Quiet Atlantic… But Danger Closer to Home

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:16]All right, welcome back Sky Kingdoms weather. I hope everybody's having a great night. I know for sure I am having an okay night. Um, I just want to say I appreciate all the support in the last 24 hours on the channel. Um, I really really do want to say thank you guys for liking already. It was really nice chatting with you guys ahead of the stream.

[00:00:51]All right, welcome back Sky Kingdoms weather. I hope everybody's having a great night. I know for sure I am having an okay night. Um, I just want to say I appreciate all the support in the last 24 hours.

[00:01:11]My fault. It was echoing. My apologies, you guys. It was echoing. Let me refix that. So, now we have to fix all this.

[00:01:21]Um, I did not realize I had my own tab popped up for the chat and it was playing and I kind of exit out of this.

[00:01:30]So, we're going to take a look at that also. I'm very sorry. I was wondering where it was coming from. So, I was hearing myself that that's totally my apologies. I did not mean for that to happen. But, we are back. It's all fixed up. I hope you guys are having a great um night here. So, how is everybody doing tonight? Um, what's the what's the tea here? What's what's going on everybody? What's the latest on the Sky King's weather team?

[00:02:02]How's everybody doing? I hope you guys are doing well. I hope you guys are doing All right. So, let me quickly do that.

[00:02:23]Any questions? Is anyone here right now?

[00:02:26]Let's take a look. So, we do have a few.

[00:02:28]We have the team meteorology.

[00:02:32]Okay. I had a great day. Good to see you guys. Good to see you, Ripper. Nice to see you guys. We are starting out the stream much stronger than yesterday. I really do appreciate that. I do remember you guys. You guys are great. Go like the stream. Slam that smash like button.

[00:02:49]As you guys already know from the beginning, I really do want to talk about one specific thing about the Atlantic.

[00:02:58]The main development region is going to not be active this year. But given the Atlantic not being active this year and with some of the information I showed you guys yesterday and some of the information I've been um talking about, this can actually bring homegrown systems and it might not be an active season, but with the NJO setting up over the eastern Pacific and parts of the Gulf of Mexico, Eastern United States, any rain for Trinidad. We'll take a look at that in a couple minutes. Um, as of right now, no, it's very dry out there near Trinidad. So, your weather does seem pretty nice, but I will be double checking and making sure as you guys are joining the stream.

[00:03:53]Please like, let's get as many people as possible. Also, feel free to subscribe if you guys are just joining in. It'll be really nice if we can get some new subscribers and some of our old audience and really build back the Atlantic hurricane season once again. I've been waiting to do this every day and kind of do this for you guys and really blow up in the hurricane season once again. We did really, really, really good last year. best um season that I ever did in the weather community. And I just have to say thank you for you guys to joining and listening to me gap about meteorology for hours. Um like Hurricane Melissa, if anyone that was watching throughout Atlantic better not pull off a Melissa again. I It's crazy how you just brought that up, but you're right.

[00:04:51]Um, if you guys do remember from Hurricane Melissa, it was truly an issue. I mean, I actually been working on a document for Hurricane Melissa and basing it off, you know, a little bit of the channel and having a little bit of the channel again in it because Hurricane Melissa really helped this channel out. Um, sadly, it caused um a um a lot of issues. It really was sad to see it make landfall directly in Jamaica as a 190 mph hurricane. I mean, that was absolutely synonym for meteorology. Something that you will never see again for a while in the Atlantic basin. Um, at least we all hope it doesn't happen again because that was truly a disaster setting up there. So when we're taking a look here, I do want to talk a little bit about where I am thinking where the development will be mostly this year and where it's not as in the thumbnail. Okay, you guys. Um, let me quickly move my pen over here. I want to get it in view here. So, we're going to do pink where I think it's going to be unfavorable in the Atlantic Basin to start it off and where I think it's going to be favorable in the green.

[00:06:18]So, I think the African waves area will be mostly dead. I think this region here will be dead. Okay. I really think we're just going to have too many issues.

[00:06:33]We're going to have a lot of saharin dust and we're going to have a bit of wind shear. Could this still bring? I'm expecting in that box right here. I'm expecting one to three names. Storms.

[00:06:50]Storms. Okay, I'm I'm kind of drawing this out for you guys. Okay, so this is the general I'm going to give you guys the general thinking. Something else crazy is it was during a below average season for the names. Correct. Melissa was Atlantic's history. Correct. Um I I really Yeah, that was something else.

[00:07:12]That was that was the Atlantic's history truly a disaster. But I'm expecting one to three name storms out of the main development region. Okay, that is my thinking. Okay.

[00:07:28]In the Caribbean here, I'm thinking one to two name storms. I'm thinking one to two names.

[00:07:42]All right.

[00:07:50]I'm thinking one to two in the yellow.

[00:07:52]Okay. In the Caribbean, I'm thinking one to two sloppy storms. I'm not expecting major hurricanes. Not this year in the Caribbean. The only way that happens is if the models change and we do get a week or two where a storm can become a major hurricane in the Caribbean. But as of right now, I don't see the chances being as high as last year and previous years.

