The Call On Aviation | Q1FY27 Indicates Demand Challenges For IndiGo: PL Capital | CNBC TV18

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]For the time being, let's focus on InterGlobe Aviation. Dinesh Joshi, research analyst at PL Capital, joins us on the show. Hi Dinesh, good morning.

[00:00:07]Good to have you on the show. Well, InterGlobe Aviation came out with its numbers. There were very very challenges in the past quarter. So, give us your top two three point takeaways from the numbers first.

[00:00:23]>> Yeah.

[00:00:25]See, I think the first take was that there was a miss on the ASKM side with of about 3%. Their guidance was 10%, but I think after the Middle East crisis hit us in March, it was known that the miss will be there this time around. Secondly, I think the forex loss hit of about 4,200 crores. I mean, that also troubled the company in this particular quarter. And if I if I talk about their near-term guidance, I think the 1Q guidance of 3 to 4% growth in ASKM does kind of indicate some kind of challenges on the demand side. And also, if you look at the month of April, the domestic max growth is down by about 3% all. So, I think I think there are some near-term challenges as far as the overall demand environment is concerned. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:01:13]>> Mhm.

[00:01:14]Dinesh, Motilal Oswal, I was reading their note and they said the EBITDA ex of the forex was actually better than their own estimates.

[00:01:23]How would you look at the numbers ex of exceptional?

[00:01:26]And have you made any changes to your estimates?

[00:01:31]>> Right. So, ex of exceptional as I mentioned that [clears throat] the overall effects loss was about 4,200 crores. And if you adjust for that, the EBITDA is at about 6,200 crores. So, no doubt, I mean, I think on on that side ex of effects, they have done well. Even at the bottom line level, while the reported part was about or rather a loss was about 2,500 crores. If you adjust for the effects, the profit was at about 1,900 crores. But see, I I there are there are challenges in the near-term with respect to rupee and crude and we cannot deny that. So I think and even the ASK guidance as I mentioned is a bit soft at least for 1 Q and you are also going to see some kind of inflation on the cost side ex-fuel ex-forex by about mid to high single digit. So yeah, that's the overall reading.

[00:02:14]>> What's the your own rating on InterGlobe Aviation and the numbers for the full year?

[00:02:21]>> Right.

[00:02:23]So we maintain our whole view with a TP of about uh 4,700 odd. We are expecting a 5% ASK cager, but if you look at our bottom line growth for the next 2 years, we are relatively flat.

[00:02:35]>> Mhm.

[00:02:36]Okay. All right. What what will make you upgrade it from a hold?

[00:02:45]>> Uh see, I think the comfort on ASK. I mean, if I recollect properly earlier when I was there on your channel, we had highlighted some concerns on the ASK side, right? And now with the 3 to 4% guidance, it it does indicate that there are certain near term demand challenges, but I think one one positive point is with respect to their unit packs revenue guidance of mid-teens growth, which is expected to come in 1 Q. So I think I think some bit of a cost inflation on the crude side is covered by uh the the yield repricing that we have seen. But on the ASK side, if we see some kind of comfort come through, I think that will really help the operating leverage magnify. And if the crude and rupee kind of maybe settles down a bit, I think that flow through on the EBIT better.

[00:03:29]>> Okay. So Q1 ASK guidance has been given by the company at 3 to 4%. But assume as the quarter progresses, the Middle East crisis comes to an end, international operations show signs of recovery. And plus you know, there are new airports which are coming on stream. There is domestic travel. So suppose that ASK guidance for the full year the company by in 2 months comes out and says it's going to be 7 you know, high single digits kind of a revenue growth. Is that good enough uh for you? Because you are currently at 5%.

[00:04:01]>> All right. So, see a 2% difference uh might not make uh much of a a change in view, uh but but I think I think what can what can really help the company is is how how the yield repricing happens.

[00:04:15]Because I think the mid teams growth guidance that they have given on the brass side for one view definitely is slightly comforting and and it takes into account some bit of ETF inflation.

[00:04:25]So, I think a multitude of factors have to play out. The ASKM growth guidance needs to kind of up a bit. Uh the crude has to settle down. Uh the repricing scenario has to be much better. Then you're going to see that EBITDA growth come through. Because if you look at our numbers at this point in time on a 2-year basis, our EBITDA category is approximately about 4% odd.

[00:04:46]>> Okay. All right. Very quickly, Dinesh, you cover a lot of stocks from uh you know, aviation to hotels to I think uh Nazara as well.

[00:04:55]Uh from your universe, uh leave us with your top two picks.

[00:05:00]>> Uh sure. Uh so, I I think the two names that we like at current levels is uh Safari. I think uh this quarter they did a very good performance on the margin side. I think the EBITDA margin of 13% was definitely much better than our expectations and also the top line growth of 12% that they have reported.

[00:05:16]So, I think in the near term while there are challenges with respect to iron cost inflation, but I think the overall GM and the EBITDA margin performance in this quarter was definitely comforting.

[00:05:27]We are just building in a building in a 50 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion and the stock is at about 30 times. So, I think given how the crude volatility is which is impacting their margins in the near term which has led to a correction in the stock price, uh does it does offer a good entry point.

[00:05:42]So, that is one name. And a second I think PVR Uh, quarter they reported good set of numbers because of uh good performance from uh Durander and I think uh the the the balance sheet is now relatively in a much better shape with a net debt of about 1,600 crores. So, in a volatile business if you have the comfort on the balance sheet, I think I think that really helps and the cash flow situation of the company is also much better. The stock is trading at about 10 times 1-year forward pre-index EBITDA, which is at the lower end of their valuation. So, I think that is another name which we like. I think while 1Q will be a bit soft given the fact that not many movies have done well, but on the cash flow side and on the valuation side, there is definitely cushion in PVR.

[00:06:22]>> Okay, Safari and PVR. We'll keep an eye out on both those two. Janish, appreciate you joining in. Have a good remainder of the day.