Colorado Snow Storm + Severe Weather Threat

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Yeah, it looks like the uh hurricane's doing pretty good over Philadelphia.

[00:00:05]>> I hope they grind them into a bloody pulp.

[00:00:09]So, I grew up in Pittsburgh and our arch nemesis when it comes to any sports, the best rivalry in hockey is the Philadelphia Flyers. And if you know, you know. It's one of those. So, I'll be watching the uh Flyers and the Canes.

[00:00:24]Hopefully, the Canes take them out.

[00:00:27]two nothing lead for Carolina. And uh it was on at the gym last night when I was >> at the gym doing gym stuff and uh >> it was two to one Philly and then I think Caroline ended up winning three to two or whatever. But >> right, >> Caroline got a good They got a good team this year.

[00:00:47]>> Yeah. Never know. Might win the Stanley Cup. We shall see.

[00:00:51]>> Exactly.

[00:00:52]>> So, uh a little warmer today here.

[00:00:55]Sunshine is out. It was still 53 for a low this morning.

[00:00:59]>> Wow.

[00:01:00]>> Just not a um not a big uh fan. I'm getting a text from Matt, by the way, saying that the Nest Cam is running. I think I got the Nest going. So, let's check real quick as part of our cold open. And I should tell Matt to watch the show.

[00:01:17]>> Um >> so, yeah, they're expecting some big snow in Colorado. We do have a camera in Matt's place.

[00:01:24]>> And let's see if he got it running again. Was he successful?

[00:01:29]>> Um, yes. Very nice. It's just a little crooked. So, I will let him know. So, we'll do that real quick.

[00:01:37]>> Yeah, it looks like they've already got snow falling this morning, but it's a little crooked.

[00:01:45]You should watch the show today.

[00:01:49]Speaking of the show, let's roll the opening and we'll do a show.

[00:01:53]>> See you on the other side.

[00:02:37]Heat. Heat.

[00:02:51]Heat.

[00:02:57]Heat.

[00:03:17]Heat. Heat.

[00:03:41]Howdy. Howdy. Howdy.

[00:03:43]>> Morning.

[00:03:43]>> All right. Tuesday now. Fifth day of May. All the Star Wars stuff. We're done with that. All right. It's May 5th.

[00:03:51]>> It's being replaced by tequila.

[00:03:53]>> Yeah, there you go. and uh Cinco de Mayo and Taco Tuesday on the same day. Look out.

[00:03:59]>> Uh but yeah, talking weather now for Tuesday the 5th of May 2026. Good to have you along with us everybody.

[00:04:06]Appreciate it. That's CJ down in the Sarasota area of Florida.

[00:04:10]>> How do you like your new abode? It looks like it's coming along.

[00:04:13]>> It is. It's coming along. Getting everything kind of together here. You know, it's nice to have an office space, dedicated space, especially in the future for recording some videos, etc. >> That's right. That's right. Well, we um might as well just jump right in and show you what we got. Make sure I got everything. Uh let's see. We got that. I want to make sure I get everything right for the the screen share. So, I click that and then I click that.

[00:04:39]>> Yep.

[00:04:41]>> You got it.

[00:04:41]>> Weird, though. You're tiny there.

[00:04:43]Anyway, all right. So, we'll go to the old screen share. Let's talk topics. All right. Big time Colorado snow.

[00:04:52]>> Yeah.

[00:04:52]>> Just heard from Matt. He was firing up the cam at his place in Parker.

[00:04:57]>> Um, you have been there and uh >> we had chilies that evening with Matt and then we >> drove 15 hours the next day for some weather. That's part of the >> the intro. That supercell down there in >> what city was that in Texas again? I keep forgetting.

[00:05:14]>> Brady.

[00:05:15]>> Brady. Yes.

[00:05:17]>> Brady, Texas. Gosh, that was a long drive.

[00:05:20]>> It was very long drive. Never again.

[00:05:24]>> Uh, speaking of severe weather, it is back for the next couple of days and we'll take a look at that. actually CJ a pretty decent risk of some strong tornadoes um >> overall especially in Arkansas >> and we'll talk about that. Hurricane season's coming. Got some prep tips for you uh in case we forgot what hurricanes are all about because we had none affecting the United States last year.

[00:05:49]Uh and with this huge El Nino coming, there's going to be a lot of talk about a down hurricane season, but down does not mean out. The same zero. So, just, you know, a few hurricane season prep tips, especially people that just moved into a hurricane prone area. We'll give you a few pieces of advice. And I've got a good one for Tech Tuesday today, CJ.

[00:06:13]You're going to like it.

[00:06:14]>> It's from our friend James Pettis.

[00:06:16]Something that he put together >> with his tech.

[00:06:20]>> All right. So, uh, of course, same old, same old. We're back to Rio Grand Village >> and Peter Sinks. computer sinks and and I'm so bored with this that I'm not even gonna show the Google part.

[00:06:35]>> Well, it looks like we found our uh our next place to do the show from.

[00:06:40]>> Yeah, a good chance.

[00:06:42]>> Just nuts, man.

[00:06:44]>> I think there's a good So, when we start season two in December, >> right, >> first. Um, by the way, I think this is our sixth month of doing the show.

[00:06:53]>> It is. And I got to figure out what I'm going to do with it over the summer because uh we're gonna definitely do it.

[00:06:59]I don't know if it's going to be daily because just >> right. Yeah.

[00:07:02]>> I got hurricane outlooks to do daily. So anyway, the official season 2, we'll call it, begins on December 1st. And in our second season, we're going to keep a log of the highs and lows daily. And whichever location has the most of each, we're going to do the show there in season 3 at some point. That's that's the plan. So yeah, uh probably going to be Rio Grand Village and Peter Sinks, Utah. Wish us luck. We'll see though.

