Models Show MAJOR Storms Brewing... Tropical Cyclone & Flooding

[00:00:00]In today's video, we're going to be diving into the upcoming pattern and there is a whole lot of severe weather that we need to discuss happening across the eastern half of the nation over the next week. We're going to be talking all about that. There is some tropical concerns down there in the Gulf where we could see some tropical development take place and we also have some cooler temperatures working their way in which is kind of surprising. It's been like mid 90s every single day here uh in Virginia. But over time we are going to see that actually subside to average and then eventually even to below average temperatures very likely uh over time.

[00:00:37]Now we do have uh actually a developed tropical uh depression in the Gulf, the northern Gulf there. Uh and this is expected to become a tropical storm that will move kind of westerly along the Gulf Coast. We'll talk about that in a moment. The reason I'm bringing that up so early on is that we already kind of see the the the start of that right here. uh somewhere offshore of Florida is the low pressure center there. We can already see our jetream is sort of in a more uh ridge in the west, trough in the east orientation here as we've got some warmer air rushing up northward in the west and cold air filling in southerntherly there in the east. And this is where we have a cold front rolling through. Severe weather expected today for some areas here, especially in the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Of course, we'll talk about all these things throughout the video. Let's move this forward towards the kind of evening hour of today on Sunday, the 19th here of July. I can't believe we're this far into the month already, and this far into the summer. It's just amazing.

[00:01:39]Jetream is kind of all over the place.

[00:01:41]More of a trough in the east, more of a ridge in the west still, much like it was earlier this morning. A lot of moisture is underneath this jetream. I mean, the Rockies and four corner states here. Some of the plains seeing isolated and scattered thunderstorms. Midwest and deep south as well as the southeast and mid-Atlantic here. All seeing thunderstorm activity. Again, kind of the worst of it expected to be in this portion uh here nearby the Carolas and southern Virginia. Uh we do see this tropical system here. We will watch this kind of day overday. But as we head towards tomorrow on Monday afternoon the 20th, we see a more organized low very very close here to the coastline of Florida. And we could see that this is bringing precipitation to numerous states. Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana here, and this is just going to kind of continue to scrape westward along that coastline. So, you can anticipate a lot of precipitation in these areas uh due to this. We do also have some thunderstorm activity still possible here in the southeast corner of the nation. Some of it is associated with this tropical system, some of it is not. Uh but generally, there is precipitation around the southwest corner of the nation. also seeing some isolated and scattered activity still at this point as well. Uh looking at Tuesday here on the 21st, we get another severe weather event moving in as a low is present south of the Hudson Bay. We get this kind of cold front swinging down. This has a lot of Canadian and Arctic air with it. So, it is potent. It is very cool compared to the air it's moving into and very dry and that leads to a lot of instability. So, we get these thunderstorms roaring across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast.

[00:03:19]Here, we're going to discuss the Storm Prediction Center outlooks towards the end of this video. Of course, we also do see here this tropical low intensifying a little bit down to a 10 or a, 104 millibar low pressure system here uh definitely continuing to slowly move west. And that's important to note. is quite slow, which means that there could be more of a flooding concern as that heavy rainfall is sitting over the same areas for longer periods of time.

[00:03:47]Finally, by midweek, Wednesday, the 22nd here, we see it close to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama here. Um, and it might come on shore at this point. If it does, you can expect it to weaken quite a bit. And if it's a little bit more offshore than what this European model is showing, it might intensify a little bit more and have a little bit more precipitation to to go alongside it. So surprisingly uh it moving onshore is actually probably the best case scenario for everybody uh because it'll weaken uh pretty quickly. But if it stays on open water, you know, it could continue to stay at the current intensity or even intensify further. Uh Wednesday the 22nd here is another day where thunderstorms and potentially severe weather is possible up and down the eastern seabboard, especially for the mid-Atlantic northward though. Uh we can also see that the west, especially the mountainous west, has kind of picked up the intensity of a lot of this precipitation that is around uh over these western states. Looking even further into things Thursday the 23rd, we can see some tropical moisture still around uh here for Louisiana, Mississippi, but it has weakened as far as the low pressure system is concerned.

