The Stock Market is about to SURPRISE Everyone..

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. The markets had a hell of a day today. Let's just call it that. And I do think there is room for this market to continue to run. Now, in this video, you're going to hear a clip from CNBC from Brad Gersner. Now, this guy is very much involved in the AI trade. Really has been from day one. He's actually someone that does move the markets when he speaks. And uh he said, "Look, these stocks have run a lot. the AI trade has run a lot. You could be vulnerable for a 10 to 20% correction, a run-of-the-mill correction, as he says within these AI stocks. He suggests that he is trimming his portfolio right now after a lot of these stocks have run, as he said, maybe too far too fast and redeploying that capital elsewhere.

[00:00:53]Now, you guys probably know my thoughts on this market right now. I think a new bull market is emerging and this has a lot to do with the war with Iran coming to an end, the way the markets are priced right now, um, and a couple of other things. So, we're going to get into all of that in today's episode. I'm going to share with you what is most attractive from a riskreward perspective. Like, look, a lot of people get confused on this because, you know, you're looking at Micron, that's a trillion dollar market cap. You're looking at Amazon and Meta and and Apple and Nvidia and SanDisk and Micron and you're like those are the best companies in the world and I would agree with you they are absolutely but that doesn't mean they're the best investments in the world at this stage. Obviously, if you bought SanDisk a year ago, you've done phenomenally, right? But I always like to think about markets and singular stock opportunities from a riskreward perspective. The first question I like to ask myself since I am someone that is looking for these asymmetrical outsized returns is can this stock double? What are the odds this stock could double?

[00:02:12]What are the odds this stock could five or 10x? And unfortunately, there are no five or 10x opportunities in the best companies in the world at this point anytime soon. None of the stocks I just mentioned have even a slight possibility of 5 to 10xing anytime soon. It's the law of large numbers. It's it's impossible at this stage, right? Well, there's a lot of other opportunities out in the marketplace right now, I think, that have very little downside risk, but massive upside potential. So, I do think it's time to redeploy your portfolios.

[00:02:49]Now, I will tell you, look, I I look at this market from the perspective of this.

[00:02:57]We're trying to get rich in markets.

[00:02:59]Simply put, we are trying to get rich.

[00:03:02]We're trying to build wealth.

[00:03:05]This is probably a different scenario if you are someone that wants $2 million in a brokerage account by the time you're 75 years old. Buy the highest quality companies, okay? Buy the the mega caps and buy the the companies that are going to go up 10% a year, right? You're going to do just fine long term. But if you're trying to take $100,000 to a half million or a half million to5 million, you're you're just not going to do that in the companies that people love right now anytime soon. Now, there are trades that I like within the AI trade right now, and we'll talk about that in today's episode. I do think there's going to be an AI trade 2.0. And again, this is not a question of what are the best, highest quality companies out there. Do we not remember that higher the risk, higher the reward? These highquality companies instinctively should have lower risk and lower reward.

[00:04:06]Everyone's chasing the same 10 or 20 stocks right now. And I will provide at least some of the stocks that I think are these outsized opportunities, these asymmetrical opportunities. Now, if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, again, keep in mind, if you're trying to have $2 million in a brokerage account by the time you're 75, don't join us. If you're trying to have $2 million in a brokerage account in two years, come join us. That's the investing style that we go for. High conviction big bets in high conviction stocks, right? Uh, you know, look, a year ago I was buying the data centers, you know, I was buying the photonix companies, NVTS, I don't even know where that stock is today. That one still just impresses me. Um, you know, I was buying this stock at a $1.70 a year ago. A year ago, not two, not three, not five years ago, a year ago, stocks went from $1.70, a low of a $1.50, up to a high of $34 per share. the ju just the opportunities have changed in this sector and a lot of people's thoughts around this sector are literally uh never never more bullish than right now and I just think it's a little misplaced. If you guys want to come join us, come get involved with us, come see the stocks that we are buying, the high conviction investments that we are making, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Not a financial adviser, not a financial planner of course, but let's begin here. Okay, so today there was really two things that benefited the markets. Number one, there was the war with Iran looks to be coming to an end soon. Apparently, as we hear, we're just waiting for Donald Trump's approval on this memorandum of understanding uh or understandment, same thing. um to start a 60-day ceasefire. Iran is going to make sure the flow of traffic in the straight of Moose is restored to pre-war levels over the next 30 days. They're going to negotiate nuclear stuff in the meantime, but basically when that memorandum is signed, the war is over. Oil is going to come down and that's going to have some huge impacts in the marketplace. Look, three months ago, we were pricing in two and a half rate cuts this year. Well, sure inflation went up in Janu in uh what was it? January, February, March.

