Fed Frozen, America Gains Advantage - Dale Smothers #6390

Ajouté : 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]American dominance is a must headed into uh the next decade for sure and and in our opinion the next century and what you've seen from this administration it seems to be a laidout plan and strategy to say yes >> this hemisphere our you know let's say this side of of the globe is going to belong to America and and democracy uh trying our best to expel any sign of communism or socialism. You're listening to Carrie [music] Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else. To thrive in today's trying times, you need [music] the Financial Survival Network. Now more than ever. Go to financial survivaletwork.com and get your free newsletter and gift.

[00:00:48]Financial [music] Survival Network. Now more than ever.

[00:00:56]>> And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.

[00:01:01]I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, we had news coming out of the Fed. Uh well, on other news, basically the uh criminal investigation against the Fed chair Jerome Powell has been ended. I guess he's going to leave peacefully. Perhaps.

[00:01:21]Uh that remains to be seen, but our good friend Dale Smothers is with us now. And Dale, it's great to have you back. So, we have a Fed decision which was basically do nothing. I guess they figured they could get away with it.

[00:01:37]Consumer confidence looking up and uh the rest of the world's falling apart, but things in the good old US of A are going according to schedule, right?

[00:01:48]>> Yeah. Exactly. you know, especially if you if you look at this from a relative standpoint, Carrie, I mean, Europe and Asia are in a crisis, a real crisis. Uh, you know, and you know, you you may not necessarily like everything that Donald Trump has done over the last 6 months, but a lot of the moves that have taken place starting with Venezuela, Greenland, and now the straight of horses has really set up America to be the dominant. Although we are still seeing higher than desired gas prices, we are the dominant player in the energy game, especially with this breakdown that we're seeing in OPEC. Who knows what that looks like? But but exactly what you said, right, coming at the top of the show, I think that the consumer is confident. Labor uh remains fairly strong. We just saw that print drop this morning. Uh you've got inflation this, you know, in my opinion is way too high.

[00:02:44]uh the measure that that the Fed desires, the PCE, came back at 3.5 yearover-year, which is higher than we would hope. And and so the Fed's decision to do nothing, I think is warranted here. You know, especially with all the data they're looking at. I think you've got a new Fed chair coming in with Kevin Worsh that's going to look at this and say that the the economy can run hot. But even staring at oil at over $100, over $120 a barrel at the beginning of the market today, over $120 a barrel, it's fallen since, but it's still over a hundred. I mean, it's tough for you to really make a decision here if uh one 50 point cut or 25 point cut could could kick even more inflation into the system. I think this no decision or let's say a decision to do nothing was probably the right one, Gary.

[00:03:33]>> Yeah. Well, uh, the longer they hold off, I think it's inevitable they're going to cut rates, but the longer they hold off, uh, then the more room they have when they eventually have to start cutting. You know, when the whole thing started, I wrote an article saying that basically interest rates were not going down, they were going up. That would be the big surprise. I wrote that like two months ago and been pretty much spot on.

[00:04:03]>> Spot on. Spot on. And this is why we're telling a lot of investors right now that, you know, bond funds still may not be the most favorable instrument to put safe money. And we like building portfolios with a risk on risk off approach to retirement investing. You know, we work with retirees predominantly those who are, you know, let's say over the age of 59 and a half.

[00:04:23]They have they have access to the money that they saved in 401ks and now they can actually do something with those monies. Those who are close to retirement, we say 5 years or or less away from retirement. It's important for you to understand that losses hurt you more than gains help you. And if you've got a piece of your portfolio that's supposed to be safe and it's just moving in tandem uh with the overall market, we we look back at March, my goodness, the the typical balance portfolio struggled there looking for alternatives in that bond exposure where that 40% what we call risk off money belongs may be a wise decision because rates are certainly in our opinion you look two years out I think rates are down but between now and then who knows and and even cutting interest rates you know this Gary Even cutting interest rates doesn't automatically mean that uh that the 10year follows. So this is this is the dilemma we face now as the Fed.

[00:05:17][snorts] >> Yeah. I mean uh they're in a box, but the longer they can put off cutting uh the better off they're going to be. Um let the rest of the world decline a little bit more gives them more flexibility. Flow of funds still coming into the United States. I think that's obvious. Sure.

[00:05:36]>> And uh yeah, so I I don't know if you this is a a little off topic, but I don't know if you caught that article about the uh town that uh rebelled against a uh data center and basically shut it down because they didn't want to see their electric rates skyrocket. Did you happen to catch that one? I >> I I caught a glimpse of it. I didn't read the entire article, but I saw that and I thought it was interesting cuz you know energy prices are already high and AI data center moves to your town, it becomes even more expensive. Uh that that is an interesting play there. What what's the world do about that? What does America do about that energy crisis?

