Cold Now, Extreme Heat Next? Europe Faces El Niño Threat

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:07]In just the next few weeks, Europe could shift from cold rain to extreme heat.

[00:00:12]And the thing causing all of this is El Nino rapidly getting stronger. Wow.

[00:00:17]Terrifying indeed. Get ready. Hello everyone and welcome back to today's indepth weather forecast. And right from the start, it has to be said that a lot of people are asking the same question right now. How cold is this cold spell actually going to get? Is this just a typical chilly feeling or a notable cold outbreak for midmay? And more importantly, how long before temperatures warm up again? And there is one signal that meteorologists around the world are watching extremely closely right now. El Nino is returning. But what is even more concerning is this El Nino could be very different for Europe.

[00:00:57]Not just a slightly hotter summer. Well, wow. This is terrifying because what is currently happening across the atmospheric pattern shows that the UK and many surrounding areas are about to enter a noticeably colder than average period, especially compared to the warmer weather many places experienced recently. Before we begin the program, please support us by liking and subscribing to the Mr. Ten channel to stay updated with the latest weather forecasts.

[00:01:30]Get ready.

[00:01:32]And a chilly spell, a mild but prolonged cold spell is developing and will affect many areas over the coming days. Right now, if we look at the large scale weather pattern, we can see a low pressure system operating to our north.

[00:01:47]And this system is playing an extremely important role in pulling cold air from the polar region southward. If we remove the jetream layer and instead display the 850 horsepad temperature layer, meaning the air temperature roughly over 1 km above the ground, we can clearly see one thing. Cold air has already started affecting northern areas.

[00:02:11]Meanwhile, the south is still fairly comfortable at the moment and some places even feel slightly warm during the daytime. But the issue is the boundary is changing very quickly. A cold front is cutting across the country. And this cold front is not only bringing rain, it is also the boundary line between two completely different air masses. South warmer air, north, much colder air. As this cold front gradually weakens through Saturday and Sunday, what is important to note is that the cold air to the north will not disappear. Instead, it will continue pushing farther southward. That is why by early next week, many places will begin to noticeably feel the change.

[00:02:55]Right now, southern areas are still relatively mild, but moving into the weekend and especially early next week, the colder air will become much more widespread. And not just cold in the sense of slightly lower temperatures, but more like persistent cold winds, gray skies, scattered rain, a biting chill during the early mornings and nights. One extremely interesting thing we need to talk about here is the wind direction. If we look at the wind maps over the next several days, we can see that most of the time the winds will be coming from the north or northwest. And this is a critically important detail because in the northern hemisphere, winds rotate counterclockwise around low pressure systems. In other words, low pressure to the north pulls winds from the north down toward the south. And everyone already knows northerly winds are almost always cold winds. They bring air from near the polar regions downward, causing temperatures to drop very quickly. Wow. Terrifying indeed. In the middle of May, many places are about to feel more like early cold spring conditions. And what is even more notable is this cold air mass is not just a brief appearance. It looks likely to persist for several consecutive days.

[00:04:16]As we move into next Tuesday and Wednesday, the northerly flow still remains quite active. That means cold air continues pouring southward. The chilly feeling lingers. Weather conditions remain unsettled. done. Now, let's look at actual temperatures in a few cities. Take Birmingham for example.

[00:04:36]At the moment, temperatures are still relatively close to average. If there is sunshine during the day, it can even feel fairly pleasant. Daytime still feels mild, but from late Saturday into Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop sharply. This is a very noticeable temperature plunge from near or slightly above average to several degrees below average within a short period of time.

[00:05:01]Not only will daytime temperatures fall, overnight temperatures will also become significantly colder. This means colder early mornings, possible light frost in some places, a lingering chill lasting well into the morning hours, especially in southern areas where it had previously been relatively warm. This change will feel even more noticeable to many people. Meanwhile, farther north in places like Storway, the colder air has already arrived there, temperatures in that area have already been below average over recent days. So, next week will not bring a dramatic shock cold event.

[00:05:39]Instead, it will be more like prolonged chill, lots of cloud cover, occasional rain, a constant cold feeling lingering in the background. Nighttime frost may become slightly less likely thanks to increased cloud cover, but overall northern areas will continue remaining below average in temperature. After that, this cold air mass will spread southward across the entire country. If we look at temperature anomaly charts compared to long-term averages, we can clearly see northern areas already colder than average. Southern areas still near or slightly above average for now, but that will not last much longer.

[00:06:19]On Saturday, some southern areas could still reach 22 to 23°.

