The Data Loves These World Cup Bets

[00:00:00]All right, thanks Mike. Before we talk about the World Cup final, I do want to touch on this third place game for a little bit here because you know, we got quite the game here between France and England two teams with high hopes to make the finals ultimately crashed out and this is a really interesting one because my model has a massive edge on England to win whether it's in regulation or you know, just to kind of take home the third place result, but that's based off a longer sample size from before this World Cup as well, right? Because the model doesn't want to just include the seven World Cup games. So you have to look at data before that. But if we just look at the World Cup itself, France has been by far the better team than England in terms of expected goals numbers.

[00:00:46]France has a plus 9.2 expected goal differential while England only has a plus 4.2 expected goal differential over their seven games. Now England does make up for it a little bit by facing a harder median schedule in those seven games.

[00:01:00]They faced opponents that rate about 42 Elo more difficult than the opponents France faced as a median. But again, that's not enough to make up a five expected goal difference here. So it depends on what you trust the push and pull between a larger sample size and the more effective sample size of the World Cup games themselves. Of course France also got the benefit of playing a Norway team that was playing some backups here. But I am going to go with my model here and I am going to take England to uh you know, to win whether you want to take it in regulation or you just want to take them to win as the third place team overall.

[00:01:37]So to finish third, I think that's the the prudent play here when you look at the larger sample size especially things like World Cup qualifying where England actually had a larger goal differential per game than France did when you remove the bottom team from England's group because England had a larger World Cup qualifying group than France did. So also like it to be high scoring. My model does adjust for the fact that the third-place game is traditionally high-scoring, and it still likes it to be high-scoring. So, if you want to sprinkle some exact scores on England at some high scores, like a 2-1 or a 3-2 or a 3-1, uh my model is showing value on those as well. So, my pick for the third-place game, England to finish third. Sprinkle some high, uh you know, some higher-scoring England results as well for 90 minutes.

[00:02:21]>> Speaking of your model, Dr. Nick, it was well-calibrated for the semis, picking Argentina and Spain to advance. We talked about it, you know, throughout the show, kind of the the magic, the luck, the officiating perhaps being on the side of Argentina. The fact of the matter is they pulled so many rabbits out of their hat late in this knockout rounds and shown that they have It depends really in the eye of the beholder. Are they a never-say-die kind of team that is clutch exactly when they need to be, or are they fortunate and they're on borrowed time? Where does your model come down on this this final?

[00:02:53]And also, just from a narrative perspective, do you think that there's some noise in the model because they keep doing things that are improbable late in matches?

[00:03:01]>> Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because, like you said, Argentina, so many comebacks, so many late-game winners.

[00:03:08]But, in the end, my model actually still does have value on Argentina here.

[00:03:13]Uh in the 90-minute uh money line, for example, uh it has Argentina at around 31%. You can get, you know, around some plus 250s out there. So, that would be some value on Argentina in the 90-minute money line. And I think for me, personally, that's a decent hedge because I have a future on Spain to win the World Cup. So, I might sprinkle a little bit on Argentina uh on the 90-minute money line or on in this case, at least, because I have uh you know, to win the World Cup for Spain, I would then bet just on Argentina to win the World Cup because that would translate to some value there as well. But, uh you know, I I think this is interesting because um inter-confederation games, right? So, we have a CONMEBOL versus a UEFA match-up here. They do tend to be a little bit higher scoring than non you know, so intra-confederational games.

[00:04:03]So, that little bit of lack of familiarity does tend to open things up a little bit. Also, I think Spain is the type of team where, you know, I do have them strongly favored even though I do have some value on Argentina, right? I still have Spain winning this around 58% of the time. But, if Spain gets up, right? They're not going to bunker like England did against Argentina. They're going to continue to play their game like they did against France and try to get that second goal. And at that point, if they get that second goal, Argentina has to throw everything.

[00:04:32]So, this game could open up in that regard. So, you know, I would look at potentially some high-scoring games here as well. And if we look at World Cup history since 1998, it's actually interesting on the 90-minute result, the World Cup final has on average, when you compare year by year, right? So, 1998 final to 1998 other knockout games just in 90 minutes, on average through those seven World Cups, the World Cup final is just a tiny bit higher scoring than the other knockout games. So, I don't think we get like a discount for an under here. So, if anything, I would lean towards an over. But, overall, my play would be just kind of take Argentina as a little bit of a hedge since I have plus EV on that. But, mostly, I'm just going to ride with my Spain future and then look to maybe make some live bets here, maybe some high-scoring bets as well just in terms of correct scores. But, I want to see where the market evolves cuz we're still so early in the week compared to where it settles for this World Cup final.

[00:05:32]>> You mentioned the differential between the Spanish tactics and what England did parking the bus and hoping to hold on.

[00:05:37]Obviously, it burned them. If the Spanish side goes up 2-0 in this match, what number would you need as our last question here on the pod from a live betting perspective? Let's say it's still in the first half, it's a runaway early for Spain, it's 2-0. What number would you need for Argentina to be enticed to go ahead them live on the live market?

[00:05:58]>> Yeah, well, again, as a as a Spain futures better, you could pretty much take any number because it's going to be so long, right? It's going to be 15, 10, 15, or whatever it is, uh eight maybe, but uh yeah, I I think, you know, if you have a Spain future, you could take almost any number you want if you're just looking to hedge. Now, if you're not a Spain better, um and you're actually looking to try to make a plus EV bet here, uh I think it would need to be pretty long. I have Spain again 58% to win this, and if they go up two nothing in the first half, let's say, or or early in the second half, right? Spain was my my favorite team coming into the tournament. I had them as the strongest team in the tournament. They have a plus 2.4 uh non-penalty xG differential better than Argentina, and that's while facing a schedule 82 median Elo uh higher than Argentina. So, uh they've played a much more difficult schedule than Argentina as a whole through the seven games, and still have a better goal differential.

[00:06:53]So, I think I would need something pretty substantial, uh and it depends, you know, it it To win the World Cup, right? Argentina would just need to make up two goals, get it into extra time, and see what happens from there. So, you're probably talking something like a plus 758 to one at minimum uh that I would need because I have Spain as such a stronger team.