تكاليف الاقتراض طويل الأجل في أميركا تقفز لأعلى مستوياتها منذ 2007 - الأسواق الأميركية

Ajouté : 2026-05-26

[00:00:01][Music] Welcome back. As we discussed earlier, the yields on long-term US Treasury bonds, specifically those with a 30-year maturity, have jumped to their highest level in decades, or more precisely, since the global financial crisis. This is what I'm talking about. Here, we're referring to the yield, the nominal yield, which is what we see on the screen right now. We're talking about approximately 5.19 or 5.2. We have n't seen these levels since 2008, and this has significant implications. There are many reasons for this. The main reason is the lack of demand for these bonds. Their prices are falling, and their yields are jumping.

[00:00:52]Hence, these figures we're seeing here. Is the reason inflation? No, it's inflation expectations, or the percentage of inflation expectations included in the yield. What we're seeing is a very small percentage. Why are we seeing this now? Because the real yields of the inflation- protected securities (or TIPS) are very close to these levels.

[00:01:22]This means that inflation expectations aren't high; they're actually close to the Federal Reserve's target levels. This is why this news has significant implications. Sass, I'll ask my guest about it. He's joining me from Pennsylvania, Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide Financial. Welcome, Mr. Hackett. We apologize for the delay, but Donald Trump was speaking. Returning to US bonds, crossing the 5% threshold, or even reaching it, has significant implications. Could you explain these implications now and how this might affect the Federal Reserve's decision, especially if we look at 30-year Inflation-Protected Bonds? We see their yields at 2.9%, while this one is 5.2%. The difference between them is barely above normal market inflation levels, close to the Fed's targets. Does this mean we've reached yield levels close to the neutral rate, which neither boosts nor hinders the economy?

[00:02:40]Thank you, Noor. I'm pleased to meet you.

[00:02:44]You mentioned, and I heard you say in the introduction, that the sell-off in bonds is driven by two factors. First, investor preferences, as they now favor stocks. We've seen institutional investors buying stocks aggressively and not buying or showing interest in bonds.

[00:03:06]This is a primary reason, but there's another reason as well. There are inflation expectations that have started to creep upwards, especially amidst the uncertainty surrounding the energy market and some of the consequences resulting from rising energy prices. Therefore, everyone expects inflation to remain high, and consequently, money is moving into stocks. That's number one. Second, the fundamentals indicate that inflation will rise, and this is what led to the selling. As for the consequences you're asking about, they are serious. Investors are now moving their money into stocks, away from bonds, which may keep returns high. This means that companies will pay higher interest rates: higher interest rates, higher energy costs, and higher inflation.

[00:04:02]Mark is talking about the idea that inflation is included in this. Does this also affect longer-term bonds? Isn't it limited to shorter-term bonds?

[00:04:19]We saw shorter maturities rise as well.

[00:04:23]About a month ago, we were expecting a cut in futures interest rates, and now there are expectations of a rise. As for the Fed, it doesn't affect longer maturities unless there is a quantitative easing program. Kevin Wursch, the new chairman, is fundamentally against that, and therefore the Fed will focus on wages, while longer maturities will be under greater pressure. And this, of course, means exactly what he is known for.

[00:04:54]Quantitative Renewal Workshops, thank you, and we apologize for the brevity of the interview, but Donald Trump surprised us today with this statement. Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide Financial, thank you very much.