'No Talks Planned' Says Taiwan After Trump's Arms Pause | Vantage on Firstpost | 4K

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Have you ever noticed something about America? It always tells its allies the same thing. Do not worry, we have your back until another war starts somewhere else and suddenly the promises become conditional. That is exactly what Taiwan may be learning right now. Because Washington has now paused a massive 14 billion arms sale to Taipei. And the reason the United States says it needs to save its missiles for the Iran conflict which is prolonging. Take a look at this.

[00:00:31]>> We have done some military uh foreign military sales to them in the P. It's just right now we're doing a pause in order to to make sure we have the uh munitions we need for epic fury which we have plenty.

[00:00:45]>> So conflict in West Asia is now directly impacting security in East Asia. And it is not just Taiwan. European allies too have already been warned that the US weapons deliveries could face delays.

[00:00:56]Here is why. The United States has used 45% of its precision strike missiles. It has also expended nearly 50% of its THA interceptors. Around 50% of its Patriot missiles have also been used and nearly 30% of Tomahawk missiles have been fired. Washington is stretched and it is reconsidering its priorities.

[00:01:19]And how is Taiwan reacting to this?

[00:01:22]Well, for starters, Taipei says it was not even officially informed.

[00:01:27]Washington publicly said it was halting the deal. But Taiwan says it never received any formal notice. That alone tells you how this relationship is working right now. But what exactly was Taiwan supposed to get? Reports say Taipei was expecting advanced air defense systems, including Pack 3 missile interceptors. the NASA's air defense batteries. Let me break this down for you. The PAC 3 is a part of the Patriot missile family. It is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hostile aircraft. It uses what is called hit tokill technology, meaning it destroys a target by directly hitting it in midair.

[00:02:09]The NASA system is different. It is short for National Advanced Surfaceto-air missile system. The system is mobile, quicker to deploy, and designed to stop drones, low-flying missiles, and helicopters. So, Taiwan was not asking for offensive weapons. It was asking for a defensive shield.

[00:02:26]Because China has been increasing military pressure on the self-governed island for years now, warships, fighter jets, military drills, and constant threats. Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory and has never ruled out taking it by force.

[00:02:46]That is why Taiwan was hoping for a quick arms deal. In fact, until recently, Washington was doing the exact opposite. It was ramping up arms support for Taiwan. In December, the Trump administration approved a record 11 billion arms package for Taipei. And now, just months later, another $14 billion package is being put put on hold. Same administration, same ally, but very different message. And take a look at the timing as well. The pause comes just days after Trump's visit to China. He was on a two-day visit to Beijing last week where he met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. And unsurprisingly, one issue dominated those talks.

[00:03:25]Taiwan. Beijing has always opposed American weapon sales to Taiwan. And during the summit, it made that clear.

[00:03:35]In his talks with US President Donald Trump, President Xiinping pointed out that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China US relations.

[00:03:44]If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.

[00:03:57]Taiwan independence and crossstrait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water.

[00:04:07]And then came Trump's own comments. He called Taiwan's arms deal a very good negotiating chip with Beijing.

[00:04:13]>> Should the people of Taiwan feel more or less secure after your meetings with President Xi?

[00:04:20]>> Uh neutral. Neutral. This is >> Has the policy changed at all?

[00:04:24]>> No, nothing US policy.

[00:04:26]>> No, nothing's changed. I will say this.

[00:04:28]I'm not looking to have somebody go independent and, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that.

[00:04:37]>> Just think about it for a moment. For Taiwan, this is about survival. For Trump, it's a bargaining tool.

[00:04:44]>> So, President Xi and I talked a lot about Taiwan. On Taiwan, he does not want to see a fight for independence because that would be a very strong confrontation.

[00:04:56]And I I heard him out.

[00:05:00]>> No, I didn't make I didn't make a comment on it. I heard him out. I have a lot of respect for >> And that is why Taipei is now trying to read between the lines because the signals coming from Washington are completely mixed. On one hand, Trump is calling Taiwan's arm deal a negotiating chip with China. But on the other, he has also said that he may speak directly with Taiwan's president.

[00:05:22]>> Well, I'll speak to him. I speak to everybody. Uh we have that situation very well in hand. We had a great meeting with President Xi. Uh he's really it was amazing actually. It was amazing you many of you were there. Uh we'll work on that the Taiwan problem.

[00:05:39]>> Now that may sound routine but it would be a major diplomatic break. No sitting US president has spoken directly to a Taiwanese president since 1979.

[00:05:48]And that year is important. Washington officially switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979. Earlier, it only recognized Taiwan's government as the legitimate administration of China, but then it decided to build formal relations with Beijing and cut official ties with Taipei. But it did not walk away from Taipei entirely. It passed the Taiwan Relations Act. Under this law, the United States is expected to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons and also maintain the ability to resist any force takeover of the self-ruuled island. This law has guided Washington's Taiwan policy for nearly five decades, which is why this episode is raising questions.