[00:08:18]But when we take a look in the Gulf of Mexico, this is where I'm really eyeing the ball here is Eastern Pacific.

[00:08:30]I think the Eastern Pacific is going to be very active this Atlantic Hurricane season.

[00:08:35]But with an active MJO and having a few waves going into the Gulf, I do think whatever does go through Mexico will go into the Gulf. And I will see the Gulf of Mexico being a bit activity. I do think with how the patterns all set up, I do think we're going to have a bit of activity to talk about in the Gulf of Mexico going forward. I'm saying about probably four to six storms in the green. And and this is included um this is included you guys this part of the here. I'm thinking four to six.

[00:09:23]I think that's honestly a good call here. Four to six. This is the same you guys. G and the eastern coast here. Uh just looking at on the tropical tibbits.

[00:09:37]I think it's showing a tropical system moving away from Florida. We'll be taking a look at that. But this is my initial thinking. And then once again, subtropics. I think we can have a solid two to four two to four up here in the subtropics to form this Atlantic hurricane season. So, for that being said, you guys, I'm expecting 12 to 14 names.

[00:10:12]All right. I'm expecting I'm expecting 12 to 14 names this Atlantic Hurricane season.

[00:10:25]I'm expecting ah five to it's hard to tell. Four to seven hurricanes.

[00:10:33]I'm going to have to lower it. I think four to six hurricanes.

[00:10:50]four to six hurricanes and then probably two to three major hurricanes.

[00:10:57]I think two to three major.

[00:11:05]I think those are my numbers. I'm pretty like caring for the subtropics.

[00:11:11]Yes, correct. Yes, correct. Could you draw the hot spot for major hurricanes?

[00:11:21]All right. For the major hurricanes, I don't think I don't think main development region's going to have any major hurricanes.

[00:11:29]I don't think we're going to have major hurricanes down there. I think we can. I don't think even here.

[00:11:38]I don't think we're going to have a major hurricane in the Caribbean this year or main development region. The hostiles um is just unconditional. I really don't believe that. But where I do think where the possibilities is, if you guys remember like Florence, I think we can have another Florence. I really do. I have a bad feeling that we can see another Florence. It's been a minute for the Carolinas, but I think for major hurricanes, the best area is honestly right in here.

[00:12:15]I think right in there is the best.

[00:12:21]I think this is the best. Uh with all the knowledge I'm seeing with all the cold fronts and all the systems, I'm thinking the best for major hurricanes is in that box.

[00:12:35]And that's if the high pressure is really strong and kind of curves these like this. I think it's going to be an East Coast season. I really do. Um, with all the knowledge I've been getting and everything I've been looking at, I really am um, hammer hammering down on the spots now. And I'm going to be making a video on this for you guys tonight. And I'm going to have it posted for tomorrow morning. And I'm going to try and edit it tonight and get the and use the same thumbnail. All right? If that's okay with you guys, but kind of put it in a video, not simp simple and sweet. a little bit of some graphics and make a video for it. Could we get an ESA from 2024?

[00:13:21]Yes, I Yes, I I do believe. Yes, I could see an E East. I could see that.

[00:13:31]I could see an E ei Oh my Wow. Eias. I could see that with the atmosphere and everything. I will be alarmed for the southeast coast.

[00:13:46]Um, I'll be alarmed for Bermuda once again. That's my latest thinking.

[00:13:54]I think the best is right there. But I can also see a major hurricane out in the Gulf. If the conditions is right, I could see a category three.

[00:14:07]I can see it. Okay. And I'm going to be explaining more on why I think this is the best region for major hurricanes. I think Caribbean's just too hostile this year with it being called the graveyard.

[00:14:21]I think the graveyard's going to be um the West Pacific. I can agree there. I agree.

[00:14:31]I agree.

[00:14:59]All right, let's do that. All right, that'll be very nice. Also, if you guys are new to the channel, please like, please subscribe. That would be very nice. Um, let's try and get up to 15 um 15.

[00:15:17]All right, let's do that as a goal also.

[00:15:20]Um, that'll be very nice. But we're going to start talking a little bit. All right, we also do have an area 99W.

[00:15:29]This is another issue with a storm. We do we are going to take a look at the satellite imagery here and take a look at this area of risk. So this is 99W out in the West back and South Atlantic were active this year's not going to lie.

[00:15:52]South Atlantic.

[00:15:55]All right. This is 99W. Do I I'm going to give you guys my analysis on 99W.

[00:16:04]Where do I think some developments going to develop out of this? I'm going to show you guys 99W and I'm going to show you guys the chances for this to develop. So, you guys might ask, what's going on here?

[00:16:23]I do see a bit of swirling going on here. We could see that up in here. And we have seen this in the Atlantic basin.

[00:16:33]And I will say your low pressure is somewhere around here. I do think this is going to loop back in with some thunderstorms over time and start to develop. But I think tropical genesis should be taking in the next 24 to 36 hours. I think this will be named in the next 36 hours or so. Um, with the latest things, the only thing I'm seeing that might be a little bit interrupting is there is to seem of some wind shear and probably some dry air. I would say it's some wind shear right now blowing over the storm on this side. You could tell with the thunderstorms fading out like that. So that could inhibited some development.

