El Niño versus La Niña

[00:00:00]And we are, we're expecting that strong El Niño already seeing some pretty strong signs that it's starting to develop. Every time the Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center, all those organizations, they'll give us updates.

[00:00:10]They keep upping that percentage of El Niño developing in the next couple months here. So, very strong signs it's there, but just like we say it only takes one storm, every El Niño is also different, right? So, you know, '97-'98 obviously a pretty harsh season for us in terms of severe weather, but doesn't necessarily mean that's going to happen.

[00:00:27]You know what I mean? But, the dynamics are there. So, you always got to keep an eye on it. And let's talk about it. I have kind of an explainer on El Niño for you to give you an idea of why we say this. So, essentially, when El Niño develops, the Pacific jet, the tropical jet stream, goes a little further north.

[00:00:43]And what that does is create more wind shear, which yes, does mean that we have usually less storms. It's a less active hurricane season because tropical systems and wind shear do not go well together. That makes them very disorganized and doesn't really allow them to develop, right? But, what wind shear does in terms of severe weather, for things like thunderstorms and tornadic activity, that's an ingredient needed to get some spin in the air to create that higher tornado threat. And the jet stream also steers weather systems our way, hence usually a cooler and wetter fall and winter when El Niño sets up. So, yes, the dynamics are technically there for a more active severe weather season in the fall and winter when when El Niño's in place, but it also usually means a less active hurricane season for us here in the Atlantic. It's kind of a double-edged sword.