Weekly Trading Prep: Inflation, Fed Speakers & Dollar Strength — What Traders Must Watch

Ajouté : 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]watch the our call that uh I put out earlier for you guys, the 10-day challenge. So, I'm hoping that you guys are excited for it.

[00:00:12]You know, I definitely want to want you guys to all participate and get started in it, guys.

[00:00:41]All right, guys. Get this started for you guys. I I know like the past few Sundays has been crazy.

[00:00:49]But, I think it's best to just most likely wait until we get a clear reason to take advantage of, right?

[00:00:56]Recording in progress.

[00:00:58]Welcome to our weekly prep. So, we're going to go over This is just a weekly prep. So, we're just going to go over what is the main focus for the week so you could look for the best tradeable opportunities for this week. That's the whole purpose of this call so you know exactly what to pay attention to that could lead to pretty much the best tradeable opportunities. All right. So, just starting out, right?

[00:01:25]Uh focusing on the Iran war negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz, right? Oil, gold, and dollar.

[00:01:34]Uh can you guys hear me?

[00:01:41]You hear me, Kathy? Yes, probably Yeah, Alex. I think it's you. It's showing good on my end.

[00:01:49]But, this is what's been actually the main focus for a a a long time, you know? So, it's extremely important to be aware of the news headlines about what's next, what's next, what's next, right? Because the main focus is are we going to get a deal or no deal? Obviously, it does look like we're not going to get any sort of deal to end this this war. Like personally me, I have a good feeling that what's probably going to happen is the US is just probably just going to back out.

[00:02:28]>> [laughter] >> Right? There's going to be no negotiation, no nothing. We're just going to probably see Trump just start telling the military just to back out. I think it's just and they're going to leave the straight and the the situation with the straight and the vessels going through, they're just going to leave that up to the other countries along with Iran. I think the whole purpose is is Trump trying to get all of these countries to just start buying oil from the US instead. I think it was a big fail that China said they're not uh going to buy oil from the US, that they still want to buy oil from Iran. Thought that was kind of interesting. I think that's a pretty much a failure of that meeting with China yesterday. But uh we talked about it yesterday, all right? I'll show you guys could go here.

[00:03:16]We we we did talk about it yesterday.

[00:03:20]Just so you guys could get a rundown, right? And welcome, welcome, dude. Uh Yeah, welcome, Plaza. Yeah, you're going to enjoy it.

[00:03:28]Uh let me just scroll up so I could find it.

[00:03:31]I know it was I know we talked about it yesterday, right?

[00:03:39]Yeah, because China is now becoming one of the the the biggest, right? When it comes to producing AI chips. And the whole US goal is trying to restrict them from their getting independence like when it comes to AI growth.

[00:03:57]So, that's one of the the biggest moves.

[00:03:59]Like right now, China is moving fast towards chip independence. Reports suggest that China domestic AI chip production has grown heavily in the past few years. So, why does it matters, right? Because it affects Nvidia, US chip companies. Less China demand means less uh future revenue, right? So, this could be bad for Nasdaq if if this if the US if China just push away the US from everything. This is one of the reasons why they just they really didn't want China to invade Taiwan. US power chip controls become weaker if China can build its own supply.

[00:04:32]AI dominance, however, controls the chip controls a major part of the AI race.

[00:04:38]Okay, so market sentiment uh semiconductors, tech stocks, China stocks, and risk assets could all be affected. So, this China trip wasn't just about diplomacy. It was about business, power, technology, and control. So, the US wants to keep selling chips to maintain influence.

[00:04:54]China wants to become independent and build on its own AI future. This is why the AI talks are so important. All right, so that that's what happened over the week like last week. And what you know, we thinking that it they also I I I personally don't think any of it had to do with the Iran war.

[00:05:11]Like uh I don't think that China knows Trump knows that China is not going to help with Iran backing down, you know?

[00:05:19]But I think it's more about the AI situation. But just moving forward for this week, the main focus, right? So, Iran uh stated that the US sent the five-point counter proposal. So, it seems this is weird. Like Iran sends a proposal, then the US sends a proposal.

[00:05:33]They're never agreeing upon it. But uh it it doesn't matter who really what it is. I don't think that they're they're going to agree to it, right?

[00:05:43]So, the the last part though it says any ceasefire depends on successful negotiations. And a part of the negotiations is Iran no nuclear.

