Tropics Update: Major Development Increasingly Likely In The Gulf! How Bad Will It Get?

本站添加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:05][music] >> What is up, weather enthusiasts? I'm your host, Pat's Path Predictor. Let's get right into the weather.

[00:00:19]All right, so here's the situation we have for you ladies and gentlemen. We have a few things that we're going to be talking about today. We're going to be following up on the video I posted yesterday, and we're going to be talking about a few other aspects that we're going to be start going to start watching out for as well as hurricane season starts to get closer and closer to us. So, with that being said, we're going to just go ahead and dive right into it right here.

[00:00:46]Starting off, we have our model runs and we have our ensembles cuz if you remember from yesterday's video, we were talking about a potential we're talking about potentially big stuff happening uh with the with the ensembles and with the models kind of going a little haywire with some potential tropical development going on in parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf. So, we're going to be start off by following up uh with that and kind of taking a quick gander at at that. Let me go ahead and find a find a more zoomed-in uh image for you guys right here. So, yeah, that's perfect. So, this is what we got for you guys uh right here. This is your latest GFS ensembles. This is the zero Z. So, as we were kind of I was kind of looking at this a little bit earlier, we were looking at at this with the zero Z and the 12 Z runs yesterday. We were talking about those, especially the operational models, and I was kind of talking and breaking down the problems I had with it. Operational runs are definitely starting to backtrack a little bit.

[00:01:42]Ensembles are starting to move a bit further to the west as well. So, that's definitely an interesting shift right there. Taking a quick gander at the European ensembles as well. European ensembles have started to back off on it quite a bit as well, mainly focusing on the East Pacific development potential over here. So, that's something we're going to have to watch. Matter of fact, the National Hurricane Center does have their first area of interest for the East Pacific hurricane season out over there. We will look at that in just a second. But, ultimately, you're looking at the ensembles definitely starting to back off a little bit on this. So, definitely something to pay attention to moving forward.

[00:02:21]And then shifting over And then shifting over to the National Hurricane Center actually right here, we have our first area of interest. It's currently in the East Central Pacific Ocean right here.

[00:02:32]But, just for for practice right here, we're going to be going over this just a a little bit and we're going to be reading this out. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week well to the southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Some gradual development of the system is possible during the middle part of next week as it slowly moves westward. 20% chance of formation in the next 7 days. And so, overall, not too bad of a situation that we have right here. We don't really have anything for the 2-day, but the 7-day is definitely calling for a 20% chance of of development. So, that's definitely something that you're going to be watching out for down the line. So, just figured I'd throw that out there. Just figured we'd go ahead and talk about that briefly before we shift back over to the Atlantic since the ensembles are picking up on tropical development over there and I just realized that.

[00:03:25]So, shifting over, we're going to be looking at at model runs. We're going to be looking at the GFS, the European, the Canadian, and all of that. Just to kind of break those down and just to kind of go over what the latest is at least in terms of this potential Caribbean Gulf threat that's over there. So, let's go ahead and get started with that. So, ultimately, here's the GFS. You have a low pressure system starting to slowly get act together, move towards the Yucatan Peninsula. It remains relatively broad as it moves across that region right there of Mexico. As starts to kind of just uh stall out and not really do too much for quite some time. As a matter of fact, there's really not that much action that goes on uh right here because this whole low pressure system is so broad according to the latest runs right here that you're not seeing too much happen outside of maybe something going on in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. So, definitely something to pay attention to uh right there. But, look how large and how broad this low pressure system is. 1,012 millibars goes all the way to the central Gulf and you're down to about 1,003 over here uh off of this region right here. And the GFS, of course being the GFS, has some big low broad low pressure system moving through parts of Texas and Louisiana as well. But, by the time this happens, this is June 10th. So, this is just GFS doing GFS stuff at this current point. And the kind of the runs that we saw yesterday were kind of as I accurately predicted, they weren't going to really we're not going to really see too much. So, that's definitely something that uh keep in mind but to pay attention to as well.

[00:04:58]Taking a quick gander at the European, European's not showing too much either.

