The Thucydides Trap is a historical pattern where conflicts arise when a rising power threatens to displace an established dominant power, as the dominant power feels threatened by the rising power's expansion. In the context of US-China relations, this concept explains why tensions are inherent between the two nations, with China warning the US not to 'mess with Taiwan' and both sides navigating complex diplomatic challenges while managing mutual distrust and strategic competition.
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Donald goes to China.
>> The Dawn goes to China.
>> I don't know if people know. It's the second time he's been I saw the press mention. First time in nine years that a US president has been to China. Yeah.
Who was the last one? It was him. Trump um in his first year.
Um, I know there was a massive parade. They had the same pageantry we saw this time, but it was even bigger last time. There was a a full more like a small military parade out on the main street as well. Um, this first time it was years later before I saw even clips of it because I think at the time the CIA at all were obviously trying to color global perception of Trump and China pulled a 180 and did massive pageantry for this new guy his first year, you know.
Anyway, so it was his second visit.
Um I don't think is there much that he Trump obviously went with one set of ideas in mind.
Um the Chinese at least the official statements are always um vague or general at best and they never address anything they mentioned around once. You know the kind of elephant in the room is the current event of the day and Chinese statements whether it was or other digital me talk about in general about you know relations and world peace and world issues and stuff.
Um one wonders what's said behind the closed doors but even then I wouldn't be surprised if they're just as opaque privately you know. Yeah, they uh the Chinese obviously the Chinese's uh priority was Taiwan.
>> That's what they focused on. It wasn't just generalities. It was like Taiwan was obviously >> pretty much the only thing they wanted to >> uh talk about >> or the only the only the main thing they wanted to talk about or to to send a message on.
Um right she said uh Taiwan is the most important US issue. Yeah. In our relations if handled poorly as the two countries will collide or cl even clash putting the US entire USChina relationship in an extremely dangerous situation.
Um it kind of speaks to maybe because that's not currently a hot topic. you know, it doesn't look we people are everyone's got for a while there a couple of years ago well is Taiwan next after Ukraine and stuff like that but there's no great signs of outward signs of that you know becoming the next hot issue um except on the Chinese side but by like making this the first point he made in his statement at their their meeting um and period periodically the massive um military exercises the Chinese undertake in around Taiwan.
>> Mhm.
>> Um what what what might that speak to the if if Trump comes in and Trump doesn't talk much about Taiwan if ever especially of late it's all Iran, right?
>> Mhm. Um, is that simply a parochial perspective because that's very important to China or is it speaking to we know what you would like to see happen next or what might develop behind the scenes or what you might try to provoke and the Chinese are kind of like uh bringing bringing to the four covert [ __ ] that we don't see that is taking place.
>> Yeah. Well, I mean, obviously there's there's been a lot of military aid ongoing to to Taiwan and stuff. It's, you know, the US is directly involved in in in Taiwan. Um, have a lot of, you know, going back a long time. It's obviously a uh a lever that they they have used or have, you know, been using for quite a long time to to try and pressure pressure Taiwan, you know, or pressure China.
>> Yeah.
>> To exact uh extract concessions, whatever, you know, it's an implied applied threat. we could do this or we could or you know also selling weapons to them and all that kind of stuff and openly saying that they the US uh supports the one China policy but then you don't listen to what they say you look at what they do and what they do is a bit more ambiguous and stuff so it's obviously something that the Chinese can't trust the Americans on. So they took this opportunity with Trump there to kind of like draw a line underneath it. Um >> and Trump afterwards um after the the summit uh he Trump officially said you know warned uh warned I suppose you could say warned Taiwan not to uh not to seek independence. Uh so he obviously got that message from the Chinese you know. M >> um uh what do they say? I'm not looking forward to have I'm not looking to have somebody go independent, said the Fox News.
>> Yeah.
>> Um uh again, that's Trump saying stuff doesn't necessarily mean anything to anybody cuz he says a lot of stuff, you know, but the times are uh don't seem to be on the same page in that sense. Well, I'm not sure if where they getting their own uh where where they're getting their ideas from. You know, if Trump turns around and says that, how much faith can you put in Trump saying that when the Taiwanese then again just after the meeting with Xi uh insisted that um that they're independent uh just a day or two afterwards, you know?
Um so >> yeah on on what basis Taiwanese doing that you know >> Taiwan insists it is independent after Trump warning I I it's already happened.
Yeah this is kind of de facto independent but um it depends who's in charge of the time as well. I think the current party is like more towards uh being pro-western whereas ironically the original founding party the KMT descendants of the losing side in the civil war they're actually much more >> at least pragmatic and realistic about what anything less than reincorporation into China mainland China >> would entail >> yeah I Then there's the Taiwanese Taiwan Taiwan relations act it's called.
It's like what is it 1979 so 40 6 years old or whatever. Uh is basically a law that binds the US to uh to provide Taiwan with defensive means means to defend itself defensive arms and services whatever you know blah blah.
So, there's actually a law in the US books. Um, doesn't mean they'll defend them, not like a NATO article 5 type thing or whatever, but it's like an actual law. Uh, like I said, the binds the US administration deprived Taiwan with defensive defense of arms and services. So, defensive, what does that mean? You know, so it's obviously it's very murky um complicated situation.
Surely at this point though I think we post last week um was it someone's opinion probably but a general or something he was saying that if it came down to it the US would flee um they wouldn't be anywhere near Taiwan um maybe not even Guam at that point uh it's so China's development military has gone beyond the point of >> being able to use it like even Ukraine Ukraine is a large land mass it's porous etc. you could actually have stand back, you know, hidden provisions, hidden forces to some extent cuz the Russians still found a bunch of them. Um, but Taiwan is small. And as Trump underscored when he talked to Fox News afterwards, you know, it's 59 miles away from offshore. We're 9 and a half thousand miles further. So, what are we going to do?
>> Yeah, he was being obvious. He was being realistic. Honest, realistic in that in that sense. Um but I suppose it's more about a souring of the of the relationship, you know what I mean?
where um the US could could like kind of like you're saying with Ukraine in a li more limited way, Ukraine could embolden the Taiwanese to you know have you know kind of covert groups within Taiwan to uh to to try and kick something off um and hold on to perceptions in Taiwan that our independence is better than our reincorporation.
Therefore, if it ever were taken in any kind of peruncter or even with without force way it would be forever a hot bed of resistance and that would probably not be China would not like that because you'd just be deferring the possibility of a site of potential future rebellion even if it's 50 years from now they'd probably like it done.
>> Yeah.
>> In the most natural seamless way possible.
>> Yeah. It was funny. Yeah. They don't they don't want to poison the the mindset of the people, never mind the the military risks, which I think they've got covered. I don't think Yeah.
Yeah. It's I mean, she she spoke about it in um in that kind of standup kind of statement that he made basically. Um his speech, I suppose you call it. It seems that that was the only real thing that really happened. And you know there might have been some deals or some kind of deals going on by it but only you know economic maybe some kind economic although on that uh on that front there doesn't seem to be much achieved either um so it's more grandstanding in a certain sense by uh more more for appearance basically the whole thing was more for appearance for Trump to show that he was uh respected >> he's he's a global leader you know he did a lot to kind of I mean for me the the take away from the whole thing was just how much Trump uh and the Americans in general recognize that China is uh you know a major a major power you know um and that they shouldn't be messed with and they're the Americans are are very very much dependent dependent on China you know as much of the rest of the world you know but you know it's all interlocked in the global economic system obviously but China's a major player you know and uh um Trump Trump said uh on the way back home or whatever. Um, what did he what did he say that he made reference to someone saying um that the US was declining or was it declining empire?
>> So he said that Xi had said that he didn't say that in his formal speech but it must have been somewhere else. No, but um he was um Let me see if I can find the actual actual reference of Trump saying it. Um yeah, it here.
Um, it was kind of funny like Trump's I don't know not the brightest uh in one way. Anyway, um, >> President on Trump social you said that uh, President Chi had made a reference to the decline of the US. We didn't hear him say that. Maybe it was something he said in privacy. And so what was it first of all that he said that prosecutor >> he made a statement.
>> It might not have been from him. It was somebody but they talked about the decline. But he said today and he said it very publicly. He said the US was declining for the last four years. And he said what President Trump has done in the last 15 16 months has been virtually a miracle. He said we have the hottest he said we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. But he said it was a declining country under Joe Biden.
He said we had a declining a seriously declining country which we did with people pouring in from all over the world from prisons and everything else.
He said, "What President Trump has done has been a virtual miracle. It's the hottest country anywhere in the world."
And it is a different >> like recordings or it didn't happen.
Trump, you know, um uh >> he said he definitely said it might have been him. It might have been someone else. Anyway, >> it's just it's all so ridiculous. Like here's the actual um so the guy was asking about the reporter was asking about a truth social post. Um and this is the truth social post. So he said uh when President G very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage suffered. So this is Trump's interpretation of but like it's like Trump's interpretation of something that Xi said that he didn't really understand himself and then Trump interprets his misinterpretation of what Xi said and this is what you get basically and what he what he said to the reporter as well.
