You Keep Doubting This Bitcoin Rally [That's Why It Keeps Pumping]

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:03]Guys, right now we are in the middle of  what they call probably one of the most hated rallies in the market. And when I say  one of the most hated rallies in the market, this is what the current markets look like. And in  fact, when I look at the S&P 500, that is the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is now at all-time highs, right?  We are in the middle of a war. The oil prices are 30% higher than when the war started. We have  inflation which is moving up and what you are seeing is you are seeing a typical what we call a  Trump recovery which is this V-shaped recovery and this combination of the V-shaped recovery coupled  by the Trump sprinkle that it has got all over it is making this one of the most hated rallies. Now  one of the things that I know about hated rallies is that when you have a most hated rally these  rallies tend to last longer than anyone expects them to last. And right now we are in one of these  rallies. And you can see that the last time that we had one of these hated rallies was these. It  was a V-shaped recovery rally around tariffs.

[00:01:04]And that is this V-shaped recovery over here. And  you can kind of see what happened after that. So I want to talk a little bit today about the most  hated rally. The most hated rally is happening on the S&P 500. It is also happening on Bitcoin.  Right now we have a rally in Bitcoin. The bears are basically in disbelief that this rally is  going on for so long. The altcoin holders are also hating this rally. And the reason why the altcoin  holders are hating this rally is because the rally isn't moving to the altcoins. And so we have to  talk about it because when you have a hated rally, a hated rally could go much higher and much  longer than anyone can expect it. And that is really what I want to speak to you about  today because I think that is what is going to happen here. So when I get my viewers up on  the screen, we can then get the show on the road.

[00:01:57]All right, wakey wakey. Rise and shine. Another  green day in the bubbles. As I am saying, a hated rally. Everybody hates this rally. We will  talk about why everybody hates this rally. I think people just cannot believe. They are in absolute  disbelief that you are getting a rally. The war is not even over. The oil prices haven't even  reverted and the S&P is now at all-time highs.

[00:02:16]And it is not only the S&P that is at all-time  highs, right? It is the Japanese Nikkei also at all-time highs. The KOSPI back nearly at all-time  highs. Now, if you look at the KOSPI, by the way, for those of you who don't know, the KOSPI is the  Korean stock exchange, the Korean stock market.

[00:02:29]Look at this return from the 1st of January 2026.  That is the let's call it let's go directly to the 1st of January 2026, which is there. It was at  4,220. That stock market, the Korean stock market is up 50% since January. Now, I was looking to  buy this, but I couldn't find the right entry point. And so we are in a position now where  the markets are rallying and the majority of people are left sidelined. And that for me is  one of the most dangerous rallies that you can actually get. And the thing about this rally  is that this rally is so unprecedented and I say so unprecedented it is unprecedented even  under normal presidencies but under Trump they have this unique gift of creating these V-shaped  recoveries. You can see where he did it. He did it here when it came to the tariffs. Everybody  thought it was the end of the world and then we had that V-shaped recovery and it basically  melted the faces of all the haters. It happened over here as well on the 16th of July 2024. We  had another one of those dips and a V-shaped recovery. Trump is renowned for these V-shaped  recoveries and he is putting one of these in here.

[00:03:35]If this rally repeats what happened in the  previous rallies then every time it goes higher and if that happens we basically break out of  this channel which is by the way Henrik's thesis.

