James Webb Confirms Asteroid 2024 YR4 Is Likely to Hit the Earth — The Earth's sky will Light Up

[00:00:00]Now, an asteroid that was spotted late last year by [music] space scientists is being carefully tracked.

[00:00:07]Scientists are trying to work out whether there's a chance of it hitting the Earth, which could happen eight years from now.

[00:00:16]>> Astronomers have been closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, the newly discovered near-Earth object that has sparked concern due to its potential impact risk in 2032.

[00:00:28]While the chances of collision are still being calculated, new data has refined its trajectory. So, what do we know so far? Here are all the latest updates you need to know about this potential city killer.

[00:00:41]It's going to be quick and to the [music] point.

[00:00:44]Currently, the asteroid is over 30 million miles or 48 million kilometers from Earth and drifting farther away as tracked by various ground-based telescopes.

[00:00:54]It should remain visible until early April before disappearing from our sight as it continues its orbit around the Sun.

[00:01:02]However, if 2024 YR4 disappears before space agencies can rule out an impact risk, it will stay on the risk list until it reappears in June 2028. [music] Current orbital estimates indicate the asteroid returns to Earth's vicinity every four years, but it poses no threat in 2028.

[00:01:23]Recent observations suggest that the asteroid is about 150 ft or 50 m wide, comparable to the length of a commercial airliner or the height of a 15-story building.

[00:01:35]However, we cannot definitely tell what its actual size is. And that's why determining it is crucial for astronomers to assess the potential risks if 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth.

[00:01:49]If the asteroid turns out to be on the large end of its estimated size range, >> [music] >> the impact could produce blast damage as far as 31 miles or 50 km from the impact site.

[00:02:00]Since its discovery, the asteroid's size estimate has changed very little, despite multiple observations with various telescopes, as it can only be studied through the sunlight it reflects.

[00:02:12]This reflected light is used to determine [music] its size, but since we have very limited time to gather crucial information about the asteroid before it leaves our sight, NASA is going to use the James Webb Telescope to gather data on the size of the asteroid.

[00:02:28]The Webb Telescope will begin observations of 2024 YR4 in early March. And since it sees the universe in infrared light, it will be able to measure the heat reflected by the asteroid and provide a much more accurate size estimate.

[00:02:44]In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 hits the Earth in 2032, it would impact at a high velocity, roughly 17 km/s, which is about 38,000 mph.

[00:02:59]When first detected, it had a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth, equivalent to a 1 in 83 probability of collision in 2032. [music] As per the latest update from NASA, the agency estimates a 3.1% chance of the asteroid impacting Earth in 2032, equivalent to odds of 1 in 32.

[00:03:22]The probability has risen from 2.6% within the past 24 hours.

[00:03:27]However, scientists believe that as more observations come in, this information is subject to change.

[00:03:34]With the current data astronomers have on the asteroid, they estimate not just one possibility for impact in 2032, but seven possibilities between 2032 and 2079, with the first possible impact date being December [music] 22nd, 2032.

[00:03:52]Recent calculations indicate that the asteroid has a 0.3% chance of striking the moon.

[00:03:58]Current estimates suggest such an impact could release energy exceeding 340 Hiroshima bombs and would likely be visible from Earth.

[00:04:08]Additionally, if this occurs, some ejected material could reach Earth, though it is not expected to pose a major threat.

[00:04:16]China has begun assembling a planetary defense team to address the threat of 2024 YR4, as the chances of a potential impact are in 7 years.

[00:04:27]>> [music] >> The country aims to test its conceptual plan, set for around 2030, that would observe an asteroid and then impact it with a spacecraft to alter its trajectory, much like NASA's DART mission.

[00:04:40]While the chances of the asteroid striking Earth are slim, [music] current calculations project a potential impact zone spanning northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, Southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of Africa.

[00:04:55]As of now, the risk corridor shows that the countries that could be affected include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. [music] However, as astronomers gather more data, these projections may change.

[00:05:15]Now, [music] 2024 YR4 isn't massive enough to cause an extinction-level event or global catastrophe. [music] It may not be the world-ending apocalypse depicted in the Netflix movie Don't Look Up, but it could be locally destructive, depending on where it hits.

[00:05:33]The impact could be comparable to the 1908 Tunguska event, where a powerful explosion, estimated between 3 and 50 megatons, occurred over Siberia, flattening [snorts] approximately 80 million trees across 830 [music] square miles of forest.

[00:05:50]Scientists, however, believe that the observation of the asteroid is still [music] in its early days and that more telescopic data will most likely lead to a reassignment of its Torino scale value to level zero.

[00:06:03]In fact, most newly listed asteroids on the Torino scale initially show a rising impact probability as observations refine their paths until the risk drops to zero.

[00:06:13]The same is likely for asteroid 2024 YR4.

[00:06:18]At the moment, the asteroid is exceedingly faint at magnitude 23 and it is expected to continue to dim throughout February until it leaves our view.

[00:06:28]What if future observations confirm that asteroid 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with Earth on December 22nd, 2032?

[00:06:38]First, the potential impact is still years away. Plus, we've already tested our ability to deflect an asteroid.

