THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS| JAMAICA & the rest of the Caribbean's Forecast for Thursday, July 23, 2026

[00:00:00]Hello everyone. Whether Jamaica here.

[00:00:03]Welcome to this updated video on the weather across Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean.

[00:00:07]It is Wednesday evening, July 22, 2026.

[00:00:11]Now, before we jump into it, please ensure that you all like this video. I'd really appreciate it if you all get this video up to 100 likes.

[00:00:18]If you don't know about it, that's how the YouTube algorithm works. We all like the video and then the YouTube algorithm push the video to more persons who are in the path of these tropical systems so that we can keep everyone safe, especially during the peak months of Atlantic hurricane season. That's August through to October.

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[00:00:41]Please ensure that you all utilize the progress bar that's located at the bottom of the video, as well as the timestamps that are located not only in the comment section, but the video description, so that you can skip the points in the video that you want to see the most in order to save time, because we know that the videos over here with the Jamaica can be very long.

[00:00:59]Leave a comment down below and let me know what the weather has been like in your area recently. Also, feel free to ask any other related question that you might have about the future of the weather in your specific area.

[00:01:09]Taking a look at the US National Hurricane Center 7-day graphical tropical weather outlook that just came out at 6:06 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, which is actually 6:06 p.m. Jamaica Time.

[00:01:18]You can see that the only entity across the Atlantic that we're watching at this time is Tropical Storm Bertha, which has made landfall right here across sections of the southern United States. If you take a look at the infrared, we can see this spin associated with the system somewhere in here as represented by those whitish shades spinning around.

[00:01:38]But, the deepest convection associated with the storm is located offshore still.

[00:01:43]And if we take a look at the very latest stats here from the Hurricane Center, you guys see that yes, it has made landfall right here across southeastern Louisiana. It is now packing 45 mph winds. By the way, we know that systems that pack anywhere from 39 to 73 mph winds are classified as tropical storms.

[00:01:59]So, it's a low-end tropical storm right now. Definitely closer to tropical depression status than to category 1 hurricane status. And clearly it's going to be, you know, expected to weaken if it's going to be crossing over land. But look at that, there's going to be a chance for it to get back over the sea before it actually pushes into Texas.

[00:02:18]As of right now, it is moving towards the west at 7 mph and any footage that comes out regarding this flooding, damage, whatever, I'll definitely be here to keep you posted as what occurs.

[00:02:30]All right, so taking a look at the surface map here of the Atlantic for this evening. There's actually a trough right here situated to the north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. There's a tropical wave to the northeast of South America. Another tropical wave to the east of that tropical wave. Definitely intertwined with the red line that's associated with the intertropical convergence zone that extends from northeastern South America all the way down to the west coast of Africa. We can see the usual ridge of high pressure to the north that we know is responsible for sending all of the easterly trade winds across the main development region to the Caribbean.

[00:03:04]And if we take a look at the visible close-up satellite, well, not close-up, but the visible satellite images of the Atlantic before we lost sunlight, we can make out the clouds spinning away associated with tropical storm Bertha right here across southern US. Can see the clouds associated with that trough situated to the north of the Dominican Republic. And this trough has definitely been moistening up the atmosphere in around in and around the, you know, Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica area.

[00:03:31]We can also see the clouds associated with those other tropical waves across the open waters of the main development region as well. Being steered from east to west all courtesy of the ridge of high pressure to the north.

[00:03:42]We'll be talking more about the rest of the Caribbean as well a little later on.

[00:03:45]Let us focus our attention on the prediction that was made in yesterday's video about whether it will affect Jamaica for today, Wednesday, July 22, 2026. It was stated that rain could have been the forecast for parts of northeastern Jamaica on Wednesday morning. Also affecting sections of some eastern, central, and western, especially southern parishes during Wednesday afternoon. I know that northeastern parishes are basically talking about St. Ann, St. Mary, Portland.

[00:04:10]Well, eastern parishes and we're talking about those parishes in the county of Surrey, like Portland, St. Thomas, Kingston, and St. Andrew. Central parishes and we're talking about those parishes in the county of Middlesex, like St. Ann, St. Mary, Manchester, Clarendon, and St. Catherine.

