Vince Lanci | Europe Is Toast, Chaos Americana & Why Copper Is Leading Silver And Gold Higher

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Welcome to episode 107 of Contrarian Corner. I'm Ben Kellerin. Today we have a very special return guest on to talk with us about everything going on the precious metals market. What's going on with geopolitics? We'll get into oil, copper, a couple other things that I think are uh definitely interesting to keep an eye on. I think it'll be good to talk with them about uh some of these different things that are changing and changing very quickly with uh everything going on in the world. But Vince, thanks for coming on.

[00:00:22]>> Hey, thanks for having me, Ben. Good to see you again.

[00:00:25]>> Yeah, appreciate it. It's uh been a wild ride as far as silver and gold to start uh 2026, but I think uh things seem to be perking up as far as silver. So, I think that'd be a good place to start and kind of get your thoughts there.

[00:00:36]Yeah, I mean, you know, uh just as a quick background, we had we had the explosive moves, uh starting in Q4 and going through January, uh of this year, followed by, you know, almost three months of of uh depressingly sideways and negative movement. Uh but the market uh has digested a lot of that and we've been constructive on silver for about two weeks now. And uh we got our we got our move uh on Wednesday of last week. That made me think things will be okay. And then we got our move today. We are I I got long on uh on Friday. And uh I'm still long today. So I'm trading this uh with a with a target price of $90. Uh and then after that 9376 and then I'm just throwing these numbers out there to get them out of the way.

[00:01:30]And then above that 10326.

[00:01:33]But uh uh the reason I'm I'm giving numbers, I rarely give targets, but that's that's a target for me for my risk. Uh I'm long right now essentially um at the equivalent of 79 and change and I'm going to hold on to it until it gets to those prices or goes back down below 79 and change. Uh the chart, and I'm not usually a chartist, but I think charts matter right now, especially when you have no news coming out. I mean if you if you look at the news on precious metals, the news has actually been bearish. Uh some banks are changing their uh their assessment of the Fed cutting with PAL staying on board uh and the economy heating up. Uh there's actually talk of the Fed not cutting now until mid27. So those are things that should that should put a a pin, you know, in silver and gold and knock them down, but they're not. And I think I think the uh I think the catalyst for one reason or another is copper. I know you've been following copper, but copper seems to be leading the whole complex now. Even though silver's outperforming, copper is leading. So what is it about copper that that you're that you're noticing?

[00:02:43]>> Well, I think the thing that's interesting, there's obviously the Grassburg mine that's I think was kind of going to be an issue for a lot longer than people expected. Now they're like moving the target back like 12 uh 12 months to get to full production again.

[00:02:56]And you see I think it's what three 3 or 4% of like global supply and the logistics for people that aren't familiar. It's a bit of a nightmare to um get up to where that mine is. So it's not something that I think is going to be a quick fix. And at the same time, you have I mean all these narratives about AI and copper demand and electrification and all this other stuff that I mean we kind of are in a narrative driven market and you see it in with in the S&P but um with copper specifically I think we're on our way to seven potentially higher as we kind of look out to the rest of uh 2026.

[00:03:33]>> Okay. So that's that's actually a good place to start because um the the bigger fund managers, the bigger macroeconomic uh analysts are now saying to take some of your money out of uh big tech and put some of it into materials. Materials meaning steel, copper, uh chemicals, basic materials. And uh that would involve silver as well, which is what we're going to get into. Uh but uh I I think I think what you're looking at is you're looking at um the the beginning of a rotation in the equity market out of some of your higher tech stuff and into your lower tech basic material stuff.

[00:04:18]Okay, never mind. Just a little bit of little bit of a distraction there for me. And uh now that copper has uh gotten a tow hold for the the reasons that you described as well uh with the delays uh silver is free to run. So silver is trading more like copper now uh than it is trading like gold. And I also think uh for just starting at the biggest picture, right? So copper is leading this basic materials are what's going on. The inflation outlook is worse than is worse than we think uh in my opinion.

[00:04:50]We've got uh the FIFA Cup coming, which is going to be inflationary. You've got the uh 250 year anniversary, the semi-quincentennial, uh which is also going to be inflationary, more inflationary than people understand. I think it's going to be uh pretty big, actually, inflationary. Uh you got all that going on and now you start to look at the actual metals and you say, well, gold's moving the opposite of oil and that's a bunch of horseshit. It's just been doing that for the last two months because it's a meme. People are talking about it now. But now you have a situation where oil's up and gold is up. You got oil up and silver up. So what is what does that say for your rationalization? Especially when I'm hearing through the grapevine that the silver buying is coming out of the uh out of the Middle East today. So it looks to me like uh we're we're poised for another run higher.

[00:05:44]Silver's tracking copper. Silver's going to drag gold higher and unless there is another dollar funding squeeze, which you know there there was, but that's just temporary, the fundamentals will kick in. And even if the Fed doesn't raise rates and doesn't lower rates, uh it looks to me like the market is ignoring that information and choosing to look more about the AI story. says your point about the narrative, the AI narrative is going to drive copper and copper is going to drive silver and silver will drive gold, but silver will outperform everything. Platinum will probably factor into it as well too, but just not not right away. So, uh I like silver. Uh I like the fact that it was in a there were if you're a chartist, you're looking at a chart on a daily chart, you had like two competing two competing formations. One was what looked like essentially we just put in a double top so to speak on a daily over the last say 20 25 days and the other is that over the last six days we've been very strong last four days specifically uh four up days in a row uh with the market still in a trading range. It looks to me like the accumulation uh uh is losing patience again and now silver's going to head higher. Anyway, I'm long I'm long silver miners and I'm long uh and I'm long silver on a speculative trade and and we're looking for that. We're looking for silver to outperform gold. You know, another thing is people who look at the gold silver ratio with gold and silver down over the last, you know, month or sideways at best. The gold silver ratio has been pretty weak, signaling that uh silver is got a lot more buoyancy to it that I think people understand. So, anyway, usually they hammer silver a lot lower.