[00:05:52]Right? So, as long as we don't see that part if if if Iran does agree to not have a nuclear like anything nuclear, then most likely the ceasefire will be optimistic. But, we just going to have to focus on this, right? Cuz Iran position, they want a full ceasefire on all fronts, full sanction relief.

[00:06:10]And they want to be recognized as the ones that have full control of the strait.

[00:06:16]So, what we got to focus on though when what we got to focus on though when it comes to oil, when it comes to the markets is what's happening with the flow of vessels through the strait. That's what's really impacting inflation.

[00:06:29]That's what's really the markets actually caring about. So, scenario one, if we get a deal, right? Uh we'll see if these things happen. If Iran softens its stance, if the US shows flexibility.

[00:06:41]Uh talks continue through Pakistan, China, and other mediators. More ships passing safely through the strait. No major drone or ships or any incidents.

[00:06:52]Right? If language shifts more about progress, good talks, or deal framework.

[00:06:58]If we get any of that possibility, right? Oil could go bearish, dollar will push bearish, equities will go bullish, and usually gold goes bullish as well.

[00:07:08]But, scenario two, if we see that we're getting a no deal, more escalations. And this is how the tone could be, right? If Iran rejects the the proposal very strongly.

[00:07:20]If Trump and the US calls Iran response unacceptable like what he did last time, right? News headlines or threats are issued. More ships are being seized or blocked. Or more drone strikes or attacks, especially in infrastructures.

[00:07:35]If we see that the strait traffic remains low, and ceasefire violations increase.

[00:07:42]Right? So, if we see these type of language going on with these headlines, expect oil to go bullish, gold will most likely go bearish, right? Dollar would would go bullish and equities will go bearish, okay? So, that's what we will focus on when it comes to that, guys.

[00:08:00]And in a in a Discord like this could be a lot easier for you guys to maintain. I think the best thing to do is try to like put it in your notes. So, you have like key You know what key opportunities to focus on. A new thing that happened too is that now we're seeing Cuba drone threat, right? That Cuba now is also like what what what the hell is going on? Like are we going to go to war with Cuba with Cuba now? So, focusing on what happens next with Cuba is a good thing too because this is just this is not like the Iran war, right? So, it's a possibility if we it depends on what happens. If it's like like a Venezuela type of action, most likely markets it's it's just the the situation might be too quick for the markets to even care. Like but focus on the drone strikes and right? So, and then focus like we're going to focus on more discussion and what what more topics we're going to get between the US officials, right?

[00:09:01]When it comes to this Cuba incident that just happened, all right? So, let's watch the US response.

[00:09:08]It could be from Trump, the Pentagon, or the White House regarding what goes on with Cuba. If we see new sanctions like being sent on Cuba, I don't the markets might not really care.

[00:09:18]It's more than likely going to be about military action, all right? So, if if if if we see that it stays contained, like if if there's just sanctions and warnings only, personally, I don't think the markets is going to care.

[00:09:35]But if we see military action like troops are being sent over there, this ends up being a way worse situation than what we thought, then I think equities pushing lower could be the best option, but this could also cause gold to rise as a safe haven, right? Because there's military action.

[00:09:53]But, I would say that probably the best option is like defense stocks, right?

[00:09:58]Pushing higher or just looking for sell-offs in the equity markets like Nasdaq, S&P 500, or the Dow Jones. All right, I would say that would be the best bet if we focusing on the Cuba situation.

[00:10:10]So, main focus for this week regarding uh economic data, Tuesday we're going to have home sales.

[00:10:16]Yes, equities would be the best. Yeah, gold might be a little tricky. Uh Fed meeting minutes is going to be on Wednesday, plus we got Nvidia earnings, okay? So, the earnings of Nvidia going to be very very important for Nasdaq as well. Not really much data coming out.

[00:10:31]The focus is more about headlines, news headlines, right? Focusing on risk sentiment if we're getting risk on or risk off markets, right? And then here's a a good uh view of the earnings and then and it shows you like what asset is actually being impacted, right? So, you can see Nvidia is I would say that's just the main focus this week is Nvidia.

[00:10:52]Like uh yeah, I would say yeah, just Nvidia. Walmart is a good one, too.

[00:10:57]Like Target, Lowe's, that's just like focusing on consumer spending like Home Home Home Depot, BJ's.

