A AMEAÇA QUÂNTICA AO BITCOIN: QUANTO DA OFERTA ESTÁ EXPOSTA?

[00:00:00]Cyberspace is a metaphorical idea uh which [music] is supposed to be the space where your consciousness is located.

[00:00:14][music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [ music] [ music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [ music] [music] [ music] [music] [music] [music ] [music] [music] Good afternoon, feminists and normal people in general. How are you all doing? Is everything alright here? All very well. I was giving it a little hydration, right? Because I'm very well hydrated.

[00:03:09]Well, we need to drink water because we 're just little plants with complicated emotions, right, guys? So, it's very important that we maintain a healthy lifestyle.

[00:03:19]So, it's a little water and two packs of cigarettes a day, and faith.

[00:03:23]Right? This is the diet of champions.

[00:03:26]Here we are again, another day of the bloody market booming, right?

[00:03:31]Thank God or not. Actually, I was really looking forward to going up today to pick up my shorts, because they did n't fit this week. I was a little upset, you know? Because I'm just on that longboard at Zash over there. Zash looks like he's making a double top wave here. And then we'll short as well, we'll hold the long position, and we'll make money, come what may. Alright, guys? Today we're going to do an on-chain analysis of Bitcoin. Well, depending on how you view the market, it's going to be good or bad, right? That's up to you. It's good for me.

[00:04:08]Why? Because I want to buy cheap things, I like paying a lot for things, and I like buying good quality stuff, right? So, we're expecting a drop in Bitcoin, at least until the end of the year. There's no sign of the market initiating a real upward trend right now, and it's not even showing any indication.

[00:04:29]Of course, right, guys?

[00:04:31]That's my analysis. Hey, just a reminder that I'm not here to get things right. If we get it right, that's a bonus, isn't it? But those who live on theories alone don't make money. So we read the scenario, we make our choices according to the scenario, and if it does n't work out, life goes on, we cry for about 15 minutes in the shower, and then, well, that's how it is, right?

[00:04:53]So, I'm going to ask you to like and subscribe to this humble channel, and also chat with me about what you think of the market, what your take is, because I also like to hear other people's opinions, because sometimes out of 30 opinions we form one that's better than the 30 we already have, right?

[00:05:14]Junta 30 creates a megazord of opinion and a damn good analysis. Uh, I'm going to apologize to you all because the lighting here is blown out. I really don't know what to do anymore because I'm a humanities major, you know? I didn't take a photography course, I didn't take a film course. Well, my job is to give opinions, right?

[00:05:34]Giving opinions and reading some books is difficult, is n't it? Yesterday I told you guys I was reading can, but I've given up again because I'm fed up with it. And so I'm reading. What am I reading there?

[00:05:50]Breaking the habit of being yourself, Dr. Joe expense. And that. Well, I'll be back to Kant in a bit, because I won't rest until I understand what this guy is trying to tell me, but I hope you all understand what I'm saying here, okay? And that's it. Good afternoon, Juan. Good afternoon. Hey everyone, here's the link to donate to the channel, okay?

[00:06:12]If you want. Hey, good afternoon, Junior. Yeah, guys, I think it made a... Wow, it made a really nice double top on Zash. It's a good place to grab a pair of shorts over there.

[00:06:27]I should have grabbed it up there, right?

[00:06:29]Let's cut to the chase now. It will be? [music] No, I don't think so. I'll let it go, I will, I'll let it go, I'll let it go, I'll let it go.

[00:06:38]Oh, I'm totally hooked on SpaceX, okay? I know I made a video here talking about the BingX IPO, etc., okay, guys? But for those who participated in the deal there, I wonder if you would sell it, okay? I would sell the token there, to anyone who participated in the airdrop, okay?

[00:07:01]Yeah, and I'm wearing shorts. Well, I didn't like some of the things they did there.

[00:07:06]They opened up a lot to retail. Retailers only mess things up with money, right? And no, I don't like it very much. Then, when the touch is more consolidated, then it's the "to no," right? That 's something to think about. Let's go [snoring] as we go, Junior. How's the weather in Ratanabá? Here in my country, and it's St. Catherine. Here in St. Catherine it's currently 18 degrees and it's partly cloudy, partly sunny. And then this light comes through a big window right in front of me, and that light ends up shining in my eyes. And if you close the window it's worse, because then nobody can see anything, right?

[00:07:51]Good afternoon, Barbarian. Good afternoon, Rodrigo.

[00:07:55]I'm feeling fit, I think I'll be able to walk 10 km today. My knee hurts and I haven't been able to eat anything since yesterday, but it's okay. Good afternoon, Bruno. All good?

[00:08:08]St. Ctherine is Rafael L, right? It's my imaginary city that's located here in St. Catherine. That's it, folks. Okay, let's go.

[00:08:18]Bitcoin is currently trading at 63.2510.

[00:08:24]Guys, my shorts are positioned exactly right, take note, take note. 64,202 and something.

[00:08:33]I'll confirm it for you now. Just a minute.

[00:08:37][snoring] 64 202 exactly. It's perfectly nailed. It reached 64,178. It almost caught on, didn't it? I even thought about opening a market there, but I wouldn't allow it, would I? Leave it, leave it. Wow, for the past few weeks we've had to choose between sleeping and stressing ourselves out. And I decided to go to sleep. Oh, you've got to be kidding me, man.

[00:09:15]My intercom is ringing. I have to go outside. Wait a minute.

[00:10:15]Yeah, folks, that's the good life, right?

[00:10:17]That's the good life, right?

[00:10:19]Well, every day my doorman comes by delivering the packages, and today he came to deliver them just when I had something to do.

[00:10:31]All day with nothing to do, man. Okay, wow, running away. It sucks.

[00:10:37]Hey, are you participating in any airdrops?

[00:10:38]No no. Let 's say 474 in my calculations, right? Keep in mind that I 'm a humanities person, I don't know how to do math.

[00:10:49]Damn. Wow, I went out there like a shot.

