Forecast update for Tomorrow's (Tuesday) Severe Threat, Kentucky! 7.20.2026

[00:00:29]Good evening. Welcome into the Weather Now Kentucky channel. Whether you're watching on YouTube or Facebook, tonight we are live for the preparation for Tuesday's strong to severe storms throughout the portions of Kentucky, throughout a lot of Kentucky really. As always, we'll give it I did go live a little bit earlier, so we'll give it two or three minutes before we stop or uh before we go into talking about the storms and, you know, everything of that nature. As you're coming into the video here, if you would not mind, hit the share button at the bottom portion of your screen. If you're over there on Facebook, share this video on your newsfeed, so that way your friends and family can view it. If you're over there on YouTube, just throw a like on it for me, please. Good evening to everybody.

[00:01:04]Kev, hello. Michael, hello. Ally, good evening out of Bowling Green.

[00:01:10]And of course, I don't I don't think YouTube or um I don't think Facebook shared out that we are live because you know, Facebook loves to do that.

[00:01:18]So, give me a second while I share that we're live.

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[00:01:32]Facebook wants me to pay that verification money. It's just not happening. Just not going to pay it.

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[00:01:47]I'm sharing the video out to my own page here because Facebook's just so bad. But yes, we are live both Facebook and YouTube. Thank you, Haley, for sharing.

[00:01:55]Chelsea, hello out of Flemingsburg.

[00:01:57]Again, we'll give it a couple minutes before we get started. You guys know the deal here. You guys know the deal. You know the drill.

[00:02:08]doesn't even show me I'm live on my own page. Facebook is so beyond broken.

[00:02:18]Facebook is so beyond broken. It's because they want me to pay for the verification. I'm not paying the $500 a month for verification on Facebook. I'm just not. Uh Mason, good evening to you out of Nancy, Kentucky. James, hello out of Somerset. Phil, good evening out of Oh, just says good evening, George.

[00:02:32]Hello. Aaron, good evening out of Green County. Bryson, hello out of Manchester.

[00:02:36]Brandy in here from Mayfield.

[00:02:42]Yeah, I uh I definitely want you guys to make sure you're subscribing and turn notifications on on YouTube because the notifications on YouTube work much better than on Facebook. Facebook is just they want me to pay for the verification. I'm not doing it. Riley, good evening to you.

[00:02:56]Donald, hello. How do we know for real?

[00:02:57]Exactly. Kindred, thank you. Tracy, hello again. If you guys are just now hopping in here with us, you have not missed anything. and we haven't gotten started yet. I'm going to give it until probably 8:31 p.m. Eastern time. So, we have 2 or 3 minutes here. Let everyone get in, get settled in here. We're going to go over the model data, the newest SPC forecast, and of course, um, show you our forecast and everything as well as ours is a little bit different than the SPC. I usually don't do that. I usually don't make a forecast separate unless I feel like something's being missed. And I felt like something was being missed this morning. That's no dog to the SPC. I know everyone wants everyone to fight. That's not a dog on them at all. It's just I felt like something was being missed. So, we made our own forecast. Um, yes, I will be live for the storms tomorrow. So, make sure you guys have the notifications and stuff turned on.

[00:03:39]Turn on the bell. You guys know how that works. If you're on Facebook, go up to the top of the page, set us to your favorites. I don't know why Facebook has to make it so difficult, but they do.

[00:03:46]Again, another reason you probably should just go watch on YouTube. It it just the stream just looks better on YouTube, by the way, as well. I'm going to be honest with you. I actually make more money on Facebook. But I'm being honest with you. The experience, the stream, the notifications, everything works better on YouTube. I just It just does. It just does. Kristen, good evening. Justin, hello, my friend.

[00:04:10]We're going to let you guys know all about what to expect for tomorrow. Now, of course, as always, there there is still some variance, but we'll give you the best guess as of this point here. If you didn't know, we are expecting a rugged severe weather day throughout a lot of Kentucky tomorrow. For a lot of you, it's going to be your, this is not hyperbole, but it's going to be your biggest severe threat uh of the summer, maybe even of the year. Um, which is really bizarre to say when we're talking about tomorrow being July 21st. But that's where we are. It is going to be perhaps for some of you once again the biggest severe threat of at least the summer, if not for the year. Um, and and and that's just kind of where we're at.

