Spring and summer weather patterns feature clustered storm systems that develop along boundaries, creating an 'all or nothing' rainfall scenario where some areas experience torrential downpours while others remain dry; forecast percentages (POPs) indicate the likelihood of precipitation across the forecast area rather than guaranteed rainfall at specific locations, and thunderstorms during this season typically produce heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds up to 30 mph without reaching severe weather criteria.
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48 WEATHER EXTRAAdded:
And so it has begun.
Chance for some storms in the forecast for the next couple of days and uh it goes all the way actually till like next week each and every day and we've already had the proverbial comments on Facebook, "Where's the rain?" Mostly going to fall this afternoon.
Um and uh there's a little rain already happening actually.
So, the way this pattern works this time of year the spring, late spring, summer.
You get You don't really get like a widespread like everybody gets rain at the same time. You get these like clusters of storms that build off what we call boundaries. And like you get a rush of air that comes down to the surface and it can actually create like more storms off that main line. And some areas will probably miss out completely today.
Other areas will have some torrential rainfall. And when the setup it's I think of it like all or nothing. It's like >> [sighs and gasps] >> to do a football reference. It's like you go for like like long pass after long pass, right?
>> [snorts] >> You're probably not going to connect on very many, but when you do connect, you score a touchdown, right? Think of it like that. If you connect on this rainfall, you score a touchdown with the rainfall, which is good. Unless you don't want the rain. Some people don't want it. Most of you do though. The general uh public reaction about the rainfall on the forecast has been very positive. Seems like everybody wants some rain, which is good.
Um rain not good for graduations, rain not good for outdoor activities. And in all seriousness, as we go into today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, anytime that you have a thunderstorm, will it reach severe criteria? Probably not.
But will it still pack a punch with heavy rainfall? Yep.
Will it have a lot of lightning with it?
Yep. And will there be gusty winds up to like 30 mph?
Yep. So therefore, if you are outdoors, you probably want to take cover. Not from like a tornado, but because there's a lot of lightning. If there's a lot of cloud to ground lightning with these storms, which there very well could be for the next couple of days, very summer-like pattern.
The storm doesn't even really need to be on top of your location. You can hear in the distance. If it's like you ever had Brad's little update come back lightning detected 2.5 miles away from my little your location. That would be the time you would think about maybe taking a little bit of cover or at least like don't go in the basement put the helmet on and stuff just go in the garage or just stay out of like open areas is the best thing to do.
Um lightning strikes right now zero on the counter. You can see the radar.
Um but there is some rain falling and what's happening is is most of the rain this morning has been just brushing far Northwest Alabama like like Western Lauderdale County so far. But what's happening right now speaking of those boundaries that little area of rain is starting to get a little tail to it and developing now through parts of Limestone County uh not Athens. So if you're watching this right now currently with me, you don't have rain in Athens yet. Um but what happens is is this whole area starts to fill in. Like it's like it's like dominoes. Once we start popping a few of these storms, we pop a whole bunch. Think of it like popcorn.
Boom and then all of a sudden you have a big bag of popcorn, right? So that's what we're watching this afternoon. So the radar's not impressive right now, but from a meteorology side of things starting to see things now pop a bit to the north. I think if there's going to be any severe weather even remotely close to our area, it would be for middle Tennessee, but that even looks like it's more north and it looks like it's more of a Nashville event today. So we're just going to watch this radar fill in throughout the afternoon.
Heavy rainfall possible during the evening commute. Little first alert update for you, okay? Um the storms will probably back off a bit about 7:00 8:00 and there'll be this little lull in the action and then after midnight there'll be another surge of some storms that come in overnight. Those will probably maybe uh keep you awake. Any thunder, lightning, anytime you have those overnight storms.
Um if you have a dog that doesn't like thunder, it could be a long night for you. Um and that could produce some heavy rainfall. But once again, this is not like widespread severe weather, but still impactful with storms. So, there's your first little push of rain right now. Zoom it out. A lot of you, um look at the radar, and that's great. Um you watched Eric Burke this morning talk about how there was some rain in Mississippi.
Though part of that is clipping our area right now, what you want to do on the radar, if you're watching and if you download the WAFF 48 app, it's an awesome app, you look at it, watch for the development down by the 65 today.
So, Birmingham area, southwest. That's where a lot of the storms are going to come from. Not so much from the cluster of Mississippi. Eventually, they're all going to kind of come together and be one. But you're going to see like some areas It's already happening right now.