[00:17:26]But when we take a look at the water vapor also, there is to seem like some dry air um in the mix in the mid levels right here. You guys see those darker browns? You could tell it could go crazy. I agree. But there is some um dry air in 99W. We are going to have to really watch 99W. Okay, that's going to be a very big problem if that does develop for out in the Philippines and out in the west. Okay, so let's see if we do have any hurricane model data on these. And no, we do not as of right now. And 99W, this is the latest GFS. This is the 18Z what it's showing here. And let let me actually take we're going to take a look at the Westpack here quickly. So, let me go out into the Pacific.

[00:18:25]The West Hemisphere. Wait, am I losing it, you guys? Where is it? West Pacific.

[00:18:30]Okay. And when we're taking a look here in the GFS model, we do see um 99W down here. So, I need you guys to take a look into this box where I'm about to draw right in here as I'm going here. Okay, this is 99W. We'll be taking a look at the Atlantic in just a few minutes.

[00:18:56]Okay, but I am taking a look at 99W and out in the west. You guys do see over time in the next 60 hours it does become more and more organized and we do get some more favorable development and the dry air goes away with the GFS. It does develop it easily into a hurricane and a typhoon. I mean I'm sorry I'm used to saying hurricane in the Atlantic but a typhoon out in the west. And we do see that um strengthen very rapidly here in the next by the 29th. And I'm just going to give you guys a heads up. If 99W does develop, we will be going live every night on 99W. And we we will be taking a look at 99W and the Atlantic Basin. And we will be going live tomorrow night.

[00:19:48]We'll be going live Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Okay, we will be going live. So, that would be a big thing there. Okay, I'm I'm just trying to let you guys know. Um, if you guys would like to see that and enjoy that. But we do see this become a major typhoon.

[00:20:09]And good news uh not oh the GFS decides to bomb this out and then slams right into the Philippine Islands. these islands just I think just got attacked too um with the last storm and it kind of rides right over the islands as a major typhoon potentially and cause some major rain and then moves out to sea and then do we see anything else in the future for the west pack? Um this is around June 6. We do see a little bit more of the ways of some waves but nothing more significant. So, I will be using the GFS and the European. We'll be looking at the European and the GFS um Jaw the Ripper.

[00:20:59]So, don't worry. We're taking a look at all the models. We just don't have any hurricane models at this given moment.

[00:21:06]But how does the conditions look with the dry air? And in the beginning there is some dry air like I said um in the mid levels that the model it has many options. Correct. I agree with you. And we do see the dry air mostly staying out of the storm. But with a dry air mass sweeping in from the north here, it does interfere with the system a bit according to the GFS. And that's if the high pressure gets all wrapped. This still is very far out. The models are kind of all over the place with 99W.

[00:21:49]And we're going to have to keep an eye on this um tonight, tomorrow, and going into the future on 99W.

[00:21:59]Okay. And we do see that withstands its strength as a major typhoon but slowly weaken as more drier gets funneled in in the mid levels and the low levels. But that's one option according to the GFS.

[00:22:14]But when we go one run ago, it was in a whole another place. And then when we go in another run, it was down there and another run right there. So it is all over the place on the GFS. So take that with a grant of salt on the 18Z. Okay.

[00:22:32]But when we take a look at the European here, what is the European 18Z is at least saying? Um and then let's compare the 12Z and then we'll take a look at some of the ensembles from 99W and then some of the potential impacts that if some of these cons case scenarios does blow out um we could be looking at. So, as we're taking a look at the 18Z here, it does keep the storm relatively weak. One of the reasons the European and the 18Z keeps it weak is because um dry air intrusion does keep it from um tightening up as fast. But they are all in the same path where it does get pretty close to some of these islands here um where they were just impacted very crazy. Okay. Um, when we took a look at the 12Z, it was a little bit different, a little bit stronger on the 12Z and it did get it down to a major typhoon, but kind of stalls out right near the islands and then gets dragged out to sea by a coldront right here. So, you guys see that it it gets dragged out by another cold front right here and it kind of protects the islands right here.

[00:23:59]Okay, so that's kind of the opinion on 99W is does that cold front kind of lag behind and never and never kind of sweeps the storm 99W out to sea? Those are some of the questions that I'm taking a look at as of right now. In the European case scenario on the 12Z, remember this is going to change tomorrow, but on the case scenario on the European is the cold front sweeps and it kind of drags this storm like this, stalls it out for a little bit and then gets it slingshots here. What the GFS does here, now I want to take a look at the GFS, okay?

[00:24:50]is the GFS has the coldront earlier. You guys see that it sweeps the coldront much earlier already and it's already down here. So, the storm never gets to completely get slingshotted out to see. And with it getting stronger faster, it kind of gets caught up in this boundary front if you cannot tell. So you guys see this cold front right here up into Alaska. It's dragging in this colder air, but you guys see this tail end right here. So now, does a high pressure from behind keep it from getting fully dragged out to sea? And those are some of the questions that I have. Also, um, we're going to have to wait and see on that. I think it's very interesting looking at the European and GFS and what happens with the GFS. The coldfront kind of gets dragged out here according to the GFS and the Europeans more delayed. So the Europeans idea is the 99W gets dragged out by the coldront. The GFS scenario is coldront's quicker and the high pressure gets build back here near Alaska.