[00:07:35]Anyways, 15° for the national low temperature in Peter Sinks, Utah. A natural bowl that's uh you know, meadows and whatever up there. And there's some cold air hanging around and >> right >> 15 degrees. There you go. 102 though down at Rio Grand Village. Um and uh the pattern is just goofy right now. It's chilly to nice in the east, but as I'm going to show you in a little bit, you're going to get toasty down your way, CJ.

[00:08:04]>> Oh, yeah. Furnace is kicking on in Florida, folks. Uh this week, >> as we get through the week, it's going to start heating up in a big way. Um not that we're not used to that, but it's going to be a little ridiculous for early May.

[00:08:18]>> Well, this graphic and the 15 and the 102 brings me to my next tweet here, the next tab, which is a tweet. This is so funny.

[00:08:27]It's got two settings, Antarctica and Bahamas. Engine gonna rattle like a 97 Civic, but it ain't going to fail. You can't even hear the TV when it's on. The greatest air conditioner >> of all time.

[00:08:40]>> Oh, yeah. When >> there are hotel rooms that I have stayed in >> where when the uh the room service people came in, the attendants, I guarantee you >> there was frost on the walls.

[00:08:54]>> Yep.

[00:08:57]And then >> even when we get to uh winter and I got to crank the heat. Actually, I don't put it on that hot because I just I got to have it cold. That's just me, >> right?

[00:09:07]>> Um but I thought this was funny. And it's somewhat weather weather related, so it made it into today's >> uh lineup. All right.

[00:09:16]>> All right. So, let's take a look at the lower 48. Not much action except for out here in the Rockies and vicinity.

[00:09:25]>> Look at this though. Some of these uh >> uh freeze watch deal uh in the plains east of the Rockies and out into parts of uh Texas panhandle, Oklahoma, western Kansas, southeast southwest Nebraska.

[00:09:41]Chilly out this way. Nice trough sitting out there. and winter storm now brewing for an area that saw very little snow until now. So just a goofy weird pattern. Uh let's click on this. We'll get some details. Um Rocky Mountain National Park, they're going to get some serious snow. This is some of the graphics.

[00:10:04]>> Um 12 or 19 to 29, 13 to 23, Estus Park, Boulder 6 to 10. And then as you go out east out towards what is that? Ray.

[00:10:15]>> W R A Y.

[00:10:17]>> Yep.

[00:10:18]>> Up to a tenth of or zero to one inch. My eyes are starting to see some of this.

[00:10:23]>> Um, but this is good. You need it in the Rockies. It's a little too late, but hey, it's better than nothing, >> right? Better late than never.

[00:10:31]>> Absolutely. I 25 corridor. Uh, going to be kind of treacherous. You got a lot of truckers. You and I have done that drive. Yes. from the southern border to the northern border. And uh you know, just a reminder that yes, there is winter even in May sometimes out this way. And uh the forecast confidence is pretty high overall.

[00:10:53]>> Um prepare for damaged trees and power lines.

[00:10:57]>> Um Matt was telling me that on the concrete and grassy areas, there's definitely going to be a bifurcation.

[00:11:03]In other words, Parker, for example, you're probably going to have a lot of wet, slushy snow on the grass, but not much on the sidewalk streets.

[00:11:12]>> But up in the Rockies high up, six, 7,000 feet and beyond. And they got a bunch of 14ers out there.

[00:11:19]>> This is going to drop a couple of feet, maybe three feet of snow in some of the more favored spots.

[00:11:25]>> It's going to lead to some very pretty photos, though, out of the Denver area.

[00:11:29]Once this passes, you'll be able to get those beautiful snow snow covered peaks up there in the Rockies. It It's going to be beautiful.

[00:11:38]>> And some stats for you from our friend Ben Null. It's been 23 years.

[00:11:42]>> Reminds me of that Titanic with the the old version of Rose when she's like, "It's been 84 years.

[00:11:51]>> Been 23." It just those things will forever live in our memories. Mhm.

[00:11:56]>> 23 years since Denver last snow last saw snow uh of 6 in in May. That streak could soon end. These highresolution rapid refetch model forecast use dynamic snow liquid ratios that account for how wet the snow will be. Fall Mountain 37 in. Let's go. Uh Fort Collins, you know, eight, Denver 7 and a half. Colorado Springs about six. These are some of the graphics and whatnot that uh Ben has cranked out.

[00:12:27]>> So, this is actually very, very good to see. We've talked about this before.

[00:12:32]>> Um, probably a little too late to resurrect any ski resorts that close down for the year. I don't know how all that works out there, if they're still cranking, if they're not, whatever.

[00:12:40]>> But this is good for the overall watershed. And this filters down when it melts into the Colorado River basin, and that helps northern Arizona. Uh, so this is a good thing. So, just be careful out there if you're traveling, especially our truckers. We love the truckers. Got to get our >> from point A to point B and they got enough with dealing with low-flying aircraft and >> har.

[00:13:07]Yeah, you got to be careful up there along the I25 corridor. Just pay attention.

[00:13:12]>> And in fact, some of the um guidance here, I don't think that's quite into the extreme. I'm trying to catch my gradient. So that's minor and then moderate and major. So no extreme which is good. But CJ, this is through that uh I25 just west of it going into >> Yeah, especially into those foothills.

[00:13:35]You got that ups slope flow on the north side of this system that's really going to ring out whatever moisture is there.

[00:13:41]So, you're going to see, ironically, the higher snow totals on the leeward side of the mountains rather than the windward side where you'd typically expect it.

[00:13:50]>> You're right. And I've I've traveled this last year. I went up to see my friend Taylor >> um who lives in the what's like near Boulder somewhere up in this area, >> right?

[00:14:01]>> Uh somewhere near I can't remember the exact town, >> but yeah.