[00:10:54]Rafa, I see there are many buy orders and billions in the 55 range have become an insurmountable barrier. No, I would n't say insurmountable, okay? That's because what's there is... is n't a market structure, actually, right? There it is, there is the MVRV, okay? That's the average purchase value for most people, but we'll get to that later. I thought it was rando. How random.

[00:11:27]What would be a good price to buy Bitcoin if it reaches 55?

[00:11:34]So, guys, this is for those who are going to do DCA, okay? No, it's not a good purchase price, okay? Because Bitcoin is a business, you know, that's not for right now.

[00:11:44]Well, this whole Bitcoin thing, about getting rich with Bitcoin, about becoming the new world nobility, all that stuff is just a load of nonsense, okay folks? So, uh, today Bitcoin has become a trillion-dollar asset, right?

[00:12:05]So, it's very difficult for someone to make a fortune, okay? Unless you're going to invest a lot of money here, right? So, considering it as an asset to protect wealth against inflation, given all the parameters that Bitcoin provides, in my view, there wouldn't be a price that would be a good buying price. Either the good price to buy is the price you're going to pay, okay?

[00:12:39]Because it's an asset that will provide you with other characteristics besides capital appreciation, even though that happens, one way or another. But to say that you're going to become a king because you're buying 100 bucks worth of Bitcoin a month, no way.

[00:12:58]So, folks, do the DCA (Direct-to-Aid Purchase), buy, do the DCA, there's a little appreciation there, but the most important thing is that your money won't lose value, okay?

[00:13:09]Because, dude, 63,000 buys you R$100 a month, okay? So, how many years will it take you to make a million with this? Then we're really going to need some other things, right? What will we need?

[00:13:27]We'll need to keep working, right? We're going to need to keep building our pyramid schemes and selling our courses, right? The courses here on the channel, folks, they're free. You only pay for the delivery, which is 3,999 [laughs] for the delivery, man, we have to keep working, you know? We have to keep going, come on, we'll have to keep trading, we'll have to keep studying, because that's the way it is, nobody is going to retire with Bitcoin. Those who have retired are already retired, okay? It's over. And look, look how old I am, right? Oh, how old I am. You only pay for the internet. Yes, yes, that's it. When, when will the new nobility turn to go and live in Paraguay?

[00:14:10]Exactly. God forbid. Is there a strategy for determining how many BTCs are vulnerable to quantum computing? I think only the initial ones for 2012. The English CO. No, it's English. No, Glass Node published an article about that, okay? I'll bring it here.

[00:14:31]And what about the American nations, will they continue to rise? Probably, right?

[00:14:35]Probably for a while now, I don't remember exactly when they're pricing the haircut here, okay? But I think they're going up, they're being inflated, okay? This has happened before at certain points in the history of the economy.

[00:14:56]I'm even planning to talk more about this tomorrow, okay? Well, it's likely that the market, that stocks, will continue to rise at least until October, December, okay? Well, and then I think things are going to get really ugly, because there's nowhere left to run. There's nowhere left to run. You're telling me that this is rising organically, naturally, given the mess it's in, it's impossible. Au is either one thing or another.

[00:15:20]Someone is, someone is lying, someone is lying. I think My Cru Strategy's stock will multiply 1 to 20 times within 2 years.

[00:15:31]Jarbas, I would be very careful, okay? I would be very careful, especially when it comes to that. A person who is going to do something, uh uh, says they're not going to do that thing, okay? And then you do the thing, right? And there are a lot of people defending it. Then he says he won't do it again, okay? And then, in a little while, he'll show up, and then he'll do the thing he said he wouldn't do. That kind of person isn't trustworthy, okay?

[00:15:59]Especially someone who is in charge of a company like that.

[00:16:03]People, if you want, want, want capital appreciation, go to other things, go to other things.

[00:16:10]Well, buying a team on the stock market doesn't work. The American market is doing okay, right? Put on some shorts, a long one over there, do whatever you want. Good thing I didn't win the lottery, okay?

[00:16:19]Well, I didn't draw lots for the houses. Well, that type of asset doesn't work on the stock exchange. One, an asset, an asset that's similar to Microstrat over there, and that I've been following and that's doing a good job because there's another one, how should I put it?

[00:16:39]Well, there's another way to handle it there, there's a different structure. It's BTC time here at B3, right? B3 will also hold this awful 60, Rafa, because things are looking bad. It's 54.54.

[00:16:57]And what if you guys buy Bitcoin too, right? Please, buy some crypto, okay? For God's sake, stop buying this crap, Rafa, what do you think of a public employee with 200 Bitcoins in Paraguay?

[00:17:12]Flavor, taste, rich flavor. Hey, Blondie. Today is the World Cup and everyone's all messed up watching it. Ah, but that's their problem. That's his problem. Dude, my business is going to put on a show.

[00:17:23]I don't care about the audience. Let's go! I love you all there.

[00:17:26]Thank you very much. Rafas, I was thinking about you. Paçoquinha with Ruffos. No, the business now isn't peanut brittle with huffs and puffs, my dear. The business now is Pringles. Pringles. That potato, right?

[00:17:37]Pringles.

[00:17:39]You buy this one here. You can buy Pringles here. AND. And what about this? This here is a recipe for, uh, this here is sort of a recipe for, you know? Get up, stand up. Those little people who smoke there. So you take the Pringles can, you open it, you take some Pringles out, right? You eat it, you can give it to your dog, to your neighbor, you can fill it with rat poison and give it to that gossipy old neighbor of yours too, right? There you have it, for whoever is listening. Okay, so you take two bars of chocolate of your choice, you melt the chocolate bars and pour them into the Pringles can here with the chips already inside, okay?

[00:18:25]So, you put it in the freezer to freeze, then you take it out, you peel the Pringles, break it open, and eat the potato chips with the chocolate. I didn't do it myself, but I've seen a lot of my stoner friends doing it, you know? Uh, I wanted to, no, I have n't even been able to smell food since yesterday. It's, it's, it's difficult. Blonde, I lost 500 seats on the small plane today.

