This Next DANGEROUS Storm Coming in 72 HOURS...

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Today is Saturday, May 30th, 2026, the second to last day of May, and I have to start this video by telling you something that sounds like it belongs in January, not the end of spring. Snow flurries have been reported as far south as the higher elevations of New England overnight. Boston and Worcester are seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 30s this morning with wind chills in the 20s. And in the higher terrain of western New Hampshire and Vermont, there may have been a dusting of actual accumulation. This is May 30th. In living memory, very few people can recall late May snow flurries reaching this far south in New England. And yet, here we are, because this is what happens when a 999 millibar low pressure system drops into New England at the tail end of one of the coldest and most relentlessly active May weather patterns in years.

[00:00:48]Meanwhile, out in the central plains right now, instability values are charging toward 4,000 joules per kilogram, and the dry line is sharpening. The same country, the same day, two completely different realities.

[00:01:00]That is May 2026 in a nutshell. Let's get into everything. Let me start with what's happening in New England right now, because I want to acknowledge the extraordinary nature of this cold event before we move into the severe weather story for the plains. The low pressure system that dropped into the northeast overnight bottomed out near 999 millibars, a meaningful surface low for late May. The northerly flow on the backside of this system has dragged genuinely arctic air into New England, producing the wind chills 20s and temperatures in the mid 30s that residents are waking up to this morning.

[00:01:34]The snowfall was real, flurries reaching lower elevations, a potential dusting in the White Mountains and Green Mountains.

[00:01:41]Even if accumulation stay minimal except at elevation, the mere fact of late May snow flurries in southern New England is remarkable. The average last frost date for Boston is mid-April. We are 6 weeks past that. This has been the most stubbornly cold and frost active spring the northern tier has seen in a very long time, and it is going out with a genuinely bizarre meteorological statement. By the way, if you'd like specific weather forecasts for your region or city, please leave them in the comments. I'll answer them individually as time allows. Also, if you like the video and subscribe to my channel, you'd be very grateful. Now, let's move on.

[00:02:19]The wind story in New England today is actually the more impactful element of this system. With the low barely offshore, winds are going to howl across coastal New England throughout the day Saturday. Wind gusts over 40 mph along the coast and potentially higher on exposed headlands. Wind advisories are in effect or likely across portions of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts.

[00:02:41]If you had outdoor plans in New England today where it's cold, blustery, and unpleasant, keep that in mind. The cold also creates a very specific risk for gardeners across New England, upstate New York, and the northern tier that I've been talking about for weeks. If you have warm season plants in the ground anywhere from the Great Lakes through New England this morning, I hope you covered them last night. The temperatures this morning are cold enough in many northern locations to damage unprotected tomatoes, peppers, and basil. This is the last frost event of the season for most areas, but last is a label we only know in hindsight, and this spring has fooled people into thinking it was over multiple times already. Now, let me turn to the serious severe weather story for today, the Central Plains, because this is the setup that has my full attention this Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk in place for western Nebraska and South Dakota, covering the corridor from Rapid City and Sturgis through the Sand Hills of Nebraska down toward North Platte. And I want to be direct, I believe this gets upgraded to an enhanced risk before today's storms fire. The trend over the past 24 to 48 hours has been consistently toward a more aggressive setup, with each model run showing stronger wind shear and more storm fuel than the previous one. That kind of upward trend in model data, combined with the ingredients I'm seeing in the current atmospheric analysis, suggests the SPC's current designation may be conservative. Here's the atmospheric setup driving today's event.

[00:04:08]A powerful upper-level low, a bowling ball trough, is spinning across the northern Rockies and western Great Plains. This is a negatively tilted trough, meaning it's oriented from southwest to northeast in the upper atmosphere. A negatively tilted trough is the most efficient atmospheric configuration for generating severe weather because it maximizes both the rotational dynamics and the lifting mechanism simultaneously. When you combine a negatively tilted trough with a dry line setting up across the plains and instability values approaching 4,000 J/kg, you have a setup that demands respect.