[00:26:14]and it kind of swings this storm even closer into the islands, but it doesn't go into China. It doesn't go into Taiwan because of the high pressure kind of weakens and follows along behind that coldront. And how weather works in the atmosphere, it continues to be pulled. So, it gets dragged up these islands and then out into Alaska and then it hits Alaska as an extropical cyclone. Um, that's another scenario.

[00:26:51]And when we take a look at the shear, how does the upper levels look for this? And the upper levels look pretty conducive according to the GFS in the beginning. And the European is pretty conducive also in the upper levels. So the upper levels are pretty conducive for 99W.

[00:27:16]And when we take a look at the GFS, also very conducive. The only differences is on why it's a little bit weaker is the GFS develops a core quicker and it doesn't get affected by dry air as much as the European. So, there's some questions on its early life. Does it wrap up a little bit quicker? Does it not get impacted by the drier as much?

[00:27:42]And it could keep this much stronger.

[00:27:44]But if more drier gets in the core and keeps it kind of weaker, this is going to get pulled easier out to sea. So, stronger storm closer. Okay. And the quicker that cold front is and the weaker the system is, the more south it is, the more likely that this storm will try and steer into the Philippines and Taiwan. So there's your answers on that.

[00:28:13]Okay. So I will make a graph for you guys tonight for tomorrow's stream on 99W. Would anyone like that?

[00:28:31]Would you guys like that idea?

[00:28:50]All right, sounds good. Feel free to donate everybody. We are going to be live for at least a good another uh hour, I would say. We are really dissecting 99W and the East Pack and the Atlantic. We're kind of taking a look at all tropics. Okay.

[00:29:08]Um, when we take a look at the European AI, let's take a look at some of the AI models. What does the AI see out of this? Okay, you guys might be wondering, you haven't looked at the AI models. Um, what are they saying? Okay. and the AI models does see it developing very rapidly into a major into a category two or just major typhoon, but it's kind of more on the option with the GFS with the European AI. The European European AI likes the coldfront being quicker already just like the GFS and kind of like this. So you guys see that right there just in time. And it's not enough pull for this to get dragged out to sea. It's kind of in between the GFS and Euro with the Euro AI and it gets it really close. Not a direct landfall, but it does a GFS where it steers it right near the islands and cause some major impacts.

[00:30:19]By the way, weatherwise is zoom in. Zoom in. zoom out map for winds, temps, and cloud cover and rain. Thank you.

[00:30:46]Who loves the coverage? Everybody, we've been live for 30 minutes. Keep it going everybody. I really, really, really appreciate it here on the stream. Thank you guys for all the support. I really do appreciate it.

[00:31:04]GFS may be recurving itself because Euro AI is agreeing with it or Euro AI is getting bad.

[00:31:12]It could be either that. It could be either or. Um, we'll have to just wait and see on that. Okay. When we take a look at the AIGFS, the AIGFS is pretty close with the EUR European AI where it keeps it very strong, but the cold front's a little bit um kind of gone already. You guys see this? The coldront's all the way back in Alaska and it's kind of fetching on here. So, what the AIGFS does is actually makes a landfall just like its GFS. So the AI models is agreeing more with the GFS solution and as of right now the Europeans by itself on its boat. Okay.

[00:32:05]Thank you. Thank you everybody. I appreciate 99 could be a Japan impact.

[00:32:10]We'll have to see.

[00:32:13]Okay. We're going to have to wait there too. The Canadian a likes the Yeah, Canadian's Canadian. It kind of gets dragged out to see and stays weak and does like a euro but way more. I don't like looking at the Canadian. It's not the greatest, but it's a model still.

[00:32:32]So, why not take a look at it? Okay. Um, we have to look at the sambles. So, weather. Nerds here. Let me take a look here for your weather.

[00:32:45]We're going to take a look at the European ensembles and we're going to take a look at the Westpack. Um, let's do that quickly. Okay, let's take a look at the Westpack. Okay, and we're going to take a look at the European ensembles.

[00:33:08]This is 144 18Z. And look at this.

[00:33:14]Kind of agreeing with the European, the main one. Some of these do become major hurricanes though, so that is very important.

[00:33:24]Um, your 12Z where it has fresh data is kind of the same.

[00:33:31]It likes the idea of the ensembles are very wide out. We do see, look at that.

[00:33:40]See the the gap here? It's just too much of a gap here on your European AI. You guys see that? It's kind of all over the place. So, your ensembles on the AI, they all support a storm, but nothing major. Kind of a weaker scenario. Every time a model is the closest one to the main official track, give it a point.

[00:34:05]Every time a model is not closes, it doesn't get a point. After a whole season, we shall see which is the best.

[00:34:14]You are correct. I agree with you. We should do that. We'll have to do that.

[00:34:30]Would you like to be in charge of that? I'll let you be in charge of that if you like. We could do it like that. That'll be nice if you would like to be in charge of that. Um, but yeah.

[00:35:09]if you would let me know. It'll be um Let me know.