[00:06:25]Sounds fairly pleasant, right? But at the same time, northern areas remain significantly colder, and the cold front is the dividing line separating these two completely different weather regimes. After that, the colder air continues taking over, spreads nationwide, and lingers into early next week, especially Monday and Tuesday, which will likely be the coldest days. A true a chilly spell in every sense. Not severe winter cold, but the kind of chill that makes you wear your jacket again, feel cold, stepping outside in the morning, deal with gloomy, uncomfortable weather for several days.

[00:07:05]If we look slightly farther ahead into the medium range forecast models, we can see another interesting feature. For much of next week, low pressure continues surrounding the region of our stars. And the positioning of these low pressure systems is extremely important because they continue maintaining northerly or northwesterly air flow. For example, by miday, models show a low pressure area west of Scandinavia. That means winds continue flowing from the north. Some scenarios even shift the low pressure closer towards Scandinavia itself, meaning an even stronger northerly flow. In short, the colder pattern still remains dominant. However, there is one fairly positive signal appearing toward late May, and this is the part giving many people some hope.

[00:07:54]Some models suggest high pressure may begin returning, more settled weather develops, temperatures gradually rise.

[00:08:01]If that happens, we could start seeing more sunshine, less rain, warming temperatures as we move closer towards summer. But for now, that still remains a distant signal. In the short term, cold air remains the main story. Another chart shows very clearly that over roughly the next week, blue colors dominate, representing air flow from the north narc.

[00:08:25]That is why meteorologists believe the colder weather is likely to continue for a while longer. After that period, forecast patterns begin becoming more neutral. That could signal colder northerly winds gradually weakening and weather becoming more stable, but not quite yet. Additionally, when examining the east west pattern, we also notice another interesting trend. A more Atlantic westerly weather regime is gradually strengthening. That means occasional rain systems will continue appearing. Weather remains changeable and long sunny stable stretches are unlikely immediately. Pray this. As for overall temperatures next week, ECMWF models are currently leaning fairly strongly toward temperatures several degrees below average across much of the UK. Not extreme, but enough to make many people say, "Wait, why does miday feel more like early March?" Wow, absolutely terrifying. So, what about rainfall? The good news is rain will occur about, but there are currently no signs of a prolonged severe rainfall event. Most areas are expected to see rainfall near average levels. Coastal regions may receive slightly more rain due to stronger interaction between sea air and colder air masses. Meanwhile, some central regions could end up slightly drier than average. Overall, scattered rain, nothing too extreme, but fairly cold and uncomfortable weather. And for many people, this may actually be welcome news after the prolonged dry spell earlier on. But this will certainly be a notable a chilly spell for midmay. Get ready because your spring jacket will probably need to come back out for at least a few more days.

[00:10:14]And it has to be said right from the beginning. There is one signal that meteorologists around the world are watching extremely closely right now. El Nino is returning. But what is even more concerning is this El Nino could be very different for Europe. Not just a slightly hotter summer. We are talking about the possibility of prolonged extreme heat waves, severe drought, widespread water shortages, impacts on crops, and even heat events dangerous to public health. Wow. Terrifying indeed.

[00:10:47]Get ready because many models are now showing El Nino could have big impacts across Europe. And what concerns experts the most is the very rapid warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. If we look at the sea surface temperature maps right now, we can see a red zone gradually expanding across the eastern Pacific region. That is the classic signal of El Nino. Simply put, when ocean waters in this region warm abnormally, desic, the entire global atmospheric system begins changing along with it. And even though El Nino develops in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts can spread very far all the way to Europe. If we take a cross-section through the ocean and examine the subsurface thermal structure, we can see it even more clearly. A layer of warm water is rapidly developing beneath the surface.

[00:11:40]And this is exactly the fuel that could allow El Nino to continue strengthening over the coming months.

[00:11:47]The important thing is not every El Nino has major impacts on Europe. There have been years when El Nino developed, but Europe did not change very much.

[00:11:58]However, this time could be different.

[00:12:01]Models are currently showing increasing probabilities of a strong El Nino or even a very strong El Nino. And it is these stronger Elino events that typically produce larger global impacts from May through June, July, and deeper into late summer and early autumn. The probability of El Nino continuing to strengthen keeps increasing. The darker red zones on the probability charts are now beginning to expand significantly.

[00:12:27]That indicates the chances of El Nino reaching strong intensity are becoming increasingly high. Wow. Terrifying indeed. So, what could this mean for Europe? Let's begin with summer first.

[00:12:40]Normally, summers in Europe are already hot, especially across southern Europe.

[00:12:45]Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, all frequently experience heat waves. But in a strong Elino pattern, the level of heat could become even more extreme. Not just warmer than average, but rather continuously prolonged heat nighttime temperatures struggling to cool down persistent multi-day heat waves. a feeling of heat that never ends.

