The Senate Race That Could Break MAGA

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]So on Tuesday, we wrapped up the most expensive primary in American history.

[00:00:04]Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated sitting US Senator John Cornin.

[00:00:08]Cornin actually is the sixth most senior Republican in the Senate. So this was an upset uh if you take it back to the beginning of this race. Tons of money came in behind Cornin. Um but he lost uh maybe in part because Trump came in with a late endorsement of Ken Paxton. Um, and now we've got a race shaping up between Terico, James Terico, a state legislator uh, in Texas who's the Democrat versus Ken Paxton. And what I'm going to do in this video is, uh, try to give you an objective analysis of the dynamics of this race. So, what are the different arguments that each side is going to make? What are the sort of advantages and potential uh, risks and vulnerabilities of each of these candidates? And by way of disclaimer, I worked on Obama's first presidential campaign. And I then started a group called Arena which became the largest campaign school for Democratic staffers in the entire country. Uh and I also ran the communications director track there where I trained over a hundred uh campaign communications directors over the years. And so I come at this as a a Democrat in terms of my uh political background. But in this video, my goal is to be as objective as possible to just say, "Hey, like what's actually going on in this race?" And take my partisan hat off. So as a starting point, you know, one thing we teach in our communications track is whoever frames the question in the race wins. Uh and what we mean by this is, you know, historically um for example, take Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama in the primary in 2007208, my first campaign. Uh Hillary wanted uh the question the electorate would ask, she wanted the question to be who's the most experienced? Uh, and if that was the question the electorate asked, then she would win because she had the most experience. Whereas Obama wanted the electorate to ask a different question, which was who would bring the most change. And obviously he won and he won in large part because that was the question that he got the electorate to ask. Um, you know, you could see this dynamic play out again in the general election. McCain more experienced. Obama uh more green but also against the Iraq war was going to bring that change, right? Um similar dynamic with Trump versus Hillary. Uh she was quote unquote the more establishment person, more experienced. Trump was going to be the person who was going to bring change, right? So, whoever frames the question wins uh the election. So, uh, Republicans, they want the question to be, and we'll see this in vivid detail in a second, is Torico weird? Right?

[00:02:42]That's what they want. They want him to be weird. They want him to be out of touch, super liberal, right? Is Torico weird? If that's the question that the electorate is asking, uh, it seems like Republicans are confident that they will carry this state that they absolutely need uh, to keep control of the Senate.

[00:02:59]Now, what question does Taller Rico want the electorate to ask? This one's a little murkier at the moment. Um, but there's a couple of different questions I'm seeing in some of his messaging. One is, uh, who's just going to make life more affordable? Uh, that's one. Uh, who's going to be the least corrupt, right? Is Ken Paxton corrupt or who's going to be the least corrupt? That's kind of the second. Uh, and there's this uh, bus tour that they just announced around the state, which is the people versus Ken Paxton, which seems to be a packaging of the corruption and the affordability argument. Meaning, they're going to try to make some kind of argument that um, prices are going up, the economy is getting worse, uh, and Ken Paxton is corrupt at your expense.

[00:03:46]So in part, one of the reasons why your prices are going up is because of people like Ken Paxton are corrupt, right? It's a little bit more uh high concept of an argument at the moment. So you know, one sort of honest assessment I have for Terico at the moment is he's got to simplify that message and we got it's got to be repetitive. Uh because most voters in general at this point are low information voters. They need something repeated many many many times. It has to be really simple. And Terarico is weird is a lot simpler than what I just said.

[00:04:15]um in terms of the Paxton attack. So, let's start with Paxton and what he is saying. Uh he gave a speech the night of the election um that previewed some arguments he was going to make against Taler Rico. But I think the most viscerable visceral and clear uh packaging and summary of those attacks is an ad uh that either just went up or they just released it on the internet that kind of pulls together a lot of the strains of attack that the Paxton campaign is leveling against Terico.

[00:04:43]Let's take a look at that.

[00:04:44]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:04:47]>> There are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six.

[00:04:52]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:04:55]>> The American flag is such a complicated symbol for most of us.

