will look a little bit different uh than the S&P and NASDAQ. Uh this is still a low pullback.
This is still your gap up, but you'll not just notice that we sort of interacted a little bit more so with this here. So strength of the trend is not as clean. And again, like this is not a shocker considering what happened on Friday versus the S&P and the NASDAQ up here. Correct. So that's what we've got on the IWM. Let's quickly hit the small cap side of the market internals.
Do we have any big red flags over here?
Survey says no. About the same, right?
Especially considering we had the inside day on Friday. Not as concerned with this. Not as concerned with the lack of acceleration there. The volume flows look fine if I'm being honest. So, uh just a resting day. Markets digesting.
Markets are consolidating. That is, you know, perfectly normal and perfectly healthy in a market that's going to have a more sustainable move in the upward direction rather than just like, you know, big move up, but not as sustainable, right? Let's go back on over to the market profile and finish up our small caps with a final look over here. Pretty much just want to get a sense for what is going on with the value area as we finish up the Friday session. Sideways here inside of value from Thursday. I'd say the biggest thing to call forward on the small caps, we talked about this on Wednesday, is just that the Tuesday overnight session is the all-time high. And typically markets will not leave an all-time high from the after hours untested as the true high of any given move. So 2920 in the Russell seemingly needs a little bit of interface. You do have a poor low happening here at the low of day from Thursday. I would say if you're over this mechanical level, it's not really a it's not confluence with like value area. I wouldn't call it, you know, weak or anything of that nature, but it's a little mechanical. CD periods flat across the top. 28.85 over that mark. I would expect 2920s to probably become the target, right? That's naturally a break of the inside candle high anyways that we were just talking about. Really poor low on Friday also. So, how could the configuration go? If you open, wick the low end, come back into range, and then brigade bolt the top. That would be pretty awesome in terms of repair the structure. Leave this unrepaired. That's fine. You don't always have to repair stuff. It just means you watch the level. So repair one of them, come back up, take out the high. Then I would start targeting something like this in terms of the opportunity for continuation of the overall trend. This would really just start looking like a balance range in hindsight, breaking out as a bull flag, right? Let's go back on over the platform here. Let's take a look through our sectors at this point and see what's going on. Where is the money going? You can see here in terms of our performance, let's not overlook the SMH up 10.55%.
Uh certainly a very important risk on component for the market right now.
Semi's on fire still. XLK leads after that 7.88% followed by software 4.49 then MAG 7 ETF up 4.03%.
Totally bullish environment there. Risk on components firing on all cylinders.
Bottom of the barrel is energy utilities. Financials are the concern because they're the second heaviest weight sector by market cap. But look at the difference here. Energy is down 5.16%. Financials down about 1%. Is it good? It's not great. Uh but it's also not the end of the world is I guess what I'm trying to illustrate here. The healthc care sector is also it's not heavyweight or as heavyweight as it used to be, but it is defensive in nature.
Anyways, so not overly concerned with the posture of markets here. Notice that the uh uh the XLY discretionary even beats out XLP here in terms of weekly performance. Staples being a little bit more defensive. Right. Let's check in on the structural charts. Let's just go top down here and it's going to be a pretty quick and easy analysis. All right.
What? So all we'll do here is say what are the possible outcomes? Is there a threat? Continuation sideways pull back for a higher low. Anything goes, right?
Pull back for a higher low. Anything goes. Looks fine. Looks bullish. Do you want new money long exposure on the first time in the history of the ETF that it's 10 times its ATR from the 50 SMA? New money longs at the highs seems like a pretty poor idea. Um, you know, in here you were not quite 10 ATRs from the 50. You were just starting to break out. we consolidate and then you accelerate. So, you know, again, like sideways would be better. Sideways to pullback would be better for new money exposure. It's going over to IGV. This on the other hand looks fantastic. I did pick up some IGV long on the Friday session off the gap fill reversal. I mean, just a beautiful uh little balance range in here that has broken out. and the rotation that we could start to be somewhat aware of right is the money moving out of semiconductors or I shouldn't even say out but some profit taking in semiconductors redeploying over in the software sector and honestly the sub sector of software CIBR cyber security this has kind of been on fire right your crowd strike has been on fire your panw oops if I could get the w in there has been on fire and even your ftnt forinet on the earnings gap up absolute monster here so cyber security seems to be doing really well for that software group. You know, even Oracle, if we just continue to look at some individual names, Oracle has acted quite well uh pushing up and out of this lower bound as well. Wish, you know, good to have some IGV, but would have been better to have some Oracle, some NBIS, uh and maybe even some Crowd Strike. Anyways, moving along. Mag 7 ETF, brand new all-time high here once again. What are the outcomes? Continuation sideways pullback for a higher low over 67. Buyers remain in control. Let's take a look at the SMH. the second time in the recorded history of the ETF. 12 ATRs from the 50 SMA, new money longs. I mean, my goodness, day trades, maybe swing trades, you're just asking for a nasty pullback to get you out of this thing.
