Statcast’s failure reminds us that data is merely a fallible map, not the territory of human excellence. Murakami didn’t just hit a home run; he exposed the limitations of the digital lens we use to quantify the game.
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We Just Saw Munetaka Murakami Hit a Home Run So Ridiculous It Broke StatCastAdded:
The first season of Munitaka Murkami's career has pretty much gone exactly as expected so far with him blasting six homers in his first 20 games with 28 strikeouts, 17 walks, a 200 average, and an 838 OPS. But among the various highlights he's registered so far, the most impressive arguably came yesterday when he managed to not only crush his first career grand slam, but to do so with a swing so powerful that it may have outright broke Statcast momentarily. The Japanese lefty was at the plate in a then 5-1 game in the seventh inning with the bases juiced working the count full versus Elvis Alvarado who was chucking near 100 miles per hour on average a VO range that many scouts were concerned that Murakami would have little chance of touching. It was then on the 3-2 he got a 98 mph fastball right down the middle and he absolutely did not miss it crushing it at 114.1 mph to center field at a launch angle of 33° allowing it to fully clear the batter's eye out there. Now, just from the eye test, I'm sure many would assume this was a 460 ft plus shot, right? To clear the batter's eye when the distance to even get beyond the fence is 404, it had to be. But that's not what Statcast said with its estimated distance coming out to 431.
Shout out, by the way, to Baseball World on Twitter, who was the first one I saw that pointed out the peculiarity of this. So, I did some digging to see if this may have been a misread, and I found some interesting stuff. First off, the average distance of a home run hit between 32 and 33° with an exit velocity of between 113 and 115 mph since Dadcast began tracking batted balls back in 2015 is 444 ft. This means that somehow Mooney's was 13 ft shorter than this despite the fact that his exit vo was half a mile an hour harder. But that could be circumstantial based on a variety of things. No, the real piece of evidence I think that's a bit more damning that this may have been a misread is how similar balls have flown so far at Sutter Health Park. Since the A's began playing there last season, there have been five balls hit out between 30 and 33° and at an exit velocity of between 110 and 115 mph. Of those, the only one that traveled less than 447 ft was Munitakas, with most of them being in excess of 450. Take a look at this shot from Nick Hurts last year that left his bat at 114.6 6 mph at a launch angle of 30°. That also cleared the batter's eye. This one did look a bit further to me, but its estimated distance was 493 ft, the longest of 2025, despite peripherals that really weren't all that much different than Munitaka's. Or at least not substantially. So, how about this Riley Greenshot that apparently went 471 ft despite leaving his bat at over 3 mph softer and at a similar launch angle of 30°. Do I think there's any kind of malice in this potential misread? No, not in the slightest. It's a known factor that Statcast struggles with tracking balls that travel beyond objects on the field. But I did think it was worth pointing out that this blast from Murakami may have indeed traveled quite a bit further than what was estimated. And hey, it also gave me a chance to talk about the emerging White Sock star, who I think could end up having a truly fascinating statline by the time the season concludes. One that rivals Prime Joey Gallow and its extremity.
All right, everybody. If you made it this far, I appreciate you watching. And if you did, consider checking out any of these other videos on your screen right now for other content just like this.
Also, if you ever see anything you'd like to see me detail in the video, feel free to reach out to my email [email protected].
And if I end up using your idea, I'll give you a shout out. Thanks for watching. Tough yesterday.
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