This Rally Is Not Normal.

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]We have ourselves another historic rally in the making and some interesting divergences that are taking place in the market. So, we're going to talk about that on today's stock market report where we have new episodes Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. If you haven't done so already, make sure to subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications. Let's go ahead and get into today's show.

[00:00:22]All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome back. Sorry, my voice is a little off today. Losing my voice. S&P closed at a new all-time high. We didn't reach into new all-time high territory, but we did close at a new all-time high. And where are we for the week? We're consolidating. On the last episode, we said, let's start to look for consolidations and or pullbacks. And as it stands right now, we pulled back and then today getting kind of thrown around by the news, but overall just some consolidation. However, there's two trading days left in the week. And I want to remind people, we just had three consecutive weeks of breaking the expected move. Will this be one of those stall weeks? Very likely. But I would still be planning for a tag of either the upper and or lower weekly implied move because that is what's priced in for the market. If you take a look at today, the daily implied move, we came right into that and we just doodled around for the bulk of the day. We started with a gap up, we went a little bit higher and we just doodled at that daily implied move. So these levels are important. So I'm going to update you with tomorrow's daily implied move and that's roughly at about 7:16, right about here to 717. The blue line is not fully updated yet. I just used some backhand math. I'll get those updated when my Asherbot fully updates its API data. So, you can get those in the Discord server. And then down here about 705, I'm going to call it 70470 to 706.

[00:01:38]Kind of right in that range. Now, overall, we are just consolidating sideways, right? If you had a strong move up and you're just moving sideways and we're not selling off, this is known as a bullish consolidation. So, the thought here is simple. If we want to continue this run, start to watch for those upper daily implied moves outside of the quarter date and even potentially the upper weekly implied move. This has happened so far with absolutely no breathtaking. So, it's it's easy to get locked out of these rallies, but if you don't want to be locked out, make sure you're paying attention to smaller time frames. For example, if you were to trade this, say, okay, I'm going to keep I'm going to enter in here. Just say, let's just say the price opens right here. And where would your stop be?

[00:02:18]Well, maybe it's below the low of today's trading session and or maybe you want to trail it underneath the weektoday. So, that means your risk would be right here. You'd still be above a week-to-day VWOP, an inclining 5day moving average, but your potential reward opens the door and you could see up into the daily implied move and potentially even the weekly implied move. You're looking at a pretty significant maybe three or 4:1 risk-to-reward ratio. So, that's how you would approach something like this from a smaller time frame. And position sizing still is obviously very important. We did come down to this volume weighted average price that we talked about on the prior episode right over here. And we saw obviously a big reaction. Unfortunately, that came overnight. So, we'll continue on now to the RSP. I did want to call out that the RSP, which is equal weight S&P 500. It looked like we almost had a matching high. We about did, but still this is a high point right here. This is a lower high while the S&P 500 is a new all-time high territory. So, there's still a divergence between equal weight or the broader market here and the S&P 500 cap weighted. Why is that? Well, because it's being driven by tech. Tesla reported earnings after the bell. Very mute reaction overall. Didn't even come up to its implied move, which was roughly about $22. We didn't even hit the daily implied move for the day. If you look down over to here, you can see that it's trading slightly down in the aftermarket session. We'll see where this opens up, but overall pretty flat.

[00:03:35]I would be looking that if we open up rather flat on Tesla. Be prepared for this thing to move either plus or minus those 20 $22. That is the expected move for the earnings day which we have to see. I mean this was earnings but now we're going to have the earnings session too. The first day the cash session after earnings. So Tesla reported we had Service Now report didn't look all too hot. We have Intel on deck which is looking at a roughly about a 10% implied move there too as well. And then next week we have our bigger name starting to report. If you take a look at the oneweek performance so the market's been doing pretty decent. Why? Well, tech has been leading the way over here, up 5.18% in a single week. But I do want to call out that the S&P 500 from a week-to-day perspective, it is flat, 0.15, the DIA.11 flat, right? So, we haven't really gone anywhere. It's Q's, right, that are having the outperformance, which is up roughly 1% especially after today's performance. Now, the semiconductors, I'm looking at SOX. This is the Philadelphia semiconductor index.