Give you a paper cut uh if you're respectful with your stop. If you're not, might not uh go so well. But nonetheless, higher sideways pullback gap fill reversals, fine. Pullback higher low over the breakout point also fine from back over here. these situations totally warranted, you know.
And these pullbacks, by the way, they don't have to be like this, straight back to a new high. They could be like this and then this and then this and then this and then we have 3, four weeks sideways. Then we're up and out out of a new weekly flag, high tight flag on the weekly, right? So, these are things to have in the back of the brain for the SMH XLY. The baton could move over here.
There's room for a higher low. This looks good over the 20 SMA. This looks good up and out over these highs at 12125. And of course, what's the big thing to talk about? Tesla has started to play nicely. As Tesla starts to play nicely, Amazon can take a break. It doesn't have to do all the heavy lifting for the XLY. If this is going to be up and out, great. Markets will remain bullish, right? Rotation there is not going to be the worst thing in the world. If we look at materials, not as compelling. Failed breakout here back at the 20. Uh what's the sort of, you know, give and take though? Yeah, failed breakout, but this is the lightest weight sector. It has the least impact over the S&P 500 index. I mean, this is just the midpoint of the range. Could you still argue for a higher low? Sure.
Could you argue for a lower high? Sure.
I just don't think there's any conversation here, so we'll move along.
We'll save the time. XLP lightweight, defensive anyways. Hasn't really broken out, but it's also in a nice little grinding uptrend. Got to give credit where credit is due. Nice hold over the uh sorry, the 200, the 20, and the 50.
If it pulls back and consolidates, fine.
If it breaks to close the gap above, bullish pressure is bullish pressure.
Moving along to real estate, wealth effect looks great. Lightweight sector.
If it consolidates and goes out, awesome. uh if it comes in underneath 44, weekly higher low over 4270. Fine.
XLI, same thing as XLB. No real commentary over here. This is a little bit heavier weight. It is 8%ish of the S&P 500. So, a little bit more important. Uh but not really doing anything wrong yet. It's just kind of a failed breakout for now sideways. I would say it's doing something wrong when when and if it starts to close this gap below. Right. So, under 16915 would be a small red flag for markets. XLC doesn't look half bad here. Uh, I would certainly just think, and this is one of the things we've talked about over the last couple of weeks, if the XLC can break out, if Meta, for example, can straighten its act out, if we can hear something from Zuckerberg that they're not just burning cash for the sake of like, you know, optimizing their ads, uh, and instead maybe they're selling compute to people, maybe, right? Um, Google is is great here, but certainly could cool off a little bit, right? So, I think Meta is the problem child for the comm sector. Netflix, of course, isn't really helping right now either.
Um, but the chart isn't really doing anything that makes me overly concerned, right? I would say that this to this is a huge higher low over the moving average stack. I am a little weary of this lower high, but just consolidating here would be fine net net for the market overall. So, going over to energy, this again, it looked really good back here. I'll continue to just kind of stay away from energy personally. I don't want to play the game with the headlines on crude oil and everything going on in the Middle East.
So, just going to let this be. It did gap back below the 50 and the 20. It's a lightweight sector. Obviously, you're just going to have to be really sensitive to your headlines. Could we start to get a little head and shoulders? Maybe. Could this be a weekly flag after a monumental breakout? Maybe.
Not really for me. And generally, I don't think it's doing anything wrong for the S&P as a whole. So, that's how I'm going to use it as a gauge for the S&P. If we look at utilities breaking down through the bottom end here, we don't really want to see too too much downward pressure out of utes, but it is a defensive sector here. Uh, so I'm not overly concerned, right? As the market rips to new highs and utilities are coming into a low, that's not really a red flag, right? It would be the other way around. If utilities are pushing the market to a brand new high, tech is weak. Now, all of the sudden your posture is totally backwards. It's probably a short in the market. That's not what we're working with, right?
Let's jump on over to the financial sector. This is probably the biggest red flag in the sectors currently. You're just stacking these lower highs. Could you argue higher low happening here?