[00:35:19]All right, we could both be in charge of that right now. Um let's take a look at the another ensemble. The GEFS.

[00:35:27]Actually, that's pretty crazy how close the GEFS is. That's very interesting.

[00:35:33]So, the GEFS ensembles, you guys.

[00:35:37]All right, sounds good. Jaw the Ripper, we can do that. The GEFS ensembles is disagreeing with the main GFS and it's agreeing with the European ensembles.

[00:35:49]But the only thing different is the European ensembles is weaker and the GEFS is stronger. Look at the gap. I didn't even move this. The only thing I actually have to move is it's actually a little bit closer together than the European ensembles.

[00:36:09]So nothing's set in stone you guys on 99W.

[00:36:13]Okay, it's very crazy on how that this is the AI models. Look at that. This is the AI models. No move. So the AI models really like the idea of a strong typhoon, a major typhoon. Cat 4, Cat 5.

[00:36:30]It wants to go ballistic. The G um the FNV3 um there likes to go very crazy on the Typhoon.

[00:36:39]um a little bit closer to the islands, a little bit more of a closer call. Okay, so that's very interesting. When we take a look at your gem here, look at Oh, that's that's a big gap, but it's it's pretty much like the European ensembles.

[00:36:58]It it's really like the European ensembles here. The Jen's um AI model is just stronger. So this is one of the AI models. We're going to now take a look at all the AI models. Pretty large agreement on intensity.

[00:37:16]Yeah, exactly. On the AI models, the agreement for a major hurricane is very there. This is another AI model. This is your GEFS.

[00:37:28]This is your assembles. Look at that.

[00:37:31]There's the cone.

[00:37:33]So your assembles, the cone is like this. Okay, the cone is very large as of right now. There's nothing set in stone. We'll have to wait and see how things go. By the way, I just want to say thank you for everybody tuning in. We are I know it says we're talking about the Atlantic. We kind of got caught up with 99W. A lot of people were really interested on that and we decided to go check out 99W and have kind of a 30 minute episode on 99W and really discuss it with you guys.

[00:38:09]This is by the way the preview of the Atlantic and the preview in general here. Okay. Um, what else do you guys want me to talk about with 99W?

[00:38:23]because we cannot really take a look at the rain impacts just yet. It's just too far out. We kind of did take a look at all the scenarios and possibilities for 99W, but there's not much else we could take a look at with 99W.

[00:38:39]Okay.

[00:38:41]Um, let me know in the comments any more questions about 99W.

[00:38:54]This is exactly what Anino does. Less typhoons, but if any, most likely major, right?

[00:39:02]You're correct. Um, thank you guys for joining the stream. I really do appreciate it and everything. This has been an awesome stream. You guys have been really great here on the channel. I really do appreciate all the support and all the love on this. We're doing great, you guys. We're crushing it right now.

[00:39:23]We're really doing good. I'm glad we're doing good. Um, if you guys do have any questions, feel free. Um, yeah.

[00:39:39]Wow, we're doing pretty good as right now. 12's peak. So, that's good. We are 37 minutes in the stream. So, thank you guys for everything and all the support there.

[00:39:53]So, let's now take a look at the Atlantic Basin. There should be like a PDS Typhoon launch.

[00:40:06]Not a bad idea.

[00:40:20]Um 99W is almost expected to blow up in the next couple days. Correct me if I'm wrong. Hey LTW, nice to see you.

[00:40:58]Thank you.

[00:41:02]I really appreciate it. So, now we're going to take a look at the Atlantic basin. We've been live for 40 minutes.

[00:41:08]We've been crushing it here about 99W.

[00:41:10]Now, we have to take a look at the Atlantic. And then I would like to take a look at the Eastern Pacific. Okay.

[00:41:18]After we're done. So, the North Atlantic here, when we take a look, let's go into 7-day preip anom. Yeah, we're going to take a look at the 7-day preip anomalies. So, this is in the next up to the May 31st. This is in the next 6 days. This is pretty normal as of right now. Most of the southeast and mid-Atlantic and Northeast is very moist and parts of Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma. This is true. Okay.

[00:41:51]Bay of Capichi pretty dry. That's true.

[00:41:55]the Bahamas and Florida area is is pretty true right now. Getting a little bit more moist. A lot of stuff, nothing certain about 99. Definitely a storm to watch. Thank you. Um the main development region is dry. Trinidad and Tobos is dry. Okay, that's pretty common as of right now.

[00:42:18]when we take a look at the next coming weeks and we go into um the June uh pretty much June to the 7th, the first week of June, we do see it to dry out across the Northeast, parts of the Southeast. This all dries out, but what doesn't dry out is Florida. If you guys are tuning in and you guys are from Florida, this is where you guys want to talk about. And listen, very moist the first week of June. A lot of precipitation in Florida going into the first week of June. Clearly um set on the model. Could we see a CAG system try a little seedling try and develop like this and kind of go into Florida and then out the sea and become a tropical system? Could we see a little bit of this type of track of a storm? It's possible, you guys.

[00:43:22]A lot of chocolate moisture CFS monthly for the next year. That's Florida needs to rain, you guys. Florida needs the rain. That is very true. Florida needs the rain, but too much rain could cause a problem. As you guys know, going into the middle of June, Florida stays pretty moist. The southeast gets moist to central US, parts of there. This could be a little bit associated with severe weather season.