[00:04:47]You know, Elino type of year. You get these you get these lower sacking jet streams along with all these cold fronts coming through. Uh, yes, it will be a little bit cooler after this is all said and done. We will have four or five days where highs only go to the low 80s, much cooler than what we have been experiencing. But that kind of tells you the strength of this storm system. It's going to have a a really nice cold front with it. But whenever you do have a cold front that comes in in the middle of it being 90° with Gulf, you know, due points coming up to the 70s, 80s here in Kentucky, you're going to have severe weather. You're going to have strong thunderstorms and you're probably likely going to have severe weather. So, um, for the people that are questioning tomorrow, I don't think it's a if on if we're going to see strong storms, it's going to be a win. So, I want to make that very clear. Uh, because again, I I have a hard time seeing this bust only because it's just like every time it's it's in the winter time, too. When we get a warm front in the winter time, uh, we're almost always talking about the potential for severe weather. It's the same thing in the summertime when you're talking about a strong cold front in the middle of us being 90° with 70°ree due points. you're going to get strong to severe weather. It almost always happens. And now it's all about figuring out where that's going to occur and what exactly we're talking about here. So, let's go ahead and pull up our main screen. Good evening to everybody watching once again. Let me make sure I say shout out to everybody. We have a beautiful view out of Lichville, Kentucky, courtesy of Grayson County Emergency Management. Beautiful view out there. So, again, if you're just now hopping in here with us, share the broadcast. Like the broadcast, especially since Facebook is being stupid, doesn't want to tell everybody that we're live. Share the share the video for me. put on your newsfeed so your friends and family can view it.

[00:06:23]Thank you guys very much. I appreciate you all. Okay, let me pull up my preview here. I will answer some questions once we get toward the end of the broadcast, but I promise you if if I'm going to be honest here, if you put your screens down and just listen, you're probably going to get a lot of the information that you need. Anyway, here's the categorical outlook for tomorrow. I have no idea why this level three out of five risk is not more into central Kentucky because on last night's update, if you guys remember, if you guys happen to see it, I'm going to use black so it differentiates that three out of five.

[00:06:56]So, this orange is your three out of five risk. Okay, last night it was all the way out here and for some reason they pulled it back even though the data didn't really change. So, I really don't know what that's about. But on our forecast, we've also included central Kentucky in the higher end of the risk.

[00:07:13]And I will explain why here in a moment.

[00:07:15]Okay. So, just wanted to point that out there. So, regardless of what color you are in tomorrow, I mean, even if you're not in So, again, this is three. This is two. This is one. Okay. Well, that's a terrible looking one. This is one. Okay.

[00:07:30]So, level one, level two, level three.

[00:07:32]It's out of five. So, you got enhanced, slight, and marginal. All right. I don't care if you're in this yellow circle or this yellow blob tomorrow. You need to be paying attention because for some again this a lot of you should be included in that three out of five. You can ask almost a lot of the meteorologists and forecasters across the state say even look you guys know me and Mark Wineberg don't get along for obvious reasons but I believe even I've gotten some screenshots of it. I believe even he has stated a lot of these areas need to be in a three out of five risk.

[00:08:01]Okay. I I don't I really don't know what's happening here with the SBC. So, I know a lot of times you guys see that you're not in the highest risk and you think, "Oh, we're going to be fine."

[00:08:10]I don't want that to be the case tomorrow. I don't want you letting your guard down, okay? Just because you're not in the highest risk. I think everyone in the level two, the yellow risk needs to be paying attention as well. And as you guys can see, before anybody ask, does this include me, look at Kentucky. It covers pretty much everyone in the state. The only area it doesn't cover is this about 20 mile wide stretch out here in western Kentucky.

[00:08:32]Okay? So before you ask, does that threat include me? The answer is probably for 97% of you going to be yes.

[00:08:38]Okay, glad we got that cleared up here folks. Tornado risk looks like this.

[00:08:43]Okay, I do not think the tornado risk is the greatest risk tomorrow, but there is the potential for a few tornadoes and one or two of those may be strong. Okay, especially out here into kind of the eastern portions of Kentucky. I think they got the tornado tornado risk mostly right. I would put it a little bit more closer to I65, you know, Etown, Munfordville, uh down there toward um what city is that? Glasgow. I would probably put it a little bit more down there as well. But I think they mostly got the tornado risk map right, which is ironic because they messed up the the overall. I I don't That's what I'm saying. I don't understand. Here's what I think is going to be your greatest Well, before I talk about that, let's go ahead and talk about the hell. There will likely be some hail with this because that second line for at least a little bit or for at least the majority of that line is going to be what we call elevated. Okay? And what we mean by elevated is you have elevated or surface base storms. So you have storms that are either riding close to the ground or they're riding up into the atmosphere a little bit. And when you have storms that are riding up into the atmosphere a little bit, they can still rotate, but obviously that rotation is likely not going to reach the ground because it's going to be up into the atmosphere. So nine times out of 10 when that occurs, you get hail as a result. Okay, I'm trying to spill it. You get hail as a result and damaging winds. All right, I will explain. I will explain. We're just going over the outlooks right now. Here is what I think your leading risk is likely going to be. And the SBC also agrees with this. And this is why you have your level three out here in Eastern Kentucky in in pink, purple, whatever color you want to call this.