Maybe. But I really think the JPM action has been horrible for the market here for financials. Right? If we just jump over there real quick, JP Morgan breaking down to close its gap, losing the 200s, horrible. Visa horrible action post earnings. Mastercard was no better.
Back down here in the balance range.
These are now heavyweight components of the XLF moved over from the XLK a couple years ago. Uh so I mean some select banks, let's not forget about like a Morgan Stanley here looks pretty good.
Look at something like a City Bank doesn't look half bad. Although Friday's session wasn't the greatest, like location-wise is much better. Uh we could look at a GS, a Goldman Sachs looking like it might be ready for an inside day breakout on Monday. Uh generally like some financials look okay, but if we start to lose the big banks, like you know, if those breakouts don't shape up in the upward direction if JP Morgan's a harbinger uh for what's to come, this would maybe put a little bit more pressure on the S&P noting that you're not going to get as much rotation effect. Um so that's the idea. uh you'll know that this day is happening when all of these sectors are red from the open and they are not buying anything. If semiconductors and tech are red and you're not seeing XLF green, then your rotation is not taking place. So, honestly, if you've made it to this point in the video, this is kind of your key for figuring out the day where you do want to be aggressive on intraday shorts versus the days where you do not want to try intraday shorts. If all of this is red, go for it. If you're seeing the XLF green while the XLK is red, the SMH is red and this is like you know a decent amount of hold in the XLF and you know maybe staples are a little bit green over here as well or at least just kind of flat. That is one of those situations where you would not want to be aggressive trying to short that intraday uh in the S&P. If you want to short the NASDAQ then by all means, right? You no financial representation over there uh as it relates to bank exposure, right? So that is the takeaway there. That continues to be kind of the bottom line of the market by the way.
That's what we're watching for day in and day out in the room. As we take a look at the XLV, looks weak to me. Lower highs in here, you know, quasi head and shoulders on the lows. I mean, maybe just a bare flag perhaps. That's fine.
But you go look at something like the XBI and you're like, hang on a second.
This really isn't all that bad. So XBI holding here on Thursday over the previous highs, trying for a higher low, higher low. Is it up and out? TBD. But generally, once again, don't want to get overly concerned about those insurance providers over here uh on XLV that always tend to drag it down a little bit more. So, and honestly, one of the ideas, I'll save it for later, but I'm sure you could figure out where we're going with this uh considering the uh 2020 repeat that's maybe coming up around the corner. Don't want to start to get ahead of myself. Certainly don't want to have the higherups at YouTube uh start to uh I don't know, you got in trouble if you said certain words back in 2020. You're not going to cut my tongue out. XLK, although XLK, what's going on over here? Strong. We know that this continues to look narrow. This continues to be the problem. It's that financials are not picking up any of the slack. XLC blowing out to a lower low.
Same thing XLY. These three just tell us that the rally is really narrow. And I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure this out, right? But the flip side of the same coin is just that the risk off sectors are also not screaming like, "Hey, pay attention. This is horrible." Right? This is enough. this configuration, these four versus these three to keep the market pushing higher.
If you look at the B set or the AB sets, let's go through both of them. This looks great. This looks great. This looks great. This looks great. Right?
And this is apples to apples. Kathy Wood trying to get some pickup over here.
Trying for some traction right at the highs on the small cap ratios. Uh small cap small cap growth versus value. IWF IWD doesn't look half bad, right? So still risk on as it relates to that posture. Looking at the B set, you're seeing your gold ratio. Again, this general higher high in here is bullish for equities. You can see over here on the TLT ratio, risk appetite looks good. Bitcoin has struggled a little bit here. Need to continue to see it hold over 80K and the sailor shift tool remain in the green trigger, which is uh triggered from way back in this base. And then if we look at copper, really impressed with the way that copper responded into the end of the week, really taking us from, okay, hang on a second here, bearish divergence to immediately unwinding that uh and out to a new high on Dr. copper telling us that, hey, everything's going to be just fine, right? Um, all in all seriousness, nice to see it back a little bit higher instead of continuing lower. The dollar moves a little bit lower, rates move a little bit lower.