[00:03:45]Henrik's thesis is that we actually do break out  of this channel and that the S&P goes a lot higher right now and that is pretty much the base case.  So if you look at the actual stats you can see that the last 10 days have been unlike any other  10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P is up nearly 10% in 10 days, which is the  99.7th percentile of all returns ever. That is the first thing. Since 1950, there have been 20 cases  where the stock market has risen this much in 10 days. The general conclusion is that it is bullish  momentum thrusts. Okay, so what he means here is that what Randy reiterates, he says the S&P 500 is  up over nearly 10% in 10 days. Historically, this level of strength marked the bottom, not the top,  with one exception, which was the actual dot-com crash. So, we are in the midst of a very, very  violent and very, very hated rally. There is a lot of money that is left sidelined at the moment.  And the thing with money that is left sidelined in a stock market rally is that the stock market  generally squeezes the people that are sitting on the sidelines. And yeah and that rally is  actually spreading into Bitcoin. This Catrini basically says the following. He says the V-shaped  recovery is now burnt into the psyche of investors at least for the remainder of Trump's presidency.  Even a genuine undeniable catastrophe won't get sold off. Nuclear war just waiting in the fallout  to rip back to all-time highs. And I liked one of the comments that I actually saw here because I  think the comment was very good. It says here, "My great-grandfather always told me that you have  to buy the nuclear war dip." And there is a good reason for it because if it happens, you are going  to get destroyed if nuclear actually happens. But if not, then the markets are eventually going to  recover. So, you pretty much have nothing to lose and you have everything to gain. And I think there  is a good point here in this tweet to say that Trump is so obsessed with making sure that in his  presidency markets actually run that he will do anything to make sure markets run. That's exactly  what is going on now. So you cannot discount Trump and you cannot discount the V-shaped recovery.  Guys, if you are new to the channel, subscribe to the channel if you have been here for a while.  We are just about to start talking about Bitcoin because actually we are a crypto channel, believe  it or not. What I need you to do is to smash the like button. I see there are only 94 likes with  700 people in the chat. That is a bad thing. I want you to tell me in the chat, Hardis, maybe we  can run a poll here. How many when was the last time that you opened your MetaMask wallet? I want  to know in the chat when the last time was you opened your MetaMask wallet. And the other thing  that I want you to tell me in the chat is do you follow me on Instagram? Let me know in the chat if  you follow me on Instagram. If not, I think there is a link to my Instagram here. I am starting  to spread a lot more alpha and a lot more life stuff on Instagram if you want. You won't believe  what I am drinking. I am drinking hot chocolate that is made with protein milk. High protein milk.  Trying to increase my protein intake in the day.

[00:06:51]Very good. Very, very good hot chocolate with  protein milk. Nabro. Someone says Nabro. Nabro.

[00:06:57]What? Nabro to hot chocolate. Nabro to following  me on Instagram. If you don't want to follow me on Instagram, follow me on other platforms.  I mean, you have to give people options. You have to give people options these days. All right,  let's go back to the most hated rally of all time.

[00:07:18]And I think the most hated rally is basically  spreading into Bitcoin at the moment. And I want to show you why I think the most hated rally  is spreading into Bitcoin at the moment. But why we are not out of danger yet. Why we are rallying  and why this rally is so hated. The first thing is that you have all the four-year cyclists  and the naysayers who are basically saying, "Look, the four-year cycle isn't complete yet.  You can say whatever you want. The four-year cycle completes in October and up until October,  we need to be basically going down." Someone says, "I follow Ran on Instagram." People were following  me on Instagram when I was talking about my Whoop and how this Whoop is actually a random number  generator. It tells you you got 100% sleep. I didn't get 100% sleep. I can tell you for sure. I  mean, I woke up in the night. I went for a walk. I went to eat something. Still tells me I got 100%.  So yesterday, I have to show you this. We will go back to Bitcoin in a second. So yesterday, what  did I do? I was like, you know what? I am so over this Whoop thing. So what did I do? I went and I  put my Whoop on the table next to my bed. Okay, so I finally gave up last night. I finally took  off my Whoop, put it on the table next to my bed.

[00:08:29]And this morning I woke up and it tells me I  had 100% sleep performance. It wasn't even on my wrist. Okay, it is a random number generator. Let  me know if you have a Whoop and what your Whoop does. Otherwise follow me on Instagram. All right,  let's go into it. So the four-year cyclists hate this rally. And the reason why they hate this  rally is because according to them, this rally has to reject and we have to get another leg down  because as a four-year cyclist, you are basically saying, look, the bare market ends in October and  that is where we are going to be turning around.