[00:04:23]>> [snorts] >> Well, western parishes and we're talking about those parishes in the county of Cornwall, like Hanover, St. James, Trelawny, Westmoreland, and St. Elizabeth.

[00:04:31]And we know our southern parishes we're talking about Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, Clarendon, St. Catherine, Kingston, St. Andrew, and St. Thomas. And what ended up happening at around 8:56 a.m., the visible close-up satellite images were posted not only here on our Twitter page weather.jamaica, but they were also posted on our Instagram page weather.jamaica, on our TikTok page weather.jamaica, and on our Facebook page weather.jamaica876.

[00:04:55]So, if you have one of those social media platforms, please ensure that you follow us there as we make posts throughout the day that you cannot afford to miss.

[00:05:03]So, we can see the clouds are bringing some amount of overcast skies, if not some isolated showers, especially to the northeast of the island, so sections of St. Ann into St. Mary, section of Portland definitely gotten on some overcast skies, if not some isolated showers this morning.

[00:05:17]Then at around 1:55 p.m., the visible close-up satellite image Well, image of Jamaica was definitely posted. I had highlighted some clouds bringing some amount of overcast skies, if not some amount of isolated thunder shower activity, especially across sections of some southern and western parishes. So, definitely across sections of St. Catherine into Clarendon, Manchester, into St. Elizabeth, Westmoreland, to Hanover definitely gotten on the overcast sky, if not isolated thunder shower activity. And we can see what really took place in better on the infrared close-up satellite images of Jamaica right here. All of the blues into the greens into the yellows, oranges, and reds represent that cumulus nimbus cloud cover, especially across Westmoreland to St. Elizabeth, Manchester into Clarendon, St. Catherine.

[00:06:00]And if we take a look back at the visible close-up satellite images, you can't really see what really took place.

[00:06:05]Look at the low to mid-level flow of the clouds right here, building up across section of south-central to western Jamaica just as we predicted. That's where we had those low to mid-level becoming the cumulus nimbus clouds, for sure. And we saw those cumulus nimbus clouds even better on the infrared right here. All of the reds, all of the sparkling white dots by the way that will now represent some amount of lightning strikes, if not lightning flashes, especially across the southern to the western end of the island, just as predicted.

[00:06:36]And we definitely had some rainfall that took place in the Halfway Tree area in St. Andrew, as you can see. This is the live camera from C Jamaica's YouTube channel. That was showing 3:36 p.m. And as you can see, we definitely had some rainfall. Look at the hills of St. Andrew. Definitely got some some well-needed rainfall. The windshield wipers on these vehicles are on. The umbrellas are definitely out, as you can see here. And I'm sure some people are grateful for the little rain, the little cool down that took place in Halfway Tree this afternoon.

[00:07:08]And if you'd like to see more live streams like this, just visit C Jamaica on YouTube. We have these live streams all free to view for free. So, subscribe today to this channel so that you don't miss out.

[00:07:19]And if we take a look at the total accumulated precipitation for the past 24 hours from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology website, this map does indeed paint quite the picture where we had that rainfall today, especially across section of some south-central and western parishes. And we have a few comments from some of our followers about what the weather is like in the area today. On our Facebook page, we have Joseph Johnson posting 30 minutes ago. A a sharp shower in Mandeville. Also had Evadale Reed posting 1 hour ago. Little drizzle and the hot cold and Portmore. Now it's hotter.

[00:07:52]Uh Bromel Brown posting 1 hour ago. Not a drop of rain in Alligator Pond. Uh Paula Stevens are posting 1 hour ago.

[00:07:58]Got some isolated showers in a Bog Walk area. Not really lasting, but will keep the dust down a little. Uh Millicent Miller sitting, thanks for the update.

[00:08:07]No problem. Uh Latoya Taylor posting 2 hours ago sitting, get overcast guy and not a drop of rain. Uh Sylvia Bonner posting 4 hours ago, partly cloudy but hot in Brown's Town.

[00:08:19]Well, I also had some comments that came in here on our Instagram platform. Javon Ponton posting 8 hours ago. Spanish Town, sunny. Marlon_1 God _ posting 9 hours ago. Windy and hot.

[00:08:30]We even had uh some comments that came in here.

