Weather forecasts use probability percentages (30-40% chance of rain) to communicate uncertainty, meaning 60-70% of people will not experience precipitation; storm timing is critical as early morning storms can deplete atmospheric moisture, reducing afternoon storm potential, and peak daytime heating typically triggers storm development.
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Scattered showers, isolated storm possible in North Texas over Memorial Day weekendAdded:
Let's get back over to Michael Oavino to get our weekend holiday weekend that is First Alert forecast. Good morning my friend.
>> Hey Carmen, good morning. Yes, for this holiday weekend I do have some uh shower and thunderstorm chances into the forecast. I want to get you out the door quickly this morning. Looking outside, we're off to a gloomy start. I'm tracking some isolated areas of fog that are developing, but into the metroplex, the visibility is looking pretty good.
Areas like Decar, Bridgeport, Graham are continuing to see some reduced visibility and some fog this morning.
All right, enough about this morning.
Let's talk about the weekend forecast.
We have some rain chances unfortunately to deal with. 40% chance for scattered showers and storms on Saturday, 30% chance on Sunday and as well as for Memorial Day. What I want to highlight, it's not a weekend wash out, but there will be opportunities to see some showers and storms into the forecast. I wouldn't cancel any outdoor plans, but I would be aware that you might get rained on at some point. And you want to be weather aware if you hear some thunder, have a plan in place and know where to go if you see these thunderstorms develop. Here's how it plays out for this weekend. For your Saturday, 40% chance of scattered storms. Isolated storms by Sunday. And then on Monday, we see isolated storms for Memorial Day as well. So, rain chances this weekend at 30 to 40% means 60 to 70% of us won't see any rain, which of course is good news for those who have any outdoor plans and want to spend some time by the pool or have some outdoor barbecues.
Before we get to this weekend, for tonight, there is a chance for an isolated strong to severe storm north and west of the metroplex. Level one to even a level two risk for areas like uh into Graham and Breen Ridge and even up to the north in Witchah Falls. We could see some gusty winds as well as some small hail from any of these storms that hold together as they develop out to the west. Let me show you how it plays out.
There's only a 20% chance of a shower or storm for today, which means it's a mainly dry finish to the work week.
Looking ahead to the second half of the day, we start to see some of these showers or storms forming out to the west, but it's after midnight on Saturday. So, the early morning hours of your Saturday, 2 3 4:00, we could see some storms developing. You may wake up to some rumbles of thunder and these storms could hold together. So, we may wake up to a soggy start on Saturday for some locations, but this is not going to indicate how the whole day is going to go. Once these storms push out, we will get some plenty of dry time. And the more storms we see earlier in the day, the atmosphere likely might not be able to recover. So, there would be lesser of a chance to see some storms later on in the afternoon. So, know that more storms in the morning would be a good thing. We could see some development out to our south and the east for the second half of your Saturday, but I do think that would be more or less on the doubtful side if we see those morning storms.
However, there is still a chance for some storms to form with peak daytime heating on Saturday. The same is true by Sunday afternoon. watch, we start to see some of those storms develop and then looking ahead into your Monday for Memorial Day, starting off dry, but we could see a few storms develop into the afternoon. So, it's not a bad weekend forecast, but there will be some opportunities for some showers and storms to develop. For your First Alert 7-day forecast, we're into the 80s as we move into this weekend. We see some storm chances linger and we see those storm chances also continue into next
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