This Hurricane Season Outlook May Surprise You (2026)

追加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Noah's annual hurricane season forecast was just released and while we've been talking about a likely below normal season, I am personally surprised at just how low their forecast goes. Post in the comments what you are thinking and what you think of their forecast.

[00:00:14]Here is their official outlook. 8 to 14 name storms. They always do a range with three to six of those becoming hurricanes and then one to three major storms. The average is right on the bottom there. So, in a normal season, quote unquote, we see 14 name storms, seven of those becoming hurricanes with three majors. So, we are way below.

[00:00:34]We've been talking maybe 10 to 12 just loosely as we've been doing these videos leading up to hurricane season. But to see the bottom end of their range be in the single digits is certainly something that we have not seen in quite some time. So, surprised me anyway. And I like to know if you were surprised by that. I think it's right though. We've been talking about some of the limiting factors. Of course, El Nino, a pretty strong one, should be here by the middle of hurricane season. And there's something else that we've talked about at length in these videos. It's the sea surface temperature anomaly pattern. And right now, as we take a look at the main development region of the Atlantic, that's this area here from about the Cabo Verde Islands to the Lesser Antilles, there's a little bit of blue there. So, it is below normal in the main development region where we have a lot of warmth up here. That is not a signal for a hyperactive season or even an active season. Uh certainly it's much much different than 2023. I know we've had a lot of comments in some of the videos well hey 2023 we had a pretty strong El Nino but number of storms were way above normal and that is correct but if you remember before 2023 the entire Atlantic was juiced way above normal record warmth almost everywhere and that helped to kind of counteract some of the effects from El Nino. Now, on the flip side, the Pacific hurricane season is going to likely go gang busters. So, I'm looking at you in Hawaii for the potential to be on target for a lot of these storms as they work their way to the west. We're going to have more on that in another video as we get rolling through the Pacific hurricane season, which is officially underway, by the way. So, in an El Nino year, more wind shear is likely, especially through the Caribbean. So, I am expecting a pretty quiet Caribbean season. Still not zero.

[00:02:16]We can still get hurricanes of course, but it just limits the number of storms and certainly limits the strength, especially in the Caribbean where you see that highlight. It also adds to the atmospheric stability. Storms need instability to grow, to develop and thrive. And there's extra stability on the Atlantic side and more windshare with all of the action or most of the action should be anyway focusing on the eastern and central Pacific. So, with that said, with that below normal expectation, that does not mean everybody's out of the woods. Everybody should still prepare the same way. I'm in Florida. I'm certainly getting ready the same way, even if it was an active season coming out of the pipeline.

[00:02:56]Hopefully, again, those numbers come in fruition or even lower than that. That would be awesome. Now, with that said, part two, there is an opportunity to get things off to a quick start. We've been talking about this for the last couple of weeks that the long range pattern would suggest at least a big surge in atmospheric moisture. Now, throwing out the hype, we've talked about this as well. This is not hype. This is pattern recognition. We're looking at some of the ensembles long range. If there was models posted everywhere, just single model runs with no context. That's a little different. It's way too far out into the future to be able to gauge on where something would go during the first week of June. That's the highlight. But I want to show you this.

[00:03:36]This is the atmospheric moisture. And where you see the orange turn to red and rust, that is where we have the deep tropical moisture. And as we go towards the end of May, look at this surge here coming through the Yucatan, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, into the Florida Straits, back up into Florida, into the southwest Atlantic. This is really the first shot that we are tapped in across the North Gulf Coast and Southeast United States into some deep tropical moisture. Now boron in that could be a tropical system and again that is something that we have looked at for the last couple of weeks. The Men Julian oscillation to get nitty-gritty that is going to be in a favorable phase to help to force up thunderstorms at the very least. I want to show you some ensembles. Now remember, you're going to hear me say this a lot through the course of the season. We don't look at individual model runs this far out. And when I say this far out, it's for the first week of June, which is still 10 to 14 days, give or take, away from any kind of thing even developing. But again, we're a weather channel here and we're looking at the pattern. That's what I like to do. Look at the overall pattern, the atmospheric clues, and then watch the overall pattern change and see how the forecast models bite on. This is the Google Deep Mind. This was by far the best performing model or ensemble uh that we've had over the last year since it's really come into existence and uh come into the come to the fold here. You see a few members are online. There's 50 of them. Only three show some kind of development, weak development. Only three are online, but it's far out. We will see if we continue to build. So, this is kind of our homework assignment over the next couple of weeks to see if we get more of these Google DeepMind ensembles on board. Uh, they all show something weak. This would be awesome.

[00:05:22]Actually, I never root for storms, okay?

[00:05:24]Want to be clear about that. But Florida and parts of the Southeast are in a very bad drought. Some places the worst drought in 25 plus years. Getting a low-end tropical system like this would do numbers to help the drought situation. So, this would not be a bad thing. And again, I'm I'm trying to show you guys and those that have been around on the channel know that I that I hate the hype and don't like talking about that stuff. Um, and like to dispel that stuff, but that tropical moisture would be awesome for Florida. It would be awesome for the southeast corner of United States, Cayman Islands, Western Cuba, all of the above. So, this is going to be the GFS ensembles. More members are online. something born out of the western Caribbean, Yucatan, Western Cuba, and then lifting back up towards the Eastern Gulf, maybe the North Gulf Coast. So again, there is certainly a little bit of something out there.

[00:06:17]European ensembles, there's a few members out of the 51 there. You see a couple off the southeast corner of the United States. Some of them develop them up there. Some of them are in the Western Gulf. Again, it's way too far out to know if, when, or where. We just know that we have all of those ingredients kind of coming together. The large scale forcing with that MJO, it's going to force up thunderstorms. Wind shear is low. We've talked about that.

[00:06:43]Water temperatures are way above normal, at least in that region. We talked about the below normal temperatures in the main development region. But over here, all the orange and red, I mean, the water is plenty warm. 80 to 85 degrees in that red patch there in the western Caribbean, Eastern Gulf. Water temperatures plenty warm enough. Wind shear is low. Uh the atmospheric moisture I showed you earlier, that is going to be high. So, all of the ingredients to get that tropical mess that I showed you into something organized is certainly there. Thank you guys a ton for tuning in. If you found this content helpful, if you want to track the tropics with me all hurricane season long, and again, I want you guys to prepare as if this was going to be an active season because it only takes one, please promise me you'll do so. I love to know how you are preparing because it's always better to just have all that stuff and not need it and maybe just have a non-hurricane party at the end of the season when you eat your hurricane snacks um and things like that. But just be prepared. That's the message that I I want to get across is just no matter what the long range forecast or the seasonal forecast suggest. Just be prepared. If you want to hang out with me all hurricane season long as we talk about the tropics and the weather across the greater United States and Canada and Mexico, you come to the right place. Do me a favor, hit that subscribe button, join the team. Love to have you on board, and I will catch you guys in the next video.