🚀 10X Potential: Asymmetric Homeruns in Commodities & Metals!

Añadido: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]Everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name's Andy. My channel's Finding Value.

[00:00:05]Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, generally related to three different topics, wealth building, commodities, and or financial topics.

[00:00:18]Let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.

[00:00:22]If you want to follow me, it's @financialscorefinance. And if you want to join our community, finding-value.com, that's where I dive deeper into these topics, subjects looking for investment opportunities, and sharing those opportunities with everybody in the community.

[00:00:37]Special coupon codes for the monthly membership, 500YR is the coupon code for the yearly membership, and you can see the discount codes and discounts for those memberships in the description link below.

[00:00:53]So Brew Markets, you don't get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets, you get rich by finding two or three asymmetric home runs.

[00:01:05]Says Stanley Druckenmiller.

[00:01:08]I agree with him.

[00:01:09]But uh here's my thing.

[00:01:13]What if I can find 50 asymmetric home runs?

[00:01:18]What if I can find 100 asymmetric home runs?

[00:01:24]Think that's what I've done.

[00:01:27]I I mean I I I look at some of the the stuff in my portfolio and you know, I I've basically looked at all the different commodity sectors when they were way down.

[00:01:41]And I and I scanned across a whole bunch of different companies at the bottom of the commodities bull market.

[00:01:50]And in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, it it really depends on the the sector because the sectors were bottoming.

[00:02:01]I'd say all throughout that 2020 to 2025 time frame.

[00:02:08]So I I think I have hopefully three, four, five different asymmetric home runs.

[00:02:15]Some have already paid out to some degree, and I think they're going to continue to run.

[00:02:21]In just precious metals minor companies.

[00:02:25]>> [clears throat] >> I've got a handful, five maybe even more than five.

[00:02:30]Oil companies that I think are asymmetric home runs.

[00:02:35]Some of them are already up 10, 20, 30 X already from 2020. And I and I think we're still at a ridiculously low spot for oil.

[00:02:48]I have four, five, six, seven different companies in energy services that are asymmetric home runs. And I'm not even saying I am saying that they already have paid out dramatically, and I think there's a lot to go. Not potential asymmetric home runs. I'm talking about are already home runs and developing into something more ridiculous.

[00:03:15]I've got a whole bunch in steel, in iron ore, in copper in other materials that maybe people don't even think about, aluminum.

[00:03:25]I'm already up almost 10 bags in aluminum company already from the bottom of 2021 or two or whatever it was was the actual bottom.

[00:03:37]Maybe it was maybe it was in 23.

[00:03:41]I think I have a whole portfolio of these asymmetric home runs. I'm not talking two or three. You only need two or three to hit for that to be an absolute killer of a return.

[00:03:54]I think I've got a whole portfolio almost. Now, I wasn't perfect on selecting all of the companies.

[00:04:00]There there were duds along the way and there were a bankruptcy here or two, you know, here or there.

[00:04:06]And I I'm not perfect by any means.

[00:04:10]But um a lot of these companies, I mean, man, they are really, really taking off.

[00:04:16]And I I know these guys, the the Stanley Druckenmillers, the Peter Lynch, and I talked about Buffett before where 12 companies of Buffett really made the difference for him.

[00:04:28]Um I think I've got 12 in my current portfolio.

[00:04:33]I think I've got more than 12.

[00:04:36]I'm I'm pretty satisfied with the portfolio. I'm I'm pretty confident in the companies that I've selected over the past five years, and perhaps I have a better uh selection process than even some of these guys that are known as the greats.

[00:04:53]Um so I I it's kind of weird to to think of it from that perspective that my returns in two years matched Peter Lynch's entire career.

[00:05:07]Just this past year in my top portfolio, which is more energy heavy weighted. I didn't look exactly, but I think I'm up like 70% year to date.

[00:05:19]70% year to date. Now, I'm I'm overweight a few companies that have really taken off this year.

[00:05:28]Uh so maybe not a you know, a fair comparison.

[00:05:32]But most of my other portfolios I've got six or seven across all these different things 401Ks that I you know, I I've kept some of the 401Ks there. It's all ETFs in one of them.