Um so he said when presence he very elegantly referred to the Americans you know X's reference to the the thusidities the thusidities trap is what he is what he was referring to basically um and Trump interpreted that or was told by someone that that meant that he was referring to America as a declining nation which is not really the case um And um so that's Trump referring to that. So Trump was obviously told that cuz obviously Trump heard G say this in Chinese through an interpret and then got it interpreted in real time, whatever. Didn't really get the the thicus uh reference and had to have that interpreted for him and someone dumbed it down for him uh and referred to it obviously in one way or another. Trump got from the the interpretation of it that was given to him by one of his aids or something that meant that America was a declining nation. But obviously the trap is basically just it wasn't even it was just basically a basic obser observation.
Somebody else came up with the term some later American historian whatever came up with the actual term through Alison Graeme Allison >> Thus trap but but it basically refers to just that generally speaking throughout history whenever there's a major power and then there's a rising power um the that very often leads to conflict because the the the dominant power doesn't like the threat from a a rising power or the rising power decides to try and you know shirt front dominant power, whatever. Um, and that, you know, historically, so it's not exactly a very deep uh observation. It's it's a very kind of kind of almost obvious thing that anybody could, you know, determine just by looking at the way human nature goes. Um, so but that's so Xi referred to it as uh you know the so-called thus trap. you know, if hopefully we'll be able to avoid the so-called thirsty strap. Um, referring to obviously in that context referring to America as the dominant power and China as rising power. So that's literally what he was saying. He basically could have said, look, it's there there hopefully will avoid any any kind of conflict down the line given that America is the global dominant power right now and China is a rising power or a nearpeer competitor whatever. Um, hopefully, you know, that obviously is fraught with potential conflict whatever. So hopefully we'll be able to we along with the Americans and if the Americans played it right would all be able to avoid that kind of thing happening. So Trump interpreted that he got that interpreted for him as Xi saying that America was a declining power and then Trump had to spin that because he loves Xi so much and Xi is his bestest friend. Uh his best friend would never say something mean about him. But his best friend didn't say anything mean about him. He was just making a historical observation and maybe you know warning about a potential future uh threat of of of the American US u American China getting into into some kind of conflict and that they should both try and avoid it. Uh so it wasn't uh an insult in any way but Trump then had it interpreted for him as an insult and then realized that well he can't actually say that she actually insulted us. So we had to spin it into Xi was actually talking about uh well first of all he was told he was he had incorrectly interpreted for him as GI basically said America's declining power. So then he said well we're not a declining power. Uh >> he he didn't we were under Biden.
>> Well no we were under Biden so we had to spin it into Biden did this and it all just got so it's just typical Trump like it just got so carballed.
>> So you end up with basically with that you know. Um >> when she when president she very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation which he didn't he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Joe Joe Biden which he wasn't and the Biden administration and on that score he was 100% correct so it's like just >> I suspect his inclusion of elegantly is because when it was interpreted form and the guy explained who Thusidities was >> Trump went uhhuh fancy Yeah.
>> So, so what you're saying is he's insulting us, but he's done it very Chinese way. I get it. Okay. So, he's elegantly done.
>> Except he wasn't insulting whoever told him that.
>> Exactly. It was a structural observation. It wasn't in any way meant to be personal or subjective or.
>> And then Trump's reporter spinning it as he actually said to me, "Well, the hottest America is the hottest country in the world. You've done an amazing job." All that kind of stuff. So, all that didn't happen either. Probably certainly didn't happen in the way Trump is describing it because there was no cause for him to do that. It's almost like Trump parlayed as uh well X suggested we were claiming power uh but then he turned around and said that no we're the hottest most awesome power in the world today because he was only referring to us under Biden. He wasn't referring to me or anything that I've done cuz I'm I've made America the hottest country in the world and she she recognized that. He actually came up to me slapping me in the back and say hey Trump you've got the hottest country in the world. You're awesome. Uh that's literally what Trump said. He said so you know the whole thing is just like a [ __ ] show basic. It's ridiculous. The whole thing is absolutely ridiculous.
And the fact that anybody the fact that people have to try and comment coherently on a bunch of nonsense uh is is silly, you know, rather than actually calling out as just a bunch of nonsense. And you know, and here's what's really going on in a certain sense, you know, which is that basically America went to Trump went to China to get uh to get some good optics basically. I'm, you know, I'm still the decider and I'm going here and she's my best friend and and we're going to they're going to make we're going to make some amazing deals, you know, so many million millions of Boeings.
They're going to order millions of Boings. I didn't order actually.
Apparently they wanted 500 they got some kind of a >> halfass maybe sometime in the future 200 planes >> and not much else. Uh so what was it all for? Nothing really. Um there's an interesting cultural um difference for me anyway. Trump in his statement after Xi sat down, we have the greatest business and the biggest I guess that's literally what he said, but he just been talking about the the 10 or so CEOs who came with him. He had Musk Horse and Cook and what's his name from Nvidia Jensen.
>> Mhm. And all the rest.
>> Best in the world. Amazing people. And they're all with me. I wanted only the top and they're here to sp to pay respects to you, China, etc., etc. Mhm.
>> Now, for the Chinese, um, they weren't It's just pageantry, I know, but still it it speaks to something. They weren't interested when the key moment of them meeting on the red carpet before the little military parade and the playing of the anthems and the kids waving the flags and stuff.
They have the lineup of the two cabinets. That's the most important part. And we've seen the lineup where she walks down and he's introduced to they're all there. Steven Miller, Bessant, etc. >> And it takes a moment. It might even exchange a few words with each one. The Chinese, the >> these are the people I'm supposed to meet. Even if they know how the US really works and it's more oligarchic and it's, you know, it's the deputy under secretary of state who was a former venture capitalist who's the real power, blah blah blah blah. But the Chinese, no, no, it's the Mandarin class.
>> Mhm. these 10 cabinet people I don't your CEOs their second order rank I might meet to them they won't get a camera moment with me though your cabinet people will >> not that's just well that's just diplomacy that's just that's norm normal process like normal procedure like I mean that's that's official procedure you stick with official procedure like you're not going to Trump deviates from it or tries to deviate from it >> or doesn't know how to do it basically but Chinese obviously are going to do the same thing that >> any other country does is which it's formal meeting of the governments like you know >> regardless self. Um but that's just yes.
So the Chinese approach in that respect is just the standard like you meet the government like this is these are my cabinet members. Yeah. This is who's these are official representative representatives of the of the American government like the the other guys they see the business people are yeah they're it's good to have them there obviously behind the scenes but they just do their they deal with our business people. They don't deal with the government like it's government to government and then business to business. That's the way it's always happened, you know. Um, that's the way it always happened. Um, so, uh, but yeah. Um, yeah, he met uh I don't know that he he he paused for a while. Not a while obviously, but he paused for a few seconds longer with in front of Steven Miller when shaking hands. You know, >> he kind of eyeballed him and >> what kind of creature you What are you?
Cuz Steven Miller would have this kind of like, you know, weird look in his face type thing, you know. So, do you probably looked at him went why you look at me like that, you know?
>> Yeah. He wants to size them up.
>> I don't know. Just I mean, I would probably do the same thing if they're weird head and one of them would be like if you're a curious person like you're a bit odd.
Uh take an extra couple of seconds to eyeball them, you know. Um but uh yeah, but that's Trump. That's the difference. Yeah, there's a difference in in um a difference in attitude or I suppose or or emphasis or or priorities or whatever. Yeah. And Trump thinks Trump same with anybody. Trump uh loves having smoke blown up his ass. And therefore, he can't not think uh that everybody else loves that too, especially someone like Xi or whatever, that they all like what he likes, right?
I mean, it's typical projection that >> he said in the past, I want the respect that Xi gets. Yeah, but he but he imagines the kind of respect, you know what I mean? And >> you know >> what does he want? Does he want he wants a statue built him? Well, he got one this week, right? Obviously, but >> yeah, he wants posters. He wants >> but um >> he thinks that, you know, he doesn't he just says stuff that doesn't need to be said. You know, he's not he's not a very good diplomat. You know, he's not he's not obviously schooled in that he's a businessman. That's why he talked about the business people, you know, cuz he thinks they're the most important. And you know technically they are but they're formalities to go through in a certain sense. You know what I mean? Of course, cuz >> you know, business people would very likely be there much longer than, you know, heads of businesses would be there longer term than any particular member of a cabinet, whatever. You know, a lot of them don't even get to do the four years in the administration that they're actually in, you know. Uh so in that sense, Trump, you know, more realistically would think like these members of my cabinet are aren't really important. It's the business guys cuz he's all about the business and stuff.
But G's like, "Well, no officially these I don't care if this person I don't care if your secretary of state, you know, just arrived yesterday and it's going to be fired tomorrow. Uh he's still here as your secretary of state." So that's that's the people I'm meeting. Uh so but Trump talking about, you know, and I brought all the, you know, the top guys, the CEOs, you know, there's no second in commands here, you know. I mean he doesn't need to say that you know who's saying that for you know obviously the Chinese and the Chinese government and business heads of business and stuff know who the >> CEOs of companies are they don't need to be told that by Trump >> it's like you don't need to say that kind of stuff you know if you bring your lower level >> you kind of appointees or lower lower level businessmen then we automatically will understand that you're not that serious you don't need to tell us you know uh that because your CEOs are here that means were serious. We understand that anyway. You don't need to say that publicly on camera. And don't you don't need to say it to me in front of the cameras in one of the televised uh speeches. Uh you don't need to say that to as if you're like >> imparting something.
