Our central banks are in crisis—here’s why it matters | Birgit Niessner | TEDxLinz

本站添加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:13]I will start my TED Talks talk with a handbag.

[00:00:19]I've just brought it home from a wonderful vacation in Colombia.

[00:00:26]Can you hear them starting to whisper?

[00:00:28]They're a little bit nervous now because I I promised them a profoundly economics talk, but here I stand with my handbag.

[00:00:37]Can you actually see what it's made of?

[00:00:46]It's made of money.

[00:00:48]It's beautiful, but it hides a tragedy.

[00:00:51]In Colombia, we have roughly 3 million Venezuelan refugees, and one of them is selling things made out of money to tourists.

[00:01:03]You can see his vendor stand here with origami made out of money.

[00:01:10]This is probably the best use you can still make of a currency which suffered from hyperinflation because its central bank is under political control.

[00:01:22]In Germany, they also experienced hyperinflation.

[00:01:27]This inflation dress is witness of times when money lost its value, savings were wiped out, markets stop stopped functioning, and this episode of hyperinflation gave rise to political extremism because people lost faith in the system.

[00:01:55]Now, Germany 1923 and Venezuela 2026 are not as far as away as you might think.

[00:02:06]We live in a society where we risk losing sight of one of our major pillars of stability, which are central banks.

[00:02:16]I spotted dangerous knowledge gap on how central banks function, as you can currently see in Washington.

[00:02:24]When I was working as chief economist of the Austrian Central Bank, I often had the impression that people don't understand how this institution fights inflation and how we can help in this fight.

[00:02:37]This pillar of stability works the better the more you care about it.

[00:02:44]But let's start with the basics.

[00:02:48]Central banks issue money.

[00:02:53]The global community of central banks has the mandate to preserve price stability.

[00:02:58]Across many countries, there is common ground that central banks must be independent.

[00:03:05]When they are free from political pressure, they can conduct monetary policy in a professional and non-partisan way.

[00:03:14]This leads to low inflation and low inflation helps households and businesses alike.

[00:03:20]At the latest inflation shock after the pandemic, central banks used all their ammunition to fight inflation.

[00:03:28]In Austria, this fight is not yet over, but speaking for the Euro area, we are back to the inflation target of 2%.

[00:03:39]Okay.

[00:03:41]I still think that this community of central banks is often taken for granted or overlooked. What do you know about the the bank in your country.

[00:03:53]Central banks are at risk if people don't have the interest and the knowledge to fully appreciate its importance.

[00:04:00]They are also at risk if they are subject to politically meddling.

[00:04:05]Let me provide an example from Latin America.

[00:04:09]Let's look to Mexico. There they had the so-called tequila crisis.

[00:04:15]Nothing nice like the name might suggest.

[00:04:18]It was a severe currency devaluation mismanaged by a politicized central bank.

[00:04:25]The peso lost half of its value against the US dollar.

[00:04:29]This made imports very expensive.

[00:04:32]Inflation shot up and people struggled to cover their basic expenses.

[00:04:38]Widespread unemployment and an increase in poverty followed.

[00:04:43]This major crisis became the catalyst for granting the Mexican central bank fully legal independence in 1994. And this is what it did to the inflation rate in Mexico.

[00:04:57]Very high rates before 1994, very low and stable rates after 1994.

[00:05:05]When evidence on this link between independence of the central bank and low inflation was becoming clear, more and more countries joined the club of independent central banks.

[00:05:19]Here you can see that the country is, the more independent its central bank is.

[00:05:25]Roughly 2/3 of countries all over the world have a statute granting its central bank independence, which means autonomy in setting the monetary policy, restrictions on lending to government, and protection of governor tenure.

[00:05:48]In Europe, we have the European Central Bank.

[00:05:52]This is me inside the premises.

[00:05:55]And I would say it really conducts monetary policy to the benefit of the citizens.

[00:06:03]And in addition, it creates European identity because the Euro is the currency of currently 21 countries.

[00:06:13]Okay, so until now I have stated I've tried to argue the central banks are super important state institutions. But why do they matter for your life?