[00:04:44]The primary severe weather window today is 4:00 to 9:00 p.m. local time. Storms are going to fire as discrete supercells during the afternoon peak heating hours, and the threats during that discrete phase are large hail, golf ball size or larger, with some cells potentially producing hail significantly larger than that. And a tornado threat that is real and conditional on storm mode. Here's the key variable. In western South Dakota and near Rapid City, the dew points this afternoon are forecast to be in the low to mid-50s, sufficient for severe weather, but not the richest moisture. The tornado threat in that specific northern corridor is more conditional. Further south in the central and southern plains, Oklahoma and Kansas, the dew points surge into the low 60s, and that is where the environment becomes more classically dangerous for tornado production. The significant tornado parameter values are maximized in two zones today, one across South Dakota and another in central to southern Oklahoma and Kansas. If discrete supercells fire in either of these zones, tornadoes are explicitly on the table. And in the southern zone with the negatively tilted trough and those 60° dew points, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Let me give you the timeline for today. Around 2:00 to 3:00 p.m., storms begin circling near the low-pressure system over Wyoming, initially struggling a bit for moisture in the immediate vicinity of the low. By 4:00 to 5:00 p.m., more organized supercells attempt to fire in western Nebraska and South Dakota. By this same window, con- ditional storm development begins in Oklahoma and Kansas. And if those storms fire, it is go time. The discrete supercell phase in Oklahoma and Kansas between 4:00 and 7:00 p.m. is the window where very large hail and a significant tornado are most plausible.

[00:06:30]By 8:00 to 9:00 p.m., um the storms in South Dakota and Nebraska are upscaling into a more linear mode, bowing squall line, and the threat transitions to a wide swath of destructive straight-line winds. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible with any organized bow echo that develops. And this threat could push eastward through the overnight hours towards Sioux Falls and potentially Bismarck. City specific for today, Rapid City and Sturgis, you are in the bull's-eye for the afternoon supercell phase. Large hail is a near certainty if a supercell fires near your area. Tornado threat is conditional but real. Have your shelter plan confirmed before 3:00 p.m. Scotts Bluff and North Platte in Nebraska, also in the primary risk zone. Wind and hail today with a damaging wind threat growing through the evening as the MCS develops. For those south of the primary enhanced risk zone, Wichita, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Amarillo, you are in a marginal risk today, but a conditional one that could surprise. The dry line in Oklahoma and Kansas is working with atmosphere that has tropical-level moisture for this part of the country in late May. Any storm that fires along that dry line is going to be a significant severe weather producer.

[00:07:44]Keep your radar accessible all afternoon and evening. For tomorrow, Sunday, May 31st, the final day of May and the last day of what has been one of the most active and extraordinary May weather months in recent American history, the severe weather threat continues but the geography shifts. The risk area extends from the Dakotas southward through eastern Nebraska along I-80 into western Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. This includes Omaha and the Kansas City metro. I believe Sunday will be upgraded from its current designation as we get more clarity through today's events.

[00:08:16]Instability values Sunday are similar to today's and if anything the moisture return could be slightly better as the system evolves. Omaha and Kansas City specifically are areas I'm watching closely for Sunday's severe weather potential. Now, let me look ahead to the first week of June because the pattern evolution is important to understand.

[00:08:36]that has dominated the last several days, the ridge in the central US sandwiched between two troughs, is going to persist through at least the first few days of June before beginning to break down. What that means practically, the southern tier continues its active, wet, stormy pattern with daily flooding and severe weather threats from Texas through the Gulf states and into the southeast. The northern tier sits under the ridge with warm, sunny, dry conditions and the northeast continues dealing with the residual effects of the current cold pattern. Temperatures near or below normal, unsettled at times.

[00:09:10]There is a tropical signal in the extended model guidance for the Gulf of Mexico in the June 4th to 6th time frame that I want to acknowledge. The European model has been consistently showing some form of low pressure development in the Gulf with precipitation spreading northward and eastward from that system.