[00:11:04]Uh Whole Yeah, like BJ's Whole Wholesale Club, like stuff like that is good for like tracking consumer spending, you know, consumer power and stuff like that. So, but Nvidia is the main focus, right? So, Nvidia is going to definitely push what happens to Nasdaq. And and that's just really it when it comes to uh the the weekly prep, right? Because the the focus is just going to be strictly on news headlines. So, I would say that's that's pretty much what we will focus on then. Uh one sec, guys.

[00:12:08]Yeah, so far Yeah, gold will be choppy, like 100% like I would I would like gold has been choppy this whole time, you know, and looking for like that's why I said when we go through the you go through the trading plan, right? And if you are trading gold, just wait for reasons.

[00:12:28]Don't try to trade uh based off of just technicals only.

[00:12:33]You want to try to align a reason with that as well.

[00:12:36]Uh the fact that Iran is trying to feed on a Yeah, on a straight can be made risk off. Yeah, it could be. Yes, 100% it could be, but I would try to I would try to still focus on what's next, you know?

[00:12:53]Uh like right now like over the weekend like I probably wouldn't be so aggressive on a Sunday trying to take a trade. Try to focus on like what could happen next.

[00:13:02]Like the whole markets know that they're not going to really make a deal, you know what I'm saying? So, is it really worth a actual trade to take advantage of? It probably wouldn't, you you know? So, I I would probably try to see like obviously like military action is a good one.

[00:13:19]I would Sorry, I'm confused on gold being bullish from any uh straight risk or oil disruptions. I Yeah, that's why I told you in voice note, Jonathan. Uh like you have videos to go like there's a I did a bunch of videos like last weekend Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Like I went over all of this like about the the strait when you go through the course.

[00:13:41]Uh also the videos I I had a video breaking down the wars. So I had it's all there. You know, so like try not to just jump right in and just look for trades. Like go through that, right? Because then when the headline comes out, then you will understand why. You know what I'm saying? So cuz like I'm just bringing it to your attention because it's not just for you, it's everybody else, too. Like there's there's videos all types of videos on this stuff so that like when you go through it, it would answer your question. And then then you're going to have another question and then that's how you get better. But yeah, the reason why gold is um being impacted bullish, right? Like what you said like gold being bullish from the strait being disrupted is because it's causing oil prices to rise because it's impacting supply.

[00:14:29]So that's inflationary. So this is why inflation is rising. This is what's causing the dollar and the yields to rise. Central banks is not cutting interest rates. So this is what's causing more of a hawkish reaction and that's what's causing gold to push lower. So if there's a passage going through the strait, right?

[00:14:50]Like this is causing gold to rise because now it's deflationary. You know?

[00:14:55]So it's making the dollar and the yields go lower. It's weakening oil, lowering uh inflation expectations. So that's causing gold to push higher because it's going to put in more idea of rate cuts, right? Lower interest rates is is bad for the dollar. So that's what's causing gold to react to it.

[00:15:15]Uh what folder that would be in? Uh I put it in um Yeah, I'mma to it to the banter again.

[00:15:21]But we like I'mma to put it in banter again so you can see it, but if you go to the announcements tab uh you you should be able to see it there in the announcements tab. Like just hit announcements and just scroll up, you should be able to find it.

[00:15:33]Yeah, so far any questions? Are you guys are good? Like uh yeah, I'm a I got to get another mouse, guys. My up.

[00:15:43]Yeah, I was supposed to get one. I probably got time today to just go to Best Buy.

[00:15:56]Yeah, you're welcome. No problem.

[00:16:11]All right, guys, put a one if you guys are good. Like right now, like looking at the markets I would just be cautious. Don't like try to rush into a trade. Remember A+ like A1 setups, right? Look for a clear edge.

[00:16:24]Like um I recommend you guys also um Do you have recommendation apps or sites for me to keep track of headlines? It is in the newsfeed.

[00:16:36]Like the the newsfeed that's in the Discord. You should be getting the the notifications all the time just like all of us.

[00:16:43]Like every time a headline comes out, you should get it. You uh if you don't if you don't have it, you probably are you're blocking the the notifications.

[00:17:31]>> All right, guys. So, I'll see you guys in the chats and I will do a trip like probably like a little later today.

[00:17:38]Uh just so that this is separate. I'll do another I will do a trade ideas breakdown for like a later for Asian session for you guys because this is a it's still a little too early. So, I don't want to do it now. Like let's wait until give it a little more time.

[00:17:54]And then we can start looking for you guys that trade technicals. Y'all could be looking for other opportunities. So, I'll do that later for you guys.

[00:18:00]All right, guys. I'll be right back.

[00:19:55]>> Hey.