[00:06:27]Let's move this a little bit closer to your personal finances and look at the Fed.

[00:06:32]The Federal Reserve.

[00:06:34]The central bank of the United States, the most important central bank globally, a very prestigious institution.

[00:06:43]You may have heard that Mr. Trump is pushing for the current chairman, Mr. Powell, to resign.

[00:06:51]What looks like a power struggle far away actually constitutes one of our major financial risks in 2026.

[00:07:00]Let me walk you through this risk.

[00:07:03]If the independence of the Fed is dismantled, inflation may shoot up in the United States and the dollar will weaken. Everybody who is invested in US assets will feel this.

[00:07:17]Now, you may say this is still far away from my personal finances, but let me remind you of the great financial crisis in 2008.

[00:07:26]Exports from Europe go massively to the United States and capital flows are closely intertwined.

[00:07:35]Thus, I can assure you if there is uncertainty around the value of the dollar, which is until now the safe haven of the global financial system, we will definitely see global spillovers.

[00:07:49]At the latest attack against Mr. Powell, the global community of central banks gave a strong sign of solidarity. They are alert because we deal really don't know what happens if the dollar will become as volatile as a currency of an emerging market such as Turkey.

[00:08:07]Now there is another link between you, me, the ordinary citizens and the central banks.

[00:08:14]And that's expectations on inflation.

[00:08:20]As I've said before, central banks preserve price stability.

[00:08:26]Sounds technical, but it simply means when you plan your groceries, you plan your your rent, you plan your holiday, prices don't suddenly run away from you.

[00:08:36]And they preserve this price stability with a toolbox of monetary policy instrument. Now this toolbox is difficult to understand if you're not an economist.

[00:08:47]Thus we rather rely on the track record of a central bank or we listen to its communication.

[00:08:54]And based on this, we form a view on the credibility of the institution.

[00:09:00]And this is key in the actual fight against inflation.

[00:09:04]If you trust your central bank and prices start rising, you will tend to see this as a short-lived episode.

[00:09:13]You won't easily push for higher wages.

[00:09:16]If you run a business, you're less likely to raise prices.

[00:09:21]Thus higher wages don't push prices and inflation is kept at bay.

[00:09:27]This is the key mechanism and it works in four steps.

[00:09:32]The trust in the central bank leads to stable expectations.

[00:09:36]This leads to restraint in wages and prices and again to low inflation.

[00:09:45]Now think of what happens if you have lost trust in a person.

[00:09:50]You will hesitate to believe this person ever again.

[00:09:56]This is exactly what could happen with a politicized Fed.

[00:10:01]Once credibility is lost, it is extraordinarily hard to regain trust.

[00:10:08]And the US should know about it because the Fed lost control of inflation in the 1970s when the then chairman was under political pressure from President Nixon.

[00:10:19]Only when the new chairman, Mr. Volker, came in and I must say after a really severe cost of living crisis which reshaped economic chances of the population, then Mr. Volker came in with his giant interest rate hammer and only then the Fed realized that printing money like confetti isn't the best idea.

[00:10:44]And up to now I have tried to stay analytical, but I must be honest with you.

[00:10:49]It really makes me furious when politicians start dismantling the independence of central banks and interfere in monetary policy.

[00:11:00]They just don't grasp the consequences.

[00:11:03]They don't see the importance of the independence of central banks.

[00:11:08]And this is super ironic because all these politicians want to be reelected and not be punished for high inflation rates.

[00:11:18]Now let's go to the future of money.

[00:11:22]Until now I have asked you to trust central banks to respect monetary policy.

[00:11:29]Thank you for this trust.

[00:11:31]As a sign of appreciation, I will now offer you a new perspective on money.

[00:11:37]I will try to show you how central banks keep up with the times.

[00:11:43]You've come to Linz.

[00:11:45]How will you cover your expenses here?

[00:11:49]Please raise your hand. Who will pay with cash?

[00:11:58]Who will use his or her debit or credit card to cover expenses?

[00:12:07]Okay, and who pays via mobile phone?

