MRKT in the Morning - Análisis de Mercados e Ideas de Trading, con invitados Toni Fox y Juan Cosa

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-28

[00:00:06]Hello family, how are we? This is WF Traders. Juan is with me today.

[00:00:11]Today we begin this dynamic of going live every Monday at 8 pm.

[00:00:16]We're going to use Markets for support, we're going to review a little bit about markets, and try to create a dynamic where everyone can ask questions. Hey, you can leave comments, we'll answer any questions. Let's take a look at how the market is doing, even though we have a Bank Holiday, the market is resting, but WF Trader, right?

[00:00:34]Let's go.

[00:00:38]Okay, let's start a little bit with Market and the main thing that is being in this case, Juan, is the whole issue of the war, right?

[00:00:48]That is. If you like, let's take a look in the news section.

[00:00:54]Look for Iran and let's see a little bit about the latest, okay, the latest updates on the war, or we'll wait until a few more people join, that's all. Well, right now the main driver of the price is the issue of the war, the progress being seen in the negotiations and the price of energy, in this case oil.

[00:01:17]So today we're going to talk a little bit about it and how it's affecting asset prices. Hey, do you already have that one? Okay, yes, here we have the president.

[00:01:26]Okay, 33 minutes ago in the last one, the president of Iran ordered the restoration of the internet, Iranian media and state media. If you don't have marketplaces, we obviously recommend using them. Here you also always have, if you do n't understand any news item, a breakdown of what each news item would be in each case. So, it's something that you can... If you like, Tony Pon, the ones with a big impact. Let's see. Here you have it, so you can see the most important ones that have come out of this topic. And if you'd like to go back a little to what was discussed some time ago, the ceasefire.

[00:02:01]Here we start to see a little more news. Well, in this case what we're seeing and what has started, as we can see, the assets have opened with an upward gap and we're seeing this because negotiations seem to be progressing. Well, as you can see in the news, a ceasefire between the United States and Iran is expected to last 60 days. Hey, if you go down a little further, hey, from Tony, hey, well, they're already starting to talk about a ceasefire, hey, Trump. If you scroll down a little further, we can see comments from Trump and Iran saying that negotiations are going better, and that's what's moving the markets right now and why we're seeing slightly riskier assets and commodities rise in price. Okay.

[00:02:49]Yes, in fact, you and I were just talking about the dollar, Juan, weren't we? We also see how this event, right?

[00:02:57]The current situation shows that politics is greatly contributing to the strength of the dollar. In the end, the dollar is being supported by all these headlines, because ultimately, to buy or meet the current low demand—or rather, supply—for oil, you have to buy it with dollars, and that's helping a lot to support the dollar, right? In this case, exactly, we are seeing a positive correlation between the price of oil and the dollar. Ultimately, oil is priced in dollars; to buy oil, you need dollars. So, if the price of oil goes up, oil-importing countries need to sell more of their currency and buy more dollars to buy the same amount of oil. So, that's generating upward pressure on the dollar. Right now, what's keeping the price of, well, the Xi index, is rising or ranging at a high level, right? Nearing level 100.

[00:03:54]Hey, any more news out there?

[00:03:57]Yes, some more news. If you want, cane screens Kevin.

[00:04:10]Mm. Okay.

[00:04:12]Well, here we can see a little bit of how they are, let's look at the asset charts. We see that upward G we were talking about.

[00:04:22]Okay, let's see, as we were saying, how this agreement is being reflected in the price of oil, okay? The gapa price has dropped and hasn't even been replenished, and it has continued to fall. All of this is because right now the price of oil depends on the strait of Mututsu being opened up in the current conflict.

[00:04:45]So, since it seems they are closer to a truce than to the reopening of the Mud Strait, which carries 20% of all the world's oil, and there is a little hope that the war will end or progress, we can see that the price of oil is falling. It's the only thing that's staying on top right now. It is important to note that the damage to infrastructure and oil, and the depletion of oil reserves and inventories, is damage that has already occurred. So, when the war is resolved, we're not going to see oil prices plummet to pre-war levels, because the damage has already been done and that will be reflected in the price.

[00:05:27]That is. Ultimately, this is a supply chain. When we have oil, if we had had at most one day of rising oil prices, we could have noticed it, but having had this for so long, it's damage that has been done to the entire supply chain, even down to the last consumer, right? So, what we see is what Juan says, that by far, obviously if this war or if the strait reopens, we will have a small drop in oil, but I think seeing the levels we saw before, I think the context has already been given in which everyone has seen that energy is expensive and that it is not going to be so easy to return to the levels we had before. We also obviously know that oil has a significant impact on inflation. We also had to look at some things, well, we see that obviously the indices and gold, for example, have had that upward gap, while in the case of oil, the opposite has happened. There is a lot of uncertainty right now regarding the geopolitical situation. We know that Trump says one thing one day and another thing the next. Well, in the end I think these agreements are really heating things up. Even at W for Traders in the community we have sent some reports about the Big One, about how this counterparty is being protected in the case of the indices. Perhaps something we need to keep a very close eye on and have a very good view of things, to be attentive because obviously as soon as the narrative changes even a little, we see that the market abruptly changes its bias. That is. And well, since we're talking about oil and all that, let's relate it to the issue of inflation, okay? Let's talk a little bit about the price of energy and why it has remained high for so long. We are already seeing that inflation is rising, and the bond market is already discounting a slightly more structural and sustained inflation rate, which was initially expected to be a quick crisis, and at the beginning, when oil prices rose, bond yields did not increase, okay?