[00:14:03]>> Um but just a beautiful stretch up here.

[00:14:06]I went west of the interstate, >> had dinner with him and his family last spring talking hail and tornadoes >> and off in the distance those beautiful mountains.

[00:14:15]>> Going to be a gorgeous site when this is all said and done. But it's been a while. 23 years.

[00:14:21]>> So, let's do the math. 26 minus 23 would have been >> three, >> right? So, I'm trying. You know where I'm going with this. Any analoges that we can probably not. It's probably just random. Yeah, >> but 03 we did have a pretty big tornado outbreak around this time in 2003.

[00:14:42]>> I saw that on Twitter. Uh somebody was talking about it.

[00:14:46]>> I believe more was also hit in 2003 >> by an F4 if I'm if my memory serves, >> but it was around this time and right now >> it's kind of dead out there, >> right?

[00:14:58]>> Probably not much to glean from >> comparing the past years with snow and whatever. This is just one of those random storms and it is certainly interesting. This is a cool graphic by the way, National Weather Service, Boulder. So, you have um like your snow elevation, >> right?

[00:15:16]>> And a lot of this is what we look at in severe weather literally >> like the snow line and >> right >> the lapse rates and lifted condensation level and all that stuff. You can literally see this in action in the mountains. Yep.

[00:15:33]>> And I remember when I lived in Vegas, you would look out at the Spring Mountains and they would have snow, >> right, >> down in the valley, rain. And >> Charleston was what is it like 8900 feet or something like that, >> right? 8600.

[00:15:50]>> Um, and it was just so neat to be able to see that. And the Rockies, you got some 14ers, >> you know, out there. None on this particular graphic, but this shows you Colorado Springs is at 6,000 feet. So, a little over a mile, >> right?

[00:16:03]>> In a little higher up, 73 43 feet, 7 to 12 in. Denver 5280 right at a mile uh 3 to 7. So, Cheyenne 7 to 14 again 6 to uh 6,000 ft or so. Then uh some of these other places, Golden Colorado, 5 to 10, um 11,000 ft of the Eisenhower tunnel.

[00:16:28]>> Wow.

[00:16:28]>> And obviously not, you know, nobody's going up to the 14,000 foot peaks during these things listed.

[00:16:34]>> Maybe Phil Clotsbach, he he typically climbs those, >> but this is Highway 285 from south to north. That's a US highway if you didn't know. That's what that icon is.

[00:16:44]>> This is just fascinating to me. And >> I really like that they put these together because it really gives you an idea of Colorado's terrain. You know, a lot of people think of Colorado, oh, it's all mountains. It really isn't.

[00:16:56]Especially eastern Colorado. You know, that eastern third of the state is just high plains. And this really gives you that perspective. Yes.

[00:17:04]>> That elevation is everything when you're dealing with, especially later in the spring season, >> different, you know, outcomes when it comes to snow or just weather in general. Your elevation changes everything.

[00:17:18]>> This also reminds me of that 80s game that we talked about a few weeks ago when the Artemis thing was a big to-do >> of Lunar Lander. And I'll try to draw my little Lunar Lander guy in here. There he is.

[00:17:31]>> Yeah.

[00:17:31]>> And it's got the thrusters. You got to guide him down right there.

[00:17:38]>> Yep.

[00:17:39]>> That's funny. Yeah, it does. It gives you that kind of vibe. But I love these crosssections like this where they're showing you the changes in elevation.

[00:17:48]And in this case, you know, up there, you know, we're looking at the 285 corridor going south to north and then on this one on US 36 >> heading west to east. I really like this. So to the folks at NWS Boulder, Bravo. I love it. I love seeing graphics like this, especially for folks like for me who, you know, I I've been to Colorado many times. I've been to Colorado and but I'm not as familiar with the terrain and the topography. This really helps to kind of visualize that.

[00:18:18]>> Yeah, really cool. Out at Cope 4, 400 ft.

[00:18:22]>> Cope with it, folks. One to four inches and then you have your last chance before you get to Denver there at 3 to five Hardy Har. But really, really neat stuff here. And just going back through y >> you get the elevations and you really start jacking it up there.

[00:18:37]>> Pretty neat. I like this. Way to go. And the interstate system on here. This is just a great set of graphics.

[00:18:44]>> Yep.

[00:18:44]>> For people >> usable.

[00:18:46]>> Yeah. And it's not overwhelming and it's not talking above you and so forth.

[00:18:51]>> Oh, >> so tremendous communication tool from our friends at the National Weather Service. Boulder. Well done. And I like this. Well, wasn't expecting this much snow. Dang.

[00:19:02]>> Right.

[00:19:02]>> And Taylor says, "Uh, I love how these maps are done." Absolutely. Um, no one cares. Talk about atmospheric aerosol injecting. Nope.

[00:19:14]>> There's always one of those, isn't there?

[00:19:17]>> So, we have cams out this way.

[00:19:20]>> And, uh, this is what it looks like currently >> in Black Forest, um, which is near Colorado Springs, right?

[00:19:28]>> Not a lot happening there. Now that, um, Matt has the Parker cam going, I'll scroll through our Where Park? There's Parker. Let's see if we can get Parker to pull up. Hey, he fixed it. Thank you, Matt. Awesome. That's a view from Matt's place in uh Parker. And it's a nice low angle shot. He and I talked about this yesterday. It'll be good for showing the accumulation on the grass and whatnot.

[00:19:55]Our friends at Fox Weather will be showing this from time to time. You know what? I bet if I scroll here, we can watch Matt setting it up. Yep.

[00:20:04]That's funny. Maybe we get a maybe we get a shot of a wild Matt in his >> pajamas. So, uh you have here in Centennial, Mark, just kind of looking at the uh temperatures and stuff using uh radar scope and the different station plots. Right now at Denver International, it's 35 um with a northwest wind or northeast wind, sorry.

