Scott Lucas on War & Politics 24: Putin wobbles amid stalemate and Ukrainian counter-attacks

追加: 2026-05-08

[00:00:00]So, US President Donald Trump had a held a phone call lasting more than 90 minutes uh with Vladimmer Putin on Wednesday. This is 12th phone call between Trump and Putin since Trump's return to the White House. So, Kremlin 8 Yuru Shako says Putin proposed a victory day ceasefire. Trump supported this idea. So is Vimemer Putin trying to drag President Trump into forcing Ukraine to toward Dunbas surrender?

[00:00:36]Well, Daniel, that's an interesting question because this call was unexpected between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. But I think the starting point might be Iran rather than Ukraine because a few days ago uh the Iranian foreign minister who had been in Pakistan which is the facilitator of the negotiations with the United States and he was trying to get Pakistan behind an Iranian proposal. uh and then he went to Moscow and so of course he will talk to Russian officials there uh including Putin including uh the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavough trying to get Russia to support Iran uh especially I think over any type of discussions over Iran's nuclear program over Iran's control of the straight of Hormuz. So, it makes sense in a way that that Putin would then speak to Trump and sort of speak on behalf of the Iranians uh while we're in this limbo about whether there will be further talks between the US and Iran or whether the Americans will return to military operations.

[00:01:42]But although we have few details in the press conference afterward, we did have Donald Trump making very confused statements about what had happened. And perhaps the most striking one uh beyond, you know, the clear deception that it is Vladimir Putin who is ready to make a deal, who is close to making a deal. Uh Trump said, uh Ukraine is not winning, only the fake news. uh uh say otherw actually let me take that back. He said Ukraine is losing uh only the fake news say otherwise but then he said he started talking about loss you know the number of ships that have been lost the number of airplanes that have been lost and he was clearly referring back to Iran so it was all very muddled.

[00:02:31]What did that mean at the end of the day? The only clear lines we had was this sort of headline grabber from Vladimir Putin, which is yes, you know, we're the good guys. We will have a ceasefire on May the 9th, our victory day to mark uh the triumph over Germany in World War II. Uh and then Yuri Yushikov saying, I think in the most interesting statement, which is, you know, you know, the Americans need to come on our side. you know, the the Americans need to to put pressure on Ukraine, which I think does tip off what Russia wants, but I'm not sure much of substance was said to be honest with you because I the reality here is is that the the diplomatic the political front is is just suspended right now. I it's suspended right now because of the USIsrael war on Iran and on Lebanon. Um, and the Americans are completely not only tied down, they're just running around like a headless chicken in terms of what they do next to get out of the mess they've gotten into. Um, if Ukraine was like reliant on American support, if it depended on American military and financial support, this would be very serious indeed because clearly that support is not forthcoming. But as we've discussed in the past, Ukraine is no longer so dependent on the Americans. In fact, I think you know Europe is essential here as well as well as others in the international community. So this is one case where I'm going to treat the the Putin Trump phone call unless I see anything different as being a headline call that may make a bit of difference over Iran, but I don't think it means that much with respect to Ukraine.

[00:04:16]>> Let's also analyze some interesting statements. Trump says Putin was ready to make a deal a while ago, but quote, "Some people made it difficult for him to make a deal." Who exactly is he pointing to? US officials, Europeans, Ukrainians.

[00:04:36]I >> mean, who knows? I mean, with Donald Trump, you you pay your money, you take your choice, as we say. But in the past, first of all, we do know that the Russian line is always, "Oh, we're ready to make a deal." And others came in and sabotaged the talks. This is most infamous over uh the negotiations in spring 2022, the Estabbull talks, when uh the Russians in effect in April of 2022, when we thought we might be close to an agreement, they changed the terms. They issued new demands on Ukraine and and Ukraine said, "No, we're not going to take those." But Putin blamed especially the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He blamed the Europeans generally for supposedly being the uh the culprits.

[00:05:25]Here we are in 2026 and I think quite clearly Putin will put words into Trump's ear which is, "Oh no, m Mr. President, we are not the ones who are preventing a deal. It's it's Ukraine.

[00:05:39]It's the, you know, the Zilinski government apparently because they won't surrender. But he probably will say the Europeans are not acting in good faith.

[00:05:49]They probably are preventing Ukraine from accepting our terms. Uh he may be referring to certain specific uh people in this certain European leaders.

[00:06:00]>> So President Trump has probably confused Russia's war against Ukraine with US war against Iran.

[00:06:08]Uh, is Trump handling so many wars that he's confusing one with another?

[00:06:16]>> Donald Trump's just confused in general?