[00:04:58]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:05:01]>> They're going to call me a radical leftist.

[00:05:04]>> This is Texas. This is not >> something that you love that's not family or friends.

[00:05:11]Um, I love, I'm just say this because it's on my mind, the trans children.

[00:05:18]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:05:21]>> Our southern border should be like our front porch. There should be a giant welcome mat out front.

[00:05:27]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:05:30]>> It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption. I am proud to say that our campaign um has officially become a nonmeat campaign.

[00:05:40]>> This is Texas.

[00:05:42]This is not.

[00:05:45]>> So, there's obviously a lot to unpack here. Let's start with uh one of the last claims there, which is this uh welcome Matt comment uh that Terico made about the border. Uh and in a lot of these cases, I'm going to try to show the the full video or enough of the video so you can understand what they're pulling from. Uh, and so in this case, let's look at the actual clip of what Taler Rico had to say about immigration.

[00:06:08]>> Um, I've always said that our southern border should be like our front porch.

[00:06:12]There should be a welcome mat and a lock on the door. Meaning we can both welcome immigrants who want to come here and live the American dream, who want to contribute to our economy, who want to contribute to our communities, make us richer and stronger as immigrants have always done throughout American history, and we can keep out people who mean to do us harm. Okay, so the quote here is I've this is what he said. He said, "I've always said that our southern border should be like our front porch.

[00:06:37]Uh that's what they clipped. There should be a welcome mat and a lock on the door. We can both welcome immigrants and we can keep out people who mean to do us harm." So I think there's a little bit more nuance, if not significantly more nuanced in what he said there. Um, I think of all the sort of claims in this video and the things that Terico said, I think if he, you know, is able to get out there and explain and show the context of what he said there, I'm fairly confident that this will be the least damaging of, uh, the types of claims that he's made in that video that they're clipping together to make the sort of Telerico is weird and out of touch argument. Uh, another sort of strain of argument that they're making here, uh, the Republicans that I've seen all over the internet. So, this is one that a lot of people are echoing, uh, are the trans comments, uh, that Talerico made. Now, there's a few of these. One of them was, uh, that God is non-binary. I'll get to that in a second. The other was when he was asked in an interview, um, a very personal question. Uh, and I think here's one where we should might as well just watch the full video uh about who he admires uh and see if this in any way adds any clarity or context to what he was saying. Let's go to this clip.

[00:07:55]>> Something that you love that's not family or friends.

[00:07:59]>> Um, I love I'm just say this because it's on my mind. the trans children who showed up yesterday at the state capital to advocate for their humanity. They shouldn't have to, but it was an inspiration to watch. So, it seems like in this clip, what was happening was he was, you know, and and mind you, a lot of these clips that they're pulling of Terico is when his primary concern seemed to be legitimacy on the left. So, it seems like he was going on a lot of left-leaning podcasts and he was kind of speaking the language of the left uh the progressive left uh at the time. Uh and if you actually watch a lot of those videos and then you try to compare it to the Tal Rico you see today, it's it's quite different, which is both both a liability for Torico uh but maybe an opportunity for him to clean some things up. Um and we'll see how he's trying to navigate that. Uh so it seems like in this clip uh there was some debate going on at the Capitol about trans rights uh and that some of the young uh trans people came to his office before that and that's why it was fresh in his mind and why he uh mentioned them as advocating for their humanity as he described it. Uh I don't think this is the one that's going to um give him much trouble compared to the non-binary comment. And actually as evidence for that is that actually Tal Rico himself for the past few days has been doing a lot of cleanup on the God is non-binary comment. Um he went on CBS News, I think this was yesterday, uh to actually say that he regretted uh his past remarks that God is non-binary. Let's take a look at that clip.

[00:09:34]>> You call it intentionally provocative.

[00:09:35]You regret describing it that way or talking about God that way?

[00:09:38]>> Uh I there are some statements that I've made that I that I certainly regret.