[00:43:53]Yeah, it's not fully, but yeah. Um, main development region staying dry, Caribbean staying dry. Nothing too much of there going on.

[00:44:06]When we take a look at the coming weeks, it does dry out a little bit. Southeast stays very moist um throughout the entire month of June. Um could we could be we will see. We will have to see.

[00:44:22]Okay. It's very too early to call as of right now. Um when we take a look at the next coming weeks and throughout June, most of the southeast does stay pretty precipitation wise. Um could we have a CAC system? It's possible you guys. I It's tough. The GFS been hinting at it.

[00:44:43]The Europeans's been hinting at it. The not too much. So that's why I don't want to pinpoint my needles here into that um trusting just yet. But when we take a little bit closer to home in the Western Atlantic, I want to show you guys what the Atlantic does show. So, when we take a look at the we're going to take a look at the favorability also, but I want to take a look at the ML LSP preset. We do see here in the next 120 hours out, look at what the GFS does. You guys see this right here? It does bring a little bit of a low pressure right into the Caribbean, but the Caribbean is very unfavorable. Okay, but as you guys know, the GFS is known to do this, so do take it with a grain of salt. And it's also 126 hours out, so it's still 5 days out. But the GFS does have a area of interest that kind of hugs the Central American Gy kind of like a crystal ball, but not crystal ball back in like 2019, if you guys remember. That was very interesting of a storm. But we kind of see that going to Cuba and kind of develop off the Florida's coastline here as a little pressure. A little weird on how it jumps. That's why I'm not giving my money into this yet. Just a little weird how this develops on the GFS if you guys cannot tell. But it does become a tropical storm off the southeast coast.

[00:46:20]and it does become a relatively strong one and impacts Bermuda as a subtropical most likely. And then we get another area of interest off the southeast coast. You guys see how the lower pressures are. And then going into June, it kind of the pressures kind of died down. Okay. Um later in June. So the beginning of June, something very interesting there. When we take a look at the preset, you kind of see how that develops off the Florida's coast, brings a lot of rainfall, flooding rain. Could be like Alex of 2022. Yes, maybe. And it kind of goes out the sea and gets dragged by a cold front and then a lot of other precipitation moistures even going into the June 8th and stuff. Very interesting how the GFS likes to show a lot of moisture near Florida and how the activity is set up. When we take a look at the the atmosphere, look how much moisture there is with that tropical system. A lot of moisture. Not really any drier.

[00:47:32]That's what I was telling talking about.

[00:47:35]Correct. Could be. All right.

[00:47:38]And we really do see regardless of development, Florida will be with a lot of rain. And I want to just show you guys the rainfall if this is true by June 19th or June 9th. My fault. This is by June 9th. If this is true, um, if the tropical system kind of tries and develops near Florida and Cuba and kind of does a track like this or kind of like this, it does bring regardless 2 to 4 ines of rainfall in the southeast on an average.

[00:48:12]Look at all this rain here. regardless of tropical development, a very moistured, moist atmosphere in the southeast, in the south. Um, a solid two to probably 4 ines of rain. Some spots like um Tennessee, North Carolina, more like four to maybe even six inches of rain. Hi, I just joined. Do you think I should speak? Do you think Southeast Florida should moder this?

[00:48:44]Um, yes I do. Yes, but for for rain for more in the way of too much.

[00:49:04]Look for these early systems. They are usually known for flooding. They should watch. Yes, you guys should watch, but I'm not expecting development as of right now. The development's very low.

[00:49:18]Um, I've seen this in the past, so I'm not really too confident yet on any tropical development. I really do want to wait, but I do think the um risk of flooding rain possible out of it. If it's just one monster blob that goes into Florida, we should monitor this for flooding rains and flood watches if this does occur. So, keep that in mind. Um, this is for Florida. This is the rainfall.

[00:49:46]Okay? I would not worry about wind too much. You guys are known with the wind, but if a tropical system does develop, it will be more of a rain mess. Okay?

[00:49:57]When we take a look at the European, does it show anything on 18Z or 12Z?

[00:50:03]And for the 29th of May, no, it does something different. It doesn't really show tropical moisture. What it does have a low pressure develop in the south. And look at all this rain. A pretty much a rainstorm for the south and Florida. and potentially some severe weather um if that's possible. Okay. Um that's the most likely area of rainfall.

[00:51:13]I do have a question on that though. Um, if you guys would like to answer that. I I that's a question I do have though. I was just thinking about it. Um but yeah, looking into a Pac-Man shaped system. Yeah, it's not Pac-Man, but the European likes that idea on 18Z 12Z is a whole bunch of difference though. So the differences with the European and the European right now is the European is more undecisive and um not too organized on its runto run than the GFS.

[00:52:00]And the European 12Z did have a lot of tropical moisture and kind of little lows to try and develop off the southeast coast um and some waves near Florida and kind of stays really moist.

[00:52:12]When we take a look at the total rainfall, look at that you guys. The GFS and the European, this is what I'm talking about. Regardless of developments, the European is much more aggressive when it comes to rainfall.

