Visa’s pivot from speculative curiosity to core infrastructure integration signals the end of crypto’s "casino phase" and the start of its life as global financial plumbing. While it validates the technology, it also marks the inevitable corporatization of decentralized networks.
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Visa Chose This Altcoin!Hinzugefügt:
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Which one? Which one?
What's the second best?
>> This is Discover Crypto. We're going to talk about Visa choosing an altcoin today, but I'm actually going to run.
I'm fleeing to the Bitcoin charts because we just had a major major correction, folks. We're looking at one minute candles and Bitcoin fell off a cliff this morning. Drew, I know you had a a pretty juicy trade yesterday.
>> Yes. You you weren't longing up here or anything, were you?
>> No. No. I actually had a long from uh essenti a little bit actually basically at the level that we found support at a few minutes ago yesterday. So I got it in at about 736 and uh closed at about 752.
Let the 10 a.m. manipulation happen.
Gather my data for the day. I see the downside that just played out at the 10 a.m. morning. And this is why I leave 10 a.m. alone, man.
>> Yeah. No, that's good advice. Good advice right there. Unless you're using the Discord quant, but then it might be a little bit earlier in the morning, not trading at uh 10:00 a.m. But chat, yesterday, Disco fam, you guys, you're here. We were calling this yesterday. We pulled up the liquidity cluster. If you guys recall, now I haven't hit refresh on this, but yesterday we talked about 73500, highlighted it, gave you the reasons, gave you the rationale. I said, you know, we're I I think somewhere maybe around here. I could I could look 10 a.m., but we were, you know, past this level. I said we must wick below this range. Why? The liquidation heat map is calling for it. Now, let's go ahead and hit refresh.
Sliced it like butter, everybody. We sliced it like butter. You can see it right there. Came down exactly to uh the little range that we were talking about.
Again, this is nothing novel. We were just looking at this. And now, Drew, you saw this before we even hit refresh.
Now, the bears are going to be next to get slaughtered. You can see a high high high volume node up here. Just a lot of liquidity waiting to get liquidated and this level is going to be right around 75800.
But going back to the Bitcoin charts, that is a massive massive wick to the downside there. Yeah. And this is, you know, when you're trading within a day, um, you know, just assuming violence on both sides of the equation is a good thing to do. Uh, it's just about how who's closer to the knife for the time being. That that uh kind of >> I like Magnet. magnets's a lot better cuz sometimes you got a big magnet on one side and a small magnet over here, but you're really close to the small magnet. So the piece of metal, you know, it'll go to the small magnet, but eventually, you know, usually the large magnet will work out. Why are you going with knives?
>> Well, I don't know. I mean, I just think it's a very it's I look at trading as a battle and >> it is a knife fight. Trading is a knife fight. It's PvP.
>> It is very battleesque. It feels like you're a Viking. Um, and you got to go in there ready to die, right? You got to go in there ready to die. But >> people are trying to front Drew. They're trying to frontr run the title here.
Visa choosing Salana. There might be a little bit of a asterric to this. They just made a huge signal for one of Drew's favorite altcoins just in the past 24 hours. So, we're going to cover that news. And of course, we are going to talk about the Visa Salana angle.
There's a video making the rounds of a Visa executive talking about Salana.
It's very bullish as well. But, let's just check in on the market. Bitcoin is down.7. ETH down 1.7.
Salana is up, Drew. So maybe people are paying attention to what Visa is doing.
This is giving me signs of a market comeback. This is giving me signs of wait. Good news actually gives a coin a green candle, especially on a red day.
>> You don't get this in bare markets.
Normally in a bare market, good news is going to be down even further because people are going to try to long that level. Dogecoin with a 1.4% pump here.
Hyperlid slightly down. Cardano. Cardano reclaiming some of the levels we were talking about. So, that looks pretty good if you're holding that one. Rave Dow continuing to I I don't know. This one's on ecstasy or something. I I don't know when it's going to have a a sweaty panic attack, but it ain't today. Hold on. Whoa. Whoa. That That scroll just went hard as a You know what? Looking at the 7-day still lower than right here.
It was flirting with $20. Right now, trading trading into 1681. Just be careful trying to short this one. It could it could wreck you. It is literally Drew. It is designed to wreck people. Some would say >> if it keeps running, we're going to hear about how China is paying for their oil at the straight of Hermoose in Rave Dow token and it's going to be the next big thing. So, >> I think I saw that Wall Street Journal article, you know, may maybe we'll pull it up. Uh looking at the losers here, DXE, uh Zcash, Canton, Canton's down.
That's very interesting. Tao is down, Render down, Morpho down. Some of these tokens had some pretty good days a few days ago. So maybe a little bit of a healthy pullback there. Let's go ahead and dive into the title story here. What the heck's going on with Visa? Well, Visa and Zodiac Custody are joining Stripe's new blockchain for machine payments. Who is Stripe? If in case you're wondering, Stripe, think of a credit card company behind the credit card company. So when you go to the gas station, they're not dealing with de Visa or Mastercard directly. They're dealing with companies like Stripe.
Stripe is a payment processing company.
They handle credit cards, digital wallets, and they do 1.9 trillion in payments. They're half of the Fortune 100 use this. So half of the hundred largest American companies use Stripe here. So Stripe is a very, very large company. So we're not talking about Visa and some rinky dink company. We're talking about Visa partnering with the other large financial behemoth. And Stripe has a new blockchain. It's blockchain machine payments aka this is the preferred payment for AI. That is going to be their strategy here. And we're going to play a video from this guy right here. This is the Visa the head of Visa's crypto team highlevel executive here the guy that's in charge of whether Visa is going to use crypto. So the Stripe backed Tempo blockchain added a pair of heavyweight validators. Visa zodiac custody here alongside stripe. Visa, they're going to participate by maintaining network security and verifying transactions, aka essentially running a node is probably the easiest way to think about this.
Long-term collaborator of payment service provider configured and managed the validator node inhouse following six months of joint work with their engineering team at Tempo to integrate Visa's infrastructure directly into the blockchain. So, this isn't Visa, you know, letting in four dorks that look like they work for Doge carrying in their laptops. Visa sent their own dorks to go work with this blockchain. So, this is a highlevel integration here.