We'll see what CPI has for us into the early stages of this week. I wouldn't make any too uh bold predictions ahead of Tuesday. Let's get on over to the inverted ZT. Uh, not going to be a shocker to see that it's just higher for longer out of the Fed watch tool. Let's go over there now. a little refresh in real time for the video rather than uh you know we do that in the live stream every now and then but there's your higher for longer just everybody's expecting a pause for the foreseeable future if you go to the aggregated probabilities there's even some pricing in of the potential uh we shall see depending on CPI for rate hikes which would just be unbelievable uh for Kevin Worsh to get in there under the assumptions or sort of under the uh the context of why sort of he was uh chosen to begin with anyways moving along to the calendar you You could see uh let's do a quick recap of last week. The biggest uh thing that happened was just your labor report came in much stronger than expected on the non-farm payroll, which just means that, you know, the Fed's not going to have to respond to a breaking labor market here, especially with the unemployment rate remaining fairly stable and flat. Uh yes, I mean Jerome Powell has acknowledged just a number of times like if you don't have a job, it's pretty tough to get a job.
However, if you've got a job, then like things are kind of fine and everything's a little stable as it relates to that.
seeing some AI disruptions, but for now seems to be mostly related to like innovative tech companies. Not to say that these companies don't employ, you know, huge huge swaths of people. Um, but you know, you're not really seeing the AI disruption yet in smaller businesses, it seems. So, that's that.
If you look at the inflation expectations number, it did come in lower than the prior. Uh, I think that the market kind of understands that AI will ultimately be in the future a uh a a deflationary um impulse, right? And you're already seeing this with the model costs, by the way, the way that the fine-tuning and training has continued for like, you know, and and this is uh I got to give some credit over to Kathy. She talks about this all the time, and I think she's right. The cost for, you know, just run-of-the-mill models has decreased. Cost of like frontier models, as they call them, has increased, right? to train the next largest model with you know a gazillion parameters or whatever a gazillion um uh you know tokens and whatnot. Uh that is where the cost comes in. It's not the models that are like just the workhorse models that are fine. It's it's building the next new one that is the uh like oh my god we got to spend like a madman to get that complete. Right? So anyways that's that. Uh no real useful conversation from Trump at 12 on Friday as it relates to the Iran conflict. Uh, I know a lot of people were looking for that, but unfortunately it was more about um what was that about? I I didn't even tune out. I was flying that day, but I looked back through the headlines, didn't see anything. The only thing I did see, which thank you honestly, uh, he said, "Go buy a Dell." And being long Dell shares, like, thank you very much.
That was uh, well welcomed on my behalf.
What I want to point out here from the earnings perspective, uh, is that earnings estimates continue to move in the upward direction. Look at how sharp these earnings revisions are in the upward direction for these bottom up EPS uh projections. I mean, if you're sitting here saying that the market is going on fumes, I would agree with you if EPS was like flat and the multiple expansion was what was driving this. If we just scroll down now and take a look at multiples, the PE, right? PE, it's up off the low, but you know, this is not like a PE expansion where, oh my god, we're at a 30 PE on the forward 12 month. No, you're getting like really solid earnings growth forecast. pass. I mean, look at this chart. Uh, literally off the walls, right? You're getting such strong uh EPS here. Uh, that is justifying the move in the upward direction. Another reason why in the intro like this is just not quite the same as the insanity of uh the 2000 tippity top of the bubble. Could we get there? Yeah, I'm not saying that we can't get there. I mean, the human sort of psychology behind the bubble, right?
The FOMO behind it. They're just like buy anything that's related to AI.
Albert's great example, right? Uh although it was very quickly punished, right? like that very well could happen.
But at this stage, the EPS projections here are certainly backing the valuation without like here's another thing. You want to see like something else that's kind of crazy. We're not even at the PE ratio as what we had peak sickness recovery, right? We're we're below that by what? Let's just call this uh 23 and a half and we're currently what? Let's call it 21 for the sake of round numbers. We're off, right?
there's like there's some room here for things to continue to move in the upward direction based on the earnings estimate. So anyways, just wanted to really spend a little moment here. Uh if you're trying to short the market cuz you're a non-believer and oh, it's a bubble. I I mean, come on. Like what are you talking about? It's a bubble, right?
Um maybe in hindsight we'll know, but you know, pullbacks, higher lows, the earnings power seems to be there. Let's jump on over into the earnings calendar for the coming weeks worth of trades.
Circle captures my attention. It's my first time looking at this with you here. So, let's just go through a couple of these ones. Uh, not interested in him. Hers, it's been the lagard of the group for uh, space theme right now. So, we'll see what that does. Marathon Digital Holdings, that's interesting to me. Archer, maybe honorable mention.
CLSK, honorable mention. Yep. Yep. Fine.
Uh, not interested in the quants. What else? Um, D. Good. Fine. Fine. Alo, honorable mention. Caraman, yes. Uh we'll see what next power has for us.