[00:04:55]Still a very very intense trough here in the east by Thursday. That's mostly happening over the course of the next few days into the second cold front that we see swing through Tuesday into Wednesday is going to give away to even cooler conditions. The west is still very hot with a lot of precipitation around by this time frame. Friday the 24th of July, what we're seeing is a similar jetream structure. A little bit more going on along it though. We see a lot of moisture along this portion of the jetream uh kind of being carried along. And we see the four corner states, lower Midwest and Plains, deep south and southeast here, all seeing thunderstorms due to this. As we keep going towards the weekend here, Saturday the 25th, uh we can see that still this southern stream of moisture is the dominant factor. And right now it lays pretty far to the south. But if this trends over time a little bit further northward, you might have a stormier outlook for these areas than what we have right now. But for right now, Saturday the 25th looks relatively dry in these areas, especially when compared to the deeper south locations. Moving further towards Sunday the 26th here, it's pretty similar. Um mostly the four corner states and plains seeing the majority of our activity here. We do see some laying across the southeast and deep south by this point. So we're looking at kind of next week by this time frame. We're getting towards the 10day mark and we do warm up over time.

[00:06:19]Uh when we look at our jetream, it's very much the opposite of what we had been dealing with where maybe the most uh trough looking area in the United States is going to be that northwest corner. And the hottest is going to be the central states right here. But the east coast is also quite hot at this point midweek next week. And we can see that kind of continue with a lot of storminess on certain days. I mean, when we look at Wednesday the 29th here, we see a lot of areas dealing with scattered and isolated thunderstorms.

[00:06:47]And beyond that, this hot, humid environment allows for these areas of thunderstorms to set up. Um, it's not the most saturated look I've ever seen, but there's certainly quite a bit of it around for different pockets throughout this hotter phase that we move into eventually. Now, looking at the GFS model, we're going to look for agreement and disagreement like we always do. As we kind of just roll through this, we can see more of a ridge in the west, more of a trough in the east. Obviously some bad thunderstorms happening today still into tomorrow, but also Tuesday the 21st into Wednesday the 22nd.

[00:07:18]There's also quite a bit of activity happening uh especially along that Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Northeast areas. Uh beyond that, we again are pretty cool compared to normal. More thunderstorms perhaps moving in Saturday, Sunday. I guess I should have tracked the tropical system.

[00:07:34]It basically does the same thing here Sunday, today, Monday. It's kind of just scraping along the Florida panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana uh coastlines there. And it does seem to kind of break up mostly over the Louisiana coastline. Anyway, moving back forward, we do see a general warming that does occur towards Tuesday the 28th here, Wednesday the 29th, where we kind of do elevate out of this bigger cool down that we see. But another one does move through on this model run for the beginning of August, which is extremely far out, by the way. So take it with a grain of salt, but that is what this model shows at this point. Total precipitation on the European model, we see a lot of activity over the four corner states here, the plains, especially the northern plains and then the upper Midwest here. And then we also see another corridor that is partially influenced by this tropical system. You can see quite a bit of rainfall. Most of it is further offshore. If that trends more inland, that could be pretty bad because that is a lot of areas in there.

[00:08:33]10, 15, 20 inches of precipitation that this European model is showing offshore of the Gulf Coast. If that moves towards the coastline or even onshore of it, that is going to be a major major flooding situation in a in a hurry.

[00:08:46]That's what we could move towards easily. We do see that this area in the southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast kind of Ohio Valley here as well all stays really active with numerous thunderstorm and severe weather events over the next few days and couple of weeks. The GFS model is in pretty good agreement for corner states, plains here, a little bit less, but still the same idea. And then we can see for this Gulf Coast and kind of southeast up the east coast area, this is also really, really saturated with precipitation in a pretty similar fashion to what the European model showed. Temperature- wise, of course, right now we're pretty hot in the east, although we do see a cold front moving through uh today. A lot of it moved through yesterday. So, we can see the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. You're looking at 10 degrees below normal maybe for some of you. Uh definitely we've swung from a very hot pattern into a much much cooler pattern for today on Sunday for some of us. Monday the 20th, a lot of the East Coast is dealing with that similar conditions. And then we could see cool down number two moving in for Tuesday into Wednesday here in a much more potent way. Widespread 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the Greens.

