Ethiopia election: Free, fair or flawed?

本站添加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:04]DW Africa link >> [music] >> From the country's perspective, this is a very positive development because it allows the public to choose a government that they trust will serve them. This election allows the people to exercise their right to choose without any external pressure. It is a good thing for both the public and the country.

[00:00:31]>> I'm happy to vote for the first time as an Ethiopian citizen. It was a great experience. When there's this kind of development-oriented government to help and to stand together, it is for this reason that I came to determine the social and economic destiny of our country in the future. We are now at a very critical time to do my part at least. This is why I came this morning.

[00:00:54]>> Ethiopia has just held one of Africa's largest elections, but is there an obvious winner?

[00:01:01]With opposition figures sidelined, conflicts still raging, and some communities unable to vote at all, experts say the Prosperity Party (PP) of incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is expected to win a landslide victory.

[00:01:19]>> To prevent the election from being peaceful as planned, Ethiopia's historical enemies have bought and deployed the forces they control and have carried out propaganda. They have tried to make us believe that democratic elections are not possible in Ethiopia.

[00:01:34]However, as the Ethiopian people always show, they are holding elections in every way I have seen, demonstrating the great heroism they show at crucial times. This is a step that shows that Ethiopian people do not need an adviser to decide what they want to build for their state, to build a democratic system.

[00:01:56]>> So, is Ethiopia strengthening its democracy or simply or simply reinforcing the power of one man? That's what's coming up. I am Eddie Micah Jr. And you are welcome to Africa Link, the podcast connecting you to the stories that Africa Link [music] every weekday here on DW.

[00:02:18]Ethiopia is Africa's second most populous country and one of its fastest growing economies. New roads, railways, and factories are reshaping the country while exports such as coffee continue to grow.

[00:02:32]But alongside that progress are armed conflicts, displaced communities, political tensions, and concerns about democratic freedoms.

[00:02:42]On Monday, millions of Ethiopians went to the polls in an election expected to deliver another decisive victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party.

[00:02:54]So, what does this vote tell us about the future of Ethiopia? For more on this, let's bring in those with their eyes and ears on the ground. Dr. Bizuneh Yimenu is a lecturer in comparative politics at Queen's University Belfast in the UK. I also have DW's Negash Mohammed who is on the ground inside Ethiopia.

[00:03:15]Hello and welcome to Africa Link.

[00:03:17]Negash, election day has just passed.

[00:03:20]What did it actually look like where you were? Was it calm, chaotic, or somewhere in between?

[00:03:26]>> In Addis Ababa, so I have seen many polling stations yesterday. We have 14 different districts, what we call woredas.

[00:03:38]So, the voting process was normal, very peaceful. There were in fact minor errors like IDs and registration process, lack of registration, and in some area, in two or three areas, um there were reports that um the members of the National Ethiopian Board of Electoral Board were helping uh or um telling to voters to whom to vote.

[00:04:09]That was um in two or three polling stations. Uh so, in Addis Ababa, it continued because there were the turnout was very high, uh and it continued until midnight, um the voting process. I was also this morning in different polling stations and also Woradas.

[00:04:31]I have observed that um they still count the votes. They have not yet completed until around midday. Some have completed, but they have not yet officially announced the result even at um um polling station level. So, we are expecting maybe some uh sessions will announce the results. But, outside at this as you may have heard, especially in Amhara and um Oromia regions, uh both voting was uh suspended in some areas for a few hours, but in most areas uh for maybe the whole day.

[00:05:11]Uh about 143 uh polling stations were um either attacked by a rebel group or there were threat of attacks. That's why the um National Board of uh Election has announced that that this um 143 polling stations uh voting has been suspended. Uh so, security is um major issue everywhere.

[00:05:38]If you speak to anyone, either whether it is a candidate, political analyst, or um ordinary uh voter, so they will um tell you how uh they are frustrated with the situation, with the security situation in Ethiopia.

[00:05:54]>> Thank you very much for that, Negash.

[00:05:55]So, we're speaking to you on the 2nd of June. That's the day after election day.

[00:06:01]While it seems that turnout was high overall, what does this really say about the election if so many people have not had the chance to vote? I mean, clearly it's pointing to the incumbent Prime Minister staying in power as some experts have been saying. Is that what it's looking like based on what you're hearing and seeing on the ground?