[00:10:14]Half of us are color blind and we don't realize it. 45% damaging win risk.

[00:10:18]That's quite high. That's quite high.

[00:10:20]You will a lot of people will see that and say, "Oh, that means there's a 55% chance it's not going to happen." You're probably not going to see the SBC go over 50% on anything ever unless it's something extraordinarily rare. This is not extraordinarily rare, but it is significant. All right, so 45% is high.

[00:10:36]Okay, in red is a 30% risk.

[00:10:41]All right. And then yellow is your 15% risk. I know it's probably hard to see this black on here, but you get it. So, at the lowest spot in Kentucky, which is the western side of the state, which is really ironic because usually it's this side of the state that gets hammered.

[00:10:56]You're actually getting the easier side this time for once. At the lowest, it's a 15% risk, which is still a slight risk. So, you're still talking about a very decent risk even out there all the way in western Kentucky. wind speeds, by the way, tomorrow with some of these storms may go up to 75 miles per hour.

[00:11:11]So, you're talking about hurricane force winds at that point. Uh so, again, you're talking about some very serious stuff. And have to remember, even though for a lot of you, it hasn't rained as much lately, our grounds are still very wet. So, these tree roots and everything, pretty soft stuff. So, that's how that breaks down there.

[00:11:28]Again, I think this purple risk probably needs to be a little bit further over here into central Kentucky only because I think that secondary line for a brief bit will be quite enhanced. And again, I'll show that to you on the model data.

[00:11:42]All right, we all good on the outlooks.

[00:11:46]This will update at I believe 2 a.m.

[00:11:49]Tuesday morning. So, in about what is that 6 hours, five and a half hours or so. So, of course, we will post that whenever it gets updated. Again, I fully believe that this will be stretched back into central Kentucky. I don't know why it was even removed in the first place.

[00:12:03]All right, here is the model data.

[00:12:06]Before I go into this, this little floating white stuff that you see on the screen here, oh, a bird on the camera.

[00:12:12]This these are the wind particles. So, this is showing you how the wind is moving. This is a new feature from Weatherwise. Um, so again, this is really cool. I actually caught a video of it earlier if you guys want to see just to just to kind of show you how it works. Uh, I haven't edit this. I haven't edited this up yet. So, it's a little bit raw. But just to show you how this works because I think it's important to know why this how this works. You can see this is a tornado warning that I caught earlier up here in I don't even know where this is at.

[00:12:40]Somewhere up in way north. Okay. But you see weather Weatherwise's tornado ID signature right there. And when I hit play, you'll see the winds are actually rotating with the rotation of the storm.

[00:12:49]So, that's how this works. It's really it makes rotation a lot easier to see.

[00:12:52]So, just kind of give you a heads up on how that works. All right.

[00:12:56]We're going to show you the model data now. Um, go here. Here. Okay.

[00:13:05]Actually, I want to start with the composite. So, here is what's actually happening to our north. And this is important to watch. Okay. This activity up here in Iowa and Illinois, well, this is going to be responsible for leaving a boundary for our storms to spark Tuesday morning out here in northern eastern Kentucky. Okay? So, keep that in mind.

[00:13:24]So, if you want to know if you want to like kind of get an eyeball as to what to expect for tomorrow morning, again, watch that stuff. And yes, it can be severe as well. So, again, kind of cool to see. It's already kind of going out here. You need to keep an eye on it. And uh that's kind of what's coming into Kentucky tomorrow morning. So, let's go ahead and pull up the models now that we have that kind of addressed.

[00:13:45]And just kind of I'm going to hit the play button and just skip through here.

[00:13:48]So, give it just a second to load. That loaded fast. Okay.

[00:13:54]This right here is valid for I know it's really hard to see, but it's up here in the top 11:00 a.m. Okay. And you can see that even at 11 a.m. Look at how mean that line looks. I mean, that looks disgusting. You got it's maxing out the color table, which means one or two things here. So, if you're looking at the radar here, this is supposed to be your radar reflectivity. When you're looking at this and you ever see black or white, that means the color table is being maxed out, which mean or and even purple sometimes, which means one of two things. either you've got some incredibly heavy rainfall at like I'm talking incredibly heavy or an updraft is occurring and an updraft leads us to believe that something is severe whether it's damaging winds, tornadoes, hail, whatever you want it to be or whatever it is. Um, again, leads us to believe something is severe is occurring. And if I kind of zoom in here, you'll see I'll kind of just point it out a little bit as well. If you pay attention to those white particles, it might be a little hard to see if you're on your your cell phone screen, but you'll see winds are coming in here, winds are going in here, and winds are coming out here. So, we have rotating winds inside of this cell, for example. So, we know that even out the storms that are coming tomorrow morning, remember there's two lines or potentially two lines, even those storms will be rotating. So, just kind of keep that in mind. This is 12:00 p.m. You'll see the progression here. Again, you'll see you'll notice this is mostly going to be northern Kentucky into eastern Kentucky for this first line. So again, make note of that.

