Low-end severe risk added for Tuesday

Añadido: 2026-05-27

[00:00:17]Hey guys, I'm chief meteorologist Mark Weinberg. This is Bryce Jones. True story, we actually had decided we were going to start this video a little bit early. I decided to leave work a little bit early or leave home to come to work a little bit early and then >> and then 65.

[00:00:32]>> Yeah.

[00:00:32]>> You know, it's interesting here. People ask me sometimes, why do people have so much trouble driving in the snow? And I'm like, have you ever driven in the rain in this city?

[00:00:40]>> And people, I mean, it's it's it's crazy. I mean, it's bad enough in the sunshine, but I mean, then you get the 65 and 65 never drains well anyway. And then you get these semiis that just fly up. And you you've posted about it before. They fly up 65.

[00:00:54]>> Hit that puddle.

[00:00:55]>> And we know now we've got a jack knifed semi blocking two left lanes on 65 at Eastern Parkway. So that's what Mark got stuck in.

[00:01:02]>> But alas, >> he's here.

[00:01:04]>> We move on.

[00:01:04]>> We made it. Um, so what we're going to be talking about here is the Storms Prediction Center added a 2% tornado threat today. And I know what you're thinking is there was a 2% tornado threat on Friday. Ohio County had a touchdown and we did get a tornado warning within our area from that.

[00:01:19]>> And so lowend tornado threats are normally issued um because there is a chance.

[00:01:25]>> I would say if I'm analyzing this, I'm saying that the the lower level flow is a little weaker.

[00:01:31]>> Yeah. today because the surface low price is not as strong as it was on Friday and therefore I think it's maybe a little bit lower than a 2% but nonetheless I think they want to highlight the possibility.

[00:01:43]>> Yeah, I mean there is some turning in the atmosphere and in the data there's just not a ton. As Mark mentioned the surface winds when you start to turn um up with height there's just not a lot.

[00:01:52]There's a little bit and there's enough to where it's not impossible, which is why the Storm Prediction Center added that on there. This past Friday, that low rolled like right overhead, so it was easy to get some winds kicked up a little bit more. This time, the lows back over toward western Kentucky. So, we're a little bit further away from it.

[00:02:06]It's not as strong of a low as Mark mentioned. So, the gradient winds or the winds outside of thunderstorms aren't as strong, which is why you're going to step out and you're not going to feel that constant breeze out there today.

[00:02:15]Uh, but it's just it's a nonzero chance, which is why they've expanded it.

[00:02:19]>> And so, we thought that it was worth a video here. I've got only about eight minutes that I can do the video because I got stuck in traffic. So, um, what we want to do is remind you, number one, if you're joining us in here, first off, thank you. Um, what we'd ask you to do is share the video because I suspect if you're interested in whether there could be severe weather, your friends are probably interested. Your family is like, "Oh, I didn't even know there was a low-end tornado threat today. I'm interested in hearing about this as well." So, it makes sense to share the video. Let them jump in. Even after the video ends, they could just choose the timeline, go wherever they want. So, this is easy. And if you appreciate the videos, it's always a thumbs up. And you could always put an angry face on there if they traffic, too. So, this 2% tornado threat was introduced in the early release. And then it was expanded northward. So, this now includes basically the southern half of Louisville and a line from Hardinsburg to South Louisville through Frankfurt.

[00:03:10]Um, you can see this number is the lowest number on the map.

[00:03:12]>> Yeah. Um but the lowest number on the map also produced a tornado in Ohio County on Friday. And so I think that it is worth noting um that this situation can and does produce sometimes a tornado warning or two. Um so it is worth noting and I think the placement, >> you know, basically what they're following >> is the area where there's some fuel.

[00:03:35]>> But Bryce, I think that if we were both drawing this, we probably and you had to ask us on this point right now, where would we put this? We would probably highlight a little bit further south.

[00:03:45]>> Yeah.

[00:03:46]>> Which is where they originally had it in the first place. And then most recently they expanded it all the way up to South Louisville. And when you look at data, their drawing and their placement really follows right along with where the highest cape or the highest storm energy is, which don't get me wrong, you have to have that for some storm for storms in general, especially strong storms.