[00:06:34]Uh but inflation has come down in the last two months, right? Even core PCE today has, you know, it's come down a lot. We don't have an inflation problem, right? It actually went up December, January, February, came down in March, and just came down in April. We don't have an inflation problem. This was part of what caused the markets to, you know, do really well today. But we still have the looming threat of this war continuing or starting up again. And that is definitely pressuring the market. Now, as oil comes down, as we can go from again pricing in two and a half rate cuts three months ago, four months ago, to pricing in two rate hikes as you know, last week to now we're kind of pricing in one rate h about a 50/50 chance of a pause or a rate hike. When the war with Iran comes to an end, you're going to see the probabilities at least favor a pause this year. But you're going to see rate cuts get priced back into the markets. At least a possibility of rate cuts. Right now, there's a 55% chance of no cut or no hike. There is a 36% chance of one hike, 8.3% chance of two hikes, and a 1% chance of three hikes. These two columns are going to go away. This is probably going to fall to 20%. And the odds of a rate cut are probably going to go to about 20% as well. UBS today came out with a new note saying that markets are overpricing Fed hawkishness. Now, we haven't heard from Kevin Walsh yet, new Fed chair. So, there's obviously some people that are bracing for the worst. I think honestly the Fed's going to be lot a lot less important for the markets um going ahead because, you know, Kevin Walsh, I don't think he wants to flip-flop as much as Powell did. You know, every Fed meeting there was a new narrative by the Fed based on one or two readings of inflation. I don't think Kevin Walsh wants to do that. I think he wants to let things kind of play out a bit, intervene when they need to, and just let the market forces uh be here.

[00:08:46]So, you know, the next Fed meeting, which is two weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, and 41 minutes from now, to be super uh specific, is uh that's going to be a big catalyst for markets. Now, that's going to come right at about the same time that SpaceX is IPOing on June 14th. Now, here's the deal with SpaceX. I actually, me and uh Evan in the trading community, shout out to you if you're watching this video, we were uh having a little bit of a debate about SpaceX. He he says I'm wrong um about the way that I look at SpaceX and a lot of what he says makes sense like like uh forget what terminology he used but basically he said that I that he thinks people are making the mistake in even comparing SpaceX to other stocks in the marketplace because it's so different it's so unique and he thinks that um data centers in space and some of these projects are going to come to markets a come to market a lot faster than other people think. And if that's the case, then SpaceX at a three trillion likely three trillion2 trillion dollar valuation is okay. It's a question of duration and it's a question of have we priced in too much too quickly. Now SpaceX doesn't have to collapse, but I do think SpaceX, if it IPOs at 2 trillion, probably goes up 50% before you can even trade it. It's probably a $3 trillion market cap by the time you can even buy the stock. I do think that's a little bit of a a moment where Wall Street could say, "Okay, look, maybe we've priced in too much too quickly."

[00:10:25]And what Brad Gersner is going to say is is is basically, look, we are at risk of a run-of-the-mill correction. He's super long this stuff, right? He's super long the AI trade. Everyone is. Um, so this is somebody that's really bullish on the trade, saying, "Look, we have priced in a lot. We could have a run-of-the-mill correction." I do think the risk is around the SpaceX IPO and just the sentiment around that uh being look, we're all positioning for this IPO. The IPO is here. Let's sell the news. I think that's a possibility. Now, mix that with my general uh thought process around the war with Iran coming to an end, the rate market kind of repricing, 10-year Treasury yields falling, oil falling. I don't think we're going to have some kind of market catastrophe on our hands. I think we're going to have a pretty violent rotation. Now, how much do semiconductor stocks fall? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine.