[00:07:24]So, I like silver, let's put it that way.

[00:07:27]>> Yeah. No, it is interesting to kind of see that uh that chart on gold to silver start to look like it's going to get uh interesting head back towards 50 potentially. The uh kind of see the same thing in platinum to gold where it looks like that's uh ready for a move as well.

[00:07:41]But I think it'd be interesting to get your thoughts on kind of platinum here because it is one of the things that right the corner of the market that pays attention to precious metals is fairly small relative to kind of equities and all the other stuff. But um the people that pay attention to those some of them don't even pay attention to platinum and I look at kind of the long-term upside on platinum as very asymmetric. But what are your kind of thoughts here on the next uh I guess the rest of 2026 as far as platinum?

[00:08:08]Uh well, if you look at the platinum chart, the platinum chart looks like the silver chart minus three or four days.

[00:08:15]So I think where silver goes, platinum follows. We're in a situation now.

[00:08:19]There's there's an old there's an old uh saw that we would say it's that if you're flat, if you're bullish gold, buy silver and then if you're bullish silver, buy platinum. So platinum is probably on the same path as silver, but just it's not going to happen as quickly or as efficiently. Silver's actually moving pretty efficiently right now. I mean, it's strong, but you can trade it at these levels. Platinum is just going to, you know, gap up $300 one day. One of those type of things. I mean, I'm not predicting that. Uh, but I but I am saying that uh where silver goes, platinum follows, and then platinum ends up taking over. If you're looking at this as a cyclical trade, silver rallies, gold rallies, platinum rallies, palladium rallies, and then it's over. But it started with copper.

[00:09:01]So, uh, platinum as as just as a cyclical trade. Uh my my feeling about platinum fundamentally uh not fundamentally but just in terms of flows is that platinum and silver are in the same boat with regards to uh speculative uh fervor or the lack thereof. Uh silver open interest is is under 100,000 contracts. Uh and that's been uh a reason to not be bearish because under 100,000 contracts there's really no one left to sell.

[00:09:32]uh and that's bullish for silver and silver will drag platinum up as a result of that. Platinum is a smaller market.

[00:09:38]The other reason is is uh uh the the the runup that we had in silver and platinum in uh December, January and February, those were predicated on uh uh demand coming out of China. And since then, China has squashed that demand for platinum and silver. And yet the markets are still doing very well. So that points to me that uh if China gets involved again uh the markets could have an explosive move higher. I'm not predicting that they will get involved again but I am predicting that the industrial demand in China hasn't gone away. It's just the uh the uh speculative demand that's gone away. And you know Chinese silver is trading $10 over uh comx silver and that's been firm and staying there for about three or four weeks now. So despite the lack of interest in the west in silver and platinum uh there still is major interest in those metals uh in the Asian uh uh peninsulas. Yeah, it is uh it is interesting to see how durable the kind of gap in the western and Chinese markets are as far as like the continued bifurcation of some of these different financial markets because it's something I think is going to be an ongoing theme and you even start to see it more obviously now in oil which I think is uh to your point on inflation I think it's very interesting to see how a lot of these supply chain um impacts which haven't even really gotten to the worst stage of it that are being ignored and people are very complacent I think on what could happen into the summer as far as oil and you mentioned the kind of World Cup, you mentioned the 250th anniversary, right? It's obviously summer driving season. I think this all lines up for a very potentially chaotic period as far as oil inflation and all these other things. And people just seem to be ignoring it, saying everything's fine. Like I'm sure you saw that headline of the banker talking about like who cares about the straight horses anyway. um on Twitter. It's just like >> Exactly. I mean, well, that's that's I mean, well, I mean, I think I think a lot of people are mesmerized by Donald Trump. If he's saying something, they'll listen to that and it allows you to forget all the reality. Listening to Donald Trump, whether he's saying we're going to bomb them or we're going to hug them is a way to avoid the reality of it. And the reality is that we have a stagflationary environment. reality is that oil is going to uh base in the 90s even after even after talk of peace even after all the minations to keep futures lower. Uh the longer term deferred futures are up 25% uh from when they started. So oil is now going to be 25 to 50% higher no matter what come hell or high water for the next year to year and a half. That's that's just an opinion.

[00:12:24]>> Yeah. So, >> what do you think about the recent news out of the UAE and OPEC and some of these other geopolitical um developments that have happened recently as far as oil markets?

[00:12:36]>> Well, which one are you talking about with the UAE?

[00:12:39]>> Well, isn't the UAE leaving OPEC? Like that was announced I think.

[00:12:43]>> Yeah. Yeah, that's that's the big one.