[00:06:16]>> Yeah, that's a good question. And uh and I'm not sure the answer to that other than uh what uh what's happening is hardening the grid and making the grid uh more um more uh resilient and uh I don't know maybe Elon Musk is right. You just send the data centers up in space. Right.

[00:06:41]>> Exactly. Exact. And and you know, we talk about that as if it's uh you know, hyperbole or a dream, but the reality is this space war is heating up. American dominance in space is important as it is on Earth in our opinion. Uh it seems far-fetched, but but you know, if you could outsource data centers to space and have an endless supply of energy from the sun, that makes perfect sense.

[00:07:06]Until then, I think you've got to allow these data centers to uh maybe build their own grid and plug into that perhaps if that data center does go to space. Now, we have more power plants.

[00:07:18]We have more energy that we can consume here on Earth. Some sort of federal system makes a lot of sense in our opinion to be able to at least co-op.

[00:07:26]I'm not necessarily saying you fund the entire thing, but co-oping in some way or giving uh a little bit less red tape to those individuals to go out and create their own power plants. But then, just like you said, you got to find those neighborhoods that allow these power plants to be built right in their backyard cuz that's uh that's not necessarily the the most uh beautiful thing to look at.

[00:07:49]>> Yeah. Well, obviously you got to go nuclear. There's really no other way to do this.

[00:07:56]not with the speed that we're looking to do it at and the capacity. Um there's really nothing else you could do but nuclear.

[00:08:06]>> Mhm. Yeah, I agree. And and I think we've got an administration that's far more favorable to nuclear power than we've seen in a long time. uh you know so this this idea that nuclear renewables uh coal uh fracking clearly oil all of these things are are really helping American dominance in our opinion I think that and I think you share this sentiment American dominance is a must headed into uh the next decade for sure and and in our opinion the next century and what you've seen from this administration it seems to be a laidout plan and strategy to Yes, >> this hemisphere, our you know, let's say this side of of the globe is going to belong to America and and democracy uh trying our best to expel any sign of communism or socialism that is excessive. You think about Cuba, you know, you'd hate to you'd hate to hear that in the news lines right now, especially with the price of oil where it's at. You don't want too many fronts.

[00:09:08]But I don't think that this administration is bluffing when they say they're considering a takeover of Cuba because it fits the narrative that they are after. It started again with Greenland, Venezuela.

[00:09:19]>> Yeah.

[00:09:19]>> How taking care of Iran?

[00:09:21]>> I couldn't agree more and uh I don't think there's uh any other way that that it can be done. Um otherwise uh basically the US was heading for relevancy.

[00:09:34]>> Yes. and uh becoming just another country. Uh you know the problem is that uh many of you out there don't really understand the power dynamics. Basically I wrote an article in May totally outlining what was going to happen. Once I saw that the US was intent on taking back the Panama Canal, uh the rest was obvious. then Venezuela was going and then Cuba, Iran, and uh basically the article was that uh China just lost the third opium war and uh once Xi agreed to shut them down. You know, you see the amount of fentanyl coming into the US has greatly diminished. That was kind of the green light. And you haven't heard China talking about taking over Taiwan lately.

[00:10:30]You know, they saber rattle once in a while. It's always a possibility. I just don't believe it's going to happen.

[00:10:37]>> Yeah, you're right. And and incredible insight on your part. You know, you you uh you mentioned something to me probably about a year, maybe a year and a half, maybe even two years ago, that uh the the left seems to and not to take this super political here. I mean, clear we we want we want investors. We want uh uh American citizens to prosper no matter who's in in power. But I thought it was unique that you said u uh the left seems to take Trump literally but not seriously.

[00:11:07]>> Right.

[00:11:07]>> They should definitely take him seriously but not literally. Man, that was a revolutionary way to think about Donald Trump because what he has laid out, you know, if you read between the lines, you could see this coming for for his second presidency. And he has no one. I mean, I hate to say it this way, but he really has no one to answer to because he's not running for re-election here. Uh, and so >> it's amazing.

[00:11:29]>> This is uh this is definitely a shift in geopolitical powers and for the better, I think, of America with a little bit of suffering and again relative to the world, our suffering, you know, thankfully it's not with human lives.

[00:11:42]Clearly, there have been some lives lost in this war already. And thank God for those men and women who support this mission uh and would lay down their life for this beautiful flag that we all pledge allegiance to and the and the standards that it believes in. But I think those those standards and those lively those livelihood uh values that we all hold to were under attack consistently for the last probably two decades. They've been under attack. It didn't end with 9/11. And so with this idea that we are taking back global dominance and America first mentality being front and center, there's a little bit of suffering from our pocketbook.

