Bitcoin: Is there still a chance for another rally?

Añadido: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]So the Bitcoin price has formed a fivewave decline from the swing high that formed here around 83K on the 6th of May. And with that fivewave decline, we have now a higher likelihood that the next bounce that we see here on the chart should be a corrective move. In this update, we want to talk about what that might mean. We will also take a look at the levels which will be relevant for the coming week and we will take a look at Bitcoin dominance because we see at the moment some altcoins go up quite nicely and we will take a look at what that means. You know, is this already the beginning of a new altcoin season? Is it unexpected?

[00:00:47]So, we'll take a look at all of that. I would say let us take a look at the daily chart here first. And there are two pathways that I'm tracking here.

[00:00:59]Primarily, because of the fivewave decline, it has become more likely that the next bounce will be corrective. What does that mean? It means that the next bounce is likely going to be a corrective move, a three-wave move, and will likely form a lower high. [snorts] This is because after five waves down, Elliot wave tells us that we should expect a three-wave move and then we can get another fivewave decline. There is still a chance though that this is forming a larger three-wave decline. It is a bit more speculative though. um that would involve still the possibility of a larger rally potentially even to 95K but it would be not so typical for a for for let's say for a standard Bitcoin cycle because from a timing point of view from a cycle point of view 4year cycle or general time cycle perspective it is becoming more probable that a meaningful top is forming here in in May June and then we could see a sell off towards the 50k region, maybe lower.

[00:02:11][snorts] This is just based on cycles which I'm going to show you next. So, and why do I say it's it's not very typical for Bitcoin to extend this Bwave. So, from a time cycle point of view, you see this is a the cycle engine tool that we're using in addition to Elliot wave. This is a tool inhouse built which tells us what is the dominant cycle Bitcoin is following at the moment. at the moment is following roughly 250 days um 250 260 and so there seems to be a a high likelihood that we're going going to form a top in this region. I mean I can't rule out another push higher but the tendency is that around end of May early June a top forms. Um so it is also what seasonality tells us. Yeah. If if we go to the seasonality tool, we have that here as well. Um seasonality, then we can also identify the relevant seasonality on the Bitcoin chart. What I do normally when I go to this tool, I open this and I want to take a look at the midterm election years. I mean, in the end, that's where we are right now. Then there are different methods of of you know showing us seasonality. And what you see here these [clears throat] are I could possibly even go longer but it it shows us basically all the yeah basically midterm years and like midterm election years and it gives you an idea of where we are compared to previous years. Hold on. I just made a mistake. Probably don't want to include that. Yeah. Let's let's remove 2010.

[00:03:52]that really messes everything up. Um, but what you see here is that very often in this environment here, a top forms early in June. Do you see that? Early maybe first week in June and then we could come down. Yeah, this is pretty much what could happen from here.

[00:04:13]Uh, is it confirmed? Does it have to happen? No. But white is obviously the current price and teal shows you the average over the midterm years 2014, 2018, 2022. And it would be normal for the price to rally kind of into June and then form a top which is very much in line with the seasonality tool I showed you. So this kind of aligns. Yeah. And this this means Bitcoin might start the next decline very soon. But as I said this doesn't give us a very very you know this doesn't give us so much precision doesn't mean just because it happened before it has to happen again even seasonality you know it could be uh sorry our time cycles could be off by a week I'm I'm just here to show you the tendencies give you a little bit of context what I can tell you is that look on the Bitcoin chart on the price chart yeah and Ethereum is by the way the same Bitcoin has rallied correctively I wrote that in the newsletter today as rallied correctively into the May highs from February lows. It was expected and then now formed a fivewave decline. So, it's just a warning that a top might form soon. Yeah, maybe it's formed already. I would pay attention over the coming sessions to the resistance between 76,230 and 80,460.

[00:05:37]I would also pay attention to the lower boundary line of the channel. You could easily draw it like this a little bit.

[00:05:43]Yeah, it depends on if you're looking at it from a linear chart or logarithmic chart point of view as well. Um, so I'm just saying I think we could get a bounce because we have a fivewave decline, but the likelihood is high.

[00:05:57]It's just going to be a corrective bounce and so there is a clear resistance zone there. And the time cycles don't necessarily tell us that it's very likely Bitcoin breaks out once more. It could happen.

