This content attempts to validate speculative altcoin shilling by wrapping it in the complex logic of the yen carry trade. It is a classic example of dressing up retail hope in the borrowed robes of macroeconomic analysis.
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XRP XLM & HBAR: Japan Just Moved The FED Is Next!!
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>> [music] [music] [music] >> What is going on everybody? Welcome back to the stream everybody. Let's go. Hope you're all doing well. Welcome back. It is uh what day is it? Tuesday night. It is Tuesday night all night here. Let me just get Tik Tok here set up. What's going on, Tik Tok? Welcome in. I didn't realize I was actually wearing the same color shirt as my background. Anyway, anyway, uh welcome into today's and tonight's uh live stream. I hope you're all doing well. I hope you're having a good day. Market's definitely pretty interesting today. Give me one second, everybody. It's pretty warm in here.
There we go. Uh but yeah, hope you're all doing well. Welcome back as always.
We appreciate you tuning in to the channel. Hopefully you guys can all hear me. Uh we haven't had the best of luck over the course of the last few lives.
Uh but hopefully we're all good and uh everything's going right. If it looks a little bit like jerky, it's because right now I'm I'm running uh I'm running some AI stuff in the background and I thought it would have been done by the time I've gone live, but it's not. All right. So, not not ideal. Okay. And and I accept that it's not ideal, but um anyway, I can't really do much about it right now. It should finish soon, I hope. I mean, it's literally been going now for holy [ __ ] 25 minutes. Um but yeah, let's hope it gets done pretty soon. Anyway, um Oh, is the two not working, Martini? I don't know.
Sometimes this sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. You got understand a lot of this stuff is old. It's old stuff. They got There's a two on there.
Yeah. Look, see how like I'm a bit clunky and a bit weird right now, but like I said, hopefully it'll sort itself out. But yeah, I hope you're all doing well. Lots to talk about this evening.
We're going to be getting into uh the big event that's happening tomorrow.
Obviously, I want to discuss a little bit about what happened in Japan today because the headlines would say, "Oh, the Japan carry trade." This is kind of right. The the Japan carry just at that, which is probably not a great idea, Mr. Tubbit. But anyway, the headlines are going to go, "Oh, Japan carry trade, you know, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah." Let's actually dive into it. Let's understand what it is. What are some of the links and connections that we need to be aware of? And ultimately, what does that look?
Okay, cool. My codeex needs a it needs a prompt for it to continue. So, I'm going to leave it just for the second while I'm uh while we're streaming right now.
So, we'll dive into that and then obviously we'll talk about Kevin Walsh.
And then equally, we'll take a look at the price action on BTC. All those people that said, "Oh, Tit, you got it wrong again, you massive noob." Uh, looks like Bitcoin is giving up some of those gains. Now, is this a continuation to the downside or is this just going to be one of those events that people are like, me, whatever, whatever. So, as always, if you're brand new to the channel, by the way, do make sure you hit the like and subscribe button. Like I said, it supports us getting out there to the masses to let them know exactly what is going on. Welcome in Jay. Good to see you. Liam Harvey in the building.
Robert Dos, says, "Don't be buying or selling just yet. More downside in the Iran deal could go sideways." I'm glad you said it before me. Uh people will still think I'm super macro bearish, but yeah. I mean, it's a topic that no one's discussing right now. We still don't have ink on the paper. So, uh, yeah, Mark Nobby, we do need to do the bingo card as well a little bit later on. So, with that being said, let's bring up the price action. Let's take a look and see exactly what is going on with Bitcoin right now. And then we'll dive into a few of the altcoin markets as well.
Innovative, what's going on, my man?
Good to see you. Let me move you guys here. Look, ticker stalkers. And I'll make sure you guys can see the price, which is there. Look. Perfectoundo.
And let me just adjust my other phone so that I can actually see you guys. Uh we're dual streaming. I mean, we're making it happen right now. That's just how we do things around here. But yeah, I mean, look at Bitcoin. 65,500.
Very interesting. And I think it's important and and you do raise a good point. Um you do raise a very good point. Um uh Robertova, because actually I think there is more stuff here that I think people are desperate for the market to move to the upside. Okay, let's not kid ourselves, right? But again, that's how people ultimately get trashed. And we'll talk about what happens if Kevin Walsh is dovish tomorrow. What happens if he's neutral? What happens if he's hawkish?
What we can expect actually what does history tell us that Kevin Walsh might come in and say. All right. So, like I said, we'll sort of get into all of this, but first and foremost, let's take a look at exactly what is going on with the price action here on uh BTC. So, dump on the dump's the wrong word. I apologize, right? I don't mean dump.
Push down here on the daily candles. So, Bitcoin 65,573 down about 706 bucks. No massive surprise. I think we were all reasonably comfortable that that was probably going to be the the sort of play today and this was probably going to be exactly what we expected. And I guess we got to then understand what's next and um and that's what's going on. John, my man, what's going on? Once the uh ship starts moving in mass, that will be a good sign. Yeah, 100%. Once inks on the paper, everyone's agreed ships are moving freely straight to four moves.
All right. I'll be like, "Yep, okay, cool. We've got a peace deal and everything's interesting. Right now though, we are definitely not quite at that point in my opinion. But um but yeah, so as you can see here, Bitcoin is doing exactly what we thought it would do. It still got rejected off the upper range here off the W pattern, which we talked about yesterday. We haven't moved that line pretty much to the letter. It did get rejected. Now it's coming back.
So that tells us that we've got a couple of things to watch out for here. A retest of the 21-day moving average, which is this red and green line. It goes green if it's bullish, red if it's bearish. just to give you an idea. This obviously part of the two bit indicator.
Um again, you can get that over at 2 bitcrypto.com. It's free. But uh yeah, so this is kind of telling us right now that look, Bitcoin is giving up a little bit of these gains that's coming in.
This becomes the retest. So I believe BTC will retest 65,000. Relatively confident that that's probably going to happen. I think it's interesting when we look at the altcoin market in a minute, but big wick down here on BTC, particularly here on the 12-h hour chart. So we actually did get a positive. Now, if you were here and have been here the last two or three nights, you know that we've set up two potential scenarios that Bitcoin could follow.
One, the upper line here, which is the red line, which gives us a slightly deeper push down here to around 58, excuse me, 50,800, and the slightly shallower, which is between the yellow yellow line. What is wrong with me?
Like, I can literally see it's a white line. Uh, which is slightly below the white line, which gives us a slightly less uh deep correction here down to around $56,000 is kind of where, uh, certainly where I believe the market's going to go. Now, lots of things could happen. For example, if the Trump Iran deal doesn't come through on Friday, you've got to expect a pretty dumping dump. What I think is interesting, and again, I don't want to be that guy that speculates. I don't want to come across as this crazy bearish individual, but do you not think it's super coincidental that Friday is the day that they're going to sign the peace deal and Friday is generally when the markets close for the weekend. and actually follows the same pattern that has followed every invasion, every attack, every tweet, every post, every tariff, everything.
It's all follow the same playbook. So, if we haven't had anything by the time we get to market close from Trump and Iran, you got to hold on to your hats.
Like, I would not be in leverage. I may even be like, we should probably put like a 200x leverage at like 50 bucks short on Bitcoin because I would kind of feel like that it's just nonsense. And actually, this has been all about trying to prop the market up. given the fact Kevin Walsh in my opinion and I'll talk about why I think this is in a minute.
In my opinion is going to have to give a reasonably hawkish monetary outlook. All right, and I'll tell you my rationale and reasons why I think that's going to be it. Uh and also we'll actually put some facts on the table so that we can support it with our narrative. What's going on cheese? Good to see you man.
So, Bitcoin right now, I think, is in a in a is it's in a let's see what happens in 24 hours kind of idea, which again, if you remember, generally speaking, when we talk about Federal Reserve meetings, that is generally a pretty good pattern or even that. So, it's all going to depend on what happens on the morning, and it depends what happens throughout the course of the day. But generally speaking, Federal Reserve meetings tend to uh they tend to pump on announcement. They dump on the fact that people kind of go, nah, that announcement is not actually that great.
it pumps on the uh speaker and then dumps back to normal. Assuming that you get a bullish outcome, you get a bearish outcome, price dumps, everyone kind of goes, "Ah, it's not too bad." Uh, and then everyone's like, "Actually, it's really, really bad cuz Kevin Walsh is telling us that monetary policy is going to be awful and that actually we've got way more pain to come." And then everyone kind of goes, "Ah, screw it." I mean, it probably ends up more like this if I'm honest. But anyway, you get my point. You get my point. So, you know, Bitcoin 655, Ethereum down below 1,800.