[00:05:45]That's up like 30% this year.

[00:05:49]My Roth 401K that I'm sharing on the on the website I actually haven't even looked to see what the year to date return is on that.

[00:05:56]It's probably 30% or something.

[00:05:59]And these are these are portfolios that I'm not trading. I'm not trading in and out. I'm not doing anything special.

[00:06:05]Um some of the portfolios are weighted more towards precious metals.

[00:06:10]Other portfolios are more weighted towards energy. And my my best performing, which is my largest portfolio, is more energy weighted. So that's the one that's outperforming at this time.

[00:06:22]So Attention crude oil bulls, you have not seen anything yet. Buckle up, it's going to be a wild decade.

[00:06:32]300, 400, and even $500 targets on the table for oil. Looks like Patrick Karim's on the train, the same train that I'm on.

[00:06:42]I think that oil is going to go many hundreds of dollars by the end of this bull market. I'm guessing probably early 2030s, mid 2030s. I don't know, I'm just guessing there. I don't know for sure.

[00:06:54]And we're going to go multi-hundred.

[00:06:56]This is what what scares me a little bit.

[00:06:59]And and it scares me in a good way, but it it scares me.

[00:07:03]If I'm already up 10 or 20 X in some of my oil companies when I bought at 2020 what does that mean when oil goes to 300, 400, and $500?

[00:07:17]I mean those those companies could 10, 20 X again.

[00:07:24]And if I'm already up 10 or 20 X, that makes those 100, 200, 300 baggers.

[00:07:31]What that means is every $1,000 that I put into it, I get $300,000 back on a 300 bagger.

[00:07:40]If I put $10,000, I get 3 million back in that single position.

[00:07:47]Maybe it'll be 6 million in a single position.

[00:07:52]The most difficult thing for most people that I can see is people become impatient.

[00:07:58]They want things to happen faster.

[00:08:02]You can't force it, guys.

[00:08:04]This is coming. You have to get the vision in your head. You got to see the move before it occurs, and then you have to sit and do nothing for a long period of time. It's going to feel like it's a long period of time.

[00:08:17]In the beginning a lot of things don't really progress.

[00:08:21]It feels like you're going nowhere when you first enter a position.

[00:08:25]Usually if you're buying it really cheap, it chops sideways for a little while.

[00:08:29]And then at some point not at a point that you can determine exactly when it starts to go higher.

[00:08:39]In the beginning when you're up 50%, it feels good. You're like, yeah, I'm up 50%.

[00:08:44]Now, here's the thing. When you get up to 500%, things start to accelerate.

[00:08:51]The numbers become big.

[00:08:55]And if you go from 500%, which is you're a double away from a 10 bagger.

[00:09:02]But you're you're only a double away from it.

[00:09:05]So although the the company's going up, and sometimes what's crazy is that the company is moving in daily increments your entire cost basis purchase price.

[00:09:19]So let's say you buy a stock at $5 a share later in the bull market the company will be trading in a single day larger than $5 a share. It's your entire cost basis in swings up and down. And sometimes it could be double or triple the size of your entire cost basis.

[00:09:44]And the reason people don't get it is because they're not patient enough for it to to occur. Or they don't understand the markets. They don't have this vision. Like this vision where we're breaking down and we could see a potential big run in oil prices. Like they don't have that vision. They don't know where it's going. Now, I don't know where it's going in the short term, but I've got this longer term vision.

[00:10:09]And it and it and it overlaps with the valuations and ratios.

[00:10:14]So, this here, this is SPX divided by crude oil, and crude oil is breaking out to the downside uh where oil is starting to outperform.

[00:10:23]That's what the cycle is.

[00:10:26]We are in the cycle where oil outperforms.

[00:10:30]And you have to adopt that bottom as quickly as possible to get the cheapest prices out of the companies.

[00:10:39]You you're not going to be able to make a 200 bagger uh or or a 100 bagger or 50 bagger if you're buying super late in the move.

[00:10:49]It it just doesn't have that type of asymmetry.

[00:10:53]So, what he talks about this, you don't get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets, you get rich by finding two or three asymmetric home runs.

