What you should expect this hurricane season in 2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-20

[00:00:03]The 2026 hurricane season is one of uncertainty.

[00:00:07]>> The big question is, you know, how strong is the El Niño going to be? How fast is it going to come on? Its impact likely driven by the arrival of El Niño.

[00:00:16]These effects may only be magnified. Our team of meteorologists gets you ready for the storms. All it takes is one. We take a deep dive into how we measure hurricanes and whether it's time for a drastic change. So, why are we using a scale that only accounts for like 10% of fatalities? See how researchers are putting building materials to the test.

[00:00:40]>> people to survive storms, but we also realize that people want their homes to survive. Tour a unique home designed and built to withstand a storm's strength.

[00:00:50]>> We want [music] to make sure that these houses last generations. And find out what you should do right now to prepare for the next storm's arrival. So, you're going to want to start by stocking disaster supplies while they're still available.

[00:01:07]This is Superstorms, the [music] 2026 hurricane season.

[00:01:13]Hello and welcome to this look at the 2026 hurricane season. I'm WJLA chief meteorologist Veronica Johnson. Last year was the first time in a decade not a single hurricane made landfall in the United States. In fact, Sean Tull was the only tropical storm to strike the US bringing excessive rain and flooding to North Carolina.

[00:01:37]Well, still the overall season fell within the predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes. So, what does that mean for this season? Well, the experts at Colorado State University think that this year will be slightly below average. In fact, they're forecasting 13 named storms with six hurricanes and two major hurricanes or category three or stronger. They also forecast a below average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the US coastline and in the Caribbean. The biggest reason for these projections is the expected arrival of a super El Nino.

[00:02:18]Colorado State research scientist Philip Klotzbach explains [music] how their team came up with this forecast.

[00:02:25]You know, of the last 10 hurricane seasons nine have been either above normal or considered hyperactive by NOAA. So, people are like, "Oh, you're forecasting average above average season every year." I'm like, "Well, they've been all above so that what we do." Um, but this year, you know, because of what we think is going to be a moderate to strong [music] El Nino, we are forecasting a slightly below normal season.

[00:02:46]Um, and so the big question is, you know, how strong is the El Nino going to be? How [music] fast is it going to come on? And so that has pretty significant impacts as to kind of how the season is going to play [music] out. A stronger El Nino that comes on faster is probably going to have more of an impact. And it's really due to changes in [music] that vertical wind shear. So, that change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. Too much shear is good for us but bad for the hurricane. So, kind of remains to be seen exactly [music] when this El Nino comes on, how fast it comes on, and then kind of what impacts it has on that vertical wind shear.

[00:03:17]There is still some uncertainty [music] because right now we've had a pretty strong winds blowing across the Pacific that are helping to transport warm water from the western Pacific towards the eastern which is really what kind of what kicks [music] off an El Nino. But, do those strong winds persist? Do those dissipate? It still kind of remains to be seen. If those were [music] say to weaken substantially, um, potentially even flip back to more robust winds blowing [music] out of the east what we call the trade winds, that could potentially cause the El Nino to not be as strong. So, just because models are generally very aggressive doesn't necessarily mean that what's going to occur.

[00:03:48]So, what exactly is El Nino? We asked meteorologist John Gum to help us better understand the climate pattern, how it forms, and how it impacts hurricane season.

[00:04:01]Well, this hurricane season could be dominated by the presence of El Nino, and it could even be what we call a super El Nino, which is a very strong El Nino. But, to understand what El Nino is, let's first look at La Nina, the opposite of El Nino. Trade winds, of course, blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean. And in certain years, those trade winds are extra strong, so they push all of the warm water over toward Asia. That warm water piles up out there, but it allows cooler water to upwell from the bottom of the ocean up to the surface off the coast of South America. That in turn flips the weather pattern around, so out in the eastern Pacific, we tend to get fewer hurricanes due to really strong vertical wind shear that doesn't allow those storms to develop. But, the opposite holds true in the Caribbean and in the Atlantic, where we tend to get more hurricanes due to weaker vertical wind shear and less atmospheric instability. Well, during El Nino, it is completely the opposite.