[00:06:44][music] In 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test successfully [music] struck Dimorphos, a moon of an asteroid, demonstrating planetary defense in action.

[00:06:56]Notably, Dimorphos was much larger than 2024 YR4, >> [music] >> measuring 525 ft across. So, if 2024 YR4 does pose a threat, >> [music] >> we're at least somewhat prepared.

[00:07:11]While current estimates suggest a slight chance of impact, there's no need to panic. Future observations will provide a much clearer picture.

[00:07:19]Next month, the James Webb Space Telescope will gather new data and in 2028, radar tracking will refine our understanding of the asteroid's path.

[00:07:29]With these insights, [music] scientists expect to confirm that 2024 YR4 [music] will ultimately fly past Earth by a wide margin.

[00:07:39]Until then, continued monitoring ensures that we stay prepared.

[00:07:44]But for now, >> [music] >> this remains a case of scientific curiosity rather than an imminent danger.

[00:07:50]We're tracking every new development from NASA's latest calculations to upcoming observations that will [music] give us a clearer picture of its trajectory.

[00:07:59]As scientists gather more data, we'll be here to break it all down for you, fast, [music] accurate, and to the point.

[00:08:06]Astronomers using a new analysis of James Webb Space Telescope images >> [music] >> have discovered a surprisingly large number of small main belt asteroids.

[00:08:16]This discovery could alter estimates of Earth's impact rates from objects ranging in size from a house to a stadium.

[00:08:24]While calling something the size of a stadium might seem massive, but in the vastness of our solar system, it's merely a grain of sand.

[00:08:33]But that's not all though.

[00:08:34]The Webb Telescope also focused its attention on a mysterious asteroid-comet [music] hybrid lurking past Jupiter, and its properties are unlike anything we have ever seen before.

[00:08:46]A new analysis of archival Webb Telescope data has revealed an unexpectedly large population of asteroids ever seen in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

[00:08:57]Just a decade ago, an asteroid only tens of meters wide caught everyone off guard when it exploded over a Russian city, unleashing energy 30 times greater than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

[00:09:11]The newly discovered asteroids, however, range from the size of a bus to several stadiums.

[00:09:17]>> [music] >> Small compared to the colossal space rock that caused the dinosaurs extinction, >> [music] >> yet still capable of delivering a powerful impact.

[00:09:26]These asteroids strike Earth 10,000 times more often than their larger counterparts, but their small size makes them difficult for surveys to detect early.

[00:09:35]A team of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology made this discovery by repurposing Webb's observations of the TRAPPIST-1 star, and while doing so, uncovered a population of small asteroids in our asteroid belt.

[00:09:50]I know what you are thinking. Do these newly discovered space rocks pose a threat to Earth?

[00:09:55]Well, larger main belt asteroids orbiting between Mars and Jupiter typically stay in stable paths. In contrast, smaller ones are more often nudged by gravitational forces, [music] potentially sending them into the inner solar system as potential impact threats.

[00:10:12]The discovery of at least five times more small objects in the main belt than anticipated may influence estimates of how often such impacts occur.

[00:10:22]JWST is particularly good at finding asteroids because they're much brighter at infrared wavelengths. And these asteroid findings fill a crucial gap in understanding the origins of meteorites and larger asteroids that could pose a threat to Earth.

[00:10:38]According to the new study, future JWST observations will target 15 to 20 distant stars for at least 500 hours, potentially uncovering thousands more small asteroids in our solar system.

[00:10:52]This will surely help put our planetary defense in a much better place.

[00:10:56]What do you guys think?

[00:10:58]Let me know in the comments below.

[00:11:00]Meanwhile, the James Webb Telescope has turned its focus to a peculiar space rock located between Jupiter and Neptune.

[00:11:08]This strange centaur, known as 2060 [music] Chiron, exhibits characteristics of both comets and asteroids.

[00:11:16]Chiron orbits the sun about once every 50 years, traveling in an oblong loop in the region between Jupiter and Neptune.

[00:11:24]>> The team found carbon dioxide and methane gases in cloud of gas and dust around the nucleus.

[00:11:31]>> [music] >> Astronomers also detected water ice and lightweight carbon-containing molecules like ethane and propane for the first time on a Centaur. [music] "These results are like nothing we've seen before," study co-author Charles Shambo said in a statement. [music] "Detecting gas come around objects as far away from the Sun as Chiron is very challenging, but JWST has made it accessible."

[00:11:54]"Objects like Chiron haven't changed much since the solar system first formed, so observing how they interact could help scientists better understand the early solar system," said [music] another scientist.

[00:12:06]However, Chiron, like all Centaurs, is currently in a transitional state, and its ultimate fate will unfold over the next million years. It may either be drawn back into the inner solar system by Jupiter's gravitational influence, transforming into a Jupiter family comet with an orbital period of less than 20 years, or it could be ejected back into the Kuiper Belt, cast out by the gatekeeper Jupiter.

[00:12:31]While the outcome remains uncertain, much like its namesake from Greek mythology, its future rests in the hands of the universe.

[00:12:42]>> [music] [music]