[00:04:35]You can look at SOX or SOXX. You can even look at SMH, but SMH is a is built a little bit differently, but I'm using this one because I wanted to show you just the velocity of this move. You're looking at a 16day streak to the upside with no breathing. This is a historic move. This index has been around since December of 1993, so over 30 years of data here. And you can see the five longest consecutive streaks are right here. We just broke it today, right? And perhaps we might even get another day of a green streak. I'm not too sure, but this was a 15-day streak. And that was in 2014 from May to June. And that was only a 7% gain. So the magnitude of this be is just absolutely astonishing. We're talking a 16-day green green streak. 38% in 16 days. Absolutely mind-boggling price action. If you look at SMH, I was considering looking at XS, which is an inverse of the semiconductors to do a fade trade. And I was hoping to see if we can get through this weektoate implied move. So, if we can get through to that on tomorrow, I'll start with a little pilot position and then it'll be a quick one to see if we can just quick quick fade to the downside. But nothing too dramatic there as as I'm focusing more of my attention on long setups, which we discussed a lot on the prior video. Now, one of these big interesting kind of breaks in divergences or correlations that's been going on is the move in Q's relative to the Q's in China. So, for example, you have QQQ here and then CQQ, which is the China Tech name. And there's typically a very strong correlation. As you can see, they kind of move hand inand. The Chinat is the black line over here and then the candlesticks are the QQQ's. The reason why I bring this up is because I'm looking for opportunities. So, for example, is Chinat going to play catchup eventually or is this getting extended and going to catch down or perhaps when this one takes a little bit of a breather, consolidates, will we see Chinat tech start to play catchup? So, I think this one being that there's typically such a strong correlation should be on the radar for people watching. And another thing that you can actually look at here is actually how tightly correlated to Bitcoin it's actually been. So, you look at CQQ and and Bitcoin. Bitcoin's the candlesticks.

[00:06:50]This one's actually kind of more handinand right here. You can see we spiked up here. We went down together.

[00:06:55]We did this little rounding bottom and now we're moving up. And Bitcoin, as we all know, has been on a buy signal since March here. You can see we started crossing above. We had a little bit of a breather and bam, we started moving to the upside. So, we're still in a positive rate of change between Bitcoin and gold, which is the buy signal, and we've already had our buy trigger. So in these situations, you look to go long Bitcoin when it makes sense for Maris Ward, long Ethereum, long various crypto-related equities and so forth that have been doing quite well. This by far is one of the top signal charts in in my opinion for for looking at when to get risk on, risk off of crypto and cryptoreated equities. I have a video on this one, too. The 10-year yield is looking rather defensive. It's in this kind of flag formation over here. And this defensiveness kind of has me on guard a little bit because if this thing starts breaking out to the upside, perhaps that's when we see our consolidation take place in the markets.

[00:07:47]And you can look at bonds too, right?

[00:07:49]Bonds are kind of just flagging here, holding up rather steady. I'd prefer lower rates, but we'll we'll see. We'll see what we're given right now as they're just kind of holding up, consolidating. BPX chart still in that overbought condition. Came off a little bit. Like I said, I like to see this above 70 and or give us a bearish divergence which has not formed yet. The tech sector for the bullish percent chart is now moving into that overbought condition which we have not seen since December of 2025 before seeing some of the tech names start to roll over. The BPNX chart is not in that overbought condition. However, we are getting a reading that we haven't seen since August since July of 2025 there as well.

[00:08:28]So, we're actually getting a little bit more frothier find like surp you think that we'd already be frothy but surprisingly not on the bullish percent index for the NASDAQ 100. If I look at growth relative to value, so this is right here is a chart of Q's, but really what I'm looking at is down here. And down here is the rate of change between growth and value. And growth and value, what I'm using is I'm using IWF over IWD. That's Russell shares growth and Russell shares value. And a lot of times when you cross down through this zero line rate of change, you can actually see the market uh actually struggle a bit as far as more tech names, growth in your names. So that's something to watch. but also when they're very extended in either direction, you can see sometimes pullbacks and consolidations as well on the cues and or some other products. But as you can see here, the rate of change is reaching to a level that we haven't seen since 2024 in December. And that's growth outperforming Russell from a 10day perspective pretty significantly there. Now, this is also getting rather interesting here as well.