[00:05:06]Those trade winds are much weaker, and because those trade winds are weaker, we tend to get warm water piling up off the coast of South America. And as that happens, well, we start to see more in the way of hurricane activity out in the eastern Pacific, and less in the way of hurricane activity in the Caribbean and in the Atlantic. And if this is a super El Nino, these effects may only be magnified. So, we're going to watch this carefully as the hurricane season rolls on.

[00:05:37]By now, you're used to the Saffir-Simpson scale. It's how we rate hurricanes, from a category one to a monster category five with winds in excess of 157 mph. Now, there's a new push to rethink how hurricanes are measured and whether the current scale is enough. As Emily Grace explains, the possible scale shakeup is sparking debate among experts about what really helps people prepare.

[00:06:05]When a hurricane is approaching, most people look at one number.

[00:06:09]>> [music] >> The category. But some scientists say that number may be giving people the wrong idea about the real danger. The Saffir-Simpson scale ranks hurricanes from one to five based only on wind [music] speed, even though wind isn't what causes most deaths. So, why are we using a scale that only accounts for like 10% of fatalities? University of South Florida researcher Dr. Jennifer Collins studies how people respond to hurricane risk >> [music] >> and says too many people treat the category as the full picture. That can lead to dangerous decisions, especially when a storm's category doesn't match its impacts.

[00:06:46]She points to Hurricane Florence, it weakened from a category 4 to a category 1 before making landfall in the Carolinas, >> [music] >> but the flooding it brought was devastating. With our scale, we would have actually called that a cat 5 on landfall, not a cat 1. Collins is proposing a new approach. An enhanced [music] hurricane scale that factors in multiple hazards at once. So, our scale [music] takes into account wind, storm surge, and rainfall, the main hazards [music] from the hurricane. Instead of focusing on a single number tied only to wind, her model combines those threats into one overall category or breaks them out individually to give people a clearer picture of what's coming.

[00:07:28]>> [music] >> So, we can have individual categories or we can have a combined category for the hurricanes. She says [music] it's designed to work in real time. As soon as those forecasts are out on storm [music] surge, on rainfall, and wind, we're able to put it into our scale and But not everyone is convinced a [music] new scale is the solution. NOAA social scientist Dr. Kim Klockow Mcclain says the challenge goes beyond any single number. Hurricanes are one of the more difficult ones to communicate well, and it's [music] because they're multi-hazard. People don't just need to know a storm is dangerous, they need to understand what it means for [music] them. So, it's not just enough to know a hurricane could be bad, but they know that they're susceptible, [music] that really hits home when they really understand that it could be them. Inside the National Hurricane Center, there's even more skepticism about relying on scales at all. Are we putting [music] too much emphasis on scales? Yes.

[00:08:27]Yes.

[00:08:28]>> [music] >> Deputy Director Jamie Rhome says scales made sense decades ago when there were fewer ways to communicate risk. You didn't have all these modern visualization [music] tools. You didn't have AI.

[00:08:40]Communicating the impact of a storm was exceedingly difficult. So, scales worked. They were simple, [music] they were easy to transmit. But today, people have access to far more detailed, local information. [music] Two-dimensional analysis of the wind, the ability to zoom in and see what the impacts might be in your community, a scale [music] throws all of that information out the door. So, while the debate continues over whether the scale itself needs to change, experts on all sides agree on one thing: understanding the full risk, not just [music] the category, is essential when a storm is on the way.

[00:09:16]Coming up on Superstorms, what you should be doing right now to prepare for the next big storm, and we'll take you inside a facility where building materials are put to the test. Can they stand up to the hurricane's power?

[00:09:38]>> [music] >> Try not to focus so much on the numbers, because it really doesn't matter how many storms we have. What matters is how many storms impact you. Monitor the overall patterns. Where does the high sit up? Where do steering currents go?

[00:09:50]Where do low pressures continue to develop? Having an overall awareness of what's happening is what's going to make the difference, not what's on a chart six months out.