[00:15:21]All right, let's go ahead. Wh Let's go ahead. What? Dude, you'll now let's go ahead and progresses forward. You'll see that first line is now progressing through Lexington, Frankfurt, Morehead, so on and so forth.

[00:15:34]This will eventually weaken as it heads more to the southeast here, at least get out of our way. And then our second line rapidly develops behind it. All right.

[00:15:42]And I want to point out as this first line weakens, okay, again, we're right about one o'clock tomorrow, so one o'clock Eastern time. As this first line weakens, okay, and pushes off to the southeast here. A little bit of it on the western side each time will get left behind. So you'll see like this and this and this, and that's called an outflow boundary or an invisible boundary where storms can later spark. Where that boundary exactly goes, I want to make sure this is very clear. Where that boundary eventually goes is unknown at this point, but it will also have the greatest tornado potential. So, you really need to be paying attention to the forecast updates tomorrow because again, this will eventually fade out and that outflow boundary will go to the northwest and then eventually it will spark. Where does it spark at? Does it spark toward Louisville? Does it spark toward Taylor'sville? Does it spark toward Frankfurt? Um, again, this will be later on in the day. And wherever it does, that area and just south of it would have the greatest area of tornado potential.

[00:16:37]In this scenario, it would be Barstown, Danville, Taylorville, Frankfurt, Campbellville. Again, that's just an example. It's not saying that's exactly what it's going to be. But again, we'll have to watch that first line, see where that boundary goes, and that will be that area in within about a 75 mile radius will be your greatest tornado potential for tomorrow. Okay.

[00:16:58]Okay. Let's zoom this out a little bit and kind of show you the full state here.

[00:17:02]Let's do it like that for now. West Kentucky, you're getting shaved off a little bit. Okay, advances for this is again dude, stop moving. Why does it do that?

[00:17:13]Clicking the dot here. Oh my gosh, I'm going to lose my mind. That's fine, honestly. So, this is val for 2 p.m.

[00:17:21]You'll see there's a couple of cells popping up over here toward Irvington, Benberg, Elizabeth Town. At this point, these cells will have to be watched extremely carefully because these will be sup these will likely be supercells.

[00:17:31]Um, and by this point, by about 2 o'clock to 3:00, obviously you're getting the peak heating. You're getting into that low pressure or um that 850 mibar. Some of the better winds above our heads are getting a little bit closer to Kentucky at this point. Um, so we'll need to watch these cells and then these cells will eventually form a line.

[00:17:46]You can still see, by the way, extremely strong storms going through Lexington, Nicholasville, Senna, Frankfurt at this point in the northern portions of Kentucky toward eastern Kentucky. So for those of you asking, yes, one would assume that first line would make the environment weaker for the second line. But the model data is showing something a little bit special for Mars. What we call a a steadystate environment where even if a first line comes through, it will not weaken the environment enough to make that second line a little bit safer. They both lines should be severe is basically what I'm saying here. Okay?

[00:18:21]even in the same areas. So, this is valid for 3 p.m. You'll see those couple of cells out there toward western and what central Kentucky have now sparked.

[00:18:29]And again, now we're seeing a lot more rainfall up here toward northern Kentucky. So, northern Kentucky, your main line will probably going is probably going to be that early morning line. I don't think you're going to see severe weather from that second line because that second line will probably spark somewhere around this black line here and then move south. So, if you're, you know, if you're above this black line, which is this way, you're likely not going to see much from that second line. You'll see continuous thund showers like what the model data is showing. If you are below that black line, that is where you're going to see that second line of storms tomorrow afternoon and going into the evening. I know it's very confusing. That's why a lot of you had trouble reading the graphics earlier because it is very confusing. Okay, now I've answered this forward once again. You'll see those two lines are now coming together. And this is valid for around 3 to 4 pm.

[00:19:15]And then you'll see another line sparking around 4 to 5:00 p.m. And then you'll see more extension now happening out there toward western Kentucky. So if you'll notice something up here in northwest Kentucky, Owensboro, Morganfield, Madisonville, Marian, Sturgis in the northwestern corner, you guys got skipped, which is good news. Uh because you don't want in on these storms tomorrow. Whether that actually happens or not, of course, I'm not a future I'm not a future teller. I can't tell you. But a lot of the model data is skipping northwestern Kentucky. Okay.