[00:12:45]But, you know, they're also they're also uh taking defense weapons from the US and they're also getting aid from Israel now. So, you know, you have to have to be specific on these things. But the the UAE leaving OPEC, well, first of all, that's that announcement is is the end of OPEC. I mean, I don't mean literally the end of OPEC, but I mean it's it's the it's the it's the weakening of OPEC. And the weakening of OPEC is ultimately lower oil prices. The thing is though, um that won't kick in until after this war is over. And I think increasingly the war is not going to be looked at to be over for another year. Uh in my opinion, in my opinion, the war and its effects to the point that you made about stagflation not even really being baked in yet in the supply chains. Uh this is going to last another year in my opinion. Now with with UAE leaving OPEC, it weakens OPEC. Uh it's actually I've been looking at it more from a uh from a metals point of view.

[00:13:48]And that that point of view is that the uh the the UAE leaving leaving OPEC means that there's going to be more oil trading in yuan.

[00:13:58]And if there's more oil trading in yuan, then there's more gold being bought.

[00:14:01]Now, from the oil side, it it should mean higher pumping. There's two reasons for more pumping to come out of that.

[00:14:09]The first one is UAE can now pump more.

[00:14:11]They're not restrained by OPEC. The second is everyone who stays in OPEC now goes to the Saudis and says,"I want to pump more." So, everyone uses it as a negotiating tool uh to pump more oil.

[00:14:23]And so, there should be more oil getting pumped. And the thing is, you can't pump more oil if it can't get out of the straight. It doesn't really matter what's going on. So, >> uh if if if Iran capitulates, >> let's pretend Iran capitulated tomorrow.

[00:14:37]And they and they could. They could capitulate tomorrow. Let's pretend that they did. Would that make things go back to normal? No, it it wouldn't. It wouldn't. It would take 30 to 60 days to get oil up and running again uh the way they want it to get done. And so so I I don't think this is over by a long shot.

[00:14:55]Uh I think UAE dropping out of OPEC is bearish for oil in the long run, but the long run is we're talking about a year from now. I'm not talking about two months from now. And I think the uh uh the Middle East is in the process of having a divorce. uh from itself. So the UAE, the Saudis, the Iranians are all trying out and rebuilding new supply chains. It's almost like this war was staged. So they have a pretense to uh to rebuild everything.

[00:15:26]Yeah, I think that's an interesting thread to pull on because like you said the like that is a domino in kind of the path to end of OPEC, but what are your kind of thoughts on where this leads longer term as far as kind of reshuffling the cards so to speak as far as okay, here's where Iran fits, here's where the Saudis fit. Like seems like there's going to be a lot of moving pieces in the Middle East as far as kind of the geopolitical um chessboard side of it. But what what are your kind of thoughts on how this all shakes out?

[00:15:56]>> Yeah, I mean the uh the the UAE the the Shia Sunni uh uh difficulties I I don't I let me just start by saying I don't understand and I'm not an expert.

[00:16:11]So what I don't understand is I don't understand why Iran would be so comfortable bombing uh uh Sunni uh cities even though they're going after American bases. I get that. But I don't understand why they could be so comfortable doing that uh and think that things are going to be okay afterwards.

[00:16:28]So to your point, the whole region is going to be reconfigured geopolitically uh when this is over. The thing that I'm focusing on which is maybe I should be focusing more on the Middle East itself is that the supply chains are re rerouting. Uh the Saudis are going to be using a pipeline more and more. Uh the straight is going to become less less it by necessity it'll become less relevant.

[00:16:50]And I think US oil is going to become uh more and more relevant as a factor in pricing global oil. So uh I think and it makes us more of an exporting country.

[00:17:02]Uh it weakens OPEC. Uh it and and and you know like the like the joke goes in that movie Syriana. not a joke, but there was a there was a there was a line in that movie that Seriana with with Matt Damon in it where he says to the prince, he says, "Look, I think I think in 50 years you'll be chopping each other's heads off again, you know, if the oil runs out." So, it's the same idea. As the price of oil goes down, there's going to be more unrest. As the price of oil goes down, people will get unhappy over there, and the Saudis will be the most unhappy. Uh but they'll also be the ones who are able to uh withstand the weakening of OPEC because the new OPEC will probably be the Saudis, Russia, and the US when it's over.

[00:17:44]That's probably what it's going to be.

[00:17:45]>> Yeah, it's it is interesting to kind of look at the countries that are going to benefit from some of these changes and some of the different things that happen as you start to rewire some of these different global trade flows. But where does all this kind of leave China in your opinion as far as the access to energy? Right. Right. I know they've been um doing some different things as far as export controls and all this other stuff as far as like where does this kind of leave the energy situation in China as far as kind of their great power competition that's obviously been going on now for some time. They're they're um they're in a a you a unique position that they they get they're getting paid to watch, you know, um they're getting the oil out uh of of of the straight and uh they're I don't know if they're benefiting in terms of price, but they are getting their oil. They saw this coming because they stacked up ahead of time. I think uh I think the pressure the pressure I think it would be nice to see where China comes down.

[00:18:47]Will China How about this? China is happy as long as they're getting their oil. They don't care. They don't want Iran to have a nuclear bomb. They don't want They don't want it either. Uh uh but they're not going to protest it, but they're not going to say they're not defending Iran either. So, they're just sitting there and benefiting from both sides of the table. Uh I don't know what's going to happen. Uh, but I'd say over the next 6 months, over the next 6 months, the US and China will probably have either a major escalation uh or a deescalation, which is that's actually that's actually pretty much a copout answer. How about this? Uh, by by by June 1st, I think we're going to have some resolution between the US and China. And if we have resolution between the US and China, then you'll get movement on Iran. So in the meantime, I think China is using Iran as a negotiating tool with the US.