[00:20:25]And then over at I'm guessing this is some kind of airport near Centennial, it's 36 over 34. So, you know, we're getting down to that freezing level, but if you go just north of the city into areas like Fort Collins up towards Cheyenne and Fort Morgan, they're already starting to see snow on the radar there. So, it wouldn't surprise me as that continues to work its way down as that cold air filters in, um, you're going to start seeing some more, you know, snow type of deal there. So, one thing you can watch when you're looking for snow, it's not always perfect, but look at the due point, >> right?

[00:21:04]>> And in this case, the due point of the temperature are the same.

[00:21:07]>> Mhm.

[00:21:08]>> And that means that that explains the fog part.

[00:21:12]>> Yeah.

[00:21:13]>> Um, but if the due point were much lower, let's say it was like 25 and the temperature were 33, then you would expect this temperature to fall more >> because as preip falls, it evaporates.

[00:21:26]And we call that evaporative cooling.

[00:21:28]And eventually we get the due point up.

[00:21:30]But there's not much room for the air to cool much more without more cold air coming in, >> right?

[00:21:36]>> You know, to to seed it, so to speak. So this will be interesting to see a uh a wet snow slushy. That's why the problems with trees power lines could be a thing.

[00:21:47]>> Um and then here's one. You know, CJ, when a guy in Orlando is talking about Colorado >> that this is a big deal. Of course, this is >> great insight there, Noah.

[00:21:58]>> Yep. Uh very real chance Denver's biggest snowstorm the entire winter.

[00:22:04]>> Um even though winter is gone both meteorologically and calendarly, whatever, but I know what he means. Um may come Tuesday night into Wednesday in May. A lot of the accumulation likely on grassy and elevated surfaces around the city, but should get two to four inches even on the roads. A nice late season event at the So Noah must have been typing fast because he's got sky resorts, but he meant ski resort.

[00:22:31]Anyway, into the several thousand. Come on. And now I can't talk. Yes, several thousand feet of snow. It's all over, folks.

[00:22:40]>> Into the several feet range. probably only some delays in and out of DIA Wednesday because they handle it like a boss of course.

[00:22:48]>> They do. Denver, uh, they're built for it, so they know what they're they know what they're getting themselves into with this. Um, I will say though, they're not used to the heavy wet snow, though. They get that beautiful out there.

[00:22:59]>> Yeah.

[00:23:00]>> Get that heart attack snow going. That's a real thing.

[00:23:03]>> To say heart attack snow, that is a real thing. It's what we talk about.

[00:23:08]>> Yeah. I'm going to say that's the higher peaks of the uh western of the eastern front range there.

[00:23:14]>> Well, hopefully this will come to pass >> and we get a bunch of snow up here because I'm headed out there and we all are with a big severe weather expedition in the coming weeks and then I'm taking my daughter and my wife out there and my daughter's friend in mid July. The odds that this hangs on but maybe 40 50 inches at these tall peaks. Maybe there'll be some snow pack when we're out there later on. We'll see. All right. So, we go from this to this.

[00:23:41]Dylan Federico, and I saw that you retweeted it or something.

[00:23:46]>> Hot area of high pressure is forecast to build over Florida later this week.

[00:23:50]Soaring.

[00:23:51]>> Yep.

[00:23:52]>> Heat index easily reaching 95 to 100.

[00:23:54]You ready for it? Your place got air conditioning, CJ?

[00:23:57]>> Oh, yeah. Our air conditioning is blowing nice and cold. Uh, but definitely if you if your car needs that last minute recharge on your AC, do it now.

[00:24:06]It's gonna be toasty this week. Uh but that heat dome, man, we had a similar setup last year if you remember, if you can recall where they we get these heat domes that move out of uh Mexico. They set themselves up here over the eastern Gulf and it's like somebody just turns on the blast furnace and you know, get real hot and toasty, >> which isn't good. I mean, we need the rain. We we need rain. You know, we're at this point.

[00:24:28]>> Watch your rain chances.

[00:24:30]>> Yeah. At this point, I mean, we're going to need at least 14 to 15 inches to bust this drought. And >> you know, we're looking at 16 to 17 up here. I saw somebody talk about that. We had a good soaker this weekend, but we're still about foot and a half below normal.

[00:24:45]>> So these big areas of high pressure, >> literally a large dome of air, just more air sitting over your location, >> right?

[00:24:53]>> And that air sinks, it compresses, it warms up, that helps to squish the cloud cover, and then that compressing air, of course, warms. Your 850 mibar temperatures are warm. Everything's just getting squeezed. And air does have weight.

[00:25:08]>> Yes, it does.

[00:25:09]>> You can feel it. You can feel it on you.

[00:25:11]And uh >> Oh, yeah.

[00:25:13]>> It gets And it's literally a dome of air. Uh heat dome. Good graphic from Dylan who is now, in case you didn't know, working down there at WSVN as a meteorologist. And he's got a terrific view. I showed that yesterday from his condo on the Miami River. Well, >> let's say hello for a little bit to our folks on the chat today. Mr. Morgan, who do we got? Do pregnant weather forecasters have a due point.

[00:25:40]>> I like that. I thought that was funny.

[00:25:43]>> Yes, they do. A do a due day and a due point. In fact, uh, hurricanes have been known to induce labor from time to time and other intense low pressure.

[00:25:53]>> Not a urban legend or a myth. It's a thing.

[00:25:56]Part of it is the pressure and part of it I think is probably this is just Mark's philosophy that you never ask for. I bet part of it is also evolution kicking in.

[00:26:07]>> Yeah.

[00:26:07]>> Something big is coming close enough to due date. Let's get this baby out so mama can be ready for whatever this crazy weather thing is coming. Just makes sense, >> right? And I know that before Hurricane Andrew, they had a lot of pregnant women were ordered to go to the hospital down in Miami.