[00:19:46]Advances for this is now valid for 6 p.m. 700 p.m. You'll see that line is now sagging towards the parkways there.

[00:19:53]8:00 p.m. 9:00 p.m. The good news is the severe threat ends by the time a lot of you go to bed. So we're dealing with about 11:00 a.m. for that first line is when it kind of starts to about 900 p.m.

[00:20:02]when that second line exits. That little 10hour well not little but that 10hour window is when a lot of the severe weather will strike. Now, there are a lot of questions as you saw from that model data there, okay? And I'm going to lay it out for you like this because I want you guys to know the full truth.

[00:20:16]Tomorrow has real high potential. It really does. But there are a lot of questions here, okay? Does that first line impact the environment too much?

[00:20:25]Okay. and limit the severability of the second line that will still likely be severe, but will it bring the ceiling down to a more marginal severe, to a more manageable severe, or will it do what the model data showed and not have really that great of an impact on the environment, allowing all lines to be severe? How many lines do we end up with here? Because on the model data right there that you saw, there were actually three lines if we go back.

[00:20:50]So if we go back here and just kind of show you once again um this is valid for 9 and 10. So there's line number one. Okay, we all see line number one out there toward Frankfurt to Flemingsburg to uh Mazeville. Line number two that came in right behind it. Couple cells out here in central Kentucky. And then here comes line number three which would be your main line a part of the actual kind of cold front there which could be the the more dangerous line of storms. So, you've got pot two potentially three lines of storms there and the model data shows every single one of them could be severe, but I I just I've been doing this for 10 years now. I know I'm I'm I'm getting older now. And we almost always see that first line limit the environment for the blinds behind it in a good way. Yes, there will still be thunderstorms coming through.

[00:21:45]Yes, they could still be severe, but they would likely be more closer to 60 mph winds, small quarter sized tail, uh more of your what I call marginally severe storms. Okay, what this model data is trying to show is that all three of those lines would be capable of at least damaging winds up to 70 mph.

[00:22:04]Doesn't mean you're actually going to see that, uh, but it's what this is capable of. 70 miles per hour, a few tornadoes with a couple of those likely being strong, and then uh of course hail up to maybe even pingpong ball size possible.

[00:22:18]All three of those lines that we saw there. So again, it's kind of a battle of what usually happens versus what the model data is showing us. This is why I wanted to do this live video with you and just kind of explain to you, yes, rough severe weather is possible tomorrow. Is it going to look exactly like this model data showed us? probably not because the models have been terrible because we can't launch weather balloons as much because of budget restrictions to the National Weather Service. So, the models have been a lot more um uh I'm trying to think of a word here, unpredictable when it comes to actually handling multiple rounds of storms at one time. If you have one round of storms, it usually does pretty well. If you have two lines of storms, it starts to get a little hairy. If you have multiple storms trying to spark everywhere along a boundary and in the warm uh warm sector in front of it, it usually gets quite messy and doesn't really understand what to do. Okay, so I just want to point out to you rough severe weather is absolutely possible tomorrow and will likely happen, especially the more east you are in Kentucky.

[00:23:19]But it's about how far west does that stretch? How long do these lines last each time? How does each line impact the environment for the line coming behind it? You know, whether it's a big domino effect. So again, I think I think I think even now, even though we're only gosh, what 16 to 17 hours from that first line coming through, there are still a lot of questions. Um, so really tomorrow, I'm going to break it down to you like this. Every single person in Kentucky needs to be paying attention to the weather tomorrow, okay? Because all of you are in at least a level two out of five risk tomorrow, which is a slight risk, which means that there's definitely going to be some severe warnings tomorrow, unless it completely bust out, which is possible, but not likely. and then just kind of ride the punches as they come in. Make sure you're prepared by tomorrow 11:00 a.m.

[00:24:01]for all of you would be that first line coming through northern Kentucky. Okay, make sure you have your generators filled up. Make sure you have extension cores, you know, whatever it is that you got to do to prepare for your storm is make sure you do it. I mean, what's it going to hurt? You know what I mean? To have it all done. Um, now it will be quite windy throughout the state tomorrow. Um, so make sure you have anything that you don't want to lose outside strapped down or brought inside of your garage or whatever it may be.