>> Well, as if you're or telling me how how good I am or how great I am. It's all very crass. You know what I mean? It's like saying stuff that anybody and this what Trump does all the time. say saying stuff out loud that is unnecessary because everybody understands that anyway. You don't need to say that. It's a bit crass and buffoonish and even impolite sometimes to to say the thing that everybody knows is true anywhere or everybody can understand themselves because when you say it, you sound like you're saying it for some ulterior motive, you know?
Or is he saying it for himself because he has to remind himself because he's [ __ ] >> Maybe. You know, I give you, you know, when we met there, I give you a big slap in the back and a kiss on the cheek because I love you so much. Well, you don't need to tell me that cuz I mean, I figured that that was the point, you know. I figured that when you, you know, planted planted your kissers on me that that you love me, you know, and the whole world saw it. you don't need to repeat it afterwards. You know what I mean? Um when you when you bowed down and you know when you took a knee in front of me and presented me with a bouquet of flowers >> and a ring >> I and a ring. I understood that you wanted to marry me. You didn't need to tell the whole world publicly to interpret it for them that that's what actually I was doing.
>> Yeah.
>> I kind of got that. So why would you even say that? Well, otherwise you're just trying to in a certain sense blow your own blow your own trumpet.
Yeah. And >> it's it's it's not intentional on his part, but it's a shame that Trump's subjectivization and um narcissistic misinterpretation of Z's point has therefore obscured the greater question hoped would be articulated to Americans, which they ought to be thinking about at this time. It's in the context of an objective statement. It's kind of like the thing that Lavrov said. He's X said changes unseen in a century are accelerating. That's us. That's you.
That's around. That's it's what is right.
>> So X and said to Putin on a hot mic 2018, I think it was in front of Trump.
>> And that's when he goes, can China and the United States overcome the thus citiz powers?
Can they keeping in mind the well-being of the people of both countries and the future and destiny of humanity jointly build a better future for bilateral relations?
You know, okay, so it's just boilerplate Chinese win-win mutual cooperation stuff. But the the misinterpretation by the leader of the people who was actually there meeting him means that the press didn't really say that. I I got that from El Pis in Europe.
>> Like the the proper text I was looking for from American media. You don't get the text of what he said >> of of >> you get. Yeah. You get >> it was on there videos of it like okay as it was being >> there were videos on on and subs you know subtitles of the actual meetings like of all those publicly recorded the public meetings that were all published.
you know, maybe they didn't turn it into text earlier at that point, whatever. But when it was actually happening, I was watching it and saw them say that, you know.
>> Okay.
>> Or just after whenever they released it, whatever.
>> Yeah.
It's it's what Americans need to be thinking about though.
>> Well, yeah.
Th this problem of um entering the hot zone where you know there's two dominant powers and is it winner takes all you know is it inevitable they clash and >> um how can we yeah but they're not being they're being told the opposite basically you know I mean they're not being told that they're being told the opposite which is why and the Chinese know that and which is why that's the angle they took which is to try and just you know push that that that core problem the core you know the the the really the essential part of of of of the issue of if there is an issue whatever whatevers issue there may be between China and and the US is that you know they're two major powers and uh you don't want them they they should not you know policies should not be pursued that endanger uh >> effectively endanger global global peace by creating the potential for conflict between the US and China because it would not be good for anybody obviously.
And that's that's all they said. And the reason they said that is because that's obviously something that the Chinese feel is a threat. It's not something that is in is insignificant or is is obviously something that's there in the background. And that's ultimately is a message of distrust in in American policy. Um and highlighting the fact that you know they know what happens in that proverbial thusidities uh trap. um they know that it's very difficult for the rising or the the dominant power to to resist uh trying to put down the rising power.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and that that was the most important point of it all. and he's just saying, "Look, this is an issue and you guys, we're not we're not uh we the Chinese are not uh confident that you are uh doing enough that you're aware enough of the of the threat of the danger of this happening and we just like to impress that upon you while you're here. That's really the only thing we want to say is um is that you need to >> Do you think that was also also their statement on Iran? Does that include that?"
>> Their statement on Iran was that they wanted the strike to open again. Yeah.
And yeah. Yeah. Trump afterwards emphasized that they agree with us that Iran shouldn't monetize it or something like that, >> but they didn't say that. They just Yeah. would like it to reopen.
>> Mhm.
>> Um >> Yeah. I mean, there's obviously >> again it's all double deal here and there nobody trusts any nobody trusts anybody else in that sense. you know, it's like cuz they all look at they're looking at each other and looking at the leverage that each each is each has, you know, um or tented leverage that each has over the other and whether they're going to use it. And they don't trust that uh you know, the the Chinese don't trust that the Americans won't use Taiwan, for example, as one example, um against China. and the Americans don't trust that the Chinese won't uh use any of the means that they that are available to them to put pressure on on the US. So it's like it's it's none of it's all it's very diff very difficult you know um when you have when you're in that position and that that is the core the core issue is that dominant power versus a rising power or rising powers let's say if you want to include >> Russia >> the kind of multipolar world or bricks or whatever you want to call it but primarily China and Russia let's say uh it's very difficult because there's there's no there's no trust basically there can't be any trust which is unfortunate and Chinese she was making an appeal to to to their you know to to both of them I suppose to the Chinese to to from their perspective the Chinese were obviously on board with this and they're appealing to the Americans to get on board as well to to do whatever we can to make sure that uh conflict doesn't erupt between the two of us because it would be very bad for everybody um and that underlying the fact that it's a very difficult situation um obviously see a lot of not a lot of trust. Uh a lot of backroom deals going on and um it's just you know when there's when there's this history or uh history of of uh animosity between two countries like that uh then well how do you how do you make sure that things don't go par-shaped? You know what I mean? um recognizing the fact that there's, you know, there's elements within the US government that Trump doesn't have uh control over uh that could act uh independently. Um again, you'd have to appeal to Trump to look you were that this kind of thing can happen. Um do you really have a handle on everything going on in your country and the different elements within your government that may be able to act independently of your wishes?
So, super difficult, super uh And I think ultimately you know given those circumstances both countries would just you know could be forgiven and I think they probably this is what they are doing or have been doing if they just go look let's just work out what we can on trade and all that kind of stuff and and mutually beneficial stuff but in terms of uh this whole you know let's really get into the meat of the matter and let's work out you know uh how we're going to um resolve this potential potial conflict that could arise between us. You know, let's not bother with that. It's just way too complex and >> let's just leave it as we'll say nice things to each other. We'll do what we can to, you know, to smooth things over, to deescalate where we can, but ultimately we have our plan to um to win. We have our plan to be the best, to be the greatest country. Uh >> and Rubio says China has exactly what they such a plan themselves.
>> China China has that they seem to >> it again it gets back to the back it gets back to the difference between a dominant power and a rising power.
Dominant power uh tends to be in a position where they have they were a dominant power or they were uh a country that you know obviously had a lot of economic political military influence whatever and rose to the top. But once they get to the top, then they're in a position of holding on to it. And generally speaking, they can kind of tend to stagnate a little bit and not ultimately not really be justified in sitting on top of the pile, you know, like sitting on the lid keeping it all down like it's all mine basically, you know, sitting on the pile of gold and it's all mine. Get everybody get away cuz I earned this.
Whereas the dominant or the rising power uh doesn't have that isn't coming from that perspective. They're basically just growing naturally um and becoming more more powerful more powerful and more dominant as a result of just natural um natural proclivities or natural their their natural talents basically.
>> Yeah. They don't need wars to do it.
Whereas whereas the holding power >> the holding power has to well has to keep that other one down. So the actual the aggressive the the aggressiveness in that dynamic comes from the dominant power and that's in that in the reference to was Athens and Sparta. Basically >> Sparta was dominant and aggressive and Athens was rising.
>> Yeah. And they see so it's you see somebody coming to take my stuff. It's like I'm not coming to take your stuff you know. I'm just doing what I what's in my capabilities to do which is like in terms of China is >> is to grow and to expand its influence and expand its economic and military reach and all that kind of stuff and it's within every anybody else would do that in that situation. It's not doing anything aggressive against anybody.
>> Exactly.
>> Uh whereas but the problem is that America sees that as uh as being acting against America because if it keeps doing that then it's going to whittle away at my dominant position. So it is a trap in a certain sense and it is something that uh yeah you have to really um >> proactively stay pro proactively delve into and discuss and and you have to have different mindsets but and yeah it is a trap. Uh it's it's it's a difficult trap. It's a thorny issue and it's not something that's easily solved and that's why I think that both of them are just going to continue on doing what they're what they're what they have been doing. Um there's no real love loss between them. Um, and it'll play out however it plays out, you know. Um, but again, America is by definition in the weakest position because it's trying to hold on to uh an increasing increasingly untenable global dominant, you know, superpower policeman of the world position that that it had before that it could actually hold and exercise. But now it's become increasingly difficult for it to do that. But it's going to keep trying to do it. And if it keeps trying to do that, then it's going to be the architect of its own destruction.