[00:11:21]They're up a lot. 10 20% correction like Brad Gersonner said run-of-the-mill kind of scenario makes sense to me the risk for the semiconductor trade the real risk is what do hyperscalers say next earnings right which we're going to start getting earnings from hyperscalers in the next two or three weeks here three or four weeks you're going to get really all of them the next two weeks you're going to start getting more of your banks and then about 3 weeks from now you'll start to get the first round of hyperscalers four weeks you'll get basically the rest of them. Um, so over the next month, do hyperscalers raise guidance more than expected? The question is, does AMD and Intel doubling in a month price in a higher capex growth rate than what hyperscalers are going to give us? That's that's all this trade comes down to in the next 3, 6, 12 months. If Wall Street's expecting Amazon to spend $300 billion next year and Amazon says they're going to spend $300 billion next year on capex or you know I'm just throwing out numbers here right the the semis are not going to go up on that because you're meeting expectations you need Amazon to spend 350 billion you need to impress okay because the markets are really efficient at pricing things in if the risk is that let's say Amazon comes out markets are expecting 300 billion in capex and Amazon spends says look we spent $200 billion last year whatever we're going to spend $250 billion this year in capex that's the risk it's still growing it's still great there's still a lot of money being spent but it's just lower than expected that's the risk that's the more medium-term risk that's what really sets the AI trade back 3 6 12 months I don't know if that's going to happen it's a rush to to get as much compute as possible. That's not my base case here, but I think just a a a quick sharp sentiment reset is likely in store. I do think other areas of the markets that have not participated in this market rally are at risk in a good way of seeing a lot of upside quickly.

[00:13:32]Cyclicals, communication services, things that benefit from lower oil and a stronger consumer. software will benefit when the hardware trade comes down.

[00:13:42]There's going to be selective winners like we've seen with, you know, Snowflake, right, and Data Dog. These these companies that are clear and obvious winners of the AI revolution are going up 20 30% on earnings. You know, I think there are other stocks here, smaller companies like a UiPath that are going to do well, you know, longer term with AI. I think Zeta, Zeta Holdings going to do really well longer term with AI. probably something like a service now as well. Although, you know, some of those are probably going to take a little bit longer to show um that they're going to impress Wall Street, right? I think uh AI software stocks right now, nobody loves them. You need to be picking the winners. If if you're really trying to win in this game and make as much money as possible, some of the biggest winners at this point are going to be these AI software names.

[00:14:31]But, you know, I like Royal Caribbean. I like Airbnb. I like all of the travel really. I think that's a trend that's going to be with us for decades. I think COVID kind of switched things. People are like, "Okay, life's short. Um, I want to travel. I want to go experience things." And that's what you're seeing in the uh travel numbers. Problem is consumer sucks. If the consumer gets stronger, oil comes down. Both of those things benefit the travel companies. So, I think travel could actually do really good, especially even as we head into summer. That's the busy season for travel. Um that's uh that's a very interesting trading idea. Over the next three, six, even 12 months, AI grows the economy, productivity, affluence in the consumer, travel's going to benefit from that uh more. You know, financials, rates coming down, stronger economy, stronger consumer, financials are a very interesting place to be. Something like a SoFi, even Wells Fargo that has underperformed even other larger banks, something like a Robin Hood is very interesting. If crypto can come back to life, especially if the AI trade takes a little bit of a a back seat, some of these other areas are really going to outperform, I think, over the next couple of months. Take it back to the basics of what Warren Buffett says. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. Qu You want to ask yourself, are you being greedy in in in sectors and stocks where people are fearful?

[00:16:02]If you're chasing what everyone loves, are you be, you know, are you being uh uh should should you be fearful if everyone else is greedy? Probably. I I still think that one quote holds a lot of precedence today um as it did when it was first said. So again, I think there's a lot of opportunity in this market, but you do want to be very selective with the stocks that you are buying at this stage. They are not all created equal. Now, I want to share with you guys this clip from Brad Gersner.

[00:16:37]I'm probably going to skip around a little bit. It's about 9 minutes long. I have it on 1.5 speed here to kind of make things flow a little bit better so it's not taking so long to get through this. I think you should definitely hear it. Um, so take a listen.

[00:16:52]>> One beat and the massive beat really came from these two trends. AI is accelerating their core. More tokens, more uh faster growth in their core. And number two, their products like Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex Code hit a critical mass in Q1. So I expect this growth to continue. We're seeing it as well in other companies that we own like data bricks and click house. Uh but Snowflake continues to be a very very large personal holding uh for me. Uh we moved out of it in the funds because I'm in the business. I have to manage this stuff. Year to date, Snowflake is up 10% even including today's moves. Compare that what we move the money into like Micron which is up 200% year to date or ARM which is up 200% year to date. So for our investors for our shareholders that was the right thing for us to do even though today is an absolute spectacular well-deserved blockbuster day for snowflake.