[00:24:22]Um, if you live in a mobile home for tomorrow, no matter where you are in Kentucky, no matter where you are in Kentucky, if you live in a mobile home or a trailer tomorrow, make sure you know where your shelter is, you you know you have somewhere to go. The good news is this storm line is basically or this storm severe window is 11:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. So, Walmart's usually open during that time. So, a lot of you can just go to Walmart. You know, it's it's a big concrete structure building. So, that should be good. Uh there's no excuse for any of you to not find something to do tomorrow when it comes to you know if you need shelter. Um you know lowest most interior portion of your building. It's most of you it's a basement or a bathroom. Have something to cover your heads. And if again it's going to be really wind really windy tomorrow. So make sure um if you're in a mobile home or trailer or if you know you live in an RV or something that's loose make sure you find a better structure. You have plenty of time right now to go to Google and see what's around you. And if you don't find anything, a lot of you have a Walmart within 20 30 minutes. you can go to if you don't find something. There's a gas station, there's a Dollar General, there's something there's a Dollar General every 5 seconds in Kentucky.

[00:25:22]You've got something around you that you can go to. If you don't have that, any of that or if you just want to take away that kind of fear, we do have a storm shelter partner. I know you've seen their logo scrolling in the bottom left portion of our screen here. Covenant Storm Shelter gives you time.

[00:25:39]I actually want to read it to you like this. A warning gives you time, but you still need a safe place to go. Covenant Storm Shelter is a Kentucky-based veteranowned company installing underground tornado shelters built to protect families when seconds matter.

[00:25:50]Don't wait until storms are approaching.

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[00:25:57]That's what that I mean that's really true. So again, you'll see their number on their logo scrolling in the bottom left there. Make sure you give them a call and get something going with the storm shelter, guys. I I think it's going to be quite the active uh fall and winter for us. So make sure you got something in place there.

[00:26:14]Harden News First Alert. Dave, what the hell is Harden News? Okay, I'll get to some of your questions. Now, before I do, let me get you a couple more messages from our sponsors real quickly. Again, I'll try to answer as many of your questions as possible for the next 10 to 15 minutes or so. But here's a few messages from our sponsors.

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[00:27:48]What's the tornado risk looking like for Cynthia, Kentucky? It's a 5% risk. What time in Bowling Green? Again, you would be that later portion of that window, as you saw in the model data there, would probably be somewhere between 5 to 10 p.m.

[00:28:02]How strong are possibly strong tornadoes for tomorrow? Right now, it's up to EF1.

[00:28:06]I I think you may see a you could see a hatch risk a sig risk one put in, which would mean up to EF2.

[00:28:14]Again, severe window, guys, the overall severe window tomorrow is going to be 11:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Eastern time.

[00:28:21]risk for Bowling Green is at is currently at a 2%.

[00:28:29]And guys, overall time frame is 11:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.

[00:28:42]What is the timing for Muenberg County?

[00:28:45]Uh, probably at second line. So, probably looking more toward 5 to 10 p.m. Someone asked about rainfall totals. Let me go ahead and show you guys those. I know you guys love looking at that.

[00:28:54]Um, just do this.

[00:29:00]Here's the projected rainfall totals from the uh model data. I know it's kind of hard to see, but just take a second, look around there, and find your find your area.

[00:29:08]Probably going to zoom in a little bit more toward here.

[00:29:13]Again, this is not going to be 100% perfect, but it's going to be somewhat close.

[00:29:19]Classic County, I believe, is at a 2% chance for tornadoes.

[00:29:26]Yes, pay attention to the tornado risk tomorrow. Overall, the entire severe risk.

[00:29:31]You see any way this could fail? I guess if that first line is just a a crap ton of rainfall, we could see this fail. But then you're talking about a lot of flash flooding. So, you're kind of picking your poison.

[00:29:44]Yes, London Somerset would be closer to the the later time frame there. So, probably closer to 6:00 to 10:00 p.m.

[00:29:48]Eastern time.

[00:29:50]You think tornadoes are likely in Brandenburg? I think it's a about a 2 to 3% chance.

[00:30:02]How bad for Georgetown? Again, everyone's kind of to me in about the same risk here. Damaging winds, tornadoes, all possible there.

[00:30:10]We didn't have a down what does that person say? A basement. Our downstairs bathroom is on an exterior wall with window.

[00:30:17]and just get somewhere in the middle of your building.

[00:30:22]What area has the greatest threat statewide? The more east you go, the better you are or the more risk you have. The quite opposite of what it usually is later in the evening for Harland. That's correct. Just moved to Danville on Friday. What a welcoming gift this is. Welcome to Kentucky, my friend. You get the most random crap.

[00:30:38]Well, you probably been in Kentucky for a while, but yeah.

[00:30:42]So, tornadoes will be like EF1 or EF2.

[00:30:44]Right now, the SBC is up to EF1.