[00:07:29]Bond yields didn't rise, but we can see that when energy prices have remained high, the bond market, uh, yields are indeed rising and constantly making new highs. We're going to intersperse this a bit with monetary policy. Well, two rate cuts were being discounted, and so this inflation is a little more sustained over time. What we're seeing is that two interest rate hikes are expected before June 2027. Okay? If we look here, we go to the section on interest rates and central banks, and here they list all the upcoming bank meetings and the probability of rates being raised or maintained. As we can see, uh, for the moment in June, the Fed's decision uh says that there is a 97.5% chance that they will maintain them, that is, uh they are going to maintain them, but surely with a hock tone uh because of this inflation that is already starting to be noticeable.

[00:08:33]Hey, if you'd like to discuss combining this monetary policy topic with the WS issue, I'll look here in the news, okay? We're going to the news section.

[00:08:46]Uh, no, not in symbols. Opa.

[00:08:49]If we search here for " wars" and filter by high- impact news, okay?

[00:08:57]This is something that for many of you who have marketplaces, I highly recommend. When we skip over those news stories or we get to the market, sometimes we say, "Wow, what's been going on? What can I catch up on?"

[00:09:08]This new section for filtering news by keyword is incredibly helpful to me because before we start trading or analyzing the week, we always look for " Wars," "Trump," " oil," and other topics to select all the news about them and have a bit of a structure or organization of how things have progressed both over the weekend and in previous weeks.

[00:09:30]That's the truth, it really helps to filter all that news. For example, what am I most interested in knowing right now, what is the driver? Well, the Iran-Iraq War. So, you can search for it and directly see the most important news and the latest news on this topic. It really helps a lot. Well, as we can see here, guys, 17 hours ago, Wars took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve amid rising inflation and falling consumer confidence. It is interesting that he emphasizes this in a context of rising inflation and falling confidence due to the policy that Wars said he was going to take at the time when he spoke.

[00:10:06]Wars, to explain briefly, his speech, what he said in his speech is that artificial intelligence is deflationary and his way of carrying out monetary policy was going to be to lower interest rates to stimulate the real economy while reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet so as not to overstimulate risky assets, that is, not to inflate.

[00:10:34]Uh, in other words, he wants to prevent the indices from becoming too inflated while helping the real economy with this. Um, then another of the new things he said he was going to do is, instead of looking at the CPI data, the PC data that comes out with a delay, he was going to use artificial intelligence to make monetary policy decisions in real time and not wait for the data to come out, right?

[00:11:00]That's the issue with the checking account and so on. which in the end, well, this is a bit like what we 've seen in politics. This happens in the United States, and I think we know about it in Spain too. the speech before entering politics. Be quiet for a bit, otherwise when I speak, which I do. No, it's not tested. And the discourse when entering politics is always about saying what everyone wants to hear, right? And then once they enter politics, they end up changing all these ideas or proposals they have on the table. Something very important he said the other day, I don't know if you saw Trump's press conference with Guars, even.

[00:11:34]Trump explicitly stated that normally the president was quite involved, supporting the Federal Reserve a little bit. Trump explicitly stated that he would allow Wars to make any monetary adjustments he desired because he believes Wars is completely independent and wants to grant that independence to the Fed. We will have to see later how this might affect both the stock market and US assets, because previously the president didn't exactly control the Fed, but he did have a bit more involvement than Trump has now. We also have the underlying PCE in April, which we've seen Wars obviously won't base his decisions on, but we know that the underlying PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation benchmark for monitoring rates and seeing how they might make cuts or increases. As we have said and as Juan has explained well before, what we have is, uh, a hold, right?, on the rate hikes, because in the end we are coming from an energy shock. The energy shortage must be understood as not coming from the demand side, but from the supply side. So, that's very different. Right now the Fed is facing a very complicated situation because you ca n't raise rates, because you would overstimulate the economy and end up suffocating those Americans, and you also can't lower them because you're in a very difficult situation of restrictive measures.

[00:13:01]Now, in Wars' case, he's in a very difficult situation at the Fed.

[00:13:06]That's it. Okay. Uh, another topic I wanted to talk about, okay? Okay, if we go here to the control panel, we have a tool to see which sectors are receiving more money or liquidity, okay? In this case we're going to general markets. Here we have the sentiment index. Well, right now there is optimal optimism, as can be seen in the indices at all- time highs. And well, what I wanted to highlight here are the sectors or sectors that are attracting more money, the Russell 2000 technology, energy. Well, as we say right now, with the indices, the narrowing gap is very tight, energy is high, and even more rate hikes are being implemented, and yet the indices are still reaching all-time highs, right? This is partly due to artificial intelligence, the AI ​​boom, all the investment being made in it, and another reason why the indices are at their peak is that while inflation is rising, nominal interest rates are holding steady, real interest rates—that difference—are falling. That is, uh, I think I remember that it was 0.3 or 0.4 of having types, Juari's microphone has broken there. Now I'm here. That's very interesting. That's something we've also helped many of the students at Wox to understand.

[00:15:04]We have the part about real interest rates, right? And then there are, I mean, nominal rates, and then there are nominal rates. Having tall guys is of no use to you. If your inflation is very high, in the end your real interest rate will end up being a much lower percentage, right?