[00:06:11]It's still there on the chart, but Bitcoin would need to hurry up. In addition to that, we are below the 200 day moving average, so I would pay attention to that as well. This is currently located around 79,400 and it's running through our resistance zone. Okay, so before we go to Bitcoin dominance, that should give you the key support level and resistance for the coming sessions. We're also going to take a look at the micro structures, but you have resistance and you have the lower boundary line of the channel. And if you're interested in trying out our terminal with more than 50 different indicators and tools, and my promise it will be developed further, we now also have a correlation matrix in there, by the way, where you can compare different assets. Quite useful if you want to find out which altcoin is currently not correlating to Bitcoin, for example, >> [snorts] >> um because there are not many. and that can be helpful for trading decisions.

[00:07:07]Um, but if you want to check it out, focus um, not focus, follow the link in the comment section. Um, we have a 50% discount at the moment for our gold membership where that's included. 50% discount for the first month, but you can at least try it, see how it is.

[00:07:23]Gives you access for an extremely fair price. And um, yeah, check it out. Would love to have you there. Also, if you want to find out more about cryptos or other asset classes, every weekend I now send out a newsletter. Um, it's been revived now. It'll happen every week now. And I put the link to our newsletter form into the comment section as well. So, let us now take a look at Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin dominance is not uh for example, if you follow on X, you know already that my view is that this here is a sideways range. And in that sideways range, the market was expected to form kind of a local high here in May. Um, possibly in the wave C of the triangle. For the last week or so, last couple of weeks, I've been telling everybody here, you know, we might have a top in wave C if we're now really in that wave D pullback. Um, this would still be part of the triangle and I would pay attention to support at 58.3%.

[00:08:18]But so far this pullback I have to say it it really isn't enough to really confirm a major top or something. It can be seen as simply a pullback in a range like in a sideways range for example and is not enough to really confirm a full breakdown. For that, we would first need a break below 58.3% and then also a break below 57%. So until then, this could simply be a temporary dip in a larger sideways range. Overall, I think there could be a period coming where we see a larger decline of Bitcoin dominance. Yeah, I think most of us would be quite happy with that. Um, for now I think we we would need confirmation first at the very least with a break below 58.3%.

[00:09:12]So therefore I think you know from a from a Bitcoin dominance point of view what's currently happening in the altcoin space where we see some selective rallies certainly not broad strength but very selective rallies.

[00:09:25]It's not unexpected if we um look at our wave count from uh from a bitcoin dominance for bitcoin dominance. Um but again it means as long as this pullback is unfolding expect some more selective rallies I would say. Now of course you will find out here if that changes. Now, we should also take a look at the short-term chart for Bitcoin because this gives you really um some interesting patterns to watch for. Now, couple of days ago when I made the last video, I highlighted that resistance for the weekend is this one between 73,857 and 74,273.

[00:10:11]And honestly, this resistance is still holding. This is also where the April low of last year is located. That's the red line. We are still below it. We're still holding above micro support for the weekend as well, which was defined between 72,800 and $73,337.

[00:10:32]So, we're holding below resistance and above support. We're clearly ranging.

[00:10:36]Um, I also want to highlight this megap this kind of megaphone pattern we have here. So I would say at least be ready when we break out. If we break out higher, we need first of all a break above resistance. Pay attention to the blue trend line. And then um basically the next key resistance once we break above the initial micro resistance zone I just mentioned, the next resistance area is in the region around 76.2 76.3K.

[00:11:05]And so at the moment, we're still holding above this micro support zone here between 72.8 and 73.4K.

[00:11:12]As long as we're holding it, I'd say there's a good chance that this decline is over. I can't rule out another low.

[00:11:19]If there is going to be another low locally, then pay attention to the blue trend line around 72.2K and then 71.5K is going to be next support below.

[00:11:32]That's the lower boundary line of our channel. That's not very precise though because as I showed you there are different ways how you can draw that lower boundary line. But there's also um a Fibonacci level which is relevant. So that's the update on Bitcoin. Hope that was helpful. I wish you a great start to the week. And as I said, if you want to see more updates, feel free to check out our membership. There's a 50% discount for the first month. Check it out if you like it or not. Um and um yeah, hopefully uh that was helpful. Thanks so much. Have a great start to the week.

[00:12:06]Bye-bye.