High Heat and Surf - NWS San Diego Weather Briefing 7/21/26

[00:00:00]So, we're going to go ahead and get started. Thank you for joining me. My name is Chandler Price. I'm with the National Weather Service San Diego. And in this webinar, we're going to be talking about uh the upcoming seven days, more or less, uh including some dangerous heat and high surf. So, let's go ahead and get started.

[00:00:18]All right. So, this is the basic overview of this week. Uh the big story is heat. We're looking at moderate to major even to locally extreme heat risk through early next week. uh generally starting Wednesday, really ramping up Thursday into the weekend. Uh this includes low temperatures well above average inland due to high humidity. Uh you might have noticed it's felt quite muggy recently. That's going to continue through next week. Uh besides that, we're looking at elevated surf and the strong rip currents that will come from that. Uh likely peaking between Thursday and Saturday.

[00:00:54]And then finally, we've got a slight chance for showers over the mountains and the high desert Thursday, Friday.

[00:01:00]And there's a a small chance associated with that for some isolated thunderstorms as well.

[00:01:06]So, what's bringing these conditions?

[00:01:08]Real quick, this is just a map of pressure over the area. Uh the redder reds equals higher pressure. Uh so, we've got high pressure to our southwest and to our southeast. It's going to do two things. that's going to increase your temperatures. And then you can see down here, some of this flow from the southeast is going to help bring that moisture in. Um, and that's really sort of the big story this week. Um, so as I said, temperatures are going to start to climb Wednesday. Um, they're really going to peak Thursday through Sunday and then they're going to gradually cool early next week. And humidity is going to drop as well, which is going to help with that that muggy feeling. Um, this is going to bring moderate to major heat risk through all inland areas by Thursday and then locally extreme heat risk in the low deserts. So, the Coachella San Diego deserts Friday through Sunday. Um, the high temperatures aren't exceptional, but elevated overnight lows uh due to that continued higher humidity is really going to limit that overnight relief for people. And that's really what's driving this this high this major to locally extreme heat risk, especially in the deserts. Um, and it's going to feel muggy pretty much everywhere uh late this week.

[00:02:25]So, let's get to some numbers. This is Wednesday. We're looking at high temperatures for the region. Uh, as you can see, there's very few places in our entire region that are going to be below 80 degrees, uh, away from the immediate beaches, pretty much nowhere. Uh so we're looking at, you know, uh 80s into the 90s for the valleys, uh approaching 100 in the Inland Empire and the high desert and uh getting up towards just above 110 in those low deserts. Uh Thursday things ramp up. These temperatures are a few too up to about six degrees above Wednesdays. Um once again, we're looking at, you know, very very few places in the 70s. It's uh 80s 80s along the coast uh 90s inland up to 105 107 or so in the Inland Empire and then approaching 115 in those low deserts.

[00:03:20]Um Friday through Sunday temperatures aren't going to change very much. They might bump up a few degrees from Thursday. H but a dayto-day change is going to be very little. This is pretty much what we're looking at for the whole weekend. Yeah, once again we're looking at 80s along the coast, approaching 100 in some of those inland valleys, over 100 in the Inland Empire, 115 117 the low deserts, and 105 100 to about 110 in the high desert there.

[00:03:51]Um, as I mentioned, uh, low temperatures are, uh, remaining to be quite elevated due to that, uh, higher humidity in the area. few places are going to drop below 70 overnight and that's going to really limit that overnight relief especially in the low deserts. You can see we're looking at mid to high 80s overnight. Um so that's going to that's really going to put some heat stress on people. Uh so this is Friday morning minimum temperatures and Saturday morning minimum temperatures pretty similar couple degrees up or down in some places uh but otherwise still quite warm and above average.

[00:04:27]Uh so this is resulting in some heat products uh on the left and those orange colors for most of those inland areas, valleys, mountains. We're looking at a heat advisory there. Uh and that's going to be between Wednesday 7:22 through Monday 7:27. Uh there's extreme heat warnings in all the deserts. Uh low desert San Diego Coachelli that goes from uh Coachella Valley, excuse me.

[00:04:50]That goes from Wednesday through Monday as well. Uh for the high desert, we're actually starting Thursday and that'll continue through Monday. It's just going to take a second for that to uh heat up to those extreme heat warning levels.

[00:05:01]It's in the the higher deserts.

[00:05:05]Uh just a reminder about what this means. Uh extreme heat watches precede conditions. So we issue those when dangerous heat is possible. Uh once dangerous heat is happening or it's about to happen, we go warning advisory.

[00:05:19]Uh so extreme heat warning is for dangerous heat. Uh we're asking people to avoid heavy activity in direct sunlight. Heat advisories is for oppressive heat. So not quite as bad but still quite warm. And we're asking people to limit strenuous active uh activities and direct sunlight in that case. So both of them you're at a risk for heat illnesses but you are at more of a risk. A larger set of the population is more risk at more at risk for the extreme heat warnings and the advisories. Uh, and like I said, the the warning advisories is for the majority of our area through this week besides the the beaches. [snorts] All right, so moving on to rain and thunderstorms. Chances are pretty low.

[00:06:02]We're talking about a 15% chance generally for inland mountains into the San Bernardino High Desert. Along with that, there's a marginal chance for some isolated thunderstorms in those areas.

[00:06:11]Uh, besides that, brief isolated sprinkles are possible elsewhere. Uh but they'll be like it'll be like a couple seconds of a couple drops. You probably won't even have to use your windshield wiper kind of thing. So uh very little impact on those. Um here's the areas we're looking at, you know, 15 to 20% chances for those inland mountains. This is Thursday afternoon into the early evening and then Friday afternoon in the early evening. You can see chances have shifted up north a little bit including into the high desert there. Um, [clears throat] and these these areas are again where we're we're seeing about a 5% chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two.

[00:06:50]Hi, Surf. So, um, now Hurricane Fausto is not going to have any direct impacts on this area, but it is going to be sending some fairly large swell our way.

[00:07:01]Uh, we're talking four to five feet at 13 to 14 seconds uh, moving in Thursday and then lingering through the front part of the weekend. uh gradually decreasing Sunday into early next week. Uh this will lead to breaking waves four to seven feet, peak sets to eight feet uh especially for those south to southwest facing beaches. That's generally going to be North County, Carl'sbad, northwards into Orange County, plus a few select beaches in San Diego County. Um for all beaches or almost all beaches, we're looking at strong dangerous rip currents and long shore currents, especially for those western facing beaches down in San Diego County. Um, and we're looking at increased beach visitation this weekend with all that heat. So, um, we're asking people to uh to keep an eye on every uh on each other, make sure to know what to do if they're stuck in a rip current.

[00:07:52]You know, don't try and get in the water if the surf is looking large.

[00:07:57]All right. So, to summarize everything we just talked about, uh, temperatures increasing starting Wednesday, especially Thursday, and then peaking over the weekend, uh, gradually decreasing through next week, uh, to more of sort of average July getting into August warmth. Um, high temperatures are going to be above average, but low temperatures are going to be well above average due to high humidity. Um, and there is a slight chance for showers over the mountains, high desert Thursday, Friday, again in the afternoon, early evening. We can't rule out an isolated storm or two, but it's unlikely. Around a 5% chance. And then we're looking at elevated surf and strong rip currents through this week, peaking Thursday through Saturday about 4 to 7 feet. Max sets to 8 ft.