[00:08:56]So they hate the cycle. They go on to CNBC. They  are talking about Bitcoin going under $50,000.

[00:09:02]This is the post from two months ago. Analyst  warns Bitcoin could plunge to $50,000. Even Fefe.

[00:09:08]So, you have James. I think the guy has lost all  credibility now. He is saying, "Look, we're going to 48,000." And hey, he may be right. And I will  show you how he may be right. But for right now, these guys hate the rally. Fefe too. Big respect  to Fefe. I think he missed this pump. And I think he is in the camp that this is a bare market  rally. By the way, if you don't follow Fefe, he does like a 10-minute update. Put a link to  Fefe's channel in the description. Because he does a very good 10-minute update every day. He  is very, very good. And he has called this market perfectly. He says this is a bare market rally.  Ben Cowen says the same thing. He says Bitcoin will remain in a bare market despite short-term  counter rallies. The hardest part of the midterm year is just not believing every single rally. So,  he is kind of saying, look, don't believe every single rally. And this might be a bare market  rally. We will talk about it. But the reality is that while all these naysayers are talking about  that, here are the facts. Two months ago, Bitcoin was at 60,000 and people were writing it off.  There was the quantum FUD, which is, by the way, still alive. Since then, Morgan Stanley launched  an ETF. Goldman filed for Bitcoin income ETF.

[00:10:10]Schwab opened Bitcoin spot trading wallets. $412  million flowed into ETFs yesterday. And the next Fed chair disclosed that he owns DeFi, Solana, and  Lightning Networks in his startup. There is a lot of hype here because the Fed chair Kevin Warsh did  disclose that he owns crypto, but it is less than 5% of his portfolio. Number one, and number two,  he doesn't hold it directly. He holds it in funds.

[00:10:32]Right now, though, Bitcoin is above $74,000 as you  can see. They are making a lot of progress when it comes to the quantum risk. The quantum risk is  still going to be there and they are making a lot of technological progress as to how to mitigate  the technological problem around the quantum risk. The problem with solving the technological  problem is it doesn't solve the real problem.

[00:10:58]The real problem is that when you solve the  quantum problem, you will get people to either migrate their coins to a new quantum resistant  Bitcoin chain or you will give people a new way to transfer coins through quantum resistant wallets.  The problem that you are not addressing is what about Satoshi's coins? And when I talk about  Satoshi's coins, I talk about the coins that are lost, where the keys are lost, where people don't  have access to the keys anymore. Inevitably with all the solutions that I've seen for quantum,  those coins eventually hit the market again, which means that you have an extra five or six  or 7% of the supply coming back onto the market.

[00:11:36]None of the technologists are solving the economic  problem. And the economic problem is that all of a sudden you've got a lot more coins to worry about.  But the good thing is that now quantum has become top of mind. Everybody is talking about quantum.  The developers are finally trying to fix quantum.

[00:11:52]And I think that quantum is quite a long way away.  Although there is this guy called Joshua Lim who is a very smart guy. He is a co-head of markets at  FalconX. He this was retweeted by Chamath and in this tweet he talks about how people are already  starting to hedge the quantum risk through puts and through options. So he says, "The first thing  to note is that long-dated put skew on Bitcoin is near multi-year highs, meaning it is relatively  more expensive to buy puts than calls. The last time this was elevated was around FTX in 2022,  which means that people are really starting to hedge themselves in quantum risk." Now, let me  tell you what the good and the bad thing is here.