This isn't just some This to me, Drew, is nothing like what we saw with Starbucks in blockchain or even uh Nike in blockchain. This is a homegrown true integration to blockchain.
>> Yeah. And it does it does sound and feel more tangible of a connection. And it's a lot more than what we saw last bare market, you know. And in bare markets, you have this flood of stories from Visa, Disney integration. We remember them from Polygon and all that. When the chips are down, the information flows hard. But this actually does seem pretty tangible. Uh the real question in my mind is who's the big winner out of this, right? Who's >> We'll go into the charts. Maybe the charts will give us a little indication of that. Now, Visa does plan to run nodes on other blockchains. They said previously they're going to join Canton network where they plan to serve as a super validator. So maybe some people are, you know, they they're bullish on this Canton news, seeing Canton isn't the only bell of the ball. Visa is looking at a couple Danes and some nice dresses. I don't know why I went to like 1940s lingo there, but you know, Visa, they're they're shopping around and so maybe people saw, oh, I thought Canton was going to be the the only one being used. Maybe that's why we're seeing some bearish pressure. But for the past seven years or so, Visa's blockchain engineers been living and breathing stable coins.
According to Koi Sheffield, now we're going to play a video from Koi in a second, and he isn't being koi about their strategy. Sorry. Tempo, also backed by Paradigm. They went live last month with MM or MPP, machine payments protocol. This lets software and AI agents pay for services autonomously.
Now, Strike moving into the stable coin industry. They bought a company for 1.1 billion. Mastercard made a similar move.
They bought a stable coin company for 1.8 billion. As Visa had plans for their own stable coin. This is what Ky Sheffield said. It's so early and the rules haven't even been fully written yet. We spend a bunch of time with the OC and others. I think there are many different roles that Visa can play, but everything we do, we want to make sure we're doing it in partnership with our clients in our network. To me, they care less about the network. They care less about the clients. I think they care more about the government, Drew. They don't want to do something just to see the next administration roll everything back.
>> Absolutely. Like we have to keep that in mind. We're in, you know, what appears to be a pro- crypto administration, if that is their real name. But if the Democrats end up winning the next election, a lot of the executive orders can be challenged by the next president.
Right. So, um, it's nice to see this glass house be built, but we have to reinforce it with concrete, steel, and autonomous agents running gun turrets on the edges of it to make sure that it's protected. Right. This is a season where we're winning in terms of adoption, but this can be rolled back very quickly if the election uh swings hard the other way in the next few years here. So, >> all right. Now, let's play this video from Koi. This is only about 40 seconds, 39 seconds or so. So, Visa is really becoming the network of choice for stable coin link cards. And the reason for that is that over the last two years, we've been directly using stable coins to improve the way that money moves across our network. And so, we have live pilots with clients in Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia that are using stable coins to settle their transaction.
>> Don't give me the country, give me the ticker. What altcoin >> with Visa? And so what's really exciting today is, you know, we've gotten to the point where we have US clients, you know, two banks in the US, lead bank and cross river, you know, who are now onboarded and are starting to settle their transactions in USDC over the Salana blockchain. So we're really excited to continue to grow the momentum we have uh with stablecoin settlement across our network.
>> All right. Now, that is a slightly older clip, but you know, we we're bringing it up because we're talking about Koi, we're talking about Visa, we're talking about their digital strategy here. So, I think we could maybe just go ahead and show some charts, Drew, I got a couple charts I I kind of want to share. First, I want to start with Salana. What is going on with Salana? You know, what does this all mean? What does this mean for Salana? Well, I think the charts is going to kind of tell us something here.
Now, first, still in the parallel range, just like a lot of coins, we had that very strong wick, February 6, if I'm not mistaken here. Yeah, February 6. It's kind of bouncing along, bouncing along, and we did hit the bottom. Now, good news. We bounced off the trend line.
this trend line right here. I'm going to zoom in to the 4 hour. See it just a lot more cleanly here. You see we hit against it, hit against it, hit against it. Drew, we were then able to flip this into support with our last touch. And so in the near term, Salana is looking bullish, bouncing off of this trend line. It is going to come to a head. Is it going to bounce off of this trend line or is it going to lose this one?
And this is the new bottom. Now number three, that's one and two. Number three, shortterm resistance. This is the green rectangle. We got to go in even more.
Maybe go to the 1 hour here. 1 hour. You can see this is a level uh acted as support. Acted as support. Acted as support. Has then flipped into resistance 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and a half times here. And you can see just recently on the 1 hour chart, clean rejection, almost hit the top of the range and now falling back down. So, you know, medium-term, near-term, pretty bullish. micro term, scalp term, like a scalp trade. Looking a little bit bearish as we reject off this range. The number four though, weekly RSI. Now, we're going a little bit more macro here. Let me pull up the RSI. RSI very oversold on that level when we wicked down on February 6. I can go ahead and delete it. We already got the data from it. If you look in Salana's history, only hit that level one other time. It was the pico bottom. Drew, I would say on the weekly RSI, it's not a lot of data, but on the weekly RSI, this looks very bullish and definitely a little bit of a hidden divergence here as well. Uh, you can see the RSI shooting higher, which is what we saw on the reversal right here. We had a little bit of a I mean, it's really, really close. Maybe it's a little bit lower right there, but we kind of double touched here. We kind of double touched. Salana to me is looking pretty bullish. Drew, >> well, we hit All right. So what I was doing when we lost the 50 line on that RSI, I remember Solana was about 130 bucks. Um, and you know, I really felt like $70 was my moment to back up the truck, but 70 or about close to 70 came way too quick. And so now I'm seeing this bullish divergence play out. It seems pretty beat down. And it's like Salana didn't move nearly as good as Bitcoin did yesterday, right? And I'm noticing the wicks are smaller for Salana to the upside and then the downside wicks are much stronger. Um, you know, I am interested to see if Bitcoin goes to 80, can it actually get that bullish momentum? Because the Bitcoin dominance chart looks like it's taken back over. And that's maybe not me being bearish because like I want Salana at 50 bucks. I like Salana for the long term. Yeah, the Salana sub50 a $50 the the $70 target hit way too fast for the overall breakdown of it as an altcoin hindering a bare market. And so I just have this weird feeling that, you know, even though Bitcoin is painting a bottom, Salana might not be ready to have shown that bottom where it had wicked down to. I think it was like $75 or something like that. um where the bottom end of that, you know, wick ended up going. Can we check that out real quick? Just to Yeah. Where did that It actually went just below $70. It looks like $68.