[00:06:30]Is Washington still committed to that position? Or is Taiwan now becoming part of Trump's dealmaking with China? And for Taipei, that is a dangerous place to be.

[00:06:41]because it depends heavily on American weapons. While Taiwan's weapons are being put on hold, Washington is still approving military support elsewhere.

[00:06:50]This includes a $108 million missile system sale to Ukraine. So for Taipei, the question is no longer about shortage. It is about whether Taiwan is still a priority. For years, Washington positioned itself as the world security guaranter. the country that could arm its allies, fight multiple wars, and still maintain global military dominance.

[00:07:13]But if America now has to choose which ally gets the missiles first, that claim is looking harder to maintain. There used to be a time when Saudi Arabia was the undisputed oil king of Asia. Its crude powered the economies of India, China, Japan, and South Korea. But things began to change. Asia started diversifying its oil suppliers. Saudi faced more competition and then came disruptions due to the Iran war and the straight war moose crisis.

[00:07:42]Now Saudi has a new problem. Asia is buying less of its oil. China is cutting imports. India is reducing purchases and Japan and South Korea are also pulling back. Now at first glance you might think this is all because of the war.

[00:07:56]But this story is actually about something else. Price. Saudi crude has become one of the most expensive barrels in the global market right now. And at a time when refiners across Asia are under pressure, buyers are now hunting for cheaper barrels.

[00:08:12]It's not whether Saudi can export oil.

[00:08:14]The real question is who is still willing to pay for it. Let me explain.

[00:08:19]Saudi oil exports have been falling steadily since the US Iran conflict escalated. Saudi crude exports were 7.3 million barrel per day in February. It fell to 4.4 million barrel per day in March. Cargo scheduled to sail from Saudi in May are now assessed at roughly 3.9 million barrels a day. That's a historic low. What's more, Saudi Arabia is actually one of the few Gulf countries that can still bypass the straight of Hormuz. It has a massive east west pipeline which allows it to move crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea.

[00:08:52]So infrastructure is not the main problem here. demand is buyers in Asia are simply not taking as much Saudi oil as before.

[00:09:00]And nowhere is that more visible than in China. China's still Saudi Aramco's biggest customer is expected to take only about 600,000 barrels per day of Saudi crude in June.

[00:09:14]But that's roughly half of April's volume. Why? Because refining oil in China has become less profitable.

[00:09:21]Domestic demand has weakened. Export restrictions have hurt refiner margins and many Chinese refiners are now losing money just processing crude. Beijing's not alone. The decline in demand is visible across all other Asian buyers.

[00:09:36]Japan, which used to buy an average of 1.2 million barrel per day before the crisis, took only about 202,000 barrels a day in March and April and only two cargo sailed to Japan from Saudi Arabia in May. South Korean loading in May expected to fall by about 35% from April. And India, despite its need for medium sour grades, which is a particular type of crude, is reportedly said to receive about 30% less Saudi oil in May than in April. One of the most telling signs is the rising share of tankers floating in the Red Sea or heading towards Asia only to wait offshore for a final destination. Simply put, in such a market, buyers are looking for cheaper barrels of oil. And right now, Saudi oil is not cheap. So, how did it get here? Here's the key thing to understand. Saudi Arabia does not just sell oil at the global market price. It sells what is called an official selling price or OSP. That price is linked to the Dubai Oman oil benchmark. But Saudi Aramco can then add a premium on top of it. And during the Iran war and Hormuse crisis, both the benchmark price and Saudi premium surged higher, which meant Asian buyers were paying some of the most expensive prices in the market for Saudi crude. At one point, the premium on Saudi's Arab light crude surged to $20 a barrel for refiners already losing money. That became too expensive to justify. So buyers started looking elsewhere. And that really tells you where the market is right now.

[00:11:15]This is no longer just about whether Saudi can get oil out to the world. It can. The bigger problem is that buyers across Asia are no longer willing to pay a premium for it. You see, for years, Asian giants like India and China have remained deeply vulnerable to every crisis in West Asia. Tensions in the region led to energy price spikes. Supply chain gets disrupted and countries in Asia are forced to scramble. That's a huge problem because these are some of the most important economies with billions of people, enormous energy needs. So now Asian buyers are becoming far more price conscious. They're looking for discounts. They're comparing suppliers more aggressively.

[00:11:59]And they are willing to move away from long-term partners if the price is too high. So yes, Saudi Arabia still has the pipelines, it still has the tankers, and it still has the oil. But in today's market, that may no longer be enough.