So in that sense, it's a trap as well.
Um it's not just a trap in the sense that the this trap isn't isn't that it can cause a conflict between say Russia or America and China, but rather it's a trap for America. It's uh you're kind of hoisted on your own petard. And that's always a trap whenever people find them hoisted on their own petards. It's it's basically they become the because of their actions and their attitudes and their inability to change their their attitudes they um they end up being the architect of their own downfall >> and it just plays out over and over again throughout history and even in human relationships and all that kind of stuff. So um >> yeah I don't see any way you can avoid it. you know, seems to be set on that course. And it's not even that's a course that like I would argue that it's not actually avoidable.
>> Yeah, it's it's built in.
>> Yeah, it it >> it's no more avoidable. It's no more avoidable than it was ever avoidable the hundreds of billions of times it's happened over and over again throughout human history.
>> Well, there are a couple of times when it didn't happen, but maybe it's well, the exception is true of the rule. And one of them is the British Empire being supplanted by the American one.
>> Yeah. Yeah, >> the transition there between rising and declining happens, sons clash.
>> But there's a lot of asterisk to put their similarity uh crosscultural, cross economic ties already by that point.
>> Yeah. And also um yeah, that was probably the most that's probably the most important thing in terms of them being all cut from the same >> China as a whole of the world. Yeah.
culturally, linguist, >> and also the Brits didn't really didn't really have the ability to do anything about it, >> you know. Um whereas in this case, China does.
>> Yeah.
>> The Brits didn't have any they didn't have the ability to do anything about America becoming the global dominant power at that time, you know, 20th century, end of the 20th century, middle of the 20th century.
>> The Brits didn't have anything to do and they were also they also acquiesed in it. They were happy enough to do it because they it was a quid quit pro. It was kind of like a Um whereas China does have the ability to defend its right to continue to rise >> and influence >> um and that's that's the difference.
Yeah. Um, but all this talk of America being not that not that G actually said the word clinging power, but all this talk of America being on the Wayne and stuff is all nonsense, especially in relation to China because Jesse Wat is his name Waters. Jesse Waters in Fox News.
>> Yeah, >> Jesse has it all figured out. And here he is. Have a listen.
>> Trump checks China. Uh, the Chinese have made major inroads into the American restaurant scene. Uh, but get this, there are over 20,000 McDonald's, Taco Bells, and KFC's in China, and they're growing every year by the thousands. And once the United States gets fast food into a country, that's it. fried chicken, Big Macs, chalupofas. They start listening to our music, watching our movies, they start marrying our women. I'm just kidding. We don't allow that. But that's American colony. We got them hooked. And it's pretty much >> um the Chinese have a history of expanding and then collapsing. Expanding and then collapsing. So Trump, the strategy is ride around peacefully as they expand alongside them peacefully.
And when they collapse, you feast on their carcass, >> on their KFC bones.
>> It's like the Opium Wars, only as trans fats this time.
>> Mhm.
>> Oh my god. Yeah. The part about the rising cycles, Jesse, is that those cycles happened over four centuries. The US hasn't even existed long enough for one full cycle. So, yeah.
>> Yeah. But it's he says China is by definition by his definitions there is already an American colony. It's over.
>> Yep. We won.
>> So you see >> we'll get their kids fat. The problem is the Chinese would maybe I don't know if the Chinese listen to Jesse Waters or Fox News but obviously a lot of Americans are getting that and um so you can imagine that and Jesse Waters would be a big Trumper and would be representative of the Trump base supposedly the messaging that's been given to Trump's Trump's base and if they listen to this then they're like yeah we need to talk about theities crap again. You know what I mean? Uh because this guy who apparently speaks for your your your base uh is talking about feasting on our carcass.
Uh so I'm not sure. Yeah, >> I think we need to talk about it again about and that we do need to uh try and prevent the kind of thing that Jesse Waters is talking about happening there actually happening. Um although he did say that there will be no he did Jesse Waters is saying that there'd be no you know American military action to precipitate the collapse of China.
rather it would be McDonald's and KFC that would do the do the job >> do the heavy lifting >> do the heavy lifting colonize them and then just wait I don't know you'd have to do an estimation of the of the dynastic cycles in China and whether you could call the the current era like especially let's say beginning of the I don't know when you put it back to you probably have to put it back to just past 26 30 years maybe >> that's the beginning of a donastic cycle and those donastic cycles last quite a long long time so Jesse you're going to be Chinese are going to be eating a lot of KFCs and a lot of McDonald's. Uh, and you're not going to be around whenever that next collapse comes. You're you're not going to be doing any feasting like if you're waiting on that, you know. Um >> Oh, that was funny. That was super funny. It's it's like he kind of he it's like Trump. He gets the concept dynastic cycles.
>> Yeah.
>> But it's totally garbled. It's too short term. It's No, dude. It's like it's like KFC. It's, you know, there's no calories to it. Mhm.
>> Um and it'll you know >> and it's not >> [ __ ] you [ __ ] your thinking in the process >> wrong to say that uh you know maybe something along the lines of a dynastic because that's what um oh god what's his name uh Turin >> Peter Turchin what he was talking about where the the dynastic cycles and uh historical cycles have been increasing in terms of their frequency. So it's not while in the past it may have been you know hundreds or uh decades or hundreds of years uh technology has sped up the process so that you know they're not necessarily wrong to say that you know they could see a the coming to an end of a dynastic cycle within their lifetime. they're wrong in and in in the fact that that they they don't know these things explicitly. So, so they're not they're not right because they they're intuiting something.
They're right because they're stupid and and also wrong because the collapse isn't going to be coming from the the rising power, but from the ruling power.
>> Mhm.
Right.
>> Which again brings us back to KFC ruins your brain.
>> Diet Coke >> and Diet Cokes.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. So the question the real the question here is um yes this is just a a grandstanding kind of show Trump mainly motivated by Trump you know although she's going going to America apparently in September. That's pretty much uh confirmed. And Trump's going to lay on the the KFC and the McDonald's for him.
I suppose he'll have a that'll be that'll be served at the uh at the dinner they have.
>> If they can get the new ballroom built, they'll have they'll have >> Big Macs and >> Uber Eats Uber Eats Big Macs. And um Trump AI will love it. Of course, he'll get a taste of that freedom and he >> he won't want to go fall down and be like I defect. Please. I now realize how wrong I've been. Um, >> they've been holding me hostage this whole time. Please let me >> um, yeah. So, Scott Bessant actually said something. I mean, you know, it's all of a piece this obviously as we know the the whole China, it's about that um grand geopolitical game, you know, to maintain America status as the global hedgemon.
That's what Iran is about obviously and it relates to China. um Scott Bessant um said this um in in the aftermath of the the Chinese meeting.
>> G now the only binding constraint is our export facilities. We're going to be building more export facilities. We're going to be ramping up in Alaska, which is a natural for China. And given what's going on in the Middle East, we think that not only China but countries all around the world are going to look to diversify away from the Middle East for more stable source of energy and what better place than the US. But the idea of starting with 30 billion by 30 billion that both both sides can designate again for non-critical areas and areas that we're not trying to reshore >> blah blah. Yeah. So basically uh given what's going on in the Middle East. Yeah.
>> What's going on in the Middle East? Oh that war you started. Okay. We think that not only China but countries all around the world are going to look to diversify away from the Middle East for more stable energy source of energy, more stable source of energy. And what better place than what better place than the US. It's obvious. So it's all very contrived. you know, uh, it's obviously the, you know, the Chinese know that's what that's what the Americans Americans Trump's game plan is to, uh, >> to make as much of the world as possible dependent on uh, American energy and make them all compliant nations. You know, I mean, previously they were compliant uh, via American quote unquote diplomacy uh, or politicking and also military enforcement. uh but because uh that's not really possible anymore because again the rise of Russia and China militarily they can't force the world into a subservient position through primarily through military means means or and therefore soft power means because soft power is downstream from hard power. Um then the next best option is to uh make them all subservient via reliance on America to as the greatest extent possible uh on America as an energy uh their energy source. And if that means blowing up >> the Middle East >> other energy sources >> that those countries relied on >> uh then so be it. That's what we're going to do. which is why which is the real reason why why Iran why they attacking Iran and you know and that's another question is if that's going to kick off again it looks like again there's been so many back and forths um there's a lot of movement air corridor um delivery and you know what they call them cargo planes and stuff milary military flights flying what they call an air bridge across uh across Europe and the Middle today um and yesterday past few days uh Times of Israel a few other people are talking about it um >> do we know where they're where they're landing >> who those deliveries >> yeah in Israel and Middle Eastern countries Gulf states >> and and Europe obviously coming from the US to Europe and then from Europe on over into uh the Gulf States uh Israel and you know all the all the ones I've been doing so far same same ones. Same ones that that that they landed in when they prepared the when they before they before they launched the last one. Uh there's nowhere else for them to land.