[00:17:28]>> So a couple things. So you're not taking any profits for example in a mic in the micron given the crazy move that we've even seen since we last spoke just as you said two weeks ago. Let let me deal with that first and I have another question about snow and data bricks.

[00:17:39]>> Right. So so yes we are actively managing our portfolio Scott. I can't give you every tick and trade, but I will say with these parabolic moves, we absolutely are making sure that we're taking down some of our exposure in names that exceed our price targets, rotating it into other names. But remember, you know, uh, on the all-in pod, we have this this phrase, let your winners run. So, a key in this business is that you got to let the best companies continue to compound. You've heard me say it on this show before, a simple heristic for the people watching at home, think about a size, think about managing your portfolio in three sizes, small, medium, and large. Okay? And when things are all washed out, when everybody's despondent like they were earlier this year over the start of the Iran war, maybe you take your portfolio to a large position. When everybody gets euphoric, you may want to take your portfolio from that large position to a medium-sized position. In in my parliament, I call it 369, 30%, 60%, 90%. So, of course, when we see these types of moves, we take a little off the table that we can redeploy when we see volatility in the market. Um, you know, that's our job.

[00:18:28]>> So, back to Snowflake for a minute because you you put it in the same category as data bricks, which you're an investor in obviously, and we wait for that to go public, too. Um, to what degree is Snowflake, to use the words that Kramer used this morning, coming after data bricks, the competitive angle now, what does that mean?

[00:18:43]>> Well, make no mistake about it. These companies have been competitive from day one. They are they're run by incredibly competitive people. They do very similar things. Um, uh, but at the same time, this is one of the largest TAMs uh the world has ever known. Intelligence.

[00:18:54]Every small, medium, and large business in the world is going to consume more tokens in the future, more intelligence in the future. So, there's plenty big TAM for both of them to grow very quickly for a long period of time. But, they're going to battle it out. I don't think it means that one's going to win and one's going to lose. And don't count out Glick House, which may be the fastest growing of the bunch. Um, which is also, uh, you know, one of our shareholdings. We fundamentally believe that data is the oil that runs the AI engine. And these are three of the most important companies in providing the data. So, as more tokens are consumed, more data is consumed. And these companies are benefiting from that and you see it in the results.

[00:19:21]>> Hey Brad, it's Josh Brown. If uh, let's say a hypothetical CNBC viewer with $100,000 in cash from for whatever reason, they want to put it into the market. They believe in the AI story.

[00:19:29]They believe it's secular and it's got years to go. Um, but they're staring down the barrel of an $86 billion IPO raise in the near term, not to mention probably something close when you combine anthropic and open AI, maybe even more. Can the market support that much supply of new tech stock hitting the market at the same time? Um, what would you tell that viewer who's saying, "Yes, I want to invest. Yes, I understand I shouldn't time the market, but I feel like there are three asteroids headed for Earth, and maybe I should wait till after." What how would you how would you think about that if you were that viewer?

[00:19:57]Repowering means to replace old and outdated tech with newer technology.

[00:20:02]Project like these could help Germany realize its vision for a renewable energy future.

[00:20:12]>> Yeah, Josh, great question. And I loved your earlier commentary on Snowflake.

[00:20:15]Let's just say this. Today is not the day that you shove all in on the market.

[00:20:18]You know, go back to the heristic I used 369 and let's say you have zero in the market today and you want to put $100,000 to work. Then I would put three, right? Right? I put 30% of that to work because you have to start at some point and then you wait for your moments. Yes, we have incredible IPOs coming starting with SpaceX rumored on uh June 12th. Hopefully, I'll be back in the New York Stock Exchange with you guys. It's going to be an incredible IPO. It's going to raise about 75 >> It's going to raise about $75 billion.