[00:15:15]So it's a very important part to understand. In fact, I think even Hugo, who we have here, made a PDF for the whole community on the topic of types. Another thing I'd like to teach you, Kevin, if you can change this one. Yes, perfect. Uh, another thing I'd like to show you is the energy part. Well, as we can see, with the whole tour thing, there's a lot of movement, and what I also wanted to tell you is about the sectors. I don't know if you are familiar with this or if you use it in your trading, but it is very important to know how sectors are responding and what kind of volume, whether bullish or bearish, they have. In this case, here we can see the XLK which is a technology product. We also have XLC, which is for communication. Clearly here we have consumer discretion. If we look at the XLE, which is energy, then it's clearly going to be one of the sectors that's doing the best, okay? Now we'll see it down here, the energy one, uh, because of all this shock that's happened, right? So it's very important to keep these things in mind when trading indices and trading a little bit about the United States. Many people tell me, "No, I want to start drawing lots in the United States and the indices." And then I come along and just pull this out of them. I mean, "If we have the Russell 2000, which are the 2,000 companies, even if they are small- cap companies in the United States, making new highs, that doesn't necessarily mean the economy is doing badly right now. We might have high bond prices, we might be dealing with uncertainty, with geopolitical issues, but we can't try to circumvent a stock market like the Nasdaq or the S&P 500 knowing that we have the indices, in this case the Russell 2000, making new highs. If we were to see a decline in the US economy and see that possible drop in the indices, it's clear that the first to fall, and the one that would fall most sharply, would be the Russell 2000, right? In this case, it would be the 2,000 smallest companies. I don't know if you're familiar with the term 'Mac 7,' which I also have here, below. The Max 7 are the seven largest companies in the United States, and it's also very important at different times in the economy." The market, which I use a lot for index trading, is, hey, the market is being driven because all 500 companies on the SAP or 100 companies on the NASDAQ 100 are all rising a little, or the market is rising because the seven largest companies on the NASDAQ or the SP are leading the way, right? This ultimately helps us understand that, obviously, if we only had the " magnificent seven" rising, we could say, "Hey, the market is only being driven by the seven best companies, and in the end, there might be a correction." That 's one possibility, but if we look at the total value of US stocks, we see that the combined value of all companies is rising. That is, it 's not just the "magnificent seven" that are rising, of course, and therefore, they are the ones rising the most. In this case, Envy, we can see the issue of chips; everyone wanted to buy them. Well, in the end, when you start buying things... In a top spot, and news comes out in your favor, we often see these mini-corrections in the market. However, we can reanalyze and realize that since March 2016, it's been up 40-something percent, and this correction or this drop we've had here is more than healthy and entirely possible. It's a drop of 2, 9%, reaching previous highs; it could even find support at those, right? Uh, we already have Juan back. Yes, and in fact, since you're talking about Nvidia, the results last week were... they exceeded expectations again, just like their colleagues in the "magnificent seven," as he said, the "plus seven," Microsoft, which was two weeks ago, Microsoft, Apple, I don't remember which others, and I want to say, all these companies are reinvesting everything in artificial intelligence infrastructure; that is, everything they're earning, everything they're exceeding expectations, they're constantly reinvesting.

[00:19:03]To give you an idea of ​​what they 're... Betting on this sector, right?

[00:19:08]Uh, what you were saying about everything going up, all the companies on the S&P and so on, uh, that's right. And I want to emphasize that especially those in artificial intelligence, as we're seeing here, uh, which are in the sectors, let's see if you can click on the screen.

[00:19:25]It's, uh, switch, Kevin, please.

[00:19:30]That's it. I mean, a big shoutout to Kevin who does all the marketing in English, he's helping us with moderation, and a big shoutout to everyone.

[00:19:44]That's it, uh, well, as I was saying before, the technology sector. Uh, another section I want to show you is the companies.

[00:19:59]If we go here, we have the company results that are coming out, okay?

[00:20:05]Uh, well, we have Nvidia's from last week, we can see it on the calendar and so on. Okay, and if you go into the results here, it gives you a bit of an analysis of what has... So, as I was saying, we see the strength of the results. The quarterly results were very positive, with earnings per share of $0.87 and revenue of $81.62 billion, exceeding forecasts, while revenue increased by 85.2%. This is incredible in terms of profit, and for it to exceed 85% with everything involved, well, we see the strength this sector has right now, right? Now, talking a bit about artificial intelligence and such, a commodity that we at White Fox mentioned some time ago as interesting, and which we still find interesting because there's inelastic demand with all the infrastructure development we're seeing, is copper. Okay, let's see, if I'm not mistaken, if we look at copper futures, we see that it hasn't stopped rising. In fact, I'm going to make a comparison with gold, okay? If you see, so that You can see a bit of its strength, huh? While gold keeps making lower highs and lower lows, copper has already started to recover all that price decline.

[00:21:40]In fact, it's made a new high and it just keeps going up. This is because there's a limited supply of copper and the current demand for copper, due to all the electrical infrastructure and such, is enormous. So, well, that's it, let's leave you with that comparison and that direction we mentioned for White Fox a while back when it hadn't yet taken that surge.