[00:04:05]But obviously there's a lot more um in the recipe book when it comes to what you need for tornadoes. You need that storm energy mark, but you also need the stronger turning with the winds and uh stronger wind shear anyway. And you have that a little bit more of that down in our southeastern counties.

[00:04:22]>> So, just a reminder here when we look at what can generate severe weather, we use this as the ingredient list. We'll kind of breeze through this just because we're a little time limited today.

[00:04:31]Warmth and high due points. Look, it's been we've had high due points for day.

[00:04:35]>> It was it was muggy yesterday even when it wasn't raining yesterday afternoon. I was outside at my in-laws and I was like, h I'm just I'm not ready for it yet. I'm not ready.

[00:04:43]>> And you know, the insanity of this is I I think probably three times in the last week I've had a small stream in my backyard.

[00:04:48]>> Yeah. It's just it's it's been a relentless pattern that we've been in.

[00:04:52]And I mean, we're on the fortunate side because we've avoided severe weather, which I mean, if we had if we had a lot of wind shear and a lot of these systems rolling through, it would have been a much different story. But it's just been wet. So we have high due points warmth a little bit um strong wind energy but it does change direction with height and that's something to watch and something of fire storms which ironically you can't get severe weather without severe thunderstorms without severe thunder without thunderstorms you can't have a severe thunderstorm >> you know when you look at this >> a couple things that we note that you alluded to Bryce it's 78 in Bowling Green it's 76 in Lichfield it's 75 in Lebanon now it is still pouring spring in Louisville.

[00:05:33]>> Yeah.

[00:05:33]>> And that really raises some legitimate questions. I understand what the models say, but science, how far north can that I'm not going to call it a warm front.

[00:05:42]We'll call it a quasi warm front. How far north can that get? And we both agree that the southern part of our area just simply has that better chance.

[00:05:49]>> Yeah. I mean, when you look at models, sometimes you have to take a step aside and like, all right, what is actually happening? Well, look at the due points first of all. I mean, that is super super soupy. I mean, super soupy. 73 dup point in Springfield is nasty. I mean, I know there's a 71 up in Austin, but it's also raining, stratapform rain up in Austin. So, when you have all this light rain that's continuing to pour overhead, you're not going to warm up very much. I mean, our high in Louisville may be able to climb up another couple degrees or so, and that's if we can get some dry time. And our southern communities, they're dry, which means they're warming up. They're in the mid to uper 70s. So, they're building up a little bit more of that storm fuel. And you can see where Mark placed that low pressure system at over toward western Kentucky. And so that effective, we're going to call it a quasi warmfront, that effective warmfront is approximately here. Um, with an effective warmfront, our area, what you see is north of it, the winds are out of the east.

[00:06:42]>> If this effective warmfront did not exist, if it was not in our area, we would not be doing a live today. We would be saying it's raining. Enjoy the rain. Don't enjoy the rain. That's what we've got. But the reality is there is an effective warm front. And those are things that we have to watch. Radar in motion. You can see the twirl. The interesting thing on this one is it's very diffuse near Madisonville, but it is almost lifting northnorthwest. It's kind of starting to get caught in that building blocking weather pattern.

[00:07:10]>> Yeah.

[00:07:10]>> But we've got a couple of rumbles of thunder here. And Bryce, it's exactly where you noted. It's it's south of Etown where those temperatures are a little warmer.

[00:07:19]>> Yeah. And you can get maybe a couple areas with some clearing in there as well. Um so when you get a little bit of clearing in there, that's when you can get obviously get a little bit more heat and more fuel. So there's a few lightning strikes um over near the Buffalo area down near Magnolia and these are moving east northeast. So Raywick, Lorettto, Lebanon, uh Saloma, Campbellville, you're kind of under those right now and those are on the uptick. They're starting to get a little stronger and you can see some minor rotation in there. It's nothing that is warranting a warning or anything like that, but it's showing that these storms are getting taller. Mark, they're getting a little stronger than what's over Louisville right now. Just the plain old rain because they have some heat to work with >> and and that's going to be something that we watch. If you look here, there's a little transient rotation here. So, I will tell you upfront, >> um, what we'll do be doing behind the scenes is we're going to be looking at these storms really closely because probably every one of them is going to rotate to an extent. Now, rotating thunderstorms does not equal tornado producing thunderstorms. There is a difference. Um, but things that get near the warmfront, as we say, will be spinny things. They will have some level of rotation. Once they cross the warm front into the cooler side, um you will then lose some of the fuel. You would have maximum rotation potential, but really we just need to watch out where that front is located. So this is advanced track here. Um Bryce, we can see that effective warm front. If we look at this particular map, we can see southerntherly flow in Etown. You got it.