[00:19:46]So that's not really much help, but that's that's where that's where it is right now. There's more information has to come out and China is pretty pretty good at playing their cards close to the vest. Even whether they have more cards or not, who knows? But yeah, they have >> Well, well, I guess it sounds like your opinion is that we're not going to see the status quo kind of continue as far as USChina relations, how it relates to the Middle East. Right.

[00:20:09]>> Right. Right. Exactly. I think I think China's been a a beneficiary of the Middle East chaos uh and not having to put any any chips in in in the pot uh to stabilize it. And I don't think they're going to uh I think that's they they like to watch like the Peter Sers movie. uh being there if you're not familiar with it. Anyway, uh China is uh going to have to uh uh be brought in as a white knight uh to get Iran to do something. And if they do that, it'll be probably at at the cost of something with the US. So, yeah, I I I think I think China China's got to China's got to worry. That's their backyard, you know? That's their that's their backyard. Iran is their backyard. and and and uh that would be like us having to destabilize Canada. So uh China seems to be uh seems to be uh uh patient uh and they seem to be confident in their position. So I would just take them at their word that they're confident.

[00:21:10]They're waiting and I would wait for something to happen between now and June 1st when uh when the US has a conversation with China again.

[00:21:20]Yeah, it's uh it's hard to see how all this stuff plays out, but it seems obvious that the only thing I can be 100% certain of is that Trump and his basically backers are injecting chaos into the system on purpose. And there's a lot of uh reshuffleling going on right now. But one of the things that is I I think the odd man out in all this is Europe and what's going on there I think is very interesting is some of the like you see some of these political developments, you see different things going on there. I think they're in very dire straits. So, how do you think this all plays out in Europe?

[00:21:53]>> Europe is uh I mean it it's almost people like you and me will talk about this and we'll and we'll point it out and no one else is really paying attention to it, but but Europe is a mess. I mean, you know, if if uh if uh how about this? I I'll flip it a little bit on you. Not not that I don't think Europe's a mess, but Europe is a mess.

[00:22:13]They have to raise their they have to raise their spending to 6% of GDP to protect themselves. They have a war that's been going on forever. Uh their their automotive industry has been decimated uh by Chinese advantages and they're fragmenting and throughout that whole episode the dollar can't get out of its way.

[00:22:36]Like I'm expect I what I'm saying is Europe is a mess. Why isn't the euro lower? That's what I can't figure out.

[00:22:44]So, um I I think I mean I guess I guess I was going off on a tangent when I say it that way, but I think uh I think Europe Europe is the the obviously the odd man out. Europe has to depend on the US for LG. It has to Europe Europe has been squeezed by uh the US and by Russia and China almost at the same time. So I think uh I think Europe is in a lot of trouble. to to echo uh Tom Nongo. I think I think Europe is still clinging to its WF mentality. And uh look, I'll put some numbers on it. Here's a couple numbers that that that that are impressive. I think not they're not not my numbers, but they're impressive. The US has 5% of the world's population, 25% of GDP, and 50% of the global military.

[00:23:41]Now, let's look at Europe. Europe has 7% of the world's population.

[00:23:46]50% of the welfare state.

[00:23:50]50% of the welfare state. and uh 12% of the world's military. So, they need to increase their military spending and decrease their social safety net at a time when they have all these immigrants coming in. So, no, Europe is Europe is, you know, Europe's [ __ ] I don't know how it's going to be unfucked, but right now it's [ __ ] And so, so that's that's where I I mean, think about that. That Europe Europe has, forget about the military aspect of it. Europe has uh I think it's 7%. Did I say 12% or 7%.

[00:24:28]>> I think you said 7% of GDP, 50% of uh welfare and then 12 on the military.

[00:24:35]>> Okay. Yeah. So, so 7% of No, I'm sorry.

[00:24:38]They have 7% of the world's population.

[00:24:40]They actually >> population. That's what it was.

[00:24:41]>> 7% of the world's population and uh their their welfare spending is 50% of the world's welfare spending.

[00:24:52]So, I mean, that's that's basically so basically if if if they're 7% of the world's population and they're spending 50% of the world's welfare and they don't have a military, then they're [ __ ] I mean, I don't know how else to say it. So, that's that's [ __ ] I mean, they have to raise their GDP. And this is all because of us pulling out of NATO. I mean, we're not out of NATO. We're just we're just not giving them a free ride. We the US for the last 50 years again I'm echoing Tom Lewango here not echoing him but I'm I'm I'm bolstering his argument the US for the last 10 years 20 years 30 years has been giving $350 billion a year uh to Europe to defend it. Now I'm not saying that I'm not saying that that they're bad because they took that deal. I would take that deal. that's the right deal to take, right? Well, what they've been doing is they've been taking that $350 billion and they've been spending it on welfare and now they can't do that anymore. So, Europe is [ __ ] I I don't I don't see how they're going to not be uh in that situation. I'm cursing a lot today, but because I think it's I think it's appropriate. I don't really think there's anything else that they can do.

[00:26:11]I mean, and and and I see that in their in their behavior trying to talk the dollar down as well. I see their bankers are talking the dollar down as well. So anyway, that's it. That's my that's my take on Europe.

[00:26:23]>> Yeah, it is uh it is interesting to see to your point on the dollar and um where that goes long term versus the euro.