[00:06:18]I mean, and and I'll be nice with him today, but let's just simply say that that this is not someone who's always been known for being on the top of his brief. I mean, he's not someone who really has time for detailed information. That might sound strange for someone who claims to be such a successful businessman, but Donald Trump has always acted on impulse. He's acted almost on instinct and and that's what he does as the president. So, you know, we've known from his first term that he he doesn't like information. He doesn't like full briefings. He likes he maps, charts, brightly colored pictures. That's what he works on. And we also know that he he doesn't in these cases he doesn't know much about Iran. Um a country that you know I've I've worked in, I've taught in, I've got to know it very well. It's a very complex country to try to deal with. And you folks know he does not know much about Ukraine. And and look, let's reinforce that. Also remember that, you know, supposedly, you know, given that Ukraine is so important, they're the ones being invaded. How many visits has the real estate developer Steve Witco or son his Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner paid to Ukraine uh during this invasion since 2022?

[00:07:35]Zero. Right. So what we've got here is a Donald Trump who's getting increasingly angry, increasingly frustrated about a combination of issues.

[00:07:49]um not just the what's happening in the Gulf, not just what's happening in Europe, but also perhaps most importantly that with the American economy, with the failure to establish his grab for power, for example, on immigration.

[00:08:07]And so as he gets a bit older and they get more certain, he gets confused and he just lashes out. Again, what was interesting in this specific comment we referred to is not only that he sort of muddled Ukraine and Iran together, but remember that phrase, Ukraine is losing despite what the fake news media say.

[00:08:26]His primary concern here is is that the media are wrong. The media are never right. And the reason why that's his primary concern is beyond the confusion, beyond perhaps mental decline, it's his ego. You know, it's his ego. And right now his ego is wounded. His ego is wounded because he's not winning the war with Iran because certain leaders, and we may talk about this in a minute, are calling him out and saying that he's erratic and because he's not getting good positive headlines in the American press. and and when a man is wounded and cranky and uncertain and we all had family members who have been like this I think in our holidays instead of celebrating with us it's like oh well look at what crazy Uncle Donald just said gosh maybe he'll calm down in a little bit meanwhile Ukraine struck an oil pumping station 1,500 kilometers uh into Russia near the Ural mountains with drones overnight with President Zilinski call it new stage in the use of Ukrainian long range uh drones. Uh and uh what does it mean from your perspective? And does President Trump know about the strikes into Russia right now?

[00:09:43]>> You got to think even with Trump being so uh confused and so let's say light on information that he will know that Ukraine is successfully counterattacking.

[00:09:56]But he probably starts off with the baseline information which he always resorts to after talking to Vladimir Putin. Oh, it must be Russia that's winning, you know, because Putin just told me that. Um, so Ukraine has to proceed with these attacks, not on the basis of whether they influence Trump anymore, but whether they make a real difference and and what it means for other partners. Again, I think the Europeans first and foremost. So the US is is off the side of this that they have expended their own weaponry uh in the Gulf. They have asked Ukraine at least certain Trump officials to stop attacking the Russian oil installations cuz you know this idea that you know they want more Russian oil on the market to help lower the global energy price as they wave the sanctions on that oil. But Ukraine's not going to listen to that.

[00:10:52]So I I think we focus on what the attacks are doing. And what the attacks are doing is they are limiting any benefit that Russia has gotten from the higher oil price, which is now uh at its highest point since the spring of 2022.

[00:11:09]It's now $126 a barrel. Uh it's reducing any benefit Russia can get from that and from the the waiverss on the American sanctions on their customers because they can't export as much oil. Um, some people question how much of an effect it's going to have on Russia, how much it's going to restrict uh the oil revenues, but I think if you put it together with other economic indicators, you know, the the the Russian economy is not in great shape. Um, and the more that Ukraine attacks key installations supporting the military effort is going to hinder both the invasion and the economy that supports it.

[00:11:45]Let's also talk about the ceasefire proposal from Moscow on 9th of May. Uh actually Trump said that uh he backed the idea and at the same day the victory day celebrations are expected to scale back heavy military parade. Uh with you know uh this year it will be without uh heavy vehicles and other military equipment for the first time since 2007.

[00:12:15]uh actually reportedly due to the fear of Ukrainian strikes into the center of uh Russian um uh Russian Moscow and um does this point to real vulnerability for Vladimir Putin to extent that he's reaching out Donald Trump while unable to fully secure um secure even the uh his capital.

[00:12:43]Well, I I I think if you put it together, it doesn't exactly show confidence, does it? You know, Putin, who who has no interest u in a ceasefire at other times um beyond, you know, whatever limits, and in fact, he didn't really limit his attacks that much over Orthodox Easter. Uh here he's saying, "Oh, can everybody please stop here? Let me have my parade. Oh, but still, I'm not sure about this. So, you know, we're going to keep the tanks out. We're going to keep the artillery out. We will have some war planes fly over. We will have troops marching. But whether it's because all of the armor is at the front line, whether it's because the artillery is elsewhere or because the fear of strikes, it's yeah, it's it's not exactly a victory day in the sense of victory over Ukraine. It it is interesting, of course, that you still will have this attempt by the Putin regime to say, "Look at us. We triumphed over Nazi Germany in 1945. we will triumph over Nazi Ukraine in 2026.