[00:08:41]>> And you can see it turns near Louisville. Yeah. So that effective warm front is probably just south of Louisville at five.

[00:08:46]>> And you see some stuff here. And you know, if you've looked at thunderstorms and you have some weather background, you would look at this and say, "I'm not overly impressed." And and Bryce, that that would be an accurate analysis.

[00:08:59]>> Yeah. I mean, the forcing is sort of there, but it's not very strong. If you had a lot of strong forcing, you'd be talking about a big band of supercells going just south of that front. Um, but as Mark mentioned, there's just not a lot there. And you can see obviously the difference, not even just where the winds are turning, but also where the warm air is. I mean, a comparison from 76 in Campbellville to 71 up near Bedford, that warmer air is going to be the key for these storms to get going.

[00:09:25]And the models do a pretty good job on the general placement on where these are likely to pop off a little bit along, south, and east of the Kentucky Parkways, which is why we were mentioning about 5 minutes ago or so that we think the greatest chance of where that 2% risk probably should belong is where it was earlier was down in the southeast and uh southeastern portion of our area and over toward eastern Kentucky. So, from around Etown, Harden County, everywhere south and east of there. Um, and Advanced Track picks up on it perfectly well. And there's not a ton of storms. I mean, this isn't something that's going to have like 15, 20 warnings going along. It would be a couple rogue ones, maybe.

[00:10:02]>> And so, the toolbox, the weather service has the toolbox. Understand what they can use. Special weather statement. I think there could be a little rotation in this. Funnels are possible. I don't think it meets warning. I'm a little more nervous. I'm going to issue a severe thunderstorm for substandard wind energy. Um, but I'm going to put tornado possible. And then the absolute elevated that they could use would be tornado warning. In this instance, those special weather statements are the preferred tool in the tool box.

[00:10:30]>> Then if their concern goes up a little, they may use severe with tornado possible. Um, tornado warnings are possible. Um, they're just just not a high probability. And Bryce, you know, the window here is not open long. This is heating and the door slams. Yeah, it's not after from I'd say from around 3 to sunset is probably going to be your best chance. Uh because after that, you've got more rain moving in. You're losing your a you're losing your daytime heating and you're losing what you're seeing on your screen, which is instability. Our instability peaks right around peak heating of the day because instability and heat go hand in hand.

[00:11:00]They're like siblings. And you can see we've got a lot. And this is the main reason why we kind of think that the Storm Prediction Center has expanded this all the way to Louisville is because Louisville has a decent amount of instability in the data. If in the data >> if exactly we can dry off a little bit from here through around 5:30. If we don't get much dry time between now and peak heating of the day, it's a done deal.

[00:11:22]>> So, um there is fuel. And then, you know, the interesting thing is is and this is what kind of raises an eyebrow me.

[00:11:28]>> The HR still has >> 1300 units of instability at 11:30 at night. I >> I I I just don't know if I'm buying it.

[00:11:38]>> I don't either. We don't have enough south wind to keep if we were continually to warm through the evening and overnight we continued to warm up in an odd scenario. It'd be different. But >> I mean, we're cooling down tonight. We were cooling down. We lost the sun. We I mean, we're still raining in some of our areas. So, I Yeah, it's very hard to believe when you look at it.

[00:11:56]>> Um, looking at the mid-level winds, um, one thing I will remind you is that what we look for somewhere from the surface to six miles above the ground is about 40 mph winds. They're looking here about a mile above the ground only to see what the storm environment what they can really sample. And what I mean by that is are the storm if the storms are dealing with a lot of low-level flow. It ups the ante.

[00:12:16]Wait a minute.

[00:12:18]The lowle flow is 9 miles an hour in Louisville. I mean that that's it.

[00:12:24]Yeah. Yeah. That that is actually it.

[00:12:27]Okay. It comes up to 15 miles an hour in Louisville.