[00:22:05]Something else that's important is, I don't know if some of you know, I think we have Hugo and Dani here, and we also want to explain the SoC chart, which is a chart that shows us everything about semiconductors and chips. So, I think it's very interesting to see how Envidia, being one of the largest chip producers, is ultimately one of the biggest producers of chips and... Obviously, we're in a market where everything seems so high, right? And sometimes when you see everything so high, it's scary to buy, and when you see everything so low, it's scary to buy. And I can only tell you that even at its highest points, the stock market has always continued to rise, and even at its weakest points, it can always rise. So I want you to understand that, as Juan said, all this reinvestment that these large companies are making—that is, the millions and billions they 're earning—they're not saving it and saying, "Hey, if we're going to crash, we'll keep this aside, " they're reinvesting all that in potential, in computing, in chips, in data.

[00:23:07]So it's a very interesting thing because, well, we can see estimates from Goldman Sachs or Goldman Sachs, as you mentioned this morning, for the SPN at 8900, right? Something like that.

[00:23:20]8900. In the end, those are prices that would seem crazy, and obviously, it wouldn't be the... Normal, right? And we'll get to the TR comparison for you now, Gustavo, it's very easy, right? It wouldn't be normal, I mean, it wouldn't be normal, but it's something that can perfectly happen. And I want you to know that sometimes we think we're late, but I want you to know that the I right now is a very big boom and we do n't realize the scale this could have on large companies.

[00:23:49]If you want, you can explain it to Gustavo there so we can quickly compare at the end, yes. In the end, we have to pay attention to the price. So, if with all this narrative, I'll explain it to Gustavo now, if with all this narrative about the war, the conflict, and so on, the indices have still been making highs, well, right now trying to sell them is pointless because if that kind of capital is coming in and the highs are being surpassed without any problem, and it's been 9 weeks, I think, with this one, in consecutive bullish periods, well, there's a reason behind it. We know that, but what if we didn't know? We'd still have to pay attention to the price, right? The question you mentioned here on TradingView— this is the one you're looking at—and then to compare it, you click on the one on the far right, you choose, I don't know, anything. Right now, okay, let's compare it with silver too. And you click on "new price scale," and here you can compare the two charts, okay? No, that little question came up, right?

[00:24:57]Okay. Um, if you like, let's review the week's news.

[00:25:05]Um, let's go here.

[00:25:07]Well, we're going to go to the economic calendar, okay?

[00:25:13]Um, right now I have it set to only show high-impact events. Let's include the medium-impact ones too. As I said, we have the part that I think is very important, which is the April PC sub-balance, which you know always comes out at, and I mean, throughout all these years it has been at Look, throughout all these years it's been the Fed's favorite inflation benchmark, okay? It's been a tool they 've used a lot to control rates, and we have it this week. And I think, I won't say anything, but I think there will be surprises there too, given the whole energy issue, right? We also have something very important that we have n't mentioned, things are piling up. We could be here for hours. SpaceX is launching its IPO on June 12th and will also be listed on the Nasdaq 100. It would be one of the companies included in the NASDAQ, which we have to keep in mind because this is going to bring a lot of volume, a lot of activity, and a lot of money to the market.

[00:26:14]Volatility, volatility, above all. We 're not the ones who recommend buying an IPO as soon as it comes out because most IPOs, if you look at the last 500 from the United States or any other country, usually see their initial price rise significantly.

[00:26:28]It takes a good shot, right? And creates a good upward structure, but usually, a few months or a little later, it goes back to sideways or returns to its initial launch levels. So, if someone is thinking of buying an IPO, I'd say go ahead, everyone should consider their own risk, but I would never buy an IPO at launch. I would wait a bit to see how the price and market structure react.

[00:26:52]Yes, besides SpaceX, which is in June, I think Antropic and Open were also going to launch soon in June, and they are three huge artificial intelligence companies that aren't there yet, and there could be a lot of volatility. What Tony is explaining about IPOs is that you have to be careful at launch because the first shareholders aren't allowed to sell their shares. So, only 7 or 8% of the total volume is launched. And it's true that it's normal that It took a big hit because of that lack of liquidity or something, but then, when they finally let shareholders sell, I think, I don't know, I can't remember right now exactly how long they let them, and there's more supply, so to speak. That's when we'll really see the price, if it consolidates at the top, if it falls back, and so on. And that's when it becomes interesting to start analyzing it, to see the structure it's forming, and if you see that it has upward momentum and so on, then buy it there and not be a bit of a gambler and buy the exit because you never know what's going to happen.

[00:28:07]That's it, thank you very much. And literally, they've put it somewhere, and this is really about 6 months, it depends on the company, but normally IPOs have a 6- month lock-up period, that's what it is.

[00:28:17]So, then after those 6 months, we really see what price the market puts on that IPO or that stock in this case.

[00:28:26]So, it's always better to wait and see how the market assimilates that new exit. The stock market and trading it, well, once you've been in the market for 6 months and the initial holders or those who bought the IPO can sell.

[00:28:39]That's it. Uh, well, as you were saying, uh, the core PCE comes out, the year-on-year one, uh, forecasts come out this Thursday, uh, forecast that it will rise by 0.1%.

[00:28:53]Uh, well, yes, we see that this inflation, uh, apart from energy, we see how it's starting to spread to other sectors, for example, the services sector and so on, so it's not just the PCE or the regular CPI that's rising, but the core one too, which is excluding energy and food. And well, uh, let's see a little bit from the beginning, since we've jumped straight to Thursday. There's not much on Monday, on Wednesday we have the CPI of the Out.