>> I thought some of the Gulf ones were unusable at this point.
>> Well, maybe one or two, but uh yeah, times of Israel here as as Iran talks stall Israel and the US prepping to renew war as soon as next week. Report.
>> Mhm.
>> Commandos could be put on the ground to extract nuclear material, >> which we heard. US officials to New York Times seniority official reportedly says fighting would last days to weeks to months to years to generations.
um one somewhere somewhere in there. Um and then there was um where's the Oh, yeah. My one this is an alternative I suppose.
Who knows what the actual plan is and if there is an actual plan. But then this is from saggraph. Trump officials tell the UAE to seize crucial Iranian island um US wants the Gulf nation to increase role in war after realigning its alliances in the region. Yes.
tell the United Arab Emirates to get more directly involved in attacking Iran and thereby get your own ass kicked and take out, you know, Emirati oil oil supplies out out of the equation and then, you know, expand the war, you know, have have it, you know, have it do what everybody thought they were going to do this time uh this time, do what they were thought every thought they were going to do last time, which is, you know, or thought that might happen or were saying that might happen last time, which was that the whole thing would, you know, really blow up and you'd have a lot of much more serious destruction of uh oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East. Um but Trump would like to involve the Gulf States more directly so it's not kind of a portion, you know, share the blame basically. He doesn't want to look like America caused a massive global economic energy crisis um all by itself. uh would like it to be uh a war um like to turn it into or transform it into a war between Iran and its Gulf state neighbors and then America can say now children >> you all need to stop fighting >> and it will be worse in results so people would forget what started it >> so basically do what you did in Ukraine but in the Middle Yeah, it's kind of like Yeah. And obviously it wouldn't be just, you know, that would all be it's kind of helping.
It's it's it's a it's straight out of the kind of kind almost proxy. It's a proxy war proxy war playbook, right? Um where you start a war between two or initiate or encourage or provoke a war between in in one way or another between two uh two or more uh states. And then >> and then leave from behind as Obama termed the Saudi Yemen war. Yeah.
>> 2015.
>> Yeah. You come and you come in.
>> Fly all the weapons they need. Even the air pilots, whatever.
>> And then let's supply all the weapons and tell them tell them that they need to stop fighting.
>> Here's more weapons. Stop fighting.
Here's more weapons. Stop fighting.
>> Here's personnel. Stop fighting.
>> Yeah.
>> I I saw you posted that, so I went looking for that the article so I could read the full thing. They changed the title for interestingly the telegraph title for that link is now Dubai's 9/11.
>> How the UAE is at the center of a new Middle East. And they're obviously doing like they're encouraging UAE. Go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah. Right. Yeah. You're rising power. You can take on Iran. This is UAE whose population is 11 million. Only 1 million whom are Arabs.
>> Yeah. 10 10 million next.
>> You can do it. Go on. Put on your boxing gloves there. Take on a ram. Yeah.
>> And it's interesting that UAE was the one was revealed that UAE was the one that actually in, you know, was more directly involved in the last round and they were more belligerent towards Iran and they have >> that emerged recently. Yeah.
>> They allowed the Israelis they got some David's uh David's thong um air defense systems um David Thong. It was modeled on the biblical David's thong. Yeah.
>> Yeah. They have they have like sculptures of it, you know.
>> Is it is it Lacy >> designs? Well, yeah, it was. Yeah. And so they use that in the design of David Sling. David Sling >> um cuz it would provide some biblical, you know, biblicality uh to to Israel's defensive and offensive operations. You know, like Yahweh would be with them >> if they used that design for David's thong in their David sling. David Schlong.
>> Should call it David Schlong.
>> I I >> And they should change the shape of their miss their defense missiles.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> I'm going to ask Grock to make me a picture of that.
that article in the Telegraphs. I would like to think this is you remember we were saying last week that often the headlines are really a wish list of what the US would like to see happen >> or Israel as the case may be. Um um the article goes on to say that um the longer this is going on, the standoff in the straight of whom was the more time the Emiratis have had to reflect about their place in the world, their place in the Gulf, who is a friend and who is not. They are looking at things in pretty stark black and white terms of friend of foe. Anyway, the point on being made is that the UAE is saying, "Right, we've had an existential moment there and we're going allin with the United States >> and Israel >> and Israel." But the person saying that who I just quoted is Barbara Leaf, a former US ambassador to to the UAE, telling that to the New York Times. I I wonder sometimes like if you're the UAE and you've just had that, do you really see that? If you're seeing it in such stark terms, I was hoping eight weeks ago that the stark terms they were seeing it in was, "OMG, we need to seriously reconsider our relationship with the West, not to double and triple down with it.
>> They have no choice."
>> So, I'm wondering if this is more like this is what we want the UAE to do >> than the reality of >> they have no choice. Those those those Gulf States are all basically um Israel late >> 10 dictators. The UE especially though >> they're Yeah, they're all to large.
Yeah, especially the UE. What do they call only fans this time?
>> Yeah.
>> Oh, speaking of and it it does get to the heart of it. So the Israelis proudly announced last week, yeah, a few days ago that Netanyahu had made a visit to the UAE during or just before during this during the shenan marching.
>> Um, and as is customary in the Middle East, when that happens, the country in question denies it.
>> Iran used to do that before the revolution.
>> Um, whenever Bengurian or whoever Golden Mir would visit. No, no, no, he wasn't.
She she didn't come. Um but I don't think Israelis would have made made that up. So that's >> that does speak to how inshed and deep they are.
>> Yeah.
>> There's no no >> and Trump >> there's no reckoning for them.
>> Trump posted this on so true social uh yesterday I think.
Yeah. Um again you can read whatever you want into it you know. Um, first thing that jumps out at me is it's just badly worded. It's I mean, how do you how do you how do you get that wrong? Like cuz the phrase is the cam before the storm.
You just leave it as the cam before the storm, but it was the cam before the storm.
>> I mean, way to go to just mess up a kind of >> Yeah, >> perfectly simple, >> very well-known phrase, the calm before the storm. And then people could interpret it as okay, you're saying this is the CAM right now is the CAM before the storm. And the storm being that you're going to launch another round of uh bombings on on on Iran. Uh, of course, you don't know that's case cuz Trump posts whatever comes to his mind at any given moment >> or whatever boomer meme he sees that he good in that he likes, >> right? That he likes. So, it doesn't really mean anything. But it was the cam before the storm and now it's not.
It was the calm before the storm and all the little children were tucked in their beds waiting for Santa Claus to bring them the nuclear dust.
>> The nuclear dust.
>> Their their nuclear cocaine dust.
>> He can tweet as much as he want. They're getting bullied on social media by Iranian Lego videos. So, >> but the Yeah. Yeah. So if there's some kind of So he wants the UAE to get in there and seize Car Island or something like that.
>> Laval or Lavan.
>> Huh?
>> He wants UA Lava. I think it's closer than >> Well, any island do one.
>> Uh but the Iranians have been pretty clear about this all the way all the way through this this conflict which is now going on since what? February 28th. What is that? March, April, May. Two and a half months. um with a little break for Trump to go and get a wee bit humiliated in China. Um and he's gone home a bit pissed. He probably go he's probably gone home and he's digesting the whole situation, especially the the the chair thing as well. Don't if you saw the chair thing.
Um he's digesting all that and he's probably going to get angry and uh >> that his chair was made to be a bit lower.
>> Yeah. Even though it didn't look lower and uh >> it left cushion or something.
>> Yeah. So he's going to have to he's got some he's got his he's got some uh cred to restore. So he's going to >> put on his cranky pants.
>> Put on his cranky pants and boran. Um but the Iranians like all through this have been made very clear that they're happy for that to happen. like the Iranians like we've said this before and they have said it obviously um more or less um is that when America initsued this American Israel initiated this attack on Iran it was this is for keeps basically this isn't going to be from Iran's point of view they're doing everything possible to make sure that this isn't just some kind of a you know oneoff bombing campaign or a short bombing campaign that then American can renew you know next year or the year after whatever you know that you wanted this and now you're getting it and we're not leaving until we're done. Um that's pretty much what they've said. Uh this has to be the outcome from this from Iran and definitely for Iran it's not over. Uh obviously because of they're still um have a lot of control over the the straight up despite what Trump says.
Um and they're not letting go of that and they're still they're doubling down in all of their demands. Um in fact they released um well it was Americans put a new a new list of >> requirements today >> in response to last week's 14 points.
Yeah. To like five or six point five points today. Um shortened. But Iran actually it seems to want some kind of a grand invasion to happen like taking islands be the UAE or the Americans or whoever but ideally the Americans to to draw them in because you know they let them take certain islands or whatever.
Let them you know bomb sites here whatever but want them you know inviting them in. Come come closer. Come closer.
uh because they know they can ultimately am ambush them when they get in a particular position and and they know also that any appearance of US significant US casualties um would essentially be a defeat for America. Uh and that they would suffer much more than the destruction that they could inflict on Iran even reputationally, you know, uh like I said because Iran wants this conflict to be definitive. this is they want this one this this conflict this war that America started with Israel to be the last one.