[00:18:49]He deserves to be sodomized. Yeah, I'm not going to, I'm not going to gamble because I lost fifty bucks yesterday, right? No, no little tiger. Mister Fortune. Oh, I forgot the name of the game. Wait a minute.

[00:19:01]I like this one here. Mr. Fortun, no casino.

[00:19:25]I'm going in here, okay, everyone? But it 's not for you to play, it's just to show you the game that I like.

[00:19:34]Come play! Where is your account located? Oh, [ __ ] it. I'm not going to show it either. That's a game I like. You don't like losing money, do you? Winning, winning, not so much.

[00:19:48][laughter] [laughter] I've come to tell you something. Esse esse esse es mi amigo Oscar. Oscar has no arms.

[00:20:08]Hey Reg, if you want to throw money away, go ahead, send it to Bruno, we'll split it later. [snoring] Uh, I did this thing with Ah, you're smoking weed.

[00:20:18]Oh, the first pothead here has already been revealed. It's no use, it's no use. The birds always reveal themselves, right? No, you can't miss this opportunity.

[00:20:29]Yeah, yeah, it's kind of like that, you see. I'm not going to play because it's kind of a German thing, right? Hey, a German who likes sweet and savory treats.

[00:20:36]I really like it.

[00:20:40]Show us, Rafa. No, but then they'll say I'm promoting a betting site, damn it.

[00:20:47]But I'm not either. So what? So, any betting shop I open here, they're going to say I'm there, they're going to say I'm there. I'm promoting the betting site for free too, right? Anyway, forget about the betting site here, personal PC, but this is the one I like. It's this little game right here.

[00:21:16]You can play with real money or bonus money.

[00:21:26]Oh, there's no way, J.

[00:21:28]No, there isn't. I have 37 cents that I'm not going to gamble with.

[00:21:34]Yes, but this is the one I like.

[00:21:42]Not this one. So if they had paid me to open it up and play, I would have opened it, right? Everyone plays because they want to. You're crazy. Never.

[00:21:51]Yeah. I don't take responsibility, guys, sometimes I don't even take responsibility for the things I do. Imagine, imagine if I were to take responsibility for what a bunch of bearded grown men do with money. That won't work, will it? That's just not possible. It 's not a recommendation at all. I'm just showing that I like it. It's because I play even though I'm snoring, and I don't win, no. I do n't win anything from betting, okay? But the day I'm distributing them, the day I 'm promoting them, you can be sure I'm making money, okay?

[00:22:28]And that's it.

[00:22:32]Oh, soul? No, that's not selling souls, that's selling time, okay? That's not selling your soul. [snoring] Now, if you take the children's money and throw it away, right, my dear? There 's a similar issue there, right?

[00:22:47]People usually get addicted to something, okay, guys? It doesn't necessarily have to be a game. A person will pass the addiction from one thing to another, okay? Either you get addicted to drugs, or you get addicted to gambling, or you get addicted to shopping, or you get addicted to food, or you get addicted to trading, right? Either they're addicted to saving money or they're addicted to sugar. Everyone has an addiction. And what does every addiction hide, right? What does all excess hide? A foul. So, in reality, people use things to try to fill a void of their own, right? But instead of confronting what you're trying to fill with something else, people prefer to blame others. Ah, because I'm only like this because of someone else, right? Ah, because it was publicized.

[00:23:34]Oh, because my friend offered me drugs.

[00:23:37]Oh, because I don't know what, right?

[00:23:39]Funny. No one gets addicted to doing charity work, right? Well, doing charity work doesn't make anyone addicted, right? Nobody's addicted to drinking water, right?

[00:23:54]BC Games, please take note of me.

[00:24:00]Yeah, but some people actually do that, damn it. So, whoever's there is wrong, the one who's playing, the one who's talking about the game is just gay talk. Gay talk. If you lose, oh [ __ ]. If you lose to a little game, son, who are you going to beat? He tells me.

[00:24:25]I'm not even talking about losing in the sense of losing money there, okay? I'm talking about losing. Ah, I feel like playing, but I'm not going to play. I don't have any money, so I'm not going to gamble, right? I need to pay a bill. This money already has a destination. If you lose, okay, because of your own motivation, who are you going to beat?

[00:24:46]And it's people, they don't think about that, do they? [snoring] Don't think about it.

[00:24:52]What's your score prediction for Mexico vs. South Africa? Well, my ideal score would be Mexico getting kicked in the ass by South Africa, okay? And the two of them can blow themselves up in there, because I couldn't care less about the World Cup. [snoring] Yeah, nobody's addicted to working.

[00:25:14]Capitalism is wonderful. Good afternoon, daddy.

[00:25:20][laughter] I opened the casino and rat-a-tat-a-tat.

[00:25:23]I [snoring] spend what's left over. Ah, I put a little money there sometimes. Then you play the lottery, then you put some pressure on the trig, right? Play with the little rabbit over there. The bunny over there is cool too, right? It's a good way to pass the time, folks. But that's it. If you lose, get out. That's not the case. Oh, I lost 50. No, I lost 50. Now I'm going to put in 1000 so I can recover and make 30. That's not how it works. If he wins, he wins. If you lose, you've lost 50 there. He was joking. It's true?

[00:25:56]Go away, move on, okay? Well, life has more to offer.

[00:26:02]Uh, what was I going to tell you?

[00:26:04][snoring] I'm getting to know the numbers 63,311. I'm with, I'm shorted on 64 and 202, right?

[00:26:13]As I was telling you, a spaceship is going to land during one of the World Cup games. So much to do. The guys are going to watch me play soccer, right? Damn, football was good back in Rivaldo's time, wasn't it? During Romário's time. You'll see those half-dozen losers over there running after a ball. No, there were people, there was a woman who ended my marriage, okay?

