Best MLB Home Run Picks Today | HomeRun Bets & Predictions | HR Props 🔥

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Welcome back to the lab. We are back for May 24th in the MLB, and today we are going straight into the home run board.

[00:00:07]Five bats I want on the board, a few leans, and a couple spots where the matchup gives us a real home run path.

[00:00:14]First, we check the weather, then we get right into the names. The weather board gives us enough to work with today.

[00:00:22]Great American Ball Park is the main spot. Warm around 73, strong run environment, and the one park I want to attack the most. Yankee Stadium is cooler, around 54 with rain risk. But the lefty lift is still part of the board.

[00:00:39]Citizens Bank Park is around 59 with lighter rain risk, so I can use the right swing there without treating it like a full weather boost.

[00:00:48]Fenway is cold and wet, so that game is more of a pass for home runs.

[00:00:54]The roof games in Toronto, Miami, Milwaukee, and Arizona are more about matchup and price. That is the filter today.

[00:01:03]Cincinnati first, Yankee lift with the right bat, Philly with the right swing, and no forcing cold weather names. Start me with Kyle Schwarber against Parker Messick.

[00:01:15]The market is mostly around plus 320, and that is a number I can attack with this profile.

[00:01:22]Schwarber has been putting the ball in the air with real damage. Six homers in the recent Statcast window, 10 hard air balls, and several swings over 400 feet.

[00:01:33]That is the exact shape I want for a home run ticket.

[00:01:38]Messick is a quality arm, but this is the kind of left-handed power that can beat a good pitcher with one elevated mistake.

[00:01:46]When Messick has to come back into the zone, Schwarber can punish the fastball or anything that stays up.

[00:01:53]I also like the lineup pocket here.

[00:01:55]Turner can create traffic in front of him.

[00:01:58]Harper near him keeps the pitcher honest and Schwarber only needs one mistake in the air.

[00:02:05]Philly is not perfect weather, but the swing gives me enough at this number.

[00:02:09]Next name I want is Ben Rice. Rice gets Drew Rasmussen at Yankee Stadium and this one is all about Lefty lift with current power.

[00:02:19]Rice already has 16 homers, a slugging number over.600 and four recent homers in the statcast search.

[00:02:27]The contact is not cheap either. 16 hard air balls, a few deep fly balls, and enough opposite field strength that the short porch becomes a real part of the read. Rasmussen is good, but he has allowed seven homers this season and he can miss in the zone when he falls behind.

[00:02:45]What I like with Rice is the at bat quality around the power. He can work himself into a count where Rasmussen has to come back over the plate and in this park that one mistake can disappear fast.

[00:03:00]Rice is in the mid plus 400s right now.

[00:03:04]With this swing, that is one of my favorite tickets on the board.

[00:03:09]On the other side of that game, give me Junior Caminero.

[00:03:13]Caminero is a different type of read than Rice.

[00:03:16]Rice is the Lefty porch angle.

[00:03:19]Caminero is the violent contact angle.

[00:03:22]Since May 10th, he has 16 hard air balls, three homers, and deep contact at 413, 404, 380, 378, and 378 ft.

[00:03:36]Ryan Weathers has real strikeout stuff, but he has also allowed eight homers and right-handed power can get to him when the pitch leaks back over the plate.

[00:03:46]Caminero hits it hard enough that a mistake to the middle third is dangerous anywhere and Yankee Stadium only adds to it.

[00:03:55]Candelario is sitting around plus 500 in the better part of the market. And that payout belongs on the board.

[00:04:02]Now, the Cincinnati attack starts with Jordan Walker against Brady Singer.

[00:04:07]Singer comes in with a 6.26 ERA, a 1.70 WHIP, 14 homers allowed, and almost three homers per nine.

[00:04:18]That is the pitcher profile I want at Great American Ball Park.

[00:04:23]Walker has not been perfect, but the power is still showing in the batted ball data. Three homers since May 10th, nine hard air balls, and top distance at 425 and 409.

[00:04:37]That tells me the bat still has home run distance.

[00:04:41]The key for Walker is not a pretty batting average. It is whether Singer gives him one elevated mistake before the bullpen gets involved.

[00:04:51]With Walker in the lineup and that park behind him, I want him live here.

[00:04:55]His value is one big swing against a pitcher giving up too much damage, and I want Sal Stewart in that same Cincinnati game. Stewart gets Matthew Liberatore, and I like this one because the contact already fits the park. He has 12 homers, a.487 slugging percentage, and a recent 441-foot homer at almost 110 off the bat.

[00:05:22]Liberatore has a high whip, nine homers allowed, and enough traffic risk that Stewart should get pitches to hit in the middle of this lineup.

[00:05:32]The red side matters because McLain and Ellie can make the inning messy before Stewart even gets his swing.

[00:05:38]That is when a pitcher with traffic issues starts throwing more hittable pitches.

[00:05:44]Great American Ball Park boosts the red, but the contact is already there. Around the high plus 300s, Stewart is a strong home run look for me. The leans are Juan Soto, Byron Buxton, and George Springer.

[00:05:59]Soto has the best raw contact note of the group with recent balls at 449, 434, 416, 412, and 408 ft. But, Miami is a tough for home run park, and Tyler Phillips has not been giving up much long ball damage.

[00:06:20]Buxton has the power form, but Fenway weather and Sonny Gray make that a tougher ticket.

[00:06:26]Springer is interesting in the Toronto roof game with the lead-off spot, but he is more watch list than main card for me.

[00:06:34]Those three can absolutely beat me, especially Soto, but for this video, I prefer the names where swing, pitcher, park, and price are all pointing the same direction.

[00:06:47]If the video helps you, my premium Discord has way more useful information around the picks, what I am actually on, my final plays, final HR plays, prop angles, passes, traps, and all my explanations for why I am taking or avoiding them.

[00:07:05]Everything is tracked in a public spreadsheet you can check anytime, and this is the board I use. So, you can choose what you like without sorting the whole slate alone.

[00:07:16]All of this cost 39 bucks per month. I left the link in the pinned comment. It gets you into Whop, and Whop gives you premium Discord access.