Um so that's something that I'm watching for. Is that wick going to end up being, you know, the line in the sand for Salana? Because it's a much smaller market cap than Bitcoin. It's a much smaller market cap than Ethereum, but >> All right. Well, I think this is a good question for the chat. How low does Salana go for this cycle? Was the low 68 67? Are we going to 50? I've seen some of you guys type in $30 before. I want to say I've seen a couple people say even going down to $20. I don't know if it's going to I don't think it's going down to 20. I don't even think it's going down to 40, but it is an altcoin.
So, you know, I mean, there's going to be less liquidity compared to a Bitcoin.
So, you got to really be careful with your predictions when you're talking about draw downs. But just wondering here, you know, how low did we go? Cuz we're going to have some peaks here.
This is going to be the Trump pump essentially. Trump memecoin launch.
We are down 70% fell 76%. And shout out to Trump for that moment too. Like we if he didn't launch Melania Trump the memecoin would have hit $100 and he launched the memecoin literally when the Trump coin was at 77 bucks and completely screwed it all up. Like why the hell did he let his wife do that?
That's always been a a thing that I think about.
>> Happy wife, happy life, Drew.
>> I guess you know she's she's a fashionista. She needed some extraction for some new dresses. I guess I watched the Melania show. Unimpressed. Um, we got >> all right. So, we got a lot 70s, 50s. If Bitcoin bottoms in the 50s, Salana will hit the 50s, it'll go below $60 right there.
>> Okay.
>> And we're splitting hairs at this point, too, because it's at what, 80 bucks. If we see it at 50 bucks, you know, sure, that's, you know, 30 40% draw down or whatnot from where it's at right now.
Um, but I do feel like Salana is a long-term crypto project and if crypto can continue to expand, you know, I think that, you know, tapping maybe doing a slight higher high in the next bull market is a very reasonable thing to look at. And a side note, Dezy, I think it's about high tide me and you start comparing the diminished gains and diminished losses of Bitcoin and start to put together a very reasonable, honest approach to what we think the all-time high for Bitcoin.
>> We are literally going to do that later on, Drew. So, I'm glad you said that.
We're going to look at this draw down compared to the previous draw downs.
There was another angle here. It was the Canton angle. I didn't want to look at the Canton chart here. We do have a pretty significant pullback today compared to the rest of the broader market. Still in a little bit of a symmetrical triangle here. You see, you know, we only touched the bottom here, but then we came down and it kind of kept this line. Kind of kept the trend line there. Let's zoom in. It looks like we Ooh.
Oo, that is clean looking.
>> Okay, >> I don't hate a Canton long. Scalp long from this level. Make sure you don't break down below.
>> I hold Canton as a very high risk, highreward scenario. It's a low market cap relatively to Bitcoin and ETH. And to see someone allowed to do treasury repos on the blockchain shows me that there's probably some backdoor deals happening. They don't care about retail.
They don't have really any sort of ambassador program or anything like that going on on X, which I honestly I do like as a holder because I want the proof to be in the pudding rather than in what people are saying. and it's holding up very well in the bare market.
So, I really um you know, I'm going to hold my canon. It's actually one of the only altcoins I left alone completely when I jeted everything uh to get out of the way of the the nasty fall from 96.
But I do understand and I want to make this clear that it is still high risk in this environment. I am heavily exposed to pain by holding this coin, but I'm I'm too interested and curious to see what's on the other side to let go right now. Well, we'll break on through to the other side. Yeah, we do got some predictions out there. People throwing out some prices there. 69420. Haha. I did see some people bring up Trump in the chat here. There is some Trump crypto news, some pretty major news. Uh, you might even be able to say Liberty Fire under fire. We're Liberty Fi. or a Liberty Fire more likely. They're under an absurd token unlock plan criticism uh wave right now. I'm just going to go into their official announcements here.
This is the official announcement. So, in case you're unaware, most of it went to the team, the advisers, the Trump family. Then there was a pre-sale started at a penny and a half. Remember that, Drew? It was really, really cheap.
Then it started going up and the late buyers got in, was it even 10, 15 cents?
I think the late buyers came in at. The early people they got for a penny and change. They paid money for these tokens, but they can't move the tokens.
They can't touch the tokens. Justin's son got in trouble for supposedly trying to sell the tokens, change ownership of the tokens. They got real mad at him.
So, there's all these tokens that are locked. They've released the details.
Some of the holders are not happy about this. So, this is a proposal. This isn't set in stone. The holders are going to vote for it. The team, you know, is going to have a strong strong vote here.
So, we believe this uh new proposal represents the strongest long-term alignment with the signals in DeFi. So, here's what the thing says. Every adviser, institution, partner, founder, team member is locked and assigned to a two-year cliff with a three-year linear vest upon opting in. So, if you vote for this, got to wait two years and you get it over the next three years, subject to a 10% burn upon doing so. And so, they're trying to market this as, hey, we're burning some team tokens.
The criticism here is some people are saying, "Well, I paid for my tokens. You got those tokens for free. Don't cry me a river about burning 10% of your free tokens. I don't want to hear it." Okay?
Because I paid money for mine. You got yours for free. So, for the people who participated in the pre-sale, the early supporters, all 17 billion lock tokens are now on a also a two-year cliff followed by a 2-year linear vest. So, that means they got to wait two years and then they'll get about 4% every month. Exactly 4% every month there full allocation retained. Not exactly but zero burn. So you don't get burned, they get burned 10%. Holders who do not accept this are now locked indefinitely under existing terms. Some people did I guess they I don't want to say jump to a conclusion. There's there's something that everybody's talking about that's kind of in this two-year window. Of omfg they're only going to let us sell when Trump is out of office. Some people are upset about this. True.
>> Now, what could go wrong? I mean, what could go wrong? This sounds like a perfect setup. You know, let the dust settle. Let the Democrats take over because the pendulum is going to swing violently back to the Democrats after everyone gets pissed at Trump. We're only one year into Trump, by the way. We still have three years of Trump and the rest of his administration uh moves to come. And being someone from the outside looking in on this as someone that voted for Trump, what I think three times. I voted for Trump three times. This is very aggravating to me.