[00:09:43]There are statements that I've made where I've missed the mark. I'll be the first to admit that. But Ken Paxton is intentionally clipping my cringy comments to distract from his career of corruption. Now, this is interesting because I think uh what's happening here is I think a lot of Democrats look back at Kla Harris's loss and the Charlemagne, the famous Charlemagne ad uh where it was, you know, in every football game you saw there's this this uh clip of Charlemagne the God talking about Harris's uh transition with trans prisoners. And a lot of people think that was a very effective ad. Uh and whether it was effective or not, I do not know. I think I know that Republicans thought it was effective because they ran it so many times and I think a lot of the commentary after the election from Democrats was that um a lot of people drew the lesson that hey Harris did not clarify at any point that her position changed on this issue and why it changed and I sense that Terico's camp is trying to learn from that and say you know what um we're going to do some cleanup on this comment. Um, and so he says he regretted that comment. Uh, and then he tried to pivot to his message. You know, he says that Paxton is intentionally clipping my cringy comments to distract from his, uh, career of corruption. I think it's interesting that he calls his own comments uh, cringey. Uh, but then obviously he's trying to talk about um, Paxton's corruption. Uh a former Biden aid um Yamissi and and I apologize if I get this name wrong. Uh Egbo tweeted quote, "I think it's great that Taler Rico is calling some of his high net woke comments cringe. Honestly, more young people running for office are probably going to have to do this. Peak woke got weird. It's okay to say that Yissi is saying, "Hey, like actually this is good. This is progress." Uh and I think by and large this is the right playbook, right? which is to if you do legitimately think there was something you said that you no longer believe or that you don't want to stand behind anymore just honestly naming it is great and actually if you could say what has changed like one of the things that I think um Harris should have said in the last election was hey whatever sort of super lefty things that she said or did in California the easy explanation there was like hey I was uh a senator from California I was the attorney general um I was a San Francisco official And that's where I swam. I swam in those waters. But like anybody else, the more exposure I got to different kinds of people, the more I started to empathize with them and and change some of my positions because we should all change.

[00:12:17]And what she should have said was, "Hey, once I became vice president, I became uh a representative not just of the people of California, but the people all across this country." And that broadened my view and allowed me to think differently about some issues. And I think that explanation would have gone a long way to give people just a sense of, you know, what has changed and why and perhaps given you a better shot at mitigating the damage of any uh positions that you have that you think are a liability. Now, it's not me saying it's what's a liability or not. A lot of these candidates are admitting these are liabilities. And so, the question is, how do you deal with them once they are?

[00:12:55]Now, the problem for Tel Rico on this non-binary God comment is that just a few months ago, this year, he went on Jake Tapper and defended the very comments that he is now trying to say he no longer stands behind. Let's look at this clip.

[00:13:13]>> National Republican Senate Committee is already highlighting comments that you've made as a state representative.

[00:13:20]Um, for example, they're highlighting this God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is non-binary.

[00:13:35]>> What is your response to them using that and explain what you were talking about?

[00:13:42]>> Well, I understand that that comment is a little provocative. I said it on the House floor when the extremists in the Republican legislature were picking on school kids who were different. But I don't think it's controversial theologically. Most Christians would acknowledge that God is beyond gender.

[00:14:00]In fact, the Apostle Paul in his letter to the Galatians said that in Christ there is neither male nor female. And so if someone's got a problem with that statement, they shouldn't take it up with me. They should take it up with the Apostle Paul.

[00:14:14]>> So I think this is going to be tough. Uh because he's now saying that he he's changed his minds. Those are cringey.

[00:14:19]But then why were you trying to explain them away not too long ago? Right. So this is going to be some fertile uh terrain uh in the campaign. Now whether Taler Rico believes God is non-binary, like is that a material issue to voters?

[00:14:34]Uh certainly not material in the sense of like their lived experience and whether it's going to make their lives better. But these campaigns are often about social signaling. Uh, and uh, it's one of the reasons why I think the trans issue, if people do believe it was somehow an effective attack on Harris, was effective, was that it was a proxy for whether she was out of touch in general, right? And so, this is where Taler Rico um, has got to be urgent and why you see him even in these few critical days, he's out there trying to do some cleanup on these issues. Uh, another thing I'm hearing a lot is this vegan claim, right? uh and um and whether Terico is a vegan, his campaigns uh of his is vegan. Um Telerico was recently asked about this vegan claim.

