One Of The Strongest El Niños On Record Is Coming..

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]We are now forecasted to have one of the strongest El Nino on record from October 2026 to January 2027. So, we're going to start to see the beginning impacts of El Nino to come and but they will only likely increase and enhance especially as we get deeper into the end of the year. So if we look at the setup, I mean going into December 2026 and the reason why they have this forecasted, I mean this is an extreme temperature increase of what we have seen as of late. So we're looking at some rapid elevated sea surface temperature anomalies and this is a very bullish forecast it put out uh by the climate prediction center. And yes, if this does in fact unfold, we could definitely be looking at one of the strongest El Nino on record. And one of the things that we're going to be starting to see is the change in the jetream. So, we're going to start to see the overall subtropical jetream, the one further south, beginning to be a lot more active. Of course, those waters are rapidly warming and storms love warmer waters. And you can see the polar jet.

[00:01:13]That's the one that's going to start to be a lot less active. So across the northern tier, you're definitely going to be seeing a a drying out period and a lot less influence from the polar jet and more amplified and more influenced in the subtropical jet. And we're definitely going to be starting to see that going forward. And that's going to kickstart into Mother's Day where we do have in fact an enhanced risk for severe storms. So, we'll have a strong disturbance coming in from the west, but the combination of a cool front that's going to kick off all three modes of severe storms right in the heart of the Dallas War Metroplex. saying they upgraded to an enhanced risk and also a hatched risk, meaning anything that does fall could produce some large, if not some very large hail extending from the Dallas Fort Worth region back into areas of southwest, areas of the metroplex into West Texas. That's kind of the favorite area where they could be looking at more significant golf ball, maybe even tennis ball type size hail.

[00:02:17]And then also damaging winds as well upwards to 60 even some 70 miles an hour as this looks to form in a congeal and a squall line especially as it pushes further south into central Texas deeper into the evening. So, you're looking at about a 3 to 9:00 window, especially say in North Texas and then shifting into the overnight hours towards that midnight time frame into central Texas.

[00:02:42]And I think that's we'll be looking at more of a damaging wind threat some of those 60 to 70 mph. And this could be elongated threat extending for a good part of the state as it just pushes is pushes through. So, the tornado threat isn't zero, but it it is low. So, I mean, we're that you never can roll out a tornado in this setup, but this is mainly going to be a larger hail event and especially a damaging wind event and a more widespread event. And so, we're going to be seeing over the next two days kind of a supercell that's going to be coming out of of Wyoming there in Fishtail Southeast. And that will likely extend through Kansas and portions of Oklahoma with some larger hail and damaging winds. And then that's going to meet up with a strong disturbance on Mother's Day. And then combined with that cool front that's going to be coming in on the backside. I think the initial storms will start off with some larger hail producers. But then it'll transfer into kind of a congeal into a solid squall line further south. I would say Dallas, south of Dallas into the evening time frame for your Mother's Day evening. We're talking later on the evening towards that midnight time frame into central Texas, areas like Austin and San Antonio by then past Waco, further south into southeast Texas. But look at all the rain that's going to be coming over the next two days with that squall line going to be coming in.

[00:04:08]That's going to be pulling most of the energy right in the heart of Texas, especially into eastern portions of Texas. And that's where you could be seeing some isolated flash flooding, especially as this kind of slows down, the cold front slows down into the evening time frame and links up with this stalled front right along the the portions of uh southern portions of Louisiana, getting into Mississippi as well as into Alabama. They've seen a lot of rain as of late, and they're just going to be adding to those totals over the next two days. But noticed out west it's pretty dry and is likely continue to remain dry. But those areas that are dry and we're going to be seeing a ridge likely build and expand over the next couple days as we start your work week.

[00:04:56]So we're going to be starting to get a little bit reprieve from those severe storms and some of those heavier rain setups as the dominant feature will be the ridge of high pressure that's going to be locked over the western tier of the US. Some of these areas, especially coming up for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, even Friday of of next week through the middle of May, we're going to be looking at some even some record high temperatures unfolding for a good part of California, Nevada, back into Washington, as well as into Idaho, getting into Utah, going into the desert southwest. I think 109 yesterday in Death Valley. They'll easily top that, topping out maybe 117 next week and then the four corners region and then even West Texas areas of the Texas panhandle where they were talking about snow just the other day. Now we're talking 100 degree temperatures, right?