[00:06:25]>> No question about it. Some analysts even said that this is an election where the ruling party, Prime Minister Abiy's party, just to maintain its status quo. And some say the result is known even before the voting days. But there are some also unexpected participation from a long-time opposition party like the Oromo Liberation Front, who has been active in Ethiopian politics since some 50 or more than that years ago. So, they have participated in this election for two reasons. One, if they are not participated, take part in this election, they they were not participated in the last election in 2021. So, there is this electoral board's rule. If a party doesn't participate in two elections, so he will lose its license. So, they say, I spoke with one of them. So, they say they have participated to just keep the license, the party license. But they have participated in many areas for the first time in 50 or more than years. So, you will see such kind of things. On the other hand, there is no as such a strong opposition party who may be challenge the PP, the Prime Minister's uh Abiy party, that is Prosperity Party. So, it's um I mean um maybe the numbers may vary, but uh the results will be the same as um many have expected.

[00:08:10]>> Right. Thank you very much uh Negash.

[00:08:12]Really good way to to set the tone for us. I'm going to come to you uh Dr. Yemenu. That sound to me, based on all that I've heard, that this election may have not passed the credibility test. What do you say?

[00:08:29]>> So, we have to be clear when it comes to how we are going to test the credibility of an election.

[00:08:36]So, election will be credible when it is fair, free, democratic, and competitive.

[00:08:42]So, we can see that based on like different reporters, it looks like, you know, opposition parties freely contested.

[00:08:52]And but if you ask me, is it competitive enough? I would say, "No, it's not competitive enough because opposition parties were fragmented.

[00:09:01]They some of them are weak. Some of them were simply participating to keep their license as Negash mentioned.

[00:09:07]So, in most parties, opposition parties did not compete because of capacity issues, because of security, and other factors. So, it's not competitive enough as a democratic election should be.

[00:09:21]Uh but I have been observing that some opposition parties were freely campaigning and, you know, conducting different activities.

[00:09:30]So, that the there is a kind of imbalance or asymmetry between the ruling party and the opposition party where we have a ruling party which is very strong, very structured, and has capacity and also millions of members and supporters. And on the other side we have very fragmented, weak opposition parties that could not pose serious threat for for the ruling party.

[00:09:58]So, when you compare on that angle, it's not competitive enough, but even if it is competitive enough, I would say even if opposition parties are strong, the ruling party would still be going to win election because of huge asymmetry in Ethiopia's political landscape.

[00:10:18]>> Right. Thank you, Bezuneh, for that. Um Negash, I'm going to come back to you.

[00:10:24]You You're really in the in the heat of everything.

[00:10:27]I understand that the election results are expected latest by the 11th of June.

[00:10:34]Tell me more about what you know and and what happens till then.

[00:10:38]>> Uh well, Ethiopia is a very large country, so results um will be collected from different parts of the country until then. So, they will um count here. And in some areas maybe they will um conduct the election maybe where they call it uh conducive atmosphere is there.

[00:11:00]Uh by the way, um it will take I mean, in some areas it will take uh maybe weeks to transport the uh voting the cards. So, uh that is what we expect. In terms of the Tigray and the eight um woredas or districts in Amhara, the recently the head of the National Ethiopian Electoral Board has said that uh election may to be conducted. We had also the same kind of things in 2021. In Tigray was not election and there were there were no election at that time in some areas in South West Ethiopia in Benishangul and some parts of Oromia and Gambella also the voting took place very late after the national election maybe months or year. So maybe they will conduct the election sometime in the coming so that they I mean can't join the parliament from this areas. The 46 that I have mentioned is 38 in Tigray and eight in Amhara. So in fact it is hard because to leave such a seat in the parliament 46 is not the number that matters but the representation. Now even the constitutions that the federal government should be formed with agreement of regions. So one of the region is not there Tigray. So if it's very hard and in some areas the Pretoria agreement looks like to just take the to bypass the constitution but in in some areas you see that the people in that region has no representation in the parliament and the region in general is not part of the federal parliament. So this will be I mean needs continuous discussion how they will go about it.

[00:13:12]That will be a question that comes maybe in the coming three four months and will keep on.