We only have a couple of coins are actually bucking the trend on the day, which you can't really take much uh as to what that looked like. Now, I know that Oh, did I have the total three up here? Actually, do I have the total three? Uh, I don't think so. Let me Someone asked about that last night and I can't remember. Uh, tit t boom. Total market cap total three. Oh my god, what is happening? Total three. Okay. Do I not have the total three? No, I uh do I have the total three? It feels like I have the total three. Uh one second everybody. One second. 628. Oh, no. I don't have the total three. Okay, so total three there. Someone asked me to tier this yesterday, which again, you can't really tier the total global market cap, but you know, I guess kind of interesting to think about where we are. So, this is excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. It does actually have stable coins in it. I forgot. We should probably change this one anyway. But, uh Switzerland didn't even know they were.
Yeah, I know. It's all seems a bit weird if I'm honest. It all seems a bit weird, Mike. But, um total three here. But I mean, what do you expect? Again, I am absolutely in the belief that we probably retest the 21-day moving average. Now, what's important with the toll three is if you were going to tear this, which is kind of difficult, but uh it would need to move to around 723, which will give you a little bit more leverage to the upside, but I I don't see it personally uh just at the minute.
I I I believe that they probably stay uh reasonably uh bearish. So, in the water market, Aerodum Finance, some nice little move here, up about 11%. So, we'll take the Aerodum Finance.
Remember, if you stake in it, grats as I am. I'm enjoying those little nice gainers. Monad about 2%. Still not really doing much, but look, it's holding up all right in fairness. XRP 121 down about 1.5. XLM been talking about XLM for a while. I've been saying to people, look out. It's coming. You know, people kind of negate and neglect what's going on with XLM. If you are interested, you want to find out what the hell is going on, go check out the videos I've been releasing on the channel, right? They've been talking about what exactly is going on with XLM that I think most people don't see.
You've also got a generally bearish market. Hype broke a brand new alltime high today. Shout out to anyone that was in hype. I still I'm pissy that we missed this one. I say missed it. I mean some of you guys will have got in. I actually longed hype from I think it was like here. No, I think yeah I was like here somewhere and then it wicked down and then like lit I didn't even set a stop loss. Liquidated me and then look at this. Would have been a great trade but I didn't have a lot of margin to play around with so I ended up getting nuked on that trade. But anyway, such is life. And then memes not really doing too much. Where it gets interesting is down here. So you see the stock market.
So the S&P 500 rally rolling over a little bit. The NASDAQ doing the same.
All down to one big topic which we're going to talk about in just a minute.
The Russell down as well. And obviously the oil carrier trade is down. Assuming assuming that we do get a peace deal on Friday. There's a lot riding on Friday.
There's a lot riding on Friday. Bond market obviously is giving a little bit of a view. SpaceX though absolutely full send in it. Interestingly has actually wicked back down. This might be a nice entry there in SpaceX. But anyway, just my opinion. Hey bro, what's cooking?
Came late. Your thumb means what? Cuz the market price the raise. No. Cheers.
Hold on. Roma. We're going to get into it right now. Okay. So, what did we actually get today? Uh, in fact, let's take a look at this real quick. This is the um this is the cross asset performance for last week. And what's interesting to note here, by the way, is that you had a decentish move on um you know, on Bitcoin. actually kind of rallied up a little bit from where it's kind of been back end or certainly beginning part of the week. So, Bitcoin actually moved up. Old coins having a slightly better move as well. Helicopter always good man. But look at this. The Russell 2000 having a strong strong move. Brent down, gold down. No surprise. All right. But interesting when you look at the asset management.
Okay. So, what do we get today? We got Japan raising its interest rates. Now, this isn't new news. We talked about this last night, but it it is interesting when you start to look at some of the fundamentals that sit behind this and more importantly then, how does that play into it, right? So, they raised their base. Uh oh, Tik Tok, I need to move you guys, don't I? Sorry, Tik Tok. I need to move you guys because they get weird and they ban me and all sorts of weird [ __ ] So, hold on. I'll tell you. Just stick with me because I'm going to talk to you about it. But basically, Japan raised its interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.0%.
Okay, now this is the highest level that Japan's had its interest rate since 1995. Think about that, right? However, however, the twist here, and I think what's important to reference, and we'll touch on it and look at it in just a minute, is that the yen didn't really do anything, okay, which is not particularly great. The yen didn't strengthen on the back of this interest rate, which generally speaking, you do normally see, right? It's about 160 versus the US dollar. So you get 160 yen to aboutund uh to to $1. But the bigger picture here is it does keep the market very much uneasy about the carry trade.
And that's kind of what I want to touch on a little bit as we sort of walk through this as well. Now when you coincide this with what Kevin Walsh is going to talk about tomorrow and we'll touch on him in a minute. Then this all starts to get a bit weird because as much as they've obviously increased the interest rates in Japan, you were then going to be hoping for like a bit of an ease. All right, the DXY might give a little bit more up. stocks would rally, markets will feel a little bit more buoyant. They kind of haven't because the yen should have gained strength and it hasn't, right? So again, we'll sort of discuss discuss this, but its highest interest rates to a 31year high is the war driven energy cost fuel inflation concerns. Again, another reason why Trump needs to get the deal done. He has to get [ __ ] oil flowing out of the straits of our mus. However you look at it, whatever you want to talk about when it comes to it, it absolutely is required to get that moving because it's absolutely damaging loads of stuff as well. So you can see here, look, the decision was improved by 7 to one vote and all conclusions of the bank's two-day policy meeting according to Reuters. So they're absolutely aligned.
They truly believe that they should be pumping rates up, which for the broader markets is actually pretty wild. Now obviously the carry trade is the big thing that people are freaking out about. And remember this is where companies, hedge funds, corporate entities, whatever you want to call it, however you want to look at it, basically go and lend money in Japanese yen converted back to US because they get a cheaper rate 1%. And then they go and invest it in stock markets, NASDAQs, trackers, ETFs, whatever it is. The unwind is when it then becomes more cost effective to hold US versus yen. And then it's everyone selling. All right.
So we got obviously this back in um in 2024 was about $500 billion and obviously everyone totally freaked out when that came in as well. So you know the fact here is that look this is a important reference because look it's still there right the carry trade is still there as much as people me included by the way don't think it's as big as I think many people are kind of taking it out the fact of the matter is though that this is an incredibly dangerous in my opinion setup that we've got. Okay, because while you've got the yen still kind of holding up and we can see that here, by the way. So, this is the Japanese yen and we can ultimately see kind of what's playing out. If we put this in a weekly context, what do you see here? Well, go back to 2024 when the carry trade unwound, right? And if I just extend my lines here that I put on just to kind of give you an example of what is going on, then you can start to correlate these two things. Okay, I know you guys Tik Tok you can't see it, but I'll I'll show you guys in a minute. So whenever we flip above 160 this is deemed as a risk area. This is deemed as okay we might have to step in. Okay we might have to do something. If you go back to 2024 when the big carry trade wound where the big car trade did actually wind through. You can see that we broke through the 160 here. This was back in early of 2024 in July July in April of 2024. We then obviously got a little bit of easing. They increased the interest rates. It was like, "Oh my god, thank god the car trades kind of, you know, moved on." And we then sort of slowly ground that back up as you got a little bit more of an optimistic view equally where you got inflation and you got monetary policy starting to get a little bit tastier before we then hit the 162 which is generally seen as the intervention i.e. the government needs to do something and if you remember they put massive stimulus checks into it. It all went a bit mental. Now, when you then add on top of that, just purely out of interest, the price of BTC, this is kind of where it starts to get pretty interesting. So, again, you want to see the carry trade come down. That generally means you get a conversion into Bitcoin moving higher. Carry trade comes down, Bitcoin goes higher. Okay, it's a very cyclical move. Now, as you can see here where we are right now, the carriage trade is moving up, Bitcoin is coming down. Do we think the carriage trade is or do we think the Japanese yen is going to lose value anytime soon? The answer, no. All right. So, this then becomes a further problem as [clears throat] this kind of marks through. If you go back to when Japan raised its rates uh from 3/4 of a percent to 1%, um the markets didn't panic straight away. So, they kind of went, okay, we could probably put this on here. Actually, let me see if we can do this. uh interest. In fact, B OJ uh interest.