[00:13:08]And this is the truly frightening part.

[00:13:10]Many heat waves during strong El Nino years do not last just 2 to 3 days. They can instead last for weeks. At that point, at the ground dries out very quickly, humidity levels drop sharply.

[00:13:23]Wildfire risks increase significantly, and power systems, water supplies, and agriculture all come under enormous pressure. Some heat waves could even become life-threatening, especially for the elderly and major urban areas. If El Nino continues strengthening as forecast, then this summer could become extremely notable. Not only because of temperatures, but also because of drought concerns. This is what many experts are truly worried about. El Nino does not directly create drought in Europe. But if Europe begins entering a naturally dry cycle, then a strong El Nino could make the situation much worse. That is the frightening scenario.

[00:14:04]For example, if June and July begin turning drier than average, while El Nino simultaneously reaches strong or very strong intensity, drought conditions could escalate into extreme drought. Wow. Terrifying indeed. That would mean reservoirs dropping rapidly, crops suffering heat stress, increasing wildfire activity, possible water shortages in some areas, and as the land becomes drier, temperatures can rise even more aggressively because lower moisture levels allow the ground to heat up faster. It becomes a very dangerous feedback loop. Drier, hotter, even drier. That is why strong Elino events are always monitored so closely by meteorologists.

[00:14:47]However, not all the news is bad. Some crops actually perform quite well during El Nino conditions. Sunflowers, grapes, olives often adapt better to hotter and drier weather. Meanwhile, corn, potatoes, wheat tend to suffer more negative impacts. So, agricultural effects will vary greatly depending on the region. Now, let's talk about winter. This is also extremely interesting. If El Nino reaches strong intensity by the end of the year, then winter in Europe could split into two very different phases. Early winter, wetter milder than average, but late winter, colder, drier, harder. That is a common pattern during strong El Nino events. And this could create highly unpredictable weather changes across Europe later this year. However, there is one very important thing to remember.

[00:15:40]Right now, we have not fully entered an official El Nino yet. We are still in the transition phase. That is why the short-term 46-day forecast does not yet fully reflect a true El Nino pattern. If we look at the current forecast, many parts of Europe are actually wetter than average. The green and blue areas on the maps show fairly abundant rainfall. Some locations are still seeing significant rain events, and areas receiving more rainfall are often cooler than average as well. That explains why short-term weather patterns do not yet fully resemble the hot and dry El Nino scenario. Long-range models can sometimes become heavily influenced by one or two major short-term rainfall systems. So, we cannot simply look at models and immediately draw conclusions.

[00:16:29]We also need to observe the real atmospheric environment. And right now we are still seeing several strong rain systems across Europe. For example, Azors, Portugal, Spain, southern France are all experiencing notable rainfall events. Some places even face risks of localized heavy rain flooding, flash floods, especially as moisture bands continue pushing inland from the Atlantic Ocean. Rain will continue spreading into France, Switzerland, Austria, Romania, Slovakia, and many other areas over the coming days. Across the Alps, higher elevations could even still see snowfall.

[00:17:08]Wow, snow falling in some higher regions at this time of year. Meanwhile, across Eastern Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Czecha could experience very heavy rainfall events. Some locations could even exceed 100 mm of rain within just a few days.

[00:17:25]That is not a small amount and when combined with snow melt in mountainous areas, river level rises will need to be monitored closely. Additionally, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia could also experience strong thunderstorms and localized heavy showers. Meanwhile, Greece, Turkey will see more of a hit or miss weather pattern, meaning some places get rain while others remain dry.

[00:17:49]After this rain event, many regions may trend drier once again. And that is what meteorologists are watching very carefully. Is this simply a short-term rainy period, or will Europe transition into a prolonged dry cycle under the influence of El Nino afterward? If that happens, this summer could become extremely intense.

[00:18:11]prolonged heat waves, severe drought, pressure on water supplies, above average temperatures across large regions.

[00:18:19]But it is also important to emphasize not every part of Europe will behave the same way. There will always be regional exceptions. Some places may still receive plenty of rainfall. Other areas could face extreme drought. That is what makes forecasting El Nino impacts in Europe so incredibly complicated. To summarize, right now, the Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly. El Nino is developing. The probability of a strong El Nino is increasing and Europe could experience major impacts this coming summer. El Nino could have big impacts across Europe. So, prepare for the possibility of a hotter summer, a a drier summer, and longerlasting heat waves than normal. Thank you for watching today's forecast. Wishing all of you a wonderful weekend ahead. If you found this video helpful, please like, share, and subscribe to the Mr. TN channel so you don't miss the most important weather updates.