Bitcoin Has A Big Problem...

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, welcome back to Crypto Cash. Thanks again for joining me here.

[00:00:03]I hope you're having a great day. We're going to talk about the ascending trend here with the macro structure and just letting you know that hey, Bitcoin is still in decent shape in this continuation higher, but I think there's a lot of cracks on the glass, some early time frames or lower time frame divergences we really got to pay attention to, such as breaking this ascending trend line here on the 4hour time frame, losing some moving averages there. We have a potential bearish back test here uh for what kind of looks like uh you know, a head and shoulders type of pattern. It's pretty ugly. I'm not trying to say that that that we're going to drop because of of a stupid pattern, but I do want to tell you that that dropping this ascending trend is a good start, a good shift in momentum on the lower time frames. We can also see that reflected here too where we saw the most recent high here for London just got swept there for Bitcoin here today with the New York open. And the logical next step would be to fill these fair value gaps and to sweep this Asia low market here uh just from, you know, yesterday's price action. So, it's really common to see those levels kind of get hit. A lot of trading sessions. They all tend to battle each other. And at this point, that's uh there's that in combination with a lot of liquidation left to the downside. Strong strong chance uh we do go a bit lower, but we're going to dive into that much more. Be sure to stick around. Let's take a look.

[00:01:14]All right, folks. Before we jump into the back and data, quick reminder, hit the like button, maybe even comment below if you get a chance. Really appreciate you doing that. And what we want to look at first would be just kind of some spot volume. I'm just kind of recognizing here that we do see spot volume essentially running sideways and up. Basically running consistent with the price. That's not like it's a big deal. It's pretty consistent to have the price reflect that of the spot volume.

[00:01:34]As volume comes out, so does the price, right? So, for the most part here, this isn't a major divergence. There's nothing crazy here. No outliers on the delta. While we did have a pretty significant outflow yesterday and that's a good sign of continuation lower, it's also not super um, you know, super conducive of, you know, trend reversal or, you know, a continuation at this point. It's pretty common for a Friday to kind of see this price action, right?

[00:01:58]We can kind of see that reflected here as well. Open interest is down, kind of just letting us know that, hey, we're in a position right now. Open interest low, spot volume kind of going sideways. We can't expect a tremendous amount of volatility. I think Bitcoin is basically just kind of ranging in this $80,000 uh area essentially just kind of leading us to believe it's going to bounce, but it also feels much more like we're going to go lower here. Now, let's quickly look at some outliers here. See if there's any uh key levels to pay attention to.

[00:02:25]Looks like there is some pretty big uh pretty big um buy order at 75,000 and then respectively 83,000 to 84,000 above. So, these are just kind of like the really large orders. this isn't super important to uh to to pay attention to, but they're just areas I like to focus on because a lot of times you'll see pivots or bounces off them initially, right? So, that's why I do post that commonly on our social media.

[00:02:46]Just so you understand kind of why why that happens. Now, when it comes to order books, roughly the same idea, order books and liquidation, they kind of work like uh support and resistance, but they also gravitate towards that those locations, right? So, in other words, we have a lot more buy orders to the downside. it makes more sense for the price to continue lower because there's more interest in buying. I know that sounds kind of the opposite of what you'd imagine, but that's absolutely the way that it works in a lot of ways. Uh so unfortunately that's kind of how that u how that has to be interpreted. But the reason why that's relevant and it it's important to understand that downside makes more sense is because once again open interest delta is dropping. That's kind of a sign of weakness there showing that whales in general are selling. It does it's not a one to one ratio though. It doesn't mean that open interest goes down, whales are selling. It's consistent with the trend.

[00:03:35]So since open interest is dropping and the trend is down, it's best to presume that the whales aren't buying. That's basically what it boils down to. We also have retail is buying though. True retail longs are at 89%. What what true true retail longs is is basically it's just a representation of low volume um low volume trades. Essentially, they're starting to increase. So, what that basically tells us here is that we have retail traders likely buying this dip, right? And when retail buys, whales typically sell, right? At least when they stop becoming active. In other words, when they're just kind of chilling on the sidelines, they're waiting for uh late traders, basically retail traders to FOMO in. And when they do, they tend to sweep those levels. So, I feel like this is somewhat of a trap uh with the price action, especially when we just jumped up to 80.5K there to sweep London high. Uh that's a kind of a standard um very standard trappy situation. All right. Uh need to say the last 3 days worth of liquidation is smaller than the 7-day time frame, but there is some liquidation as low as 78K.

[00:04:34]So my my short-term target in my mind is 78,000. Uh basically just I'm thinking we might see that this weekend here. Uh especially if today ends up being kind of a red day. We can also reflect here as well that 776.7K specifically is that key area there for liquidation. Basically, anyone who took a long in the last uh you know, seven days worth of trading, they're subject to getting liquidated. Imagine that.