[00:26:31]Like I've kind of had the kind of long-term view of by 2030 the EU is going to be basically completely fragmented, breaking apart, right? That is a complete disaster for the euro. And to your point on NATO, right? If you have the US playing on NATO, then that leaves effectively a internal mess as far as who's going to start squabbling with who. So, I think you kind of line all these things up. Um, it doesn't look like a pretty situation, especially when you have like the different uh immigration problems they have as well, just to add on top of it, >> right? I mean, I mean, you and I are calling it problems, but they wanted it.

[00:27:07]They asked for it. I I don't know what they're what they're thinking, but >> yeah, they have to retool their whole economy to uh uh to have a smaller social safety net >> and uh meanwhile their population is growing by by millions. So, I don't know what to say except that uh uh it would suck to be them right now.

[00:27:28]>> Yeah, >> that's what I that's >> I think that's uh definitely the case.

[00:27:31]It'll be interesting to see if they can kind of warm their way out of the situation. But it's uh going to take some significant changes I think on their approach to things. But as far as kind of looking at the rest of the world and other places that are um kind of interesting to take a look at, I think it'd be interesting to look and get your thoughts on South America and what's going on there cuz seems like the I mean people call it the Donro doctrine or whatever it is, but seems like the US approach is now, hey, we're going to focus on areas closer to home and that's stuff you see in Venezuela, different investments you see in other parts of South America. But what were your kind of thoughts on how um South South America factors into Contra's plan for the next several years?

[00:28:14]>> Well, I mean that's that's a pretty broad question. Um um I I think I think I think the the the Monroe Doctrine being reasserted is uh uh the the lynch pin for everything that's going on. And in doing that, uh, I think what the United States is trying to do is United States is trying to, this is all part of the whole chaos Americana that you and I have talked about that the Western Hemisphere has to be remain safer than the rest of the world. And if that means the rest of the world has to be a little bit more messed up, then fine, then we'll do that too.

[00:28:45]But the Western Hemisphere has to be uh uh off limits to everyone. And and an example of that would be China. You know, China's influence in Latin America and South America has grown uh uh in uh massively over the last 20 years from from oil to influencing trade to building hubs. The Panama Canal will be an example, right?

[00:29:09]>> Yeah. And ports in Peru and other things like that. Like they have a lot of logistics and other things that have been uh built up over last decade or two, >> right? Exactly. Exactly. So, so meanwhile, uh, the, you know, the the the Bel and Road Initiative, uh, which is what they're trying to get Latin America to be a part of, and I'm I'm going to stay with Panama because that's the one that I know here, is that, you know, the the US, you know, the US, you know, Trump threatened, whether you want to believe him or not, to take the Panama Canal back, but he didn't do that. But the thing is, even though he didn't do that, or he didn't try to do that, and thank goodness he didn't, um, China's out. like China's out of Panama now. And that's and that's and that's what we're doing. We're methodically removing Chinese influence from Latin America because Latin America is going to be our Africa for our natural resources. And that's that's how I look at it. So nations are going to, you know, Venezuela is going to be our refinery uh because they have a lot of heavy crude there and a lot of the a lot of the heavier crude is is is better for refining. Uh lithium is going to come from Argentina. Argentina's got a lot of lithium. I think on the uh on the border with Colombia.

[00:30:18]Um >> or Chile.

[00:30:20]>> Chile, right? Exactly. Chile. Um Mexico.

[00:30:26]I mean, we stirred up the [ __ ] in Mexico with the with the cartels. That's all part of a wakeup call for everyone to get their their their their uh I mean, we're not going to we're not a nexing Greenland.

[00:30:37]We're not going to add a 51st state in Canada, but these are all things to get people uh motivated. I mean, one one thing, how about this?

[00:30:46]I believe over the last 10 years or it's it's easier to see starting with co that the world is in the middle of a reset. We're in the reset now >> and that the previous president Biden couldn't get anything done. Now, whether you like Trump or hate Trump, it doesn't matter to me.

[00:31:07]>> Europe is now building its own army.

[00:31:10]Europe is now going to have to cut its own costs. Europe has to spend its own money now. So he's gotten Europe to move with his personality and his insanity.

[00:31:22]Latin America, we've deposed a dictator in Venezuela like overnight. We did it overnight, right? So So I think Trump is just the latest person uh uh in in in the in the big reset who's actually getting stuff done. who comes after Trump, I don't know. But they're still going to try and get stuff done. The question is, will they get stuff done the way he's doing it or will they do it a different way? Because Biden was trying to do that, too. Biden was build back America, build back better. That was Biden, right? How different is that than making America great again? Well, both were both were about making manufacturing great again. And, you know, both have failed miserably so far.

[00:32:02]But other things have happened geopolitically. You know, the hornets nests have been stirred up in the Middle East. Wherever there's a B, wherever there's a letter in the bricks, B R I CS, there's a war now, except for Except for China, right? So, you got you got B, Brazil, right? We're stirring up the [ __ ] in Brazil and and and Venezuela was an example of that. So, in invading Venezuela or or whatever you want to call that, a coup in Venezuela or a deposing in Venezuela, that's that's a shot across the bout to Brazil. That's your B. Are Russia. The Russia Ukraine war, that's a war. I uh Iran. Well, there you go. I mean, I is probably supposed to stand for India, but let's just say it stands for Iran now because that's where there's a war. Uh and and let's not forget the Israel uh Hamas war, the Israel uh Gaza war that's still going.