Uh I wonder if that's is that going to give us it? Is that going to give us it there on the market? Uh what the hell?
What what is it coming as? Anyone know?
Anyone know? Uh oh, it's a big green line. Okay. Do we want a green line?
Let's do yellow line. Uh let's do yellow line. Okay. Okay. All right. Down here.
No, that must be the 200 moving average, right? Let's delete that. I don't know why to put that on there. I thought you could maybe get the BOJ interest rate interest rate Japan. Uh Japan's interest rate discount rate for Japan. Okay, maybe this is it.
And what's going on here? International Monetary Fund green line there. Okay, that's not what I want though, is it? Okay, I'll have to try and find where that is. But essentially what you can see there is that you get a very obvious correlation between the price of Bitcoin coming down and the price of uh the Japanese yen going up.
All right. So these are very obvious um correlations between the two things that are happening. And that is kind of where we are right now. Now remember crypto because of it being leveraged will unwind quicker. So again why everyone's trading crypto 24/7. It never turns off.
Which is why for the last like 2 3 weeks, probably even last month, maybe even two months, I've been saying look out for leverage piling in, long leverage is going to be a problem. Now, we touched on it yesterday and we sort of talked about there's a relatively fair split between short and longs. But the more leverage that piles in, the bigger the risk, the bigger the risk means the bigger the unwind potential.
The bigger the unwind potential means that price could significantly decline based on that unwind. Now, again, at the same time, nothing could happen.
everything moves on and actually we kind of just get in a world where it's kind of well but the fact of the matter is that you will see a big spike in Bitcoin it will sell off right doesn't mean that we have to see a complete collapse in the market uh but it will it will generally see a flurry of liquidations we'll see a big spike in it and actually when you kind of look at some of these by the way again remember last time $500 billion is what was the unwind from 2024 uh Bitcoin slid about slid about 15% from that price target well Bitcoin right now if you were to assume that um you know Bitcoin's around 60,000 go 15% down. Where do you get to with BTC?
That's the question we got to ask ourselves. Well, the answer is you get to about $45,000 the lower end of the expectation that we might get to on the price of BTC. So again, pretty interesting theory to [clears throat] certainly to kind of think about as that comes in. Now, it is important to understand here that that doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to get the same thing again.
Okay, so the g the you know the founder billion dollar unwind on the carry trade might not actually happen and there's a couple of things that we need to kind of look at in order to understand how this can play out. Now one of these important things here would be the bank of Japan's risk versus reward or risk ratio. And look this kind of gives us a bit of a flavor as to what to expect here. So Japan's markets have exhibited seemingly contradictory combinations i.e. you have inflation going up, but at the same time, you've got kind of jav Japanese government bond yields going up as well, which the two things are kind of pretty interesting. But what it does tell us is that the equity market as well as probably stocks are really uncomfortable right now. Super uncomfortable. Things like fiscal burdens, and I don't want to turn this into a political live stream because I think it's important not to, but these will be things like increased immigration. There would be decreased uh trade routes. There would be tariff implications, defense tightening, fiscal spending, all this kind of stuff that we know Japan's been doing. We know that's been happening essentially. Now, this is a problem. Now, Japan returning to monetary tightening can, you know, trigger this this carry trade here. So, what you can see on the screen, and I know you can't see it, Tik Tok, all right, but but I'm trying try trying my best to kind of explain it is it just gives you an idea of kind of what we've seen price. So the carry trade risk ratio is the red line and then the JPY or the Japanese coot um index which is obviously the um the Japanese yen and etc that kind of comes as well. So this is important to understand because this ultimately tells us what is actually going on right and this is kind of where we got to get to. Now the coot index is I guess the the volume of people shorting the yen. All right so I don't just so I'm super clear here with everybody. Right? I am not some sort of weird guru. I didn't do an economics degree. Like, I'm not saying anything like that. But these are people basically assuming that the price of the yen is going to go down. Why? Because you've got tightening fiscal policy.
They're trying to drive the yen down.
They're doing everything they can in order to kind of bring it down. Now, what you generally get though, and the blue line that you can see is this exact thing. So, these are markets shorting right now on the yen, which is kind of interesting. But what do you notice here on the chart? When you get a massive amount of increased shorts, then the carry trade risk comes down. Okay, it's important to think about whenever you get it the opposite way and you get loads of negative, you tend to get the price move to the upside. Okay, which is kind of interesting, right? So again, what does it mean? Well, when we get the carryto- risk ratio spiking, the favorable riskreward dynamics of the carriage trade attract massive influence. When people think the carriage trade is about to [ __ ] unwind and fall to pieces, people short the market, which essentially means it then pulls it down. Okay, so again, you got to think about Wayne, what's going on, my man? Good see. So, what should we be looking at right now? And how do we then define what is going to happen with this particular problem? Now, again, just for complete clarity here, this might end up being absolutely nothing and we kind of and don't need to worry about it, but Japan's 10year yield is the one that essentially has been pushing inflation pressures. it's at 2.744%.
So the same way we look at the 10 and the 2-year T uh yield curve when we talk about recession and we talk about US inflation, it is critical to look at this over here right now Japan i.e. I can't remember her name but the you know like the president or whatever she is of Japan has already said that they will absolutely take decisive action to defend the yen and foreign reserves saw record monthly drops after in intervention efforts i.e. We'll protect the yen. We're going to sell global assets. We'll sell treasuries because we don't give a flying [ __ ] The other thing to think about will be the Nikki.
So, when we look at the CNN futures for the day, what does the Nikki do? This is going to tell us what is happening. You want to see the Nikki selling off, which will strengthen the yen. And that actually means that the unwind essentially won't do it. The Nikki is probably one of the best examples where you can look at it because it tracks leverage positions. And what you want to see with a strengthen in yen and a selling off of the Nikki is that the shorts will get essentially wiped out of the market. Uh sorry, longs get wiped out of the market. Okay, the VIX volatility index exactly the same as the S&P 500 is what another night another sign will be. Now, why is this important? Right? And what and you might be thinking, well, what the [ __ ] has this got to do with anything? Like you're just talking about Japan. No one really cares. It's not really moved the market. If anything, you are wrong because the market's actually held up today. So, you are just trying to find some sort of content to talk about. And your answer is correct. All right. I I am trying to find some content to talk about. Obviously, I'm joking, right?
This is important stuff. But what does it mean then going forward for Bitcoin uh and the broader cryptocurrency market? Because there is obviously some key things that we need to understand and more importantly how this plays out.
Kevin Walsh. Okay. Now, he's obviously going to come out tomorrow going to give us his first ever monetary view of what is going in the US. And there are some key things to think about because there are some key opportunities that Kevin Walsh may come out. Now, he'll take one of three stands. He'll either be bullish, i.e. dovish on the market.
Yeah. Well, it's been a rough time. It's all drone pals fall. The labor markets.
Okay. And we'll do the we'll do the um we'll do the um whatchamacallit in a minute. The bingo sheet. We'll do that in a minute.
Okay. Because again, it is kind of important to think about. But, you know, he could come out and be like, "Okay, it's fine. It's okay. We do have an expectation that we will be able to lower the rate because we're going to drive growth. We're going to drive the economy. We're going to get GDP moving.
Like it's going to be fine. Trump may obviously do the kind of thing where he tries to weaken the dollar, which essentially would mean that we have an easing in liquidity narratives. Okay?
So, he may come out and be dobbish. All right? He's going to interest held flat.
Let's not kid ourselves. That's exactly where they're going to go. Now, he could come out and and be relatively balanced.
All right? He could give a view of look markets are a stable which is probably a word he's going to use actually but markets are stable the job markets you know okay um we're going to take some views of data specifically from CPI and the PCE and the jobs report and ultimately then we'll make decisions based on what that data tells us. Okay.