[00:04:59]Imagine being in profit on a long position you took at 79,000 and now you're barely at break even. Oh man, that bugs me to hear that. But you know what? Market makers um have a tendency of just kind of tricking people. They did a really big buy, a massive amount of buys last week. It was both spot volume went up and u obviously over-the-counter buys as well. And that just kind of pushed the price in the wrong direction there for, you know, too many people trying to FOMO in. And everyone that FOMOed into 80 to 83 point, you know, 5K is essentially feeling the pinch right now. The inverse could be said, you know, a week ago about those who shorted too, right? I was part of that. I I shorted with our committee at like the 77 to 79K range.

[00:05:39]Had to cut our losses on that one before it hit stop-loss. But once more, those things happen in the market, right? You kind of got to kind of adjust and try to cut your losses a little earlier. While sometimes you do hold trades a little open, more open than you should, um, a lot of times you want to just respect your risk tolerance. All right, anyways, conversation for another day. I just like to always reflect on that or touch on that because I do have a lot of community members who are learning um, you know, from my my my trades as well as more specifically my university videos and obviously our community. So, if you're interested in that, obviously cryptocash.t is a site link down below.

[00:06:10]We've got a lot of new members coming over. Quick heads up and friendly reminder. Make sure if you're going to be, you know, taking these signals. Yes, we took a nice short with ETH yesterday, 24-hour uh 40% profit. I sent out a trade alert letting you know exactly why we take those trades, right? There's always updates coming your way. So, make sure you read through those. Um it's really important. Okay, so looking at the front end here, uh before we go much further, I want to kind of just res, you know, let us tell everybody here for the most part this ascending trend right now, we're over the 20, the 50-day SMA still looking decent overall for Bitcoin. Now, I want to emphasize the word decent because that doesn't mean it's great. Uh simply suggests that the ascending trend is still intact. That's all well and good until other things start to happen, right? Lower time frames start to build that momentum and we could be seeing that shift in momentum. It's far too early to tell, but we do have pretty consistent resistance at 83,000 spec specifically with this descending trend here, the 50-day, sorry, that's the 200 day SMA.

[00:07:07]That's also a kind of a firm indication on the daily time frame that we're in a position where the price uh should continue to progress lower. Oftentimes, when you see that initially retested, it it'll reject out. Uh so once again, that's kind of an area to pay attention to. We also lost 70 in the RSI or rejected off of that. just kind of re reiterating the overextension and the fact that Bitcoin was due to pull back in the 82k range. Um, now once more, if we take a look here at the 4hour time frame, actually, let's look on this chart here, we can kind of see once again the ascending trend is is discontinued, at least for the moment.

[00:07:39]It's common to see a bear a bearish back test before the price goes lower, right?

[00:07:42]So, there's a good chance we do see that. We may see a a scam wick up to, you know, 81 80 81.5K, but I think that's a better case scenario. It may not actually happen at this point because there's a lot of divergence, low volume on a Friday. It's not really the best. And here's once again just that representation of what happens typical uh for trading market uh hours. In other words, uh what was it? Asia here had had its high of 80 80.1K.

[00:08:07]Comes all the way down to 79,000 and ends up closing right around its halfway point. London comes down to try to sweep. Comes very very close. Comes up, hits its previous range high and then of course reverses. Okay. Now, what do you know? New York opens. They come up here.

[00:08:22]They sweep the the London high. And where do you think they're going to go next? It's probably going to be a lot lower here uh to hit that 78k range, right? Or possibly just the lower 79K range. Either way you look at it, a lot of reasons why lower time frames are pointing lower and we want to respect that. Uh but we also want to understand here too, you know, we can't be like wearing our bearish hats right now because the truth is this transition hasn't truly come to fruition. So, I'm going to be much more excited about shorting um when we get below this ascending trend. Okay? And that'll probably take a few days. It might take until sometime next week to see that.

[00:08:56]All right. Now, it doesn't mean we're just going to go lower because we we you know, we break that trend, but that's certainly something we want to pay attention to. It's typically a a validation, so to speak, that we're we're reversing the trend. Right now, we're still in this tentative transition, and often times, you want to be pretty careful taking a lot of trades in these cases. Unfortunately, we've had a lot of transitions recently with Bitcoin, so it's difficult to say. Uh especially with that massive uh resistance at 80,000. That could be the new support. We're going to go ahead and find out obviously soon if that happens.

