Stormy Pattern Looming

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]All right, you guys. Severe weather season is about to get busy. We're talking extended period of stormy weather ramping up this weekend and potentially continuing into June. That means a risk of tornadoes, Wow. large damaging hail, and destructive straight-line winds.

[00:00:21]We've had a relatively quiet start to the month other than some severe weather and tornadoes in Mississippi. May really has been shockingly quiet thus far, which is weird considering this is historically the peak of severe weather and tornado season. But, severe weather's about to return to the plains.

[00:00:36]Thursday is just the appetizer, Friday, too. But, then look at Saturday, Sunday, and this crescendo on Monday, a really big area. So, why this big change in the atmosphere? Well, let's start off by taking a look at month-to-date data.

[00:00:49]This looks a little bit complex, but let's focus on this chart right here.

[00:00:53]Basically, we've had a stagnant upper-level low. It spins counterclockwise, so we see dry northwesterly flow over the central US.

[00:01:01]This is kind of a lousy chart, but you can see that anomalous northwesterly flow. So, we've been super dry across the plains, the Midwest. Less moisture, fewer storms, and we've been much cooler than average. No surprise, we're pretty far behind temperature-wise, and that's meant fewer storms. Now, we have a couple lower-end severe weather days coming up, and then things get more active. Like Thursday, for example, few hail-producing supercells in Kansas.

[00:01:26]Moisture is rather meager, but storms will form ahead of a bulging dry line as drier air impinges on humidity. Uh that said, Thursday could be a little stormier than expected. Might overachieve a little bit compared to initial expectations. Hail still the main concern, but I was chatting with my friend Andrew Shearer about Thursday's setup. Morning, cuz it looked like the 700 wave was actually moving through too early.

[00:01:49]And now looks like it's moving through at a better time. He's referring to this approaching upper air wave, which will pass overhead at afternoon peak heating, and basically induce a scent or kind of lift the air and touch off some robust storms producing hail up to about maybe golf ball lime size. So, Salina, Topeka, Emporia, Wichita, the turnpike, keep an eye out. Friday looks interesting, too.

[00:02:12]Similar environment, a little bit richer moisture, and we have a cold front stalling just west of Kansas City, probably touching off a few additional hail-producing supercells. Once again, golf balls, lime size hail possible.

[00:02:24]Given a bit of a cap, we're not sure quite how widespread severe weather will be. But then this weekend looks much more robust. We got a big pattern reversal with now clockwise spinning high pressure in the eastern US pumping moisture northwards. It's been missing for a while, and this moisture sticks around for pretty long time. And we now have low pressure in the west. This approaching jet stream dip filled with cold air the upper levels that builds in across the Rockies. And look, all this thunderstorm fuel across the central US thanks to our building moisture. At the surface Saturday into Sunday, we'll have a cold front dry line combination sneaking in from the west. So, in the yellow zone, I do expect some supercells both days capable of all severe hazards including tornadoes. And then maybe each evening they merge into windy squalls and clusters. And this continues into Monday. We have a big area of humid air ahead of an elongated low pressure system pushing across the plains.

[00:03:19]Supercells are likely with a tornado threats. Monday, tons of instability thunderstorm fuel. So again, we're talking very robust thunderstorms, especially given how much wind energy we have upstairs with the jet stream just roaring overhead. Machine learning models are really highlighting Monday in particular as the busiest day across a wide swath of the plains and the Midwest. But then beyond that, we're kind of pushing a week and the crystal ball gets a little bit hazier. I do think the active stretch will continue.

[00:03:50]And that looks based off of guidance [music] and some of the long-range stuff, that's going to stay for quite some time. Uh I would expect it at least through the end of May, if not into the beginning, if not the middle of portions of June. Um because, on top of that, El Niño is getting very active, which means your subtropical jet is starting to pick up, and so you just get broad southwesterly flow across pretty much the entire climatological max of severe weather. So, above-average severe storminess is likely, perhaps not manifesting as like these big blockbuster widespread severe storm episodes, but maybe more regional events. Going to be perhaps not these big troughs, these big evident troughs that are showing up, at least as of now, but more of these subtle shortwaves that could lead to more regional outbreaks of severe very repeatedly over multiple days. We're expecting something called a split flow regime. Basically, the jet stream sort of splits or bifurcates into two different branches, both of which could trigger severe weather. So, the polar jet remains active over the northern plains into the Midwest, and you have the subtropical jet that's starting to dip uh and causing troughing over the southwestern United States, [music] and you get enhanced flow over the southern plains. And with all this moisture around and jet stream energy aloft, even small little triggers, weak little leftover breezes and boundaries might play a role in initiating severe weather, especially going into June. And to your point regarding these mesoscale setups and outflow boundaries, I mean, I think back [music] to Matador day, you and I chased it on April 24th, 2025.

[00:05:26]June 5th, 2025, Morton, Texas, high-end tornadoes there. We had, a couple years ago, Anson and Hawley, Texas, May 2nd, 2024, another outflow boundary day. So, subtleties that we can't forecast more than a day or two out can lead to high-end severe weather, as long as we have moisture. And fair to say that, given this regime change, we'll have plenty of moisture. So, buckle up.

[00:05:49]Severe weather season's been quiet lately, but it's not sleeping. This is just the calm before the storms.

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