[00:52:27]You're looking at about six to about 12 inches of rain Florida statewide.

[00:52:36]Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Mid-Atlantic, Louisiana, Texas, all these regions, a solid 3 to 3 to 5 ines of rain here. So, the European likes the idea of more of a flooding rain up to June 8th compared to the GFS.

[00:53:00]Okay, so there's the differences for you guys. Have a good night. I am going to eat dinner.

[00:53:07]Okay, thank you.

[00:53:20]See you in the next one, buddy.

[00:53:25]Yeah, pretty crazy.

[00:53:32]P3. So, that's not bad. That's all right.

[00:53:38]We're doing pretty good here.

[00:53:41]I do want to say thank you for everybody joining into the stream. I really do appreciate everybody joining into tonight's stream. You're welcome. See you in the next live.

[00:53:54]Thank you.

[00:54:05]All right. So, when we keep talking about the models here and keep taking a look at all this stuff, let's take a look at the European AI. What does it show going into 360 hours out? Same type of deal. A lot of rainfall, very active pattern over Florida.

[00:54:27]Yeah, quite a bit of activity. Something very interesting. A lot of moisture. And it does show a little bit like it does show a little bit of a wave coming out of the Central American gyro. It does look like the Central American gyro will be active. But see that? Look at that. A little tropical system for June 7. Like I said, you guys, homegrown systems is slamming my eyes right now to be honest with you guys. It really has been. And I think that's really possible looking into the future.

[00:55:05]AIGFS also liking the idea of some Central American gy some type of system. It's really eyeing me where we see a lot of moisture. But look at all this moisture you guys that stays through the beginning of June. A lot of moisture with the AI models, a lot of moisture with the Europeans. a lot of moisture regardless of development. So flooding range for Florida is increasing since yesterday. When we take a look at the assembles, I do want to take a look at the ensembles for the Atlantic here.

[00:55:51]Okay.

[00:55:52]and go 144 hours that we already know it ain't going to be anything there. I want to take a look at 12Z 360 hours out. And look at that you guys. Look at that. I do think at some point we will get a five.

[00:56:16]Look at that you guys.

[00:56:20]the European ensembles today.

[00:56:24]A look at this you guys. If you guys are from last stream, sure will light up at some point. Look at this you guys as of right now. Look at all the European assembles picking up on a little bit of something in the same region. Look at that.

[00:56:44]That's eyeballing.

[00:56:46]I was not. It's looking like this hurricane season's going to be have more east coast and subtropical systems.

[00:56:52]Correct.

[00:56:54]But look at that you guys. The not a real signal just yet, but an uptrend since last night on the European ensembles.

[00:57:06]When we take a look at zero Z, look at that. Still showing some there, too.

[00:57:12]And then take a look at 12Z. Yeah, there's definitely a little bit of something. And the GEFS also picking up on a little bit more activity in this region. So, it there is a little bit of an uptick when we're taking a look at that on the assembles. A bit of an uptick.

[00:57:36]AI. No, AI ain't budging. AI says, nah, I don't see it. But AI is not fully in there just yet.

[00:57:51]AI is not fully up there. But um when we take a look at the ensembles, you guys, if you guys are from last night, European Assembles upticked in the Atlantic um where I'm talking about that homegrown system. The GFS also an uptick in the 12Z's.

[00:58:11]Hey Anthony, nice to see you.

[00:58:41]Wait, there's activity this early. I mean, there is a potential of some potential, Anthony. There is a potential. Nothing too major just yet.

[00:58:54]Um, nothing nothing too out of the ordinary saying that there's development going to happen. It's just not there just yet. But in the last couple days as we've been live streaming, there is a little bit of an uptick recently on the models and an uptick on everything. So, we'll have to keep that in mind and keep taking a look at all that.

[00:59:27]National Hurricane Center does not have anything. I don't figure they will um have anything as of right now. Yeah, they don't have anything. I don't blame them. It's too early to say anything just yet. Um I'm not even calling activity just yet either. Yeah, you know when the icons being dumb like that. Like come on.

[00:59:49]Tropical system in Oklahoma. Like come on.

[01:00:01]Very interesting how that plays.

[01:00:04]I don't know about that.

[01:00:12]I do want to take a look at the CFS on Pivotal weather though. I do want to take a look at some of the modeling forecast on Pivotal here. um with the CFS just look in the longer range because we could look at the longer range forecast in the um Atlantic hurricane season the Westpack also. Uh let me just quickly take a look at the CFS.

[01:00:40]That's going to be very interesting going forward there. Also, let's just take a look. This goes out to 730 some hours. This goes out like a month. I just want to look at the pattern overall going into that. So we do see yeah a bit of activity there. It the CFS does see that little wave like the other assembles and models kind of forms off Florida and then goes out to sea. Okay. Then we see another area in the Gulf and Southeast. That's two.

[01:01:20]And then staying pretty moist.

[01:01:23]A little wave coming from the Central American Gyes in the Gulf. See how it's homegrown activity. And then boom, another area of interest in the Gulf.

[01:01:33]This is just fantasy. But this is the pattern. And we see a that ain't going to happen in the main development region, but we do see the idea of homegrown activity.