[00:09:50]We see a lot of that again for the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. As we move further, we can see that lasts multiple days all the way till Friday, Saturday here on the 25th, Sunday the 26th, finally warming up after that point towards the very, very tail end of July into the beginning of August where we do stay relatively hot after that time frame. The GFS model here, we're going to watch this closely, but our first cool down that we're seeing today into tomorrow already is a few degrees cooler than what the European model showed with widespread bright greens indicating closer to that 15°ree below normal mark. Uh, and as we move past this to our second cool down, we can see temperatures not only 10 to 15 degrees below normal, but these brights are almost 15 to 20 degrees below normal for Ohio Valley uh into Pennsylvania, New York, New England here. many of those states dealing with that. As we keep going towards Friday the 24th and beyond, we can see some areas set up with 15, 25, 30 degrees below normal for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, southeast, and deep south here, way later on in July. Uh, and we really struggle to push that colder air out of the east until we reach like literally the 31st. So, this is happening multiple days later uh than what the European model showed. And we do get another cool down moving right into the east after it. So, still we've been dealing with this for weeks now if you guys have been keeping up with the videos, but we see major disagreement from both of these models still. Uh, so no clear indication of if it's just going to be some cold fronts and then we kind of get past it and we move back into the heat or if this GFS model is correct and we see an extremely rare arctic pattern set up in the east for the second time this summer. Uh, that is the the major differences that we're seeing between these two models and it is a major difference. not leaning any way between the two just as of yet, but definitely interesting. Uh, looking at the Storm Prediction Center outlooks, let's look at today on Sunday the 19th.

[00:11:45]We do see large swats of the nation dealing with the general thunderstorm risk there in the lighter greens. That's where we expect general thunderstorms, but anything is possible. So, heat every watch warning and advisory. Uh, no severe weather really expected there, but again, anything's possible. We actually have three marginal risk areas there. That's level one where we expect isolated severe weather to take place for the northern plains, upper Midwest, and portions of the deep south and southeast. There we have two separate level two slight risk areas in the yellows. One for the southeast and Carolas, one there for the northern plains and upper Midwest. And that is where we expect more scattered about severe weather reports to come in today into the overnight tonight. Looking at tomorrow on day two, uh we do see the second severe weather event really getting rolling by tomorrow on Monday where we do have a marginal risk, slight risk, and even a level three enhanced risk here for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. And that's where we expect a little bit more widespread severe weather to be possible. We also have a sneaky level one marginal risk there for the Carolinas and Virginia, even for the day tomorrow on Monday the 20th.

[00:12:49]Finally, day three here, Tuesday the 21st. two general thunderstorm risk areas, one for the west, one for the east, a large marginal risk, a large slight risk there in the yellow. Again, scattered severe weather. And then for the heart of the kind of Appalachian, Ohio Valley area there, we do have a level three enhanced risk. Uh, and yeah, a lot of big cities in that area.

[00:13:10]Actually looking at day four, we do have an extended day outlook here for Wednesday, the 22nd of July, where again the Carolinas, Virginia, and then areas of Maryland, Delaware, uh, and a little bit of southern New Jersey get involved in what is expected to be at least a slight risk of severe weather Wednesday the 22nd. So, this will be one of the many days in in just the last few weeks that we've seen a pretty elevated risk for severe weather in these East Coast locations. So, we're going to continue to track all of this for you guys. We do upload every single day, so be sure to subscribe. You can even hit the bell icon for daily notifications when we upload so you never miss one. Be sure to like the video if you did enjoy it.

[00:13:51]Leave a comment down below and I'll see you guys in the next