There's a little green blob near 65, right?
So, that area is going to see some development this afternoon. That's where our rain's really going to mainly come from. And we'll be watching that on the radar. So, in the meanwhile, temperatures have topped out around 80°.
Now, we've had back-to-back-to-back 90° days for parts of the area, and it's been a lot more humid. Last couple nights I was on the patio and it was the first time my adult beverage had sweat marks on it, um cuz it was so humid, right? Um we probably won't get 90 today. Why? Well, one, we don't have as much sunshine. Um two, if we start getting some thunderstorms, the rain will cool the air a bit. But until the rain gets here, even with cloud cover, we're still in the low to mid 80s.
And uh that's about probably where we'll stop today. And then, once we get some storms, if they time out the way they should, that will stop the warm-up, and then it will temperatures will come back down. In fact, if you have a storm, you'll be in the 70s all afternoon.
Um rainfall heavy at times, I talked about that. Trying to think of anything else I missed.
Um impact on the evening commute, check.
Um I haven't seen any graduations today.
Very important to have a radar where you can kind of keep an eye on things. I'm sorry, my little wire is behind my neck.
I'm not supposed to do that.
And then for tonight, I talked about the little lull in the action during the evening, like 8:00 to noon 8:00 to noon 8:00 to midnight. And then after midnight, it will ramp it back up again.
So, we kept a 60% chance of showers and storms overnight. Rainfall will be heavy at times and that will impact the morning commute tomorrow. So, this is not an actual radar. This is like what we call like a forecast model future radar. So, I pushed it out to 3:00.
Um development of storms will happen right around noon and then continue into the mid-afternoon, but at 3:00 there are clusters of storms everywhere. And you see to the east and then you see like, "Why I live in Moulton and I don't have a storm near me?"
I always tell people when you look at these forecast models, when you have a setup like this, don't take it like face value. Like, "Okay, that red is right on Albertville. I'm going to have a storm at 3:00." It doesn't quite work that way. But what I show you this graphic for is to show you that the possibility is there for these storms to pop. And notice how I showed you the radar moments ago. It was a little tiny little showers, right?
If you have showers, little tiny ones now. Look what at 3:00 the the forecast future radar is doing.
It's expanding it, right? Not everybody has a storm, but there's more coverage.
And that will continue through about 8:00 p.m. And then you'll see everything kind of back off a little bit. There's still a few little stragglers out there.
And you could still have a few little downpours, but the overall coverage shrinks and then after midnight, it ramps back up again, favoring areas along 65 and east, but I still think there'll be some showers to the west.
This will impact your commute tomorrow morning with some heavy rainfall. If you've driven in North Alabama, especially in the Huntsville area, even if it's not heavy rainfall, any rain slows down the morning commute and usually is a morning where if I'm doing traffic, I'm talking about extra drive time. I'm talking about accidents and slow downs and doesn't have to be severe weather to do that. That's going to impact the morning tomorrow. Then the scattered showers and storms will continue throughout Thursday afternoon.
Probably another solid push of rain coming in again Thursday night and we run it back Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. You're going to be so sick of hearing daily thunderstorm chances every day. Especially if you're that one town that misses out every single day.
And then we'll get the email and we'll be like, "You know, I have not had one drop of rain this entire time." And there's going to be that one location, I promise you that has that. And you're going to be like, "What rain?" And then there's going to be some other locations by Sunday are going to be like waving the white flag and being like, "Dude, this is ridiculous. I'm getting rain every day."
Now, I would like that at my house personally, but if it doesn't work out that way, I get it. I understand this weather thing.
So, your 10-day forecast, um it's like 70% 60% we call them pops, percentage of precipitation.
In this case, forms of showers and thunderstorms. And we just left it 60 or 70 because more areas will have rain than areas that stay dry through midweek next week.
So, like remember too, 70% chance doesn't mean 70 yes, 30 no. It's not how that that works. It means 70% of the forecast area will have some kind of thunderstorm activity. When you think about that, seven out of 10 locations getting some form of rainfall, kind of impressive.
So, we'll see how it goes.
Uh Beverly, what time will the storms reach the Shoals?
Uh probably an afternoon thing is what we got. So, there are a few little showers near you right now in the Shoals, but probably more of an afternoon type thing after like 1:00 2:00.
There'll be a the chance for showers and storms will continue through the evening.