[00:26:23]>> Stan Goldenberg.

[00:26:25]Yep. And they uh you know, they eventually had their had their babies there down in Miami during the storm. Uh you know, I'm sure that the stress just the mental stress alone is a lot on uh women when they're going through that. I >> me and my fiance both we have her we have our birthdays in the heart of hurricane season. Mine is August 23rd.

[00:26:48]Hers is September 19th, just either side of the climatological peak. So, we're hoping that once we have children that they will not be born in that two week period that they're maybe February or March rather than >> somebody said I can't scroll on the >> the comments, but somebody said, "How is Jack Torrance gonna open the Overlook Hotel now?"

[00:27:10]>> I saw that. I saw that. That's funny.

[00:27:16]>> If you're too young to understand that, I'm sorry.

[00:27:19]>> Your dad >> red rum. Anyway, >> well, good to see everybody on the chat.

[00:27:26]Uh, let's keep going and see what we got next on today's lineup.

[00:27:31]>> Uh, there we are. Shining. Good movie.

[00:27:34]Good movie. Um, The Overlook. So, severe weather threat. It is back. And this is Mark's graphic from Photoshop. As you can tell, >> I didn't run it.

[00:27:44]>> I like it. It looks really good.

[00:27:46]>> I thought it it balanced out well. I was happy with it. Did you use the same color yellow >> as this?

[00:27:54]>> It looks like it almost at least from my from my end.

[00:27:58]>> I did not.

[00:27:59]>> Well, it looks good.

[00:28:01]>> Right. You can use the teardropper and sample >> I did not do that.

[00:28:05]>> But I like it. It looks good.

[00:28:06]>> I've done that before. I didn't do that this time. That's good. You know, graphic design when you know you can spot stuff like that. You can grab that teardropper and >> have it.

[00:28:15]>> But yeah, uh severe weather's back today. And for that, we'll turn it over to CJ for a few minutes.

[00:28:21]>> Yeah, you know, uh, over the next couple of days, we're in a pattern right now that isn't really conducive for severe weather, but today we actually do have a decent threat down there. And this is going to reach from portions of the metroplex up into uh the bootill of Missouri. Again, the same areas in the jungles east of 35 that are really under the gun again for this.

[00:28:40]>> We know it now. We know that area. At least we have experience.

[00:28:44]>> We do. We do. Um, and Mark, you know, the biggest threat today, I think, is going to be the the hail and the uh damaging winds, but there is a pretty decent chance there for some significant tornadoes, especially this afternoon.

[00:28:57]The kinematics, the the setup with the, you know, the way the windfields are oriented today and the shear, excuse me, let's talk. I like that you said that.

[00:29:06]Okay, we are talking weather by the way, so let's do it.

[00:29:10]>> So, you have thermodynamics and kinematics. They are not the same thing.

[00:29:15]I know you're not uh a professor of physics or anything but you do know enough about it. Explain please sir.

[00:29:22]>> So thermodynamics those are that's your cape that's your instability right and that all you know thermo meaning heat dynamics >> the energy part right.

[00:29:30]>> Yeah. So that's the actual energy the physical energy that the sun's putting into our atmosphere by heating the ground and that difference in temperature as you go up in height.

[00:29:39]Right now we're talking kinematics. So you're talking the actual act of kinematic energy and in the atmosphere that is done via >> has a piece of kinetic in it.

[00:29:48]>> It does. It does.

[00:29:50]>> Sounds like kinetic energy.

[00:29:53]>> It does. It does. So in this case, we're going to have a lot better uh sheer and kinematic environment than we will a thermodynamic environment. But as any of us that live here in Dixie Alley will tell you, you don't most of our events are uh high sheer low cape. And what does that mean? It means that the wind shear in the atmosphere is much stronger than the can than the thermodynamic environment. So while your instability isn't that high, your windshare can actually overcome that.

[00:30:25]>> In this case, that's a possibility. I was reading through earlier just to kind of get an idea of what they're talking about. I mean, they're talking about, you know, a very supportive environment of supercells this evening, even though they may grow up scale later, but I mean, you're talking bulk shear around 60 knots. Um, as well as, you know, that then they go into the potential for the large hail.

[00:30:48]Um, I thought I saw something on here on the potential hicity values, but I guess not. But your cape's only going to be about 1,500 to 2,000 within the warm sector this afternoon. With that being enough, I mean, I think it's definitely possible. So, we're going to wa wait and see. There is a chance that they upgrade this. I I don't think they're going to.

[00:31:09]I think that the SPC will hold on to this slight risk. I think that that you know that 5% or is that Yeah, that's five% >> one >> with that SIG one hatching. I mean, that you you know, you have the potential for maybe a couple EF2 plus tornadoes. Um, >> and then Memphis, Little Rock, North Little Rock, and we had lunch in Little Rock. We know the town now.

[00:31:30]>> Downtown Little Rock. Yep.

[00:31:32]>> And Conway.

[00:31:33]>> So, just be aware. And what's the timing on this? Probably the usual late afternoon into the evening.

[00:31:39]>> Yes. Late afternoon into the evening.

[00:31:41]But again, these storms are expected to grow up scales or cluster. And again, I also want to point out, you know, you have that marginal risk up in the northeast for portions of Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and into Maine. So, >> tornado threat up there.

[00:31:55]>> Probability, I should say. threat probability not they are somewhat similar but you get the idea 2% is not nothing >> nope >> so just pay attention I want to take a look real quick we're just let's go over here lose this for a second >> I want to look at the her I know it's not the just just give us an idea you know uh for let's do the 12Z and let's go down here to the south central and this is the area that we're talking about Arkansas and vicinity from the metroplex north and Let's see what our old high resolution model kicks out. There's one.