[00:12:31]But then that's not much. But what you do notice is it's still substandard, but it's just a little bit better in our southern counties. And then by midnight, you can see it's easing upward. But as we know, we believe that the fuel should be easing backward at this time. Price, you know, one of the real limiting factors here is is as you mentioned earlier, the low is not as profound. It is not as distinct. It is not as strong as it was on Friday. Therefore, the lowle flow is more disjointed. It doesn't make the hard turn. and it kind of eases and and wiggles around there.

[00:13:01]And that just doesn't hold the same prowess, >> I think, that what we saw on on Friday.

[00:13:06]And Friday was also admittedly a low-end threat and only had one tornado touchdown. Now, >> if you're in Ohio County and the tornado touch, that's a big deal. But we still do service an area and we try to give you guys realistic expectations. Bryce, the supercell composite's an interesting thing. This is going to basically put fuel and wind energy. We're going to pour it all into one pot and it's going to give us one number.

[00:13:30]>> Yep.

[00:13:30]>> And the values here are zilch.

[00:13:34]>> Yeah. There's not much at all. And this is through peak heating. This is through peak heating. You get a couple little >> lighter colors. Maybe a one in there >> maybe.

[00:13:41]>> Um but I mean when you're talking about there's one in Hardenburg, but look at the time. It's 10:00.

[00:13:46]>> Exactly. And it's overestimating the fuel.

[00:13:48]>> And look at it go up even more overnight. So >> it's still only one even at its max.

[00:13:51]>> And this is what we're talking about.

[00:13:53]We're not going to peak our heating and peak when we have the most instability at midnight. In this case, that's not going to happen. So, you have to look and be like, "All right, well, the data's obviously got this wrong." So, like we mentioned earlier, we kind of have to focus on what's happening right now. Well, right now it's raining and it's cooler in Louisville and there's no sun and there's barely any wind. So, why did the Storm Prediction Center expand that all wet to our area? just because in the data in our opinion it does show a little bit of fuel for up toward Louisville but obviously it becomes more than just fuel.

[00:14:25]>> And you know what you know I think there's times that you and I can be critical of the route the storms prediction center goes and look let's let's be transparent on this. This is a 2%.

[00:14:33]>> True.

[00:14:33]>> It's not like they're throwing the farm at this one. You know so I I I almost feel that I can be a little bit more lenient um on a 2%. Um, in transparency, the only area that the data has any rotational um, swaths, >> meaning any consistent area of rotation is in eastern Kentucky and it's near and south of the western in bluegrass. So, um, from here, let's touch on the final thing and I'm going to have to go back into the studio and Bryce will take over with Q&A. The 2% tornado risk, Bryce, if we were drawing this, I think I, you know, we've talked extensively on this, we would probably put it approximately through here. We have no problems with the southern extent of this. It's just on the northern edge. It may be two counties.

[00:15:16]>> Yeah, it's like a little bit too much foot on the gas. And honestly, if they were going to keep this marginal risk of severe weather in our area, and in my opinion, you'd probably agree with me.

[00:15:24]It'd probably be better just to keep the tornado risk where it was and then maybe expand the damaging wind risk, uh, which we also have a 5% which is the lowest end to go along with our tornado risk.

[00:15:34]And that comes up to match the tornado risk. So, in my opinion, if we're going to expand anything, it would be this, which I think feel like this is a fine placement because of the fact that some data does show that we have enough thunderstorm fuel to maybe get a stronger storm or two in there. But in terms of having enough wind shear and enough fuel to get some of these tornado spin-ups and these weak spin-ups going, it probably would have been better to leave that down to our southeast. But, I mean, they expanded the damaging wind risk up to Louisville, too.

[00:16:02]>> So, what we want to tell you is we can't rule out a rogue spin. We do think that it is lower than what we saw on Friday.

[00:16:09]A lot of thunderstorms will exhibit lowend rotation. We would have to watch near where that effective warmf frontont is, which will probably be near the parkways. This is what we would monitor.

[00:16:19]If of course we get a warning, we would come live here. We come live on TV and you guys would see if it's a severe thunderstorm warning. Obviously on TV, you guys know we would be covering this extensively. So, we just want to let you know that there is not a zero probability. I would say it's under 2%, but I I can't I can't bad them for delineating the area. I really can't.

