Political Roundtable: Trump's Iran deal explained — What we know and what we don't

[00:00:00]The US and Iran taking new steps now to end the war, but both countries reaching an initial agreement that spells out terms and issues that will be discussed in future negotiations. Specifics of the deal have yet to be released, but Pakistan the lead mediator of the peace talks says a deal could be signed on Friday. So joining me for today's roundt, scripts News White House correspondent Jacob Gardens Schwarz and political director Andrew Rafferty. And Raph, let me start here with you because at the end of the day, when all things are done, again, we don't know the details of any of this. Uh, but really, who has the most to gain politically if this deal succeeds and who has the most to lose?

[00:00:47]>> Yeah. Well, Holly, no doubt that when you're talking about the politics of this, it's since President Trump, we've seen the toll this has taken on his political polls approval here at home as well as it being a midterm year. But I do think you're very right to point out just the last lack of specificity that we know at this moment. And you can almost put air quotes around the term deal because it seems like this is just the beginning of talking about a more longer term deal. And that's why it's great to have Jacob with us today who is covering the White House day in and day out because Jacob, you know, I've been reading your notes, reading uh what our White House team has been putting out over the weekend and into this morning.

[00:01:29]Um and it seems like a lot of it is sort of a reversion to the status quo. uh stuff that was already sort of in place before this war began. Um but what is it that we actually know at this moment in terms of where these negotiations stand?

[00:01:48]>> Yeah, that's right, Andrew. I I think when I try to get my mind around this memorandum of understanding how the White House is describing this agreement and where it leaves us, it it really does take us back to the status quo on February 27th. That was of course the day before this new war with Iran began.

[00:02:06]The Straits of Hormuz were open. The US was attempting to engage in diplomacy with Iran to talk about their nuclear program. Gas prices were below $3 a gallon. Uh we are going to see some of that happen if this deal comes through, but not all of that. Uh, and as far as the long-term goals that brought the US to the war in the first place, uh, completely eliminating Iran's nuclear program, addressing the enriched uranium that's already inside the country, addressing some of Iran's proxies in the region, we really don't have a lot of details as to what this uh, agreement does for some of those bigger issues.

[00:02:43]So, I'll break it down sort of into three categories for you. There's the the details that we know that both sides have essentially agreed to. There's the details that the US is suggesting happening. Then there's some details that Iran is suggesting are happening.

[00:02:55]And then there's some details that we really are just in in the dark on. As far as what we do know, there is this memorandum of understanding. It would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, halt hostilities. The straight of Hormuz would be opened in some capacity. There are a number of questions about what that capacity would be. And then there would be uh you know continuing negotiations, continuing conversations about the long-term future of Iran's nuclear program. But in terms of those question marks, you know what will Iran specifically agree to, especially as it comes to enforcing any commitments they make? We don't know. What sort of financial transactions will happen? Will the US provide Iran any compensation?

[00:03:35]And when will that happen? We don't know. Uh how will Iran's proxies be addressed in this? We don't know. a lot more question marks than there are specific details as this text has yet to been be released.

[00:03:46]>> And Jacob, to that point, uh Iran's proxies. We also there's the third factor in here which is Israel and they are saying they're not going to stop uh their war against Hezbollah and that could be tank this whole deal. Is the Trump administration, anybody spoken to Netanyahu? Have they said, "Look, we'll go along to to to get some sort of resolution or are they saying this is your deal, we have our own?"

[00:04:10]We know that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu had a conversation late last week. I believe it was Thursday. Um, as you noted, uh, both Pakistan and Iran have suggested that a complete withdrawal from Lebanon and Israeli withdrawal is a part of this deal. Uh, and certainly a complete uh, ceasefire, you know, sessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon are part of this deal. Now, we've seen, you know, uh, hostilities lessen, let's say, certainly not the degree of fighting that we have seen over the past several months, but just this morning, we saw an Israeli attack in southern Lebanon on a Hezbollah target. So, the fighting has not stopped, and that is certainly something that is likely to be part of these negotiations uh, as we wait to see this deal completely signed. Again, we're expecting some sort of signing ceremony on Friday in Geneva. is what exactly Israel is going to do, how much it will abide by these agreements at this point.

[00:05:09]Israel is saying they're not committing necessarily to anything right now.

[00:05:12]>> And Raph, let me turn to you because how much of this the opposition to this deal is really about national security and how much is really about domestic politics? I mean, how does this overall fit into the administration's broader foreign policy strategy?

[00:05:32]Oh, did we lose your audio, Raph?