[00:32:50]>> Yeah. And Lebanon now too, >> right? And Lebanon as well. Exactly. And the only And then you got to see that's China now. There's nothing going on in China yet, but rest assured when those other wars are done, we'll be talking about Taiwan. Taiwan will be next, you know, but Trump's not in a strong position with with China yet. And then the S in bricks is South Africa, which I don't think anybody's worried about. Uh we could we could uh we go down there on on on on uh on uh >> on humanitarian reasons and uh and win that area over. So So I think geopolitically what we're we're witnessing now is is not going to go away. It's just going to get worse and worse or or bigger and bigger. And it depends on who the president is or how it's prosecuted, how it's executed, but it is going to be executed. The west is going to be off limits uh to China. Uh the east is going to be uh uh having to fend for itself a little bit more and Europe is going to have to have its own military and that leaves the US uh in a very long long big island with its own natural resource. Uh so that's my Latin America spiel. Yeah, it is uh it is interesting to see kind of the kind of global picture on all this stuff because when you look at it as kind of different fronts of different wars, economic wars, different uh different events are going on geopolitically. One of the guys I like to listen to every once in a while is Michael Yan and he always says wars expand and wars expand unpredictably, right? And so that's where as you look ahead in the next couple years when it's not Trump in the driver's seat or whoever's behind Trump in the driver's seat, then you kind of get to a point where it's like, okay, some of these things are probably going to be bigger, not smaller by then. And where does that leave the US over the next couple years?

[00:34:34]But I I'd be interested to get your thoughts on where all that stuff leads politically and right we can talk about the midterms or talk about different changes there. But what are your kind of thoughts on how the US handles some of the transition that's going to be coming over the next couple years?

[00:34:48]>> Oh geez, that's that's way over my pay grade. I can't I can't answer that except to say that um that um that the midterms matter for Trump. Everyone knows that. Uh, and if if they if they midterms matter for Trump, but he's a lame duck after that. I I I think if I'm hearing your question right, it's like, you know, how does the US prepare for the next president? Dude, I have no idea. That's an unfair question. You can't you can't lay that on me. Except to say this. Except to say this. Let's pretend I'm in negotiation with the US, >> right?

[00:35:20]>> Whoever is the president is, I'm going to renegotiate the whole deal. any deal Trump is making now is done. When a new person comes in, I'm going to renegotiate it. So, that's uh that's all I can offer in that in that area. Sounds like you know more about it than me.

[00:35:34]>> Well, I could rant on it, but I figured out just get your two cents because I mean that's uh that's that's kind of the whole point on the podcast is asking questions that are above our pay grade.

[00:35:43]So, >> but um >> well, all those questions you asked were above our pay grade and above my pay grade anyway, but I answered them anyway. What what are your what are your thoughts on on that on the political situation?

[00:35:54]>> I think Trump needs to focus more on what's going on here at home and less on some of the foreign affairs, what's going on in different parts of the world because if he doesn't like basically get people um back on board with the agenda and working on some of these different problems, then it's going to be hard to convince people that turned out for him to turn out for the midterms, right? and they are doing stuff with redistricting and that I mean looks good as far as a number standpoint for Congress, but it's not like Congress does anything anyway, even if it is Republican. So that that's where I kind of get into a point where you kind of wonder how long the actual system can hold up and kind of keep its legitimacy when you have right all these problems where like there are so many different problems in the US like culturally economically right between generations where if they don't get fixed like none of this is going to matter right we can redraw lines on the map and right have the kind of geopolitical chessboard and make moves there. But right, if the US starts to collapse or doesn't solve the immigration and deportation side of things, like it's all for not.

[00:37:05]>> Well, all for not for the Republicans, you mean?

[00:37:08]>> Well, for the country long term, right?

[00:37:10]If you look at some of the >> I mean, I think we need to focus primarily on deporting like anywhere from 100 to 150 million people. And you look at what that would what that would do for the economy. It's like, yeah, GDP would go down, but GDP per capita would explode, right? real estate prices will be affordable, the economy and like young people would be able to have effectively the American dream that has been priced out for a lot of people my age and younger. And I think you'd see people be a lot more optimistic about, hey, we can actually have a functioning city in California or Washington or Oregon or some of these places where it's just like seems like people that are intentionally trying to destroy some of these places are in power.

[00:37:53]>> Yeah. I mean, I I could see that in California. California is definitely an example of that. Uh, in general, I don't know that I I I agree or disagree with with with with the assessment because I think if you if we were to throw 150 million people out or whatever, 15 million people out, uh, you'd also drive up inflation. So, I I think we're stuck. I think I think How about this? I think Trump here here's an answer to your question.

[00:38:22]I don't think Trump is going to try and move these people out. I don't think Trump cares. I don't think any of that is going to change. I think they're here to stay and they're here to stay to keep to keep to keep labor costs down even if it drives other things up. So, um uh I I I I view it as one party. I really do. I mean, I >> I look at it like like we had we had we had the left >> did a takeover of the whole government over the last eight years. They just did a takeover. They weren't happy with Hollywood. That wasn't enough. They weren't happy with the mainstream media.

[00:38:58]That wasn't enough. They weren't happy with the FBI. you know, they they're they're more left-leaning the FBI, but but um bureaucratically uh the the left it's almost like they saw the end coming and they just started to invade every part of the culture, whether it be, >> you know, like like co was a perfect opportunity for the Frankfurt School of Marxism uh to step in and now I think we're just starting on the right to push back. So, I don't think uh I I I don't think I don't know who comes after Trump, whether it's Vance or Rubio or someone like that. Even if they win, I don't I don't think the left has someone to re to to go up against us. I'm putting myself in that category. But but um uh I think I think the the right is trying to take back the institutions uh that that the that the left has controlled over the last eight years because those institutions matter. Uh but do I think it'll actually improve the country the way that you want it to, the way that you envision it to? No, I don't. So I'm very very cynical on that stuff.