[00:12:12]Okay. I'm not going to ask now for the people with gold bars and Bitcoins, but I will make one point.

[00:12:22]There is one big difference between cash and all other forms of payment.

[00:12:28]Cash is your only direct link to the central bank.

[00:12:33]The euro is issued by the European Central Bank and directly put into the hands of citizens.

[00:12:39]With all other forms of payment, you have an intermediary between you and the central bank.

[00:12:46]Now, from our little survey, we have seen that more and more people prefer to pay in a digital way.

[00:12:52]This is why the European Central Bank is preparing a digital euro. It's money, it's cash in the digital form.

[00:13:02]In 2029, it could be possible that you have the digital euro in your wallet.

[00:13:07]And it then it is your choice whether to pay via mostly American intermediaries such as Visa or MasterCard, or whether you will opt for a European digital solution.

[00:13:22]And that brings me to the broader future of money.

[00:13:26]We still live in a world where we are surrounded by mostly public forms of payment, public forms of money I want to say.

[00:13:36]But they're in competition with more and more private forms of money.

[00:13:42]The euro is public money.

[00:13:45]The dollar is public money.

[00:13:47]Stable coins, which are now hyped in the US, are a form of private money.

[00:13:53]They're backed by US Treasury bills, but they're issued by a private company.

[00:13:59]Crypto assets, which by the way don't really store value, are also a form of private money.

[00:14:09]My aim here is not to persuade you that public money is better than private money.

[00:14:15]But I want you to take a conscious choice.

[00:14:20]Private money can work if it is well regulated.

[00:14:24]However, I do miss a discourse on the risks and advantages of either form of money.

[00:14:30]And you can see here, you have a lot of choice.

[00:14:36]Everybody knows the ECB, but do you know Tether Holdings Limited?

[00:14:41]It's the company issuing the most widely spread stable coin, moving around 140 billion dollars daily, which is more than the GDP of many countries.

[00:14:54]Tether Holdings Limited is registered in the British Virgin Islands.

[00:14:59]For an informed decision, you will have to dig deep into the governance and into the solvency of this company, and only then you can decide whether you will trust their stable coin.

[00:15:12]And that brings me to my last question for today.

[00:15:17]I know that you know who is your head of government, but do you know who is the governor of your central bank?

[00:15:25]Do you know who is the president of the European Central Bank?

[00:15:31]Here she is, Madame Lagarde, when she visited us at the Austrian Central Bank.

[00:15:38]I know that many people don't know.

[00:15:40]They don't see the central bank.

[00:15:43]I think it's a very dangerous knowledge gap.

[00:15:47]Politicians have a lot of influence on our lives, but the power of central banks directly reaches into your pocket pocket or maybe in the future into your wallet.

[00:15:58]If central banks fail, the consequences for society are dramatic.

[00:16:03]Here it's a quote from one of the best economists we ever had, what happens if a society loses the value of its currency.

[00:16:13]So, I hope that after this talk you will see your central bank.

[00:16:18]And let me move one step further, let's look at the world transformed.

[00:16:23]A world where knowledge is not hidden in textbooks or in ivory towers.

[00:16:30]Go out and tell your friends what you've heard on money and inflation today.

[00:16:35]Subscribe to the social media channels of your central bank.

[00:16:40]Check out their podcasts.

[00:16:42]Get informed.

[00:16:44]And in this world, the fight against inflation is not a lonely battle of economists behind closed doors. It's a collective mission because you understand where the inflation rate stands in relation to the target of your central bank.

[00:17:01]Picture a society where politicians no longer meddle recklessly with central banks by putting their political appointees in this institution.

[00:17:11]And you respect your governor, you know his or her name not because of scandal but because here she is a trusted guardian of stability.

[00:17:22]Let's close this knowledge gap together.

[00:17:27]If you turn into an informed listener of your central bank, this will not avoid the next inflation search, but it will make the fight against it easier.

[00:17:40]My call for action is simple.

[00:17:44]Learn who guards your money.

[00:17:48]Trust in central banks is nothing abstract. It's something we build together or lose together.

[00:17:57]Thank you.

[00:18:02]WOO!