SMERCONISH 5 9 26

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:03]US and Iranian forces have been embroiled in what's being described as a limited exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has described the US naval blockade as a wall of steel. He told reporters that the Iranian military is quote decimated, adding that their ability to strike back has been all but wiped out. But an exclusive new report from the Washington Post paints a much more bleak picture for the US. According to confidential CIA assessments delivered to the White House, the president's optimism may be clashing with the reality on the ground.

[00:00:33]They note quote Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles. That's according to a US official who said that there's evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.

[00:00:58]So, let's again compare that to the president's own remarks in the Oval Office on Wednesday. He claimed that Iran has only quote 18 or 19% of its missiles left. That's a staggering disconnect and the CIA isn't just worried about Iran's stockpile, because while the president calls this a wall of steel, the reality is that our military stockpile, our stockpile, may be running lower than most realize. According to an analysis released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which provided the first comprehensive non-classified look at the burn rate of Operation Epic Fury, Americans munitions clock is ticking.

[00:01:34]It says 45% of US precision strike missiles have been expended, 50% of Patriot and terminal high altitude area defense interceptors have been used. It also reports that 1,100 JASSM-ER stealth missiles have been fired in February alone, and the estimated replenishment time for all of this ranges from three to five years.

[00:01:56]So, if the CIA is right and Iran retains 70% of its missiles, we aren't looking at a decimated enemy, we're looking at two powers sitting on depleted arsenals, each waiting for the other to blink.

[00:02:07]Joining me now, someone who knows a great deal about it, CNN senior military analyst, former NATO supreme allied commander, and author of the fantastic new book 2084, a novel of future war. This is Admiral James Stavridis. Admiral, respond, please, to those munitions report. Proportionately, proportionately, are we in a worse position than the Iranians?

[00:02:30]Let's start with that CIA report. If accurate, I'll make a top-line observation. Good on the CIA for delivering clearly unwelcome news into the White House. That's what you want your intelligence agency to do, bring you the bad news. So, if the report is accurate, they're doing their job. Now, as to your question, yes, it's worrisome. Note that our stockpiles that you showed being depleted, air defense systems, and highly exquisite precision guided, yes, we have to worry about that.

[00:03:06]But, we do have lots and lots of bombs of GPS-driven level accuracy still in the inventory. We can continue to do a ton of damage. So, as I sort of step back and look at this, I think President Trump has three options, Michael. He can kind of wash his hands of it and walk away. That would be a mistake. I don't think he's going to do that. I hope not.

[00:03:32]Option two, he can go back to a massive campaign of bombing. He's alluded to that several times. It'll be perhaps less shock and awe than the first way, but still do damage. And I think he's going to land on option three, which is continue the blockade, go after Iran, perhaps the leadership, perhaps some other limited targets, but keep the economic pressure on. In any event, we're in a waiting game at the moment for that response to the US one-page memo. Let's see what Iran has to say.

[00:04:08]The president is speaking of Operation Freedom Plus. How might that work in the strait?

[00:04:15]Well, I'm reminded when I go through McDonald's of do you want to supersize that order? Uh and I think in in seriousness, what he's talking about is the basic escort uh service, which is very resource intensive, but the plus could be one of two things. The plus could be adding some level of limited bombing, perhaps going after leadership targets.

[00:04:41]Let's face it, the intransigence coming from Iran is centered in the Revolutionary Guards. Perhaps you go after some of those leadership targets.

[00:04:50]That could be the plus or second, the plus could be the basic escort service, but bringing in allies, partners to participate in it and perhaps doing strikes in the vicinity of the strait itself. So, two ways to think about it.

[00:05:06]Both are um interesting ideas that I think could have some some real impact in this impasse.

[00:05:14]Admiral, I'm curious as to what this war is teaching us. You are also a novelist, now publishing the final installment of this trilogy. Looking forward, you initially wrote about war with China in 2034.

[00:05:27]And then, where neither nation succeeded, it was 2054 and it was civil conflict in the US, demographic time bombs going off in China. Now, it's 2084 and we're in the midst of a climate calamity. Wet our appetite.

[00:05:44]First and foremost, something we're seeing today is how fragile alliances are. As you mentioned at the start of this trilogy, 2034, just a few years from now, US and China are in a war.

[00:05:57]But by 2084, they might well be allies.

[00:06:01]Number two, and we see it not only in the Middle East, but in Ukraine, the rise of unmanned, but it's really the driving force of our artificial intelligence, but behind those unmanned capabilities, that is so striking. Now we see drones that are hunters, who they themselves control drone killers, hunter-killer groups, quite extraordinary. By 2084, put AI together with that, lethal. And then third and finally, Michael, it's cyber and cybersecurity.

[00:06:36]All of that with a backdrop of a deteriorating climate, high seas, superstorms.

[00:06:44]There's a lot to be concerned about in 2084, but we can see the edges of it today in 2026.

[00:06:53]Suffice it to say, Florida has changed by the time we get to 2084.

[00:06:59]I'm loving I'm loving the book, appreciate it, and wish you good things.

[00:07:02]It drops Tuesday formally, am I right?

[00:07:06]Absolutely, and my beloved home state of Florida, some will like this, is now the free Republic of Florida. That's the good news, but a lot of it is underwater.

[00:07:18]Wait and see.

[00:07:20]Well, and there's and there's an area called Camp DeSantis. Let us not give anything else away. Good luck, Admiral.