[00:09:28]This is not a forecast for a specific named storm. We are too far out for that level of specificity, but both the European and GFS models are hinting at Gulf activity, and with the Gulf sea surface temperatures already running above average and the El Nino's wind shear effect not yet fully suppressing Atlantic activity in the western Gulf, early season development is worth watching. The biggest threat from any Gulf system at this range would be rainfall. Potentially heavy rainfall moving northward from the Gulf into Texas, Louisiana, and the Southeast, then recurving into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. More details on this as we get into early next week. Speaking of El Nino, the pattern for the summer season is coming into clearer focus, and I want to give you the full picture. We're officially in weak El Nino at positive 0.8 on the 3.4 index and climbing. El Nino is expected to reach moderate status by June and continue strengthening through fall. Here's how that shapes the summer outlook week by week and beyond. June week one, active subtropical jet continuing to deliver moisture and storm systems to the southern plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. High pressure over the upper Midwest providing dry, sunny conditions there. The Pacific Northwest intensifying its drought under persistent high pressure. Above normal precipitation for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, the Gulf Coast states, and extending into the Southeast and up the East Coast. June week two, the ridge begins building further west and precipitation chances start waking up across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Great Lakes. The southern plains begins to dry out slightly as that ridge backs up. The heat core is now more concentrated over the desert Southwest and southern Rockies. June week three, Father's Day weekend, a northwest flow pattern returns across the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley driving storm complexes called ridge riders eastward over the top of the southern ridge. This is when derecho season begins in earnest for the Midwest. Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky are in the primary derecho corridor. Father's Day weekend carries some potential for organized storm clusters. For the overall summer season, the core of heat settles over the Pacific Northwest, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, where a drought has been building all spring and will intensify significantly through July and August. Below normal temperatures in the East for much of June, warming toward normal to above normal by late summer.

[00:11:51]Active monsoon for the Four Corners, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, above average moisture expected July through August. Derecho season peak mid-July through mid-August for the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt. For the Atlantic hurricane season, El Niño is suppressing activity in the main development region through increased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and sea surface temperatures in the MDR are running cooler than average. The most likely threats are homegrown systems from the Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas area, or close to the East Coast where El Niño's sheer influence is diminished. Early season Gulf activity is worth watching given current conditions. Overall, Atlantic season looks quiet by historical standards, but quiet doesn't mean zero. For the Eastern Pacific, an entirely different story.

[00:12:38]The Pacific hurricane season is going to be active. The positive Pacific meridional mode combined with El Niño's warm equatorial Pacific waters has loaded the Eastern Pacific with extraordinary fuel for tropical cyclone development. Multiple storms are likely to develop in the Eastern Pacific through June and July, and some may threaten Hawaii indirectly with elevated wave heights and swell. Here is your action list for today and the week ahead. Today, Saturday, Western Nebraska and South Dakota primary severe weather bullseye 4:00 to 9:00 p.m. Enhanced risk, likely large hail and tornadoes during discrete supercell phase, destructive MCS overnight. Vehicles covered before 3:00 p.m. In Rapid City, Scotts Bluff, and North Platte. Oklahoma and Kansas conditional severe weather threat, dry line and tropical moisture levels. New England, cold, blustery, near historic late May chill. Plants covered, wind advisories in effect on the coast. Tomorrow Sunday, the severe weather shifts to Omaha and Kansas City corridor. Expect upgrades as confidence grows. First week of June, watch for Gulf tropical signal developing June 4th to 6th. Heavy rainfall potential for the South and Southeast. Derecho season begins building by mid-June for the Midwest. Drop your city in the comments right now. Tell me what May 30th looks like where you are. Tell me if you're in the plains getting ready for today's severe weather, or if you're in New England bundled up in late May jacket weather that nobody expected. I want to hear from all of you as we close out this extraordinary month of May.

[00:14:09]Subscribe if you haven't already, hit the notification bell, and I will see you tomorrow with a Sunday severe weather update and the latest on that June tropical signal. Stay safe out there, everyone, and I'll see you in the next one.