[00:12:39]The bad is that as they are hedging they are  buying puts and as they are buying puts that keeps pressure on the market it gets the market to  go down. The thing is that if the trade unwinds if they find a solution for quantum and everybody  buys into the solution of quantum then the reversal of that becomes so much more aggressive  because people have to unwind effectively their short position because when you think about a put  it is a synthetic short position. That is what it is. You are basically taking an option to go  short which someone else has basically taken the other side of. So if they do find a resolve for  quantum which is basically what I think is going to happen then the position unwinds very much.  Someone says is this recorded. This is live. Hot chocolate with protein milk really good. Fefe  got so many Rekt recently. I didn't watch that.

[00:13:37]Someone says biggest bull run ever is here. I mean  it is at 74,000 and it is a hated rally. You know who else hates this rally? I will tell you who  else hates this rally. The altcoin holders hate this rally. You know why the altcoin holders hate  this rally? The reason is because if you look at the BTC Solana chart, the BTC Solana chart is  at the lowest point it has been in the cycle.

[00:13:58]And we will use Solana as a proxy for altcoins  at the moment. And so the holders of altcoins don't really like this rally. You can see it in  the Bitcoin dominance. We had a little bit of a spike in Bitcoin dominance, but Bitcoin dominance  is just chopping over here. Meaning that this price move isn't spreading to the altcoins. If it  was spreading to the altcoins, you would see the dominance chart actually start falling. You can  also go to Banter Bubbles and then you can go to settings over here and then you can go to currency  and you can compare everything to Bitcoin. And when you compare everything to Bitcoin and you  go onto the one month, you see that even though Bitcoin has moved, very few other tokens have  actually moved. I am reminding you now if you do use Banter Bubbles and you want to trade, you  can actually trade directly via the interface. You just click here, you connect your exchanges. Once  you connect your exchange, you can actually trade directly from the bubbles. It goes through your  exchange. You don't have to set up a new exchange account. It just means that if you are like at a  restaurant and you look at the prices and you go, "Oh, hold on a second. Let me just check what  is moving up," and then you see that Aptos is moving up and you want to trade it, just go  here and trade now. And then you can actually trade directly from the bubbles using your  exchange, which I think is a very cool feature.

[00:15:23]Okay, cool. So, a lot of people hate the rally.  Altcoin holders hate the rally. The four-year cyclists hate the rally. And I think, look,  there is the probability, and to be honest, this is the base case. The base case right now  is that we break down, and if we break down, we go to this 46,500 level. We will go back to  the chart. And I think it is pretty obvious here, right? You've got this bare flag formation,  where you go down, you consolidate up, you basically run out of air near the top, and then  eventually you break down again. And to be honest, I agree with MM Crypto where he says basically  it is on until resistance breaks and then it is invalidated. So if you want to get through this  then break the resistance. In order to break the resistance as I said a few days ago we have  to get through 78,000 and close through 78,000.

[00:16:15]If we do that then it is all hot air till 96,000.  Nothing else happens till about 90,000 or 96,000.

[00:16:24]So what do we want? We want this momentum.  And when I say momentum, I basically mean Michael Saylor. That is what I mean. We want  Saylor to take us above the 96,000. So let's talk about it. We want this to be invalidated.  The four-year cyclist will tell you, no way.

[00:16:47]We are going all the way down to this level at  October 2026. I know that you need to trust the charts and I know that everything else is just  speculation. So now we are in a very tricky place when it comes to charts because we are very  close to the top of the wedge here. I wouldn't be getting into longs at this level. Don't get into  any longs at this level. Nothing, not altcoins, not Bitcoin. But where you can take longs is  things that are opportunistic. So, in other words, like one place where I think I made a bit of a  mistake. If you look at Drift, Drift was hacked.