This is uh this is a flash point for me, dare I say, because we're seeing the little man squashed out. We're seeing giant government interest come into crypto. And none of the things that we in crypto that were here for cycle over cycle, we not we did not see any of the movements that we expected to see out of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, out of, you know, a tweet from the president talking about adding three of the biggest altcoins to a reserve as well. And what I've been left with is the hardsided understanding that the government is only interested in confiscating Bitcoin.
I see them release world liberty that's headed to extreme lows. I've seen and bought the Trump memecoin and thank god I got out of the way. I made a three or 4x on the Trump memecoin, but you know he he rolled out the memecoin right before his administration took hold of power and then he let his wife roll out a memecoin and they're both down by 99 99.9%.
This is something that you have to be honest with yourself about. And I know that some people like Trump more than their own children. I get it. You would sell out your son for your support of Trump. I did vote for Trump and I reserve the right to criticize Trump. If we don't have the right to criticize the leadership within the country, you don't have a free society. And you're also not thinking for yourself if you're not ex acknowledging the truth about what's going on.
you're basically living in a contrived reality that will only lead you to slaughter. So, I think reserving the right to uh bash what he's done as an American with free speech is something that we need to take very close consideration of. It was only 6 years ago that he rolled out operation warp speed. We were inches from tyranny actual. Many people bent the knee then 80% of this country took the jab. So, I remember who and what they they voted for, what they clapped for, and I'm making the video.
I'm making the video tonight, D. And it's >> All right, folks. Everybody smash the like button. It really does help us out.
We really do appreciate your support.
You know, you're the guys that make this possible. You make the Disco fam a a movement, a wave, uh a system, a system to just expose the truth. That's what we're here for. We're we're here to just kind of call balls, balls, call strikes, strikes, and let's go ahead and get back to Bitcoin, everybody.
>> All right. All right. I I I I am Hey, look forward to Drew's video. I have a feeling it's going to be one of those heaters. But Bitcoin funding rates have hit the most negative level since 2023.
Historically, deep negative funding rates coincide with local bottoms. COVID mid21 crash, FTX collapse. Here, got an article here kind of breaking it down.
And so this, like we said, coincides with market bottoms. Funding rates are periodic payments. So, if you don't know what a funding rate is, it's the payments between the long and the short traders. And it is designed to keep the price aligned. So, when the rate is positive, long traders are paying the short traders. There's a lot more bullish activity here. Everyone's going long. When the rate is negative, shorts are paying longs. That means there's just way too many shorts out there.
Historically, deeply negative funding rates coincide with local bottoms for Bitcoin. This dynamic typically reflects crowded short positioning which can create the conditions for a short squeeze. We saw it like we said March 2020 co crash Bitcoin fell to 3K. 2021 China's mining ban, Bitcoin fell to 30K.
FTX collapsed, November 22, Bitcoin fell to 15K. More recently, we saw it August 24 with the yen carry trade and April 25 with the the tariff selloff here. Also saw negative funding here. And we have a zoomed in photo. This is very negative.
Very, very negative. So, Bitcoin has a a definite positive catalyst, but it can go more negative. It doesn't necessarily have to stop here. But when you're looking at the other tea leaves here, got Morgan Stanley. Remember, they just launched their Bitcoin ETF. They called it a scam. Told their people to stay away. Would not allow their wealth advisers to even have any kind of mention of Bitcoin with their clients there. Well, now it's overtaking multi-year funds after only six days.
So, they passed Wisdom Tree Wisdom Trees Bitcoin ETF in net inflows even though they launched this a week ago. Wisdom Tree has been operating since January of 2024. So, all of 24, all of 25 and pushing towards half of 2026 here. So, for a long, long time this has been operating. They're already past them in six trading days here. Also Tuesday, two days ago, Goldman Sachs also filed with the SEC to launch their own Bitcoin ETF.
And so there's definitely an ETF, a Bitcoin ETF for anybody who wants it.
But there's going to be clients that have all their wealth parked in one vehicle. They're not going to want to withdraw from Morgan Stanley to put some money with Black Rockck and then buy the Black Rockck ETF. They're going to be sidelined until it's on the table. And now we're starting to see Morgan Stanley. We're starting to see Goldman Sachs. Of course, we've already seen Black Rockck. This is very bullish. So, you can say, "Oh, well, the ETFs are already out. If they want it, they buy it." This literally is telling you something different.
>> The money is telling you something different.
>> Yeah. And again, I think that this is pretty highbrow move from their analysts. Um, these are companies that have some of the best market analysts on the planet. And >> yeah, their quants are like science Olympiad gold medal winners, >> right? So seeing them put the rubber to the road in this current environment when there's so many people that are just sure that we're going to 20 or $30,000 uh in the chat or on X. The biggest and best analyst on the planet just rolled out an ETF while the chips are down.
This is a bullish sign to me. Yeah, we kind of had the theory, you know, like maybe Black Rockck wanted Bitcoin's price to be low when they finally offer their ETF because then their customers aren't mad at them 12 months later. They want happy customers.
>> And you're going to see the same thing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. I I think it's just almost obvious you you would see the same thing here. But let's talk about this bare market. This is interesting data.
>> Would you believe that this is the best Bitcoin market, Bitcoin bare market from a draw down perspective?
>> Absolutely, because I feel like it's the worst. I like lower prices and this is too little of time of pain and now we're pumping while everyone expects it to continue to go down. I thankfully have been trading very effective and I've increased the Bitcoin holdings very extensively since we lost $96,000.
Um, you know, and I played that protection zone very nicely getting out of altcoins hell uh on the way down before it happened. But I do got to say it's time to start looking at we're seeing a diminished draw down play out.
And a prediction that I had years ago was that we were going to only have about a 50% draw down from the new high which was 126. And now we >> which is a major jump too because we've seen the draw downs be within a few percentage points of the previous draw down. So to only draw down 50% would be a mega mega jump there. Let's go ahead and just kind of is this even accurate now? First is the top. So after 194 days, we're down 41%. So we'll just round and say after 200 days, we're down 40%. 200 days, we're down 40%. 2021, after 200 days, technically 194, 56%, 57%. So way better than 2122 bare market. And we have the 2017 stop uh top right here. Let's check 200 days technically 194 69% drop. 70% drop. So after 200 days you're down 70%. Let's do one more cycle here.
