Millions Are In This Storm's Path...

[00:00:00]It's Sunday, July 19th, 2026. It's the 200th day of the year, and the quiet part of the forecast is not going to last much longer. Nearly 80 million people from Cincinnati to New York are inside of Tuesday's severe storm corridor, and a Monday night wild card is going to decide how bad that gets.

[00:00:18]Meanwhile, the Atlantic's first tropical storm in over a month could form tonight as tropical depression 2 meanders off the Gulf Coast through Thursday. So, let's jump right into it. Again, nearly 80 million of y'all are inside of Tuesday's severe weather corridor from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. And I want to walk you through when it hits your city. The bullseye is an enhanced risk covering 10.5 million people around Lexington, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Youngstown, Charleston, West Virginia, and places like that. We do have a broader slight risk that goes to Columbus, Nashville, Washington, Philadelphia, and New York City, plus everybody packed in between.

[00:00:55]So, this is going to be a damaging wind day. Multiple rounds of storms capable of knocking down trees, cutting power, and blocking roads across several states. The first big storm should fire Tuesday afternoon in the Ohio Valley, then sweep south through Kentucky through the afternoon and evening.

[00:01:10]Western Pennsylvania is going to take its hit Tuesday evening, and the Mid-Atlantic could still be rocking after dark. So, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh peak hours before Philadelphia and New York do. An unusually deep upper level trough is supplying the lift and it keeps this whole system charging southeast. The atmosphere could load up to 2 to 3,000 jewels per kilogram of cape or storm fuel over Kentucky and 15 to 2500 jewels per kilogram around western Pennsylvania. And winds a few thousand feet up are going to be running 40 to 50 knots. And for the middle of July, that's a lot of support for organized storms. The first sustained storms may turn into rotating supercells with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two before merging into a fastmoving Boeing line segment that's going to leave long stripes of wind damage behind. The question mark that's been bugging me all morning, though, is what survives from Monday night into Tuesday across Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio? Because there's some storms that are going to start off up here, and the way that those progress is really going to determine how bad the storms are going to get on Tuesday. if the morning storms hang around, the slow heating is going to keep the storm fuel down a little bit and that might actually lead to a lesser severe threat.

[00:02:23]But uh don't cancel your Tuesday plans yet. But if you're anywhere between Cincinnati to the east coast, make sure that you do have an indoor backup plan in place and you've got more than one way of getting warnings. Again, some of these storms are going to be hitting overnight. So, this is why I built y'all call because if a warning drops in your location after dark on Tuesday night, your phone's going to ring and ring and ring until you pick it up. Now, let's zero in on that wind threat because straight line wind gust strong enough to put whole trees down on houses and parked cars is definitely going to be the most widespread danger on Tuesday.

[00:02:55]Early supercells once again could carve out some concentrated pockets of wind damage and some large hail. But once this big line gets going, the strongest gusts can cross several counties with very little time between the warning and the wind. So do not watch this one roll in from the porch. I highly recommend being indoors and away from windows for these storms. We're talking about Cincinnati, Columbus, Charleston, Pittsburgh. These are the areas that technically sit closest to the enhanced risk and the elevated wind area. The I95 corridor faces scattered severe storms.

[00:03:25]And yes, that does include Tuesday night's Dodgers Phillies game in Philly and the Pirates Yankees games uh in the Bronx. So, a tornado is possible whenever a storm stays isolated long enough, but I don't think there's going to be too many of those. But, there is going to be a second threat that stacks on top. We're talking about flash flooding across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachins with storms training over the same spots and dropping localized 2 to 4 in swaths. So, soils near Pittsburgh are already pretty soggy. Recent storms dumped 3 or 4 in northeast of the city and streams are still running very high. A separate flood risk is going to hit the Urbanides Mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Wednesday with over 2 in of moisture in the air feeding downpours that could flood underpasses and swamp city drains as well. So, if you're flying on Tuesday, expect stops, diversions, and missed connections around Cincinnati, Philadelphia, JFK, and LaGuardia. Make sure you get those warning alerts turned on before Tuesday afternoon. And never wait to see damage before moving away from windows and into a sturdy building.

[00:04:29]Now, we just spent a bunch of time talking about Tuesday, but Tuesday's story really starts on Monday. Theater Rapids, Rockford, Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay. Uh you guys are under an enhanced risk. We're talking about 7.3 million people up here inside of it.

[00:04:41]We've got a weakening morning round of storms coming through first and then the main show is going to fire near the front late afternoon and evening into Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The warm sector over Iowa could recover to explosive instability underneath 50 to 60 knots of wind shear. That's a pretty loaded atmosphere. And early supercells once again are going to be able to drop large hail and the tornado concern over here is actually going to be a little bit elevated, especially near that surface low around northeast Iowa.

[00:05:09]storms should quickly merge into a Boeing line or Boeing clusters packing 75 mileph plus wind gusts which is going to be enough to snap power poles damage roofs and make interstate driving very dangerous. Monday is also the opening of the EAA air venture in Oshkosh. So if you're around the aircraft displays or campgrounds, know your nearest sturdy shelter before the late day storms show up. I'd keep weatherwise open with the lightning detection layer turned on because those strikes are going to pop in real time and it's going to help you have a head start on the walk to safety while everybody else is still looking at the sky trying to figure out what's happening without the brilliance of weatherwise. Now, wildfire smoke and leftover morning clouds could sap some of the energy, but whatever complex survives Monday night uh becomes uh the wild card that I mentioned for Tuesday morning. So, the relation here between the storms Monday and Tuesday is very important. and we really don't know what's going to happen Tuesday until we figure out what happens Monday night.