[00:11:02]Your asymmetry comes from being early.

[00:11:06]It comes from being first or second or third in that in that buying queue.

[00:11:14]You can't wait because the asymmetry goes away.

[00:11:18]And the hardest thing to do is to buy bottoms when everyone else cannot understand why you're buying it.

[00:11:27]That's what gives you the asymmetry.

[00:11:29]That's what gives you the risk reward setup. It's when other people don't understand.

[00:11:36]They're going to fight with you in the comments section. Andy, oil's not going to go up. Cathie Wood says XYZ. That's what I was getting in 2020 and 2021.

[00:11:46]Cathie Wood says that oil's not going to go up, and it's going to go the way of whale oil.

[00:11:51]Do you know how stupid that is?

[00:11:55]My lord.

[00:11:57]Now, here's Dave Ramsey. I'm going to make a comment here.

[00:12:01]It says Dave Ramsey explains why paying off your mortgage early is the fastest path to millionaire status.

[00:12:08]A caller who's debt-free, except for his house, and has $90,000 in savings, asked Dave what to do next.

[00:12:17]Dave walks him through his framework before getting to the real insight. What we teach is a thing called the baby steps where you're debt-free everything but the house, and have an emergency fund. That's one, two, and three of those baby steps.

[00:12:32]After that comes savings for kids' college. The caller has 75,000 across 529 plans for his two kids.

[00:12:40]Then comes the step where it gets interesting.

[00:12:43]He says, "Pay off the house early."

[00:12:46]We would say throw everything at the house, which is the 90,000 that's in discussion here, unless you don't have an emergency fund.

[00:12:55]But why? Dave points to the data.

[00:12:58]We just completed the largest study of millionaires ever done.

[00:13:02]Over 10,000 of them. 79% inherited nothing, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% inherited not enough to make them millionaires. So, the 90% of millionaires aren't wealthy because of inheritance.

[00:13:18]It's because of their habits, which I agree with.

[00:13:21]And the two habits Dave sees at the first million or two of net worth is simple. A maxed-out 401k and a paid-for house.

[00:13:32]Here's what millionaires are not doing.

[00:13:34]We do not find them saying, "I'm going to borrow as much at 3 and 1/2% money as I can borrow because I can vet I can invest it and make a better rate of return."

[00:13:46]We do not find them doing that. Instead, they kill the mortgage and redirect the cash flow into investing.

[00:13:53]Dave pro- projects the caller's future.

[00:13:55]If we fast-forward 5 to 7 years, you'd have about a million and a half net worth, of which 700,000 is your house.

[00:14:04]You would be a typical case study of the representative, statistically, of the typical millionaire.

[00:14:12]Skip the payoff, and you become an outlier.

[00:14:15]If, however, you didn't pay off the house, you might still reach millionaire status, but you would be very unusual among that group.

[00:14:24]Then Dave gets to the deeper reason, the one that isn't on a spreadsheet. 100% of the foreclosures occur on a house with a mortgage.

[00:14:33]And when you have zero mortgage, and you walk in the backyard, and and the grass feels different under your feet, it's mine, by God, kind of thing.

[00:14:44]It changes the way you operate the rest of your money because you're standing on such a more solid foundation to live your life.

[00:14:54]So, I am uh I am this person here. I'm the outlier myself.

[00:15:00]It says, "If, however, you didn't pay off the house, you might still reach millionaire status, but you would be very unusual among that group." And that's me.

[00:15:08]Apparently.

[00:15:10]I'm the unusual one. I've also hit the status faster than probably most of the people uh in the group that he is uh um looking at.

[00:15:22]Now, if you were to ask me, "Andy, what would you do in the situation that most of these people that he had studied, what would you do in their situation?"

[00:15:34]Well, if I was a baby boomer, and that's [clears throat] the majority of millionaires, what he's looking at, is he's cutting off everyone who's not a millionaire, and he's only looking at millionaires. That's what the statistic is representing, millionaires.

[00:15:48]If I were in their step, and I had a 10% mortgage rate or a 7% mortgage rate, the first thing I would do is pay off my mortgage as fast as possible.