[00:15:20]Uh and here's what he had to say.

[00:15:22]>> We we have seen the beginnings of Republicans try to figure out how they can attack you in this race. One of one of those uh talking points they landed on was that was that you're a vegan. Um, can can I just have your your your reaction to to to that because I have seen uh a non-zero number of photos of you eating barbecue down in Texas.

[00:15:45]>> That's right. Yeah. Our campaign basically runs on barbecue these days.

[00:15:50]And if if all they have is lying about me being a vegan, uh, I feel pretty good about our chances in November. I think it also just shows the the extent to which they will go to distract from this disastrous economy. I mean, with the way the price of beef is going up, we all may be forced to be vegans at some point. Uh, so I'm going to keep focusing on on lowering costs. I'm going to keep focusing on on putting working people first, taking on this corruption so that we can unrig this economy. I think that's what Texans want. they're kind of tired of of these of these games in our politics, the mudslinging and the the nicknames and the trolling and the owning. Like none of this is going to lower our costs. None of this is going to increase our pay. None of this is going to cut our taxes. And so I think what we're doing in this campaign is bringing people together across all these divisions, standing up to the silliness in our politics, standing up to the corruption in our political system so that we can actually start delivering protections. Now, what you'll notice here is that Telerico is being like, I of course I am not a vegan. Um, which, you know, as a side note, as somebody who believes in animal rights and climate change, like it's kind of a bummer that this is attack, but I get it. It's taxis cattle culture. I get it.

[00:17:07]I understand it. I understand why this is an attack and I understand why he's trying to distance himself from it. So, Terrico is saying he's not a vegan. He's laughing it off. He's saying this is a distraction. Um, the claim is a little different than I think what uh you would get from Tal Rico's video. The claim uh originates from this video uh which appears to be from the pandemic um of Taler Rico talking about his campaign.

[00:17:35]Uh let's go to this clip.

[00:17:36]>> We have I think heard more and more um issues of animal welfare. I think not just because it's the right thing to do and the moral thing to do, but also it's as all of you know necessary to fight climate change. It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption and that we try to respect animals in all aspects of society. And so I I am proud to say that our campaign um has officially become a non-meat campaign. So, we um have we are um we are only buying vegan products from from our local vegan businesses. Um some of you may know Big Nas. They they were Little Nonas and then they opened up brick and mortar, another Big Nonas, but uh we just got our pizza from there u today. And so um the point is that I think all of us um not just policy makers but but everyone has to take personal responsibility um in this effort.

[00:18:27]>> And so there's a couple things that are probably um juicy for Republicans on this. you know, he's wearing a mask. Uh, and you know, obviously it was probably the pandemic, but it just makes him look kind of liberal, you know, now that we look back. I know I wore masks during a lot of the pandemic. Um, I know a lot of people did whether you were no matter where you were on a lot of the sort of lockdown debate. But, you know, the combination of the mask, the empty restaurant or whatever he's in, and the fact that he's talking about moving his campaign to vegan and talking about climate change is like a juicy clip for Republicans, right? And Tal Rico saying he's not a vegan doesn't quite explain that away, which is that he had his campaign be vegan. And again, do I think this is like a material issue to voters?