194 days.
Even the one that looks like it'd be good, you're still down 45%. The reason it looks so funky, log chart. We're using a log chart there just to make it a little bit cleaner. But yeah, this has been the best bare market >> from low. Well, now we should look at the high to low because I really want us to start thinking about this. So 2017 down to the low that it found um December of 201. We can start early.
Yeah, we can start early here. Yeah, let's look at all the data because that one was 85ish percent if I'm not mistaken if I remember right.
>> So we got a 87% I've seen 88 if you do some wicks before but so this one's the 2013 2014 high we fell 86%.
>> And then we ran up right and we uh pumped up to about what is it 688 in November 2021.
>> Uh after that >> not even there yet. I did 2014. This is 2017. Okay. 2017 we fell 84%. So we went from 87 >> to 84.
>> Right.
>> You go to 2021 here. 87 84 to 77.
>> Right. Right.
>> So still within you know a few percentage points here. 87 84 77. So to jump from 8477 to 50, that's a huge I don't want to say it's a huge ask, but that makes it by far the best bare market we've seen. Unless you're trying to buy the dip, then it's the worst bare market we've seen by far.
>> Well, and that's my point. I'm a bottom blaster, so I get annoyed the less time Bitcoin stays low. And you know, >> yeah, you're saying you put the rubber to the chad earlier, right?
>> Yeah, absolutely. And this is something that >> Sorry. Well, when we are hosting shows in a bull market, there's a lot of people asking me to cover giant green monthly candle, right, and give justification for more green candles.
And in a bull market, you know, oftent times that does end up happening. But the problem that I see is nobody takes profits. You know, a vast majority of the people I I know are just taking screenshots. So, I want us to start analyzing this in a very serious manner.
We went from 88% to 87% 77%. Now we're seeing a 52% draw down and the market cap has exponentially increased with an exponential increase to market cap. Then you have a much more difficult market to move up or down. Right? This is no longer a 10 billion hundred billion dollar market. So, I'm looking at this and I'm just thinking to myself, if we have diminished draw downs, we should probably continue with the diminished upside, but still upside included. And that's where, you know, having reasonable expectations of where to clip, you know, if you want to clip, if you have financial goals out of being in crypto, understanding what the likely, you know, diminished gain from this new low would be. I think we're in a season where we can get ahead of a vast majority of the talking heads in crypto by thinking about this right now and setting that game plan while the chips are down to know when to clip it, know when to hold them and you know when to fold them, right? So, I'm just kind of in that season. And, you know, for me, pumping from 18 or what was the low was about 16,000 up to uh, you know, pumping from 16 up to and we could do this like this so I can get the full scope. We We basically rally by 677%.
Right? 6.7x. And I hate saying 6.7x. Say 67.
>> 7.7x. Sorry, I'm I'm pedantic about the percentage gain. 7.7x 600% is a 7x.
>> Okay. Okay. Now, this draw this runup rather was 1,400, right? So, essentially cut in half. Um then, you know, I want to look at the uh previous one here. Let's actually see where this one ran to. So that was a 1,400% that we ran to 21, about a 700% that we just went through.
And then this one is a much smaller market cap, exponentially much smaller market cap, um, where you're basically running by, you know, 13,000%. So you have a very strong diminished gains scenario since inception in Bitcoin.
And looking at this, if we get around a 700% increase cut down by half, you know, seeing a run up to, you know, $200,000 Bitcoin is a 180% increase.
I don't think that it's out of question that we end up topping out, you know, in the mid 200s, maybe even low 200s the next blowoff top. Like thinking about it in terms of that perspective and understanding where it's okay to start taking profits now will help us build financial goals for when this move ends up happening to the upside again.
because then you're going to see the every single bull market we get in, we start putting the target a little bit higher and a little bit higher and everything that I figured would send Bitcoin absolutely ballistic just happened in the last bull market. You had the ETFs, you had a strategic reserve, literal president talking about it. Um, so just in that perspective, I want us to keep our expectations uh in check for the next few years, right? I don't want us to get lost into the moon.
>> Well, I'm going to say this. 52 is going to be more. It's going to be more than 52%. That's how I am predicting. That's my prediction here.
>> Think so.
>> It will go lower 59 60K.
>> Yeah. Where do you think it'll end up being? Cuz we went from 88 877.
We're currently at a low of >> uh just to keep it brief here. Let's see here. I'm kind of looking at more of a dollar amount. So, let me give you the dollar amount, then I'll give you the percentage here. I think we got a dip into I I want to say the mid50s. I I think we go a little bit lower than this. I'm I'm not sure. Maybe we only go to 55. So maybe only an additional 5 to 6%. Maybe maybe we only fall about 57%. But that'd be my prediction there. Let's talk about uh we just got a major unbanning of Bitcoin here. Pakistan a serious country, serious population. They have nukes. They have nukes. Okay. Pakistan just unbanned Bitcoin. Only seven countries still outlaw Bitcoin. We are now down to China, Algeria. I didn't know Egypt. I know Egypt doesn't ban gold bars being sent to US politicians.
Talking about gold bar Menendez from New Jersey, Bangladesh, Nepal, Afghanistan, and Morocco. So Taliban Taliban don't like Bitcoin, Drew.
>> Well, you know, I mean, who can blame them? Who can blame them? I mean, they're involved with uh I I don't think that the CIA's payments to them want to be on the blockchain and >> Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Yeah, they're doing cash for Poppy. Correct.
Right.
>> Yeah. You don't want to be on the blockchain.
>> I mean, the Taliban famously, they say, I don't know if this true or not. I wasn't on the ground but they say Taliban you know did not allow any opium growing and then after the fall of the Taliban in 2002ish uh then they started I mean there's a lot of a lot of poppy was grown which was interestingly very very good and lucrative for US drug companies because they have to get those precursors from there and some say there's a black market for the precursors it's not all hunky dory I don't know if that's true or not but hey they did it in Ozarks they literally did it in Ozarks and I it is said way before that but tether adding millions of dollars of Bitcoin to their reserves.