[00:30:52]I'm not sure what Olive Hill is.

[00:30:56]Uh, Matthew, thank you for your uh donation on PayPal. You guys don't have to donate, but thank you very much for that. I appreciate you.

[00:31:05]Shelby said, "Is the first line going to be as severe as the second line?" Right now, the model data is showing both lines will be severe.

[00:31:12]I'm in Ashlin, Kentucky. What time can we expect it tomorrow? Again, 11:00 a.m.

[00:31:16]to 9:00 p.m. is the overall window, folks. Ashlin, Kentucky, probably you might see you might see all lines. So, again, just kind of pay attention throughout that whole window.

[00:31:25]You know, when the the worst will hit Harden County, well, Harden County is kind of right on the edge of that first and second line. Uh, so I mean, really, if that first line reaches you, you're talking about noon. If it doesn't reach you, you're talking about 5:00 p.m. So, again, just kind of pay attention throughout that whole window.

[00:31:44]Will you run through the timeline one more time? Yes, I will run through the timeline one more time. Let me give you these last few messages from our partners real quickly and then we'll go through the timeline one more time.

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[00:33:27]All right, that's the messages from our sponsor. Thank you guys for for hearing those out. Again, our partners are the only reason we could be here for you guys 24/7. So, I hope you guys consider supporting them however you can.

[00:33:39]H Okay, I'm going to go back through the model data now. All right. Show you guys um the timeline once again. Again, it's not going to be 100% 100% like accurate and perfect here, but I will show you guys once again what the timeline looks like. I'm going to give you guys a second to find yourselves on the map. Okay? If you don't see your specific city name or neighborhood name on the map, you should at least see a city that you know is near you. And if you don't know where you're at on the map, it's probably a good time to figure that out.

[00:34:25]We good? Everyone find themselves. Okay.

[00:34:29]So again, I know it's really hard to see, but the time the clock is at the top here. I will also call it out for you.

[00:34:35]So this is valid for 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. You'll see the line is now inside of uh north, I call it northeastern Kentucky, but most people just call it northern Kentucky. Okay? And again, this will be strong to severe. All these storms have the potential to be strong to severe tomorrow. Make that very clear. This is noon.

[00:34:55]This is 100 pm.

[00:34:58]This is 2 pm.

[00:35:01]And again, you're seeing all these storms all have the potential to be strong and severe.

[00:35:06]This is uh 300 p.m. You'll see a big jump to the southeast there. Again, I don't know if this is going to be 100% accurate. It's probably going to be something a little bit different. Okay, but just this is kind of the overall general. By the way, you can just to take a little bit of a pause here. Look at stance in Kentucky. Look at the wind particles here coming out, going in, coming out, going in. So again, you're kind of seeing these storms are going to be rotating.

[00:35:33]All right, this is 4 p.m.

[00:35:38]Again, you'll see all these storms have the potential to be severe. We have a rogue supercell on the backside here.

[00:35:43]This is going to be your spark for the second line. Boom. There you go.

[00:35:48]This is 5:00 p.m. Here comes your cold front. By the way, this this second line will have the cold front attached to it.

[00:35:55]So when this line comes through, you should feel a drastic drop in temperature. And I mean a drastic drop in temperature. Here comes 6 p.m. Again, also notice, want to point out to you folks out there in northwest Kentucky, that's Owensboro, Madisonville, Morganville, this area here, you'll see on this model run, you got what we call gapped, which means you got missed. Is that going to happen? No idea.

[00:36:21]Probably not, but at least on this model on this model run, you got mist advancing this forward. And by the way, once again, point out all these storms have the potential to be strong to severe.

[00:36:33]This is now going to be for 700 p.m.

[00:36:35]It's now approaching the West Kentucky Parkway, Bluegrass Parkway going to the south uh southern portions of Kentucky.

[00:36:40]This is 8:00 p.m.

[00:36:43]Again, now you'll see it. And now it's starting to take kind of its tick down.

[00:36:46]It's starting to go down in nature here.

[00:36:48]And then by 9:00 p.m. Eastern time, it's pretty much all gone and out of Kentucky. And we're all left with much better temperatures as you can see here.

[00:36:58]So again, just kind of point out this is before the storms.

[00:37:02]This was at 12:00 p.m. Let's do um here's 2 p.m. which is typically your highs. So 90 93 90 91 86.

[00:37:11]And here's after the storms. Much better. And then here's Wednesday's high. Just for example, for some of you, I know you guys like to see this. Highs on Wednesday only getting into the upper 70s, low 80s. So definitely a a decently strong cold front coming in. So that's the time frame kind of broken down again for you.