[00:29:26]They expect it to fall, uh, something interesting with all the energy issues and so on.

[00:29:33]Uh, I think there was a meeting. The truth is, it's strange that that AD will fall, the estimates are what they are, but the It would also be logical that the AUD, as we've seen and as we've seen its behavior throughout these months and this year, has been one of the strongest currencies. This has also been supported by the commodities sector and by the fact that it had one of the most attractive interest rates on the market compared to other currencies. Yes, in fact, interest rates recently rose. I believe they raised rates at the last meeting, and while these cuts were being ruled out in all economies, the AUD was one of the few that continued to see interest rates rise. So, that's why we've seen this appreciation, accompanied, as my colleague Tony says, by the valuation of commodities like gold, since Australia is an exporter of metals like gold, for example.

[00:30:36]Okay, I'm here, I don't know what's happening with mute. Yes, I'm here. Oh, no, okay, I'm here now. Sorry, I don't know what's happening here with Juanito, you know how it is, right? You do a live stream and It does this, and these little glitches always appear, which are just part of live trading, as they say. Let's get back to the economic calendar.

[00:30:57]In this case, something really cool about the economic calendar for those who don't use Marketedge is something I really like: it shows the maximum and minimum figures, not just an average.

[00:31:06]Because when we look at, for example, the monthly CPI, we have a minimum of 0.10 and a maximum of 0.9.

[00:31:13]Our average or the bank's forecast would be 0.6.

[00:31:16]Imagine that, for whatever reason, we have a CPI of 0.9 or 1%. If this CPI figure of 1% came out, we would see that it's much closer to the expected maximum, which always means much more volatility.

[00:31:33]When people look at Investing.com or Forex Factory or any data provider that doesn't have these forecasts like we have here at Marketedge, which are from JP Morgan, Citibank, and others, they often think... Very, very important banks, in the end you're left a bit unsure because you know the midpoint, but you never know what extreme volatility levels might occur if we reach a high, a low, or a low, right? This is very interesting for me in terms of forecasting, especially the low and high. As you know, for everyone who doesn't know the difference between a monthly CPI, a year-on-year CPI, or a seasonally adjusted monthly CPI, we have the market section here, which gives us a direct summary, a complete construction manual explaining what each one is, how it affects things, and especially something many of you don't know. Some people still tell me, "Dude, I just realized we have a strategy manual that tells us what's going to happen, and it directly tells us if it comes out above the average monthly CPI. If it comes out above, then it would be bullish, or very bullish, for the AUD in this case." And we also have a result, well here's a mini breakdown of a better-than- expected result, it supports the Australian dollar and pushes yields higher. A lower-than- expected result favors a weaker Australian dollar and a more flexible monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia. from the RBA. Keep an eye on Australian interest rate futures and the upcoming decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. This is very important because many of you have surgery and in the end we all started with that, right? Yeah, the news comes out green, buy, it comes out green and red, sell, and that depends a lot on the context, it depends a lot on the asset and especially on the type of news we're analyzing, right? So, I recommend that everyone take a look at this and take notes, because the best way to improve as a trader is to understand the market, understand what it's telling us, what data it's putting on the table, and how to use that data to our advantage, especially to have an effective rate or good quality trading, right? Then we also have New Zealand interest rates, also expected to be 225, in the end the forecasts even if they remain the same. Hey, are you back here, Juan? Yes, I've got you. Okay. Okay, good. There desmute.

[00:33:52]There we are.

[00:34:01]Yes, I'm here now. Yes. Uh, as my colleague was saying, uh, yes, we have this thing, we have a meeting about the New Zealand dollar, okay? Well, my prediction is that they will maintain interest rates. Okay, let's see, let's try it here and see if it tells us. Uh, the expectation is that they'll maintain interest rates, okay?

[00:34:27]But I expect they're going to have a hockey tone, uh, the last time, the last meeting they had, uh, they said they anticipated the conflict would be short-lived, that energy wouldn't be expensive for long, and that's why they were maintaining. Well, it's already clear that this isn't going to happen, that the conflict is lasting longer than expected. They also said at the last meeting that they were unable to raise interest rates due to the risk of collapsing the domestic economy, given their rather weak demand, a somewhat exhausted consumer base, and companies saying they were having difficulty passing on increased costs to consumers; in other words, the economy is already somewhat saturated, which is why they weren't raising rates. Uh, and that's why I think that in this meeting they're going to maintain certain types of communication again, but they're going to try to make that verbal intervention a bit more hock-like for the future, right?

[00:35:28]Uh, that's a very important part of the market. Please like it if you leave a comment. That's kind of what we ask in return, and we want to make this space structured weekly so that you can listen to us and have a space with us here. So, I'm asking you to please smash that like button, subscribe, and we'll have our section here every Monday, so we can give you the best possible content. We'll be rotating. The good news for us is that we are a huge team. We are more than seven people on the team. So, Juan will be with me today. Tomorrow I'll be with Arturo, with Bray, today with Rafa, with Chabu. So, we'll rotate a bit.

[00:36:07]I'll bring everyone as guests and then, obviously, I'll let them do their market mornings too, which in this case aren't mornings, because it's at 8 pm for us, but it's great for us to be able to do these live streams.

[00:36:25]Um, I don't know if we're finished, but if you want to take a look at some interesting charts.