[00:26:37]Because she caught her husband doing you know what? With a photo of Neymar in the bathroom. Guys, man, sometimes being single is a matter of self- defense, because every single one of those guys is... I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, perplexed.

[00:27:02]You're the one who knows the King's tricks, tell me when to go in and do 10x.

[00:27:07]Regis's timing, [laughs] I play the, I, oh, I usually finish all my chores and go to, I'm not a pro, but I go by bed, you know, usually around 8, right? I'm trying, I want to, I want to stop this [ __ ] of taking my cell phone here, but people are just making fun of me. Oh, but you're not going to tell me it doesn't happen, are you? What if you marry the guy and he turns out to be gay? Hmm. I'm afraid of that, okay?

[00:27:36]Straight talk.

[00:27:39]Yeah, I play after 8, okay?

[00:27:42]After 8 PM, that's when I play, and only when I play, right? Now I'm playing once a week.

[00:27:46]Look over there.

[00:27:48][laughs] Straight talk. Gay talk. Gay talk.

[00:27:53][snoring] So, like, all the women are turning into [ __ ], right? And men are all turning gay, aren't they? And those who aren't prostitutes are cuckolds. And those who aren't gay are cuckolds too. So, there's no way to defend that, right? Oh, I'm not going to do what, am I? Ah, God must be the one who's sad, right? Because he traded this bunch of [ __ ] here for the dinosaur, right? He traded the dinosaur for us to be born. And then we'll go there, right?

[00:28:29]And the guy goes there and does things while thinking about the boy Nei. Oh, you're crazy. Ah, that's why, that's why I prefer my books, that's why I prefer my trading cards, that's why I prefer my video games. And just stay quiet, okay?

[00:28:44]Buying things online sometimes is cool too. There's even a big box that arrived here, look.

[00:28:51]Yeah, and that's it.

[00:28:54]It was a really bad exchange.

[00:28:55]Dinosaur is much better. Although they're still around, right? Because if you think about oil, you know, oil is dead dinosaurs. So if you use petroleum to make plastic dinosaurs, you're practically creating a Jurassic Park, right? Because the dinosaur would be alive inside the plastic, since dead dinosaurs produce petroleum? The question remains. Okay guys, let's go.

[00:29:25]Sorry, I know there's a game on today, so there wo n't be much viewership, and then we can talk more nonsense, right? Because the ones who are here are the real ones, right? Those who are fake, we know who they are. Guys, I don't know if you're familiar with a game called "the floor is lava," okay?

[00:29:42]This silly prank consists of you hitting your friend in the middle of nowhere, in the middle of nowhere, and yelling: "The floor is lava!" Okay? And then people have to do everything they can to avoid stepping on the ground, right? So she's going to climb the supermarket shelf, I don't know, I don't know, I don't know what, okay? So, uh, that's it, and basically the ground is lava, and Bitcoin is doing everything it can to avoid falling. But, but, but according to the reading, and I'm giving you a sneak peek here, uh, I think he won't avoid, okay, giving the floor a little tap. There are still some walking around out there.

[00:30:25]Where? In Acre. I went to Acre, there are no dinosaurs there.

[00:30:32]I'll elaborate further.

[00:30:38]Oh, come on, suck it, dinosaurs. I'm sucking on dinosaurs right now. Yeah, I hope it's the top part of the head, right? [Snoring] Plastic straw. Dinosaur. Soon the little turtles will be putting their mouths on dinosaurs. The question remains. Well, but like this, according to some biologist friends of mine, okay? They don't eat the straw. They use straws to snort powder. Straight talk. It even has a picture. Didn't you see the picture of the turtle sniffing powder? Turtle straw.

[00:31:22]Here, look. Are you going to tell me this is a lie?

[00:31:28]Go ahead, tell me this is a lie.

[00:31:30]Wait a minute.

[00:31:32]No, people who don't know will say that this is artificial intelligence, that this is unreal.

[00:31:43]No, but it's a joke, right? Look at these poor little turtles, right? But folks, there's this thing about the giant turtle here that, if people find out about it, nobody will donate R$ 1 to the Tamar Project anymore, okay? I'll show you. Giant turtle mouth.

[00:32:06]Guys, check this out.

[00:32:11]You would donate, you would donate to the Tamar Project, knowing this now, this here is the mouth of a giant turtle.

[00:32:24]Look over there.

[00:32:32]Man, I wish I could just keep making reaction videos instead of doing analysis. I 'm so tired.

[00:33:03]Leatherback turtle.

[00:33:37]Oh, it can't be some kind of shark-infested business, right? It should be something more like a non-slip surface, you know? Because then the jellyfish won't slip out of the little turtle's mouth, right? It makes sense. That makes sense. But it's terribly ugly. AND.

[00:34:05]Yeah, [laughs] that's it. Oh my, thank God the light is out, it's gone out here. I'm feeling better.

[00:34:15]React once a week. Ah, but then you have to have patience, right? The thing is, the React thing, guys, it really has to be a React thing, right? Because if I start looking for material to just make React videos, well, that would get boring, right? That won't be an organic process; it has to be things I remember on the spot and say, etc. It might even lead to some cuts later on, but who am I to judge in the numbers game, right? For anyone interested in my channel for editing services. Oh dear, I burped, sorry. Okay everyone, let's go.

[00:34:50]Wow, 40 people in the live stream, that's great! Let's do an analysis yesterday for you guys. Uh, that analysis was completed yesterday, okay? This morning I even checked to see if it was there, I think I added something there this morning. I don't remember, I don't even remember what I ate for lunch, guys, to be honest, okay? So, let's have a brief introduction to what happened last week, an analysis of last week leading up to this week, okay?

[00:35:23]So, Bitcoin dropped to $9,000, right? Because the market has completely lost its strength. For those who bought it recently, okay? So, you saw the losses, you saw your investments going into the red, right? Many people decided to sell, thus increasing the issue of realized losses, right? The realized loss refers to people who actually sell at a loss, not unrealized losses, right? We're seeing an unrealized loss, look, the portfolio is in the red, right? But since you didn't sell it, that's an unrealized loss, okay?