[00:13:19]>> And then guys I mean when you speak to people on the ground, what is the general sense you're getting from them about how the election has been conducted so far.

[00:13:30]>> There are some complaints. Uh there some people complained that they were uh either threatened or forced to take the card, the voting card, but it was before the election.

[00:13:42]Uh but most of them say that they are uh well uh happy to vote. Um whoever uh will win on this election, what they say is that the main thing There are two issues. One is peace and security, security, and uh which is um very, I mean, in most um commentators in a very frustrating situation. Even some uh few hundred kilometers from Addis, traveling from Addis to uh another uh region will be very hard.

[00:14:15]If you travel with a car, you'll be either hijacked or killed. So, they insist that the future government should give priority to maintain peace and stability.

[00:14:30]Everybody says that. The second is the economic issue.

[00:14:35]Um unemployment is uh very high here.

[00:14:40]Um living condition is very expensive. So, these two uh issues are um the main issue that everybody uh says whenever you speak with them.

[00:14:53]>> Thank you very much, Nagassan, and thanks for winding down with that comment because I'm coming straight to you uh Dr. um Yemanehu with that. I'm just wondering what kind of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been. I mean, we're talking about a Prime Minister that came, tried to make peace with Eritrea, it won the Nobel Peace Prize, and then there was the Tigray war, and people were questioning why this man of peace is, you know, at war. Who is Abiy Ahmed now? The Prime Minister that has been in power for for several years now.

[00:15:23]>> Um I mean, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from the very beginning was um uh very like popular. A lot of people were anticipating he he was going to transition the country towards democratization and we have seen a lot of promises and like opening up political space, uh allowing, you know, formerly exiled political parties and leaders to come back to the country and take part in political life peacefully.

[00:15:52]A lot of reforms, impressive reforms were conducted uh that eventually led to Nobel Peace Prize, even if the prize was primarily for the peace deal he made with uh Eritrea.

[00:16:05]So, and then after that, the Tigray conflict uh Tigray war started.

[00:16:11]So, it's important to see Abiy Ahmed as one actor among the many in in Ethiopia, even if, you know, he's head of the government.

[00:16:20]Um I don't think it is very hard to to associate any problem in the country with the Prime Minister because the Prime Minister alone cannot make peace, especially if you consider the Tigray region and the Tigray war. The war was not started only because of the fault of the uh the the federal government because it was building up for 2 years and the TPLF were, you know, controlling so much uh military capabilities and eventually that led to war. So, it's very hard to to bring peace by one actor. So, the rebel group, whether it is TPLF or OLA, or Fano, they they should be, you know, part of the the process of transitioning Ethiopia. So, Abiy has done a lot of impressive things in terms of development, in terms of infrastructure, especially in terms of renovating and beautification of cities and uh you know, starting mega projects and even completing the great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. But politically uh there are there has been problems that we anticipated the Prime Minister should tackle, but that did not happen.

[00:17:30]>> Totally get where you're going with this. You're saying that of course it takes two to tango um and while you believe uh a lot of responsibility falls on the government, you also believe the other warring sides um or the other warring side uh should also come to the table to try to find a peaceful way forward. That That is well noted. Um Negash, I'm I'm going to come to you as we wrap this up.

[00:17:54]Two quick questions for two quick answers.

[00:17:58]One, Ethiopia before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia now after years of Prime Minister Ahmed, where do you see the country headed?

[00:18:09]>> In terms of uh economy and uh liberalization of the economy, Prime Minister Abiy's government has um done a lot and infrastructure building is very Now, I'm in Addis Ababa. In some areas um I don't even understand which area it was. There are some uh such kind of um developments. Um but most of them are in the cities.

[00:18:37]Uh the rural area remains the same. I have been here uh a month or two ago uh outside. And also security is a major issue. I mean, now um the day before yesterday, my family members of my family were coming from Awash. It's 200 km east of Addis Ababa.

[00:18:57]In between, they were hijacked. One of them were hijacked. Then the second car that was following my family members were attacked and um looted. So it's less than 200 km from the capital.

[00:19:13]>> By who? What do you know about the incident?

[00:19:15]>> I don't know who they are, but they are, I mean, gunmen who either associated with some rebels or those who just want to have some kind of ransom or money.