[00:36:31]Uh, I don't know what field I am. Okay, I'm waiting a little while for the money. I think I'll also send a good thesis later that I really liked. It is true that we need to be a little careful with commodities right now. You don't have the Kevin Switch, please.

[00:37:11]I think I forgive them for being there.

[00:37:14]Big, big, I can't be heard. It's great that we have you there. It's so great that we have you guys around, really.

[00:37:18]Thanks, uh. Ultimately, we're just sharing a screen. Look here. And it's a hassle to do two things at once, it's like something only women do, right? That's what they say, sometimes a man finds it difficult. In my case, it's sometimes difficult.

[00:37:30]So, well, the issue of silver futures, all commodities, we've seen everything with copper, we also have the issue of platinum, palladium, these are commodities that in the market cycle we 're in now and with this context of inflation and all these problems, I think commodities can still really give us a big surprise on the upside. We have many commodities with plenty of space still to fill.

[00:37:58]We can see how silver would still have 50% up from its peak. which is a huge number of opportunities in the market. Of course, you have to be attentive; you shouldn't buy every DIP that comes out, not at all, but well, it's an idea that I would like to have. Hey, the Oglevans here have been around a long time, so this might sound familiar, but anyway, this is kind of my Fibonacci, it has many ways to measure it and you have to know how to use it, but well, in my case, I would like to wait for a zone down here. Okay, I'll mark it and I'll also leave it in the community. These would be my buying zones; this would be my first buying zone due to price exhaustion, and this would be the second. I don't see it as far- fetched at all. It may be that we haven't arrived because if we throw this Tony Nach of mine again, which I have tested, we can see that in this case we already reached the first one and we reached it exactly and if it's not there it's because it's not properly inserted, which would be from the body to the fuse. You can see how these are the types of entries that this tool ultimately gives me. I've been using it for years and years. It's something I've kept private because it's been very difficult, it's been tested and there's a lot of work behind it, but it's something that I'm sure you'll be able to see in the future with Wifox and training, but as you can see, it gave us the first reaction zone and then it gave us the second reaction zone as well. So, well, as I said, I'm waiting for the price to drop a little and look for slightly lower levels. Then, I would like that quite a lot. Then, the platinum issue will also be very interesting. If it's true that I don't recommend platinum, if you've never traded it before, don't go into platinum right now because you'll see that you'll end up with €0.1 and I think you'll start with €300 in Drownout. It has a very large spread and the lot size it handles is enormous. Oh, and then we have copper and then we have palladium, which if anyone wants to do a reset, if anyone wants to look at some things there, I know they'll like it.

[00:39:44]Palladium is one of the metals that is most valued before and after recessions and in the midst of recessions. Yes, it's true that the United States has already made it quite clear with its current monetary policy and with Quarsa at the helm that a recession is not the most likely outcome, but since we never know in this market and that card is still on the table, I think it's important for you to be aware of it. Yes, the scenario we're seeing more is stagflation, that is, low growth, although I think GDP is at 2%, which is more or less good growth, while inflation is rising, right? So, that's the slightly more likely scenario right now, rather than a recession, in my opinion, to be honest.

[00:40:25]So, so, yeah, yeah, yeah, very well said, huh? I don't know if you have any questions you can ask us below. We would be looking at oil a little bit.

[00:40:37]Ah, okay. Come on, let's take a look a little longer before we finish. Kevin, thanks man. We have the star Kevin. Damn, it's huge. Let's get to this, shall we?

[00:40:52]Look, someone's asking us a question.

[00:40:54]Manu, if you want, Manu RM29, if you want to reply there. Juanito says, "I'm talking about the war, let's see what you think about this and then we'll both give our opinions."

[00:41:06]Yes, that's what we were talking about. Well, as long as the war persists and energy prices are high, as we are seeing right now with oil, what we see is that it is ranging at quite high levels. Well, there are my indicators, but well, we're seeing a range that's between the 117 it made and, well, let's put it a bit around here and 84. Uh, for me, the moment oil drops below 80 and consolidates in that area, which is surely what would move the price there would be if all this issue of war and geopolitical conflicts eases up, I think that the dollar could lose some strength simply because of what we explained before, there will be less demand because the price will be lower. Ultimately, this rise in the DXI has been largely due to a need for liquidity. You think there are many countries that are indebted in dollars. So, when interest rates rise, the price of energy rises, and they have to sell as much as they can, especially the most liquid assets. That's why we had that drop in the price of gold when the war started. They have to sell everything they can to have liquidity, to pay all those debts, both companies and others I'm talking about. It is true that, from my point of view, I see that the dollar could lose some strength when the war ends, but we'll see. In the end, as we said before, you have to look at the price, you have to trust the price. For now, it's getting in, the XI is staying in those ranges, and well, and the oil is also ranking high up here, right? Uh, then, in fact, if we look at Xirry's, it's been ranking in a range for almost six months, right?

[00:42:56]I think it's been six or five months since it literally reached a certain range and it has n't moved from there. Uh, yes, literally since April 21st or so, I mean, we have this range here around level 100, which we all know is a somewhat psychological level, uh, that when it reaches it they defend it, they use it both as support and as resistance if they break it. And down here, what I normally see when the price is accumulating for so long, which we've been doing for months, uh, not to mention a year now, practically accumulating, uh, normally what's coming next is an explosive moment in one direction or another. So, my recommendation is not to try to guess where the price is going to go, but to see where it breaks out of this range. If it goes down, then when the war ends, I think that could be a good area to sell. Or if we see that inflation is a little more persistent and there is a little more instability in the world, both geopolitical and otherwise, and we see that the dollar as a safe haven continues to rise due to that need for liquidity.