[00:36:02]So, the losses ended up becoming more of a reality, okay? They became a reality. Well, and at the same time, okay, folks, in my research, I look a lot at the big investors, right? Yeah, and the institutions too. And they've significantly slowed down the pace of purchases, including companies that usually accumulate Bitcoin in cash, okay?

[00:36:33]And then there's the options market, which is another thing I look at quite a bit when we're making a price projection, uh, based on on-chain trading, right? Uh, uh, uh, the options market is widely used for hedging, right? It's mostly for speculation, but many people use it as protection. Well, and investors, you can see that people are cautious and much more inclined to... They are looking for it, and those who aren't looking are more inclined to do so, you know, to protect themselves from further setbacks, rather than betting on a quick recovery, right, Rafa? The Pentagon was evacuated today, a few hours ago.

[00:37:18]Well, I don't think any more rabbits will come out of that burrow, okay? What had to happen, already happened. Well, after that, no, after all that, folks, after everything that happened and nobody blew themselves up, right?

[00:37:33]They said they were going to bombard Google and all that stuff, and nobody did a damn thing, okay? It's very unlikely that anything else will happen. [snoring] No, I'm not saying it's impossible, okay? But I'm saying it's unlikely. I'm not counting on that. But, but, but tomorrow, tomorrow, if something happens or doesn't happen, we'll talk about it in tomorrow's live stream, okay? So, what's the reason for all this? So, okay, folks, macroeconomics, right? The US dollar has gained strength, hasn't it? He closed the week at 100 points on the DXY index. Well, the DXY index measures the value of the dollar against the major currencies of the world.

[00:38:20]And when the dollar goes up, global liquidity tends to decrease, right?

[00:38:27]So, there's less money left for riskier investments, like stocks or cryptocurrency, right?

[00:38:36]And the interest rates on US government bonds, they also remain quite high, okay? So, the market is still waiting for a firm stance from the American Central Bank. And this scenario tends to reduce the appetite for risky assets for obvious reasons, right? No need to say. So, Bitcoin felt that pressure, okay? It dropped to around 61,700, then it was 59, right?

[00:39:13]So, uh, and all this after a period, right, where it seemed to be operating independently of the macroeconomy, uh, and this old relationship returned: a strong dollar, high interest rates, right, generally mean difficulties for the crypto market, okay? So, for a more consistent recovery, it would be very important to see the dollar weakening, and US interest rates falling. And so far none of those signs have appeared, okay? So, in this case, the wind continues to blow against Bitcoin, okay?

[00:39:53]Let's go.

[00:39:55][snoring] Uh, last week, folks, for those who remember last week's analysis, uh, the indicators already showed, okay, that the May rally was probably just a breather, okay, within a bear market. Yes, and now this drop to 59 [clearing throat] and Bitcoin's difficulty in reacting only reinforces this idea, okay? So, one of the indicators used to measure this, I don't know if I've ever brought it up here before, but I don't think I've shown it here on Degenerados, okay? That's the AV Ratio, okay? He's comparing the current price of Bitcoin to an average price, okay? Paid for by investors who are actually active on the network, okay? That's not your uncle, is he? That jerk who bought three plots of land and 50 bucks worth of Bitcoin and laughs in your face.

[00:41:05]So, today this indicator is showing that Bitcoin is trading at a very large discount, okay? Well, in relation to its historical average, right? So, pay attention. Over the last 2 years, right? Uh, uh, not that one, right? We're not going to discuss a long-standing historical issue. Let's talk about the last few days, okay? In the last few days, folks, this discount has reached one of the most extreme levels ever recorded, okay? So, Bitcoin is relatively cheap when we compare it to previous cycles, right? The problem is that a low price doesn't mean an immediate recovery, even with a historic discount, right? The market is unable to react in a significant way for the reasons I just mentioned earlier regarding macroeconomics, okay?

[00:42:12]Besides the fact that people are struggling to pay the bills, the other thing is that people aren't interested. There is no interest. Ah, but I'm active. But they messed up. Nobody cares, okay?

[00:42:25]So, the market isn't reacting in the way most people expect, right? So, personal fear is still dominating investors. Bitcoin might be in a zone of opportunity, right? Well, it could be an opportunity for you and a disaster for the other person, right?

[00:42:44]Now, don't wait for other people to confirm what you think you need to do. Why? Because it's your decision, right, damn it? Again, either you're waiting for external confirmation, right, or you're waiting for external validation. That won't work, that won't work. You shouldn't even be messing with money, okay?

[00:43:13]Gold Michel Marinheiro, where I know him. And that.

[00:43:25]So, folks, this is another important signal, right? It comes from investors who have recently entered the Bitcoin market, right? The short-term holder of MVRV compares the current price with the average price paid by these buyers, okay? And the total MVRV, uh, it shows the average price paid by all buyers, which is around 54, 55, okay? So, when this indicator falls below one, it means that, on average, this group of people who bought more recently are losing money. So, uh, the investors who bought during the May rally, who fell for the talk of endless rising prices, which many people were talking about, right? They are at a loss of about 17 to 19%. Does this mean they're screwed, that they're going to lose money? Probably not if they hold their hand there, okay?

[00:44:29]So, the 78-82 age range, where there were many, many, many purchases, became a pain zone for the market, okay?

[00:44:42]And then, after that sharp drop that Bitcoin experienced, it managed to stabilize a little. Well, this usually happens when most of the panic selling has already occurred, and those who remain prefer to wait and see what happens next before making a decision. So, the big question now is whether this stability marks the beginning of a recovery or just a pause before further declines, okay? So, what does it all depend on? From the entry of new buyers who are willing to absorb the current supply. Oh, there are no buyers, zero buyers, there's nothing, folks, there is, okay? There is some absorption of supply there, but not enough. I believe in my influencer.

[00:45:35]Well, I think the decline will continue until the end of the year, okay?