That looks good. That's good there. Uh let's keep moving. Nebus obviously big watch. Enbus is a huge uh you know watch there on Wednesday. It's pre-market which is interesting. So we'll take a look at that. Baba not really. EOSC has been acting well recently but not all that interested personally. What else?
Uh nothing here.
Cisco perhaps US perhaps. Put box around those two. What else do we have going through? I really want to focus on on this. The setup on the daily has been pretty good. It did just get a kiss of the 200 SMA. And honestly, I'll just to tell you now, it is one of the trade ideas. Lunar could get interesting over here.
What else is on the dockets? AAT.
Absolutely.
Anything else? Starting to slow down a little bit until we get Nvidia. That's the next big one, of course. I think that's it. That's what I got here through the calendar this upcoming week.
Figma, honorable mention. New bank, honorable mention over here. That's it.
All right, let's jump back on over to the platform. Let's do what we do best.
Let's finish up with our supporting evidence corlist to companies and then we will be on our way. Bond impulse, right? Telling us that once again the inflation impulse that oh my god, it's going to be bad. Oh, unwound after ISM services PMI. Let's jump on into our credit spreads still look absolutely fine. Under the 50, under the 50 and rolling on Friday looks pretty good. HYG and isolation is the only sore spot that I've seen through the supporting evidence so far. Maybe alongside financials, if you're a bear, please, this is like what you have to latch on to. you got to be screaming from the rooftops. It's divergent. It's divergent. Obviously, the market hasn't seemed to care all that much. One thing I would be curious of seeing is the LQD, which is uh corporate grade um credit here. So, I mean, even this is uh still divergent. I mean, speaks for itself, right? Lower highs here versus higher highs here. So, even that didn't really shape up. And this is again corporate grade versus junk. So, kind of notable on that front. Let's go back on over into our total breath. We'll go full screen uh per pane here so we could see little bit of breath contraction into the end of the week. I think that makes sense given what we saw with the IWM.
But once again, if that turns right, if this turns and hooks, you're just going to be staying over some pretty key references and that rotation will really keep things afloat. Let's jump on over to the RSP. Doesn't look bad. Uh you know, inside day there on Friday. Can we just brigade bolt out to new highs? I would be concerned when and if we take out like 199 uh 190. Yeah, 200. Let's call it under 200. This is a log scale, it looks like. So going over to the QQQE uh straight up I mean new higher high even on the equal weight NASDAQ tells you where the concentration is obviously your tech sector. Let's get on over to our volatility VIX will start lower you know again no real commentary on the VIX VIX. No real commentary here. A little bit of an update on Friday. I don't think that's all that meaningful. Maybe ahead of CPI is fine. A little bit of an uptick out of V. Let's go over to the V futures. Still strong. Contango's up top. looks great here on the nine versus the 30 and the one day VIX still sitting on the floor rather than elevated up in Never Neverland. So, in my in my book, nothing to uh get overly concerned about through supporting evidence. I'd say your HYG is the biggest one. And once again, just the biggest thing for the market right now is understand the day when rotation does not step up. That's when you can attack it. If rotation is taking place, do not attack it on the short side. uh and just wait, wait patiently, wait for sideways, wait for new ranges to develop, wait for new leadership, wait for, it doesn't even have to be new leadership, but new setups in recent leaders uh to represent themselves. With that, let's jump on into the core list of companies. Let's finish this thing up on a strong note.
Nvidia, brand new all-time high last week, uh intraday could not close up there, though. This is still the closing all-time high back here. I think this could easily use a pullback over 208.
Build out a new flag and then go right.
This is 3 days up hard. Started to back off from the highs there. I think you want to see it cool off over 208 and then brigade bolt out to new highs. Does that mean it's a short? Not necessarily.
I would tend to think that you want to just let this thing show you what it wants to do at 213. If it's a flag here and then go, fine. If you drop 213, you probably could treat this as a head and shoulders. Through the thin structure would be your short 211 to 208. Here is where I would start looking for that higher low on the daily to step up.
Let's move along to Apple. Really not much uh to say about this for the same reasons as uh Nvidia. You're up three, four, five, uh, four days here. Hard, right? This is like straight up. And I think you could just cool off at the all-time high. You could go sideways.
Pullbacks over this 28865 set you up a bull flag. Brigade bull pretty classic.
Up and out into new highs is fine.
Taking a look at Thursday once again.
This is where the pressure is on those shorts. If you're a short, you want to see look above and fail. Lower high here and then this to 280. No dice as of Friday. Jumping on over to Microsoft.