[00:08:33]We have Javon posting once again, Spanish Town, cloudy.

[00:08:37]Alfie posting on our TikTok page overcast 2 hours ago.

[00:08:42]And did we have any comments that came in here on our um YouTube community platform?

[00:08:49]Yes, we did. We have Laton posting 4 hours ago, Mandeville, thunder showers.

[00:08:54]Active 4810 posting 3 hours ago.

[00:08:57]Clarendon, cool and muddy. Muddy, that means you got some rainfall then, Marlon. That's good.

[00:09:02]All right, thank you all for confirming what the weather is like in your area for today. Let us reload the very latest still image here from the weather news website. Unfortunately, we don't have the latest Jamaican Doppler radar to show because it is down. So, we're going to reload the very latest Guantanamo Bay US Navy radar imagery and the latest Cayman radar so we can see what's happening right now.

[00:09:20]All right, so the latest still image here from the weather news website is showing 23:35 UTC, which is actually 6:35 p.m. So, this just came out what, 11 minutes ago considering that it's 6:46 p.m. right now.

[00:09:32]As you can see, just some leftover clouds across Westmoreland Bay Elizabeth into Manchester. You see those whiteish shades and the blue into into the greens. That represents the leftover thunderstorms.

[00:09:43]And if we take a look at the latest Continental Bay US Navy radar imagery, which is actually showing 23:32 UTC, which is actually 6:32. We're seeing some rain bands north of Jamaica to the south of eastern Cuba. Some rain bands right here to the northwest of the western peninsula of Haiti.

[00:09:58]And if we take a look at the Cayman radar as I see the rain bands right here across western portion of eastern Cuba.

[00:10:03]And the isolated showers from today's rainfall right here to the south of Saint Elizabeth.

[00:10:08]Taking a look right now at the live camera here from C Jamaica's YouTube channel, showing what's happening in the Montego Bay St. James area. As you can see, definitely a fair, nothing in the about weather taking place. People walking about and driving about going about their business. And that should be the order of the evening into the night.

[00:10:29]Taking a look at the temperatures right now, we can see that we have 28° C in Montego Bay, 27° C in Kingston. And by about 4:00 a.m. on Thursday, temperatures should dip down to about 26° C in Montego Bay, 24° C in Kingston.

[00:10:45]Taking a look at the temperature forecast for tomorrow, this map from the GFS is valid for 21:00 on Thursday, which is actually around 4:00 p.m. on Thursday. As you can see right here, the island should be painted in some grays and some light shades of blues. And we know the grays represents average temperatures, while the light shades of blues represents below average temperatures.

[00:11:04]At least 1° C at that. We know that the average temperatures for the month of July across Jamaica is around 91° F.

[00:11:11]And that's converted from Fahrenheit to degrees C that we use here in Jamaica, that's around 32.78° C. So, given that So, given that we're going to be receiving at least 1° C below average, it should be anywhere from 31.78 to 32.78° C at most for Jamaica's temperature on Thursday. And we have some tips right here to beat the heat as usual. It states here, seek shade on outside. Eat fresh or eating cold food such as salads and fruits. Rest to make sure you get enough sleep and rest if you're feeling tired. So, take a cool shower or bath to help you cool down.

[00:11:40]And I cannot stress enough the importance of keeping hydrated throughout the day. Drink lots of water.

[00:11:45]Eat my friend not thirsty and put away those sugar drinks and drink water instead.

[00:11:49]Taking a look at the dry air and relative humidity map, we know that the dry air is represented by what we see here on the calendar, right? That's light shades of browns into the darker shades of browns. The humidity is represented by the light shades of greens into the darker shades of greens.

[00:12:02]Now, across the island tomorrow, we should be painted in some light shades of brown. So, not going to be humid humid, but they're not going to have some dry air. But, you know that goes.

[00:12:10]Sometimes we get some daytime heating rainfall regardless of the light shades of brown.

[00:12:15]And for July 23, we see that not much in the of Saharan dust is expected. But, by the end of the day on July 23, some slight Saharan dust pushing in from the southeast. Then July 24, not so much. Then July 24, the end of the day coming in from and even July 25, we have some, you know, greens into the yellows into the orange that represents, let's say, not really the low end of the scale. Not really the highest end of the scale either in terms of Saharan dust, but some Saharan dust regardless.