[00:19:11]No. But it's like stacked. They're trying to stack these things to say this guy is just weird and out of touch. Um, and this is why, you know, Terico's out there trying to explain these things away. And again, like he can't spend too much time explaining these things away because, you know, if you're explaining, you're losing. And so he's got to dispatch with these explanations quickly and then go on the attack. Uh and I'll get in a second to what some of his attacks are. Uh Trump has jumped into the frey. He's echoed a lot of the same critiques that I just talked about and attacks. Uh he recycled a an insult that he used for Mayor Pete uh calling Terico Alfred E. Newman, like the mad magazine guy. It's kind of a dated reference. Uh, and I think this gets to the critical difference between somebody like Tyler Rico, uh, and Graham Platner, who is the, uh, Democratic, uh, for all practical purposes, uh, nominee candidate in Maine. Um, so Platner is positioning himself, and there's a huge debate about how true this is, but, Platner is positioning himself as a bluecollar kind of guy. He's a little rough around the edges. um he's dealing with a lot of uh Reddit posts and you know tattoo and things you know emanating from his experience in the military and the aftermath where he uh said a lot of controversial things. Um and this is like a critical difference between these two candidates. So, um, Platner is kind of a back of the class kind of guy and Telerico is a front of the class kind of guy. Meaning that, uh, Platner's liabilities and strengths are from him being uh, somebody who's um, if you're Republicans, you'll say he's unhinged. If you're Platiner, you'll say in his camp, they'll say that he's relatable and authentic. And his strengths and weaknesses emanate from that, that back of the class energy. the Telerico uh campaign and Tel Rico himself are very front of the class. So he's polished, he's earnest, right?

[00:21:10]He's, you know, he's he's involved in his church. Uh he's quoting scripture.

[00:21:15]And so uh they're going to try to paint Terico as out of touch um and weird um whereas he's going to try to lean on his polish and earnestness in the way that you know, for instance, Mayor Pete has done quite effectively. So very different campaigns uh very different strengths, very different uh vulnerabilities. The attacks will be very different. The defenses will be very different. Now let's talk about what Terico is saying about Ken Paxton.

[00:21:44]And on election night, Terico was ready with a video hitting Ken Paxton. Let's go to that video.

[00:21:50]>> Something just happened in Texas. The most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate. Three years ago, Ken Paxton was impeached by his own party for using his public office to enrich himself and his donors at the expense of the people. That kind of corruption is the rot at the core of this broken system. It's why we can't afford anything. It's why we can't get ahead no matter how hard we work. For 50 years, mega donors and their puppet politicians like Ken Paxton have stolen from us with their bribes, their bailouts, and their billionaire tax breaks. Ken Paxton has gotten away with it. They've all gotten away with it. But that ends this year in this state, in this race. If we the people can come together to defeat the most corrupt politician in America, we can defeat this entire corrupt system, we can start unrigging this economy. We can start raising our pay, cutting our taxes, lowering our costs. We can finally get ahead. It's time to come together. The people versus Ken Paxton.

[00:23:09]>> So, there's a lot going on here. The Taller Rico um headquarters also put out a tweet with Ken Paxton's mugsh shot.

[00:23:14]They pointed out that he was indicted on three felony accounts for investment fraud, that he was reported to the FBI by his own staff for bribery, that he was impeached by his own party for corruption, and that now um that he is the uh Republican nominee for Texas.

[00:23:28]It's time to stop him. Uh Terrico uh also said uh about Paxton that he follows the Ten Commandments, not the Ten Commandments. And this is a reference, I think, to a lot of things, but one of them is also some accusations of adultery, serial adultery, uh, from Ken Paxton.

[00:23:48]>> It is about how you treat other people.

[00:23:50]Matthew 25 is people who who haven't read their Bible.

[00:23:53]>> You're not thinking of Ken Paxton. He's attorney general.

[00:23:56]>> Yeah. Well, you know, he follows the the Ten Commandments rather than the Ten Commandments. Uh, but you know, Matthew 25 tells us exactly how we're going to be judged and how we're going to be saved. by feeding the hungry, by healing the sick, by welcoming the stranger, which is more timely now than it's ever been before.

[00:24:13]>> Now, to go through some of these claims, uh number one, uh in 2025, there were securities fraud indictments of Ken Paxton. So, shortly after taking office as attorney general, he was indicted by Colin County Grand Jury in the summer of 2015 on felony state securities fraud charges. So, the charges stem from activities that occurred before he became attorney general. While he was serving as a state legislator, he was accused of encouraging colleagues and friends to invest in a McKenzie based tech company called Servery without disclosing that he was being compensated with a commission in the form of stock to recruit those investors. Uh the case was delayed for years due to due to legal maneuvering regarding venue changes and prosecutor pay. And in 2025, the charges were ultimately dismissed after Paxton agreed to uh a pre-trial intervention deal as part of the agreement. He had to pay restitution to the victims, complete ethics training, and perform community service, but he avoided a trial and did not have to admit guilt.