This is probably my least favorite chart of the Mag 7 names. It continues to be very sloppy in here. I don't love it. Um I I personally want to see some more clarity out of this name before doing anything with it. Maybe look below and fail 412 again goes back to the top of the range. I don't love that after Thursday's upper wick. I mean, look at that big rejection here. Opening drive completely unwound. Nothing on Friday.
So, I'm a pass on Microsoft for now until the daily chart clears up. Let's go to Amazon. Chart looks great. Look below and fail of the Thursday low. I could see this trying to get long um on the Monday session give or take over this 27350 into the all-time high. First trims there and then blowing out into new highs if possible. If you are just consolidating here, let it drift, let it set something new up. But for now, really liking the action on Amazon.
Gentle little pullback, kind of a little flag from this perspective. We'll see if we can go up and out over that 27350.
Where am I overly concerned about downside? If you fail the 20, if you lower high underneath the previous all-time high, that's a problem. That's 25825. Moving along to Google, starting to get some of your extensions from that uh 50 SMA. The 10x handle is the um is the threshold. I mean, honestly, doesn't look bad considering it was a 2-day range on the Wednesday, Thursday. I just, you know, again, mind the extensions from the 50. I think if it does start to go, you're probably just disappointed with some like attempted rally. It starts to go for a flag and then the flag fails, right? And then you're at 400 again. Then maybe it tries again and it and it slows down, right? I really think Google could use some more sideways to lower versus sideways to higher, right? A little, not that it's directly a channel, but these incremental higher highs just become more problematic because longs getting involved later and later and later are getting rewarded less and less and less and less. So, ideally, this would have acted more like an Amazon and been sideways to down then set up the break.
So, we shall see on Google. Not my top priority. Broadcom's been sloppy.
Really, really sloppy. I mean, look at the hourly chart here. This thing is a wild beast. Basically, uh, I've talked about how disappointing this has been in the past, right? This gaps up over into blue sky territories. You would think gap fill reversal. You would think a hold of the previous left side peak from over here. Nope. Closes weak, follows through to the downside. Okay, fine.
Lower high underneath the neckline in here at 420 probably sets you up for a roll over back to the downside. Nope.
Hard to the upside on the Friday session. So really noisy uh price action that doesn't really align with like I mean sure nice 20 SMA hold if that's the only playbook that you have buying 20 SMA touches then sure you made out like a bandit into the Friday session but trying to understand the way that buyers are positioned in here and sellers are positioned in here just all over the place at a broadcom so even that to me is a little hard to want to get involved in metaverse what's going on with the verse uh probably a short I should have participated in on Friday but did not uh nonetheless unless this breakdown of the head and shoulders neckline fine. Uh lower high here bottom end of the range perhaps comes into play. I don't think there's much to do if you're not already short from the highs for a swing or you know if you scalped the intraday on Friday that's fine. I don't think there's much to do in the midpoint of a balance range. And you know we talk about this all the time on the channel.
The best place you know to execute your edge is literally at the edge the edge of the balance. You know look above and go look above and fail. Fine. Look below and go. Look below and fail. Right?
Fine. So, in the midpoint, not really seeing much new to do with Meta. I would let this thing balance. Let it be. And uh when and if we're over 62125 maybe or when and if we're underneath 592 to close this gap to the downside, maybe something there. So, going over to Tesla waking up in a big way. Three days hard to the top side on an increase in volume. Clearly, a little bit of accumulation happening there. Just higher lows over the 200 are the name of the game. I don't know about new longs here. Uh just risk riskreward wise.
Would like to see this either tighten up into an inside day and then go out uh over those highs. would like to see it pull back over the 200, look below and fail, reclaim it intraday. That's along there near 403. That could get interesting. But as of right now, uh really nice action. It's finally started to wake up uh and trade like, you know, we know it can. So, we'll see if this wants to give us some constructive long entries uh to the top side, right?
Congrats. You know, if you're long it already out of this flag in here, then by all means, like if you're already long, fantastic, playing off of this higher low. for day trades and such.
Probably want to start to see it either retrace offer higher lows here or retrace a bit, get the 200, reclaim it, and then uh move back in the upward direction. Right? So, that's that. I don't necessarily think I want to fade it too too hard. Let's jump on over to JP Morgan. We already saw this as a dog for financials under the 200. So, lower highs sub 30550, sorry, 30520 will be problematic. I would just start looking for about 29250 to the downside. Let's jump on over to Palanteer PLTR. This also sloppy. It's been trading okay like great short on it on Friday for the 140 but uh or sorry Thursday but just kind of like all over the place. Uh so for swings probably not for day trades fine.
uh gap fill reversal makes sense to me up here for a short that would be over 143 closes 1452550 SMA rejection if it's just consolidating and blows out under uh 134 excuse me not 140 13450 then down to about 12625 makes decent sense just continuing the series of lower highs and ultimately trying to make it back down to the equal low going on over to AMD I mean just an untouchable at this point for swings if you're long at intraday by all means great uh and uh just kind of letting it be So chart is unbelievable.