[00:10:00]If a hurricane or a tropical storm targets your community, what you do now can make all the difference before, during, and after the storm. As the Boy Scouts say, be prepared. But preparation isn't something you do last minute, because as Florida meteorologist Greg Rule shows us, waiting too long can put lives and property at serious risk. So, you're going to want to start by stocking disaster supplies while they're still available. You'll want up to about a week of supplies of non-perishable food and water for every person in your household. Roughly about 3 gallons of water per person per day. And don't forget about your pets. Also, have a battery-powered weather radio in case power and or cell service goes out. Keep important documents and some cash protected in a sealed waterproof container.

[00:10:56]And also, prepare your home now. Trim the trees, clear loose debris, and make a plan to protect your windows. Use shutters, not duct tape. And know your flood risk. Learn how to properly use sandbags and move valuables out of low-lying areas. You're going to want to take photos for insurance, and if you live in a mobile home, line up a safer shelter ahead of time.

[00:11:20]Now is also the time to plan an evacuation route. Know your zone. Know where you'd go, and know how to get there. Obviously, you don't need to travel hundreds of miles just out of harm's way. So, write down your hurricane evacuation plan and share it with your family. Also, if you own a boat, make a plan now. Decide whether you'll keep it in the water, you'll trailer it, or maybe even dry dock it.

[00:11:45]But, preparing now can save you time, stress, and money later down the road.

[00:11:52]Homeowners aren't the only ones preparing for hurricane season. Right now, researchers are getting ready for storms of the future, working to design stronger, safer materials that can stand up to a hurricane's power. Meteorologist Sonya Stephens takes us inside a hurricane proving ground in South Carolina where those innovations are put to the test.

[00:12:14]This state-of-the-art research facility is located in Chester County. Now, here is the test chamber. You can see 105 fans. It's six stories tall, creates winds up to 130 mph, and we're talking to 350 horsepower. All of that is used in experiments on wind, wind-driven rain, wind-driven hail, and even wildfires. We're one of the only facilities in the entire country that can actually test at full scale. So, that means we have full one- and two-story residential homes and full-size commercial buildings, and we can actually replicate real-life winds, real-life storm scenarios, and we can see how the wind moves and pulls and pushes on that building. But, all this research requires lots of buildings.

[00:13:00]Sometimes we burn a building down or blow it over every every week, every month, lots of times throughout the year. So, we have our own construction teams here on site, uh construction professionals that build things from the ground up.

[00:13:13]>> Why do all this? To minimize loss and disruption. Historically, uh homes and businesses in the United States are built to uh account for life safety, which means that you can be in a the building and you can survive the storm.

[00:13:26]That's fantastic. We want people to survive storms, but we also realize that people want their homes to survive.

[00:13:32]>> What do they test for hurricanes? We want to know what is the best roofing material to put on your house, what types of windows should you have on your house to help them stand up to flying debris.

[00:13:43]>> This demo is going to send a 2 by 4 at roughly 35 mph into the window. So, it's going to show you the importance of using impact-rated windows, uh basically testing against flying debris, and also showing why you should not be standing near windows during storms.

[00:14:04]3 2 1 And this was just a low-impact demo, one 2 by 4, one piece of flying debris. And with roughly 35 mph winds, again, you're going to get much stronger winds than those with straight-line winds out of thunderstorms or a tropical system. A 2 by 4 was also sent into this window at roughly 35 mph. Now, this is an impact-rated window. So, while it's broken, it is all still in one piece, so it's going to eliminate flying glass as well as eliminating wind pressures from getting into the rest of the house.

[00:14:45]Up next, step inside a one-of-a-kind home built to take on a hurricane and win.

[00:14:57]>> [music] >> We now know that more than half of the people that die in a hurricane actually drown because of excessive rainfall flooding. So, you have to take the rain threat and the flooding threat very, very seriously. As we always say, you hide from the wind, but you have to run from the water. Rising hurricane intensity and frequency are putting coastal homes at risk. Some people are now embracing innovative storm-resilient designs to protect their properties against powerful forces. Emily Grace got a rare tour of a home that's ready to go against the wind.

[00:15:33]Like many Charleston natives, Jimmy and Darlene Rawls remember Hurricane Hugo like it was yesterday. In 1989, Darlene, my wife, and I lived on Sullivan's [music] Island, which was right where the eye went across. The Category 4 hurricane caused massive damage along South Carolina's [music] coastline. The impacts were felt for months. Not having clean water to take a shower, not having water to drink, not having power, [music] not having air conditioning or refrigeration, that's a big deal.