[00:06:10]Both of these days are strong candidates for live streams. Okay, so make sure you're subscribed and you got notifications turned on. There's a good chance I'll be live for both days. And we're about to get so much deeper into that. But first, let's shout out today's awesome sponsor. All right, let's talk about something that's probably not on your mind enough. Your personal information. It's out there on the internet right now. Your name, your address, your phone number, maybe even information about your relatives could be floating around out there. And that data being out there is a huge privacy risk that could make you a target for identity theft and fishing scams. But that's where Delete Me comes in. Delete Me finds your personal information on hundreds of data broker websites and it removes it for you. In a few days, you get a detailed report showing what they found and what they've removed. And they do all the heavy lifting for you. and they keep monitoring so your info doesn't just pop right back up after they get rid of it the first time. It's simple, it's effective, and honestly, there's a huge peace of mind that comes with it. If you want to take control of your privacy, head over to joindeme.com/ryanhal.

[00:07:10]Get 20% off deleteme consumer plans when you use promo code ryanhal at checkout.

[00:07:15]That's joined me.com/ryanhal with code ryanhal for 20% off delete me consumer plans. Now, thank you to Delete Me for sponsoring this video. And let's get back into the weather forecast. Now, let's all take us a breath because uh Monday is going to be beautiful across the Great Lakes and Northeast. That's tomorrow. And the Ohio Valley is going to stay sunny up ahead of Tuesday. The Northeast tops out in the upper 70s and 80s with due points in the 50s. And central Kentucky is going to climb up into the upper 80s and low 90s.

[00:07:44]Worcester, Providence, and Springfield land in the perfect territory. Sunshine, comfortable humidity, light winds. Soak it up while you can because we are going to have some uh you know pretty significant weather moving through. The one catch is of course the wildfire haze that's lingering from Ohio into parts of the northeast. So check the air quality before you go outside. But this is going to be a much nicer weather situation than when the storms start coming through. That's for sure. Okay, so we've been tracking this tropical system with the NHC since they first highlighted it about 3 or 4 days ago. And now we've got a new player in the Gulf. We've got tropical depression 2 about 170 mi southeast of Panama City with 30 mph winds. And we've already got tropical storm watches in effect for the Florida panhandle. This one's going to be tropical storm Bertha if it becomes a tropical storm. And we do believe it's going to, especially by late Monday. And rough surf and rip currents and all that good stuff are going to make the Gulf beaches dangerous before the center even gets close to land. Weak steering carries the system very slowly northwesterly before high pressure building in the south bends it straight west towards the northern Gulf Coast by midweek. Dry air and mild to moderate shear and possible land interaction all argue against rapid strengthening. I'm expecting a disorganized rainheavy system for now. Don't sleep on the rain though. 2 to 4 in with isolated totals near 8 in through Thursday could flood streets from western Florida through southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana and eventually over there towards Texas as well. A 1 to three foot storm surge is possible for the Indian Pass where normally dry spots on the coast could take on water especially around high tide. And then back to the severe weather, the threat doesn't end when the Tuesday corridor is clearing the coast. The damaging wind risk actually is going to slide south into the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic area for Wednesday. We've got a 15% severe area for 19.6 million people, including Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond, Norfol, and Virginia Beach. Some of these storms may sneak in from Virginia late Tuesday, but Wednesday's peak is going to hinge on whether or not that front arrives during the peak max afternoon heating. Nearly 2 in of atmospheric moisture and about 2,000 jewels per kilogram of cape could organize clusters and lines through Wednesday evening. And damaging wind is going to be the main threat. I really don't think we have much of a tornado threat down here at all with this. Now out west, the monsoon just keeps swinging. Flash flooding is staying in play from southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Up towards the north and west is another round of storms, fires. Moisture is running 25 to 50% above normal east of Tucson. And some storms around El Paso have already dumped 2 to 4 in at rates of 3 to 5 in per hour. That's the kind of rain that turns a bone dry wash into a churning river and sends water through slot canyons, burn scars, and desert roads with almost no warning. Okay. Now, by Tuesday, the focus is going to shift towards the Arizona New Mexico border and western New Mexico, while northern Arizona is going to stay vulnerable to training storms and hail. And don't expect any relief anytime soon. The CPC week 3 to four outlook favors above normal precipitation for the Southwest and Great Basin through mid August. So, the monsoon is not going anywhere. Now, if you're stormwary, here's your light at the end of the tunnel. After Wednesday's Carolina round, organized severe weather is going to back off through the weekend as a weaker upper level wind system is going to start to limit storm organization. Okay, the next threat doesn't really come with a siren, and it's heat, of course, with another ridge expanding from the Great Basin and High Plains towards the southern and central US. Much of the south is going to run 5 to 10° above average with humidity pushing some heat indices into the 105 to 1 to 10 degree plus range.

[00:11:35]So, it's going to keep being hot. That's the next thing that we're looking forward to. It's not going to be as hot as last time, but it's going to be hot.

[00:11:41]Now, definitely circle July 27th through July 29th on your calendar because we do have a moderate risk of extreme heat covering much of the plains with heat indices possibly topping 110 as far north as southeastern South Dakota and Iowa. These storms are going to quiet down after Wednesday, but the next weekend danger switches from storms racing overhead to heat that stays dangerously long after sunset. And that's all the weather talk I have for you today. Thank you so much for watching this. Again, we could be going live Tuesday and Wednesday or tomorrow and Tuesday. I don't know. We We'll be going live one or both of those days.

[00:12:15]Thank you guys so much for watching.

[00:12:16]Make sure you slap a like on this video.

[00:12:18]Subscribe if you haven't already, and I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.