Trump Signs US-Iran Deal, But Is It Enough For Lasting Peace? | Vantage on Firstpost

[00:00:00]There's an old military saying, "The enemy gets a vote." It means no matter how brilliant your plan is, the other side doesn't read your script. They write their own. When Donald Trump started the Iran war, we thought it's going to be a grand strategic transformation. Instead, now it feels a bit like a New Year's resolution. The goals were ambitious, the announcements were dramatic, but by the end of it, most of the original objectives had quietly disappeared.

[00:00:29]Yesterday, US President Trump signed the 14-point agreement with Iran.

[00:00:34]The signing was done at the Palace of Versailles in France while concluding the G7 Summit.

[00:00:49]>> This was not easy.

[00:00:58]>> [applause] >> Great job.

[00:01:05]>> Bravo.

[00:01:06]>> [applause] >> Other parties in the deal, Iran and mediator Pakistan, also signed it digitally from their respective locations. Donald Trump defended the deal saying no other US president has ever been as tough on Iran as him. He said that the alternative would be a worldwide depression.

[00:01:27]>> So, the one thing I didn't want to see is I didn't want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could have happened.

[00:01:34]But all I know is every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship.

[00:01:41]It never went down.

[00:01:43]>> Thank you, Mr. President, for finally caring about the world.

[00:01:47]Because at the height of his bravado about how this war would end, the US president declared that there would be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.

[00:01:57]But when the text of the deal was finally made public, it read nothing like a surrender document. Instead, Iran went toe-to-toe with the world's most powerful military and emerged with one thing Washington had hoped to deny it, a plausible victory narrative.

[00:02:13]From the text, it's remarkable how much the US is offering for very little in return.

[00:02:20]Trump appears to have decided that the only thing worse than a bad deal was no deal at all. Iran, meanwhile, spent months demonstrating that it could make life very expensive for everyone else.

[00:02:33]And then presented the bill.

[00:02:35]In short, the essence of the memorandum of understanding is that the Iran gets a lot now, including tens of billions of dollars in exchange for not shooting at ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:02:47]To understand how the agreement works, you need to understand what happens immediately and what is anticipated in the future.

[00:02:54]Think of the memo in two phases. Phase one kicks in immediately. Phase two, the big stuff, the nuclear program, the long-term framework, gets kicked in to a 60-day negotiation window, which, by the way, can be extended by mutual consent.

[00:03:10]>> Okay, yeah.

[00:03:11]During a 60-day period that begins immediately after the signing of this MOU, we must work both on the details related to implementing parts of this document and on two very important issues, sanctions relief and the nuclear issue.

[00:03:26]>> If you look at this memo, you will see several articles. First point under these articles is the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that it used that used to handle a fifth of the world's oil and gas. Under the deal, the United States lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Tehran removes sea mines to ensure safe traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Fine, that's reasonable. That's actually the core problem being solved. But, here's where Iran's obligations end and America's begin. The deal states that United States immediately issues waivers for Iranian crude oil exports, petrochemicals, banking, insurance, shipping, all of it.

[00:04:03]At market prices.

[00:04:05]Energy experts have already calculated what this means. 60 to 70 billion dollars a year.

[00:04:12]Flowing directly into Tehran. For doing what exactly? For opening a straight that was open before the war started.

[00:04:20]Then there's the frozen assets. The United States will release billions in Iranian frozen assets held across global financial systems. This has to be done before the 60-day negotiation start. So the sequencing is America pays first.

[00:04:35]Iran performs second.

[00:04:36]If that sounds familiar, it is because it is.

[00:04:40]It's the same structure Iran negotiated under Obama.

[00:04:45]And Trump spent years calling that deal the worst in American history.

[00:04:50]The most discussed point in this deal is the reconstruction fund for Tehran.

[00:04:55]The memo states that America and its allies will develop a mutually agreed plan.

[00:04:59]With at least 300 billion dollars for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran.

[00:05:06]The mechanism is not finalized yet. That will be discussed during the 60-day window.

[00:05:10]>> Only if they're doing things right. Only if >> Peter >> Only if we're not doing anything. We're not putting up money.