[00:16:38]And it's the lowest probability they have. Um a tornado warning or two is not impossible. Um I think that it would be preferred south of the parkways or eastern Kentucky if >> we were to get that one or two warning.

[00:16:49]So Bryce, I am going to hand this over to you.

[00:16:52]>> I am going to let you do Q&A and I am going to send all of the toys and devices and everything over to you and I'm going to head into the studio and I'll see you in a few minutes.

[00:17:00]>> All right. So Mark's going to go on and start his forecast for the um 4:00 news.

[00:17:04]Um this will be on here in just a little bit. So we're going to do some Q&A. If anybody has any questions, by all means, let me know. And uh we will get right into them. So again, there is the look at our damage and wind risk um for this afternoon and for this evening. And I'm actually going to switch chairs here so that I can get a better good look at your all's questions um and what we're talking about for this evening. So when we talk about a damaging wind risk, all this is basically saying is we have a chance for some strong to severe storms in our area that could produce a damaging wind gust or a severe wind gust which is classified as 58 miles an hour or stronger. So if we were going to see anything up in Louisville, um at least in our opinion, it's probably going to be more of a strong damaging wind uh risk than is a tornado risk. But we'll go ahead and pull in all these questions now that Mark's not out of here and I've switched myself on over. We'll try to go through some of these and uh I'll also pull up live radar for you guys. That way if you have any questions, if you're heading out, you're leaving work soon, maybe get off a little early or something like that. Uh we'll take a live look and continue to watch some of these storms down in southeast Kentucky because if any of them get strong, it's probably going to be some of these or the ones that end up forming behind it down in our southeastern Kentucky communities.

[00:18:17]All right, let's see. Hardensburg. So Hardinsburg, you're kind of in one of those spots to where um you could have I can't rule out a spin- up. It's not the greatest chance. I will I'll be honest with you. Um again, a couple severe thunderstorm warnings could be possible down there.

[00:18:33]You've got a little bit more warmth than the rest of us like up here in Louisville because I mean when you look at radar right there next to me, it's literally still raining in Louisville. I mean this is not going to allow for severe storms. Now if we dry off a little bit, maybe. But look at the locations that are dry right now. It's those southern communities that we've been talking about the last 15 minutes, right? So, that's going to be where it's a little bit more likely. How much rain has fallen so far? Um, David, let me try to pull that in for you. Um, and then I will get you that answer real quick. Let me pull up the graphic and see. I know at noon we had over an inch of rain alone in some of our Kentucky counties.

[00:19:10]I mean, look at this. This is drought busting rain. This is what we need to help combat drought. This is since midnight. Over an inch and a half of rain in Lichfield. Over an inch and a half of rain in Etown. An inch and a half of rain in Munfordville. An inch and a quarter in Hardensburg. A ten of an inch in Shelbyville.

[00:19:27]That's good rain. That's really good rain. Now, if you're wondering about Louisville in particular, uh I'll pull that one up as well so you guys can see that one. Now, Louisville's mainly seen uh the lighter stuff. So, it's not quite as much compared to uh say down in Lichfield, areas like that have seen a little bit more of that moderate rain and allowed it to last a little bit longer. Uh but for our area, I mean, even by noon, we were talking about locations that saw at least a quarter inch of rain in South Louisville. So, when it's consistent like this and it lasts for a little while, that's how you get your drought busting rain. So, this is some really good rainfall for us. I know you're like, "Okay, well, I'm done with the rain. I don't want to see anymore." I get it. and we're going to start to dry off. But in Louisville alone, since midnight, we've gotten just over a half inch of rain. But you look down toward Fern Creek, they've gotten an inch of rain. Valley Station's gotten almost an inch of rain. The East End's got over a half inch. So, we still got more coming, too. So, we're still not done.

[00:20:24]Um, how's the risk of the tornado um of tornadoes for Lebanon and Junction?

[00:20:28]Elaine, uh, thank you for the question.

[00:20:30]So, you are included in this 2% risk. I will tell you that the further north you are on that highlighted area, in our opinion, the least likely you're going to see it. It's not impossible, okay?