[00:45:40]Well, that's analysis, not something that happens, right?

[00:45:53]What happened in my life in March?

[00:45:57]No, I don't remember either because I don't even remember what I had for lunch today. Oh, I haven't even had lunch yet, have I? There's this one too, there's this one too that I couldn't, I just can't eat.

[00:46:07]So, guys, uh, let me... Ah, here it is.

[00:46:11][snoring] Well, no, okay, okay. I thought I had put the same slide up twice. So, folks, if there was any doubt about the suffering of this younger crowd that's come in, the new investors, or at least those with new portfolios, this indicator on the screen puts an end to that, okay? This will measure what percentage of recently purchased bitcoins are still generating profit.

[00:46:44]So, only 3% of investors are in the positive. Over 95% of those who entered the market in recent months are accumulating losses. And this is part of the Mitié, for God's sake, okay? This doesn't mean Bitcoin has failed, it doesn't mean Bitcoin is a terrible asset, okay? I have, I have my serious criticisms of the people who romanticize Bitcoin, but this is part of the game, folks, it's part of the game.

[00:47:14]No, it can't last forever, can it? It happens sometimes, but you can't always expect to buy a business and have a positive portfolio, right? That's because sometimes when I make an entry, especially in trading, right?

[00:47:29]Well, I don't invest all my money upfront, I wait a little bit, you know? It starts coming in installments, and I like to buy a little lower, you know, to reduce the average price. That's really good, isn't it? The same goes for shorts, but anyway. So, the historical average, okay? Just so we can compare, the historical average is 55% for recent investors in profit, okay?

[00:47:51]This type of scenario, folks, it usually happens during moments of strong capitulation, and that's something that hasn't happened yet—capitulation, okay? That's why I also believe that we haven't established a... a definitive low, so to speak, okay? So, what is capitulation? When fear dominates the market, right? Many investors give up their position, but it 's not simply a sale, right? It's the exchange of hands. The money changes hands, okay? It's like, for example, if Réges, Régis, were selling in a panic, okay? And I bought it in his panic, right? So, not everyone is going to do that, right? It's not exactly 50/50, so to speak. Ah, all buyers sell, all sellers sell, and buyers buy. No, that 's not how it works. It's kind of an average, you know, of the market, uh, so we can see this change of hands within the on-chain environment, okay?

[00:48:54]So, the problem is that under these conditions, any negative news can trigger a new wave of selling, okay? That would further increase the pressure on the price and then leave us with no buyers to absorb the supply, right? So, the fact that this indicator exists, okay? This small indicator here doesn't yet show a significant recovery; this sideways movement of Bitcoin that's been occurring in recent days could just be a pause for the market to catch its breath. And it's not necessarily true that the definitive bottom of the fall was at 59, okay?

[00:49:36]But no falling, but it's no use, it's no use being a sled, right? Regis, for example, there 's only one Regis Oliveira with your fingerprint in the world, you're rare too, right? And how much are you worth, how many women are paying to go out with you, right? Me too, I'm scarce too.

[00:50:00]I, I am scarce. Rafael only has one.

[00:50:04]Ask who wants to. Nobody, [laughs] nobody wants it. It's no use being scarce if nobody wants it. And that.

[00:50:15]je je parle parle portugais et mer etecu de truc da eh tão pagando para não sair comigo também. [laughter] No, no. Okay, great. But, but okay, but does anyone pay to go out with you? That 's because you're scarce too. I am scarce. Nobody wants me, not even for free. Imagine paying. [snoring] Uh, so, guys, let me see if I changed the thing here. Let's go here. So, guys, besides the accumulated losses, another very important sign is that recent investors are effectively selling their red bitcoins. So, the indicator that measures this behavior and is displayed on the screen for you shows that the market is very close to this level of capitalization, right? So that's the point where desperation takes over and a lot of people throw in the towel, and then, you know, for those who are waiting for the right moment to buy, this is the moment to buy, okay? You have to buy into other people's panic. Ah, but I don't want to hurt anyone. But you 're not hurting anyone, you're doing good for yourself, right?

[00:51:49]So, uh, there's a detail, uh, bru, b tr is many things, I say many things par and I say many things.

[00:52:06]So, folks, uh, but within this issue of, this issue of, uh, capitulation, okay? Well, there are a few details, right? So, historically, large market funds tend to emerge when capital raising reaches its most extreme levels. So, the outlook right now is pessimistic, I know it 's pessimistic, okay? Don't cry.

[00:52:37]The indicators suggest that the market may not yet have gone through the actual cleanup event that usually exhausts the selling pressure and opens up space for a slightly more consistent recovery. So, Bitcoin is already in a market of strong stress, but all the data we're going to look at regarding this issue of capitalization, the indicators that will show us more or less what stage we're at, the fear could increase even more, okay? Before a solid bottom is formed, because it 's not a matter of people not wanting the market to go up, okay? The thing is, for the market to rise consistently, and for us to get back to good marketing, we need to see a consolidated bottom, okay? Yes, the first 59, okay? The first 59 seemed solidified, right? And then he started acting kind of strange.

[00:53:41]That's not it, he wasn't supported, okay?

[00:53:45]So, that's not possible. Look on the bright side, tomorrow I'll be spending money on tigers instead of a gift for my boyfriend. For sure.

[00:53:59][snoring] No, Mar, Marinete is mine, she's mine, she's my daughter, right? Are you crazy?

[00:54:11]So, folks, it's a capitulation event, right? Well, you need people who can absorb the offer. Who will absorb the supply? Me, Juan, Réges, obviously not, right? I'm not saying this to the poor wretches who are scraping by, but compared to a Black Rock, we're miserable, right? So one of the most closely watched indicators in the market is Coinbase Premium. And he compares the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase, which is a very popular exchange among American investors, okay? and institutions.

[00:54:51]So, when the price of Coinbase gets higher, it usually means that the big players in the United States are buying heavily. But that's changed, right? In recent weeks, the indicator has been negative.