[00:05:01]It's kind of backed off, at least in terms of some of the ensembles. I know the 12Z ensembles yesterday had something maybe starting to pop up. I know Josh Morgerman was posting about it on Twitter as well. But, it seems that things have started to calm down once again. Although, the European is interesting right here. This is does look a little interesting and I'm watching this uh right here. The European is actually forecasting a low pressure system to organize and develop maybe of tropical or subtropical nature and potentially heading towards Texas and Louisiana. This is by June 4th right here. So, it kind of mirrors what the GFS is forecasting for a further shift to the west uh right here. This is the 0Z operational, too. So, that's definitely a dev- a development that you're going to want to pay attention to, especially if you're tuning in to Texas and Louisiana right there. We're going to have to watch and see how consistent this is and if this will hold up with the rest of the with the rest of the models and all of that jazz as well.

[00:05:57]But, looking at this, this does appear this does appear to be a tropical storm potentially heading towards that region.

[00:06:04]So, you're going to want to pay attention to that as well. And looking at where the high pressure system over the is over the Appalachians, it would support a more westward shift compared to what we saw yesterday. So, that's definitely something that you're going to want to keep an eye on and that's something that kind of caught me off guard as I was looking at some of the model runs prepping up for this video right here. So, that's what we're seeing with the Euro at this current point. I want to we'll look at I just for my own curiosity, I do want to look at the shear and the dry air to go kind of see how this exactly is going to be panning out.

[00:06:38]So, let's go ahead and start with the wind shear right here. Taking a quick gander at this, let's go ahead and start 5 days out. You have a broad area of 30 plus knots of wind shear across the entire Gulf region right here. That's going to end stay for quite some time until I'd say about a day later when there is a little bit of a break in the wind shear starting around June 2nd. So, this will So, this is about 6 days out from now and this would this would be this would be I believe Tuesday or Wednesday Wednesday. I think that would be Tuesday night as a matter of fact.

[00:07:13]And then as we get towards Wednesday morning, you have this low pressure system starting to get its act together. You do have a break in the wind shear forecasted by the European in the western part of the Gulf. So, that's definitely something to pay attention to as the system starts to slowly organize and gets act together. You do have some shear that the system is going to end up battling right here, but it's about I'd say it decreases to about 20 to 25 knots. So, it's definitely more manageable and if that low pressure system can form in that pocket of low to no shear at all, then you might have something happening with this tropical system potential tropical system. But the fact that the European is forecasting this definitely has caught my attention. The European's definitely the more accurate model of the the between that and the GFS and several of the other hurricane runs at least in the long run as well.

[00:08:04]So definitely something to pay attention to maybe a little bit of development for that region right there. Potential tropical storm Arthur potentially right there according to this. So we'll have to keep an eye on it. We'll have to pay attention to it.

[00:08:18]It is just one model run, but it is something to keep an eye on. So here's what we have with the moisture component as well.

[00:08:24]Moisture [snorts] is also kind of interesting as well. The moisture isn't particularly that bad either. May 30th, you do have some dry air that moves into the western Gulf, but it does become more mixable dry air. And as you start seeing a bit of a moisture fusion around May 31st to June 1st right here. As this potential low pressure system starts to slowly get act together by the time we get to the 2nd and the 3rd, you have more moisture coming off Texas and Louisiana. And it's kind of starts suppressing a lot of this dry air and concentrating it further to the south and to the west of this area of moisture right here. And dry air that does potentially intrude is mixable dry air.

[00:09:02]And you do have this low pressure system starting to form. There is some dry air to the south of it. So that's definitely something to keep an eye on. So maybe a bit of dry air entrainment could be a slight issue with this system. But by and large, it's definitely it's reasonable and it's mixable at this current point. What I mean by mixable dry air is it's air that's is dry, yes, but a little bit of convection can easily mix it out of the system. And that could not be an issue going forward for tropical development. So that's definitely something to pay attention to and definitely something to watch out for as well. Water temperatures are plenty warm for this kind of development as well. So, that's definitely something to watch out for.

[00:09:43]But, ultimately, is it uh but ultimately, if the European is going for it, they definitely are maybe on to something uh with this as well. Just a quick look at this. I do want to see what the vorticity is. I want to see where this vorticity is coming from, and I want to see uh why it's developing something already at this current point in time. So, let's go ahead and and go to about June 1st uh uh right here. June 1st, this is next Monday, you do start seeing a little bit of vorticity emerging off the Yucatan Peninsula and slowly getting its act together uh at this current point. It's starting to move slowly through parts of the Gulf region, the western Gulf, and then it starts to slowly get uh become uh become more concentrate. It is broad initially, but it does start to tighten up pretty significantly as it moves towards the Yucat- uh not the Yucatan, but rather Texas and Louisiana.