They now have almost 100,000 Bitcoin.
They're now up to 97,141.
It is worth 7.16 billion. And they've been buying Bitcoin under their 2023 policy. 15% of realized operating profits go into Bitcoin.
Speaking of gold, oh yeah, there's Oh yeah, they they bought more though. They bought more. It's primarily so they have reserves, a lot of reserves. All the tether combined is worth 185 billion.
You hope they have, you know, at least that much, right? Well, they have 10 billion in net profit for 2025. So, we may even see more, but is mostly made up of cash-like assets. 141 billion of that 185 is US government debt. They have about 63 uh over 6 billion in excess reserves. I guess they're 186 billion in liabilities. And they have a little bit of a buffer above the issue tokens. And they have drew $17 billion in gold.
That's a lot of gold. That made Gold Bar Menendez very happy if he saw that stash.
>> Absolutely, man. That's that's a nice balance, too. You know, I mean, I think uh having gold exposure is something I've never hated. And um gold is one of the best stable coins and off-ramps that I know of in crypto. Uh so you know sending crypto gains in for gold bars held for a long enough time never never does you wrong.
>> Yeah. Our predictions still holding true. You know we had that shaky support. I mean you can see how shaky it was right there with that wick. We talk about this parallel range. Where where's the parallel range come from? Well you just look at the tops right here. Look at the top right there. Wait for it.
Drew. Oh I don't know why I hit people with the fs there. Fonzy. Hey.
And I'm gonna slap a jukebox. Uh this is a story of two ranges. On the bottom, you know, we got that shaky support 4,400. This is going to be a shifting target. The longer it takes to hit the top, the more low the price is going to be when it does hit the top. Let's just say it happens in the next 5 days. 1 2 3 That's seven.
Uh you know, 5,100. It can happen as late as I mean, it can happen for a while. It can happen two weeks from now and still hit 5K. Mhm.
>> Still a shot gold's going to reach 5k sometime in the near term. Looking for silver. I did see something in the silver charts. This is a little bit of an update here. Still also kind of looking at the same stuff here. Got a little bit of a parallel range. The top end of the range looks pretty good. If we pump to the top of the range, everybody's going to go bullish on silver. You're going to hear $200 an ounce soon. I'm going to stay bearish and I'm going to be right. I'm putting my flag in the ground right now. We got this pretty strong support right here.
But what is this hidden bear div on the 4 hour?
Well, we have the price fairly neutral. That's why it's a hidden bear div. Fairly neutral where the RSI is marketkedly lower here. And so we could see a little bit of bearish pressure in the near term. I didn't want to look at oil. Oil bounced off our range beautifully. We talked about this level of support. You can see it a lot better on the 4 hour.
Boom. Boom. Boom. It we could not could not go below this range. You can see boom, we hit it perfectly there. Try we had one daily below this range right here and immediately blasted to the top.
Bounced along in this area. Fast forward to where we're at. Look at that 4hour wick right there. Also, oil, you know, in this upper parallel range, but it is become there is a crossroads. It must choose left or right. There there is a line in the sand once these two things intersect. So, we're still in this parallel range. Then we come against this. Not only are we, you know, creating a higher high, we are invalidating this low right here. So, a lot of moving parts with the oil story, we do got some updates. Of course, you probably heard about the original blockade from Iran and then Trump. We're going to blockade their blockade.
Apparently, Alan Dersowitz is the one who gave the plan to Trump. We're going to just not comment on that. All Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions and vessels suspected of carrying contraband are now subject to belligerent right to visit and search.
So regardless of location, they can visit, board, search, seizure. It's going to be under our maritime law that we're we're, you know, citing here.
Contraband. So what's the contraband that we're going to be looking for?
Weapons, ammunition, combat aircraft, military electronics, petroleum products, and lubricants. Diddy is furious. are conditional contraband due to their essential role in military operations. So this is going to also include oil, but this could be taken off at a moment's notice. Now, Sentcom said in the first 48 hours, no ships have breached the blockade. Well, we're seeing conflicting reports. It's 5 hours ago. There's a lot of smart, rich, wealthy people paying a lot of attention to this. It does look like there's 27 large trading ships that it did track that cross since the 13th that we're looking at 3 days ago. 81% of the ships that transited since the 13th were affiliated with Iran through ownership, flag or port calls in Iran. So 81% of the ships have Iranian links. Now remember, Sentcom said no ships have successfully broken the blockade while 10 ships have been turned around. 81% of ships that transited transited the straight were affiliates. So this is two things that cannot exist at the same time. One of them's not accurate. I I don't know which is which. I was going to hit refresh to see if we have anything crazy. Looks like Lebanon and Israel still starting to escalate. Uh we're trying to calm down the oil markets. Breaking news. Don't worry everybody, we are going to ensure the ships.
Yeah. Um I know that Beirut got hit by like a 100 missiles in 10 minutes uh you know a few days ago. So it doesn't look very peaceful. And we are also retrofitting Chevy and GM plants here in the United States for military equipment production now. So doesn't seem very peaceful to me and it doesn't seem like uh it's too easy to stop the Iranianis and the Iranian government from causing havoc. And you can turn off transpounders traveling through there.
Like the maritime I I watch the maritime tracker all the time and there's just a ship that goes dark as it's approaching and all of a sudden it comes back on after.
>> Yeah. I think in the Simpsons they call them ghost cars. You know, headlights just disappear and it's just them dang ghost cars will get you there. I don't know why I pulled up a Chief Wiggum reference from like 1994, but I did.
Anyways, uh there is I I like this one.
They say they're the one that used by the insurance providers. If that is true, I haven't done my own verified research here, but if that's true, you should listen to what the insurance providers are looking at. I think they're going to have a lot more detail than probably anybody else except for the military, of course. But, uh, according to this tanker trackers.com here, 210,000 followers, they did spot more tankers today on satellite imagery that made it past the blockade are now in Iran. One actually belongs to Iran and several sanctions compliant tankers are headed to Iraq with as Drew said their transponders switched off. So there you go right there. Don't think about the time frame like Trump just came out and like me and Gi Jinping are getting along great again and we're going to hang out the White House. I'm going to China. He's smoothing out relations with China because, you know, essentially if you do actually shut the straight, you cause a massive civil unrest situation for a lot of countries on the southern border of China. They don't have a lot of clean water and they have most of their energy imported. So if you do shut off their uh you know their products coming in then China all of a sudden has a civil unrest problem in their southern sector.