Um so the five points US presented ran with five conditions slimmed down from 14. So no compensation for damages caused during the bombing of Indian territory. So no money for Iran at least none in the form of compensation for blowing up your infrastructure.
uh the 400 kg of nuclear dust to be shipped straight to the noses of CIA >> straight to Pete Heg Keg keg's breath's nose 400 kg enriched Iranian rehip from around the US only one active nuclear facility remain operational on Iranian soil >> per share probably no more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets to be released and a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon to be resolved as part of negotiations.
Now, obvious response to that is go [ __ ] yourself. Like, I it's ridiculous.
That's that's that that's not a serious uh set of negotiating terms. Let's say they know Iran uh you're not getting our restium uh one active nuclear power plant only talking about. Who are you to tell us how many nuclear power plants we can have?
Uh, no more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets. Screw that. You can keep it. And ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon to be resolved as part of negotiations. No ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon now and then negotiations happen on the basis of that. So none of those are they're all obviously unless they're all insane in the White House, but uh they're >> they want they've been put out. Yeah, there have been put out there knowing they've put out a list of uh conditions that they know >> Mhm.
>> Iran will not accept. So, it's a bit of a joke. Um, so yeah, wars imminent again for the 17th time. It's really going to happen this time.
>> This time.
>> Really, really, really. Just >> it's really watch Trump's true social to find out.
It'll be very clear. It'll be very definitive.
There'll be no more Taco Tuesdays.
But yeah, damage is probably already done. At least a lot of people are saying that it's very very hard to know uh whether any damage or to what extent damage has been done to the global energy supply um supply chains and supply routes and stuff. Um because there's a lag obviously um but waiting for reserves in many countries to actually hit rock bottom type thing and then you have to refill them and can you refill them and then you have actually a shortage. Right now there's no shortages cuz they're using their using their their supplies. It's like basically you don't need to rely on not to to the full extent you don't need to rely on on there being full unimpeded flow of oil and gas into to countries around the world because most countries have their reserves that they've been eating into and obviously to one extent or another depending on how much they can get. But as whichever countries go run dry first then for them that's a shortage and then that has knock- on effects cuz we're living in a globalized economy. Uh so already there probably will be some it could be mitigated. It could be you know minimal or limited if the whole thing was to end right now.
But if Trump uh sticks to his guns and with these ridiculous demands and Iran sticks to their guns, which is no reason to suspect that they won't, then the whole thing's going to continue on. And then that just pushes on the the lag gets well the the the the >> the gap >> the gap gets wider and the the eventual >> impact >> uh effect is uh yeah is is is greater and more more long-lasting. Basically every month that goes by or every week that goes by I don't know how much you can add on but every month that goes by where this continues on as well you can put that on to down the line maybe the end of this year into next year where there's no oil. Yeah, >> for certain countries and no gas or limited gas because it's not enough. It's not just about not having none. I mean, if country if a country has zero gas or zero oil, they're in trouble. If they have 25% of their usual stocks or then they're in serious trouble. If they 50%, they're in serious trouble. If they have 75%, they're in pretty serious trouble.
>> Yeah.
>> You can't survive on 75% of your normal usage. Something has to something's >> somebody's gonna suffer, right?
>> Yeah.
>> Someone in your country is going to something in your country is going to suffer. Industry, you know, uh end users, whatever.
So, you know, if say France starts getting 75% only get 75% going forward of its usual oil supplies.
>> Well, then at the consumer level, it means like 25% of the French population drives cars. You're not getting any.
Yeah, that's how it works, right? Unless everybody unless you impose co lockdown >> type energy lockdowns where everybody's encouraged to get on your bike >> to clap for the NIH.
>> Clap for the National Institutes of Health. Yes. Clap for Fouchy. Clap for Trump. Clap for oil. If y'all get out at 7 p.m. on a Thursday evening and clap, h the oil will respond to your appreciation of it and it will start to flow.
>> Clap for the oil workers. Clap for the tanker drivers.
>> Mhm.
>> I thought we wanted to end our alliance on oil and save the planet, though.
>> So, I'm confused. Should I clap >> or cheer?
>> No. Well, you have to make a decision.
What's more important, having your dinner or having a clean planet?
In fact, the planet would be cleaner if you didn't eat your dinner for a long time.
>> So, what does that tell you?
>> So, we have one less person.
Depopulation. Oh my god. You went there, Adam. Straight to depopulation.
>> It's not a conspiracy if it's true.
Well, I Well, >> it's not a conspiracy if I believe it.
>> Exactly. It's just fact. I was going to say it's not a conspiracy theory. If it's true and it's like, well, no, it can still be a conspiracy. It's just true.
>> Yeah. Um, did you see that Trump told um Brett Bear?
He he talked somehow he talked very quickly to both him and Hannity, I think. Oh, it was for Yeah, it was to Hannity.
We're doing this for Israel.
Yeah, I mean this this this kind of went viral on X anyway because you had a lot of people going, "Oh my god." You see, it's a gotcha moment.
He admitted it.
It's for Israel. We've been saying it's all for Israel, stupid.
Um >> didn't the State Department >> they Yeah. Yeah, >> confirm that. So, why would anybody be >> See, yeah, go ahead.
>> We don't need it.
>> We don't need it at all.
>> We don't need it at all. Fair enough.
>> We don't need it at all.
>> Make the case, you know, like why are we even We're doing it to help Israel and to help Saudi Arabia and to help uh Qatar and UAE and, you know, Kuwait and other countries, Bahrain.
>> It also helps China. And we're actually I told him today I said, you know, we're helping you and we're helping in another way because I don't think they want I don't think China wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either.
>> I said just don't go crazy. You don't need them having a nuclear weapon either.
>> What did he What did he say?
>> Well, he's not going to respond to much.
He's a pretty cool guy.
>> He didn't actually say it.
>> That's a good point.
>> I think he might.
>> What's he going to do? What a wonderful point.
>> You think he agreed?
>> Yeah, I think that was the impression. I don't think he wants him to have No, he would like to see it end.
>> Don't be making [ __ ] up like >> he's been he's been a good boy. It people like need to really listen closely to the kind of stuff that that Trump says or any politician says because and there's a good example of it there. Um he literally said Trump he Trump said G doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Uh, and Hannity said, "Did did he say that?"
And Trump's like, "No."
But I get the feeling.
>> You read between the lines.
>> I read between his eyes and uh I'm pretty sure that's what he wanted. So, just to be clear, he didn't she didn't actually say anything about Iran's nuclear weapon or whe they want. No, he didn't. I I mean it would be way better if like Hannity is always just sucking up the Trump and wants to you know snort the snort the nuclear dust as well. So um but way better I often think when I hear stuff like that reporters asking you know sometimes it's better when they're adversarial but those ones like especially with Trump uh it'd be way better if that if that wasn't a court of law.
>> Yeah.
>> Can you imagine?
>> Yeah. Um, so yeah, I called Mr. Donald Trump to witness stand. Okay. So, Mr. Trump, you say that President Z said that it didn't he didn't want Iran to have nuclear weapon. Uh, is that your is that your assertion? Yes. So, did you actually hear him say that? No. Did he in any way intimate that he didn't want Iran to have nuclear weapon? No. So, do you still stand by your statement that he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon despite the fact that he didn't say anything like that at all? Yes.
All right.
>> You've just purged yourself.
>> Witness is uh is going to jail. Um it's crazy. Yeah.
>> Yeah. Yeah. There's >> cuz obviously China doesn't care. I mean, the reality is China would probably be happy if Iran had nuclear weapon. That's the truth >> because it would just end the issue and make this place stable.
>> Iran's in their camp. Iran would be able to have a lot more cloud, a lot more influence in the Middle East. It would, you know, ensure it would protect China's whatever energy source >> energy sources from from the Middle East. It would calm things down in the Middle East. Not just that trying to get oil from Iran, but from other Gulf states, but it would make the whole thing it would would prevent America and Israel from doing what it has done to Iran so far, which they Scott Besson said it's bad for China. I mean, you had two things. You had his his energy secretary saying, "This is this is bad for China." You know, uh, basically they're going to have to look to us for for their energy needs. They're going to be they're going to be they're going to be dependent on us. We're basically taking away their their energy sources, their traditional energy sources, and forcing them to rely on us, which is obviously not good for China. And then you have Trump turning around and saying, "Yeah, well, we're actually helping China."
>> Yeah.
>> What are the Chinese men going to make of that? Like this is how you help us.
>> This is this is >> you [ __ ] over our energy, our energy suppliers >> trying to make us dependent on you so that you can like tighten the screws on us >> and call that helping us.
>> Yeah.
>> Who needs enemies with friends like you?
It's [ __ ] This This is why a structural look at what's going on. We try to model what the government is really trying for.
Short-term, long-term, doesn't matter cuz it a good model should work both ways. The headline you read that week >> should be consistent with what they seem to be going at long term, you know? So, you get the rambling contradictions.
It's good for China, it's bad for China.