[00:25:12]The second sort of category here is a 2020 whistleblower allegation. So, in October 2020, eight of Paxton's top aids and deputies. All conservative lawyers he hired took the step of reporting him to the FBI. The whistleblowers accused Paxton of bribery, abuse of office, improper influence. Specifically, they alleged that Paxton was misusing um the power of the AG's office to intervene in legal matters and launch investigations to benefit Nate Paul, who's a wealthy Austin real estate developer and political donor. They also alleged that Paul helped fund a remodel of Paxton's home and hired a woman with whom Paxton was allegedly having an extrammarital affair. So, this is when the this is where the marital impropriy kind of overlaps with the corruption uh allegations. So, aids who reported Paxton were subsequently fired and pressured to resign. Four of them sued under the Texas Whistleblower Act. And in 2023, Paxton agreed to settle the lawsuit for $3.3 million and issued an apology. Though the state legislature initially resisted funding the settlement, the FBI and Department of Justice took up the investigation, but after years of inquiry, the DOJ quietly uh declined to pursue federal charges against Paxton. Uh and that is that.

[00:26:23]Then the third third category of stuff going on here which is related in many ways is a 2023 impeachment. So the whistleblower allegations against Paxton um has request that the state pay the $3.3 million settlement triggered an investigation by the Republican le Texas House of Representatives. Um in May 2023 the Texas House voted overwhelmingly 121 to 23 to impeach Paxton making him only the third sitting official in Texas history to be impeached. The House approved 20 articles of impeachment largely centered on the allegation involving Nate Paul, bribery, obstruction of justice, mislication of public resources, and abuse of the public trust. Paxton was temporarily suspended for office without pay. The Texas Senate convened as uh as a court of impeachment in September 2023 to remove him from office. A twothirds majority, which would be 21 votes, were required. The Senate Senate ultimately acquitted Paxton on all 16 articles were brought to trial. the vote largely fell along party lines with most Republicans voted to clear him. Now, uh going on in the background of this were elections in which Paxton was targeting people who voted against him and there was a wholesale uh removal of a bunch of different people uh due to that and due to a sort of uh another debate going on about school choice in Texas where there was a voucher bill going on. And so the combination of the the Paxton um recrimination campaign and the school choice uh debates that were going on in Texas uh led to a huge makeover of the Texas legislature. And there is a lot of bad bad blood about this. So when you're looking ahead um and thinking about well what are the vulnerabilities for Paxton?

[00:28:01]There are actually a lot of Republicans who uh are have an axe to grant with Paxton because of all of those debates.

[00:28:08]Uh there's also this huge school choice uh makeover that's happening in Texas where there's vouchers and even in and especially in small towns in Texas. Uh there's a you know mixed opinions about the impact of this school choice. So I think that's going to be a sneaky issue here. Um one other sort of issue here is some of the cases that uh Ken Paxton handled as the attorney general. Uh and uh one of them is sum summed up in a tweet here by Jamie Bonkowitz. uh on Twitter, quote, "Kent Paxton offer a man offered a man one day in jail for raping a little boy. Today, Texas Republicans made him the GOP nominee for US Senate.

[00:28:48]The Republican party protects people who rape kids." So, let me explain what's going on here because I think this is this tweet is, I think, missing some critical context here. So, the first part of the tweet references a highly controversial plea deal negotiated by the Texas Attorney General uh Ken Paxton in April 2026 involving a former Waco attorney named Adam Hoffman. The charge was that Hoffman was initially facing a first-degree felony charge for continuous sexual abuse of a young boy.

[00:29:16]Um Paxton's office took over the prosecution after a local DA recus himself due to a conflict of interest.