>> I want to say it was Malaysia. They're paying about double uh what you pay from a port call here because they got to pay they got to there's a lot of hoops that they're having to jump through and they are 100% reliant on imports there. Uh this is 5 hours ago. There's a super tanker heading to Car Island that belongs to Iran. This one is, you know, if it leaves, this is a very I mean, leaving Car Island is a little bit different than leaving some of the other ports there. If you leave Car Island where 90% of Iranian oil is being sent through, that is and and if it goes to China and it passes the blockade, I would say there really isn't a blockade, >> right?
>> But this is a developing story. We'll see what happens when it leaves Kar.
>> Yeah. And that's why, you know, I brought up the GM and Ford manufacturing facilities being retrofitted for literal World War time.
>> What What are your thoughts on that? Is the beginning sign of the fourth world turning that we're going to an economy that's just going to be more similar to what we saw in the mid-40s, just full-blown production or military operations.
>> Russia's playing it. the playbook of that Russia is showing right now. Is their economy of the norm is in the gutter while their wartime economy >> is that a sustainable economy because you know you press a button and then your million-doll asset just evaporates into dust. So it's not like where you build a bridge or you build a technology that people can use and it more of a long-term economic effect. This is a one-time economic effect.
>> Yeah, I bet you can run it for 10 20 years. You know, I think you could run it for 10, 20 years. As long as you don't see any giant >> Can we just build bridges and buy, you know, build flying cars instead of doing things with explosives?
>> Don't drag logic into this situation, DZ. Jeez, >> can we put a base on the moon before we do all this stuff?
>> No, it's it's not going to happen that way. Um, and Russia's proven it, man.
Like, they're completely shifting to a wartime economy, and it's really doing quite well for them. They don't really have an incentive to stop. So, you know, just seeing us getting ready to do this here in the US, it's an old playbook.
It's not going to be the exact same as 1940, 1930 time frame, but it will rhyme. I think it will rhyme. So, >> all right. Well, speaking of rhyming, Tom Lee's bullish again.
This time with another crazy target.
$60,000 Ethereum. What is he talking about? So, this was a keynote speech. He had the keynote at Paris Blockchain Week. This is from last 24 hours. Equity markets according to him have bottomed due to the war with Iran here. ETH will emerge from its massive consolidation driven by tokenization and agentic AI initiatives.
He said ETH is probably on its way to $60,000 if his market thesis is correct and later described 62 as a fair value scenario over the next few years based on ETH reaching one quarter of Bitcoin's long-term value. That is quite the prediction right there. I think exceeding 10% is, you know, let's start with that. Let's start with that before we start talking about 25%. They're way down on their ETH holdings, >> almost $4 billion just for a quarterly loss right there. And that just got me thinking about altcoins here. Now, I saw this post from Klein Funding. Uh big shout out to Klein Funding. I know Drew, if you want to learn more about prop trading, go check out that video that they did, but talks about, you know, just an interesting unpopular opinion.
Trading more pairs doesn't reduce your risk. It actually multiplies it. They say only pick three to five that you genuinely understand. Go deep on those.
Ignore the rest. I will say the best traders do typically stick to Bitcoin when it comes to crypto and like one or two altcoins. They don't trade all of the things here. I was wondering, Drew, if you could only trade one altcoin for the rest of the year in chat, if you could only trade one altcoin, what altcoin would you trade? Oh man, I have a lot of luck with Salana and a for some reason and Morpho. If I had to choose out of them, I'd probably go with Salana, though. I Yeah, I'd choose Salana. That's That's me personally. And you know, when you get into uh prop trading, I that actually kind of matches my uh trading style because you have to mitigate the downturn and you're aiming for an uptick of like 10 15% to pass the evaluation.
And passing the evaluation is not easy.
You have to be very serious about using a stop-loss to mitigate those losses and to know how to take a punch in the face when you're leverage trading. I mean, that's just basically how it is. and you go in, you take the evaluation and some of my trading style kind of matches how you have to make it through the barrier of entry, you know, for Klein funding or any prop firm really. And it's good opportunity for armchair coaches that are out here, you know, calling the market correctly.
>> The the Monday morning quarterback, I like to call them. You know, here's what Tom Brady should have done in that moment.
>> All right. You you do that why four dudes that weigh 400 lb are chasing you.
>> Yeah. So, you know, just for an example, like, you know, I had a long thesis yesterday um and it got stopped out, right? I let my stop loss get hit. It breaks the range and then I re-enter on the same thesis, seeing some confluence in shorter time frames and ended up, you know, I got stopped out here, took a punch in the face and ended up getting my entry point on that same thesis and long right here at about $73,618.
Then, you know, I let it run. Me and Justin were in the office late and I ended up clipping this bad boy right here at 75200, right? So, you have to learn how to mitigate losses, but then also let the runners run so that you can hit those massive upticks. And that ended up being a 96% trade for me. Um, you know, but I had to keep with discipline, understand if you lost the range and not diamond hand things just hoping that they turn around, right? understand how to take a punch in a fight on uh on leverage. You definitely have to >> uh Crank asking how ZoomX is going going well. Going well. We actually had a bunch of trades come in from the Discord quant and I'm going to show you that in a second. Someone else said uh something about a where do you see a going next cycle? I don't know where the question is. I lost the question there. But a going next cycle. I I do have a couple thoughts on that. Here we go. That was from Ricky Romero. Ricky Romero. Well, I have an answer for you, Ricky. Ricky, Ricky, here we go. So, one, I would look at the recent tops. This is the Trump pump and then we had the little second pump for a lot of altcoins. And if you run this out, you're gonna see something kind of interesting.
Top top. You hit the candle bodies on the week there and you hit this wick right there. So, this to me actually has pretty decent confluence. I'm gonna probably sell all my a here. I don't have the biggest bag in the world, but I definitely have a little a bag. We called you, you know, people are asking this is weekly candles again. People asked the last couple weeks, should we sell or a should we sell or a I'm holding on to mine because this is a bullish chart pattern. This is a falling wedge. Falling wedges break to the upside the majority of the time roughly.