China should want to help us do this, but actually someone else says, "Well, we're doing this to hurt China." So, they move away from their dependence on Middle Eastern and oil. So, you you get both. If you're relying on the agents, on the personalities, you'll never make sense out of it. Um, some of them are smart and they know more. Like Marco Rubio is steeped in what the actual long-term permanent state bureaucrats are plugged into.
>> Others are not. Trump, he's in between.
I mean, he's got a good he probably understands well he's been 10 years at this now, but his delivery is it's just all over the place.
>> Yeah.
>> Um he's uh >> like he blurted out to to Brett Bayer um this while he was still in China that the whole um thing about destroying Iran's nuclear sites was quote largely for public relations.
>> Mhm.
But this is a year of a year and six months undermined of his own messaging about how important it was, you know.
>> Well, he he I think he thinks that it's kind of bizarre. Yeah. Trump's he's not a politician, not a diplomat, so this is this is the problem like we've been saying. Um and he's bit of a narcissist and talks things up and is very concerned about his own image and his own appearance and his own reputation. Um, so he uses the tools, the the state craft tools and all that kind of stuff, propaganda, all that kind of stuff. He uses it, but he doesn't really understand it, you know what I mean? He's not doesn't, you know, he's he's a newbie to it, you know, and and he filters through filters it through his own uh >> ideas. Well, his own desire to to his own his own his own need for self-promotion, you know. uh when the personality when your personal personal needs are mixed up in it, you know, like your personal self-image uh is mixed up and it it all gets very complicated, you know, um cuz that's not usually the case, you know what I mean?
Um because it's very easy for historically for politicians or presidents or prime ministers, whatever, to I mean their their self-image, their appearance or the way they look is scripted for them. read this. Here's what you're going to talk to J about.
Here's what you're going to say. Here's what he's going to say more or less. And then we go home and that's it. Wear this suit. Wear this tie. Do this. Shake this hands person. Shake this person's hand.
Shake this person's hand. Go home. They don't have to worry about their their their their appearance. You know what I mean? They have to only avoid being screwed over and, you know, keep an eye on the there could be some kind of attempt to oust them or something within their own party or something like that, but and then they might look bad cuz they were kicked out. But that but in terms of while they're while they're actually in office, their own personal appearance isn't isn't an issue. Like it's all about diplomacy. It's all about just doing what you're told to do basically, you know. But Trump isn't doing that. Trump is is flying trying to fly his own course and is also very much concerned about how he appears. It's all on him. He has no backers. He has no nobody's he has nobody to secure. No system behind him that's going to secure his legacy uh on going down the line. He feels that he has to secure his own legacy. That's why that's thrown into the mix and it just makes it all very uh very complicated. But um but it's amazing that he can say that he can turn around and say uh that the whole Iran nuclear thing was basically just for public consumption.
>> Yeah.
>> Cuz he said well he said it recently.
He's still doing the same thing. I couldn't find it there, but he basically said um he sitting in the White House. He said uh yeah, he said one he said the same thing that he's been saying over and over again. Iranians are crazies.
Um and that they would uh they're trying they can't have a nuclear weapon.
Uh and that they and I think he said they'd use it in uh in the first hour or something like that. As soon as they got it, they would use it in 1 hour.
um which is obviously crass [ __ ] nonsense propaganda right um again it's obviously that's obviously for public consumption what's weird is that people have been subjected to this people have been paying attention to international politics geopolitics whatever the US you know the whole war on terror and all kind of stuff they've been subjected to that over and over and over again for the past 25 uh from various different sources particularly in the west mainly in the west and it doesn't matter they don't learn next time it comes around they believe it so when they like you know so as I posted the >> like the dolphins with bomb strapped to them >> they they will that one out for every single leader or shop they want to take out >> I did actually post >> Gaddafi Putin >> yeah bombing his own people weapons of mass destruction you Suicide Dolphins >> 25 minutes from attack. They're He's going to use it and as soon as they get a weapon, they're going to use it. It's nonsense. This is him on the left. So, him on the left saying basically what I just said there. Um of lunatics having they're lunatics having a nuclear weapon. I deal with them. I deal with them. I say it to them. I say, "You people are crazy." I deal with them. They talk differently. I said, "You're crazy. You're crazy people. You're nuts. You're not having a nuclear weapon." They think they can talk me into it and they're not they don't do very well with it, but they know how I feel. They can't have a nuclear weapon. They would use it within an hour after getting it.
>> Literally an hour as soon as they get it. I mean, so he talks differently to them, you know. He talks in like a Chinese accent, I think. You're crazy.
You're crazy people. Oh, you're crazy. I say >> he sounds like a cold Jewish monster. I called to Yeah, he does. Yeah, I called to >> What are you doing? You're breaking a buff.
>> In my last round of uh diplomatic negotiations with Iran, here is the transcript of the meeting we had with them. It's very short. Me, you crazy.
You crazy lunatics.
Iran. Silence. End of meeting.
Uh so that was that was the diplomacy that happened. I said I said to them in a funny voice, I said, "You're crazy.
>> You're so crazy. So crazy. Why are you so crazy?
>> You get nuclear bomb, you use it in 1 hour. Why am I talking to you in Chinese accent? I don't know. You're the only accent I know.
>> It's crazy.
>> This is literally my diplomacy. But >> sir, did you actually hear them say they would use it within 1 hour?
>> Yes.
>> Yes.
>> No.
>> No. But >> but I felt it.
>> Yeah.
>> I felt it from And again, the reason I put that up, if you put that one back up, the the one on the right, uh the picture on the right is again we're going back 24 years. Um, this was across the broad sheets particularly in the UK for some reason. Well, obviously cuz it was directed at the UK. Salam weapon weapons of mass destruction literally they claimed 45 minutes from attack.
Saddam is ready to launch chemical war strikes from Iraq at London and they would reach it in 45 minutes and people suck that [ __ ] up and then they sucked up similar types, you know, the same kind of stuff rehashed in a different form against various different other countries. uh Gaddafi, um Assad, Putin, everybody, anybody. Um bombing own people, nuclear weapons, chemical weapons over and over again. Obvious cross propaganda. And every time it comes up, people do not learn, despite the fact that they did learn officially that for example, B's mass destruction in Iraq was lies. Um Gaddafi wasn't bombing his own people. Um, Assad wasn't bombing his own people.
Um, but now we've got Iran nuclear weapon. One hour they'll use it.
Who they use it on? Don't know.
>> Yeah, >> they don't have it. Do they have again like in a court of law? What do you mean they use one hour? Bring that witness back up again.
So, they're going 1 hour after they they have the bomb. Now, can you define what you mean by have the bomb?
Do you mean like like literally putting the last screw in now? We have it.
What's What's your timeline here? Uh do you think they have a bomb?
>> Two weeks away. Two weeks away.
>> Two weeks away. So, in two weeks plus one hour, Iran is going to use use a nuclear weapon.
>> Uh by what means? Do you have any evidence that they have uh that they have developed the ability to miniaturaturize it enough to put it onto a missile and they have a missile that they would? Yes, we do. We have intelligence says that we do. Okay. And who are they going to use it against? I don't know. Anybody? Me?
You mean they What do you mean you mean me in the White House? Yeah. Yeah, they could do that. Surrounded by children.
Yes. Surrounded by children.
Uh so your your assertion is that Iran will use a nuclear weapon against the White House in 2 weeks and 1 hour from today.
Specifically when you are in the Oval Office surrounded by children. Correct.
>> Like I said they're crazy.
>> Correct. Like I said these are lunicks.
They're crazy. And also everything I just said is for propaganda purposes.
>> Okay. Thank you. witness the witness can go back to jail or to retirement.
>> Anyway, um >> did you see the um Iranian AI version of what happened in >> Q8? Yes, it was a bit over, wasn't it?
>> I mean, the part about what was the part? There was a part where they they did >> that the two F5s flew super low all across the Gulf.
>> Yeah. Yeah, that's probably >> the base and returned.
>> That's probably true.
>> Can you do that with one flight though?
I mean, >> not that far.
>> Okay.
Um >> that's probably true. But I think they uh probably >> But they put in something >> hyped up that they that it was those two F5s that shot down the three American >> weight. Yeah. Yeah. If that's what they're claiming. Yeah.
>> I think they conflated two events. There was a large strafing at least that the Americans have since acknowledged using some missiles but mostly Shahad type drones >> on the base. Um the shooting down of the three American F-15s.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh it was a separate event.
>> Yeah.
>> And the Iranians conflated the two.
>> No, but that that was officially reported. It was accepted that that that that those two F5s did actually and they didn't talk about shooting them down afterwards. So, we can assume that they actually made it back. It's only like 120 mi across the >> Okay.
>> across the Gulf um from Iran to Kuwait.
So, you could do a what 250 250 m round trip in a in an F5. I'm pretty sure um I'm pretty sure it's uh it's pretty pretty doable. Yeah.
So, um, >> still it's quite top gunny. Did you see it? We won't play it here. It's 4 minutes long, but on Press TV's X account, you can check it out.
>> Mhm.
>> Um, >> hadn't seen it.
>> It's like their AI reconstruction of the of the events of March 2nd.