So, he come out and be pretty flat, right? It's neither here nor there. It probably gets you a bit of a bit of a problem. My personal view, and I said this at the start of the live stream, is that I think he comes out and he is actually hawkish. Okay? Why? Because he's going to have to keep rates higher for longer. You're going to have a stronger dollar. Yields are going to continually move up. And ultimately, for crypto holders, people are going to be less asked about getting into this kind of asset. I don't know where he can come out and be doubbish. And I think the fact that Trump is uh going for this peace deal on Friday, I I I am more and more exactly aligned to what I thought on the live stream on Sunday, which is I think it's bollocks.
And I don't believe that there is as clear-cut um view as what Trump's saying. But then importantly, I do think that he uh will have to then talk about what they're going to do. They're going to look at the data and all the rest of it. So I I don't believe there's a way that he doesn't come out um in my opinion. Right. And if you look at the data from what the predictions are, then we are in a world of a 64% likelihood chance of a rate increase by December. So even the data is right now telling us that we're probably going to see a rate hike versus a rate cut. It's bad news for assets. Okay, so couple of things to think about, right? And I think what you should be looking for tomorrow and certainly some of the things that could come out. Okay, does he talk at all? In fact, let's bring the let's we need to bring the um um let's bring the bingo card up and we can stick some bits in there. Oh [ __ ] Where is it? Uh where's the bingo card?
Or do I need to do custom?
Oh, but I've typed customer. What am I doing here?
There we are. Custom bingo card. Is that it? Okay, cool. Cool. So, I've got the bingo card here. Look, here it is.
Bingo. We'll call it We'll call it the FOMC card. Right. So, again, shout out your ideas that we'll put in here. But again, I'm just going to give you some some thoughts and ideas that I uh I think you'll have. So, importantly, does let me just kind of move this so I can type a little bit. I know it's going to be weird and you might see the microphone a little bit higher in the screen, but it's just so I can see my keyboard underneath. Okay. So, easing talks gone.
Does he talk at all about potentially reducing rates? I don't think he does. I I don't think he does. I think he'll talk about keeping rates higher for longer. I think he's going to talk about the fact that he can't reduce rates and then it's all a little bit weird. Right.
I don't think he's going to do that as well. Um don't forget we do actually have monetary policy which going to come down as well. Right. So the dot plot which we'll get tomorrow as well which will be all members uh in fact we're not we're not do that.
that that would be uh all I'm going to put all agreed all agreed hawks. So what do I mean by that? That he'll say everybody on the board has agreed that we think this is going to be the way forward. All right.
Onoro finance started a thread.
Interesting.
The other bit would be inflation more than growth. I.e. he's going to be like look we're going to have to tackle inflation. We know it's going up.
There's a real risk to consumers.
They're probably going to spend more.
And actually, before we can even start talking about potentially rate cuts, we're gonna have to do this. All of this, by the way, is bad news. All right, just, you know, again, I don't want to be that guy, but it's all bad news in my opinion. Um, he's probably going to give a view of uh he's probably going to give a view on Iran peace deal.
Uh, guys, make sure you shouting out as well, and we'll get the added up as well. Wayne says, "Should be trying to get my daughter into crypto. Give her a hello, please. Her name is Holly." Shout out to Holly. What's going on? Hey, you should definitely be getting into cryptocurrency. Unless you're like five, then it's weird. um getting to Peppa Pig. But yeah, I'm in cryptocurrency.
It's the way forward and by the time you get to the age that I am, uh you'll be driving a way better car than I am as well. So yeah, shout out to you Holly and your dad's a legend. So uh welcome in. Welcome in. We appreciate you as well. Um which is good. I wonder if the prediction markets have a wash lows rates by year end if I uh I'd put money on it. I remember Greenspan Walsh's mentor. I mean, he probably will because he wants Trump to do it. Trump wants him to do it, which is kind of wild. Um so yeah. Um so you know these are just some things I think is going to kind of come in and certainly some of the things we need to kind of uh keep a very much watchful eye on. The other thing will be what does the Bank of Japan do? What does the interest rates do and then ultimately kind of how that plays out in terms of what goes on for the crypto market. Again we talked about some of those key things to watch out for. Where does that look at in terms of I guess just some basic stuff? We've talked about the USD JPY. Uh price 160 is caution 162 would be an intervention risk. you got a uh a sudden drop in the USD versus the Japanese yen would look for a potential unwind beginning. So if you have price alerts, you probably want to set them because that might tell us that the market's about to completely uh collapse. Um hi, do you need a programmer? Um I don't think so. Not for a live stream. I think I'm all right. I think I'm all right. Um and yeah, I mean look, the carry trade is I mean you could argue and say it's a little bit like hidden leverage, isn't it? It's there. people know it's there, but they don't really know what the heck to do with it. So, I think that's kind of where we have to be a little bit mindful of it. But yeah, do fire out the bingo card stuff so we can get that added in. We can get our view of what Cavino uh is going to give us and certainly how that's going to play out over the course of tomorrow. Like I said, we'll be streaming the whole thing. Uh or certainly we'll be streaming afterwards. Anyway, I've got a big work job going on. But but yeah, so uh anyway, so that's kind of my view.
All right. I think it kind of plays out a little bit more bearish than we um than we expect. Now, there is some positive news as always. There are some benefits to what's going on. You know, we're not all super super hawks here.
There are some good news stories out there. One being that the iShares Bitcoin premium ETF is now live. That's pretty exciting. Expect the price of Bitcoin to go down uh as they start to accumulate cheaper cheaper Bitcoin. Just saying by the way, just saying. Uh did launch about it's around 52.96. So marked me up on the day. But hey, it's good news, right? It's good news. We can't be arguing about that. And then also you've got this is a super interesting headline. Now remember, Mara Digital sold all their Bitcoin to go into data centers, right? All into data centers. They were like, man, the Bitcoin mining era is over. Like, let's get the hell out of there. Let's get out of there. And they've now come back, bought $100 million worth of bit, sorry, $67 million worth of Bitcoin wanting to get back into this market. They've been away and now they want to come back.
Pretty interesting, right? Pretty interesting if you ask me. And then look the last one which again I think kind of plays out to what we've just been told about but US yields hold at a one month low as the market awaits an Iran peace deal. So even if you are like in a world of going oh it's all about peace and everything's going to be fine and donic weight hanging on whether this deal is actually true or not. And I think it's almost hilarious that we are still yet to get any announcement formally from Iran and that everything is coming through Pakistan at the minute. Like you got to be in a world of being like uh you know you know kind of wild right?
Kind of wild right now if you ask me. So again just my opinion and I could be wrong. All right. I could definitely definitely be wrong but we'll see. We'll see. Um, don't forget, by the way, there's been like an agreement of like $300 million or something going to Iran and all sorts of crazy stuff. Uh, sorry, $300 billion dollars going to Iran, um, for reconstructional costs, which is like absolutely effing insane.
Right now, again, there's lots of debate about whether this is true or not. There is definitely a debate of whether it's happening. Iran officials are claiming it. Trump's kind of saying no mean look I just can't be in a world where um it kind of gets weird. I think the numbers I've been heard chucked about is about 100 million that could go in it. So you know that's all a bit crazy to think about if you ask me. So you know the bank of the Japan the bank of the Japan Bank of Japan may just be the start of what is essentially the move further down because I mean we can't wake up a little bit more. Uh but it is certainly worthwhile thinking about. So anyway, let me know what you think in the chart by the way. Let me know what you think of the chart. Let me bring the charts back up for all of you guys here on the talk. Just so you can see that as we start to just walk through a little bit more here on price action and start to build some ideas and concepts and thoughts of what might happen while at the same time. By the way, don't forget do make sure that you are sending through your uh your things for the bingo card as well. If not, we can do it at the end for sure. End of war passing of clarity. Uh just delete that BMX. That's annoying. I wonder if the prediction markets I said that didn't I could Japan just print an easy effect of interest rate hike well it doesn't help that's the problem is it they could print money and buy treasuries I guess um but you are then over stimulating your economy so they want to strengthen it don't forget the more you print the weaker your dollar or weaker your currency value becomes so that's why Japan's such an interesting one because yeah they never had to but they've got so much kind of pressure coming in right now but um yeah I don't necessarily think printing is the right thing when you're raising rates like it's really bad. You're just weakening your power or your purchasing power which means your trade routes become even worse. Like it's just a bad news story really. It's bad news. What happened with SpaceX shares pumped today, Mouse? It's like over 200 bucks.