[00:05:52]And that ridge will likely expand further north as the 90s surge well north into Idaho. We're even 97 upper upper 90s in Idaho, Wyoming. So, there's going to be a lot of heat really likely to build for your work week ahead, but the northwest flow will be alive and well and continue to remain locked over the northeastern sections of the US.

[00:06:16]You're going to be remaining on the cooler, chillier side and rainier side as well uh for your work week ahead. But there's the drying period that's likely going to be taking shape where the dominant feature of the ridge and the sinking air is. you'll really have to go to the northern tier where any precipitation will likely unfold over your work week ahead. But I think all that likely obviously changes as we get beyond that towards past the middle of the month into that third week of May.

[00:06:46]We'll definitely start to see more tropping come back across the western tiers. And with all that added fuel heat in the upper levels of the atmosphere, now we have that system to tap into. And that will only add to increased precipitation amounts as we'll add to some higher due points. We're talking oppressive type due points well to the 70s now. And then that obviously that will add to increased water vapor which would lead to flash flooding. And you can see some of the precipitable water index to you know water content values approaching over 2 in per hour. that could easily lead to flash flooding uh as we head into that third week of May.

[00:07:31]And then look at the the surge of water vapor as this as we get more troughs that going to be coming in out west and that's going to tap into the abundance amount of fuel coming out of the Gulf and that will be be leading to those higher due points and that moisture surge will be shifting back into the central plains taking advantage of all that recent heat and that will likely shift into the upper Midwest and that will be elongated with the heavier rains as as a precipit precipitable water vapor uh you know index we're looking at you know May is already the wetest month and so once we get towards that third week of May I think that's when we'll really start to start feeling the the the kind of the beginning impacts of that uh influenced El Nino out there and the subtropical jet will be taking really really start to take shape and now we're looking at two 300% above average precipitation water values And I think that's when we'll likely lead to some flooding concerns. Flash flood watches would likely be in a good part of Texas and Oklahoma by then through Arkansas. And that likely shifts up into a good part of the the upper Midwest.

[00:08:46]And most of the ensemble guidances out there, most of the global guidances out there are kind of already hitting hinting at that third week of May. We could be looking at some very heavy rain would likely lead to flash flooding across a good part of Texas there and Oklahoma and much of Kansas there and uh you know good part of Arkansas, Missouri that extends into Kentucky through areas of the Carolas into Virginia and then yes that moisture surge will likely shift well north as well into I Iowa back into Minnesota getting into Wisconsin there. And if you look at the overall rain just for the next two weeks and obviously we'll have that low for about five days there, we're looking at some heavier rain. So yeah, so most of this will fall the next two days and a lot of it will fall that third week of May. But definitely looking at, you know, good four, five, eight inches amounts is not out of the question with this steady stream of moisture that will likely be lifting north and shifting northeast in the the weeks to come. And then what's interesting once uh once we get beyond that I think you know with the Pacific uh you know on the Pacific side hurricane season starts early it's going to be starting on the 15th. So with all those above average, you know, you know, sea surface an anomalies and temperatures out there, I think that will be adding to that fuel and that will kind of activate the monsoon a little bit early this year. And the climate prediction center is already kind of hinting at that as above average precipitation for a good part of Texas, but now it's going to be extending into a good part of m New Mexico into Arizona here across the four corners regions.

[00:10:34]And if you look at the Pacific and over the 30 days there that you can definitely see these these rapid warming temperatures out there in the Pacific.

[00:10:43]And I think this as it gets going uh as the hurricane season kind of gets going as these centrals come these storms that come off the Central America here will be tapping into this uh above average temperatures out there into the Pacific.

[00:10:58]That's going to lead to above average rains and we'll likely start to see that shift with the early monsoon flow moving in to the desert southwest. So now areas of West Texas, much of New Mexico and Arizona will likely start getting into the action as we head towards the last part of May, getting into the first part of June. We'll likely see more influence on that subtropical jet and more influence on an early season monsunal flow start to kick in. So guys, I appreciate you watching. Do like this video. Definitely hit the subscribe button and catch my next update where I protect you before and after the storm.