[00:29:21]The case went to trial in 2025 but ended in a hung jury um because the jurors could not reach a unanimous verdict. To avoid facing the young victim uh forcing the young victim to testify at a second trial. This is their explanation from Paxton. Prosecutors from his office offered Hoffman a plea deal. The felony charges were dropped and Hoffman pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors indecent assault and displaying harmful materials to a minor. Uh the state's plea deal recommended uh a sentence of time served which equated to the single day Hoffman spent in jail when he was first arrested and did not require him to register as a sex offender. Ultimately, the judge rejected the one-day recommendation and insisted on a 60-day jail sentence instead. But the leniency that was offered in that deal is uh very much up for debate there. Uh so these are some of the liabilities uh and avenues of attack that these two campaigns are going to show. On the money side of things, Teddy Schlifer in the New York Times reported that if Cornin had won uh because of Cornin standing in the state, the key GOP sort of national packs that fund Senate races weren't going to earmark any money for that race. But now they may have to divert as much as a hundred million to that race. Meanwhile, Telerico raised $27 million in the first quarter uh of this campaign season, which is a lot uh for a Senate campaign.

[00:30:42]And uh he raised $3 million apparently just over the past few days since the Tuesday election. Um now, uh Jonathan Martin had some very uh helpful context here in the way of a tweet. He said, "The last uh Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas was Lloyd Benson in 1988."

[00:31:00]Texas, you know, this is LBJ days. Used to be a Democratic state, but it switched. Uh, Betto Oor came close in 2018, losing by only 2.5 um points, 215,000 votes. Um, and uh, and I'll get to that in a second. Uh, the key question here will be independent voters as well as Cornin's 36% of the electorate. So, the people who voted for Cornin, what are they going to do? Now, uh, there's this woman named, uh, Jennifer Bryant, uh, who has a Substack, uh, and I'll read you a little bit from her Substack. She said, uh, so we we just talked about Better AOR in 2018. 20 24 was very different.

[00:31:41]She said Ted Cruz was up for re-election in 2024. This time facing Congressman Colin Alred. This time he won by a more dominant 8.5%. So 2.5% AOR lost by. All red lost by 8.5% a few years later. All red was not considered a spectacular campaigner, but the more pressing issue was that the national environment was different. 2018 featured a national backlash against Trump's first term, whereas 2024 featured Trump being reelected and carrying Texas by nearly 14 points. All red was doomed from the start. The rural vote for Republicans ballooned, but the urban vote for Democrats stayed stagnant. In practice, this meant that most of the major urban areas saw more voters, but Democrats margins against the Republicans fell somewhat. see also the calculations of the two-party margin largely uh joined from the New York Times results map.

[00:32:28]Besides that, she said later, the Democrats total vote lead on border counties collapsed catastrophically.

[00:32:34]There have been other attempts to explain that, but caught most uh politically attuned people by complete surprise. Latino voters, who are extremely influential in border counties, supported Democrats much less strongly than they had up to that point, continuing a trend that had been uh ongoing since the Clinton campaign. So, uh, and then what she goes on to summarize, well, what could tilt us one way or the other? Tiny gains in rural counties could make, uh, make up some of the difference here. And if you were to isolate border counties, which I think of almost as their own category, um, what's the effect of tighter border controls now? Are people more kind of like are they are they now going to reward Republicans for tighter border border control or are they going to be just less worked up over that and vote more on economic issues? There's also been a national swing, a major swing uh sometimes 30 40 points of Hispanic and Latino voters uh away from Republicans back to Democrats. Is that going to carry across Texas and including in those border counties? Um you also there's a question of cities like will turnout spike again in cities or will it remain suppressed? Uh but what she really says is this what she calls the skeleton key is going to be the suburbs.

[00:33:44]um are there enough conceivable votes uh that could swing uh towards Telerico?

[00:33:50]She said that a net swing of even 5% better than could cover bit or's deficit and completely swing this election. So, um this is what we're looking at here.