[00:12:44]So, some hazy skies, not to mention triggering of some respiratory illnesses definitely possible over the next 3 days. We're talking about July 23 to July 25 as the string of Saharan dust continues to push its way from Africa across the main development region to the Caribbean.

[00:13:00]And if we take a look at the wave forecast for tomorrow, we see across the Caribbean a mixture of the light shades of blues into the darker shades of blues into the slight purples that we know represents anywhere from a 0.5 m wave height up to 2 m wave height.

[00:13:14]And that's because of the winds from the east averaging anywhere from 10 to up to 20 kn. Maybe even gusting up to 25 kn where we have the yellows. And if we zoom in on Jamaica's wave forecast for tomorrow, to the north of Portland, 1 m to the south of St. Thomas, 1.1 to the north of St. Ann, 0.9 of a m expected to the south of St. Well, Clarendon, 1.1 m expected to the north of Hanover, 0.7 of a m expected to the south of Westmoreland, 0.6 of a m expected.

[00:13:45]And all of this is because of the winds that are expected tomorrow.

[00:13:49]Clearly, we have an easterly flow of winds to the north of Portland tomorrow averaging 30 knots.

[00:13:53]To the south of St. Thomas, easterly winds averaging 30 knots as well. To the north of St. James, 14 knot winds from the east to the south of St. Elizabeth, 13 knot winds from the east. And we see where that air is expected to pile up, especially across sections of some western parishes.

[00:14:08]So, that's where we could have some of these low-level clouds becoming mid-level rain clouds, if not upper-level cumulonimbus clouds.

[00:14:15]And whatever comes off of the sea from the east could bring some rainfall to section of eastern Jamaica, a special concern. And we have a whole upper-level low pressure trough system in our neck of the woods. I mean, we know that it's an upper-level low because of how the clouds are speeding in our scent. I mean, look at all of the moisture to the north of Hispaniola.

[00:14:35]You can see a lot of thunderstorms over there. I can actually see a twisting of the clouds for sure. That's how we know that there's an upper-level trough of low pressure that is there. That's definitely going to be influencing the weather across our neck of the woods. We see the trough as represented by the broken orange lines.

[00:14:51]And it's definitely going to be responsible for this tomorrow. Look at this.

[00:14:55]This map from the Euro and this map from the GFS. They're both valid for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, which is actually 1:00 p.m. Jamaica time.

[00:15:03]And we're seeing the blues represent rainfall across eastern, central, and western Jamaica for sure. And we see that there is a bias for most of the rainfall to be on the north coast, and that is definitely understandable given this, the fact that yes, the upper-level low should be crossing over us tomorrow.

[00:15:21]And we see the upper level wind pattern right here.

[00:15:26]So, it's going to be pushing those upper level clouds off towards the northeast.

[00:15:31]So, given that those clouds will be shifted up towards the northeast, those cloud tops will be pushed, you know, more so to the north coast, bringing more overcast cuz if not rainfall to section of the north coast for sure.

[00:15:42]And we see that both the Euro and the GFS model are in agreement with the forecast. So, expect rainfall if you reside or work in one of these parishes we're talking about, Hanover into Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth into St. James, Trelawny into Manchester, section of northern Clarendon into St. Ann, section of central to northern St. Catherine, St. Mary, western Portland into St. Andrew, eastern St. Thomas into eastern Portland. Definitely going to be in for some more of our rainfall. So, clearly we're having the opposite of what we had happen today.

[00:16:12]Um today it was expected that we'd get rainfall across eastern, central, western, and especially southern parishes. Tomorrow it looks like it's going to be the eastern, central, western, and especially northern parishes during the afternoon. And if we take a look at the total accumulated precipitation forecast maps, both maps right here from the Euro and the GFS are showing all the rainfall that's expected from now up until 10:00 p.m. on Thursday.

[00:16:34]And we see the Euro model going up to at least 0.59 of an inch of rainfall. GFS is going up to at least 0.44 of an inch of rainfall. We know that it could be more than that, it could be less than that. We'll see it actually plays out over the next 24 hours. Whatever happens, you just have to take it because we're in the month of July. And in July, we usually receive 101 mm of rainfall this month.