[00:10:33]So, [snorts] definitely a potential spin up right there, and it does look like, at least according to this, it does look like it's actually a legitimate signal, according to the European, based on the fact that this is actually emerging off that broad low pressure system from the Central American gyre. And even the GFS is picking up on a very broad uh rotation with this as well. It's not as concentrated as it was before, but it is rather broad. So, that's definitely something to pay attention to and to keep in mind. I wonder how the ensembles in the 12Z European is going to act going forward, but this is a bit of a change >> [snorts] >> compared to what we were we were seeing previously. I was talking about how the GFS was kind of backing off on this, but the Europeans now is saying, "Hold the Hold my beer, ladies and gentlemen.

[00:11:16]We're not quite done with this yet." So, that's something interesting that I've been looking at, for sure. But, out of my own curiosity, what are the other models going for? Let's start with the the Canadian run. Here's your CMC right here. We'll pull up the 0Z, since the CMC's uh 12Z is still loading. Here is your Canadian run right here. System we're taking a quick gander at it. Okay, where is this going to be at? The Canadian isn't really showing too much happening in that part of the region right there. So, that's definitely something interesting and something to keep in mind as well. So, yeah, that's what's going on. Maybe a broad low-pressure system, but nothing really tight compared to the European and its modeling and its forecast. So, that's definitely something interesting as well. Let's go ahead and take a look at the icon even though it's iconic for not being right. Yes, we're bringing those We're going to keep joking about this every time we bring this up, but >> [snorts] >> ultimately, icon showing not too much going on for the next few days. And then as we get to the 1st of June, you have maybe a broad low-pressure system as a part of the Central American gyre starting to get its act together around the Bay of Campeche. But overall, that's what's been going on. It's mainly the Euro and the GFS that has been kind of leading the charge with this. And I'm going okay.

[00:12:31]We'll have to wait and see how everything else acts with this right here. But ultimately, if the European is forecasting this, first of all, I need to see what the 12 Z is going just to see it if that continues. And second of all, if it does continue, okay, what are we exactly playing with? What kind of impacts are we looking for with that. So, that's a kind of the thing that I've been paying attention to and just a general idea of what's going what's been going on. But I do want to go ahead and talk about water temperatures and a few other things as as well with this potential system and across the Atlantic. So, let's go ahead and shift over to that.

[00:13:13]Here are our water temperatures, ladies and gentlemen. For this part of the Gulf, the western part of the Gulf over here, definitely warm enough for for tropical development, 27 to 28° C.

[00:13:24]That's 81 to 82° F for those living in those regions right there.

[00:13:29]I know the I know the I know the max I know the water temperature the magic number is 80° F or 27 26.5° C or so. But I've seen tropical development happen in temperatures colder than that about 75° F about which is about 24° C. That happened in July of 2023 with Hurricane Don, I believe it was as it kind of merged subtropical Atlantic. I remember covering that pretty discreetly.

[00:14:00]But ultimately, it's plenty warm for tropical development taking a quick gander at the ocean heat content. OHC is definitely peaking my interest a little bit. You're not going to see too much OHC if the system waits till it gets closer to the Gulf coast to develop right here. But you are looking at maybe a maybe a little bit of it that could potentially cause a little bit of a of a bit of a juice surge with this. It just depends on how the systems develops, how broad it is, and how much of the water it can kind of take out as it starts to get act together. But by and large, you do have a situation where you're going, "Okay, maybe the GFS is backing up backing off on the intensity of this and shifting it further to the west." But now the European is picking up on this and I'm going, "Uh-oh, we're going to need to kind of take this a little bit more seriously now." So, ultimately, that's kind of your situation that we're looking at at least in terms of this area of development. One thing I do want to hone in for the last little bit of this video is >> [snorts] >> what are the conditions going to be like across the Atlantic and what are we going to need to pay attention to going forward? So, starting off with this map of the OHC, northwestern Caribbean definitely very favorable for tropical development.