[00:17:35]And everyone wrote Drift off, but then they went  to Tether and they secured $150 million to repay people. So, these guys are beasts and they could  actually bounce back. I should have probably bought it at the bottom because at that point  there was not much to lose and if they recovered there was everything to gain. So one place that  you can buy is you can buy opportunistic things but otherwise I wouldn't be touching anything  until such time as Bitcoin actually breaks this wedge. When Bitcoin breaks this wedge over here  that may give a license to people. Hold on a second. We've actually broken this four-year cycle  thing. If we've broken the four-year cycle thing, there are a lot of coins which are destroyed  like Solana which cannot get above $90. So if this wedge over here breaks, hopefully it  breaks during the trading competition because that trading competition starts in 20 hours,  guys. Reminder, reminder, reminder. There is a trading competition. You can win $120,000. All you  need to do is you just need to sign up to Blofin, which is a non-KYC exchange. Just super easy  to sign up on a non-KYC exchange. You go here, you sign up, you use this link. Join the link over  here and then you can join the team and you can actually trade with us. It's the last day today  because as you can see, the competition starts in 20 hours. So, go and do it. Just put $200 in the  account. Maybe you win your share of $120,000.

[00:19:04]The reason why I think that this rally still  has quite a way to go and I think that there is a chance that we actually break through  the wedge is the following. Number one, the fear and greed has been suppressed for a  very long period of time and generally when the fear and greed has been suppressed for a very  long period of time that is when the market turns. You can see here the fear and greed was  suppressed for quite a long period of time. We did go a little bit down and then we went back up.  Generally, when fear and greed has been suppressed for a very long time and you can see that ever  since 2017 when this fear and greed goes back, we haven't been at this level of suppression on  the fear and greed. Just look at that. The fear and greed went down to eight. Whereas in previous  markets, it went down to 11. But it's not only about fear and greed. It's about how long we stay  down at fear and greed. So, not only did we hit a very low fear and greed, but we actually stayed  down there for a very, very long period of time.

[00:19:59]And that generally is not a period when markets  actually top. So that is the first thing that I want to point your attention to. Next thing I  want to point your attention to is the whales are buying and the long-term holders are buying.  You can see this chart over here from CryptoQuant.

[00:20:16]The green is what they call the big whale  orders. And if you look at the concentration of big whale orders, you can see that the big  whales are actually starting to accumulate.

[00:20:22]They've accumulated 270,000 Bitcoin in the past  30 days. The largest accumulation wave since 2013.

[00:20:31]That is massive. Next thing is if you look at the  long-term holder net position. So you have the whales and you have the long-term holders, which  are two classes of similar but different buyers.

[00:20:50]One are people that hold for long and one are  people that have a lot of money. You can see that both of the cohorts are actually accumulating at  the moment which usually marks bottoms. The next reason why I think this rally could actually  continue is because as you can see currently the funding rates are negative. Now generally  when the funding rates are negative people are net short and that position can unwind. It has got  to do with MicroStrategy. Also as Swissblock says, he says the Bitcoin risk index just hit zero  which means that there are no more sellers.

[00:21:32]The sellers are basically gone. Like the sellers  are out of the market. So going back to it what am I saying? I am saying my base case is that  we're going to get rejected at the 78,000 level.

[00:21:43]But there are counterarguments that say that  we could break through the 78,000 level. If we do break through the 78,000 level, I think that is  your license to go out there and you can basically buy the good quality alts, Solana, Hyperliquid,  etc. Also, if you look at this, it says stablecoin supply ratio is telling us that those waiting to  buy Bitcoin in October when the four-year cycle basically ends are going to be sidelined. 2026  looks nothing like 2022. Well, that was 2022.

[00:22:12]And you can see exactly what happened. So that is  something that you should keep an eye on. I mean if you look at the total number of stablecoins,  total stablecoin supply is now 320 billion which is the highest that it has ever been. And also  if you look at the Bitcoin versus VIX, it bounced perfectly on the upward trend line. Which  again usually gives us a good rally. So, right now we are positioned for a good rally.  I am not going to tell you that it's going to break the 78,000, but I am going to tell you that  we are positioned for a good rally. Someone says, "Bro, please drop the name of the site again."  I don't know which site he is talking about.