[00:20:41]But it's definitely not the highest we've seen recently. Now, it's the same level risk that we had this past Friday, but again, like what Mark mentioned earlier, this the low that was moving through had a little bit more strong winds at the surface. So, when you head out, you're going to be like, I don't even feel any wind right now. And that's kind of what we're mentioning. That's kind of the case that we're putting out.

[00:21:04]Let's see. Is uh crispy biscuit on YouTube. If fuel is a function of temps do point lapse rates, what mistake is the her making with cape increasing overnight? That's a good question. I'd have to really dive into it um to pick that up. But obviously, you know kind of what you're talking about in terms of uh weather background. So, I don't know if it's just keeping too much warmth in here for too long or what, but this is what separates people from being a modelologist and being a meteorologist.

[00:21:34]You have to look at what's also happening right now, right? You can't just be buried in the data all the time because sometimes computers are wrong, right?

[00:21:43]Um, let's see. I've heard things about a possible do being possible this year.

[00:21:47]What do you guys think? So, Josh, um, do interesting. So, if you don't know what a datio is, basically a datio is just a huge wall of wind with storms, but it does a lot of straight line wind damage.

[00:21:59]Typically, when we get into early summer, that is when we go toward what we call MCS season. And MCS seasons can cause datos, but do are usually, not always, but usually a little more likely up in the plains. Um, you know, we're not forecasting any durio anytime soon, just to be clear.

[00:22:18]But usually early summer is when we get those if uh if we were to get them.

[00:22:27]Let's see. Weird question. Rumor has it Waterfront Wednesday has been moved to Thursday. Is this a joke or weather related? Um, no. That that is real. Uh, Justin, Waterfront Wednesday, I believe, was moved to Thursday. There is a chance of some scattered downpours tomorrow. Um I didn't even have a rain chance for Thursday. So that's probably why.

[00:22:50]What time is all this due? I just got on. Um so there's going to be a very t a thin time frame of when this is possible because again we're going to be running out of daylight which means we're running out of heating. I think between around now and 8 o'clock is probably going to be the best chance. And that's because that's when we're at our peak heating and when some of our southern counties can dry off for a little bit longer. Um so like down here in Lichfield, you see some of these storms coming out of Bowling Green, out of Morgantown. As those storms start to move a little bit further to the northeast, that could be maybe when we could watch some of those to maybe become a little bit on the stronger side.

[00:23:25]Good question. No dumb questions. I promise.

[00:23:31]Mitchell Kellerman on YouTube says, "Bryce, I work in it. Computers are never wrong. Yeah, I'm sure. I'm sure. Uh Christy, what about Harden County? So Harden, I think you are far south enough to where a spin-up can't be ruled out later this afternoon and this evening. It's not the highest probability. Um but you're kind of in that zone to where you see Etown, Southern Harden dry right now, which also means you're warming up a little bit. So, you're building up some instability even though we'll be kind of limited on how much wind shear we have.

[00:24:05]Um, you can't rule out a quick spin up um in this scenario um in Etown between like three and eight.

[00:24:13]Again, I think if we have any warnings, it's going to be pretty rogue warning.

[00:24:18]I'm talking like two or three maybe and maybe a rogue tornado warning, but I think that's a little bit more likely east of our area.

[00:24:27]Bryce, if you could forecast weather anywhere other than Louisville, where would it be? Somewhere like San Diego or extreme like the Rocky Mountains? Good question. I wouldn't I would love to live in San Diego, but I would not forecast there because uh that's boring.

[00:24:39]I would probably say um I don't know, somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast, hurricanes, something like that. But I love it here because well, first of all, I'm from here, but we get everything here.

[00:24:50]Um southern Indiana. A couple questions about southern Indiana. So, southern Indiana is not included in that uh 2% risk and they shouldn't be. So, kudos to the SBC for that. Um Indiana, you're going to be really hardressed to get any strong storms because the further north you go, the longer you're going to be stuck under the rain. And the longer that you're stuck under the rain, the less instability you're going to be able to build up.

[00:25:17]Let's see.

[00:25:20]Everyone stay safe. Yeah, be sure you're be careful on the road. 65 is a mess right now. That's why we had to start late. Mark got stuck in all that.

[00:25:30]Um, I'm in Valley Station. Should I go to a place with a basement and wet time?