[00:19:27]So, we don't know. It's up to the government to know them and to secure the area.

[00:19:32]That was um um everybody's expectation, I mean.

[00:19:37]Uh so, you will see this um kind of lack of security. It's the same in Amhara region, for instance. Before the Tigray war, there was no conflict in Amhara region. Uh they even some of the the now turned to the rebel group were part of or associated with the government forces to attack uh the other side, the TPLF forces. So, it is also the Prime Minister or his government alone will not be accountable for everything, but the main the main issue should have been from the government itself. So, they should have either tried to find out uh to negotiate with the rebel groups or who have some grievances with the activity of the government. There are many issues here.

[00:20:27]It's not only the economy, the politics, but there are ethnic issue plays a lot here in Ethiopia since the last 30-something years. So, this issues have not been properly addressed for the last 8 years. We have um conflict in Oromia region in Southwest.

[00:20:49]So, um this, I think, uh needs to be addressed and also the issue of economy also.

[00:20:58]Inflation is very high.

[00:21:01]Um civil servants are suffering even here in the capital, Addis Ababa.

[00:21:06]Uh so, such kind of things. The reform partly is very nice, but at the same time there are people who have been affected very highly because of the reform. So, um things are the way you see it, but it is a very critical time now both for government or for the population in general.

[00:21:30]>> Thank you very much, Negash for for also sharing that personal experience about what your family went through. I hope they are safe and sound, but also you yourself, do you feel safe? You say you've been on the ground for a month or two. Do you feel safe there covering the election for us? Have you had any major encounters? And how do you expect the situation to to be for you as as you're still there covering this for us?

[00:21:54]>> I am in the capital in Addis Ababa. So, I don't feel that I'm not safe, but I don't move around after 8:00 or maybe 9:00 because you don't know who will come to you.

[00:22:08]>> Thank you very much, Negash and and I'm I'm glad your family is safe and and you feel relatively safe in the capital covering the elections.

[00:22:16]Obviously, we wish you all the best and and please take care and you know, come back to us and and share more stories with us. Thanks. Thanks for for really making the time to to talk.

[00:22:28]Doctor Yemane, you have the final words.

[00:22:31]You've heard all of this. There's clearly still a lot of issues to sort out in Ethiopia. How optimistic are you about the future of Ethiopia? Final words in 30 seconds or so, please.

[00:22:45]>> Yeah, and so far the the outcome has been mixed. Some successes, some failures, and um this is a kind of cycle that happens every time, you know, a new party come to power, especially in Ethiopia. If you go back and see the 1990s, Ethiopia has faced similar, you know, conflict between the TPLF and the central government and OLF in various parts of the country.

[00:23:08]So, the same scenario is going on now and I hope that the coming 5 years would give the opportunity for Abiy Ahmed and his government to to sit down with the rebel group and solve Ethiopia's problems through negotiation and peace come back to to the country. And I hope they use, you know, the coming 5 years to really bring what majority of the population in the country really need and deserve, which is peace and security.

[00:23:34]>> Well said, both of you. Thank you very much. Dr. Bizuneh Yimenu, a lecturer in comparative politics at Queen's University, Belfast in the UK, and DW's Negash Mohammed on the ground for us.

[00:23:46]Thank you both for for sharing your thoughts and insights with us.

[00:23:50]>> Thank you very much.

[00:23:51]>> Thank you for having me.

[00:23:54]>> Africa is changing. [music] Don't get left behind.

[00:23:58]Tune in to Africa Link.

[00:24:01]>> With a population of around 130 million, Ethiopia is one of Africa's most influential countries and hosts the headquarters of the African Union.

[00:24:12]However, Ethiopia faces increasing tensions with its neighbors, from disputes with Somalia over sea access to Egypt's concerns about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and ongoing border disagreements with Sudan.

[00:24:27]As a result, Ethiopia's stability is crucial not only for its citizens, but for the entire Horn of Africa.

[00:24:34]Share your thoughts with us on Facebook at DW Africa. Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts and subscribe to our DW Africa YouTube channel so you never miss an episode.

[00:24:46]This show was co-produced and edited by Isaac Mugabi and I am Eddie Micah Jr.

[00:24:54]Thanks for listening.

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