[00:22:59]All right, let's talk about who is driving  this rally. And again, why it is a most hated rally. Did you guys watch this Coffeezilla  thing? Coffeezilla basically also hates the rally. He hates the fact that MicroStrategy is  driving the rally. He has got a point. I mean, just listen to a little bit of it. It's  been compared to a Ponzi scheme. Either way, a lot of people are investing and talking about a  new product. Specifically preferred stock sold by MicroStrategy. You may know Michael Saylor. His  company is currently raising billions of dollars by offering something called Stretch. The company  uses the proceeds from those sales to then go buy more Bitcoin. There is always a question with all  of this financial engineering. I like to describe it like a perpetual motion machine. Black coffee  also dunking on Stretch, which is MicroStrategy's preferred dividend stock. Now, for those  of you who don't know how this works, basically if you buy Stretch, today you get 11.5%  and it's paid every single month. So, right now, Michael Saylor is using that instrument to raise  capital and he has raised $6.3 billion on that and that $6.3 billion is used to buy Bitcoin. Now, how  he does it is a very simple thing. He goes to the market and he says, "If you give me $100,000, I  will give you 11% a year and I will pay you this every month." Which is like crazy. How does he do  it? Well, he does it by either selling Bitcoin or by using the money that you pay him to pay other  people. So, it is like that's why the people name it as a Ponzi. The thing is technically it  is not a Ponzi and technically people can't ask you to pay it back because it is a pref and  it's not credit and preferred shares don't have a redemption. So once you buy a preferred share,  it never ever redeems. It's not credit. You cannot ask to get it back. So the big question is whether  this is a scam or it's not a scam. And I can tell you that the research that I've done says it's  not a scam for sure. It's very transparent and Saylor is telling the market exactly what he  does and the market is buying it. The only thing is that if Bitcoin doesn't keep going up at  11.5% every single year, eventually MicroStrategy has to eat into their stash to start paying  their dividends. Now, for the next two years, there is nothing to worry about because Michael  Saylor has got enough money to pay the dividend for the next two years. Question is, what happens  after that? And I don't think we should need to worry about that now. We can kick that down the  road just like we kicked the quantum problem down the road. But that is what's actually driving  this rally. Now, the ex-dividend date was I think the 15th. The 15th of April. Anyway, Bitcoin just  fell below 74,000. Is that right? We are back at 73,560. What happened? What happened? Bitcoin just  fell to 73,500. If anybody knows why, please alert us. My AI is still trying to read my voice note.  Researchers, Andre will tell us in one second.

[00:27:04]Yeah, Andre, we're listening. Iran's planned  Hormuz toll will be paid via Iranian banks. Okay, but the planned Hormuz toll is not happening.  I mean, come on, guys. You can't be jumping at things like that. All right, fam. A couple of  things. Number one, remember, please, if you haven't yet signed up for the Blofin competition,  today is the last day. There is a link below. You sign up for the competition. The other thing I  want to show you is I don't know how many of you have messed around with your MetaMask lately. Have  you actually been to MetaMask? Have you actually downloaded the app? I haven't done it for a long  time. And now I've started to mess around with the app. There is a lot that you can do on this app  that I didn't know. Like for one, you can trade stocks on the app. You can trade perps on the app.  You can do prediction markets directly from your MetaMask wallet. Right? So, I kind of think that  yes, I know we all had MetaMask wallets. Yes, I know we all been waiting for the airdrop. I don't  know if the airdrop is going to happen because I heard these guys are going to do an IPO. But I  can tell you it might be worth going to check out your MetaMask wallet because it is not that  old stale wallet that we used to see. It's like a whole ecosystem. Just go and check it. Maybe you  will just find some dust in it and you know that dust will be worth something. Anyway family,  I will see you guys again maybe tomorrow if something happens. Otherwise, I'll see you again  on Monday. Until then, trade well, my friends.