[00:05:17]Only if they're doing things right. If they're doing things right, if people want to invest, they can invest. But they had this 300 million dollar fund. It's only 300 million dollar fund. It's only if they're doing things right.

[00:05:33]>> So, three concessions. The US walked into this war looking to obliterate the regime while the entire world took the hit.

[00:05:40]Now it's walking out of the door handing cash backs to the regime. Which brings me to this question. Has Iran made any new commitments to the United States?

[00:05:49]From the text we have, it does not appear so.

[00:05:53]Iran reaffirmed that it shall not build nuclear weapons. On ballistic missiles?

[00:05:58]Here's what he said.

[00:06:00]>> By Iran having ballistic missiles, can you elaborate on that? I I want to make sure we understand the position.

[00:06:05]>> No, I want to I'm saying that if other countries have them, it's a little bit unfair for them not to have some.

[00:06:12]A ballistic missile is not the same thing as what we're talking about what we're talking about. But if Saudi Arabia and Qatar and they all have some, I would say in relative proportion, I think it's okay. That's what I mean.

[00:06:26]>> Now, Trump will sell this as a win.

[00:06:28]Somehow preventing Tehran from ever acquiring a nuke. But that has always been the case. Iran has always maintained that it does not seek a nuclear weapon. That its nuclear program is for civilian purposes. So, this renewed commitment is nothing new. And similar to the Obama era nuclear agreement, which Trump tore up in 2018, as for Iran's nuclear material, the uranium, the nuclear program itself, those will be adequately addressed in a final agreement. In other words, Tehran has made no firm commitments on these issues.

[00:07:01]>> As you may recall, from the very beginning we emphasized that at this stage we would not discuss the nuclear issue. It was agreed that our focus would be on ending the war, and we carried out that task.

[00:07:14]>> The memo says the enriched material, in the least case, would be down blended on site, meaning it will be destroyed in Tehran itself.

[00:07:24]This walks back Trump's earlier demand that the material must be removed. The memo also declares an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts.

[00:07:31]This including Lebanon.

[00:07:33]Except there are no commitments from Iran to stop funding Hezbollah, which is still lost in Lebanon.

[00:07:41]Which Israel is still fighting and has vowed to not pull back its troops from the region.

[00:07:45]As for the Iranian people, the memo contains a particularly generous gift from Washington, a commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs.

[00:07:54]Tehran will almost certainly interpret that as a promise to stop pestering officials over human rights abuses, political repression, or the occasional shooting of protesters in the streets.

[00:08:05]Unsurprisingly, Iran secured this concession without offering anything in return. Even diplomatic giveaways now come with free shipping.

[00:08:15]The deal further mentions that the United States and Iran cannot use force or threaten force against each other.

[00:08:22]Well, this clause has already been violated. At the G7 summit, Trump threatened to bomb Iran again.

[00:08:28]>> And it's a memorandum of understanding.

[00:08:29]If it doesn't get done in 60 days, it's all right, we go back to bombing.

[00:08:33]You know, I don't want to do that because it's so good.

[00:08:36]But, we might have to.

[00:08:39]Because we're never going to let them have a nuclear weapon.

[00:08:42]>> And that brings us to the bigger question, did Trump achieve his goals?

[00:08:46]By the looks of the agreement, we can say a clear no.

[00:08:49]Washington has ended up with too many concessions. The world has endured too much economic pain. For what? For everything to get back to square one.

[00:08:58]And courtesy of Washington, Iran gets back its oil money.

[00:09:02]And more money to rebuild itself. As for deal maker Trump, Trump started the war and ended up with an agreement. He went looking for a win, but ended up with a compromise.

[00:09:14]>> The world moves fast. Power shifts.

[00:09:18]Unexpected developments. Changing alliances. Every day brings a new headline. [music] But headlines are only the beginning.

[00:09:27]Because behind every story, [music] there is context. There are consequences, and there are questions worth asking.

[00:09:37]Find the answers. Understand the story.

[00:09:40]Take on the world.

[00:09:43]This is Him Kaur Saroya for Firstpost Vantage.