[00:15:58]If I were them.

[00:16:00]Now, if I had a mortgage rate, which I do, which is 2.75% on a 30-year mortgage, and the inflation rate, which it is, is greater than 2.75%, I would not pay off the house.

[00:16:17]That's me, personally, and that's what I'm doing.

[00:16:21]Does that mean I'm right? No, doesn't mean I'm right.

[00:16:26]Now, could I foreclose on the house? No.

[00:16:29]Now, here's something that I am concerned about with his approach.

[00:16:32]All right?

[00:16:34]I am concerned with his approach because if if historically, if I go back in my progression, my own progression, if I threw everything at the house, it leaves me more vulnerable.

[00:16:51]Why?

[00:16:53]Well, if all I had was a 6 months of savings, 6 months to me is not a lot.

[00:16:59]And I only have a single income, which I used to be.

[00:17:03]When I was going through this stage that he says, you know, I had 90, 100,000 dollars of investments, and then I was still paying off the house. But I only had one single income.

[00:17:17]He would say, "Take that 100,000 and throw it at the house." I'm like, "Are you crazy?"

[00:17:22]Do you know how much risk you're introducing into my life?

[00:17:27]My my opinion, this is just my opinion, and and this is maybe just me.

[00:17:33]If all I had was 6 months of of of emergency fund, and I threw all my money at my house where all of my equity was tied up in the house, that's dangerous as heck to me.

[00:17:52]Because now, if I lose my job, depending on how robust that 6 months and the calculations that I made, I have a a 6 month ticking clock, you know, a the the the the clock is ticking, and I have all of my net worth tied up in my house, that seems ludicrous to me.

[00:18:17]Ludicrously stupid.

[00:18:20]Now, if I lost my job, and I have 6 months of savings, and I have $100,000 of uh of buffer in investments, and I don't have my entire net worth tied up in my house, I have options.

[00:18:39]I may not be as desperate when looking for the next job cuz I've got more buffer.

[00:18:45]I'm more resilient in that type of play.

[00:18:51]And the way that I am going through my life, and I don't I must be like a complete outlier, guys. I must be the oddball of oddballs.

[00:19:01]Because I and this is just me. I don't know why I'm I'm this way. It just makes logical sense to me, and I don't know why other people don't view it as such.

[00:19:09]I don't know why.

[00:19:12]But let's say I've got, you know, 5 million dollars or or 7 million dollars, and I haven't paid off my mortgage. And let's call let's call this hypothetical mortgage $200,000, right?

[00:19:26]Why would I pay that off?

[00:19:29]Like what am I getting out of it? I'm going to give them today's dollars of of two let's call the mortgage of 200,000. I'm going to give them today dollars of 200,000, or I can give them over a long period of time, even with interest, it doesn't matter, $100,000 of purchasing power if I don't pay it off today.

[00:19:48]So, I I net $100,000 in purchasing power by my payments over the entire thing. Even though I pay more with interest and the principal, I still pay back less in purchasing power dollars.

[00:20:11]And then I'm more resilient as I go and as I go through that. So, if I had a hundred thousand dollars in the bank and I still have this two hundred thousand dollar mortgage, if I threw the hundred grand at the mortgage, then I'm less resilient.

[00:20:29]I don't have any buffer. I only have the six months of emergency fund, which is I mean, if you lose your job, the clock starts ticking.

[00:20:39]What if you can't find a job in six months? You you're going to have to refinance the house and do all this other garbage? I don't know, guys. I I just I I don't think this is the best approach if you've got a mortgage that's incredibly low.

[00:20:53]Your resiliency is everything in my opinion.

[00:20:57]But I I don't know. I'm an outlier. I don't make sense. I did it different than Dave would suggest. Um I did it the same in the baby steps.

[00:21:06]So, I got my emergency fund. I started investing. I didn't own a house. I didn't I didn't push too hard on over borrowing and having my expenses exceed some critical level on my uh versus my income. Like I didn't I didn't push it there.

[00:21:25]So, I I I was pretty much resilient the entire way. And that resiliency gave me a psychological ease.

[00:21:33]If I did it his way, I would go crazy.