And uh yeah, if you have outdoor plans this weekend, Memorial Day weekend, obviously um people last Sunday after I got done with the morning show were already very upset that it was going to rain for Memorial Day weekend.
I said, "Look, I said, 'It is a week away. Give it some time.'" So, Saturday, like just timing it all out, Beverly, you're welcome.
Um timing it all out, like it's still too early to do it, but Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon maybe a window of opportunity, and then Saturday night will be more rain. And then much of Sunday morning looks really wet. And even Sunday afternoon looks like it has a couple hours where where the storm is kind of move north and we're in between rounds. And then Monday looks really wet. So, you know, obviously a lot of that can change and the timing so hard to pinpoint with a setup like this, but just know that you have an opportunity for some kind of rain each and every day.
I already had somebody on my Facebook page go off and "You said it was going to rain at 4:00 in the morning." Well, I didn't say anything cuz I didn't work weather today.
>> [laughter] >> But, I can tell you this, all the posts that we have said the rain was going to be more towards the afternoon, and that's what we have.
That's what I had I actually wrote that in the post that the person commented on, which is just hilarious.
So, I think that a lot of people really want the rainfall at this point.
Um I know I do. I'm tired of running the sprinkler. I'm tired of um having dry ground. I could use some rain at my house for sure. I'm sure a lot of you feel that way. Others don't want the rain. They don't they have outdoor plans. Um somebody said, "I want the rain, but not Saturday night when I go to my concert at the Orion."
Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way.
So, um but we'll see how it plays out.
And if you are that one location that gets these storms each and every day, you could run up a pretty good total of rain by the time we get to Memorial Day.
Like forecast models spitting out anywhere between 2 and 4 in of rain, but um you got to remember there are some thunderstorms if um you get some of these localized downpours, especially this afternoon and then again Thursday and Friday, you have the opportunity where you could pick up a quick inch of rain.
And if you get one of those storms picks up an inch of rain, and we're thinking that you could have two to four by Monday depending on where they set up, I mean you're like 1/4 of the way there with one storm.
You know.
Whenever you have a setup like this, this happened I think August of 2023, we had that one morning I filled in for Eric Berg, and everybody thought I was crazy. Like I I think people thought that I was like like in another forecasting for another area, but areas in like Limestone County that morning got pummeled with rain.
Like it was like one storm that did not move and it was right over Harvest, um back towards like northeast Limestone, and it was it was really coming down.
And um yeah, I mean 7-8 in of rain fell that morning. There was flash flooding. We got video. People were going crazy in that area. They couldn't believe the rainfall and then everybody else was like, "Dude, it's not even raining. Stop."
I'm like, "No, it it's raining there."
You know, there's times when in the summertime I'll turn the Huntsville camera that we have, our weather camera, and I'll turn it sideways south towards the um looking like Parkway. It's not really truly south. It's more like southeast.
But nonetheless, I can see a shower and storm and it's raining, and the the roof is soaked, and then I turn the camera back to the north and it's sunny and beautiful, and I'm at the station and there's just sun and there's no rain.
And that's like a mile apart. So, and that can happen locally.
It happens a lot actually. So, like one neighborhood's like, "Oh, I didn't get any rain." Another neighborhood's like, "All right, I've had too much." So, but that's the pattern that we're in and that will probably continue to stay that way. But, yeah.
Uh Trash Pandas in action. First game back after 2 weeks last night. They'll be watching the radar closely tonight and Thursday and Friday and Saturday and Sunday.
And uh yeah, tough for that. Hopefully, they can get more games in than get rained out.
Problem with Trash Pandas and baseball is even if the storm's not directly out toward the field, but it has a lot of lightning and it's in the vicinity, they have to clear the field, so.
That can be a bit of a bummer.
All right, I got to go. TVL at 11:00.
Noon show at noon, go figure.
[clears throat] Uh Peyton will have the very latest at TVL at 11:00.
I will be on at noon with Gina Benitez.
I'll probably have the radar up a bit, tracking the radar, talk about more what's happening for the rest of the day, continue to provide updates for you for the holiday weekend. And uh yeah, we got to cover it. And again, if you're one of those locations you really want the rainfall, there's a chance, and you have a really good chance, too. Really high-end chance of rain from now until Memorial Day. And hopefully, if you're one of those locations that wants rain every day, you get what you want.
That'll be awesome.
All right, I'm going to wrap this up.
Talk soon. Bye.
>> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
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