[01:01:50]Okay, we don't see anything really that spots my eye with the Atlantic.

[01:01:57]Relatively low activity, more homegrown activity this season.

[01:02:02]Um, there's actually nothing else we could take a look at. I want to take a look at the north.

[01:02:24]All right. now.

[01:02:29]Yeah.

[01:02:32]Very interesting.

[01:02:37]Let's take a look.

[01:02:41]Any more questions about Atlantic?

[01:02:54]All right, you guys. Who wants east pack now? Who wants the east pack?

[01:03:01]We could take a look at the east pack.

[01:03:04]The east pack of the Atlant. Um, there too. We looked at the West Pack. We looked at the Atlantic. Is there any more questions about the Atlantic? If not, if you guys do want me to, I could take a look at the East Pack for everybody here.

[01:03:20]Um, feel free just let me know.

[01:04:11]All right, let Let me just quickly fix that.

[01:04:17]I don't know how that's supposed.

[01:04:33]What? I never heard of that one.

[01:04:50]That's 99W.

[01:04:54]That is 99W.

[01:05:32]Up to you guys.

[01:05:39]Up to you guys.

[01:06:20]up to you guys what you guys want me to do. All right, we're going to take a look at the east pack. There's the satellite imagery. Um, nothing too much going on there, but not there's no any activity for the next couple days.

[01:06:40]When we take a look at the GFS, the European, and some of the potential ensembles for the East Pack now, we don't see too much in the way of development. Um, the only thing I'm seeing is far out maybe on the 18Z it did want to show a little bit of a hurricane coming out of the east pack, but that's around June 9th. That's way too far. Um, yesterday we saw a little bit of a hint to that, but this was 12Z and now this is 18Z. So, very uncertain about the East pack. But mostly for the east pack, I'm not seeing too much of anything. Not until later June, probably middle June until we see our first name storm. When we take a look at the European also into May 30th in the east pack, relatively dead. There's nothing going on there.

[01:07:41]Um, going with the 12Z though, it does pick up something though around the June 6 and the June 8th. So maybe the GFS is picking up on what the European picked up on the 12Z, but it does show some maybe around the middle of June in the east pack. We will have to continue to keep an eye out for that in the east pack, but I don't see too much in the east pack as of right now. There's nothing really to talk about the East Pack because there's nothing close to home. Um, it's really hard to tell. All right, the East Pacific here, when we take a look at the next 312 hours, the AI model doesn't really predict anything. Not until the end. Maybe a few ensembles, but actually some of these ensembles have died since yesterday. There's not really picking up on anything in the East Pack anymore. Like yesterday, it was trying to show a hurricane on both of these. So that that's positive news out of the east pack. European dead also with the 12Z to be honest with you guys.

[01:09:04]Not picking up too much. And the GEFS though 336 picking up a little bit but mostly weak.

[01:09:15]Nothing too much either. But when we take a look at the waters for the east pack, they are warming up significantly.

[01:09:27]The El Nino status is definitely going to be an issue with there. But when we take a look at the east pack, you guys look at that very, very warming east pack. Much warmer even in the Baja of California and stuff. Still not conducive for development near up there.

[01:09:45]But in the east back, the waters are loaded. The Caribbean's getting loaded.

[01:09:49]The Gulf of Mexico is getting loaded.

[01:09:52]The waters are warming significantly.

[01:09:55]And the quicker these waters can get going, the more issues we can have. And even in the tropical Atlantic, tropical Atlantic is actually running a little bit below average right now. When we take a look at the main the Caribbean also, it's running a little bit below average for this time of year, especially near just out to Puerto Rico and stuff. A little bit below average as of right now, but that should warm. Um, Cuba, the southeast coast, you guys, and the Northeast is also warming pretty significantly. And the Carolas here warming pretty rapidly. And these regions right here, warming pretty rapidly already. But the main development region and the Caribbean is mostly dead, especially in the Atlantic, you guys.

[01:10:46]Pretty pretty cold. So, the main development region is going to struggle with the waters. Also, when we take a look at that, um, when we took a look at the last seven days in the Caribbean, some parts are warming, but like in the Bahamas areas, that has cooled off a bit.

[01:11:07]Southeast here up here has warmed pretty significantly. And closer to the northeast coastline has warmed very significantly. And the Gulf of Mexico is also warming pretty quickly also. So, not until we start seeing some significant warming. We'll we'll see that also. Uh Easter Pacific warming up, but nothing too rapidly in the last seven days, believe it or not.

[01:11:34]And even in the Central Pacific, relatively average, just slightly below average with some SS not even being too much. So, I guess that's a really good thing. The El Nino status is kind of stalled out as of right now. Kind of as a weaker Elino. Nothing too much confidence just yet on everything, but we'll have to wait and see going forward.

[01:12:01]But for that being said, you guys, I'm going to end the stream here in the next Um, if you guys are new to the channel, please like, please subscribe. That would be very nice. I do want to say thank you guys for all the support in this live stream. Another hour live stream. So that did really go good. This live stream was even better than yesterday. So progress is being made.

[01:12:50]Thank you guys for all the