[00:16:53]That's about the same as what?

[00:16:56]About the same as 4.70. No, 4 4.0. So, 4 inches of rainfall for sure.

[00:17:04]While in Manchester, we usually receive 62 mm of rainfall this month. That's about the same as 2.4 inches of rainfall.

[00:17:10]And if you would like to find out what your specific parish usually receives in terms of rainfall for the month of July or for the entire year. You can visit nomadseason.com and that website will show that information.

[00:17:22]All right, so we're going to be looking at what the next 7 days have in store for us according to the latest Euro and GFS supercomputer model runs that came out today.

[00:17:29]So, keep your eyes focused on the temperature at the top as we go out to the next 1 John 60 or is that sense of next 7 days?

[00:17:37]Keep your eyes focused on Jamaica right here as we look for all of this activity in the calendar right. That's the rest of the oranges dealers and the green jumpers millimeters of rainfall. So, let's see what's going to be taking place.

[00:17:49]All right, so 12Z on Friday is actually 7:00 a.m. We're seeing some isolated showers across far northeastern Jamaica on Friday afternoon with that rainfall across eastern, central, western parishes. What does the GFS show? Friday morning, nothing. Friday afternoon, rainfall across northern western parishes.

[00:18:05]What do we see on Saturday morning here on the Euro? Saturday morning, nothing for Jamaica. Saturday afternoon, maybe some isolated showers across central and western Jamaica. What does the GFS show?

[00:18:16]Saturday morning, nothing. Saturday afternoon, looks like some isolated showers across central and western Jamaica. What do we see here on Monday morning here on the Euro? Nothing. What Sunday morning here on the Euro?

[00:18:25]Nothing. Sunday afternoon, looks like some isolated showers across some central and western parishes. What does the GFS show? Sunday morning, isolated showers across northeastern Jamaica.

[00:18:35]Didn't see that on the Euro.

[00:18:37]Sunday afternoon, looks like some isolated showers across some central and western parishes. What do we see on Monday morning?

[00:18:43]On Monday morning, we see some isolated showers across far eastern Jamaica.

[00:18:47]Monday afternoon, looks like some rainfall across eastern, central, western Jamaica. What does the GFS show?

[00:18:52]Monday morning, rainfall across far eastern Jamaica. Monday afternoon, looks like some rainfall especially across central western parishes.

[00:19:00]What do we see here on Euro model for Tuesday morning? Tuesday morning, we got that rainfall across some southern and eastern parishes.

[00:19:08]Tuesday afternoon, looks like some rainfall across especially some central and western parishes. What does the GFS show for Tuesday morning?

[00:19:16]Tuesday morning, we're seeing the rainfall to the south and across far eastern Jamaica. Then on Tuesday afternoon, look at that, rainfall across eastern, northern, western parishes.

[00:19:24]Very interesting.

[00:19:25]We're going to be stopping right here at the end of the 168 hours. So, this is valid for 12Z on Wednesday, July 29. So, that's 7:00 a.m. on Wednesday. Not seeing much of anything across Jamaica.

[00:19:34]We see a lot of moisture here across the Bahamas into Florida and the east turn of golf extending up into northern portion of North Atlantic. Might be associated with a frontal system. And if we take a look at the same time stamp right here on the GFS, seeing a lot of moisture here on the east coast of the US, too, but not really much of anything across Jamaica at that time, either, just like what the Euro was showing. And if we take a look at the total accumulated precipitation forecast maps here, both maps right here from the Euro and the GFS are showing all the from now up until Wednesday, July 29.

[00:20:09]We can clearly see that the most rainfall over the next 7 days should be wherever we have the dark reds into the purples and pinks. They represent anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rainfall.

[00:20:16]So, we're talking about much of northern South America into Central America, including section of Trinidad and Tobago.

[00:20:23]GFS is trying to incorporate section of Guadeloupe into Dominica, Hispaniola into Cuba and section of Florida, but we don't see that really on the Euro model at all. Those areas are only painted in the reds. They represent at least an inch of rainfall at least.