[00:40:05]>> I just think it's going to keep I'm just like, you know, where are the stops in the market? That's what I'm looking at right now.

[00:40:11]>> Yeah. Well, I'm right there with you as far as being cynical on some of these things, but I think it's um it's somewhere you look ahead over the next 5, 10, 20 years and you do kind of wonder how long the kind of current bureaucracy in all these different places can last, right? And to your point on the other side having candidates like I think right people throw out Nsome and like the biggest problem that he has is like your entire party is basically built on hating white men and you're going to pick Newsome.

[00:40:39]Like that's not going to work for the Democrats, >> right? And you look at the rest of their bench, it's like you're not going to run Kamla again and you're not gonna run Hillary Clinton and so who does that leave? Like >> it's a mess, right? And >> it is it is I I think it's the rights I think it's the rights chance to uh to bring things back kind of like they did in the 90s with uh oh I forget his name new Gingrich or whatever his name was.

[00:41:05]So uh uh I I think I think the left and the right are are in are in dem Dems in disarray is what they used to say. Dems in disarray. But the Republicans aren't much better. But >> yeah, >> I think it doesn't m I mean I'm really I'm almost anarchistic in this way. I really think that it doesn't matter who the president is. This is the path we're on now and it's finally getting executed. Biden had a chance to do it.

[00:41:31]He [ __ ] it up. Before him was Trump the first time. He didn't get it done right before Trump was Obama. Obama was was also trying to uh change the world map as well. He didn't get it done. This Trump is getting it done. And I think now that we're on this path, it's not going to go back, but it's going to cost us a lot more money going forward because when Trump's out of office, whoever whoever comes in after him, every one of those deals that Trump says he's making will have to get renegotiated. So, >> yeah, >> I don't know. But the midterms, >> the midterms, um, >> you know, it's funny because, you know, we've been talking, we I mean, collectively, the the the political sphere has been talking about the midterms, and I don't claim to know much about it, but I don't see much changing even if the midterms are won by the Democrats because if if the midterms are won by the Democrats, what are they going to do? They're just going to [ __ ] block uh what the right does. And so >> well maybe impeachment, >> right? And we and we will deteriorate to your point. We you know the the US social fabric will deteriorate even more. Uh but uh that's for a conversation with Joe Olman.

[00:42:44]>> Yeah. No, it'll be uh I mean that we could go on for another hour, I'm sure, on that topic alone, but I think it is interesting to kind of see where all this stuff is leading. And I think it's kind of setting itself up to right people call it like the decline of America end of like it's all going to hell in a hand basket and other people are kind of saying well this is probably the birth of an empire or right some more autocratic system something closer to I think monarchy is coming but how long that takes I have no idea but I think it's um >> basically a direct response to the current system. I don't know if I agree with the word monarchy itself, but I do agree with everything you're saying there that uh the west in general is moving towards a more authoritarian brand of government and the US is doing that as well. The presidency is the imperial presidency or however you want to call it the uh the uh the executive power. I forget what the expression is, but it seems like that if if you were to look back over the last say 20 years, the US and the West have been trying to get China to go dem democratic a democracy. Uh so China uh embraced capitalism whether they admit it or not.

[00:43:58]China embraced capitalism uh but never went democratic. Tanaman Square was the end of that.

[00:44:04]Meanwhile, in the west, so if you look at it like this way, governmentally, China is authoritarian and economically now they're capitalist.

[00:44:14]In the west, governmentally were democratic uh democratic constitutional republicans >> and and capitalist. Right now, we're moving socialist and authoritarian while they're moving capitalist and authoritarian. So, we're moving towards uh uh uh I mean I don't I don't know if you mean literally a monarchy, but I do think I do think we are running like a monarchy now. We are going to that's that's going to be that's going to be but we do have we we do have the institutions in place to keep a check on that. I just don't know that. How about this way? We'll probably see some monarchies re reassert themselves over in Europe.

[00:44:52]>> Yeah. Well, I think I think it might not be a monarchy a name where it's hereditary and you have one guy who I mean people look at history and I I don't think they really understand how much of a anomaly this last like 100red-year period is as far as governments and cultures and some of the other stuff going on. But um I think it's just a more natural form of government to have like a like obvious hierarchy and whether that means you have a king at the top and baronss and like nobles like that like >> I think it's kind of the antidote to this current system we have of oligarchy and I mean complete uh complete overrun of some of the important like cultural pieces you know >> constitutional constitutional monarchy.

[00:45:38]Yeah, >> sounds very very much like uh >> uh Hegel >> uh back in the in the in the in the philosophy classes where Hegel was like uh a monarchy is better than a democracy and you know I understand what the the point of the point of it is you can't get anything done if you're in a democracy especially people are running around like if you look look looking using California as an example if you get a referendum on everything you can't get anything done.

[00:46:03]>> Yeah.

[00:46:03]>> And and and the bureaucracy overruns everything. So the bureaucracy uh is in is in control right now. If at least if you had a monarch, it's what's the the the question of the Batman. If you have a Caesar or someone who's in control, who takes control, let him be in control for four years or so and let's see what he can get done. Maybe that's what we're doing now. Who knows?