[00:32:31]>> Yeah, >> about 23Z. One super. That's definitely a supercell that's printing out. Look at that.

[00:32:36]>> Mhm.

[00:32:37]>> It's moving slightly south of east.

[00:32:40]>> It's a weird dynamic today. Um and then you get some more that are going to fire up almost like along a dry line would be my you know sunset.

[00:32:50]>> Yes. So we will have time too.

[00:32:53]>> Yeah. Interesting.

[00:32:56]Well, this this is to me this is concerning because the the her is cranking them out. Whereas the other day when we were sitting over here, >> the models were just like it was a no-show.

[00:33:09]>> Y >> except when the front was coming, you know, all in the open warm sector, it was we were very anemic.

[00:33:14]>> I think seeing these getting cranked out on the 12Z of the day that it's going to happen, I that's telling, >> right? you know, and uh you can even see a little bit of a purple in here, some hail signature, >> whatever. I'm just, you know, anyway, so models does show it happening, >> right? And you know, uh moving into day two, the reason for this and they kind of talk about this that this trough is actually positively tilted. And as we've learned, you know, in in the science throughout the years, these positive tilt troughs, while they do produce severe weather events, they're normally not as potent as a negatively negatively tilted trough. And what is that? What's the difference there? All it is is the difference in the orientation of the axis. So for a positive tilt trough, it's typically more oriented from a northwest to southeast, I believe, is the dynamic there, rather than um northeast to southwest for your negative tilt. Um and whatever for whatever reason, the negative tilts usually produce pretty strong um severe weather events. Not that positive tilts can't.

[00:34:22]Um it's just less common. Um, and right now, I mean, for tomorrow, it's going to be more of the same, but there is a question whether or not the thermos even get there because a lot of the storm time is going to be later, especially into the southern Appalachian Mountains.

[00:34:38]But again, same general vicinity. You're looking at the same general areas, that Arlamus region there, um, extreme southeastern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western portions of Mississippi. So again, tomorrow folks, you want to be weather aware. Again, tomorrow your primary threats are going to be wind, hail, and then the potential for maybe an isolated tornado that could be strong. Um, just given the kinematic environment. So something we need to keep an eye on for sure, but it's really interesting that this is what we're seeing now, whereas these types of events are typically in the early seasons. So >> yeah, not in this weird pattern we're in.

[00:35:19]coolish. Maybe everything's delayed.

[00:35:22]Maybe June will be the new May this year. We'll see.

[00:35:25]>> We will see. And then >> Yep. And then as we move into day three, again, that just moves off to the east around your your neck of the woods, Mark, you'll be under a marginal. Uh this includes portions of the Carolas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western parts of the panhandle of my great state of Florida. But again, not really. Most of this is going to be confined to the I 10 corridor north uh for the peninsula. We miss out on it unfortunately. So, >> well, I'm going to read from forecaster Liz Lightman the fairly short paragraph that goes out to eight days and this is basically we're all still in timeout after this. The mean upper troughing will persist persist east of the Rockies for the day 4 through 8 period. So that's very important that the mean upper trough, the average upper troughing is going to persist east of the Rockies right there. Done.

[00:36:25]Just not going to get severe weather in the plains when you have that. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture except periodically across the southern plains and the southeast and Gulf Coast states. She goes on to write, "Severe potential is expected to be low. On Friday, as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold front or passage offshore of the Gulf and Atlantic coast on day five, which is Saturday, lee troughing will allow for increasing southsoutheasterly low level flow across the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south central US, but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent by day 67, Sunday, Monday. Another cold front is forecast across much of the US east of the Rockies. And again, east of the Rockies just that's just not going to do it generally as this front impinges upon a moist air mass across the southern plains into the southeast and mid-Atlantic.

[00:37:30]some severe potential could develop.

[00:37:33]However, mid to upper level uh flow is not forecast to be overly strong and so the medium range guidance does vary quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing resulting in low predictability.

[00:37:47]Bottom line, very few tornadoes are going to be happening over the next eight days, >> right? stands the one we just talked about uh potentially the next couple of days today, tomorrow in uh parts of the south and GF coast areas just north of the I10 corridor what what we just uh discussed.

[00:38:10]But after this time frame, maybe the pattern will change. We'll see. This is what it looks like in that upper pattern. And so there's your positively tilted trough. Basically, it leans this way. it's positive. When they're negative, they lean that way. So, that's how to interpret that. And uh going through the pattern over the next two weeks, I mean, CJ, this is what I was telling you about. Look at that right there. Just ridiculous northwesterly flow over the plains. That's generally not going to do it. Later in June, that helps for high plain stuff.

[00:38:47]>> But look at this. Look at the way this ridge starts to bulge out here.

[00:38:50]>> Yeah. It's just very It's very weird.

[00:38:53]um chilly >> pattern for this time of year.

[00:38:57]>> Yuck. Yuck. I don't like it. Um >> and again, I mean, we we can sometimes see severe weather with those northwest flow regimes. It's not overly common, and typically it's a it's later in the year, you know, June, July, August in the northern plains. Um, a good uh one that pops out for me from a northerly flow regime. Northwesterly flow is the Planefield F5 in August of 92, >> right?

[00:39:23]>> Was that 91? One of the two >> there's a 90.

[00:39:27]>> Yeah. The early 90s, we'll say just the Planefield F5.

[00:39:31]>> But even way out May.

[00:39:33]>> Yeah. I mean, it's still >> But it's weak.