[00:44:15]The issue is that they've said it will take 30 days to unlock the mines and then approximately 6 months to remove them. The narrow passage cannot be used, that's why it 's not being discounted from the price.

[00:44:24]Well, Manu, what I can tell you is that the price is already discounted, so you're not the only one who's seen it. I assure you that the people at Modero know that. The only thing that is true is that the market is n't giving it as much importance anymore; it has already absorbed the initial blow, it has become accustomed to these market conditions, and it always looks for a way to... even so, that's it. In the end, we often think that the market isn't concerned about something or that it isn't taking it into account, and we have to be the first to realize that this can happen in a short period of time.

[00:45:02]But the whole issue you're talking about, I've also seen it, and as I said, it's very prevalent on Twitter these days. Right now, all the traders or people who are trading oil know that this is going to happen; they know that since it was done, they know that there will be 30 days that the strait will not be unblocked and all the ships will pass through. They also know that the ships that have been unlocked and have been trapped in the oil wells—in each of the oil wells, silence, I'll give you a second—each of the oil wells has a different price and each ship has a completely different crude oil value. So, we have to understand that the market is already rushing all those things, and as we say, this hasn't been an energy shock where we see oil above 100 for a few days and then it goes back down, but the fact that this oil has been above these prices for so, so, so long breaks many supply chains and above all affects many countries as such. We already talked in the last live stream with Chavo and Bris about the difference, right?, between a net energy carrier and a net exporter. And I think those are things we have to keep in mind and know that even if we think it's not priced in, if it's news that's already been around or a headline that's been appearing for a while, whether we believe it or not, the market will gradually price it in. Maybe not the first day, maybe not the second, but we all know that once the Ormud channel opens up, it won't happen overnight. We know there's that 30-day pause and we're also taking into account the issue of the mines, but we totally agree.

[00:46:30]Uh, I love that we're going to have this value every Monday. How great. Uh, uh, Manu, that, uh, well, it's what we explained before, we already explained why the indices keep making highs. There is liquidity. The market has become accustomed to this condition; there is liquidity for the markets to continue rising, and there is a reason behind it. And well, I don't know if you've been here since the beginning of the live stream, we've explained why the indices kept making highs, despite all this talk about the Strait of Gibraltar, and right now we have to pay attention to the price. Like I was saying, if even with all this, it's still making new highs, it's for a reason. It's because people are still investing in artificial intelligence, because this theory still exists, and there's liquidity to keep buying, right?

[00:47:21]In fact, if you go to the latest White Force Traders reil, today another of our colleagues, Arturo, whom I greet from here, said a very important phrase, right? If I have a thesis that I think something is going to fall and it keeps going up and up and up, I have to see what I'm not seeing that the market is telling me, because clearly my thesis may be good in the long term, but at that moment if I think it's going to fall and I don't understand why it's going up, it's because there's something we 're not understanding about the market, there's some data that we're not being able to analyze or put down into perspective to understand it. So it's very important to say, "Yes, we too may have been surprised at first, but right now we see the amount of billions that these companies are reinvesting in their own AI companies. We see how the technology sectors, the S&P sectors, even the Russell 2000 that we talked about earlier, are rising. So, to think that simply because of the Straits and such, the stock market should fall... Well, that could be one thing, but as Juan says, the market has already adapted to these market conditions, it already knows a little bit about how things are moving, and we know that right now we've even had days with wars, with missiles, and the S&P was making new highs, right? So, we have to realize what the market conditions are and what the market is taking seriously right now. You also have the whole issue of taco trading, as there was at one point, the whole issue of tariffs. Of course, On the first day, of course the stock market fell because the tariffs were coming out and everything. "Wow, he's going to raise tariffs!" When the guy had already been talking about tariffs for three months, then a news story about tariffs would come out and instead of going down, the market would start to rise, right? So, above all, if I can give you this as advice after seven years of trading the markets, I would tell you to pay close attention to the market narrative, what's driving it, because we might think, "Wow, the Strait is super important." Right now, the market doesn't care about the Strait at all. It's focusing on the reinvestment of capex that companies are making, on how technology is driving it, and on how these companies are building a new ecosystem and generating a lot of liquidity.

[00:49:43]Okay, there you have it.

[00:49:46]Now, uh, well, guys, let's finish looking at some interesting charts.

[00:49:52]Uh, a direction we discussed a while ago in the group, for example, wait a minute. Um, the wheat issue. With all the rising energy costs, fertilizers—90% of their production costs are energy. So, as we said a while ago, we explained it to the group a while back, with all the rising energy costs, the price of manufacturing fertilizers rises drastically. And if we investigate a bit, the commodities that use the most fertilizers in their cultivation process are wheat and corn, right? We mentioned this wheat trade a while ago, and well, as we can see, it's been reaching its highest point for quite some time with a fairly strong upward trend.