[00:34:01]Um and on election night, uh Terico extended an olive branch to John Cornin and his supporters said, "I want to thank Senator Cornin for his years of representing the state." said some pretty nice things about Cornet. So, Terico knows his assignment here. Um, I'm going to run through just some interesting text on Twitter. You can be the judge of which of these you find most compelling. You know, White House aid Steven Miller said Democrats made history in Texas by nominating their first transgender Senate candidate.

[00:34:29]Christopher Hooks tweeted, "A year ago, James Terico was a mildly notable state legislator and now a cartel is going to spend $200 million to convince the nation he's gay. Democracy kicks ass."

[00:34:41]Jesse Hughes tweeted, "Uh, Ken Paxton had a private moral failings that he worked through and didn't let affect his job, continuing to fight on behalf of the people of Texas. James Telerico wants you to believe that the story of Jesus's birth justifies abortion. The choice has never been more clear." Eric Ericson tweeted, "Paxton cheated on his wife repeatedly, moved in with his mistress after the divorce, pleaded no contest to criminal charges related to corruption. This is Taller Rico style heresy, but for Republicans." The Democratic Twitter account posted a picture of Telerico eating meat, uh, saying, "November, here we come." Uh, Senator Ted Cruz replied, "What the hell is he eating? It's not barbecue because Terico is passionately anti-meat. Is that a tofu log?" Adam Mockler tweeted, "James Terico said, "God is non-binary in 2019, and that offended my Christian ears. Therefore, for I will vote for a serial adulterer adulterer who steals from thy neighbor and who will most certainly abuse his power once in office. Adam Parkmenco tweeted, I'd rather have a senator who eats meatless breakfast tacos and a senator eats Trump's ass. Ruben Rodriguez tweeted, "Terico talks like an AI version of Mayor Pete. I always like Pete way more than people on here, but this 2020 vintage is both worse and lands so awkwardly invoking front porches and every day of the week and twice on Sunday as a retread of idioms that no longer have purchase. Rob Flareity tweeted, "I don't know that I think Tallerico can win the thing, but basically everything that would create the conditions whereby he wins the thing are happening." My honest assessment is um I think Flarity is right, which is I think a lot of the conditions uh of a Democratic victory are in place in Texas. And the question is, is Taler Rico uh going to show himself to be a um formidable campaigner? When I look at him, I don't see a Mayor Pete like talent. Uh, you know, I don't when I see some of his explanations, I do somewhat agree with Ruben Rodriguez. Um, that there's an awkwardness to it. There's a flatness sometimes to it. Um, I could see why the Republicans are trying to kind of call him out as like quote unquote weird. Uh, even though I I don't think he's abnormally weird for a politician. I just think there's a there's he's kind of buil as more authentic. He went on Rogan and all that. And, you know, I've interviewed him before. I I don't find him yet like like abnormally like gifted as a politician in terms of his level of authenticity. Uh and I don't view him as abnormally flawed either. I think he's probably above average. Um and this is early enough where he could go one direction or the other. he could fall apart and become worse and tangle himself up or he can rise to the occasion and get significantly better and become more and more compelling over time and it's up to him and I think this race will largely be determined on that question like does he get better or does he get worse or stay the same in this election uh and I think if he is giving uh more authentic compelling concrete surprising answers to questions uh that captures people's attention and it sounds different, then I think he can win. Um, if he's, you know, kind of shelling out platitudes, uh, and playing a lot of defense, then he's going to lose this election. But one thing is for sure, um, I think of this like I think about my New York Knicks here. You know, couple months ago or even a couple weeks ago, I did not think the Knicks had a chance uh to win the NBA championship.

[00:38:24]Now, we're heading for the championship and I think we've got a chance. It might not be 50/50, but it's not 9010 either.

[00:38:32]And that's how I feel about Terico here.

[00:38:35]He has a chance and I'm very very much that, you know, the the outcome here is in the hands of him and his campaign.

[00:38:44]So, we'll obviously monitor this closely. If you haven't yet, subscribe to our channel. Uh we're going to be putting up tons of content and analyzing uh the coming midterm and then presidential elections. Uh and we'll also be doing a lot of content on learning uh lifelong learning uh as well. And so you'll get a combination of those two.