[00:39:36]>> It's weak. It is weak. Um, and what's interesting about these weaker westerly flow regimes, and you can kind of see it there with that uh, vorticity there over eastern Kansas, this really introduces uncertainty and forecast guidance generally because those different severe weather parameters, those severe weather risks are dictated on the mesoscale level. So to bring that into plain English, we won't know until day of because those little boundaries that's set up from day before day, you know, you know, two days before, it's really dependent. So we won't know. Um, but overall, I mean, look at that. What was that? 40s down in a northern Louisiana.

[00:40:18]Did I see that correctly?

[00:40:20]>> Yeah.

[00:40:20]>> I mean, you're talking 40s for lows or wait, >> these are due points.

[00:40:24]>> Oh, due points. Okay, never mind. still pretty damn low due points for >> comfy for the south. I know fellow southerners aren't going to be complaining, but I mean you look at, you know, you're not getting until the 16th, 17th where you'll finally get that moisture return there over portions of Missouri, etc. >> There's some dry line right there as we get farther out in time. But further out, >> again, it's going to be a wait and see game. I do think that by the end of the month, we'll start um getting back into our typical springtime pattern. And again, you know, it's going to be very interesting to watch what happens with um the June severe weather season. I think we're going to see a really big uptick at the end of the month in June.

[00:41:12]>> More and more people uh starting to pick up on that. And you know, this is the third week of May starting there. And I want to point one thing out hiding off the screen. stupid >> bermita high >> thick. Yep. Exactly.

[00:41:26]>> That's what I look for because that starts to set up the return flow. Now you just need a more active southwesterly flow over the top of it.

[00:41:35]>> And so part of the ingredients are getting reset as we get towards the last third of the month.

[00:41:40]>> Now we have to see if we get some trough action out here over the top of that.

[00:41:45]>> Right. And that'll jump start things toward Memorial Day and beyond, which is when we're heading out with Mississippi State.

[00:41:53]>> Exactly.

[00:41:54]>> That we announced yesterday.

[00:41:56]All right, I want to backtrack just a little bit. I have a very cool thing.

[00:42:00]Our Tech Tuesday, James Pettis, we almost got to meet him.

[00:42:05]We were near his neck of the woods, but just the time allow >> really neat thing that period that we just went through the 23rd through the 29th, including the three days that CJ and I were out there. James put together this neat animation. I wanted to show it to you. Finally got around, he says, to making a loop from the severe weather sequence from April the 23rd. That was last Thursday through the 29th, Tuesday.

[00:42:28]It was a very active stretch. 103 tornado reports, 500 hail, >> plus one more on the damaging wind.

[00:42:37]Along with this, a total of 264 tornado warnings and,18 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued. And here it is animated. Oh, just so freaking awesome.

[00:42:52]That's amazing. That really is great work from James Pettis, ladies and gentlemen. And CJ, you and I were there for some of that. Uh yeah, almost all of it. Um especially towards the latter half, the 23rd and 24th we weren't, but the rest of it we were.

[00:43:07]>> Um and you know, the largest out of these uh is going to be the Enid. That's what this will be. This this sequence will be remembered for the Enid F4 I think is what or EF4 that was uh I don't know if they finally released that or not but last I checked it was preliminarily >> readed an EF4 with a potential and I know they were reviewing it. It is an EF5 candidate um from my understanding.

[00:43:34]So >> I'm going to be watching this. In fact, I'll ask him, you know, if he can send this to us as a like an MP4 or whatever.

[00:43:44]We could use this in a future video.

[00:43:47]>> Yeah.

[00:43:47]>> You know, documentary.

[00:43:48]>> I wonder how he does this because I can tell you I thought about doing stuff like this, but I have zero desire to sit down with Appleotion for 16 hours and try to individually animate each and every one of those polygons. I would probably end up uh bashing my head through the wall. Yeah, I'm guessing he I'm guessing he's got some scripts and other But regardless, this is pretty badass. I'm very >> It is It is so neat. And what I love about it is that it's not cluttered, >> right?

[00:44:17]>> Usually you get these maps and they're just it just looks like something threw up on it, but the way that he has it together here is very well put together.

[00:44:25]Very >> corner. Oh man. I mean, again, just wow.

[00:44:30]>> As some would say, this kid's going places. And if you if you haven't checked out pettisplots.com, please be sure to do so.

[00:44:37]>> Um, you know, we're not sponsored or anything.

[00:44:41]>> Yeah, James is actually one of our patrons, believe it or not. Uh, >> he's a great kid, very wicked smart. Um, in his website, I when I'm looking at sounding data, that's pretty much all I've been using this year. Um, as well as the VWP, the the VAD profilers, the wind profilers from the radar sites.

[00:45:01]just amazing technology he has there that's really easy to utilize and get to, >> you know, dive into. It's pretty cool.

[00:45:08]>> It agreed. Really, really good stuff.

[00:45:11]Um, I've got that tweet bookmarked. I'm going to >> I'm going ask him if he can send me this video. I'd like to just look at it from from an analytical perspective from what we did >> and start trying to figure out some patterns. There's just when you stare at something over and over and over, you start to learn from it. You know, that's what AI does.

[00:45:28]>> Yeah.

[00:45:28]>> Uh, anyway, pretty great. Awesome. Love it. Appreciate that he puts it out there for us to consume at no cost.

[00:45:36]>> Terrific.

[00:45:37]>> All right. Hurricane season is coming and we'll talk more about it in due course. Few people are asking on YouTube, why no hurricane videos as of late?

[00:45:47]>> Because I don't want to saturate. I say saturate. There's just not much to talk about, >> right? And I want to be more on the on the approach of when there's something to say, we will say it, >> right?

[00:46:00]>> And other than that, it's just more noise. There's just there's too much noise out there, >> right?

[00:46:06]>> I don't want to add to that. I know.

[00:46:08]Well, I'll get it from somebody else.

[00:46:09]That's fine.