[00:21:36]I would be crapping myself.

[00:21:39]Because I'd be like, look, I only have six months of savings. The first thing I would do is get more savings.

[00:21:45]I'd be like, I need to pad more.

[00:21:48]Now, if I have a hundred grand in investments and I've got six months of savings, I might be more willing to pay down the mortgage.

[00:21:57]But that wouldn't make sense at a 2.75% interest rate. It doesn't make sense.

[00:22:05]If you had five million net worth, would you spend two hundred fifty thousand on a Porsche 911? No, I wouldn't.

[00:22:10]There's no reason to own that car uh at two hundred fifty thousand dollars even at five million net worth.

[00:22:17]You know what I would do?

[00:22:19]I would buy a thirty, forty, fifty thousand dollar car that is just as fun as that one.

[00:22:25]And you would have you'd have all the smiles per mile that that car would give and you did it with a forty or fifty thousand dollar car. And you And that's buying a car that you don't have to work on or or fix.

[00:22:41]So, I wouldn't buy that car. I don't even I I Guys, I I mean, I've been in Porsches.

[00:22:47]They're they're cool. I get it, but they're not that much better than driving some of these raw cars. Like a There's Honda S2000s out there that are super fun to drive.

[00:22:58]There are uh RX-7s, RX-8s.

[00:23:02]Uh There's all these Japanese cars that are just really fun. The only reason you would buy this car is for a status symbol.

[00:23:11]And and and I'm not that person. Like I will tell you this, I would purposefully not purchase that car because of the status that it would send to everyone else.

[00:23:23]People are going to treat you differently.

[00:23:26]They're going to treat you like, hey look, you got dinner? You drive that car, you're going to pay for our dinner.

[00:23:31]Everyone now becomes beggars.

[00:23:34]And I don't want to be treated any different than anybody else.

[00:23:37]So, I wouldn't buy that car because of the status and the and the signal that it would send out to everyone else.

[00:23:44]Now, most people are exactly opposite of me. I'm the oddball here.

[00:23:49]You know what I would buy? I'd buy a highly modified track car and drive that on the street because I think that would be a better representation of of who I am and what I like than these high dollar status signs.

[00:24:05]So, a track car, you know, I would buy, let's say, a Corvette Z06 with with a rear wing and a front splitter and and big brakes and all that stuff.

[00:24:14]Right? Or I'd buy, you know, a Mazda RX-7. Or I'd buy a Honda S2000 even if it's engine swapped, all that stuff.

[00:24:22]That That is like a representation of me. And what does that represent? It represents wanting to find the best value for my money, number one. And number two, uh those are the most fun cars to drive.

[00:24:37]Like they're they're very well sorted and they're super fun.

[00:24:40]And that's exactly what I would look for. I'd I'd want to find the most fun car for the best value.

[00:24:47]This car is just a status symbol saying, "Look at me, I've got a bunch of money."

[00:24:52]Girls might go after you. That's fine, but I I don't need that.

[00:24:56]Says US oil is in the early innings of a rebound and a drilling ramp up is coming, says Halliburton CEO. Come on, we already know that, guys. We already know that. We're going to go into some gigantic bull market in energy. We're going to make a whole bunch of money.

[00:25:10]Uh and again, you can see the companies on the website. If you guys want to join the website, you can see all those companies.

[00:25:16]We've positioned for this. Now, you just sit and you wait.

[00:25:20]It's in the waiting portion.

[00:25:23]And then five years from now, everything will be super obvious.

[00:25:26]Uh all the tech bros are going to become oil bros or drill bros. Maybe not all of them, but a lot of them.

[00:25:32]And they're going to all come fumbling in.

[00:25:35]And then they're going to ask me, "What company should I buy?" And I'm going to be like, "Look, dude, the asymmetry is not the same as it was. You're not hitting asymmetric home runs. And that's the whole reason you're not making money. It's cuz you're just running around chasing price performance. You're running around buying cars like this trying to show off to people that give two craps about you."

[00:26:00]So, and if you buy a car like this, your registration costs is high, your insurance is high.