[00:20:40]But areas that are painted in the darkest purples and pinks that we have consensus on are definitely across Central America into northern South America. So, some amount of flash flooding could definitely take place in those spots. And if we zoom in on Jamaica's rainfall totals for the next 7 days, both maps right here from the Euro and the GFS are showing all the rainfall that's expected from now up until Wednesday, July 29. And we see the island painted from the eastern end to the western end, especially in the greens that represent anywhere from 15 up to 30 mm of rainfall. And we see some yellows in there that represents about 35 here and others in St. Andre.

[00:21:12]GFS showing that the same areas should be painted for sure in the greens, but clearly the most rainfall should be across western Jamaica.

[00:21:20]Maybe getting up into the 30, you know, 30 mm of rainfall range. We'll see if it actually plays out over the next 7 days. Whatever happens, I will definitely be sure to keep you posted throughout the course.

[00:21:31]All right, so that's happening across the rest of the basin. Not really much of anything apart from the trough to the north of the Caribbean and tropical storm Bertha here across the northern Gulf and other tropical waves across the main development region. Nothing crazy happening right now.

[00:21:44]And we take a look at the Doppler radar images here in the northeastern Caribbean.

[00:21:48]See some rainfall across northeastern Hispaniola. See some rainfall to the southeast of Puerto Rico. Some rainfall to the east of Antigua and Barbuda.

[00:21:56]Nothing crazy. Barbuda's radar not really showing much of anything either.

[00:21:59]See some rainfall pushing into Trinidad right here. And if we take a look at the weather via the Doppler data images, some rainfall larger across western Florida. Some rainfall across section of the Dominican Republic, northern Guatemala, section of the Yucatan, southeastern Nicaragua into Colombia.

[00:22:12]And if we take a look at where the rainfall is expected within the next 24 hours, both maps right here from the Euro and the GFS are showing all the rainfall that's expected from now up until 10:00 p.m. on Thursday. We can clearly see that there's rainfall expected from that trough across these northern Caribbean islands. So, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas into Florida definitely going to be getting in at least an inch of rainfall or less.

[00:22:36]We're also seeing some of that expected for Trinidad and Tobago. Much of Venezuela getting clearly more rainfall, more than an inch.

[00:22:43]Maybe up to at least two to three possible for section of Colombia into Panama, Costa Rica. Maybe at least an inch or less expected for Nicaragua into Honduras, El Salvador into Guatemala, Belize, and the Cayman Islands. And we can clearly see that both the Euro and the GFS models are in agreement with this forecast.

[00:23:00]I don't know that when they're in agreement like this, chances are higher for it to actually take place.

[00:23:04]All right, so what's happening here across the Central Pacific? Still watching that entity to the south to the southwest of Hawaii that has now a high chance of development within the next 7 days. So, that could acquire the A name considering that they use a different list over there in the Central Pacific.

[00:23:18]But, in the Eastern Pacific we're still watching this cloud right to the south of Mexico. So, something that has a high chance of development in the next 7 days to acquire the next name after Fausto, which is Genevieve. And we're still watching Fausto right here spinning away to the west of Mexico.

[00:23:34]Definitely still looking formidable.

[00:23:36]Close-up shows that we see the deep convection. We see the reds into the blacks into the grays.

[00:23:41]Some form here. I think I see an eye somewhere in here right here for a second.

[00:23:46]As you can see, it is now an 80 mph wind a tropical well, hurricane for sure.

[00:23:53]You know, that system that pack anywhere from 74 to 95 mph winds are classified as category 1 hurricane. It is on medium range. Category 1 right now smack dab in the middle of category 1 status. We see a far the tropical storm force winds to extend taking up the entirety of that latitude and longitude square.

[00:24:13]And it is moving towards west right now at 12 mph. As you can see, it should maintain that hurricane intensity all the way up to Sunday then back down to tropical storm status by Monday. Not going to be affecting land at all and that's a good thing.

[00:24:28]What's happening here in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean? Nothing in the Indian Ocean, but Western Pacific we see an entity right here to the east of the Philippines. It's something that has a high chance of development within next 7 days. We'll see how it plays out and whatever happens, I'll definitely be here to keep you posted if that occurs.

[00:24:43]All right, so that's it for today.

[00:24:44]Thanks for watching.