[00:46:10]>> But when there is something to really talk about, we'll talk about it. All right. Other than that, let's just chill and it'll be okay. So, that being said, >> we are still a few weeks before the start of the Eastpack and the Atlantic seasons. And just a reminder, uh, National Hurricane Preparedness Week, all that stuff full swing >> and understanding the forecast, this was a good one from the hurricane center.

[00:46:36]Um, understanding forecast information, it has gotten more complex. There are more layers. And all that being said, it is upon you now to we can't hold your hand everywhere, okay? Try to teach you, >> guide you, and then you have to do some homework yourself. So relying on the forecast from the National Weather Service and uh the hurricane center obviously know your alerts, right?

[00:47:03]>> Focus on the impact that I didn't get chance to get out and see the hurricane hunters yesterday. They were here in Sarasota and today I believe they're in Mobile.

[00:47:12]>> Mobile, Alabama.

[00:47:14]>> I don't know why I said it like that, but >> I think it felt right.

[00:47:18]>> Sure. It just felt right. But this is really good stuff from the hor's mouths.

[00:47:24]Horses plural mouths, right? It's all of them down there. The different forecasters. The best in the world.

[00:47:30]Extremely helpful stuff. So check it out. Be aware. Um, and you know, share with other weather geeks that you know.

[00:47:38]It's funny. And they're on the YouTubes.

[00:47:41]>> You know, they got it vertical.

[00:47:44]>> They've been doing shorts. It's neat.

[00:47:45]>> Yeah, they got the shorts. The whole bit. Their social media um is just incredible. Um I met their I think she's the PIO. Maria was at the National Tropical Weather Conference doing a stellar job down there. Um it's on you.

[00:48:00]You got to learn. All right. We'll show you the tools. It's up to you to use the tools. And another one here from IBHS and that is the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. And they have a whole bunch of stuff for you as well.

[00:48:15]You can download the hurricane weather ready guide, which is very thorough. And I mean, it's all right here at your fingertips. High-tech cool stuff. Look at that. That's some great web programming. Seriously. Mhm.

[00:48:32]>> You know, and it's just, you know, whether you're a a new renter like CJ or a multi-millionaire homeowner, there is stuff you can do. We call that mitigation, lessening the effects of a disaster over time.

[00:48:48]>> There's something that everybody can do.

[00:48:50]CJ could get a generator. He could do buy some damn flood bags, whatever.

[00:48:55]>> Exactly. He may not have 50 grand to put up some storm shutters yet, but you know, you can do.

[00:49:02]>> According to our management company, these are impact windows. So, I think we're good. I think they do require that on all new uh buildings here. It's part of the building code. But yes, good point there though, Mark. Check with your local NWS office. So, if you live anywhere on the coast here in the southern east United States, you can literally just pull up your local WFO.

[00:49:23]Good example for me is NWS Tampa Bay.

[00:49:26]They've had also local um preparedness camps and such. They did, I think, a webinar online with the other WFOs here in Florida out of Key West, Miami, Jacksonville, Melbourne, and Tallahassee, I think.

[00:49:40]>> Um, you know, to kind of go over these with the uh local population. So, and I'm sure they do that up there. Uh you guys have really good forecast offices up there in Wilmington and Morehead City come to mind. Um, so >> ask them on social media, Facebook, whatever. People, >> they like that. They do. They like that interaction and you're not bothering them. You don't call them up though and tell them you think there's a tornado on radar scope. No, no, no, no, no.

[00:50:04]>> Yeah, don't do that. Please >> definitely ask them because that's been a thing. Hey, I'm new to the area. I want to know more about hurricane this or that or the other. They're they'll be glad to help you. Um, so, um, you know, this year, as if we needed a reminder of the horror show that was 2020. Forgive me, but I need to remind you, we are using that list again.

[00:50:27]>> Yeah, I know, right?

[00:50:28]>> The 2020 list.

[00:50:30]>> I got to get you >> the graphic with all the names. I will have that ready for tomorrow.

[00:50:36]>> Terrific.

[00:50:37]>> Actually go over that for both basics as well.

[00:50:39]>> We'll do that. And you guys remember what was retired from that list? We'll we'll check that out tomorrow. Compare and see who who replaced.

[00:50:47]>> Right. And it will not uh include the Greek names or the Atlantic auxiliary list.

[00:50:53]>> Right. Right now, >> right. And I'm not even sure. I got to think about it if I'm going to print one of my maps this year. They're about $500 to print like a hundred of them. I know it's stupidens because they're such high quality, >> right?

[00:51:08]>> I got to think about I got to do a poll and if I can get enough people that say they want to buy one, because it's not, oh, I don't think I'm gonna make much money. I don't like having 70 of them left over, >> right?

[00:51:20]>> 20, 30 people buy one, I still have 70.

[00:51:22]It's just the waste, >> right?

[00:51:24]>> Um, but I was just thinking about that because I got to put the list of names on the tracking map if I do indeed print one for this year. All right, so I think we're about done for today. uh you guys stay safe and aware out there in the areas that we covered in terms of severe weather. And if you're in Colorado, Matt Clemens, we're talking to you and other people we know out there, enjoy the snow. I'm jealous. Um but uh it's spring. It's time to get on with it and enjoy the sunshine and all the other stuff that comes with that. But out of Colorado and Wyoming, enjoy that snow.

[00:51:58]You need it. It's a good thing. Soak it all in. And and it's not liquid sunshine. I guess it's frozen. It's dendritic sunshine. There you go.

[00:52:06]>> Right. Dendritic. I like that.

[00:52:08]>> Nice. All right, you guys have a good rest of your Tuesday. We'll be back with you tomorrow. I'm Mark.

[00:52:15]This has been Talking Weather. We'll do it again tomorrow.

[00:52:17]>> Yes, sir.

[00:52:18]>> Bye.

[00:52:33]Heat. Hey, Heat.