[00:16:06]Just being here watching different structures being through, you know, the small Category 1s that have come through, uh taught us a lot of lessons. [music] 35 years later, they've applied those lessons to create a home not only built to withstand the next major hurricane, but to [music] provide comfort in the aftermath.

[00:16:28]Cusabo Island, a short boat ride from the mainland and completely [music] off the grid, is where Jimmy and Darlene have built their hurricane-resilient home. It's a mile and a quarter long and about 50 acres [music] of highland.

[00:16:42]The only way you get here is by boat.

[00:16:43]The 1,000-sq-ft Deltec round home is powered by solar panels.

[00:16:50]Uh all the power from the roof comes down and into the inverter, then into the batteries.

[00:16:55]How do you get running water out here?

[00:16:57]Uh that's a whole different story. It's all rainwater.

[00:17:00]It's um purified rainwater. Deltec's coastal homes are all made in a warehouse in Asheville, North Carolina.

[00:17:07]Dealing with the angles and things takes experience [music] and patience that you don't need with a square house.

[00:17:14]But the end result is totally unique. Unique indeed, but why round? So, it's reducing the pressure on the home, so less force is going on to the home during a high wind event, and it's also really good at distributing the load throughout the home. So, there's not one area where it's like really high impact and >> [music] >> areas for failure.

[00:17:34]In addition to shape, they also focus on materials and connections. Lumber that is twice as strong as your conventional construction.

[00:17:42]And and our hardware that we're using is typically twice as strong as your typical tie that you would find holding [music] a roof to a wall in a normal place. We're using a two-leg strap that goes over the truss and nails into this high-strength [music] lumber. So, we like to overkill things a lot and it's um you know, it's by design. We want to make sure that these houses last generations.

[00:18:03]Jimmy and Darlene have zero regrets.

[00:18:06]The joy that we get from it has been better than we expected.

[00:18:11]Do you think [music] next time there's a hurricane here in Charleston, you're going to flee to your >> [music] >> home out here on this island?

[00:18:18]If it's a bad enough storm, this is a bad place to be.

[00:18:21]But, I'll take my boat and I'll come back here and have a nice hopefully shower and refrigeration and all that while I'm cleaning up while everybody else over there doesn't have power.

[00:18:45]>> [music] >> Unfortunately, there's a lot of misinformation about hurricanes.

[00:18:51]Meteorologist Jennifer Collins looks at some of these myths and separates fact from fiction. Seasonal outlook numbers tell you how dangerous hurricane season will be. Fewer storms mean a safer season. More storms always means more US impacts. That's not necessarily true.

[00:19:08]Landfall is what matters. It only It one storm hitting the US to make it a destructive season. In 1992, only seven storms formed. One of those was Hurricane Andrew, which impacted South Florida as a category five storm.

[00:19:22]Meanwhile, some very active seasons produce little or no US landfall. The next common myth is that a hurricane threat is only about wind speed. Here's the fact. Large or slow-moving storms can produce storm surge, major flooding, tornadoes, and hazardous marine conditions, even without major hurricane winds. This goes along with the next myth. Living inland means there is less risk from tropical storms and hurricanes. Inland areas may not get direct impacts from storm surge, but from flooding and tornadoes. Slow-moving storms can produce heavy rainfall causing street and river flooding well away from the coast in the center of a storm. The bottom line, hurricanes don't need big seasonal numbers or major wind ratings to cause major damage. One storm is all it takes. Have a plan and prepare every season.

[00:20:11]And that's the message that we want you to take away. If you live anywhere storms can strike, the time to prepare is now. Hurricanes are unpredictable.

[00:20:21]They can push far inland like Colleen or stall for days unleashing relentless amounts of rain like Harvey in 2017. You can't control the storm, but you can control how ready you are for it.

[00:20:34]Prepare today and you'll be in a far better position when the storm arrives.

[00:20:39]I'm Chief Meteorologist Ron Johnson.

[00:20:41]Thanks for watching.