[00:09:27]This is the total put to call ratio. And what I'm doing here is I'm making it purple in the background, thinning it out. So, or turn the opacity down a little bit, and then I'm applying the 10day moving average. And right here is when you start to say, okay, things are getting really frothy. It's when the line crosses down through.8. Okay. And we're basically there. We're at 803, I think it is. So, we're slightly above it. Now, the reason I say that is because you can see, look over here. We got through this area. This was after a pretty strong move coming from more extremely bearish reading, just like we were extremely bearish up here at 1.0 O and then we crossed down. It would led to a rally. And this right here, you can see it led to a pullback right here and then a little bit of a consolidation.

[00:10:05]So, are we in for a similar type situation by looking at this now? In other situations, you can actually see that it's actually marked pretty big reversals. And this wouldn't be the only one. It actually caught the one going into COVID as well. So, a couple and and a few other than that, too. I believe into going into 2022 as well. I'd had to pull the chart. But it's basically a time where yes, it can go deeper, but then at these levels, you start to be a little bit more on guard. And by on guard, I mean you pay more attention to the market conditions. And right now, we're above the gamma flip line. We're well above it. So the market, you look to buy the dip and sell the rip, right?

[00:10:39]That's what dealer flow is going to do.

[00:10:41]So when you cross under the gamma flip line, you get selling into selling, buying into buying, you get more volatility. And if you're in situations like this where you're kind of pressing higher and higher, then you flip under the gamma flip line. It's not necessarily a time to get incredibly bearish, but it is a time to take your foot off the gas pedal and be significantly more cautious on wider range moves. The other put to call ratio that I want to show is the options equity put to call ratio. So not the total, this is just the equity minus the index portion. And what I'm calling out here is you see the purple line, that's the CPCE, the the the ratio itself, but then I apply a 5day moving average to smooth the data out a little bit. And you can see we're reached down into this area over here roughly at about 0.5. And I typically only watch it when it's above 75 because that's when things are getting like overly overly dramatically bearish. And when it crosses back down, you could potentially see bottoms in the near future. Like over here, it didn't even actually get there, but it got close. That was kind of a bottom there.

[00:11:38]But I did want to call out that I I saw it get rather low and I looked to the left and I was like, "Oh, that actually when it started crossing back above, we went through a period of consolidation and then obviously we went through a little bit more." And then right over here, same thing. We we started to draw down a little bit, consolidate. Nothing too crazy. Right here, nothing really.

[00:11:55]We came in a little bit more, then we rallied up, came back in. Right over here was coming out of a big that that was the tariff debacle there in 2025.

[00:12:02]And that marked a little high point before pulling in and heading higher.

[00:12:05]And then same with right over here. You got we got this big move right over here and then it got extended and we just pulled in and consolidated. Yeah, we ended up heading lower, but that's obviously because of some various news flow. So things are once again continuing there. They're still frothy overall. Um the markets ran far and fast. We haven't really got too much of a consolidation, but yet things are still very bullish overall in the markets. We're getting near that quarter to date implied move as previously stated up into uh I we're basically there on SPY. SPX is a little bit further away, but there are opportunities that have been arriving.

[00:12:38]If you didn't watch the prior video, I went over many different names, and now we're talking about potentially China names, obviously, various crypto-related equities, too, as long as they continue to hold these trends. If you want more additional content, make sure to check out the pinned comment there. There's a link to my Patreon, which is I do everything on Discord. You buy it through Patreon. You sync your Discord up. There's a getting started post on how to do that. It's only 36 bucks a month. It's less if you do it. annually and you get access to my proprietary Asher query where you can type in various commands and get expected moves for daily, weekly, monthly. There's also an area where you can build a watch list and get alerts for those on your watch list whenever those expected moves are tagged. I I have an indicator that you can just plot your specific levels on both the expected moves that I share here which are right from the options chain. I give swing trade setups. It's not an alert service various ideas. I update my watch list every week. I give a tight list which are the stocks from the watch list that are contracting. the daily zones documented as well which gives you a good fractal view of the market. Then I also included the premium unusual whales query tool, the premium uh trady tick query tool and all their auto posting bots and cheddarflow options stuff too. I don't really use the options flow stuff all too much there but it's there for those that want to use it. That's all I got for you.

[00:13:52]Hope it helps out. Pos on the next.