[00:12:18]There's no doubt about it. No doubt about it. I think if you're participating in the US economy, uh it from a from an investor standpoint, you're prospering on one side of your pocketbook, but the other side where you got to pay out is still struggling, no doubt. But it's relative to the world, it is far better than it would be had we have had this same issue. And I I was just on the on a different show just a couple days ago talking to a host that is definitely left-leaning and I asked him this question. Where would we be in let's say 5 years if Iran or sooner if Iran had a nuclear weapon right now?

[00:12:52]Same situation but with the leverage that they would have from that nuclear weapon. Where would the end be? We would not have an end in sight anywhere anytime soon.

[00:13:01]>> It's very true. Could not agree with you more on that pale. And uh actually Scott Jennings uh the guy from CNN who's the uh right-wing uh conservative foil for the show, he was the one who said it that the left uh takes Trump literally but not seriously and the right takes him seriously but not literally. And I thought that was a brilliant observation. I wish it was mine and I could claim I could claim credit for it, but it doesn't really matter because it really sums the whole thing up quite well. And uh so next year, come uh well, come the end of the year when we're doing the uh wrapup, what asset classes do the best? What kind which ones kind of just struggle and which ones hit the cam?

[00:13:52]>> Yeah, good good good question here. I think that you've got a consumer that is confident and if this confidence continues as you as you alluded to at the beginning of the show uh the confident report that the consumer confidence report that came back was very good you know in spite of all the headlines in spite of all the the possibilities of uh of a recession that you know the left may have us to believe the consumer is still confident if the consumer continues to spend I think you're going to see technology leading the way through 2026 a lot of The same playbook that was in uh in session here for 2025 is now going to be in session for 2026. As long as the consumer is spending because the consumer is spending at places, maybe not always Apple, maybe not always at Meta with advertising or s with Google. It may not be those companies per se that you're spending money at, but the companies you are spending money at, the consumer is spending money at the malls, at uh, you know, online shopping, these places, those places are going to AI to make themselves more efficient. And for that reason, AI continues to prosper uh, these these tech companies. So, tech leads the way here. But again, if the consumer remains confident, I think that you've got a lot of opportunities in just consumer staples and consumer discretionaries along the way. And one other uh sector that I think you should definitely be leaning into here is the utility sector for the reason that we discussed uh power is going to be in high demand as long as things continue to grow the way they are. If oil stays high, uh, clearly you would you would see that creep into the economy and things could slow down. Carrie, this is why again we talk to investors every day about understanding the difference between uh the income money that you need to be stable and liquid versus the money that you've got out seeking opportunities. If you've got money that's five or six years away from being needed for income, go hunting for opportunities and they will present themselves. Volatility is going to be the price of admission in the market.

[00:16:00]But if you've got money that you must have today or tomorrow for income, be careful. We like using options to give you that ability to protect some of the downside and still participate in the upside. Hope that answers that question.

[00:16:14]>> All right. I think you answered it uh with distinction and clarity. We appreciate you coming on. Dell, just tell us how we connect with you, how we find you on the web. and uh and your website and all that good stuff.

[00:16:30]>> Absolutely. So, our website rdwealth.com uh you can go there and learn all about our philosophy and and who we are as a as a firm. And we have a radio show and podcast. The radio show is more local.

[00:16:42]The podcast national. It's it's uh retirement matters podcast with Dale Smothers. The Retirement Matters podcast. If you search that on any of your podcast streaming services, you can find that. We love being on your show just getting this message out. Our goal is to help educate the listener just like you on ways to retire successfully.

[00:17:00]That's what it's all about. Of course, our office phone number 270600 plan. You have any questions for us?

[00:17:07]>> Excellent. Hey, always a pleasure.

[00:17:10]Thanks for the insights. We'll talk to you again soon. Questions, comments for Dale, myself, shoot me an email, klcylutz.com.

[00:17:17]The Substack Financial Survivaletwork.com.

[00:17:21]I've totally moved to Substack. the lawsuit. Uh I will have some updates.

[00:17:25]The parking lawsuit, but it's moving ahead. Had a little uh uh well, you won't believe who's uh the judge on the case now. Judge Eileene Cannon. Uh she was of uh notoriety on the Trump case.

[00:17:42]She basically didn't just throw the case out, but blew up the government's case.

[00:17:48]uh pretty much ruling that the uh special counsel Jack Smith was illegally appointed. Uh she went way further than anybody ever expected. Hopefully uh she uh feels the same way about parking as I do, but she's impartial. She's a distinguished jurist, a stickler for the rules, which is a good thing. So, we'll keep you posted. Dale, thanks so much.

[00:18:15]We'll talk to you again soon.

[00:18:16]>> Good to see you, Carrie. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's [music] Financial Survival Network. Your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to [music] financials survivaletwork.com.

[00:18:28]Financial Survival Network. Now more than ever.