You hear 71%, you hear 68%. Let's just say twothirds of the time and it took 1 2 3 4 5 6 days. I mean that's just a nice bullish breakout. Now we could definitely come down retest this trend line. This trend line is just measuring those right there. I'm not saying it is up only from here, but that is a a bullish signal right there in case you were wondering folks. Uh we have a clarity update insiders JP Morgan released a report yesterday. This was for their employees. This is for their analysts. This is for their analysts for their select clients. I don't want to say it's like some hidden document or something, but this isn't a public document. They said the US crypto rule book for the Clarity Act close to completion. And there was a specific here. One senior policy official noted that the list of contentious items has narrowed from roughly a dozen to just two three issues on the clarity act while debate around stable coin rewards is now in a good place. So JP Morgan insiders are saying we are close. Now, is this Now, here's the question, Drew.
True or false, chat? Is this truth because, hey, they got the inside info, or is this false because they're trying to, you know, push a narrative?
>> True or false, chat. What do you think, Drew?
>> Uh, I think September, October is what we should actually be patient enough to get to. Um, you know, this this Clarity Act, it'd be nice to see it happen sooner than later, but this is a pretty big deal for banks to accept uh crypto for the way it is. And crypto is trying to fight to stay the way it is um in terms of DeFi rewards that can be earned and all the good things that can be offered in crypto. And Jay Andrew actually uh reminded us, we missed a super chat yesterday, >> I think. Um he was asking about lo uh you know since we're talking about lending you know with a where the price has fallen down to and I I I pay pretty close attention to lending as well. Lido Dow just looking at the comparison of the charts is kind of interesting. um you know in terms of like DeFi Lama activity this thing does not look bad at all in terms of TVL on Lido and you're not seeing a big draw down on fees either. Um generally speaking the lending market is staying pretty darn strong. Um but I do want to show the good that's going on with lending before showing the actual lido chart. So this is the lending chart. um where you see the active loans and TVL in the blue, uh active loans in the in the pink there, they're really not looking too bad, but when you go to Lido's chart, there seems to be something a miss here.
Uh you see general strength in the TVL.
This is almost giving me vibes where you're seeing strength in the TVL and the token price is cascading to the downside.
I am of the opinion that in this bare market there will be blood.
And me personally, if I'm looking at this chart, I would want to see Lido break above a dollar uh 20 dollar 255 and prove it as support essentially these two volume pockets. Uh to to kind of feel like I'm ready to put my money back into the market to party because >> I'm I'm a little bit worried. I I'm waiting for more confirmation. I just I mean you can see with the green dotted line, but that's where we're at right here.
>> Mhm.
>> That could act as resistance.
>> Yes. Yes. Then that's kind of why I want to see it, you know, be able to prove price action is still there because I feel like this might be being exited by insiders. Just looking at the chart.
Dang, that's that's a 75% draw down in less than a year.
>> Yeah. Um, you know, and and lending I don't think is dying, but it's almost like when you see it's like talking about like honey isn't bad for you, but most of the honey is fake. Uh, so, you know, it's not that it's bad to eat honey, it's just that you have to understand a lot of honey is falsified, not real honey. This might >> I'll say this is you one thing you got to think about when you're looking at the blue part. So the blue part is how much they're making and fees. TVL is also this one thing you really got to think about.
>> ETH's price fluctuates this. So this isn't people leaving, you know, leaving Lido Dow withdrawing their tokens. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but this could just be ETH's price falling because this is measured not in the amount of Lido staked ETH. This is measured in the dollar amount, the fiat amount. So, that's going to change the math there.
This might be worth looking into. You know, what is their staked ETH amount and what what does that look like, though? I did want to share one thing. I was talking about the trading chat earlier. We had a nice string of wins in Oh my god. Oh, that's a take profit at 9:30. I was going to say I missed the trades uh because I thought they were earlier. Yeah, we're we're talking I mean, this is just a nice nice set of wins. And it looks like the last one's coming in uh yesterday afternoon. So, you jumped in on some of those yesterday afternoon. I think I was on the road there. I missed those. Uh congrats. So, good job. But we have a link down below for our trading discord. I was showing John Dalton earlier. He was long on Salana. Gave everyone a nice little uh Salana challenge. We got a trading chat.
You can go in there, chop it up, talk to us, hang out, and uh if you want to join the the one tier we got where you could we'll rate your portfolio as well.
>> Yeah. And you know, trading it can be really lucrative. Like yesterday, just on that uh trade process I showed you guys, I mean, it ended up making me 94% on that trade. And you know on Bitcoin, I'm going to just kind of say it now. If we see diminished gains and diminished losses continue and 59 is proved as that bottom, that's going to bring us to a price target of 220 to $260,000 at the next peak. So that's generally my vibe. And there's obviously catalyst that can change that. And I can shift with, you know, new adoption. If I see the government actively buying Bitcoin or if I see big governments actively buying rather than just confiscating things of that nature, I can shift my thesis. I reserve the right to do so.
But if the water remains the way it is, that's kind of what I'm looking at. 220 to about 260. So, >> all right. Well, folks, everybody, that is our show for today. Smash the like button on the way out. It really does help us out. If you're not subscribed to the channel, please consider subscribing to the channel. I put out a banger video last night as well, covering a lot of what we're expecting in the market for alt season. I gave you my alt season thoughts. I gave you my levels. I gave you where I think and why I think we're going to be heading, where we're heading. So, if you're not watching our uploads, you're only watching lives, you're missing. Definitely a lot of the alpha that we're putting out there. And again, it really does help support us when you hit that like button, when you are subscribed. So, we do appreciate it.
And that's all we got for today. Me and Drew will see you in the future. Adios.
We just wanted to take a quick second to shout out our sponsor, Arculus. They are a cold storage hardware wallet. Helps you secure all of your digital assets for the future. Just tap this thing to the back of your phone and boom, you're in. We wouldn't be able to do this without them, but also wouldn't be able to do this without you guys, the Disco Fam. You've supported us a lot over the years. If you want to support the channel now, just use the code DC20. It gets you 20% off this card. It's the number one way you can support this channel going forward. We thank you for your support. We'll see you at the top.
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