[00:09:25]But why don't you comment below? Let me know your thoughts here. Love to hear it. Thanks again for being awesome part of my life. Let's take a look at some altcoins next. Quick heads up to our traders. We got a 15% discount on trading fees if you use my link to register through Bit Unix. Links down below in the description. All right, folks. Just before we look at Ethereum, I want to kind of preface and let you know that we are pretty well overextended leading into this weekend.

[00:09:45]So, I'm not saying we're going to bounce or capitulate because of that. Just know there's probably going to be some consolidation before the next leg down if there is one uh based on that metric.

[00:09:52]But, we have lost our our local range point of control. Uh this 2300 range is basically a important level. So, I personally am keeping my short position open with with ETH. We secured some profits in the uh 2,300 range before that support level broke. But my next target is the 25 sorry 2250 to 2200 range. I'll talk more about that here in a minute. But the overall circumstances we're losing all these moving averages here on the 4hour time frame. It's never truly a great sign. Uh 4hour time frame is one thing. Looking at the hourly here though is kind of another. Let's quickly just double check the side by side. Uh we can see that ETH is underperforming versus Bitcoin still. Uh we identified this when we took our short two days ago, but at this point here definitely looking like it wants to continue lower.

[00:10:34]But, you know, a lot of times when you see these overextensions, the price action will tend to um it'll give you like a a false bounce or or short-term uh deadcap bounce. So, we may see a push back towards this $2,300 range. If so, I wouldn't get too ahead of yourself and try to consider taking a long really depends on Bitcoin, honestly. I think a Bitcoin can hold 80,000 this weekend.

[00:10:55]Perhaps different story alto together, but uh we really don't know until Sunday. Sunday is really like the big catalyst in most cases uh when we see CME futures open. Having said that, short delta shifted from 6 billion in the green to 8 billion in the red in less than 48 hours. So this coin belly flopped pretty hard here recently, sweeping majority of all that liquidation at 2,300. We did identify that yesterday and the day before. And it's one of those things where you just kind of want to make sure that you understand that, you know, liquidation has a t has kind of a target on its back in most cases, right? um while it's not always targeted, it it is when there's a trend shift and uh that that trend reversal which we've seen here. Having said all that, 2250 is that last little area of liquidation. So, we may see one more leg down before the next pivot. And the next pivot may not be like a a major one, right? So, we'll take a look at the daily. It could very well just be a quick little uh quick little shift or a bounce, right? So, let's quickly identify here as well that we are looking at somewhat of a of a rising.

[00:11:54]this no not a rising this is more of like a uh a bullish rectangle pattern.

[00:11:58]So a lot of times the price will continue to consolidate like this and go higher, right? So it's all the more reason why, you know, you want to treat 2250 with respect. We can see on the daily time frame 2250 still has yet to to lose, right? So for the most part, we want to presume 2250 will be that pivot point and the price will bounce from there. Okay, so another reason why I'm kind of considering or I have a limit order rather set for that 2250 range. So that's kind of just my thoughts here on ETH. I'd love to hear yours. Comment below if you get a chance and we'll take another look at this here later in the weekend. All right, folks. Quick look here at Salana. Quickly understanding kind of where we're at here. Salana is holding a lot stronger than most coins right now. So, I do not want you to put your bearish hats on just yet. I think it's important to recognize that um this lower time frames are looking a lot better than most altcoins right now. So, uh obviously we take a look here. Hold on. Let's let's get the right chart pulled up on the guy here. Salana. Boop.

[00:12:49]All right. When we look on the right hand side, we want to recognize here that, you know, Bitcoin pulling back.

[00:12:53]Salana barely pulled back, right? So with what a pretty significant lower high lower low pattern, Salena's already broken that pattern. Okay. So to me that shows a lot of strength of this coin and that 90 plus seems much more realistic.