[00:05:39]>> Oh, I think we've lost you. Did you mute yourself, Raph?

[00:05:43]Okay, let me get back to you then. Uh, Jacob, let me uh turn to you. We'll let Raph reestablish uh his audio. Uh but Jacob, we know that this all started with President Trump. Uh he told the Iranian people, "Look, we're here to support you overthrowing the regime." Uh there had been a lot of uh discontent there, but nothing has changed for them really at all. And some now are saying it's going to embolden this new regime.

[00:06:07]Uh does this agreement then make the region safer? Um does it create new risks? Uh how is the Trump administration approaching that angle of it?

[00:06:18]>> Yeah, that's a great question. You know, I think uh if you're an administration official and and trying to sell this to the number of constituencies that that are going to have to buy into this deal, there's certainly an argument that Iran's military has been decimated is the word the administration uses over and over. Certainly, its capacity has been severely degraded. Ships have been sunk. Uh you know, radar, drone facilities have been taken out. In that way, Iran has less of a capability to wreak havoc in the region than they did before this war began. But they have uh a a newfound ability and have demonstrated that ability to completely grind shipping through the straight of Hormuse to a halt to deal pain to uh Gulf allies in the region. They are certainly coming out of this a lot of foreign policy experts are suggesting in a stronger position at least from a PR standpoint than they were before this began. I also think it's important to note, you know, we can talk about these agreements that the US will lift its blockade, Iran will stop attacking ships, reopening the straight of Hormuz.

[00:07:22]Ultimately, it's commercial the commercial shipping industry that makes the determination as to whether the Straight of Hormuz is safe. It's not Iran. It's not the United States. It's the companies that actually are driving tankers through the straight and putting their employees in danger if there are active hostilities. At this point, a number of shipping leaders are saying, "We don't yet feel it's safe enough to put our employees in danger to transit through the straight." Will that change in the coming week? Anybody's question.

[00:07:46]>> And Jacob, though, what about, you know, there there's financial compensation.

[00:07:49]Iran is saying, "Look, we want a lot of those frozen assets to be released to us to make up for what they lost during uh this war in the terms of uh the economic blockade."

[00:08:02]So, does this sort of also put them on top saying, "Look, we're getting money back to us. Yes, we're going to be behind. We're going to have to spend money now. You know, our economy is suffering, but with a release of those funds, is that sort of a win in the column for Iran, is that going to be a hard sell for the Trump administration to say, "We won this war."

[00:08:22]>> Iran is certainly going to spin it as a win. And of course, I think how much of a win will really depend on those details. When those funds are unfrozen, how they are, are they American funds, Iranian funds that have been frozen by American banks? Are they funds that were frozen by some of our allies? Does that come with sanctions relief? Uh White House officials, we heard the the vice president on the airwaves this morning insisting that essentially there won't be any significant transactions made until Iran has demonstrated compliance with this deal. Iranian officials in public have been relatively mum on their perspective, but state media has reported over and over that they're expecting some transactions as soon as this deal is signed, sort of as a a show of good faith that uh getting them to sign this agreement enables them to access some of these funds. That's going to be a big question, not just what is being released, but when it is and whether that's really paired to enforcement of the agreement or or rather some sort of uh you know what what some might call payoff just to get us back to the status quo.

[00:09:22]>> And Jacob, you cover the White House every day. The president uh is in uh France now for the G7 summit. We know world leaders not happy with him over this war with Iran. Um, what are you hearing that America's allies hope to hear uh from the president when they meet? A and what is the president furthermore need from allies at this summit that he can't accomplish on his own?

[00:09:47]>> Well, certainly our allies want more details as do we about what this deal entails, exactly how it will be enforced. You know, some of those big picture specific questions that we don't yet have answers on. Uh, as far as what we need from our allies, you know, the president early on in this war was calling for allies to send ships, to send military assets to the street to help secure it. We now, given the the news of this tenative agreement, have started to hear some of our European allies, France and the UK specifically, suggest that they might be ready to start sending ships to help doing that.

[00:10:21]So certainly that's something we'll be watching is if there's any sort of grand agreement in terms of a a security force, a coalition of allies that are going to help ensure that Iran complies with its side of the deal and opens up the straight. Again, what Europeans will be getting in exchange for that, how that will all take place, how soon that will all happen, a number of questions that we just don't know the answers to at this point. All right, White House correspondent Jacob Gardens Schwarz and uh political director Andrew Rafferty lost somehow in the bowels of the audio internet universe uh who will be back with us later. Thank you so much.