>> Range Camp Buring. Brewing >> 554 miles. So, more than enough. Could do it twice.
>> Yeah. But it is truly Top Gun stuff because I mean presumably the narration was correct.
>> 1960s plane like >> could you is it that simple that if you fly under if you fly under 100 meters helps >> the Americans don't see Yeah.
>> helps.
>> Um in the reconstruction you see they they did detect them and they launched cruise missiles and they swerve to avoid them. I don't know about that but >> well I that was a bit weird to me as well because cruise missiles aren't really >> heat seeeking. No. Yeah. Cruise missiles are generally GPS, you know what I mean?
It's not they're not um maybe there is a maybe there is a H but they're not like anti-aircraft missiles generally speaking. You know, they're they're for kind of land attack, you know.
Yeah. Um, Trump in Beijing wasn't the only interesting international diplomatic event last week. Aragi, Iran's foreign minister, attended the BRICS pre-summit meeting that happens later in the year with the leaders, but the foreign ministers of bricks met in New Delhi um where he gave a interesting statement in English.
>> Mhm. um and noted afterwards talking to the press that a BRICS member state with a special relationship to Israel blocked condemnation of the US-Israeli attack against Iran in the meeting's final statement. That was almost certainly the UAE, I suppose, who joined BRICS last year.
>> That's a problem. If they're really so imshed with the West and are going down with that ship, they can't be in bricks as well. So, there's a sneaky game going on there. Yeah. So the outcome was that they failed to issue a a joint statement >> condemning the attack.
>> Well, that's why UA would be in there, >> right?
>> The fifth column, >> although it's obviously more than that, you know, um well, you'd like to think rationally they're hedging.
Um but now at crunch time, they've left OPEC. The signs are they're actually seriously going suicidal. We're all in.
>> Yeah.
>> Is the situation is so bad. Like Dubai, you you saw I saw it on your expos today like the the flights in and out of Dubai, which are usually a thousand a day, but down to a handful.
>> Mhm.
>> Still two and a half months later.
>> Um 90% of people there aren't from there.
It's a It's just a desert with a few coastal cities.
>> Mhm.
Yeah, Bricks is just still in embriionic stage sadly. Um it'll have to wait for but that maybe that's what it was for.
Maybe that was the plan for it. you know, it's not that it was meant to kind of rise up and become a a major uh a major international um political organization, but rather um just setting the setting the scene for a future date so it could come into could come into its own at a point where it was possible, you know, but right now with uh with so much still going on with the US and we have to wait until see what happens with Thusidity's trap.
>> Yeah.
>> And see how that pans out, you know. Um but something has to give. Somebody has to things have to change in a bigger way in a big way and then settle down into something new before Brexit could even uh really you know be the be the template for a new kind of order. But America has to stand down before that happens. A new world order.
>> Possibly a new world order, >> you might say.
>> Yeah, a new world order order wouldn't be bad. Actually, that's your conspiracy. You're your old school conspiracy theorist right there.
Uh, you need to update your datab banks, your databases, that new world order as a conspiracy theory, as a conspiracy term is no longer the case.
It's not new anymore.
>> No, because we want the new world order now.
>> Because >> Because the old world order sucks.
>> The old Yes.
>> The current No, the current world order sucks.
>> The current world order sucks.
>> So, we want the new world order.
>> Yes.
>> Nothing wrong with the new world order.
>> Well, >> it just depends on who gets to define it.
>> Yes.
>> Yes. So, I'm all for a new world order with the caveat that is >> certain people are certain people are excluded. Yeah.
>> Certain people with tiny hats >> from being involved in it with tiny hats and square blocks in their forehead.
>> H is that what those blocks are for? To protect their heads when they're wagging them against the wall. The Roman wall.
That's a Roman wall like >> Yeah, that's my favorite part about it.
>> Does it is that what the blocks are for?
like to protect your head cuz that's I mean it makes sense to me cuz it's dangerous like you see them all there the wall like that booming you just go a bit too far you'd whack your head you know so maybe that's what they did all the blocks for uh so you bounce off you safety first yeah and safety can't wear an entire helmet because Yeah people know you're [ __ ] >> yeah cuz then they and see the the little one.
>> Mhm.
>> On the the crown.
Um per Trump. By next week, we'll know the result of the Kentucky primary.
>> Yeah.
>> It's only noteworthy because it's Kentucky primary. So, we're talking here about not even the actual congressional vote.
>> This is >> for the seat for a seat for in the US House of Representatives. But you you probably noticed because it's Thomas Massie and the billionaire class, the Epstein class are trying to primary him, which means knock him out even just from running as the Republican candidate.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh later in the year in the midterms.
>> Wouldn't it be fun if he won?
>> It's the most expensive congressional race ever. And and it's a primary. It's something like $35 million spent >> trying to unseat him. It's amazing.
>> $35 million of shekels.
>> Uh often, not all of it, but yeah. I mean, it depends. I mean, is Miriam Adlesen, >> does she use dollars?
>> Those are she's Israeli born, I believe.
>> Wow.
>> Um >> I guess your point is >> Paul Singer, >> how many of How much of it isn't coming from someone of a special nation?
>> Yes.
are affiliated with.
>> Trump tweeted today he wants uh Lauren Bbert primary also.
>> Uh he's Yeah, that's it's just such a different MAGA 2 is very different from MAGA one.
I mean, you're talking here about the core of the MAGA caucus.
Marjorie Taylor Green's already gone. Uh Gates left when he couldn't be nominated as AG. So if they get Massi and Bieber, that's basically the core of the >> the mega >> the closest you get there.
>> They were the kingmakers. I want >> Rand Rand Paul >> in Well, he's in Cong. He's in Senate.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So as far as the House goes, then that's pretty much it. If he's gone, then >> three of those that I named, MTG, Massie, and Bert, they were the ones who forced the the vote on the Epstein Act.
For Trump, it's probably like personal at this point, you know. Well, I don't know. It's hard to say. We know his wife spoke out about it recently, but um you never know if he if narcissism is a is a core problem with him. Well, then they made me look bad, so >> get rid of him.
>> Yeah, it's ridiculous. Get on board. You know, >> he's a decider, so get in line.
It's pretty >> tail to the chief.
>> It's pretty stalines. No.
>> Mhm.
>> He's like airbrushing all the photos.
>> Yeah.
>> Of me and the crew from just a few years ago.
>> It's not like that.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's a bit like >> they're unperson.
>> The thing is >> Yeah. The thing is that's the way it it always has been. It's just um it was Trump's doing it in a more Trump has.
It's almost like having um the ways and means of of doing that uh that that have been used, you know, for every uh administration so far and within Washington DC politics in general, the the more covert subtle ways and means of doing it have been uh have not been given to Trump basically or have been removed from Trump. the ability to do that. So, he he's forced to kind of basically just be public about it, you know.
>> But, uh it's not it's not a joke. Like, you can't put it on Trump and say, you know, it's like Stalinesque or whatever, you know. Uh they were all doing it beforehand, you know. Uh they just did it quietly, you know. Um it was done secretly and quietly without >> Yeah. just unperson type thing, you know. Uh sens censored, you know, uh cancelled um quietly in in various different ways. Um whereas Trump doesn't really have the like I said doesn't have the ability to do that that way. So he and also he prefers to do it >> publicly. He thinks >> he's a showman.
>> Yeah.
>> But it assuming the vote more or less is counted correctly. It'll be an interesting referendum on >> Yeah.
>> Trump too.
>> Public opinion.
>> How this goes.
>> Yeah. I hope he wins. It would just be it' be good for good for Trump.
Give him a wake up call. Of course, he just like said it was rigged or something like that. Um, >> blame Venezuela.
>> Yeah.
Anyway, um, yeah. So, we'll have to wait and see. And we'll have to wait and see if they kick off another uh round of Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb this week maybe or who knows. We have to get past Taco Tuesday cuz Taco Tuesday is the big big big danger zone there. If if nothing happens in tackle Tuesday, you can you can be sure that it'll probably uh it's going to go ahead cuz Tuesday is the day that he tackles that he's going to tackle.
But if by Tuesday hasn't tackled, then >> the markets know.
>> It's wacko.
And if Axio hasn't published the latest insider peace plan.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. To count the markets, then you know.
>> Yeah. It's weapons go.
>> Who knows? Certainly, like I said, like we said before, Trump has taken strategic ambiguity, not through any real ability in a certain sense, but just by a function. That's that's why it's so convincing because it's a function of who he is. It's not strategic ambiguity is done like it's calculated and planned out and people do it, you know.
>> Yeah. Like they accuse Putin of.
>> Yeah. Super conniving.
>> Yeah. Um, but Trump just does it as a matter of uh as a function of who he is, which makes it all the more uh ambiguous. Uh, he is strategic ambiguity and it's stupid.
Anyway, so we'll have to wait and see.
But I think we'll leave it there for this week, folks. So, until we hope you enjoyed the show until next week when we'll be back with more stuff on whatever stuff has been going on. Um, have a good week.
>> See you next week. Thanks for watching.
>> Bye.
>> Can't stop the signal now.
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