[00:13:07]It really depends on if Bitcoin loses 79,000 though or not. That's me personally thinking that because there's a lot to lose here on on Salana with that lower range of 82 to 87. So that liquidation alone makes me very very curious or more so like apprehensive because just the way that this coin is manipulated. So is you know XRP and a handful of other you know ETF traded coins. It's one of those situations where this coin is looking way more bullish than it should right now. Once more a lot of it depends on the current circumstance there. But generally speaking Salana has an agenda and we don't really know what that agenda is until it's too late. But liquidation in most cases is that firm indication there. So to me personally, if we see Bitcoin go sideways and Salana continue to pump, then that might be a different story. But if we kind of see Salana underperforming versus Bitcoin starting to pair with it, then that's uh you know, consideration for a short because there's a lot of a lot of profit to be said to the downside. Anyways, open interest is heavy between 90 and 87. So kind of the tight range that we're working within and liquidation delta is uh essentially in one of those positions right now where it's very high. It's overextended. So most cases you will see that reverse itself but once more this is a strong continuation pattern. Good chance we do break to the upside based on you know lower time frame convergences. So Salana is tentatively bullish here. I just uh just want to you recommend caution here when you taking a taking a long into resistance. It's generally not the strongest case. Yes, we had a good week here recently that proved otherwise. But it's rare for breakout trades to be successful in the current market we're in. Okay. So just be mindful of that. set a stop loss if you're going to be taking a a breakout trade to the upside here because there's there's a lot more reasons why this lower range should get hit first before the price goes anywhere based on just you know what we've seen here recently or just common trends in crypto right so just something to be paying attention to make sure you check that out and uh let's go ahead and take a look at the next one all right folks quick look here at Sooie this one's pretty straightforward it's looking pretty bullish on the lower time frames but also significantly pulling back when it does right and that's pretty much part for the course if you could put into a nutshell Well, how suie performs is a volatile up and down, right? We can see a swift recovery here. Once it found its bottom, obviously once Bitcoin essentially bottomed out here recently, at least for the moment. So, hypothetically, Bitcoin goes sideways andor up, then Sue will probably pump and break its local high range. Between now and then, we got to respect the fact that there's probably a lot of liquidation to the downside, which there is in the low 90 range. Not proposing we're going to see that right away, but Bitcoin trends towards 78 or just say 77,000. It's a distinct probability. So, just be ready to hit that reverse button on this coin. It's just one of those coins that's extremely volatile. Uh 94 cents to 104 is essentially that range of open interest. So, that's kind of the current range that Sooie is in, right?

[00:15:52]So, for the most part, we got our point of control at 94 cents here and we got, you know, 104 is a local range high. So, we're going to see some of this here moving forward for Suie. I think breaking that range is going to require Bitcoin to go up this weekend. If it doesn't go up, then we're going to go ahead and uh probably see some sideways and down from from Suie. But for the most part, there's nothing really amazing here. Nothing super telling that we're going to go higher or lower. There is more convergence on the lower time frames. So my indication here, or sorry, the my inclination rather would be to lean more towards a long versus a short.

[00:16:24]It's just hard to justify taking a long into this resistance range that has only been tested twice and Bitcoin looks like it wants to go lower, right? So, h me personally, I would sit this one out. Uh if you're going to air on the side of caution, longs are slightly safer right now in this coin just based on, you know, a lot of confirming factors to the upside. It just feels really weird to take a long and to once again resistance specifically at $1. So, if we get more consolidation above $1, Bitcoin looks like it's going to recover. Different story altogether. Between now and then, uh I would trade cautiously with this coin. It's looking pretty volatile. All right, folks. Quick look here at XRP.

[00:16:58]just kind of understanding uh support and resistance zones and how well or poorly this coin is performing versus Bitcoin. And the truth is when you look at XRP, it's really really struggling versus Bitcoin. Pretty much a 1:1 ratio in a lot of ways. You know, very very similar patterns here. So there's not much to really note there. So unless the backend data is like super compelling in either direction, we want to presume it's going to move with Bitcoin, which right now Bitcoin's testing its support range at 80,000, more likely than not going to go lower based on multiple time frame divergences. If we look at XRP 2 here as well, there's just a ton of liquidation down as low as 136. Uh that in addition to liquidation delta shifting bearish and just kind of being in our last range of support here for open interest, I don't really love what I see here for this coin. Now, when it comes to liquidation, just kind of once again recognize here this is roughly the area of liquidation for XRP. So, I don't think that we're going to see like, you know, straight down from XRP, but I do think if Bitcoin were to hit its $78,000 uh range, which we can see reflected here, it's lower liquidation, then there's a strong chance that we're going to see something similar for XRP, which is again this lower range of about 136.

[00:18:04]So, uh it seems more likely we're going to go lower at least to sweep these lower lower ranges. But once more, for the most part, 4hour time frame, unlike most altcoins, we're seeing significant divergence here. We lost 50 in the RSI and um while we should bounce soon cuz we're pretty well overextended, I think the bounce will be shortterm or shortlived. Maybe a fair value gap fill at 140 and back down or better case scenario, the price just keeps going down and bounces off 136. Either way, the tight range of 136 to 140 makes more sense. Uh and I would expect uh you know, not too much from this coin this weekend considering, you know, Bitcoin is probably shaping up to be pretty dead this weekend. It's far too early to tell, but usually when you see a pretty big sell-off leading into a weekend, there's not really a whole heck of a lot that happens. So, we'll pay close attention to this. Obviously, make sure if you want to become a better trader, you join us over at cryptocash.te is a site link down below. Congrats to our community members here for some nice profits on our short position for ETH at about 41%. Hope you have a great rest of day. We'll see you the next one. Take care.