I think that these you know levels are they're definitely nosebleleed, but uh you know what are we going to do? We're we're probably not going to short this aggressively. Um we're probably going to wait patiently for either a new swing setup. Look below and fail in here. Uh day trades on pullbacks off of levels to again scalp it with tight stops. New money longs for a swing though. Probably not. So just really extended 18 ATRs. It likely goes backside at some point.
There's likely an opportunity to get short AMD at some point for a counter trend trade, like a little bit of a blowoff top. But I'm not even seeing it from a volume perspective, right? If we just remember back to over here, this gap up day was even higher volume than what we've kind of been dealing with recently. This is earnings, but like that's not a huge incremental blowoff top uh or excuse me, parabolic blowoff top type volume move uh on AMD. So, really got to be careful trying to short this. If you are going to try to get involved on a move that's backside, uh, number one, just understand you're going counter trend and number two, use the VWAP as your best friend. Okay? Got to be below VWAP there. MU, same thing, right? Just an absolute monster in the upward direction. Huge stock has what, more than doubled in the last handful of weeks. I mean, just an incredible move out of MU. Definitely one for the history books. And at this point, you know, again, new money longs from a swing perspective. No intraday trades.
Maybe if we take it on down to the hourly, you know, I think it's pretty straightforward. Look above and fail.
That's back under 731. If we're underneath, you know, intraday VWAP, that's fine. Almost an identical setup to the Thursday session. But you got to respect the stop. If you're someone who's like, "Oh, no. I'll move my stop, you know, I'll I'll I'll uh move it from the VWAP to the high of day. Oh, the pre-market high. Oh, I'll just put it a dollar or two above the pre-market high.
Okay, I'll use 775. It's a round number." If you're a stock mover, you cannot short this. You're just going to get steamrolled. You're going to blow up your account. it's not going to end well. So, that is it for MU. Um, pullbacks to here would definitely be attractive to see if buyers want to step up as a higher low. Um, and if it's going to be short, you know, maybe maybe something in there uh as a blowoff, but the volume once again, like your volume isn't even getting crazy yet, you you need blowoff top style volume, right?
300% or whatever of the average 20-day.
You can see on Friday was about 150%. So double that if you know if you got something up and over 100 million shares on MU definitely could start to do it.
All right, that is the core list of companies. Let's get on into these trade ideas. Let me just scroll over on another screen so I could see them. Here we go. LRCX Lamb Research is the first on the docket. Uh this is not overextended. I mean, yes, it's more than four ATRs from the 50, but goodness in this market, you know, anything that's like anything less than 10 ATRs is like, oh jeez, finally you can maybe like think about that as a trade base breakout higher low continuing. This is a nice little inside consolidation.
Obviously, if money comes out of semiconductors, you might not be able to have this trade fire off all that successfully, but inside bar breakout is fairly straightforward over about 29750 on Lamb Research. That is the first idea for the long side in today's episode.
Next up is going to be Bloom Energy.
Bloom Energy higher low. Look at the look below and fail of previous day's low. You broke below and then closed back in. Not to say that it was a huge day uh for Bloom, but staying over the 20 SMA, over the gap fill reversal. I would think that this is going to start becoming somewhat viable uh maybe over that high, maybe on another look below and fail at the 20 back into range, a red to green move, something of that sort would be interesting to me on be treating this as a higher low on the daily time scale. That of course is uh you know certainly a leading theme.
Let's going over to Coinbase. Coinbase not really a leader by any stretch, but I do think it's worth noting on the earnings gap down. We support over the trend line. We reclaim the 50, the 20, closed pretty strong. If this can consolidate, I still want it on my radar as a potential break back above 21050 into the uh 200 SMA. So, looking for a way to get involved potentially in here on a brigade bolt over 21050 in the near-term future on Coinbase, which makes me think, let's go on over to Circle. Uh we've been going by price point, but I'll skip to Circle, then we'll go back by price in a second.
circle here. Same concept uh as you know maybe maybe bloom as a matter of fact but look below and fail previous days low reclaim of the moving average stack earnings on Monday should set the tone for this to see whether or not it is going to be actionable or not right so it's this it's the way to play stable coin it's the way to play you know maybe aentic AI uh transacting in stablecoin and billions of agents in the future you know all transacting with one another so over something like Friday's high on Monday if we get a respectful open you know in in range Hard to believe that that's going to be the case with earnings, but just want to keep an eye on this. Potentially drifting into higher lows after having reclaimed the IPO opening print. Uh yes, the Genius Act kind of slammed this thing back over here, but I I think it's worth another go around on Circle uh to try it long if this wants to step up. So, that is that.