[00:37:28]I'll go ahead and put up the categorical outlook. Once again, you can see everyone in Kentucky is in a severe risk. Every single person, every single one of you in this chat, doesn't matter where you are, you are in a severe risk.

[00:37:39]Looks like Louisville's in the clear.

[00:37:40]It's going to miss us. I highly doubt that.

[00:37:46]Can you show us where the greatest threat for tornadoes will be? Here is the tornado risk map from the SPC.

[00:37:51]You'll see the greatest risk is in brown.

[00:37:54]That basically going to be for long and just east of I65.

[00:37:58]I do think it probably gets stretches.

[00:38:00]It probably gets stretched in the future updates to like here. If it does, it would then match our forecast. So, if you guys didn't see our forecast, um, of course, I don't have it here. Here it is. This kind of shows it a little bit.

[00:38:15]This is our max hazards forecast. I know it might be a little bit difficult to see, but you can This has already been posted to our Facebook and Twitter, so you can go see it there if you want to see it any better, but you'll see I have that I have pretty much the same SBC forecast. I just have it stretched into central Kentucky a little bit more because of that outflow boundary spark that we talked about earlier on in this video. By the way, look at that sunset on the live camera out of Lichfield out of courtesy of Grayson County Emergency Management. Beautiful sunset out there in Grayson County tonight.

[00:38:45]I know I probably should have made the blues a little bit more distinct. It's probably difficult to tell, but yeah, nonetheless, you'll see about 80% of Kentucky is included in some sort of risk in my opinion and about 90% of Kucky's included in some sort of severe risk per the SPC. So yes, all of you need to be watching tomorrow.

[00:39:08]Yes, everyone should be prepared to take shelter tomorrow. Again, that doesn't mean all of you are going to need it, but everyone should prepare for it.

[00:39:20]I see a lot of people asking about specific locations, Mount Sterling, Mount Washington. Again, you kind of see here per the map, you are all in at least a level two out of five risk, which means you are all in at least a a respectable severe risk for damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail. That is pretty much 95% of Kentucky. So, I love you guys, but you're all going to get the same answers. Now obviously the more east you go like out here toward Lexington, Mazeville, West Liberty, Ashlin, Louisa, Prestonburg, you know, the more east you go, the more you know, the greater the risk. But it's not that much different versus somewhere like Elizabeth Town or Litzfield or Campbellville.

[00:40:00]I've already pulled up the tornado risk map.

[00:40:05]What would you recommend for people in central Kentucky risk for leaving work around 4 to 5? Again, just pay attention to the radar. I mean, I I really don't know what to tell you guys to do at that point. If you know, if you have, you know, you have to travel for work and stuff. I mean, obviously, if you can leave a little bit earlier uh to, you know, make sure you're avoiding anything, but, you know, just check the check the weather radar. Go to wkwx.com, our website that has a live radar on it.

[00:40:28]Um, again, just kind of kind of check those places because I I don't really know what to tell you at that point.

[00:40:37]I'll put our website in the chat so you guys can save it.

[00:40:43]Yes, Reed timmer is coming to either Ohio or Kentucky per his own words.

[00:40:46]Probably somewhere up there toward Mazeville. Don't freak out.

[00:40:55]We're talking about squall lines or discrete supercells. Probably both, Alex. Probably be discrete supercells first that would eventually form into a line.

[00:41:04]Yes, the brown is the highest chance of four tornadoes. Again, on the tornado outlook, the brown is your 5% risk. The green is your 2% risk.

[00:41:19]Okay, folks. I'm going to go ahead and wrap up this broadcast here. I appreciate you guys tuning in to us. I will probably do either a quick rapid update tomorrow morning before the storms come or I will do uh a live I'm not I'm not really sure yet. probably a rapid update video or a post. I'm not sure cuz I will be busy tomorrow morning. But I will make sure I'm live for the storms as well. So, make sure you have our notifications turned on, you're following, subscribed, all that good stuff. Um, but yes, I will be live during the threats for tomorrow. So, I will have your guys' back. We will have updates out tomorrow morning, at least on our Facebook and Twitter. So, if you're on YouTube and don't have our Facebook and Twitter, go find us, you dinguses. Um, but we'll make sure we take care of you guys. We'll make sure we can take care of you guys. All right.

[00:42:00]If you did miss any of the information in this video, you're just now tuning in here, this video will be available for playback here in a few minutes after it gets enough processing on YouTube and Facebook for you to watch. Skip through at your own leisure, whatever it is. Um, I'm George Herb, chief forecaster here with Weather Now Kentucky. We'll keep you guys through this. This is not anything we haven't seen before, but just make sure you're prepared and you'll be okay. Until next time, stay safe, Kentucky.