[00:20:38]Okay. So, when if Altimeter and we do want to buy the SpaceX IPO, I've got to raise that money from somewhere. So, I've got to sell some other stocks in order to buy SpaceX. That's just the way it works. We don't have unlimited capital. When Anthropic comes public in the fall or OpenAI comes public in the fall, I'm going to have to sell something else to buy this. So your point is is is certainly correct, but the only thing I would say Josh is remember the depth of our capital markets. I mean, we're talking hundred trillion relative to $75 billion. So in the grand scheme of things, I think particularly because we're going to have early adoption, early inclusion in the index uh for SpaceX. I think there's going to be enough capital to do to to do that. But the bigger risk right now is simply that we've come a long way quickly, right? We could have a 10 to 20% consolidation in the socks or these other technology and AI markets, and that would be a run-of-the-mill consolidation. So you want to make sure that if you're watching at home, you have some cash on the sideline. So when the market comes in, the secular trend doesn't change. AI is where you want your money, but do you have some more dry powder to buy those things?

[00:21:26]>> I look, the one thing I'm thinking about with the inclusion of the indices, and Brad, I'd like your opinion on this, is the waiting in the indices because they're going to have a market cap SpaceX, you know, one and a half trillion, and yet the at least with the triple Q's, they're talking about something like three times the float. Do you see any discrepancy in that? Does that lead to more upside if the float becomes bigger and they can add more to the indices? Just curious about your thoughts on that.

[00:21:43]>> Yeah, I I mean, honestly, I've seen a lot of analysis on this, Jim. Frankly, it's a little too complex. I think for most of the viewers at home and even for myself, I'm not going to try to game that. All I know is this. There's no human being on the planet that is better at turning electrons into tokens than Elon Musk, right? Let me say that again because we focus a lot on the launch business. We focus a lot on the communications business, right? Which is Starlink, which we all benefit from. But Elon is building the biggest data centers on Earth and eventually in space of anybody and nobody is better at turning those electrons into tokens.

[00:22:08]That is an extraordinarily valuable place to sit. He just struck a huge deal with Anthropic. I think more deals are to come and that from my perspective totally changed the game on the SpaceX IPO. I knew that the launch business was great. I knew that uh Starlink was great but that alone would not justify the valuation. Him building the data centers which are going to power all of AI and him then using those to train up his own AI with incredible team uh that he acquired from Kurser I think is a total game changanger for the IPO and puts them in a really good position.

[00:22:32]>> Wow. Okay. You come sit with us mid June. We'll do what we did for Cerebras.

[00:22:35]That was fun and I appreciate >> So yeah, pretty uh pretty interesting perspective on all of it. I've kind of shared my thoughts around SpaceX. You know, IPOs just normally don't do well after IPO day. This one's a little different with the inclusion into the indexes, the trunching for the lockup period is different. So, instead of like a six-month or ninemonth lockup period after an IPO where um you know bigger investors cannot sell for many months after, this is kind of in tanches. So like the earliest investors are going to be able to sell first, stuff like that.

[00:23:14]So it's a little different. You're not going to get all of the supply basically coming at once. You're probably still going to get a good chunk of it, you know, 6 9 12 months from now. But uh yeah, I'm a little bit nervous just from a sentiment perspective. A bit of a reset there. Um it's going to be interesting to see how it goes. I think there are some stocks like Tesla that that could be interesting trading ideas around the SpaceX IPO. Um but yeah, I think there's other bull stories in the market beyond just the stocks that have doubled in a month. Literally like Micron, AMD, Intel. I don't think those stocks give you good riskreward at this point. And if you're looking for outsized returns, um, taking as little risk as possible, I don't think those are the greatest areas to be in because in all reality, what happens if if MAG7 comes out and says, "Yeah, we're going to grow capex, but not as much as Wall Street thinks, the whole trade is going to uh kind of bog out and stall out for 6, 12 plus months, right?" Um, that's a larger risk that grows larger as the as these stocks are are going higher. You know, the risk of a disappointment on capex numbers is a lot higher today now that these stocks have doubled in a month, you know, versus the risk a month ago. So, I wasn't really talking about this as much a month ago, but now I think it's simply a a problem with pricing, right? Even if the the the hyperscaler capex guidance a month from now is great, it's probably not going to be enough to send these beneficiaries even higher like a Micron, SanDisk, AMD, Intel, Nvidia, right? You've just priced in a lot quickly. So that run-of-the-mill correction that Brad Gersner was talking about, I think it's probably likely, but there are other areas that are actually going to benefit and win as that happens. And that's kind of what I'm positioning for at this moment. Do me a quick favor, hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is of course down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next