[00:25:34]So, I'm never going to tell you to not go to your safe place, Cheyenne, but I will tell you that I don't think that this is a case and scenario to where you need to be camping out in a place that has one.

[00:25:47]You know what I mean? Um, again, it's not impossible to get a quick spin up in this scenario in South Louisville. It's just not very likely to be honest. I'll be honest with you. If I had if my I have a basement and I live in southwest Louisville, I have a basement. If I didn't have one, I wouldn't be going out of my way to go somewhere that has one just in case. your normal safe spaces, your hallways, your closets will do just fine in this scenario because if if we manage to get a quick spin up in this scenario, those are typically the weaker tornadoes, the EFzer's, the EF1's.

[00:26:23]Kadem, uh, what about this omega block coming? Are we in a safe zone or storm zone? So, what Kim is asking about is what's called an omega block pattern to where there's a big old high-pressure system right over central Canada and then there's two lows that are stuck on the other side of it. Looks like the letter omega. All right, so if you were in Greek life in college, think about what the omega symbol looks like. All right, that high pressure is right under the little ridge in the omega symbol and there's two lows on the other side. We are close to that low, but I don't think we're quite under it enough to be in a very stormy, unsettled pattern. It'll be close, but I think we we would trend more dry in that scenario. Good question. We'll do a couple more and then we'll hop on off here.

[00:27:04]Um, no end to this it seems. Michael, I will tell you it looks a little drier till the end of the week. So, hang in there. Hang in there.

[00:27:15]Thank you, Mary. I appreciate that. I appreciate it.

[00:27:19]Um, is there a line of storms coming through Louisville or a pop-up scattered storm? So, right now, um, everything that's rolling through Louisville is just plain old boring rainfall that a lot of us are sick and tired of seeing.

[00:27:29]All right, I'll pull up radar here again. Uh, but you see some of these storms, well, they're not even, you can't really call them storms. There's like one lightning strike. There's two, sorry, there's two lightning strikes um in our southern Kentucky counties right now. We would see maybe something more like this where they're kind of scattered um thunderstorms for the afternoon. So, if you watched yesterday morning when Chris Sudter and I or this past weekend with Raina and I, I talked about how we would likely start off Tuesday widespread rain and then we go over to more scattered pop-up storms um and sporadic thunderstorms. That's what the afternoon, the late afternoon would probably look like. All right, we'll take one or two more.

[00:28:06]One or two more.

[00:28:08]Is this is tomorrow our last chance of rain for a while, Levi? Um, in general, no. But I would say it's our last widespread rain chance for a little bit.

[00:28:17]We got maybe another chance coming Saturday, but there's still some discrepancies in the data. And then we're going to start to settle into that omega blocking pattern that someone was mentioning earlier, which usually in that scenario would trend us to be a little bit dry in that placement.

[00:28:32]Bardstown, Dorian is asking, "So Bargetown, um, first of all, right now you just got through that quick little downpour that rolled through the central part of Nelson County. So you just east the barge sound that little storm's moving its way on through. But you can also see a little curl in these. So this is what we're going to have to watch out for. Um it's just some of these areas that have just a little bit of minor rotation in it. So when we pull velocity, there's not a lot. I mean there's a maybe a tiny little bit here.

[00:29:02]Um but a lot of these storms are going to move through our southern counties.

[00:29:06]We're just going to have to watch for any minor little rotation that's in it because you're not going to get anything big out of them. I can promise you that.

[00:29:13]So, as you go through the rest of the afternoon um for uh whoever was asking about the bargetown area, it's not impossible to get a quick spin up in this scenario. Um but it would mainly be after around 4:00 in my opinion. So, I'm going to take this and kind of scope around here for a minute. And you can tell there's just not a lot there, right? Um there's not a lot to work with. There's a couple little spins here there, but it's not enough to be really too concerned with it. So, all right. In that case, uh we're going to go ahead and get ready to hop off here. Thank you guys for joining in. Lowend tornado risk for today. Mark is going through the data right now out in the studio. Um he's going to put a forecast together for um this afternoon. Um and he will be doing all the shows. Rick Duke is off today, I believe. So, he'll be doing the four, five, six, nine, and 10 today. So, be sure to join back in with him if we get any rogue thunderstorm severe thunderstorm warnings.