[00:13:45]But that narrative is wearing a bit thin. I mean, it look if if you're a Russian, put yourself in that. In May of 2022, when only a few weeks after launching the invasion, Putin could have come back and said, "Ke is ours." That's one heck of a victory day parade, right? But he couldn't. In 2023, after Ukraine Ukraine regained territory, he couldn't do it.

[00:14:10]He couldn't do it in 24. He couldn't do it in 25 despite having Donald Trump in the White House. And now he can't do it again in 26. So the broader message here is not of victory day for Russia. It's for Russians to accept the fact that this is still going on with a Kremlin which is wondering how much longer is it going to go on and are we going to take damage in the process?

[00:14:37]You know, I also want to continue the topic about this phone call between Donald Trump and Putin. Yura Shakov says that dictator told Trump that Russia holds a strategic initiative in this war and is pushing for Ukrainian forces back and will achieve its goals in any case even if it prepares diplomacy. How much of that reflects the real situation on the ground? And how much is messaging aimed at shaping Trump's position? Is Russia actually negotiation from strength right now?

[00:15:15]>> Blah blah blah blah blah. Okay, sorry not to sound very academic, but if I had a euro for every time that the Russians have talked about major advances breaking through, we have the initiative, I'd be really wealthy and I wouldn't be talking to you today. I be out on an island in the Caribbean. Look, we know, and this is becoming almost a running joke in Russia, that when the uh military head of uh Russia, General Grassimov comes off, he says, "Look, here's my maps. Look, we took this village, we took this village, we took this village." And then Russian military bloggers, not you, not me, but Russian military bloggers go, "Wait a minute, that's not the real situation. He's exaggerating it." And you know, I'm just going to put it down as the basics here.

[00:16:01]And that is that at the start of 2026, Russians rate of advance, which was already very gradual in Ukraine, it haveded. They only took half as much as territory. And then it stopped in March.

[00:16:15]They actually lost a small amount of territory in March. And they were going to have the spring offensive in April.

[00:16:21]And they still haven't made breakthroughs in April. You know, they've they've tried to attack. They've tried to attack in the northeast. They tried to attack or at least try to hold their lines in Zaparisia in the south.

[00:16:32]But it effectively it's a stalemate on the front lines. Everybody knows that.

[00:16:36]Um if if Ukraine is going to break here, and now I'm going to be really honest with you, and I'm going to be honest with with your viewers. If Ukraine's going to break here, it's going to break because of manpower, right? Because Ukraine does not have as many people to put on the front lines as the Russians do. And that's what the Russians are probably telling the Americans. Look, we have so many men. We can do this. We But we know two things. One is we know that a lot of Ukrainians have been willing to sacrifice despite that advantage the Russians have in manpower. And thank goodness they have been willing to sacrifice. But secondly, the change in 21st century warfare, especially around drones, means that having an advantage in manpower is not as great as it used to be. And what we've seen in the last few months is that Ukraine has taken that initiative, especially in drone warfare and in other forms of technology on the front line to counter Russia's manpower. So, how many more men are you going to throw on the front line? You know, that's what the White House should ask the Kremlin. They won't, but that's what they should ask.

[00:17:44]But for right now, it's a stalemate.

[00:17:48]Russia is not winning the war militarily. The question is can they win it politically by getting the Americans on their side.

[00:17:56]>> Let's move to another topic. uh the visit of the King Charles II to the US journalist from the New York Post citing lip reader expert Nicola uh Hickling reconstructed a conversation between Donald Trump and Zikin Charles suggesting Trump said Putin once war and could wipe out populations. Does it expose a sharper private view of Putin that contradicts Trump's public stance?

[00:18:29]>> No, it actually they actually complement the each other in this again confused world of Donald Trump and that is on the one hand Vladimir Putin says I would like peace and I would like a ceasefire and then the same Vladimir Putin says we are winning. we are winning. And then he says, "And if Ukraine doesn't stop, we have powerful weapons that will wipe them out and they cannot stop us from doing that." And so Trump goes to Charles and we know that what King Charles said publicly in his speech was Ukraine's defense is important. It's important to all of us in the free world. We should defend Ukraine. And what Trump has come back and said to him is it's it's not, you know, if you defend Ukraine, Putin can wipe them out.

[00:19:14]you know, he can do this. And it's like, okay, fine. Um, that we're never going to get to a rational, coherent Donald Trump.

[00:19:25]So, we need to stop doing that. The best that you can do here is is try to work around Trump, either with others in the administration, although that's increasingly difficult, or you count on yourself and on your true partners, your true friends. Hi, I'm Scott Lucas. Thank you so much for watching. If you like what you see, subscribe, spread the word, send ideas.