I went absolutely wild today. So yeah, went absolutely wild. Walsh will be asked about Fed Independence. 100%.
100%. Yeah.
Fed independence is a good one. He'll also I'll just put I'll put Fed in. That that makes sense.
He'll also be asked about uh speak to Trump. They'll say, "Did Donald's Trump, you know, did M President Trump speak to you today?" I think that'll be another one as well. Kraka because nobody says, "I don't think the war is over. There's plenty of time for Iran to break the agreement. They have been doing it for decades." I agree. I I mean, if you if you just think about it logically, and I've been thinking about this most of the day as well, by the way. Um but you kind of say, "Well, they agreed a ceasefire, they've agreed a peace deal, and what? It doesn't get an action till Friday." You're like, "Why would it be Friday? Oh, because the markets are open on Saturday and Sunday. That's kind of weird, right? Kind of weird, right? Just saying.
Just saying. Don't forget, I'm going to go I'm going to go first time I'm going uh I'm going notebook for Walsh. I think he's a notebook kind of guy as opposed to a laptop man. Um yeah, sorry. End of war, passing of Clarity Act, a sharp decline in oil price, weakening gold, and stable interest rate creates macro confinement that many analysts believe is a higher favor for Bitcoin. Uh yeah, all of those things are true. The Clarity Act, I think, is a bit of a smok and mirrors thing, though, cuz people that think that's getting passed on July the 4th, I just think is just not going to happen in my opinion. Interesting analysis tonight. Good work to a bit.
Does BTC have any inverse correlation to oil prices? Not really. Not really, because oil right now is driven solely and completely on whether the straight of our moves is open or closed or even the thought or conceptual idea that it's open or closed. So it's hard to kind of say that they two do have a correlation because I don't now normally do they maybe so but yeah I I don't I don't think the only reason you could correlate them at the minute is the assumption that it's the it's the it's the view of what's happening in the streets of bomb.
So yeah uh so they've agreed not to bomb each other till Friday. I mean I mean allegedly it's over and it's gonna be fine and there's a deal coming but I'm struggling to believe why the deal would be Friday and not just hey let's not do it. Let's agree a deal. shake some hands, which either means there is significant amounts of money about to be exchanged hands, there is clearly some debate about the nuclear program. I mean, what would be really mental is if it comes out and they're like, "Oh, yeah, there isn't actually any nuclear stuff in Iran." You're like, "What?"
Now, people speculate, and this isn't me, by the way, so you know, but just my my research has taken me to the point, but many people believe that all all Iran are doing is stalling. Like, and that could I mean, think about it. That could play out, couldn't it? Store for a week, build, build bill, build build, try and get some sort of nuclear bomb because don't forget once Iran if if let's call it not not when if Iran do get the capacity to have a nuclear bomb like you're over. It's like North Korea.
I mean, they'll always have a bomb and there'll always be that slight doubt in people's mind that they may just go completely mental and blow everything up. All right, so we do need to be mindful of that. But I mean, I could see the scenario playing out where uh what do you think happens if they they cut rates tomorrow? the markets will freak the [ __ ] out and everything will tank its ass off because they will assume that Kevin Walsh has come in and gone, "Oh [ __ ] we are heading to a recession. I need to cut rates." So the markets will totally lose their mind and I think you would see a monstrous crash.
Monstrous. You'd get so much unwind in the market would be unbelievable because basically everyone will totally lose their mind that Kevin Walsh is a not not independent. B driven by what Trump says and see will irrationally drop rates.
Let's just be dead clear about where we sit. He cannot drop rates tomorrow. He can't drop them. Not a chance. If he drops rates tomorrow, he's a puppet on a string. And I uh from the Fed Independence perspective would believe that it's like um wild. Uh Joe, sorry. What do you say Joe? My apologies. Joe says uh Greenspan was around before Trump. Point I am making is when everyone says raise rates, Walsh will lower them. Not because Trump told him uh to. It's because it's been Walsh's philosophy before Trump.
I mean, it's possible. I mean, he still wants to keep his independence, doesn't he, to the for the Federal Reserve and um you know, etc. The problem he's got, though, is if he if he does genuinely raise sorry, lower rates, that's [ __ ] mental. It's mental. Like there's he can't he can't lower rates tomorrow. He can't lower the rates tomorrow. It would be it would literally be crazy. You would you would the markets would totally lose their mind. Totally lose their mind. So um you know whether he does I know he's not a big believer in the balance sheet. I mean there may be a big announcement the balance sheets getting reduced but yeah it' be pretty wild if he does. That would be pretty wild. A rate could definitely pump crypto. I I think for the short term I I don't believe it would pump it at all in any meaningful way. Um I I genuinely think if if he does that it would be like what what the hell like what like okay this guy's come in Trump wants rate cuts. He definitely shouldn't cut rates and he's cut rates like he winded me up.
Um I think it would be pretty interesting if that was to be the case but I mean look we'll see. I mean crazy things have happened but yeah I'm not sure that that's going to be um going to be a thing. No chance of break up tomorrow. Yeah, I don't think so either.
I don't think so either. Do we think he says good morning, good afternoon, hello? What do we think he says? I might go for hello. You know, hello everybody.
I'm Kevin Walsh. Welcome in. Or do you think he says good afternoon? I'm going to go good. Should we go good afternoon?
I kind of feel like he's going to go hello.
Hello and welcome to the first Kevin Walsh study green span. I will stick it on my list up here for sure.
The other thing that I mean the other thing to think about by the way with with um with Kevin Walsh was we talked about this last night when they shouldn't have been cutting rates he was advocating for them or the other way around I can't remember good evening afterwards I mean it could be so Alan Greenspan and American economics who served as a 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve uh nominated by Reagan Many argue that the easy money policies of the Fed during Greenspan tenure, including the practice known as Greenspan put were a lending cause of the dot oh sorry were a leading cause of the dotcom bubble and supreme mortgage crisis later occurring within a year. So yeah, so easy money policies. So that was yeah so so I mean I am taking this at very very top level. So I don't I don't want to come across as thinking I know it all because I really really don't by the way. But if I'm reading that correctly, many have argued that the easy money policies of the Fed during Greenspan's tenure, i.e. he kept inflation rate low and allowed borrowing to be very easy, including the practice known as the Greenspan put, which was monetary policy response to financial crisis. Excis the beginning of the financial crash of 199 successfully is addressing various crisis. It became controversial as a lead to periods, hold on a minute, of extreme speculation da uh mort investment banks overusing the put for indirect quantitative easing and okay so what it's saying here and and again I will definitely take a look at this in a bit more detail but basically he ran the Fed super super loose on monetary policy allowed massive amounts of loans to be done on very very low interest and basically created the dotcom bubble burst and the massive unwind for the uh um mortgage crisis.
Yeah, Kevin Walsh is not reducing rates.
[laughter] The Wall Street Journal said it tarnished his reputation with Yale economist Robert Schiller argues that once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlook for speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed.
Greenspan has argued that the housing bubble was not a result of low interest short-term rates, but rather a worldwide phenomenon caused by the progressive decline in long-term interest rates. A direct consequence of the relationship between high savings rates in the developing world and the inverse in the developed world. Pretty interesting, right? I'll definitely take a look at it a bit more detail. I'll definitely take a look at it. But uh I mean that's interesting to understand that they some not all some believe he created the [ __ ] financial crisis of the 1987 stock market. 2 months after his confirmation, Greenspan said immediately following the 1987 stock market crash that the Fed affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system. Although the Federal Reserve followed its announcement with monetary policy actions which became known as the Greenspan put, attributed his re-election loss to a sluggish response uh with Democratic President Bill Clinton reappointed Greenspan as a consultant to him on economic matters.
Pretty interesting, right? That's pretty interesting if you ask me, but I'll definitely take a look at a bit more. I think it definitely aligns to the narrative though that um that Walsh will be in my opinion hesitant at best to even think about reducing rates even if Trump's going to be the guy which I think is important to think about that Trump came out and was like oh you know let's kind of see what happens like you know give him time interesting uh what would Gary Gensler do yeah bring it back it's good old Selmo good to see you man welcome in hope you're doing well buddy hope you're doing Well, yeah, pretty wild, right? Pretty wild. So, yeah, I mean, the FOMC is going to be an interesting one tomorrow. And it's not even about the outcome. The CME Fed Watch is like 98 or 99% guaranteed that it's going to be flat. It's all going to be about what Mr. Walsh says every single bit. I mean, look at that. There was even a 0.4% chance that they were going to increase rates. That'sing crazy. Like, genuinely, that's pretty wild, right? That is pretty wild to think about. So, yeah. I mean, let's see what happens. It's going to be crazy. I think it's going to be pretty crazy.