[00:15:12]Definitely already at over 100 OHC across parts of the northwestern Caribbean off the coast of Jamaica and Cuba right here. That's only going to continue to increase as well. Starting in a few days, I'm going to bring up some comparisons of where we were at X point and where we are now. Like for example, where were we last week and where are we now with tropical development? At least not tropical development, rather ocean heat content. Same thing with the water temperatures as well.

[00:15:39]So, that's definitely something we're going to start doing. And now pulling up, I want to go ahead and uh zoom out of this a little bit and pull up the wind shear because I do want to see okay and okay, the European's definitely picking up on the western side of the Atlantic, but what's the Atlantic wide picture going [snorts] to look like? What are the highs, what are the lows going to look like? And kind of how can we uh kind of exacerbate this through here?

[00:16:04]So, this is uh what we got for right here. How can we extra uh diet and how can we disseminate? So, here's the European's ensemble run. Uh not ensemble, but rather the operational run, excuse me.

[00:16:16]Um So, here's what we got across the Atlantic. Basically, what we're seeing right here is more of a wild card setup for much of the Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean right here.

[00:16:26]You're going to see ups, you're going to see downs, mainly because you have all these troughs and all these ridges going on in the continental United States and Canada. You guys need to remember, severe weather season is still going on around there. There's going to be some troughs and ridges that do move through >> [snorts] >> these regions all the way into late June and early July. That's when things start to back off and that's when the Gulf shear starts to kind of become a bit more consistent. But looking at this down across the Caribbean, by the time we get to by the time we get to 72 hours out, so this would be I believe a Saturday night into Sunday morning right here.

[00:17:03]You do look at this shear and it's definitely dropped off quite a bit. So, that's definitely something that that's kind of piqued my interest for sure. The question is is it going to sustain? The answer is most likely not. You're going to see more wind shear starting to build in like we talked about earlier, but you do look at kind of more of these breaks in the shear and you're starting to wonder, "Okay, that's definitely a bit a bit different right here." And I'm also going to pull up the wind shear anomalies as well cuz I know we do have stronger than average trade winds across the Atlantic right now because of El Nino, but I do want to pull those up to go, "Okay, where were we at this point compared to the climatological mean and how is this going to pan out moving forward?" So, as we get throughout June and all of that stuff, you're definitely looking at shear that remains relatively consistent, although there are a couple of breaks with it across much of the main development region, but the subtropical Atlantic, you're in the Atlantic basin, you're typically seeing a little bit less shear than what you would normally see. So, that's kind of an interesting tidbit.

[00:18:04]Let's go ahead and take a gander at the shear anomalies for us right here. Shear anomalies, yep, there is stronger trade winds than expect than average across the main development region, but in the Atlantic basin, much weaker for right now and same in the Gulf region. The Caribbean's a bit of a wild card right here. As we go ahead and continue move this, this is by June 2nd, about rather a 5-day anomaly with this right here. You are seeing below average shear across parts of the Atlantic basin and subtropical Atlantic, but the above average shear remains in the trop in the main development region and in the Caribbean. That's not necessarily too surprising at this current point, although you do see a pocket of low wind shear starting to emerge in parts of the Bahamas, Cuba, and Greater Antilles. So, that's going to be something to watch out for. And the reason I'm bringing all of this up to is to kind of pinpoint a pattern. And the the pattern I'm pinpointing right now is okay, we are looking at stronger trade winds, we are looking at stronger shear, but how is that going to persist throughout the rest of the season? So, that's kind of what uh the kind of the an- an- anecdote I'm looking at with this right here. The moisture I've been looking at as well. It's kind of a mixed bag. The Sahara air layer is definitely going to start pushing through a bit more and across the MDR, but you are seeing at least less dust and more moisture, like higher moisture anomalies uh than what we would see on average.

[00:19:31]So, that's definitely an interesting tidbit as well. These are all things we're going to have to talk about next time as we continue to talk about it and close this video out here on the Pat's Path Predictor channel. Be sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel if you are new.

[00:19:45]The goal as always is to get more people engaged with weather. Join the Storms United Discord server. The link to that will be in the end screen. And with that being said, have a wonderful day, guys.

[00:19:54]Stay safe.