[00:46:23]>> Yeah, I think it might take 10, but that's uh we'll see where it goes. I think a lot of this stuff, it goes back to having like very short-term focus from the kind of political side of things and the 2-year re-election cycle and all this stuff where I think if you incentivize people to have 10 or 50 or 100year time frames, a lot of these problems we're seeing now wouldn't have been able to crop up in the first place.

[00:46:44]But I mean, when when the priorities get reelected and get uh campaign contributions and donors, like that's kind.

[00:46:53]>> That's right. I agree. There you have it. Yeah. Well, now that we have uh solved all the world's problems, are there uh any other things that are top of mind as we're starting to wrap up here or um >> No, no, I think we've covered a lot.

[00:47:04]We've covered a lot >> covered the whole world. It's a shame.

[00:47:08]It's a shame I don't know what I'm talking about, but uh but >> No, I think I think you're uh sharper than you may let on on a lot of these topics, but I appreciate you coming on and uh shooting the breeze on some of these different things. But I think it'll be interesting to watch too how markets kind of react to some of these changes that are going to happen on a big picture scale because there are so many different things that have happened with the hyper financialization piece of things where I I have no idea where all this stuff leads. Like do we just have the S&P going vertical forever and ever?

[00:47:38]Do we have gold reacting? like what are I guess that that's maybe the perfect place to wrap up is what what are your kind of thoughts on how the markets react and like work with some of these changes that I think are coming over the next several years.

[00:47:53]>> Well, I mean your comment I'll just stay with the markets that you described. I think the stock market continues to go vertical until it crashes and then it goes vertical again. Uh and I I think that uh we're in for a lot bigger inflationary situation than we admit and and the stock market is eating up some of that inflation.

[00:48:13]Gold uh you know, I I'll throw a number out there. I don't think 8,000 gold is is a problem to have. I think there's I think we're in the middle of a reset. I think it's happening orderly. I think uh gold is going to become the new dollar uh in terms of in terms of a global store value. Glo gold is a new treasury and uh I think the bond market's going to go to [ __ ] How's that?

[00:48:37]>> That's pretty much it.

[00:48:38]>> That's kind of the capital cycle we're in, right? It's going to be inflation.

[00:48:42]It's going to be a lot of uh a lot basically bond holders holding a bag and getting inflated to uh inflated to death over the next several years. And >> that's right.

[00:48:51]>> Right. It's right. People can talk about CPI being at 2%, but that's just not the case as far as what the real numbers are. I mean, we basically have Soviet era stats on that and unemployment and all these other things. I mean, I I don't I I don't pay attention to any of that stuff anymore.

[00:49:05]>> No, I think I think I think you know uh in terms of market man, how about this?

[00:49:10]My only really big picture uh indicator is uh if the 30-year bond gets to 5% yield, then I think all bets are off.

[00:49:20]Meaning >> that's when it gets disorderly. That's when that's when the government starts to say, uh, we got to use do yield curve control. We've got to print dollars much faster. So, a yield curve with the 30-year at 5%. While we're lowering rates on the front end means yield curve control means more dollars be printed and you have an even steeper yield curve and stocks will be rescued, but the bond market will not be. And that's that's why you have to own gold and silver it looks like today.

[00:49:49]>> Yeah. No, I think it's uh going to be people a lot of people are going to start to hide out in stuff that can't be printed and companies that produce it.

[00:49:56]But if uh listeners are looking to find you or find your work, where can they look for you?

[00:50:01]>> Sure. Um uh I have a Substack, Goldfix Substack. It's in the top uh uh 50 uh uh allegedly this week. Um anyway uh it's VBL goldfix uh on Substack and we talk about these sort of topics geopolitics uh metals primarily metals geopolitics uh and macroeconomic uh topics. Uh happy to have you on there and if you're if you want to subscribe or you want to come in for free. Um and uh I have a book coming out hopefully in the next in the next month. So when I when I have that out I'll come back and we'll talk about it if you want. Yeah, absolutely. Would love to uh hear about that and kind of hopefully get you a couple book sales while you're at it. But before I let you go, I do want to slide in my uh traditional closing question, which is what book should I add to my reading list?

[00:50:53]>> That's funny. We paused so I could go get the book. I'm reading Andrew Jackson uh by HW Brands.

[00:50:59]>> Okay.

[00:51:00]>> And I'm reading this book because uh I look at Trump as a populist and I look at Trump as doing a lot of crazy things. But the more I read about Andrew Jackson, the more I read that he was just an absolute lunatic. And uh and and so I want to read Andrew Jackson to put Trump in context of what crazy really can be. And uh so far it's been interesting, you know. So that's what I'm reading. Andrew Jackson by HW Brands. I'm reading a biography.

[00:51:31]>> Yeah, it's uh interesting. We hear some stories on what uh what was happening in politics 150 years ago. I think people um would not expect some of the stuff to happen in the US that had I mean been going on for a long time, but maybe we're heading back in that direction.

[00:51:45]So, we'll have to see.

[00:51:46]>> We're definitely going backwards. We're definitely going backwards.

[00:51:50]>> Yeah, I think >> well I think uh like I'm pretty optimistic long term, but short to medium term it's going to be I think a mess. But I think on that uh optimistic and cheery note, I think we'll have to wrap up. But I really appreciate you coming on. I think people will enjoy our conversation. So, I think with that we'll be wrapping up.