First Alert Weather: Heat Dome Returns this weekend and Storm Chances Ahead

[00:00:00]Hey there, chief meteorologist, Nick Jansen, a quick update here on our YouTube page as we are looking at some unseasonably cool temperatures the next couple of days and then we are right back to the heat, humidity, and some thunderstorm chances across upper Midwest. So, let's dive into the forecast here. Again, remember, like and subscribe and turn on that bell notification, too, uh when we do have some of these videos. Here are some of the low temperatures across the region.

[00:00:25]Look at our lows down into the low 50s and some upper 40s uh moving through tonight and into tomorrow. Tonight's lows here locally in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa, about 50 to maybe 51° for most locations. So, we are still unseasonably cool, about 10° below average in terms of those lows. High temperatures tomorrow, we start to have some warmth building out to the west here. So, you can see some 80s in some locations. We're in the upper 70s, and then things really start to change by the upcoming weekend. This is a look at the upper-level pattern by Sunday, and look at what is happening. We have this big ridge building. We'll have another high-pressure system. We just can't get out of this pattern. So, another heat dome will be likely uh throughout uh pretty much the weekend and most of next week. Now, the interesting thing of where we are at in terms of the heat dome is with this high centered out to the east. This will be the location that we'll be watching for for maybe some surges of energy. And with the heat and the humidity, you could be looking at some thunderstorm activity. And we can kind of see Notice these little notches here in the isobars.

[00:01:45]Okay, those are called shortwaves, and that is a burst of energy which provides lift in the atmosphere. And that, again, is what we'll be watching for uh in terms of if we can spark any showers and thunderstorms. Before we get to the thunderstorm chances by Sunday and Monday, let's talk about the heat and humidity. Here's some of our feel like temperatures. Look at this swath of feel like temperatures all the way up, maybe up over 100 to 105 degrees. Locally through Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, probably looking at the mid and upper 90s for those heat indices. This is on That's Sunday. So, that is a look at the what the European model has. The GFS is pretty much on par with what the Euro is saying. Uh, just maybe the GFS running a little warmer across the central plains and then getting into western Iowa and western Missouri. This little patch right here, the GFS has some thunderstorms developing across those regions. That's why you see some lower heat indices. Uh, but most of us would not be surprised if we end up having some heat advisories issued by the National Weather Service for Sunday. And then again on Monday, uh, Monday could really be a warm day with heat indices across Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois up over 100 degrees will be, uh, definitely possible, uh, for Mon- for Sunday and again on Monday. Uh, here's another look on on Sunday again, just kind of a a different viewpoint with those dew po- with dew points increasing and then again, we'll still have those feel like temperatures. I mean, we're still looking at feel like temperatures all across the Great Lakes.

[00:03:27]Really, really warm, uh, all the way up into the upper 90s through about Michigan. So, our upper level pattern continues. This is all the way through July 30th and notice that high pressure system weakens a little bit. We start to get a low digging in, um, out to the east. So, probably have some thunderstorm activity by late next week, but still where we're at, maybe we're a little cooler by late week compared to [snorts] what we will be probably Sunday through Tuesday, Wednesday, but probably looking at highs closer to maybe just the low 80s instead of those upper 80s and low 90s.

[00:04:08]Where we're at, you can kind of call it the ring of fire with those thunderstorm chances. This is kind of what I have highlighted for Sunday and Monday. I think those areas here in orange will see kind of a heightened chance of maybe some thunderstorm activity. Medium chance, so probably looking at isolated scattered thunderstorms and maybe a few stronger storms too will be possible.

[00:04:29]With just how much energy we have in the atmosphere and the big thing is we just need something to spark that energy. So, this is kind of what we're looking at this far out. When you're 5 to 6 days out, you want to see if you have the cape. If you have the energy in the atmosphere and the cape values according to the European model are pretty much off the chart here.

[00:04:48]Looking at 7,000 joules per kilogram across portions of Nebraska and then into Kansas and then into western Iowa there 4 5,000. That's a lot. We are looking at good atmospheric conditions in terms of energy across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. That's the European model. Another look at the Euro which is hinting at a front, maybe a surface boundary. You can kind of see where all of a sudden we don't have any cape.

[00:05:18]That is probably due to a front that'll end up sliding on through. And notice the thing about a front out in front of it, the front is the lifting mechanism and out in front of it we have plenty of energy. So, that's why we're kind of hinting or looking and and featuring, giving you the first alert on those storm chances for Sunday and again on Monday. GFS pretty aggressive on Monday in terms of the thunderstorm activity and not as aggressive on on Sunday.

[00:05:46]Notice those Cape values across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and in Illinois and Indiana uh well up over 3,000 J/kg. So, really wanting to highlight those two days for thunderstorm chances. So, storms late Sunday, probably again on Monday. Those high temperatures are hot into the upper 80s and low 90s. Might have to issue some first alert days due to the heat for Sunday and Monday. Remember, make sure to like and subscribe and give us a follow here on YouTube.