[00:26:06]And then you have all the high running costs on it in terms of maintenance.

[00:26:10]And most new cars, they're they're going to have all this electronics integrated into it. You don't want a new car. You want an old car with a really good chassis and then you just want to go have fun.

[00:26:23]Like that's what it's all about. It's about having fun.

[00:26:26]At least to me.

[00:26:30]Says the most expensive 401k myth, the limit is 24.5. It's actually seventy-two thousand dollars a year.

[00:26:38]But only if your plan unlocks it. No mega backdoor Roth.

[00:26:43]Find who owns the plan, HR, the CFO, or the 401k committee. Hand them this one-page business case. No cost, employees win, executives can, too.

[00:26:54]And this talks about the mega backdoor Roth. And basically, you can put all your after-tax contributions into a Roth 401k and it converts that, you know, those dollars to the Roth, which can grow tax-free.

[00:27:10]So, if you're if you're putting money in an individual account and you're maxing out, quote, the pre-tax money in your 401k to get your match from a company, you can go above and beyond that as long as the company provides, I would say, solid investment options in your 401k, you can put it in as a Roth 401k contribution.

[00:27:33]And this can save you in taxes massively.

[00:27:39]And your max that you can put in per year is seventy-two thousand dollars in a single year. I am taking full advantage of this. I am doing this myself.

[00:27:48]So, I put enough money in pre-tax uh and then uh you can reach to the limit of seventy-two K. Now, seventy-two K, that also is your employer contributions.

[00:28:00]That's also added into that.

[00:28:02]So, the max is seventy-two total employee and employer contributions.

[00:28:09]So, don't don't you know, this is a big deal.

[00:28:13]If I were posed with a Let's say I was going to go look for a job and someone said, "Hey look, we we don't have the after-tax contributions." And let's let's say that their their um 401k was like horrible.

[00:28:31]I actually would see that as a negative for that company.

[00:28:36]Because this is I mean, this is a really big deal. If you can get close to seventy-two K each year and a big chunk of that is after-tax contributions that are basically Roth 401k contributions, that is a huge benefit.

[00:28:53]And if they've got really good investments within the 401k, that's another big benefit.

[00:29:00]Now, you can do a mega backdoor Roth and have good investments, which you'll be multi-millionaire, and you can take it out tax-free.

[00:29:10]That's a huge benefit.

[00:29:14]Here's another one from Northstar. Bad charts was the one before. It says, "Gold, silver, commodities, energy, oil.

[00:29:20]What we've seen so far is nothing compared to what this chart implies is likely to come in stage one."

[00:29:29]So, basically, we haven't broken out of this big downtrend probable super capital rotation line is what he calls it. We've got the base. We're coming on up. And then I think we go to stage one, stage two, stage three. This is where we see massive outperformance of all those commodities and precious metals.

[00:29:49]We're right there ready to break. It's going to take a little bit of time maybe uh before we get that breakout.

[00:29:55]Then it's game on like Donkey Kong.

[00:30:01]Sabi says interesting setup Brazil small caps versus large caps. We're likely sitting near the lower bound of a long-term upward channel. This is the phase when pullbacks become a synonym for opportunity.

[00:30:15]So he's talking about small versus large. Last cycle we saw an outperformance of the small caps versus large.

[00:30:23]We've seen large cap outperform small cap and we haven't seen that turn yet.

[00:30:27]But we can, you know, we we can we can see this. And if if you want and you guys want me to dig into some of the stocks in the small cap um ETFs, we can we can start hunting for stuff during some of these Q&As if you want. I can show you how I hunt for them.

[00:30:46]So that is a possibility uh for something that we can do.

[00:30:53]Uh I think we already went over these.

[00:30:55]So that's where I'm going to end it. Uh give me a thumbs up for the content.

[00:30:58]Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you like special and 500 year and the coupon codes.

[00:31:04]Uh and that's all I've got for today, guys. So we've got a 5:00 p.m. Mountain Time uh Q&A session coming up today, Sunday.

[00:31:12]So look for that. Uh if you want to join, you can attend that Q&A session.

[00:31:15]All right, guys. That's all I've got for today. Catch you next time. See you.