All right. Still looking for a short squeeze. Yeah, I mean, yeah, potentially.
Definitely a potential here.
Interesting. You should watch some of the great docs on YouTube about the stock market and how it takes 100 of a second to execute a buy or yourself. I mean, the stock market's a crazy place, isn't it? Let's not kid ourselves. like that is a wild ride out there for many many of people. I think uh not somewhere I would ever ever want to trade personally but yeah maybe Trump is some sort of black uh male Trump got the trouble maybe directly coming from him.
So oh Trump may drop the I mean he I mean he could but I mean it would be the worst decision ever. It would genuinely be the worst decision ever if he drops the rates. It would literally crash the markets. I I I think I think personally, but I mean we could probably put I think you could put the interest rates on here, but I mean I think Tim kind of told us about this United States interest rate look. So kind of gives us an idea. Why is he not putting it on there? Is it because I'm doing it? Maybe it's cuz I'm doing it like that. Oh, I think it probably is actually. Uh same scale. Is that going to work? Nope. That's annoying. Why is it doing that? Hm.
Uh, United States interest rates a runtime error.
United States. Is that what he put on there? The price index effect of federal Oh, Fed funds rate. Or maybe like maybe that's what it needs to be. Funs rare. Uh, it's still been weird.
Uh, fine. Okay then. Stupid thing. Good or bad is what Trump has been calling for. I think they'll talk about raising it. Yeah, I think he will as well. It's going on OPF. Good to see you, man.
Welcome in. I Yeah, I can't get into a place where I don't think uh Yeah, hype did make a new high alltime high on hype today. Yeah, I just don't think he can come in and be be like, "Oh, yeah, no, we're absolutely fine." like don't stress it like yeah it's going to be a pretty wild day I think and uh we'll get we'll get a flavor for what it feels like. Don't forget do let me know we've got a few things that we're missing so far. We the bingo card is not very full.
All right so if you've got some predictions and you think what the Kevin Walsh is going to do then uh chuck it on the bingo card and we'll do it. We'll do it. The nature of the beast planet finance documentary on YouTube is amazing. Okay. I'll definitely take a look at it for sure.
Definitely take a look at it for sure.
He can't lower rates without any of the commit. Yeah. And I don't think they will. I mean, Christopher Waller was kind of in a place where he might have been able to uh roll over. Well, not roll over, it's probably not the right word actually, but maybe in the world that he could agree to it. But yeah, I mean, I don't I generally probably in a world where I don't think you get an interest rate this year. Now, whether the crypto market cares is a bigger debate, but I don't necessarily think we get an interest rate cut this year. I don't believe that to be the same here in the UK. I mean, I don't know if you got did you guys see the Trump Kama thing? Not that I want to make this political, by the way. That's not what I'm doing. But at the same time, you got to you got to appreciate the grind. It's hilarious.
Um, I should saved it. Actually, I don't know if you guys have seen it.
It's pretty interesting. Pretty interesting.
Um, good. I think you go on stage, grab, and say, "Let's buy people."
Can you imagine? I'm in a party. Come on, Kevin. Full send it, bro. Full send it. I've been accumulating chain link for a month. It's the only thing in my portfolio that's green. Nice. Yeah, Chen's a good chat, man. Like chain link. Uh oh, cracker jack. I thought you were talking about me then for a second. It is insane. I mean, we've just p we've just published a um a law now that comes in next summer which bans anyone under 16 from accessing social media. But don't worry about it. You can prove it by doing a digital ID that you're actually over the age of 16. It's like [ __ ] off. I remember being underage and having to go and like get ID and trying to get like come on. I don't need to prove that I'm old enough. You can see that I'm old enough. Like what the hell?
It's wild, right? I don't think he makes this year out personally. I think he ends up getting I think they they either call an election or something will happen. But yeah, I I think um I think he's out mate personally if I'm honest.
[snorts] Um turn around and moon the crowd. I mean that'd be pretty wild as well.
That would be pretty crowd. Um I think let me think what else they might ask.
Uh he'll ask ask about I'm going to put ask about SM i.e. Steven Myron and what he did and about giving his chair up. What else we got going on? Are we going to go I'm going blue blue suit.
Come on. You guys need to get some more stuff on here as well. Uh so yeah, it's exactly why they're doing it. BMAX.
Exactly why they're doing it. Yeah.
Social media is the biggest you can get.
Exactly. Well, it's like YouTube. Like YouTube has so much stuff on it. So much stuff in it that's actually educational.
So you're now all of a sudden like, oh yeah, so you can't you can't access that sort of stuff. It's wild, bro. Thoughts on XRP? Yeah, pretty bullish. I don't forget I do cover XRP every day on the channel. We dive deeper into a lot of stuff that's going on. You can check it out by heading over to YouTube. You can also head to crypto.com and keep up to date with all the latest here. Look at these cool thumbnails I've been building. So you can always keep up to date with exactly what is going on here by heading up to tubcrew.com. You also have the pulse indicator, some excellent you uh trading platforms, our trading group, 12 bucks a month, insane freaking value. Um which is going to be great. So do check those out as well.
I've never uh heard him speak. I think there is an idea for bingo. Yeah, I mean I I I think he's pretty softly spoken.
Bit boring.
I bet they say you require digital ID to view a backdoor job because I mean probably Yeah.
Um it's it's wild. It's it is it is genuinely wild like some of the crazy stuff going on. Like it's insane. And then you kind of get this weird like gaslighting stuff where they're like, "Oh, you know, we stopped the boats.
We've stopped the boats, baby. No boats in the last 5 days." You're like, "Yeah, the seas have literally been the disaster uh that it is." So yeah, pretty interesting, right? Pretty interesting.
Yeah, I'm going to be posting another one in there tonight, Mark. Again, these are high-risk players, but they also are and have been uh quite beneficial. So, yeah, pretty interesting. Yeah, Tape's making a move right now, which is kind of nice. But yeah, I've got one more coming in there. Uh, take a look at mine. It's up67% today. That's wild, actually. Yeah, we called this at like a 6K market cap, bruh, it's nearly at 200 G's. Let's go, baby. That is a big old move. Pumping back to the upside. big like a big insider s not insider sorry big whale wallet dumped here but yeah starting to move back up on tape I actually did buy back into this as well I bought back here down here somewhere I was like ah screw it 79k mag cap I'm sending that still low and hold accounts like this could get to a million really but yeah there is another one coming in the discord group a little bit later on tonight so look out for that again it's a potential high-risk potential high-risisk player but if I was to tell you that it has been out a while it has no volume and it only has a few holders.
And when I spoke to the developer, the developer has actually launched two previous coins, both of which made it to about $40 million market caps, listed on some of the top exchanges on the globe.
And that he was like, "Yeah, man. We're going to start pushing this. Like, we'd love to kind of get you to do a bit of content for us." I'm like, "All right, bro. Yeah, let me know about it. Let's do it." Um, so look out for that. It's going to be pretty good. Hopefully.
Hopefully.
Hopefully. Um, yeah. Well, this this one is I mean I'm just kind of confirming a few bits with him because I'm like I I'm happy to share this with the with the trade group. Again, it is high risk, but there is an opportunity. I think that this is like a get in and then we'll start making it happen. Um so yeah, but I'll share it all in the discord uh for you guys. If you want to get access to that, by the way, got to join the pre premium group. You can do it here on YouTube by becoming a crypto king as a member or you can do it over at tuberc.com and sign into the trading group and you get access to all those things which is good. Which is good. I agree. I don't want mount uh my own social media either but they are doing the B. I mean this is the thing I don't really understand.
Right. And it may be me. All right. I may be old school but like here's a here's a novel thought. just make it so your kids are not thick that they don't do stupid stuff. And I know people go stupid we talking about kids are kids but I know like good kids and I know bad kids and I'm not saying my kids are like the best kids in the world because they do generally mess about and all the rest of it. However, if I say to them do not cross the road, don't put your hand in the oven, don't clock your hand in the door, like they generally do it like they listen. Why? Because we tell them about it, we talk to them about it. And I think, you know, when you start getting the state basically managing the potential of your kids, I just think it's a bad scenario. A bad scenario. Helicopter says, uh, Walsh is only one vote out of many in the end.