[00:50:43]Then another one, and finally, I think we could discuss the recent intervention by the Bank of Japan, right? If you agree, Tony. And we'll wrap up; this is getting a bit long. Well, as we can see here on the chart, the red squares represent the various interventions the Bank of Japan has made, okay? We see that at the 160 level, as you all know, they have this They usually intervene, or it's a high enough risk level for them to intervene and manipulate the price downwards. Right now, Trump is having talks with Japan because, ultimately, Japan isn't interested in having its currency constantly being evaluated. They'd like to repatriate capital, but on the other hand, the United States isn't interested in them repatriating their capital because it raises their interest rates. So they're trying to reach an agreement, a negotiation.

[00:51:41]But, well, in Japan they intervene and it keeps going and going, but even so, the yen appreciates a little.

[00:51:48]But as soon as they stop intervening, it keeps going up, or rather, the yen keeps going down.

[00:51:54]That's it, it's not enough to stop that big bias, that big direction it's been following for years. Yes, show the weekly chart, please, or a 6-month or 3-month chart so people can see how we've been rising and that it's a chart that keeps getting stronger, right?

[00:52:11]And that we've been in a rally since 2013, 2011, yes. I think 2011 is the year of the rescue. Yes, yes, 2011 hasn't stopped creating highs. So, as Juan says, it's true that they make these interventions, and it can be smart to take a small, specific trade on that day with a small risk, but you have to be friends with the trend.

[00:52:31]I think you all know this and have been guilty of deading against the trend.

[00:52:36]In fact, if you're in the school community, you'll see a post by Arturo that he also uploaded, which is very interesting and explains this same situation, right? We ca n't go against these trends, and that's very important.

[00:52:47]And regarding the interventions, as you were saying here, Juan, we always have that first intervention; we have them all marked in red, as you can see there on the left in Juan's chart. We have the first one, and lately, as we've seen since 2022, it's always those. It makes a new second high, and then there's a second intervention, and we really have that drop, right? Of the pairs or that strong... birth in that case.

[00:53:09]So, as we can see, we've just had the first one. So, we as a team of WFC traders, if it's an idea that several of us share, we might like to see it break above those highs, especially to see what context we have, what narrative is driving the market, what exactly Japan is doing with bonds, and whether or not it's selling US Treasury bonds. And once we have that, we could look for a short position on this pair, but we come back to the same point. It's not an idea we're committed to, because you shouldn't commit to any idea in the market. You have to understand the narrative, you have to understand the cycle, and once we see that, we can trade these kinds of positions, right?

[00:53:43]Yes. Look, until, I mean, until they repatriate, until they repatriate and so on, there's no reason for the Gen to keep falling because, in the end, that interest rate differential is what it is, right? So, as Tony said, as long as they don't intervene, it's true that at these levels Buying now, knowing there are usually interventions, is already dangerous, a bit riskier, but well, my bias for the JPI remains bearish. We have to keep an eye on whether they can be repatriated, which would be the only reason the yen could appreciate a little more, and that's about it for today.

[00:54:19]Honestly, I think we've covered everything a bit. We've talked a little, we've done a very good review. We want a lot of feedback and for you to tell us if this is the first time we've done this. If you want us to focus on more topics, look at more charts and talk less about our ideas, if you want us to review more news, really, all feedback is welcome. We are literally here for you, to lend a hand and to create that community or that space that we don't find today in Spanish-speaking trading, and thanks to Marketage because thanks to them we are here.

[00:54:48]So, well, we offer them our full support always because thanks to them we are here and we would love to be able to do this every year.

[00:54:56]weeks. Obviously, we want that feedback, that enthusiasm. I know that sometimes someone forgets and all that, but really, a comment and a like support us and give us all that motivation and confidence to come here next Monday at 8 pm, even though, as I said, the market is closed for the holiday. We're here working hard, and you're here too. And also, thank you all, of course, for being here with us in this space.

[00:55:19]Yes, literally to build a little loyalty, we've opened the school recently, for those who don't know, you can see it in the community, and the truth is we're really working hard on it, and we haven't even started yet. Top all in Spanish, on all things monetary, right? From the entire Spanish-speaking world directly, right? We 're also there, and to tell you, if you don't have the Marketech platform, we always recommend it, as you can see we use it, it does market analysis, it has a lot of tools that we haven't used today because we haven't It came up, but other days we could use something like COD, which, like the COD we have here, is quite visual. Then you can go into each section here and it's much more visual for each one, for example, the output. In this case, we have separate analyses of each economy with employment, inflation, interest rates, growth, and sentiment. And if you click on a little beer icon (I don't know where it is), it does an analysis and all that. I recommend both joining our school and starting to use the Marketedge platform, which we always use and find quite useful, and that's it. With this, I'm satisfied for today.

[00:56:45]That's it. Me too. We're here, family, for whatever you need.

[00:56:48]Write to WFC Traders or the Marketedge team if you need anything, and we'll always be 100% open to lend a hand.

[00:56:58]So, if you need anything, give us a thumbs up, I think it's there. So, a huge hug to everyone and see you soon.

[00:57:06]Thanks to all. What you're all saying, what I'm seeing here in the whole chat, the support, it's been great, and so on. It's really cool to have your feedback and for you to tell us so we can see if we can continue down this path, change things up, talk about other topics, if you liked this, if we should keep going with this format, and so on. So, thanks to everyone for the support, and I'll see you next Monday, and for those of you who have school, we'll be starting classes soon.

[00:57:32]That's it. A big hug to everyone.

[00:57:36]Bye. Thank you all so much.