[00:55:05]Institutional demand cooled just as Bitcoin fell to the $ 60,000 range. So the people who should have been strongly embracing the offers did n't, right? And the most important thing here is that in other corrections, these drops used to attract significant buyers, taking advantage of the lower prices. So [snoring] this time the big investors seem to be watching, right, uh, without any hurry to enter the market. And that's how we have to be too, okay? So, in practice, this removes one of the main pillars supporting Bitcoin, because as long as institutional money doesn't return strongly, any recovery may find it difficult to gain traction here, folks, okay? Well, unfortunately that's the reality today; it's a trillion-dollar asset. For you to be making a move on an asset worth 1 trillion, that's still very little compared to other assets, okay?

[00:56:06]You desperately need money, okay? It's not just any five bucks that will affect the chart, okay? So, there's something missing, something's missing, something's missing.

[00:56:21][laughs] [sighing] Depending on the place, the homeless person earns more than us, right? Hey everyone, another group that's been helping to support Bitcoin, right? These were companies that buy Bitcoin for their cash reserves, uh, what are called corporate treasuries, right?

[00:56:41]So, during April and May, some of them were buying more than 500 million dollars a day. It really helped boost the market, didn't it? But that scenario has changed since the beginning of June, right? As Bitcoin fell from around 70 to near 60, these purchases accelerated our trading significantly. Companies are still buying more than they're selling, okay? But at a slower pace.

[00:57:06]So this doesn't mean that these people, these companies, have lost confidence in Bitcoin, okay? Yes, they are adopting a more cautious stance in the face of market uncertainty, okay? People who deal with real money, you know, don't mess around, don't play with money like that, like we see a lot of people doing on Twitter, defending their theories, talking about things passionately, you know, saying things like, "Why would I go without food to buy it, because I do n't know what she's going to buy?" And that's it, folks, those are people who depend on theses, those are people who don't live off the market, okay? You can be absolutely sure.

[00:57:45]So, in practice, the impact is very significant because, in addition to ordinary investors and institutions being much more conservative, companies have also reduced their appetite for investment. Less money wasn't entering the market, or Bitcoin is losing an important source of support, right? Man, recovery here is tough, it's extremely difficult. And another thing too, people's interest, you know? You see, uh, Thursday, 4 pm, whoever isn't working is watching, is watching football, man.

[00:58:24]What will watching football add to the life of a corporal? Ah, but playing on Trig doesn't add that much either, but that's 5% of my day. What do I do with the other 95?

[00:58:37]Yeah, man, I'm studying, I'm looking for ways to make money, you know? I'm looking for ways to improve as a person, I'm working out, I'm going to the gym, I'm dieting, you know? People are more worried, more worried about the damn score, right? More than making money, more than building wealth, more than building a portfolio, [snoring] right? And that's the shitty world we live in today. It's no use, okay? That won't help.

[00:59:15]So, in the last few weeks, a lot of traders have been betting on the price going up with high leverage, right? So, the highest concentration of these bets was between 64 and 70.

[00:59:38]And then, I think I caught this one here, look. Exactly. Here. And then when Bitcoin lost that region, well, what was expected happened, right? A wave of forced liquidations, thousands of long positions were automatically closed by brokers, accelerating the fall, helping to push the price below zero. So, the good news is that a good portion of that excess leverage has already been eliminated, okay?

[01:00:11]The market is much cleaner now, but there's still a consensus here, right? Most of the market here is still betting on an increase, right? We have 67 against 32. And this, to me, is an indication of a decline, okay?

[01:00:33]But the leverage is lower, okay? Well, it 's one thing that 67% of the market is long, but it's another thing that 67% of the market is long, okay? So, uh, uh, the possibility of cascading falls, okay, it gets smaller, but the possibility of falls doesn't disappear, right? So, this doesn't mean the bottom has already been found, it just reduces the short- term pressure here, okay, everyone? So, from here on out, the next movements of Bitcoin, counting from this analysis here, okay, folks, from the closing of the analysis, which in this case was yesterday, okay?

[01:01:22]Well, they're going to depend much more on new buyers, new players in the market, than on forced liquidation, right? cascading liquidation, that kind of business that, you know, even if it's good, depending on which side you're operating on.

[01:01:43]Ah, folks, I'm not going to dwell on the options for too long, okay? Well, because this changes a lot from day to day, but when Bitcoin lost the price range of the last few months and fell towards the lows of February, I think I already mentioned this last week, right?

[01:02:04]Investors sought protection from the most abrupt movements. Then the implied volatility skyrocketed, right? Yeah, that's the indicator you have there. So, these short-term hedges, they were the ones that increased the most cost, right? Contracts for one week, one month have seen a very significant jump, okay? Well, the longer-term ones have also become more expensive, so the concern isn't just about the next few days, you know. So, although the peak of fear has decreased somewhat, the cost of these protections remains high, right? And that's the thing, only the ass interests me, right? [snoring] That's right. So, my friend, everyone's after the World Cup.

[01:02:56]Helio, I would be very careful with SpaceX, okay? Study, study, study a lot over there, because they released the purchase beforehand, okay? And they released a lot of that for retail, right? And I did n't like that very much, okay?

[01:03:15]Actually, I'm actually working here at SpaceX, okay? [snoring] But that's just me, okay? I'm just telling you to do your research beforehand to see if it makes sense for you to buy now or wait a little longer. [snoring] So, folks, these recent drops have really changed people's perspectives, haven't they? So, that's one of the main characteristics of the current scenario, right? So, the options market shows that investors are preparing for more turbulence because it broke through very important support levels, a bullish structure, right? So, that difference in the options really skyrocketed.

[01:04:12]So, this reflects fear and uncertainty, okay? The situation is calming down a bit, but options are still expensive, right? But in practice, the message here is very simple. Investors still don't see a stable scenario, okay? And be prepared for days of high volatility, whether it's upwards or downwards, okay? The point is to make money, no matter where you are, okay? So, if the volatility shows, right, that investors are expecting strong movements in Bitcoin, correct?