Yeah. I mean, no one else is going to go for rate cuts at all. Even if Walsh did it, it'd be like Steven Myron.
And what networks can be ready with a billion of that coin? It's on an Ethereum. So, it's an ERC20 token. All right. See, ERC20. So, uh, Xand, you're in the you're in the premium Discord, right? You're you're definitely in there. just go into the alpha signals.
It'll I'll post it in there a bit later on.
Um but yeah, so you'll you'll you'll get access to that, so don't worry about it.
Again, these are high risk. You can't hold me against it, but so far so good.
Um in the general, you know, sentiment that we've got in that group, they've all been pretty good. So, let me just ban this individual that just decided they're going to come in here and mute block. Can I not block it?
Continue. See you later. See you later, bro. Uh, that's great to hear. I'm holding a couple of thousand XP. Nice, bro. Yeah, I mean, look, rolling it rolling it together. Hopefully, it does some good stuff. We're down for it.
Let's hope so. Okay, let's hope so. Ono, I mean, Hondo's been having some decent moves recently. Still within this channel, though. Look, I mean, as much as we don't really revisit some of these coins, just look at where is right now, doing exactly what we said, probably pushes up to around 40 cents if the market comes with us before getting rejected back down. So, you know, volume is kind of coming back in again and um yeah, one to keep your eyes out for.
It's holding the 21-day moving average.
Slightly bullish on the lower time frame. Still with a little bit of caution here to uh to watch out the 8 hour probably giving you the best indicator that there is an element of upside momentum. Still very very much mindful though on what that looks like and then likewise on the hour. So yeah, I mean watch out. I think probably does push a little bit higher personally and uh like I said the indicator is giving us some good vibes as well. But yeah, lots of good stuff. I think it's important to understand as well with they're still tokenizing like they tokenized the SpaceX um shares and all the rest of it which is kind of interesting as well. So yeah, gold is selling off again. No surprise. I think um look, we talked about gold for a while. I am definitely in this place where I think the gold top's already been in and I think it probably comes down. Silver is a similar story as well, but right now holding this support line that's been in there for the longest time, but you know, my view silver is kind of, you know, rolling over and and heading back down. So, um the one to watch will be things like the DXY. It'll be important to watch copper and equally the Russell. Has the Russell topped out?
Because if the Russell's topped out, this can start to get pretty interesting as well. So, yeah, it's fine. It's fine in my opinion.
Uh, Walsh will be asked if he and Jerome are buddies. Oh yeah. Yeah, that's a good one. Um, if I put JP handover, everyone knows what that means, right? Hand over. Like, oh, did you and Jerome Pal hand over?
Um, yeah, pretty interesting. Pretty pretty interesting.
Uh, Fairground, what's going on?
Highline says BTC. Yeah, we just had BTC up on the chat. BTC, bro. 65 785. So, yeah, starting to give a little bit more up and starting to try and move a little bit further up, but again, I I don't think there's a lot of merit in this move and I do think it probably pushes back down, but that's just my opinion. I think copper will decline from gold and silver due to the high demand. Yeah, I think copper will probably have a little bit of a rally. Personally, I think the copper will probably just have a little bit of a rally. So, yeah.
Um, I think I'm going to I'm going to put Ray Hikes.
I'm going to put Ray Hikes. I think he talks about I'm going to say he talks about Ray Hikes. Uh, he'll talk about um stable jobs market. I'm going to say that as well.
Um, right.
Danny, I don't even know what that means, but Oh, yeah. Danny's there.
Look, mouse. Never say how many you own.
Oh god. CL is doing the same thing. This they will get everybody to have digital IDs to control them. Yeah. So what's happening in China? Casey's in the building. What's going on my man? Good to see you buddy. Hope you're doing well. Hope you're doing well.
Um but yeah, we need some more bits. We need 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 uh things for the uh Federal Reserve tomorrow uh to understand exactly what Monsure Walsh is going to say. Uh, I think he might I'm going to put in there that he's going to be asked about Bitcoin holdings because he did hold Bitcoin, isn't he? I'm going to say that he gets asked about it. That's my opinion. Hey, I missed most of the stream. It's all good, Casey. Don't worry about it, my man. The main thing is you're here now.
You're here. What about tariffs? Do you think he gets asked about effect of effect of oops of tariffs, right? Um, let's get that working again. Hopefully that's going to sort that out.
would be interested to know how many other countries have have or are being in the same social media band. I don't think many if I'm honest. I feel like not many. I feel like it's like a weird UK thing for whatever reason. It's kind of a bit mental to be honest. But yeah, I don't know how many are contemplating a ban. Like it's kind of crazy if you think about it.
Or Elon's trillions.
Yeah. Uh and we'll put um fuel prices.
Yeah, that's a good shout. That's a good shout. I kind of feel like we need a bit more about him, though. On time. Do we think he'll be he'll be on time for his first meeting? Won't he on time for his first meeting? He's got to be. Got to be. Um, one, two, three, four, five. We need seven more things.
Oh my god, it's it's 10:00. Where the hell has that stream gone? Bro, you are joking me right now. Like, seriously, like, where has that stream actually gone? Like, the stream I've been live an hour and what? Nah, I got it right. Is that right? That is ridiculous. That is actually ridiculous.
That is ridiculous. Um, okay. What else do we think that Walsh might get asked about tomorrow?
Uh, Dar's going to Yeah, it seems like a distraction from the bigger issue. I mean, yeah. I mean, it's definitely something. It definitely it all just feels a bit weird at the minute.
Apparently Netherlands are going to introduce it to I mean yeah I mean when you start talking about unrealized gains that's where it all starts to get just a little bit mental. The the one you've got a little bit though in my opinion and and maybe not the most popular opinion but the reason why the Labor government in the UK is trying to tax everybody trying to find all these different places they can go and tax people trying to find all these places to get money from is so they can give it to the welfare state. I don't care what people think. People think I'm an [ __ ] That's fine. But you know whenever you're running a deficit because of welfare spending like it's mental. It it should never ever be in a world that you are better off not working than working. Never. It's crazy.
I know George Wars think everyone everything changes for the better uh when that be Judy Shelton uh the gold book takes over. That's pretty wild, right?
Wick rider. What is that?
XRP to 10k. Yeah, I actually was listening to Blockchain Backer a little bit today. I was in the car driving back and I just have him on the background and he was saying that he was looking at the sentiment around XRP and he was like, "Yeah, and I and I went over to XRP and I put in there on YouTube and I wanted to see what everyone was talking about." And as always, everyone's like, "XRP to $5,000, XRP to 100K and tomorrow." It's like, "Yep, that's pretty much what's happening." Like, everyone is just totally and utterly deluded about what the price of XRP is going to be. Kind of wild, right? Kind of wild. Like, it it is it is hilarious.
It is hilarious. $13,000.
What? $100? $230. What's the biggest price we can find? 54,000. Look at that.
XRP's 54,000. Shut the hell up.
[laughter] Oh my god. I should stop doing it to myself because it's just hilarious, isn't it? Uh yeah, he'll be talk. Yeah, let's I think he'll be asked about CPI and uh let's do CPI, PPI as well. Yeah, I think he's going to be asked about that.
Only joking about bandit for all we do.
I mean that's also true as well. That is also true as well. So yeah. Um what else have we put? He's going to be asked about Jerome Powell JP handover.
Um, let's say I think previous Fed chair. I think he'll ask about that. Oh, I know what he I know what they'll ask for. Uh, I know what they'll do. Well, I bet he gets asked He'll get asked about renovations.
He'll definitely get asked about renovations. I think unemployment. Yes.
Jobs data. We'll put on that. So, we need three more.
Yeah. Yeah, but my life just like when they said BTC would go to 100K. Yeah, I mean that's true.
That's true.
Um, okay. Cool. Cool. Three more if you can think of three more and then uh then we're out of here. Oh my god, there's another there's another case, you there to deal with uh with these complete choppers that keep trying to shill gold to people. Um, wild. But yeah, Bitcoin I mean Bitcoin's holding up 65,781. That's all right. You know, some altcoins are kind of moving. Um, which is kind of good, you know. Aer Drrome still holding up nicely. I mean, I'm bullish on, you guys know that I'm bullish on Aerodrome.
