Strong Tropical Waves on the Move...

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]Strong tropical waves on the move. Thank you for joining me. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. It is Thursday, April 30th, 2026. These are the tropical waves. One headed into the Philippines right now. And we'll be seeing that moving through throughout the day with a small increase in rain. We'll zoom down across the Philippines. These tropical waves and these back here, these are the ones that will try to develop starting this weekend and by next week. And the potential of a tropical storm is there.

[00:00:26]So, we'll watch out for that. Bigger system rolling through Japan as we go throughout the day today and tonight.

[00:00:31]Monitoring that and some flooding as we get a little bit closer to Bangladesh.

[00:00:34]We'll cover that in this video. Thank you for being part of Mr. Weatherman Asia. Thousands of new subscribers.

[00:00:40]Thank you for being part of this community. All right, watching this.

[00:00:42]Here we are across the Philippines. Get back toward Guam, the northern Mariana Islands. We have these tropical waves that we're watching. This one moving in Visayas back toward Mindanao. Watching out for a chance of some showers. These though are more aggressive. the stronger tropical waves closer to the Marshall Islands. Those are the ones that may start to develop this weekend. So, getting into that, here is this weekend.

[00:01:04]This is a look at one of the Google versions of a model. And you can see here some variations of it showing some signs of development as this area is very close to Guam. I'm not seeing this uh getting super strong super quickly.

[00:01:17]That is some of the good news. being very mindful of Guam and the northern Marana Islands in the wake of Slaku, but we could see some development. Most of the modeling tries to shift this area off to the west regardless of how it develops, if it is strong or if it's weak. Most of the modeling brings this to the west. However, there are a couple models and I'll show you one that tries to bring this area a little bit more to the north. So, still a wait and see.

[00:01:43]Nothing has developed, but a lot of tropical waves out there. And the ones kind of on the back end of this tropical wave train, those are the ones we'll be watching out for development. You see here the European model still painting in a high 80 to 90% chance of that area at least becoming a depression and still a chance of it becoming a tropical storm, but it's backed off a little bit, more in the range of 30 to about 50% of it becoming a tropical storm. So models are not as aggressive. They're all seeing this area back here, but not all of them are kind of blowing this up and making this a huge system. So, that is some good news, but we need to watch this area carefully. So, here's a look at the GFS. So, Micronia, Guam, Mariana Islands, Palao, get back through the Philippines. Here's Brunai, Indonesia right here. And you see this area, multiple tropical waves. We have one moving into the Philippines now, another one back toward Palao with some of that rain. But these are the larger ones. And this is when we'll be watching out for development this weekend time frame. Top right hand corner of your screen. This is our Saturday. This is the spot to watch. Watching the additional rain back through the uh Marshall Islands, Micronesia, we're going to be on the edge of some really heavy rain. Now, this model shows what almost all the models are hinting at by Sunday into Monday. This is deeper into Monday. Some development out of this, potentially a depression as it starts to develop Sunday into Monday. Now, this model starts to lift it a little bit to the north. it isn't certain kind of uh the steering conditions. This would be by the middle of next week. So, we're looking 6 days from now. By the time we get into Wednesday of next week and this would be a week from now, next Thursday, maybe something lifting to the north. If something does try to lift to the north, if it starts out weak, it should stay weak because then it would enter into some cooler water as it lifts to the north. But the concern will be if it does try to get stronger sooner. So, we'll watch out for that area. Now, I don't know where it's going to go yet because nothing's even developed yet.

[00:03:37]This is way out in time, but the models are seeing that area as I've been mentioning. And even this, here's a look at the European model, a version of it, showing this area, but a difference.

[00:03:46]Remember the model I just showed you?

[00:03:48]Showed you here's a Guam for example, it showed something developing and then kind of lifting up to the north. But this model instead shows a little development. Not aggressive development.

[00:03:58]This is a no hype channel. always keeping it in perspective, but it shows some development, but more of that westerly track. So, those are some of the differences. Slow development, most of the models seeing that, but as far as where it goes, still a wait and see, and that's what we'll be watching. Now, in the short term, watching this, a tropical wave that's trying to move in, of course, it runs into the summertime pattern, the heat, the dry air. While the rain chance is going up for most of us, it is going up so very slowly, so very little. And with that, a lot of spots staying dry. This is our Friday.

[00:04:32]This here's our Saturday. Hit or miss.

[00:04:34]Best chance of a shower of Vayas. You get out towards Sibu and off toward the east. That's where we have a better chance of rain. And again, down toward the south as you get toward Dvau over toward the NCR, we're not looking at as much in the way of rain. Could get a couple showers interior sections, northern sections of Luzon. You see here by the time we get into Sunday, southern sections, better chance of rain. Many of us still staying on the dry side with these tropical waves moving in at least in the short term. So, back to the big picture. This is the later today. This is the spot we're watching for development. But here's the area that I was highlighting in the previous videos for it's not a tropical system, but heavier rain moving back through Japan.

[00:05:14]We see that for what's left of today in through the day tomorrow moving across as we go throughout our Friday. Saturday it departs but then into the weekend watching the next area pulling back through China. You see some of the heavier rain here moving back toward Korea and then once again later on Sunday, Sunday night especially additional rain sliding back toward Japan mainly staying just to the north and west of Taiwan. And that's the area we'll be watching for development across parts of the western Pacific. So taking a look at some of the rain totals.

[00:05:43]Here's the key, the legend if you will, at the top of your screen to give you a feel. You could pick a spot on the map, maybe where you are swinging back through the Philippines. You can see the rain as it starts to approach runs into that heat dome and really hits that dry air and then we don't get a whole lot, but we could get a few locations, a few that may top 25 millimeters of rain, but it's not going to be widespread. Some of those dry. Let me know in the comments your location and if you're getting any rain or still on the dry side. It's been a little more settled back through Vietnam, Cambodia, chance of rain. Laos, northern sections watching rain. Here's that next batch of rain that'll pull its way back through China. And then watching the rain, Taiwan getting clipped by some rain. But back through Japan, we'll have a few totals, especially uh south facing waters, east facing waters where we could have some totals of 100 millimeters of rain. Kind of fast system moving by, gusty winds and some of those downpours. And then this spot here, repeat rounds of rain and storms really south of near uh Nepal and Bhutan, but back toward Bangladesh.

[00:06:44]That's where we're going to see some really heavy rain. Some totals could be around 20 centimeters of rain. In the Maldes, we are seeing some of that rain building. Some of the models hinting at a little spin in through here. So, I'll monitor that. The Bay of Bengal not seeing any signs of development though, at least over the next seven to about 10 days. So, strong tropical waves on the move. the initial ones, the first ones run into the Philippines and they start to weaken. They kind of dry up as they hit the uh heat. So, the rain chance a small increase, but it's a small increase. Now, watching near the Mariana Islands for that development as we get into next week. That's what I'll be updating in upcoming videos. So, thank you for being part of Mr. Weatherman Asia. I'll be watching our comments as we go throughout the day. Have a great Thursday ahead.