[01:04:47]Another indicator needs to reveal which way they are more worried, and they are more concerned about a decline, okay? What is the 25 delta skill here, okay? He compares the prices of put options, which are protection against a downside, with call options, which are betting against an upside, right? And that indicator skyrocketed. So, investors are paying more and more to protect themselves from downturns, right?

[01:05:15]So, uh, this movement was especially intense, okay? What is included in contracts? In the short term, okay? During this recent Bitcoin crash. So, this demand for insurance, let's say, has increased quite a bit, and it's increased so much that the cost of protection has reached one of the highest levels in recent months in this vital industry on the planet, okay?

[01:05:44]So, uh, this here too, folks, is different from the overall high volatility. So, this indicator here makes it very clear that fear has a direction; the market is much more worried about further declines than excited about recovery, okay? So, the major players still see significant risks on the horizon, okay? Because not every dog ​​gets the option to buy something, right?

[01:06:14]So, these people are willing to spend more money to protect their position if Bitcoin continues to fall, okay?

[01:06:24]And here, folks, I don't remember if I've already mentioned this one, yes, here, but this one is widely used by the big players, okay? What is Gama?

[01:06:35]What does Gama say? Wow, that made me so sleepy, man.

[01:06:39]It helps to identify the price region, right, where the operations of brokers and large investors [snoring] can increase market volatility. Well, this behavior here in the last few weeks, uh, in the last few days, actually, it has been completely and clearly defensive.

[01:06:59]Most of the money traded in options was directed towards downside protection contracts, okay?

[01:07:06]So, with this positioning here, now we're going to start talking about price, okay? She created an extremely critical region around 65, right?

[01:07:16]And since Bitcoin is now trading near 63,400, right?

[01:07:23]Well, he's located very close to the area with the highest concentration of positions, so he can amplify market movements, okay? So, there may be sudden fluctuations, okay? Well, if the price gets close to, or even exceeds, that range. I'm not ruling out that possibility, okay? As I told you, I'm even expecting more falls, but I want him to climb up to get my shorts up there, because I'm not going to take them off halfway up, am I? So, the regions, okay folks, that would bring more stability, that would strengthen, that would be more favorable, right, they are well above. As I told you, the bull market structure there was at 76.

[01:08:16]It won't go beyond 76, not even if it hits 75500, okay? Not for me, it doesn't change anything, okay? So, everything I've told you here will tell the same story, okay? One indicator tells the same story as the other, uh, from a different perspective with a different indicator. Bitcoin has already undergone a significant cleanup; what's missing, of course, is a sign that a definitive bottom has been formed. New investors are losing money, and old, established investors are losing money too, okay?

[01:08:53]But there hasn't been a fundraising event yet, okay? So, the pessimistic scenario here, which is my current outlook, is that if the dollar remains strong, US interest rates stay high, and institutional demand doesn't emerge, okay? Bitcoin is going to face a wave of capitulation. Yeah, and I want that capitulation, okay? I want to see that capitulation, because when the market capitulates, it goes up more consistently, okay? He climbs up without much fear, right? Then it's clean enough to climb without fear. Yeah, he makes consistent purchases, right?

[01:09:35]So, any negative news could send Bitcoin way down, right? To reach even lower levels. [snoring] Eh, the optimistic scenario here, okay? Well, it's already undergone a significant cleaning, right? Well, 95% of buyers are at a loss. Well, many of them didn't sell, did they? Everything indicates that many of them won't even sell, okay? So, many sellers have already realized their losses and have already pulled out.

[01:10:05]So, if institutional demand returns, companies resume buying, and the macroeconomic scenario improves, Bitcoin could also build a consistent bottom, okay? Anything outside of this, anything outside of this scenario, that's a bullish scenario, okay? It's a bullish scenario that isn't consistent, okay? So it's a climb from there to fall. And that. But speaking of key areas here for you guys, based on the analysis, I'm like, holy [ __ ], my God, what a son of a gun.

[01:10:40]Well, the support there, right, remains at 59.

[01:10:43]If it loses 59 or 54, the most critical zone will be around 65, okay? A confirmation of strength, okay, everyone? Recovering the 70,000 level requires consistency and volume, especially in the 76,000 range, okay?

[01:11:01]Uh, there's a strong concentration of positions there, which could strengthen a slightly more sustainable upward trend, okay? Okay, so, closing time, alright? A consistent close below 59, okay? This increases the risk of a new downturn. Well, and in case, you know, in case there are consecutive closings below 59, okay? And if we end up losing 54 in the same way, then maybe, then maybe we'll go for 48, okay? That would be my natural cycle bottom, which is what I said at the beginning, right? Back at the beginning of the cycle, I said that I thought I was going to hit 48, but you know, we don't just do the reading, we prepare more or less for that reading, right?

[01:12:05]But we have to know what we're going to do, how we're going to act, if this interpretation doesn't prove correct, right? So, we have several decisions to make there. And that was today's live stream, everyone. Wow, I'm exactly, exactly. Oh my god, I'm definitely going to take a shower and then go to bed.

[01:12:40]I don't drink coffee after noon.

[01:12:43]So that's it, folks. Oh, we also have a live stream tomorrow at 3 PM.

[01:12:48]We're going to discuss this macrogeopolitical aspect further for you, of course, encompassing all the analyses we've done this week, okay? So that everything is perfectly clear in your heads, and in mine too, okay? Because I confess that I don't look at many things when I'm alone, no. And that 's it. I'm going to ask you to leave a like, subscribe to the channel, and when this live stream is over, come back here and leave a comment, it will be great. Ultimately, it helps with my engagement so that this content can be delivered to more people. And I'm extremely grateful that you dedicated 1 hour and 16 minutes of your lives to watch me talk about turtles snorting cocaine and the tiger game. Guys, thank you so much, may God bless Palore, and let's make money, see you later.