I like having that Aerodyum staked, baby. Making it earn something.
David Schwartz said it can't be cheap.
Flip the switch. It will happen. I mean, like I said, I'm I'm optimistic as an X, but I'm not deluded. And at $53,000, I don't think XRP is getting there anytime soon. Just my personal opinion. But yeah, I mean, where we at? 4.95%. But still another 30 bucks.
I'll take it, baby. I'll take it.
All day long. All day long. All day. Yo.
All day long.
Uh, right.
What else is he going to talk about?
What else might he discuss?
The prior the what the price screens are hilarious. Yeah, I know. Yeah. Yeah.
It's wild. Like I can get behind like a 50 buck XRP, $1,000 XRP. Like I can get behind that. 52,800. Absolute nonsense.
Absolute nonsense. Um in my view in my view. So yeah, pretty wild. Pretty wild.
Uh what are you talking about? XRP is going to Yeah, it's just a Yeah, people putting YouTube live stream YouTube thumbnails saying it's going to 50p.
[snorts] 50p 50k.
Uh data dependent. I mean that's bold.
That is bold. Uh data dependent. Yeah, let's do that. Let's do um let's do sips. I'm going to go for sips.
Oops.
Sips. Oh my god, I can't spell sips.
Water before questions. I'm going to go for that. All right. I think that's a good one. He'll go. We're going to ask some questions. Has his sip of water.
Then he's going to answer the things.
Right, last one, everybody. Give me one that's a good one.
Uh, they've been calling a $10 XRP since 2016. Hasn't been a close. Sell the trash and buy Bitcoin. Davey boy, what's going on? Um, it's not a two bit stream if there's not a majestic beatbox in. I don't even know I'm doing it half the time. I literally don't even know I'm doing it. It's like it's like an in I just don't like quiet, you know, when we live stream. It just gets weird. It gets weird to be honest.
I'm trying to think what the big topics have been at the White House. Do you think he gets asked about the UFC UFC revenue?
Apparently Dana White said he can't do it anymore because it was so expensive.
How crazy is that? How crazy is that?
Right, let's uh let's generate that mother trucker.
There we go. Look. Beautiful. And download even better.
And then I will post this in the discord.
Post it in the discord. Post it in the D discord. Godap.
So is Bitcoin though. What?
Uh I think he'll walk up, drop the mic around, and leave. Yeah. Yeah. You think so? Hey, I bought Yeah, I bought a million dollars of the SpaceX back in 2017. live. Screw you guys. I don't need to be the fed chair anymore.
I don't need it. I don't care.
Right. Uh man, what is this doing? My uh it's all going a bit mental, man. It's worked for an hour. Oh, I think it's finished. Is it finished? Oh, I think it is. Uh cool. I don't know if it's actually I don't know if it's going to work, but apparently it's finished. Uh right. Let me post this in the general chat. Uh, upload a file.
There we go.
Uh, bingo card. Right, there we are. Posted in there. I don't think it comes up as a thing, but it's in there. 10 page pay my mortgage and everything off and $50 takes me out of the UK. I mean, that would be power, right? I put in Bitcoin maxf turns up. Let's get it. Let's get it. Right. I built this kind of cool thing. I don't know if I can get it to work while I'm live, but uh, read me setup deployment guide. So verify dot port is already another so I left this one running on that npm. Okay. So open.
Oh, okay. How do I do that? Oh my god.
Uh what the hell? [snorts] All sorts of crazy stuff going on in the two bit stream here.
All sorts of crazy stuff, right?
Searched. Okay, that's what it does.
Verified notes. So, install uh the two bit crypto trend hunter.
That's what it's called. All right, that's what that's what essentially it's hopefully built. But how the hell do I launch this? An app never invents. Blah blah blah blah blah. Requirements. Okay, fine. API keys for the service you want to use. Okay. Install npm if npm fails on Windows. What the [ __ ] hell? Where I mean, where is he? Where is where is the folder? Where's the folder?
This is so confusing. I don't know what it's doing.
Wash, laptop, or tablet. I've gone for laptop, I think it is. I think I've gone for laptop.
Um, what the hell is this?
Uh right.
Uh see bash if npm fails. Configure API keys. Optional run locally.
Settings for development.
How to use end. Okay. That's not what I need to do. API setup. Storage. Deploy.
Deploy folder structure. What lippy heck?
I don't even know what's going on. I don't even know where this is. It's like created something that I don't Oh, hold on a minute. It's on here. I don't even know where it is. Uh, production server response on that API. Okay. I don't think that works though. This works.
This works. Oh, hold on a minute. Was it just done? I put it somewhere.
Uh, delete that.
Oh.
Oh, it has worked. No way. Oh my god, it has actually wor. Uh, okay. I don't know if this is going to actually work though. So, so basically this is kind of This sounds mental. This sounds mental.
All right. So, this is like proper brand new. So, I built this in order to um in order to research what people are talking about basically, but I don't know if it's going to work or not. I don't know if it's going to work. I think I have to integrate APIs into it.
Um, which is kind of annoying. Oh, yeah.
So, YouTube API is missing, right?
So, how the flipping heck Oh, bro. Okay.
Hold on a minute. Hold on a hold on a minute.
Hold on a minute. Hold on a minute. Hold on a minute. Hold on a minute. Is it this? Please tell me it's this. Uh. Ah, bro. It's not that [ __ ] Oh, man. Where is it? I literally had the API key for it as well. Ah, mate. I kind of want I kind of want you guys to see it. It's going to be cool as cucumbers.
Um, do you trade per? Uh, uh, not really.
Not really.
Uh, where the flipping heck did I find this yesterday, bruh?
Bruh, I can't find it. Where would it be?
Where would it be? Uh, all right. Maybe here. Look. Users me.
Vex session.
Oh, it might be here actually.
16th. What day is it today?
14th. Oh, no. That's not what I need.
The JSON files, bro.
organization can boost XRP to $1,000 because it increased transaction volume, quality, and institutional reliance.
Yeah, I could see that. Again, I'm not saying that it couldn't, by the way.
Like, you could definitely get into a world where you could get a strong demand for sure.
For sure. Um, oh, it might be here actually. Oh, I think I might have found it. Oh, please tell me I found it. Come on, bro. Where is it? I think it's here.
And is this it? Hold on a minute. Hold on. Just cuz I think it'd be cool if we could see this work. Yes, here it is.
Oh, there it is. Oh, no. I've clicked on the wrong thing. Brh.
Show key. That's what I need. Oh, there it is. Perfect. Do that. Paste that into there. Oh, no. It's not that. Come on, bro. What's happening? I'm super excited. I hope this works. That works.
Yes. Save.
That's now saved. Research. Okay, let's see. If this doesn't work, I'm going to cry and quit the stream, but let's hope it does. So, YouTube is now activated.
So, let's search for XRP FOMC YouTube.
Let's take them off and go. Ah, bro. Why has it done that? No matching source was fine. Broaden the topic time frame or engagement.
Oh, bro. Come on. Why is it doing that?
Why is it doing that? YouTube search failed to fetch day. No matching source items are found. Broaden the topic time frame or engagement filter. What the hell is that mean? Well, that's annoying, isn't it? Okay, fine. Fine, bro. SPCX 300 next week. I mean, maybe.
I mean, yeah, SpaceX has been going absolutely wild. Like, let's not kid ourselves. SpaceX has been dominating at uh 205. I mean, yeah, pretty interesting. I think pretty interesting indeed. I think I need to install all this kind of stuff and do some sort of crazy [ __ ] with it. But anyway, that is probably going to bring us to the end of the stream as always as uh as I have many many things I need to get on with.
And we've been live now for an hour and 15 minutes. So, who would have thought that? So, as always, join me back tomorrow night for all the latest in the crypto market. We will obviously break down exactly what is going on and more importantly understand what the FOMC decision truly means from Kevin Walsh.
If you enjoyed the content, don't forget smash the like button to a brand new alltime high. If you're here on Tik Tok, do make sure you drop a follow. That way you know it's me and that you're not following some random person on here. So until tomorrow, thank you for watching and we'll see you on the flip side. Take care. [music] >> [music]
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