Let's go back into the price uh filter.
So, let's go MRVL wicked extended. Uh there's some Rhode Island terminology for you. So, wicked extended up here. And you know, got to be careful of that. It is back below 10 ATRs. This is somewhat sideways in here.
Is this the first flag on the weekly? Is it buyable over 171 or like if you already have it, could you add to it over the inside bar high? Maybe. Maybe.
It's It's definitely a chart setup that captures my attention. Huge leader obviously. Lows, higher lows, higher lows. Are we here? Are we over 171?
Maybe. Right. Just please understand that you got to treat that with a tight leash. If you get on the if you get it long uh and it ends up failing the breakout, you don't want to be the sucker who's still holding it long for a 50 SMA kiss or something like that and then it, you know, catches up and you're still holding it, you're underwater.
Don't let that be you. It's either like it starts working and you have your stop in here and you're you're you're right, it's a breakout and everything's great or you just get get out of the way, wait for a new setup, you just cannot afford to overstay uh poor location if you're getting involved on these extensions, right? So anyways, that's the disclaimer on MRVL. Next up, uh and into the end, we're going to go by price still.
Another M mRNA, Madna. Uh given the sort of new virus that's kicking around out there Friday certainly participated in the upward direction. Big increase in volume. Apparently two cases landed over in New Jersey. Uh you going to get something that looks like that? Maybe.
Maybe. Not that it's an official trade idea, but NVX also a big move into the end of last week. Uh, this chart does not seem as set up as beautifully, but MRNA nice flat top base theme/c catalyst underneath it. Weekly high or low. We'll see. It's obviously got a history of making really large moves. All we have to do is remember back to the sickness.
Let's go back. Jeez, it's crazy to think how long. But, uh, you know, really crazy moves, nutty moves. Is this a weekly cup and handle? Certainly could be, right? You got your catalyst in the headlines. Now, it's just a matter of does it go. So looking for maybe 80 on the top side there if it does break out more meaningfully. Uh just understand like if this if the catalysts start to go away from the headlines of oh no it's not really a big deal and like this is treatable these people are you know quarantined and it's non-transmutable or whatever you know I'm not a doctor I'm probably saying all the wrong terms but you get my idea. If that headline goes away you know it might not go to zero but you're probably not going to have that catalyst break uh that many people are likely looking for. APLD.
Next up, Applied Digital here uh for the data center theme from Cryptominer, right? Is this just a flag? Would like to see look below and fail on the two-day lows, reclaim a 4160 out to new highs. Same thing. Cipher. Cipher over here. Same setup. So, there you go.
Throwing in a little bonus. Uh this one, same idea. Look below and fail. Reclaim 2060 out to these highs. Be the first target. You know, pivot high in here first and then the new high. So, looking out for that on APLD and Cipher. still hot, relevant to the theme. Nice inside hammer on Friday for both of them.
Moving on over to the final idea. I gave this one away earlier, but onis right and the reason I like this is you got a hammer red to green move on the Friday session supporting over the daily 200 which is still sloping in the upward direction. So if you wanted to try this, you are under the 50, you are under the 20. It clearly has not been a a leading theme, leading group right now, but if you wanted to try it close to the bottom end of the range, at least your riskreward is tight, right? You could go look below and fail or whatever. You could say long riskreward like that to the top of the range. If you break out, it's gravy on top, right? So, onis not really a bad look here at 8.45. Looking to see whether or not this 200 SMA test, the daily hammer from Friday, can resolve in higher prices. With that being said, that's the end of today's episode of the weekly watch list. If you enjoyed the video or learned anything new, let me know down below in the comments section or by giving the video a very simple thumbs up. As always, we'll be live on Monday morning at 8 a.m. Eastern time for another episode and installation of the pre-market prep.
Hope to see you there at the show. We're streaming from penthouse location north.
And uh we're getting some nice seab breeze here. Hopefully the fresh air clears up everything. With that, see you on Monday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Have a green trading week. And as always, I will see you in the next one.
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